Off topic: Some shocking news today in the Times:

a baseball executive with knowledge of the situation confirmed that Sheffield had asked for a contract extension with the team, but that the Mets declined his request. As a result, Sheffield took himself out of the lineup and briefly threatened to leave the team.

Speaking of the Times . . . 

SG, I’m afraid to tell you that Hack Curry has performed a much more thorough analysis:

The Yankees have the decided advantage in the other two games. On Friday night, Andy Pettitte opposes the fading Brad Penny, who has one victory in the last two months, and, on Saturday, A. J. Burnett faces Junichi Tazawa, a rookie from Japan who was last seen by the Yankees giving up Alex Rodriguez’s game-winning homer to end a 15-inning marathon.

His evidence is much more compelling, as it comprises one pitcher’s wins and the other’s last appearance with Curry watching.

[1] My guess is that it may have been a gambit by Sheffield to try to get his release so he can choose where he finishes the season (not that many teams would want him).

If they win on Friday, I think they will take two out of the three games. I hope Pettitte can continue to surpass my expectations.

I’m a bit confused about the offensive numbers for the “bast lineups.”  What are they?  Career numbers? Season numbers?  Fenway Park numbers. For example, David Ortiz is surely not batting .261/.367/.518 this season, nor do those match his career totals.

I’m a bit confused about the offensive numbers for the “bast lineups.”

Look at the previous post that he linked where he explains it further.  I’m pretty sure it is *updated* projections on what their end-of-season line will look like.  IOW, what they’ve done so far is only part of the story of what they’ll do going forward, which is what we’re most concerned with for the next three games.

You know why Sunday’s game is important?  Cy Young voting, that’s why.  If CC can shut down Boston for 7 or 8 innings and Yanks lineup can knock Beckett out of the game in 4, that will give CC an edge in the Cy Young race…

Look at the previous post that he linked where he explains it further.

I did, but it still is not entirely clear.  You’re right that these are updated projections, so that means—I take it—that one uses preseason projections added to the current player numbers, or some such?

What is up with that CYA predictor?  I would think that Greinke, Hernandez, Halladay and maybe even Verlander would all rank ahead of Beckett and Sabathia.  CYA voting isn’t usually as dumb as MVP voting.  Yes, there’s a bit too much emphasis on wins, but the voters don’t usually worry about all that contending-team-that-isn’t-too-good-even-without-the-player-in-question BS.

What is up with that CYA predictor?  I would think that Greinke, Hernandez, Halladay and maybe even Verlander would all rank ahead of Beckett and Sabathia.

Well as of right now all of them rank ahead of Sabathia (who is 7th), though Beckett is #1 overall.  The predictor is very good; not perfect but very good.  If you go back to 2004 (ESPN now has “results” for 2002 and 2003, but that was before the predictor was published, and also appears incomplete), I think the predictor has correctly nabbed the winner all years but one.  If you take the top *starter* in the predictor anyways, and Neyer has said on several occasions that the predictor seems to over-rank modern closers.

I take that back; it’s been right every year since 2004, if you take top-starter.  For whatever reason, the Cy Predictor on ESPN doesn’t show Chris Carpenter for 2005, and he had about 208 “points” which led his league.

Melky sure does seem to be regressing toward the mean.

[11]

Through August 2nd: (the day he hit for the cycle)

.292/.355/.463/.819 (298 AB)

Since:

.138/.203/.207/.410 (58 AB)

Season:

.267/.331/.421/.752 (356 AB)

Beckett is #1 overall

Right.  That’s the problem.  Most of the “races” that they’ve correctly predicted since 2004 have been pretty much no-brainers.  Except for Colon, of course.  This year’s AL CYA has several equally legitimate candidates, making it somewhat harder to predict.  If there are systematic flaws, they’re more likely to be exposed this time around.  And Beckett still leading after his last performance could be the start of that exposure.  Of course, with the leading contenders al making 7 or 8 more starts before the end of the season, things can certainly change a lot.

You’re right that these are updated projections, so that means—I take it—that one uses preseason projections added to the current player numbers, or some such?

Yeah, basically.  Projections are re-run using the projections entering the season weighted a certain amount and current performance weighted a certain amount.  Weights vary depending on when in the season they are run.  Earlier in the season, I weigh current performance far less.

