Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Case for Mark Teixeira
The Yankees have a gaping hole at first base with the expected buyout of Jason Giambi’s contract. Fortunately for them, there’s an available free agent who would fill the hole nicely. I’m obviously talking about Mark Teixeira.
Teixeira’s a solid player on both offense and defense, and he’s going to be 29 in 2009 which means his big decline years are still probably a few years away. He won’t be cheap, and there’ll be quite a few suitors out there for him, but here’s a look at how he projecs as a Yankee in 2009.

%: Percentile forecast (80% = optimistic, 20% = pessimistic)
PA: Plate appearances
AB: At bats
R: Runs
H: Hits
2B: Doubles
3B: Triples
HR: Home runs
RBI: Runs batted in
BB: Walks
HBP: Hit by pitches
K: Strikeouts
SB: Stolen bases
CS: Caught stealings
AVG: Batting average
OBP: On base percentage
SLG: Slugging percentage
OPS: OBP + SLG
OPS+: Park-adjusted OPS relative to league average ( > 100 is better than league average)
pBRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
Right now the Yankees are looking at some combination of Juan Miranda/Shelley Duncan/Wilson Betemit at first base. That’s basically replacement level. Adding Teixeira probably means a four win upgrade on offense alone.
The Yankees can’t just sign Teixeira for one year, but he projects to age pretty well. Although he’s supposedly looking for a ten year deal, I am not going to forecast out that far. Honestly, forecasting more than a few years in advance is sketchy enough, but it’s part of what the Yankees have to do when looking at signing someone. So here’s CAIRO’s forecast for Teixeria for 2009-2015.

The assumption for $$ (value) here is that a marginal win is worth $5 million to the Yankees in 2009, and then increases by $250K per season. This forecast is probably overly optimistic, especially in the last few seasons, but it says that Teixeira would be worth around $25 million $22 million per season in total.
The valuation above ignores defense, but that’s also a positive for Teixeira.

Inn : Defensive innings at position
PO : Putouts
A : Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
PM: Plays made
CH: Fieldable chances
ZR: Zone rating (PM / CH)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender
Diff: PM - PM by an average defender
RS : Runs saved (Diff times run value at position for a play not made)
RS/162: Runs saved pro-rated to 162 games.
As you can see, Teixeira’s fluctuated between very good and slightly below average, but he projects to be around 6-7 runs above average in 2009. That should probably decline by about a run per season going forward, which puts him at no worse than average by 2015. That also adds a bit more value to Teixeira going forward, figure another 15 runs or so, or another $7 million on the bottom line. That boosts his value up to around $23 million per season.
Here are CAIRO’s top ten projected first basemen for 2009 on a rate basis, based on offense plus defense.

BR/650: Non position-adjusted raw battng runs using linear weights pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
RS: Runs saved above an average 1B based on zone rating
These are the neutral projections, not adjusted for park or league, which is why Teixeira’s numbers differ slightly from what’s in this percentile projection. If you can’t get Pujols, might as well go for the second best first baseman in baseball, right?
C.C. Sabathia projects to be more valuable than Teixeria by a handful of runs, but if I had to choose one or the other, Teixeira is probaby the better bet. Any contract in the 7 year, $180 million $160 million range seems to be fair value. Hopefully the Yankees understand that as well.
Comments
Teixeira makes so much sense for the Yankees. unfortunately, he makes a lot of sense for a bunch of other teams too, and they will also have money to spend.
i’m guessing he stays in Anaheim, but that is not based on anything.
if the Angels do something like $200M/8 and the Yankees pass, i’d have to accept that.
if the Yankees are outbid by Boston, that would be disastrous. i only bring up Boston because they are rumored to have interest. i guess their plan would be to trade Lowell.
I actually fear he ends up somewhere like Baltimore.
Baltimore is definitely a possibly. i think Angelos has been waiting for Teixeria to become a FA for a long time.
but i’d also guess that Baltimore would have to signicantly outbid the perennial contenders like Anaheim and Boston.
if the Yankees are outbid by Boston, that would be disastrous. i only bring up Boston because they are rumored to have interest. i guess their plan would be to trade Lowell.
I’ve heard this as well, but I’ve got to think that it’s mostly to (1) try to raise the price for the Yankees, and (2) at least throw be involved in the discussion in case the price is lower than expected.
A 124 OPS+ in his age 35 season. I’d take that.
