The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:

Friday, September 5, 2008

The Curious Case of Robinson Cano’s Defense in 2008

We all know that Robinson Cano’s offense this season has been a big disappointment.  Because of his dreadful start (.216/.263/.319 over 228 PA), it’s tough to see that he’s been decent since June 4th(.303/.331/.469 over 328 PA).



Cano was projected to have wOBA of around .344 this season using the aggregate of several projection systems.  His .251 wOBA over his first 228 PA is more than three standard deviations below what we should have reasonably expected.  Even his relatively better hitting since has been below expectations, althought that’s probably partially because of the lower run environment of the 2008 AL. Also, as I looked at a little while back, Cano may have been slightly unlucky based on his batted ball types.

Anyway, this post is supposed to be about Cano’s defense so enough about that.

According to zone rating, Cano’s defense had steadily improved over his first three seasons, as he went from a ZR of .816 in 2005 to .846 in 2007.  I had him projected to be about a +5 defender this year in terms of runs saved above the average second baseman and through his first 89 games of the year he looked even better than that.



As you can see, Cano’s been a butcher over the last 48 games, making 21 fewer plays than an average 2B over 182 chances, and dropping his overall defense from +8 runs saved to -8 runs saved.  Here’s how that looks graphically.



How bad is a zone rating of .692 over 422 innings?  I don’t have the data to look at splits for all years since 1987 (when zone rating was first introduced), but I can look at the full season data.  Here’s a list of every 2B who played at least 300 innings in a season and had a ZR lower than .750.



So no 2B in a season where they played over 300 innings has ever been as bad as Cano has been over this recent stretch.  That’s pretty bad.

It’s not my place to do any armchair psychoanalysis about the reasons for this.  I’ve seen people calling Cano lazy and unmotivated and everything else, but HTF do they know? And if the new contract is to blame, why was his defense so good at the start of the year?

We should expect better from Cano next year on both sides of the ball, because we have a bigger sample size that shows he’s better than he’s been this year, but this year has put a serious damper in his going-forward projections. 

Update: Added a plot of chances/missed chances by week as requested by rilkefan:

--Posted at 1:02 pm by SG / 143 Comments | - (127)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

IT’S LARRY BOWA!1!!!!!!!1!

Could you plot missed chances/chances per week?  Maybe point us to a few games with a lot of misses?  I wonder if there was a change in the pitching environment, or if maybe he tweaked his hamstring (though why would he be hitting better?), or if Bad Andy/Rasner/… means Bad Cano.

It’s not my place to do any armchair psychoanalysis about the reasons for this.  I’ve seen people calling Cano lazy and unmotivated and everything else, but HTF do they know? And if the new contract is to blame, why was his defense so good at the start of the year?

There are probably several reasons why his defense has been so poor recently.  I don’t doubt one of them is just the SSS problem, one may be the inherit problems with ZR (treating all ground-balls the same), which shows up more during the small sample.  Perhaps there is/was a minor injury involved.  Who knows what else?  I think he’s definitely had some concentration lapses.  Maybe he’s been thinking too hard about his fantasy football draft?

Definitely going forward I expect him to be back on track.  The MSM will always say Pedroia is better than Cano, but hopefully next year Cano is back on track for being the better of the two.

Could you plot missed chances/chances per week?

Sure, give me a few minutes.

Maybe point us to a few games with a lot of misses?
Here are the games with more than 2 missed chances.  If we remove these chances his ZR goes to .841, which would be the equivalent of +9 plays made, +8 runs saved.

Date        Missed Chances
31
-Jul-08 (Pettitte)    5
10
-Apr-08 (Pettitte)    4
18
-Jul-08 (Mussina)    3
1
-Aug-08 (Pontoon)    3
7
-Aug-08 (Mussina)    3
27
-Aug-08 (Pontoon)    3
1
-Sep-08 (Pontoon)    3

The MSM will always say Pedroia is better than Cano, but hopefully next year Cano is back on track for being the better of the two.

Yeah, this could be Pedroia’s version of Cano’s 2006, at least that’s what I’m hoping.

I’ve seen people calling Cano lazy and unmotivated and everything else, but HTF do they know?