In a just world, Zack Greinke is the clear Cy Young Award winner right now.  Unfortunately for him, it’s not a just world…

Off topic but does anyone know what MLB steroid testing policy is?  Can a player be randomly tested at any time throughout the year and multiple times?

In a just world, Zack Greinke is the clear Cy Young Award winner right now.  Unfortunately for him, it’s not a just world…

Curious, how much of an edge in a single-number value system (e.g. WAR) is it for someone to be the “clear” winner, do you think?  For example, Grienke right now has 6.7 WAR (by FanGraphs), and Verlander has 6.0.  Grienke is clearly ahead of the current Cy Young “leader” Becket (4.7).  Is he CLEARLY ahead of Verlander?  Is there enough uncertainty for the subjective arguments (Verlander pitching for a contending team, etc) to be valid?

W/o any hard evidence right now (I’m eagerly awaiting part 2 on a discussion of uncertainty in run-estimators on HBT), I’m guessing over 1 WAR is clear who is having the better season.  between .5 and .99 WAR is fairly clear but uncertain, and between 0 and .49 WAR is unclear.  That’s just my swag.

Curious, how much of an edge in a single-number value system (e.g. WAR) is it for someone to be the “clear” winner, do you think?

Yeah, I’d say look for a difference of at least 10 runs or one win.  These numbers are all less precise than we probably think they are, although it depends on the metric.  Something like WAR which uses defense may have an even bigger margin of error.  But if you can demonstrate that a player is ten runs better than another using a fairly accurate system, you’ve probably done a good job of showing he has an edge.

That being said, I don’t think Cy Young should necessarily go to the pitcher with the best WAR.

Can a player be randomly tested at any time throughout the year and multiple times?

Yes.

The problem with the MLB (and NFL, NHL, NBA, etc) testing program is that there is no off-season testing.  International sports governing bodies test randomly both in and out of competition.  Without off-season testing, a smart doper can bulk up during the off-season and taper in plenty of time to pass any in-season piss tests.

“Off topic but does anyone know what MLB steroid testing policy is?  Can a player be randomly tested at any time throughout the year and multiple times? “

You wouldn’t happen to be referring to a certain “careless” large headed player up North who has suddenly and quite miraculously regained his power and bat speed?

The recent Tex/Jeter MVP discussions and the idea floated of CC winning CYA make me realize that I dislike Yankees winning awards deserved by other players as much as I dislike them getting robbed of awards they deserve.  (Whcih is not to say that I care a whole lot in either case.)

Umm, he suddenly and miraculously got better in June, and then came back to earth in July.  He’s hitting .200/.333/.450 in August.  That’s still a huge improvement over his first two months, of course, but it always seemed pretty unlikely that he was going to continue to be that bad.

Well, first of all, it was joke. Its all relative when you are talking about a guy hitting that poorly. But when you go from dead to hitting for average and power that quickly with noticeable quicker bat speed, it does make you wonder…Just look at August 14th on.

The problem with the MLB (and NFL, NHL, NBA, etc) testing program is that there is no off-season testing.

The NBA does, however, test during the postseason.

According to an NBA source, [Rashard] Lewis failed one drug test during the playoffs last season and was so surprised by the outcome he asked to be tested again during the Finals. Lewis also failed that test.

Does MLB do the same?

I know it was a joke.  But why should I just look at anybody’s last five games?  Look at August 1-13: .114/.204/.136; I’m going to go way out on a limb and guess that he wasn’t really dead and this isn’t an unstoppable zombie that we’re seeing now.

Does MLB do the same?

I think so.  Didn’t Romero test positive during the playoffs last year?

[26] According to this article, Romero says that he was “tested on Aug. 26 and Sept. 19.”

Thanks for clearing that up.  Looks like they don’t test during the playoffs, at least according to wikipedia:

During season play (beginning with Spring Training through the end of the Regular Season), all players will be randomly selected for testing at unannounced times for steroids once. The office of the Commissioner has the right during the season to administer additional random testing at unannounced times for steroids. The number of tests and the timing and schedule of these tests is determined by HPAC, and players are subject to any number of additional tests during the regular season.

According to Pete Abe, number of games played is considered when voting for MVP. Probably won’t hurt Mauer though.

