Friday, September 5, 2008
The Curious Case of Robinson Cano’s Defense in 2008
We all know that Robinson Cano’s offense this season has been a big disappointment. Because of his dreadful start (.216/.263/.319 over 228 PA), it’s tough to see that he’s been decent since June 4th(.303/.331/.469 over 328 PA).
Cano was projected to have wOBA of around .344 this season using the aggregate of several projection systems. His .251 wOBA over his first 228 PA is more than three standard deviations below what we should have reasonably expected. Even his relatively better hitting since has been below expectations, althought that’s probably partially because of the lower run environment of the 2008 AL. Also, as I looked at a little while back, Cano may have been slightly unlucky based on his batted ball types.
Anyway, this post is supposed to be about Cano’s defense so enough about that.
According to zone rating, Cano’s defense had steadily improved over his first three seasons, as he went from a ZR of .816 in 2005 to .846 in 2007. I had him projected to be about a +5 defender this year in terms of runs saved above the average second baseman and through his first 89 games of the year he looked even better than that.
As you can see, Cano’s been a butcher over the last 48 games, making 21 fewer plays than an average 2B over 182 chances, and dropping his overall defense from +8 runs saved to -8 runs saved. Here’s how that looks graphically.
How bad is a zone rating of .692 over 422 innings? I don’t have the data to look at splits for all years since 1987 (when zone rating was first introduced), but I can look at the full season data. Here’s a list of every 2B who played at least 300 innings in a season and had a ZR lower than .750.
So no 2B in a season where they played over 300 innings has ever been as bad as Cano has been over this recent stretch. That’s pretty bad.
It’s not my place to do any armchair psychoanalysis about the reasons for this. I’ve seen people calling Cano lazy and unmotivated and everything else, but HTF do they know? And if the new contract is to blame, why was his defense so good at the start of the year?
We should expect better from Cano next year on both sides of the ball, because we have a bigger sample size that shows he’s better than he’s been this year, but this year has put a serious damper in his going-forward projections.
Update: Added a plot of chances/missed chances by week as requested by rilkefan:
Comments
Clay, you do realize what the next logical step must be: get a pit bull (lipstick-free) and name him Gary.
Interesting fact, courtesy of the YES booth:
Moose has hit 8 batters so far this year, which is a career high. 6/8 have been Red Sox.
Coincidence? I think not.
moooooooooooooose
The only thing left to root for is three more wins for Moose.
If Moose wins 19 I’ll always remember that Delmon Young homer. bleh
Jeter ties Babe Ruth on the Yankees’ hit list. Whoop-dee-doo.
Shiiiiite*. Don’t blow this, Mr. Moose.
*That’s Italian for “shit”, btw.
Making tandoori chicken on the ole Weber at this time. Guy that owns the 7-11 around here and I got to talking about grilling a couple of weeks ago and we traded some recipes. Am very excite.
Go Moose. Get him some more runs WOE.
Woet a surprise.
I hate this team.
2 run shot here by Nimster. Callin it now.
I meant 3 run shot by stache.
woeeeeee
Fucking idiots.
Urge to kill rising.
So, 4th place is a real possibility this year. I really didn’t see that coming.
If Moose wins 19 I’ll always remember that Delmon Young homer. bleh
Doesn’t look as if you’re going to have to worry about that.
Moose picked the wrong time to have a shitty game.
What was that, a 4-pitch inning?
Disgusting. Simply a disgusting effort all around today.
Meanwhile in the AAA playoffs, Phil Hughes has thrown 5 innings so far against Pawtucket:
5IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 9(!!!)K
By the way, did you guys hear that every time Lopez hits a HR it’s a new career high? Because if you didn’t, Kenny is happy to tell you, like, 50 times.
As for sleeping, I like to mix my Xanax into a milkshake. It’s calming.
I don’t really like to wish ill on anyone personally, but I’m glad this guy is having a bad year. I just can’t live in a world where someone named “Putz” is one of the best closers.
Meanwhile in the AAA playoffs, Phil Hughes has thrown 5 innings so far against Pawtucket:
5IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 9(!!!)K
Hughes is really racking up the Ks in AAA. I like that a lot.
Ehn, to hell with it.
8IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 11K. He threw 75/94 pitches for strikes and retired 14 of the last 15 batters he faced. Don’t know if he’s done or not, but not too shabby regardless.
so… does he ever make it back to the Yankees this year? I’d like to see him again.
Probably depends if Scranton advances in the playoffs or not. If they do, he’ll have another start. If they are eliminated….who knows? By all accounts, he was brilliant today, and has been improving steadily. I’d like to see him again this year also.
Scranton advances to the finals on a walk-off 2-run homer by (who else?) Shelley Duncan.
BRADY OUT FOR THE YEAR!
:banana: :banana:
:banana: :banana:
:banana: :banana:
:banana: :banana:
:banana: :banana:
:banana: :banana: :glombi:
Oh come on, it’s not nice to gloat over the misery/injury of others.
...unless those others are Patriots and their insufferable fans.
Carry on.
Where did you read that he’s out for the year, though? I haven’t seen anything aside from “they’re waiting on the test results”.
Oof, that play had shades of LT on Joe Theissman in it.
(via a comment in RAB)
Crap, I didn’t mean to post the picture itself.
Sorry!!!
Ouch.
I liked Brady better when he was healthy and getting smacked around by the G Men this past winter.
My favorite SB ever. Go Jets.
Chicken was good. Not great.
holy shit that looks nasty
Wait, I can’t figure that picture out. If its what I think it is, something is pointing the wrong way.
If its what I think it is
It’s what you think it is.
Ow.
Angels released Jeff Kennard, the guy we sent over for Jose Molina. Funny.
Angels released Jeff Kennard, the guy we sent over for Jose Molina. Funny.
What’s funny is that some people thought Jeff Kennard was the next Scott Shields and it was a mistake to trade him.
I, for one, remain unimpressed by Phil Huggies.
But hey! 7-11 talk - Wow.
unless those others are Patriots and their insufferable fans
In one of my Fantasy leagues, I drafted Brady in the first round. And this year we’re doing a keeper-league. As you can imagine, my fortunes in that league have gone way down…Jamarcus Russel is my backup!
You know what the Yankees need?
More Cowbell.
I, for one, remain unimpressed by Phil Huggies.
Well, here is
Chad Jennings’s writeup of the game. He also notes in a previous article that Hughes’s fastball was normally sitting 92-93, touching 94. Basically, right where we expect his velocity to be.
So pretty much, this last game at least he was everything he was advertised to be. He’ll probably get a start this week in the Finals, and then be called up to NY to start a game or two before heading out to the Fall Leagues.
“Because of his dreadful start (.216/.263/.319 over 228 PA), it’s tough to see that he’s been decent since June 4th(.303/.331/.469 over 328 PA).”
Yeah, well it’s tough to see because he hasn’t actually been decent except for one week following the all-star break.
April 1 - July 17: .246/.285/.358
July 18 - July 26: .514/.528/.857
July 27 - Sept. 9: .242/.274/.389
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