Not that I necessarily agree that it’s an issue, but Robinson seems to enjoy the Washington Heights and Hoboken nightlife pretty frequently. I’d imagine that these things get a pass when you’re an all-star, but just like Jeter heard questions about his motivation in 2002 because of his partying, I’m guessing that Cano is playing poorly so people are using it as a reason for his poor play.

Yeah, this could be Pedroia’s version of Cano’s 2006, at least that’s what I’m hoping.

Pedroia is all batting average and home park, nothing to worry about. He’s not a .330 hitter and he’s not all that good if he isn’t. I doubt his numbers are this good by the end of the year.

Pedroia is all batting average and home park

He’s doing pretty well away this year.

Robinson seems to enjoy the Washington Heights and Hoboken nightlife pretty frequently

Is this really true or just rumors from “anonymous sources close to the team”?

He’s doing pretty well away this year.

Yeah, but over his career he’s been much better at home (.122 OPS difference).

He doesn’t strike out much less than Cano nor does he have more power and he walks only a bit more. I don’t see anything about him that makes him much more likely to be a real .320 hitter than Cano is. And if he doesn’t hit .320 or better, he’s not really a great player, just like Cano.

Anyone have Pedroia’s LD% and BABIP?
That Slugging Percentage is awful nice.

Is this really true or just rumors from “anonymous sources close to the team”?

I’ve heard the same stories from people outside of the baseball/sports media (people who claim to have met/partied with he and Melky!), but I suppose that doesn’t make it so. I haven’t seen him out myself, that’s for sure.

The oversized jockey’s BABIP is .341 and his LD% is 21.6%. 

How great was the Ozzie quote about “I can’t believe we walked the jockey”?

Pedroia isn’t THIS good.  but he’s still good.

which sucks.  because he’s annoying.

i liked Cano as the better player, but a lot of that was based on his awesome defense.  that has also disappeared this year.

sigh.

Why is it so hard for us as Yankee fans to admit that Pedroia is pretty good? I don’t know that he will sustain it, and I suspect that his short stature (Pinto had an interesting article on this in TSN), and swing from the heels approach will make him wear down pretty quickly. Be that as it may, he’s pretty good.

Is anyone actually going to stay up to watch the Yanks against the moribund Ms?

Why is it so hard for us as Yankee fans to admit that Pedroia is pretty good?

You just answered your own question.

Small math nitpick: if a wOBA of .282 for the season (601 PA) is 3 standard deviations down, the range should be a fair bit larger for 228 PA, no?  Should be something more like .244 I think.  It’s still an unlikely result, but not quite as unlikely as it first sounded.

Carry on.

Pedroia isn’t THIS good.  but he’s still good.
...
Why is it so hard for us as Yankee fans to admit that Pedroia is pretty good?

Oh, I’m not saying he isn’t a good player.  He is.  I just think when all is said and done, Cano will have had the better career, and it won’t be all that close.  I’m saying it is kind of like the Posada/Varitek thing.  Varitek has - at times, not now - been a good catcher, probably one of the better ones in the AL for a while.  I think once (on my way out so won’t look it up now) about 5 or 6 years ago, Posada had a real down year, and Varitek had a career year.  Since then, for the most part, the MSM has talked Varitek up as being as good or better than Posada (perhaps last year they stopped).  Obviously, it isn’t even close.

Huge game tonight

Huge game tonight

i agree.  the Phillies have to take 2 of 3 this weekend if they want to win the East.

Small math nitpick: if a wOBA of .282 for the season (601 PA) is 3 standard deviations down, the range should be a fair bit larger for 228 PA, no?

Yeah, sloppy math on my part.  For 228 PA, here are the standard deviations for a projected wOBA of .344.

-3 Std: .243
-2 Std: .276
-1 Std: .310
+1 Std: .378
+2 Std: .411
+3 Std: .445

So the likelihood of hitting for a wOBA of .251 is somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd standard deviations over 228 PA.

Dustin Pedroia is the same size as me, only overweight* and balding. I remain perpetually confused on how he is a good baseball player. But he is pretty good.

*note: my perception of overweight is extremely harsh.

also, i have hair!

Thanks, Clay, now I know who to blame for my budding eating disorder.

.....and now there’s some sort of weight-losing ad at the bottom of the page.  Sob.