That being said, I don’t think Cy Young should necessarily go to the pitcher with the best WAR.

Oh, I agree.  Same discussion (though I think it ended up being with myself!) I had yesterday with MVP.  I think you use “the numbers” (e.g. WAR) to come up with a list of players that are worthy, and then after that you can whittle it down using more subjective arguments.  I’m not sure if there is an “objective” definition yet of what “close enough” to the top spot is (like 1 WAR), so it can be a little subjective for you to pick out your range too.

The problem with the MLB (and NFL, NHL, NBA, etc) testing program is that there is no off-season testing.

Not true.  The NFL does test in the off-season.

The NFL conducts year-round testing. Seven players per team per week are tested at random during the season, including the playoffs. There is periodic testing in the off-season, and every player is tested for steroids.

I haven’t found the “official” policy yet, but some other stuff I’ve found indicates the testing is less stringent in the off-season.  I think I’ve read somewhere before that you only get tested once (don’t quote me on it) in the off-season, so if you get tested in February you know you’re clear until camp starts.

Our ptiching has been great and given the pitching matchups we should be able to win at least two out of three.  Our hitting has not been firing on all cylindars since about game 2 against Boston last series.  Arod and Po have been the main culprits and if either one wakes up this series we could blow them away.

Why does Coke get the inning over Robertson in the projection of tonight’s game?

Arod and Po have been the main culprits and if either one wakes up this series we could blow them away.

A lot has changed on our end as well since then. But whatever, I don’t want to get into predicting single baseball games.

These projects are way off.  Boston is the best team in baseball.  We’ll be lucky to excape with 3 runs over this series.

Is Gardner getting back soon? It looks like Melky could use a few days off in CF.

We’ll be lucky to excape with 3 runs over this series.

If we score 1 in each game, and shut Boston out, I’m perfectly fine with that.

Is Gardner getting back soon? It looks like Melky could use a few days off in CF.

Depends how you define “soon”.  He’s supposed to see the doctor I think Monday, and if everything goes well I’m pretty sure he can start rehab right away.  I believe they are saying “7-10 days” of rehab, though I’m sure they could shorten that depending on certain factors.  So probably a week or two until he’s back.

We’ll be lucky to excape with 3 runs over this series.

I’ll be disappointed if we don’t get a three-spot on Penny in the 1st inning…

If we score 1 in each game

If we hold you to 1 in each inning pitched by Penny, I’ll be happy with that.

A surely-entirely-insufficient web search seems to suggest that a player’s WAR is based upon statistics that are not park adjusted.

That seems like a very, very, very big flaw.

(Spoken from way out on the limb:) Tell me why I’m wrong!

Damn smileys.

Pete Abe headline:

Is it too late to vote Jim Rice out of the Hall of Fame for being a no-class idiot?

Oh, I don’t know, PA, he seems a pretty good candidate for that particular hall.

[35] So much typo fail.  So few words.  I’ll be laying off the coffee this afternoon.

[38] Wow, I didn’t think it was that serious.  They made it sound like he just jammed his thumb when it happened.  It feels like Gardner hasn’t played in months.  Or maybe that’s just me.

[40]I think Penny has shut the Yankees out so far this season.  When I read things like that I think, “he’s due to come back down.”  Of course A.P. has been pitching very well this last month.  So this has the potential to be a… let’s say… “interesting” match up.

Pete Abe smacks down Jim Rice:

According to the Associated Press, Red Sox Hall of Famer Jim Rice spoke to players at the Little League World Series today and said that today’s major leaguers are too focused on individual goals and getting big contracts.

“You see a Manny Ramirez, you see an A-Rod, you see Jeter … Guys that I played against and with, these guys you’re talking about cannot compare,” Rice said.

Derek Jeter? Really?

Reality to Jim Rice: Jeter was at the center of four World Series champions (four more than you were) and has never once been accused of being anything but a team player. You owe him an apology.

Meanwhile, what is Little League Baseball thinking inviting an insolent jerk like Jim Rice to speak to kids? Albert Belle must have been busy.

[43] Sorry Pete, I didn’t see your post when i hit submit.

I just did the title, you did the content, Rich.
Completely different posts, as far as I’m concerned.