If, in 2001, the Yankees gave Giambi a contract that payed him $23mm in his age 37 season, seriously, what’s $25mm a year for Texiera?
It’ll be interesting to see if the Red Sox find a taker for Lowell - who has two years and $25mm (I think) left on his deal, and injury concerns. And then, what they’d be willing to offer for Texiera.
the Sox could also go the other way and trade Youkilis and just worry about 3B in 2011. they would get a pretty good haul if they did that.
OR…they could trade Ortiz and rotate those 3 at DH.
they won’t. but they could.
I’m trying to figure out how the money adds up. 7 years for $180 averages to over $25M per, but none of the yearly numbers comes close to $25M. It seems like they add up to $140M or so.
there’ll be quite a few suitors out there for him
Will there? I’m sure a lot of teams will check the price tag, but how many teams are there, willing to pay around $25M per year, that don’t have a first baseman currently under contract? I’ve been wrong about things like this before, but I really don’t see a guy like Teixeira, after getting a taste of a pennant race in Atlanta, and the playoffs in LA, going to a team like Seattle or Baltimore and being part of a 3 year rebuilding project. He’ll get a boatload of $$ anywhere he goes, so I really think he’ll choose a contender. Who does that leave? Angels, Yankees. (I’m assuming the Mets pick up Delgado’s option and focus on their other problems.)
I suppose Boston could get involved if they can move Lowell, but I don’t think that will be easy unless they want to eat some of his contract. I’m sure he’s looked upon as damaged goods at this point.
In the end I think it will be the Angels or Yankees, and if CC wants to be an Angel, Teixeira may have only one real choice.
Will there? I’m sure a lot of teams will check the price tag, but how many teams are there, willing to pay around $25M per year, that don’t have a first baseman currently under contract?
There are probably several teams that will offer $20M per year, which is what will help drive the price up to $25M per year. There are certainly less teams that will be willing to give that amount, especially for 6+ years. And also, there are teams that may have a 1B now, but willing to move them to a different position. E.g. Boston and Youkliss. Mets may choose to dump Carlos (or pick up some $$ and trade him). Etc, etc. Baltimore one of the allures for Tex is (supposedly) because he is from the area, and they *might* be able to convince him they are ready to contend with him on the team.
I think if the Yankees want Tex they have him.
I found a math error in the forecast. Teixiera’s offensive value should actually be around $22 million per season, not $25 million. With defense that makes his value over 7 seasons around $23 million per.
perhaps. but the Dodgers are already leaking that although they won’t go to the length of deal that Manny is seeking, they are possibly willing to pay A-Rod type AAV.
if that is the case, there may be more teams in the $25M stratosphere than we think.
it’s going to be an interesting off-season.
If, in 2001, the Yankees gave Giambi a contract that payed him $23mm in his age 37 season, seriously, what’s $25mm a year for Texiera?
You need to keep in mind it was a severely backloaded contract. Essentially, Yankees paid Giambi a lot less in his more productive years (in an expected sense) and paid him more in his expected decline years. Yankees paid Giambi an average of $17.14 millions a year. Adjust that for inflation, and you may get what is the value in 2008 dollars (I don’t know what it is, but it is straightforward to calculate).
Essentially, you need to keep in mind the variations from the market rate due to the structure of the contract that is supposed to be beneficial to the team. Comparing 23 and 25 millions is not appropriate.
If the Yankees dont sign Tex, would anyone be opposed to making a trade for Derrek Lee? The Cubs are said to be looking for a LH bat. Matsui/Damon and cash for Lee?
Matsui/Damon and cash for Lee
Who would play LF?
Sign someone like Juan Rivera to play RF and put Nady in LF.
If the Yankees dont sign Tex, would anyone be opposed to making a trade for Derrek Lee? The Cubs are said to be looking for a LH bat. Matsui/Damon and cash for Lee?
The Cubs would have to be the dumbest team in the history of baseball to do that.
I think Baltimore and Anaheim are going to be strong suitors for Teixiera. Baltimore has the money and can also offer Teixiera the chance to be the face of his hometown franchise, all in a pretty low-pressure environment. Anaheim is his current team, has the money and offers the potential to be a perennial World Series contender.
If the Dodgers let Manny and Penny go, they have a lot of cash to spend as well.
How much can the Yanks offer Teixiera, knowing that they need/want CC? How much cash can the Yanks spend with the economy lurching towards a recession, the credit market is in the crapper and Congress investigating the issuance of tax-free bonds for Yankee stadium (not to mention the fishy land valuation).