Jessica Alba Adriana Lima Josie Maran

I love BMI.  While it’s fairly decent for most sedentary Americans, it’s very poor when talking about people with any sort of muscle mass.  I’m on the lower end of “over-weight” even though I have 8% body fat.  I found that amusing.

I believe HungryHungryHipo has also contributed to the ad below.

One more reason to hate RS fans!

And there was much rejoicing:

UPDATE, 8:29 p.m.: Just in the knick of not being in time, Darrell Rasner has been taken out of the rotation. Alfredo Aceves will start on Tuesday in Anaheim.

I love BMI.  While it’s fairly decent for most sedentary Americans, it’s very poor when talking about people with any sort of muscle mass.  I’m on the lower end of “over-weight” even though I have 8% body fat.  I found that amusing.

BMI is a very good measurement of a large population. It sucks at individuals. Specifically, as you mention athletes.

you know, the constant mentioning of famous attractive women may be triggering the weight loss ads. Rather than my totally skewed ideas of fitness.

tacos de chorizo
pizza with black olives
mofongo
jerk goat
barbecued ribs
mole poblano
cheesecake
sweet potato pie
fricassee salad

Freakin’ Blue Jays…

That’s a good-looking lineup you got there, Frog.

That was lunch.

But the weight-loss ads are still there, oddly.

Maybe we need to start discussing Russian literature again to get rid of them.

Maybe you people should join the rest of us in the 21st century and install AdBlock.

Too much effort.  It’s much more fun and productive to kvetch about the ads.

I bet he’s given up.  And I applaud him for it.  We’re finished.  We should’ve forfeited against the Rays.  If we can’t make the playoffs, neither can the Sox.

Maybe we should all take soma, too.

I’d rather drink some milk from the Korova.

I just started rereading _A Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich_.  And I recently read _Ada, or Ardor_.

Watching Pettitte pitch makes YM a sad panda.

Aint readed that much Hucksley since Rags was a starter.
Have been going over the old Roger Angell stuff lately.

So, Cairo doubling to deep left.  Run for cover?

Rilkekind (26 months old) loves pandas.  Every morning he points to the Rice Krispies and says, Panda!  More Rice Kispees, peese!  Too bad Kung Foo Panda came out before he could go see a movie.

Aww, how cute.  How’s the little guy, rilke?

Or “littler guy”, I suppose

Rilkekindstrich is yowling in my arms as I type, but he is doing really well.  He’s gained three pounds in four weeks and returns one’s gaze.  No smiles yet, but hopefully soon.

That’s awesome.

arrrrrrrrghh…

So,.... anyone noticed that it’s the eigth inning and the Yankees haven’t gotten a hit yet?  I think that meants that Morrow has a no-hitter.  Right?  He’s throwing a no-hitter.  No hits.  None.

The Yankees really suck.

I win.  The Yankees probably won’t.

Aaaand that happened right after I typed that.

Why the hell is Pudge pinch running?

Yeah, what the hell does it mean when you pinch run for your backup infielder with your catcher/backup catcher?

Means we’ve entered BIZARRO WORLD!!!! *Cue Twilight Zone theme*

Wake up lost in an empty town, wondering why no one else is around…

so we’re on the board

Let’s set the scene in the 9th:

Jeter walk.

Abreu fly out.

ARod GIDP.

This team is kinda embarrassing.

A no no would have been a perfect lownote to punctuate this WOEful team

WOE isn’t that bad. It’s just bad enough to depressing but not bead enough to push you over the edge. It’s truly crueler that way.

WOE isn’t that bad. It’s just bad enough to depressing but not bead enough to push you over the edge. It’s truly crueler that way.

*hic*

Dodgers GM apparently claims Angel Berroa was his most important acquisition this summer.  Mmmmkay.

Also, Tampa Bay Rays finally remembered they are the Tampa Bay Rays.

Did everyone drown in the storm?

Crickets on RLYW during Seattle game…

at least the defense showed up last night

If the Yankees and the Mariners play a game and no one comments, did it really happen?

I sort of feel like the 2008 baseball season didn’t happen.

At least Moose going for #18 today should stir some interest...Then again, with the first football Sunday since February, maybe not.

The Times is reporting that both Matsui and Damon are down to play 1b next year.