I’m conflicted about this report.  On the one hand, Jim Rice is both
overrated and something of a jerk.
On the other, the inclusion of Jeter just seems like his mouth racing
ahead of his mind, listing prominent current players - which can happen to anyone, no big deal.

[45] Seems to have gotten Rob Neyer all fired up, too.  I know when I was 13 I wanted nothing more than to hear grandpa wax poetically about the way things used to be. 

What a jackass.  Is it really that hard to just say, “follow your dreams kids and don’t listen to what the doubters say.  Eat your wheaties, give 110%, take it one pitch at a time, etc.”, listen to the applause, walk out and collect your check?

Stay in school.

Don’t do drugs, they make your balls shrink.

Wasn’t Hairston supposed to get a start in CF? Or did that happen?

I would love to put out a house money lineup on Sunday.

Why does Coke get the inning over Robertson in the projection of tonight’s game?

I assumed Coke will be used since Boston has several key lefties in their lineup, but I forgot to do the same for the other two games.  It shouldn’t make a ton of difference either way, the difference in their projections over one inning is around .27 runs, but if used for platoon advantage it’s probably less than that.

A surely-entirely-insufficient web search seems to suggest that a player’s WAR is based upon statistics that are not park adjusted.

Depends on the WAR.  Mine is park-adjusted, and I’m pretty sure Baseball Prospectus’s is as well.

A surely-entirely-insufficient web search seems to suggest that a player’s WAR is based upon statistics that are not park adjusted.

“WAR” just means Wins Above Replacement.  I believe there are several different versions of WAR out there (pretty sure Tom Tango had the “first”).  Sean Smith uses one at baseballprojection.com, Fan Graphs has one, etc.

If I look at how FanGraphs does theirs.  They *start* with non-park adjusted wOBA, but then (apparently) do an adjustment on it for park before adding that number into WAR.  So FanGraphs anyway does adjust for park.  But for a particular WAR calculation, I can’t tell you for sure.

The (or a) report on Gardner.

SG beat me by many minutes.  I have to start memorizing the URL for every site I’ve ever been to…

A-Rod moves off SS to join a winner and he’s just chasing the #s?

Thanks, SG & Mike K.!

(And my faith in you guys was never even slightly shaken.)

What a jackass.

Yeah, somebody should tell Rice he’s already in the HOF and can stop promoting himself as being better than his, er, betters.  If there’s one current player - if I could choose only one - to want my son to use as a role model, it would be Jeter (mine was Mattingly).  There are lots of other players I’d be happy if he emulated (to a point), but if I had to pick one it would be the Captain.

I love how players wearing baggy uniforms and having dreadlocks was worthy of scorn.  Huh?

[40]I think Penny has shut the Yankees out so far this season. 

Er, yeah, I think it’s safe to say that June 11 was his high water mark. His numbers since the ASB are a searing indictment against the quality of play in the NL West from 2005-2007.

As for Rice, he’s not a smooth-speaking guy. For Pete Abe to pick him apart over this is really stupid. Rice does studio work at NESN, I’m sure he’s very familiar with Jeter’s career, including the good parts.

Judging from the outside of course, but I don’t think Jeter has performed his captainly duties well or even unselfishly.  Isn’t Mo a better model?

Judging from the outside of course, but I don’t think Jeter has performed his captainly duties well or even unselfishly.  Isn’t Mo a better model?

Eh.  Mo would probably be my #2 (I said if I could pick only one).  Most of the Jeter, “not being a good captain” comes from the ARod stuff.  IIRC, Jeter had ARod’s back this winter with all the steroid stuff.  Maybe some people wanted even stronger statements, but…and the stuff with fans booing…well, I know you’ve (rilke) been against trying to read people’s minds before for what their intent was, so how do you know if Jeter’s (non)statements were selfish?  Mostly it is media reports, and maybe Torre saying it was.

Someone should tell Pete Abe to watch his back.  I hear this Rice guy is to be, “feared.”

[58] Yeah, that’s the kind of nitpickery that makes someone look real dated and curmudgeonly. 

To be fair, I’m not a huge fan of the gigantic uniforms some of these guys wear.  It seems like it would hurt movement more than help it.  I can’t remember the last time I saw a track and field event where the runners were wearing MC Hammer pants.