My opinion is the Yanks can sign one of CC and Teixiera. Not both. My guess is they focus on CC while trading for a bat.
Lee has a full NTC. In all likelyhood, the Yankees would have to take on his salary AND give some kind of incentive for him to waive his NTC. In Damon, the Cubs would be shedding payroll and would be getting a good LHB with an expiring contract. The Yankees probably wouldnt give up much more, unless the Cubs pay some of his salary.
The Dodgers already have a young first baseman, i.e. James Loney. Why would they shell out all sorts of money for Teixeira?
the Yankees would have to take on his salary AND give some kind of incentive for him to waive his NTC
How about the opportunity to play for a team with shot at the World Series?
The Dodgers already have a young first baseman, i.e. James Loney. Why would they shell out all sorts of money for Teixeira?
Move Loney in a trade. I keep hearing Kemp’s name in trade speculations, but why not move Loney and replace him with Teixeira. It’s far fetched, but it would make more sense than moving Kemp without a good replacement.
Yatt,
Wouldnt it be nice if that were all teams needed to offer anymore? While it would probably be an added incentive, he would more than likely want some kind of extension.
Move Loney in a trade.
I’m not sure Teixeira is the guy you move a young, productive player to make room for. If Pujols is available, sure, but Teixeira is going to be good, but also expensive. I’m not sure he makes sense for the Dodgers. That being said, just because it doesn’t make sense doesn’t mean the Dodgers don’t do it.
The Dodgers already have a young first baseman, i.e. James Loney. Why would they shell out all sorts of money for Teixeira?
because Ned Colletti is notorious for signing free agents and blocking his highly touted young players. Granted at least if he signed Tex he’d be likely blocking Loney with a player better than him, which would be an improvement over the Juan Pierre debacle.
I just added the Dodgers to show that there are teams with money to spend. Frankly, I think Anaheim, Baltimore and the Yankees are the serious contenders.
Matsui/Damon and cash for Lee?
I can’t see the Cubs doing that. However, if you add Fukudome who they may be trying to dump it might make more sense. I’d be interested to see how he does after a year’s adjustment time in the majors.
How much can the Yanks offer Teixiera, knowing that they need/want CC?
luckily for the yankees, i think the CC situation will be resolved first.
CC wants to sign quickly. Teixeira, as is Boras’ MO, probably will not.
re: Lee. i was under the impression that Lee had a much larger contract than he does. his contract is a relative bargain, and therefore there is no reason for the Cubs to trade him. i don’t see a match. was this rumored somewhere?
With defense that makes his value over 7 seasons around $23 million per.
SG, does it make sense to go over what his monetary value is? Is there an acceptable dollar figure for him that goes beyond his value, and what do you see as the limit?
Awkwardly worded question. Hope you get what I mean.
Signing Teix makes a ton of sense for the Yankees. The idea of having an above average defender on this team who can hit over .250 is making me giddy.
I also think that it’s premature to project salaries at this point. The economic world is in such a weird place that I think some teams will seriously refuse to spend ANY money this offseason. Don’t be surprised if there’s an even bigger division coming between MLB’s haves (Yanks, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, & Angels) and have-nots.
My opinion is the Yanks can sign one of CC and Teixiera. Not both. My guess is they focus on CC while trading for a bat.
I agree they’ll focus on CC first, and go from there. I don’t think they *can’t* sign both of them, I just don’t know if they *will*. They’re saving what, $80M next year? Not counting any $$ saved in revenue-sharing (pro-rating cost of constructing stadium)? If they spend $25M on “other” players (Pettitte/Moose, upgrading the bench, etc.), they could probably still afford $50M for next year easily, and since the contracts will be backloaded (maybe not a lot, but at least some), I doubt that for NEXT YEAR, CC+Tex costs more than $40M, probably not even that.
SG, does it make sense to go over what his monetary value is?
Yeah, it could make sense for a couple of reasons.
1) If a player is the difference between making the playoffs or not, he is more valuable. The difference between say 85-90 wins and 90-95 wins is probably greater than a pure marginal win increase analysis would show. As far as quantifying that, it’s tough to say. How much is a postseason berth worh? $10 million? $20 million?
2) If the player has marketing value above and beyond his field value. This is something that gets overlooked with someone like Derek Jeter. To the analytical fan he’s a good hitter and below average defender who’s overrated by the mainstream media. To the casual fan, he’s a superstar and extremely marketable. That gives him value that we can’t quantify from the outside looking in, but the Yankees probably can.