If Matsui can really play 1b respectably that would add some useful flexibility.  I don’t really want to see him the OF ever again.  There has been noise on this board about Posada and 1b, but he’ll probably have enough on his plate (ahem) working his way back from injury, period.  Then there’s Tex, of course, but who knows what’ll happen there.

Is it rude to talk about playing your FA teammate’s position next season?  Isn’t that like asking your friend if you can have his toys when he dies?

Also, when you abbreviate Texeira to Tex, do you mentally pronounce it like Tex for Texas, or like the actual first syllable in his name, like as if his name sounds the same as John Tesh’s?

These are the things that keep me up at night.

These are the things that keep me up at night.

I suggest 2 Xanax and a fifth of Jack Daniels.

I suggest 2 Xanax and a fifth of Jack Daniels.

That’s my average daily intake.  Doesn’t seem to be working.

There was some discussion of the 30+ “rule” here recently - Dontrelle Willis is perhaps an example of overuse.

I’m now inclined to doubt Pavano will want to come back.  The link says he’s being treated well in the clubhouse now but blames both himself and the team for the slo-mo trainwreck of his time as a Yankee.

#72 That’s how I feel when the Red Sox or Mets are in the WS-to me that would be/was Schrodinger’s World Series

#79 An Ambien and a glass of wine and if you find yourself not falling asleep a quick shot of iced Finlandia(my choice) or Grey Goose always does the trick

I just don’t sleep anymore. and I run a ton. Combined, when you really need to/want to/your body shuts down it’s really easy to get to and stay asleep.

and I run a ton

Man you make me sick.

I’m calling it now - Pavano’s option gets picked up.

Man you make me sick.

I’m sorry.

I’m calling it now - Pavano’s option gets picked up.

I can definitely see that happening, it’s really a pretty decent move.

I’m calling it now - Pavano’s option gets picked up.

I wonder if they might try to decline the option and negotiate a 1-year incentives-laden deal.  Considering the questions surrounding Hughes/IPK/Joba with their inning limits etc, it might not be such a terrible idea.  Provided Pavano can at least stay healthy and productive for the rest of the season, of course.

I can definitely see that happening, it’s really a pretty decent move.

You have to love those 1 year deals. It’ll be nice insurance / depth for Hughes/IPK.

David Wright: 5 for 35 w/RISP since August 1.

He’s so unclutch.

Brett Favre is clutch.  Yankees should sign him up to play 1b.

Or maybe Favre can pt8???

Or maybe Favre can pt8???

Well, he’s got a good arm; however, I’m not so sure he’s got the range anymore.  Plus, he’ll probably throw a lot of balls into the 10th row of the seats, what with him being a gunslinger and all.

Pedro’s gotten smoked for 5 runs in 3.2 innings.  Hee.

I get no kick from watching the Mets fail, but man do they seem to be falling apart.

I’m not so sure he’s got the range anymore.
?

I thought you were suggesting Favre part-time as a CFer.  Was I wrong?  If so, nvm [92].

"pt8???” is Frog for “pitch teh 8????”

Holy Cow!

People please, don’t mix RX’s and hard booze.

Oh, I’m sorry.  Had you said “pt8??11?!” it would’ve been clearer.  Jeez, and you call yourself an English professor!

In other news, Jets have a receiver named Bubba.  For various reasons, I find this awesome.

My dad named our cat Bubba after Bubba Crosby. The cat has balance and jumping issues, mostly it jumps into things. I think there may be a connection.

Clay, you do realize what the next logical step must be: get a pit bull (lipstick-free) and name him Gary.

Interesting fact, courtesy of the YES booth:

Moose has hit 8 batters so far this year, which is a career high.  6/8 have been Red Sox. 

Coincidence?  I think not.

moooooooooooooose

The only thing left to root for is three more wins for Moose.

If Moose wins 19 I’ll always remember that Delmon Young homer. bleh

Jeter ties Babe Ruth on the Yankees’ hit list.  Whoop-dee-doo.

Shiiiiite*.  Don’t blow this, Mr. Moose.

*That’s Italian for “shit”, btw.

Making tandoori chicken on the ole Weber at this time. Guy that owns the 7-11 around here and I got to talking about grilling a couple of weeks ago and we traded some recipes. Am very excite.
Go Moose. Get him some more runs WOE.