UPDATE, 3:48 p.m.: Jeter on Rice’s comments: “I didn’t know I was like that. That’s a first for me.”

Jeter said he had never met Rice other than to say hello.

What? I’ve never heard teammates or coaches say negative things about Jeter as a captain. I know guys like O’Neill, Cone, and Bernie have talked about how he was already a leader back in ‘96. Straw, Tino. More recently, Cano.

It always bugs me when people who have never been in the clubhouse rely on their own perceptions of players. Like Swisher being a dumb clown, or Alex being phony, or Posada being the true captain, etc. (Not saying any of those things are false- I have no idea- just that it’s dumb to assume it’s true because it seems that way or because it gets parroted around the blognets.)

As for Rice, he’s not a smooth-speaking guy. For Pete Abe to pick him apart over this is really stupid.

I’m a little annoyed that Rice is doing this in front of Little Leaguers.  I mean, what’s the place you are trying to talk about good sportsmanship?  Little League.  How does trying to lift your generation of players above the generation that your audience follows fit good sportsmanship?

If Rice had been invited to a new draftee orientation (like they do in football) and made those statements, I would have been fine with that’s Rice being Rice.

SSF, the phrase “Rice is not a smooth-speaking guy” seems keyed (consciously or otherwise) to presuming that he’s actually not a jerk, but doesn’t speak well.
I think that’s a much more plausible argument vis-a-vis A-Rod than Rice.
And it’s not all that believable vis-a-vis A-Rod.

And - Mike K., when it comes to character (as opposed to statistics), you have to guess.  Make the best guess you can.  If you don’t guess, you quite literally cannot choose a role model.  As you point out, we don’t know what’s going on in their minds.

Rilke’s call may be subjective (I imagine he expects us to realize that, given the context), but it’s an entirely reasonable subjective judgment.

I have to start memorizing the URL for every site I’ve ever been to…

You do realize that your browser can remember them for you, right?

Personally, I tell my son that it’s fine to use Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera as a role model for how to approach the game and how to project yourself in a public setting, but to always remember that we don’t really know a damned thing about what these people are really like as human beings, and his role models for that sort of thing should be people who are actually involved in his own life.  And yes, I tell him this in a long, rambling, semi-coherent run-on sentence.  And I say “damned.”

I don’t need to have this kind of conversation with my daughter, since she’s already absolutely perfect in every way.

“Most of the Jeter, “not being a good captain” comes from the ARod stuff”

I wasn’t even thinking about this spring, but the Giambi-wrt-A-Rod reactions back in the day seemed pretty clear - more it’s a near-complete lack of visible leadership.  Maybe I missed a statement from him to the effect that “I was sorry to see private clubhouse matters aired in public” following the Torre book and article, Mussina on Pavano, etc., or any personally risky stance he’s taken in support of the team.  Maybe that’s not a captain’s job, or appropriate circumstances never came up, or he misapprehends the former points.  In which case I’m wrong - add it to the long log file.  But beyond being an extremely valuable long-term Yankee and studiously avoiding controversy, I don’t know what makes him a model.

I agree that it would have been in the team’s best interests if Jeter had been as supportive in public of Alex as he was of Giambi, and I was disappointed that he wasn’t. But in fairness, to Jeter, he has occassionally told the media that they don’t know what goes on behind closed doors, so it’s possible, if not likely, that on other issues, he has exerted his will. He implied as much last season when he was asked if he was dealing with Cano’s alleged work ethic issue.

More Pete Abe:

UPDATE, 4:06 p.m.: Marte is in fact here. Could be bad news for Ramiro Pena.

This wall of water should hit Fenway by gametime or slightly thereafter…

I’m a little annoyed that Rice is doing this in front of Little Leaguers.

And my point is, was he just babbling? Was he really throwing Jeter and ARod under the bus, or was he having a freewheeling conversation about the game where he was generally representing the sport well but kinda fumbled this one phrase? Did Pete Abe report on the entire conversation, or did he cherry-pick one half-sentence and decide it was enough to write a foaming rant? This whole brand of journalism does little for me. Rice isn’t an elected official just because he’s in the HOF. And I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that his underlying point about players’ relationships to statistics having changed is actually true.

he’s actually not a jerk,

Bah, who knows…

SSF - we’re guessing, true, but not in a vacuum.
We don’t have no information.  We don’t know nothing.
It’s not as if we’re guessing about the personality of, I don’t know, say - Xeno.

In this case, I’m sure he was just babbling, and I wouldn’t have paid it much attention, but if we ARE to pay attention - people babble differently, and his list is suggestive and not very bright.

“He implied as much last season when he was asked if he was dealing with Cano’s alleged work ethic issue.”

I missed that, but I’d be unhappy to see him making such an implication (though fine with him calling out Cano).  How about the information-free following: “Robbie’s won a lot of games for us, and his great talent and slick fielding, which makes everything look easy for him when he’s playing well, might make some people think he’s slacking when he gets into a slump as we all do.  Everyone on this team works hard - we would take care of that in the clubhouse if there was a problem, but guys who come to the Yankees come to play.”

[73] What sentient person has “a freewheeling conversation” with Little Leaguers, given their impressionable age?

[76] Brett Pedroia.

[75] This is the kind of reporting that I recall reading about the issue:

While Jeter is too guarded to say if he had confronted Cano, he gave an interesting answer about how he is perceived. Jeter has a reputation for being a leader by example and for not being especially vocal.

“I always hear the same thing about myself, ‘He doesn’t get in somebody’s face,’” Jeter said. “Well, how do they know? How does anybody know? Unless I was to tell someone or unless he was to tell someone, nobody is going to know. And you don’t do things for the camera.”

So if Jeter did verbally challenge a teammate?

“I ain’t going to tell you about it,” Jeter said. “And if I yelled at someone, you think the person I yelled at is going to tell you? It’s always baffling because people think they have this perception of how someone is. I don’t do things for the camera. There are people like that.”

But seriously…

[73] I wouldn’t put it by Pete Abe to do something like that, but I’d have to imagine Rice was at least working off of some script and that he probably wanted to mention some of the follies of modern day players.  I don’t doube he probably flubbed it a bit, but he probably should have pumped the brakes before he started to name names.

Rich—what?! Isn’t this what ballplayers do all the time? The kids sit in a circle and ask the old ballplayer questions? Can’t imagine what you’re getting at; I certainly wasn’t implying he was talking about manly things with them.

He urged players to have respect for their coaches, teammates and parents, and to concentrate on improving the weakest part of their game. Rice said he had to put in extra work to improve his fielding.

He’s history’s greatest monster!

Seriously, I am agnostic about whether Rice is a jerk or not; plenty of people have said so, though when Dan Shaughnessy says something I have a natural reaction to believe the opposite. In any event, Rice probably isn’t a great baseball ambassador, but he’s not the first ballplayer who, 20 years into retirement, comes off as a bit of a crank. The only part of this that’s at all interesting is the demonstration of what journalists get hot-and-bothered about. And it’s not pretty.

[80] No, my point is that I would expect a former player, when talking to kids, to discuss what the players and managers in his era were like, e.g., who scuffed the baseball, who corked their bat, rather than trying to inflate his era by dissing the way current players approach the game, and lumping two acknowledged PED users with one who, it is widely acknowledged, avoided that temptation.

That weather map looks horrifying. Mother nature can’t bear another Penny start either, apparently.

[78] That sounds fine by me.  I’m a very close reader in some contexts but here it would just be Kremlinology.

Lumping Jeter into the roids talk isn’t smart, if that’s what happened. But I think people have to understand that Rice spent 15 years being snubbed by the Hall voters, in large part because his numbers paled next to more recent ones which, on further review, were inflated by steroids. He has a BIG chip on his shoulder about this. It’s a bit sad, but also not hard to understand.

Rice has worse #s than the guy across the outfield from him, plus he didn’t have his #s deflated by pitching to Clemens and Co.

[85] I think I was a bit confused.  The naming names was more about “big contracts” and chasing the dollar.  My mistake.  The point remains though that he probably shouldn’t name people specifically.

Well, if you’re complaining about the state of modern baseball, Jeter certainly isn’t a good example.

[85]
I understand the chip, but that doesn’t make the chip justified.
His numbers, when park adjusted, pale not only vs. later eras.
There’s anti-RS talk in that, it’s just the numbers, ma’am.