Woet a surprise.

I hate this team.

2 run shot here by Nimster. Callin it now.

I meant 3 run shot by stache.

Fucking idiots.

Urge to kill rising.

So, 4th place is a real possibility this year. I really didn’t see that coming.

If Moose wins 19 I’ll always remember that Delmon Young homer. bleh

Doesn’t look as if you’re going to have to worry about that.

Moose picked the wrong time to have a shitty game.

What was that, a 4-pitch inning?

Disgusting.  Simply a disgusting effort all around today.

Meanwhile in the AAA playoffs, Phil Hughes has thrown 5 innings so far against Pawtucket:

5IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 9(!!!)K

By the way, did you guys hear that every time Lopez hits a HR it’s a new career high? Because if you didn’t, Kenny is happy to tell you, like, 50 times.

As for sleeping, I like to mix my Xanax into a milkshake. It’s calming.

I don’t really like to wish ill on anyone personally, but I’m glad this guy is having a bad year. I just can’t live in a world where someone named “Putz” is one of the best closers.

Meanwhile in the AAA playoffs, Phil Hughes has thrown 5 innings so far against Pawtucket:

5IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 9(!!!)K

Hughes is really racking up the Ks in AAA. I like that a lot.

Ehn, to hell with it.

8IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, 11K.  He threw 75/94 pitches for strikes and retired 14 of the last 15 batters he faced.  Don’t know if he’s done or not, but not too shabby regardless.

so… does he ever make it back to the Yankees this year? I’d like to see him again.

Probably depends if Scranton advances in the playoffs or not.  If they do, he’ll have another start.  If they are eliminated....who knows?  By all accounts, he was brilliant today, and has been improving steadily.  I’d like to see him again this year also.

Scranton advances to the finals on a walk-off 2-run homer by (who else?) Shelley Duncan.

BRADY OUT FOR THE YEAR!

banana banana
banana banana

banana banana

banana banana

banana banana

banana banana  glombi

Oh come on, it’s not nice to gloat over the misery/injury of others.

...unless those others are Patriots and their insufferable fans. 

Carry on.

Where did you read that he’s out for the year, though?  I haven’t seen anything aside from “they’re waiting on the test results”.

Oof, that play had shades of LT on Joe Theissman in it.

nfl_a_brady_400.jpg (via a comment in RAB)

Crap, I didn’t mean to post the picture itself.

Sorry!!!

Ouch.
I liked Brady better when he was healthy and getting smacked around by the G Men this past winter.
My favorite SB ever. Go Jets.
Chicken was good. Not great.

holy shit that looks nasty

Wait, I can’t figure that picture out.  If its what I think it is, something is pointing the wrong way.

If its what I think it is

It’s what you think it is.

Ow.

Angels released Jeff Kennard, the guy we sent over for Jose Molina. Funny.

Angels released Jeff Kennard, the guy we sent over for Jose Molina. Funny.

What’s funny is that some people thought Jeff Kennard was the next Scott Shields and it was a mistake to trade him.

I, for one, remain unimpressed by Phil Huggies.

But hey! 7-11 talk - Wow.

unless those others are Patriots and their insufferable fans

In one of my Fantasy leagues, I drafted Brady in the first round.  And this year we’re doing a keeper-league.  As you can imagine, my fortunes in that league have gone way down...Jamarcus Russel is my backup!

You know what the Yankees need?
More Cowbell.

I, for one, remain unimpressed by Phil Huggies.

Well, here is
Chad Jennings’s writeup of the game.  He also notes in a previous article that Hughes’s fastball was normally sitting 92-93, touching 94.  Basically, right where we expect his velocity to be.

So pretty much, this last game at least he was everything he was advertised to be.  He’ll probably get a start this week in the Finals, and then be called up to NY to start a game or two before heading out to the Fall Leagues.

"Because of his dreadful start (.216/.263/.319 over 228 PA), it’s tough to see that he’s been decent since June 4th(.303/.331/.469 over 328 PA).”

Yeah, well it’s tough to see because he hasn’t actually been decent except for one week following the all-star break.

April 1 - July 17: .246/.285/.358
July 18 - July 26: .514/.528/.857
July 27 - Sept. 9: .242/.274/.389

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