Not sure if Teixiera fits criteria 2, but he is a perfect fit for criteria 1.
I also think that it�s premature to project salaries at this point.
True. Although I would assume the Yankees’ spending power will at the very least not go down given the new stadium.
I’m not saying Teixeira is a must get this off-season, but he’s about as close to it as it gets for the Yankees. At least on offense.
Like Beltran?
I have a hard time seeing anyone outbid the Yanks on Tex, if they want him. New stadium, flush with cash from contracts ending. I will be surprised if the Yanks don’t make the top offers to both Tex and Sabathia. Not that they’ll necessarily come…I would see Tex wanting to play for the Yanks more than CC.
Isn’t one of the options to keep Giambi?
Also, regarding Matsui, I see long ranging benefits in having international players for marketing reasons, as well as making the Yankees a preferred destination for potential international FA. I guess the Yankees didn’t really capitalized on the latter, as Igawa sucks and the other FAs landed elsewhere. For the former, I do like the idea of Japanese tourist heading over to the new Yankee stadium to see there home town stars play. That said, getting rid of Matsui has a cost above his playing ability. At the same time, the Yankees remaining a premier team on the field likely outweighs the ancillary benefits.
Option A: Tex.
...
...
...
...
Option B: Keep Giambi
...
...
Option C: Miranda/Duncan/Betemit
Like Beltran?
ouch. true, but painful.
What would Giambi be worth and roughly cost over the next two or three years? If he plays for free, presumably one keeps him.
If the player has marketing value above and beyond his field value. This is something that gets overlooked with someone like Derek Jeter. To the analytical fan he’s a good hitter and below average defender who’s overrated by the mainstream media. To the casual fan, he’s a superstar and extremely marketable. That gives him value that we can’t quantify from the outside looking in, but the Yankees probably can.
I’m kind of interested in what the ramifications of this are. If Derek Jeter were to shock everyone by announcing his retirement tomorrow, would the Yankees sell fewer seats or advertisements? With a player that has unique national or ethnic appeal (i.e. Matsui) of course there would be financial losses. But otherwise? In other words, maybe whomever the Yankees promote as the face of the team becomes that valuable marketing tool, not vice versa.
I have no hidden thesis here, just wondering what you all think.
I guess the Yankees didn’t really capitalized on the latter, as Igawa sucks and the other FAs landed elsewhere.
Except many of the players that came over from Japan weren’t FA. Players like Igawa and Dice-K were obtained by acquring negotiating rights with the Japanese team, by submitting a one-time sealed bid. I think Matsui was a rarity in that he was actually a FA when he came here, not the norm.
Option B: Keep Giambi
I think Giambi is option C. Option B (to me at least) is to either sign an OF and move Nady to first, or sign someone like Dunn and move him to first. Giambi may actually even be Option D, as they may desire to trade for a 1B (not sure who would be available, unless of course LAD really DOES sign Tex).
Wasn’t Kuroda a FA? I was impressed by what I saw of him in the playoffs.
In other words, maybe whomever the Yankees promote as the face of the team becomes that valuable marketing tool, not vice versa.
I suppose it depends on a lot of factors, including who they decide to make the face of the team. E.g. if they have a heavy push to make Jose Veras the face of the team, will he have the same effect as Jeter? How about Brett Gardner? However, if they trade for Pujols (since we’re hypothesizing, ARod plays SS and Pujols plays 3rd), they’re replacing marketable-player with marketable-player.
There are other factors too, like jersey sales. I think royalties the Yanks get the same cut as Boston, the Royals, etc. But sales at the stadium they may get more (perhaps indirectly). Does Pujols sell as many jerseys as Jeter? Maybe not.
I suppose this is something we need an economist to study more than a baseball stats nerd (no offense meant to anyone; I qualify as one!)
“If Derek Jeter were to shock everyone by announcing his retirement tomorrow, would the Yankees sell fewer seats or advertisements?”
Don’t get “ads” above, but presumably the team would sell fewer seats at the optimum price with Jeter on the team. I bet this can be seen in the secondary ticket market when he’s out hurt.
Oh, in-stadium ads, or tv ads? I would think that the above applies as well - the team loses more eyeballs/cachet over a replacement-attractiveness star with n years of marketing investment behind him.
When will Mike Francesa ever give up his Joba in the bullpen bullshit?
I wonder what he thinks of David Price. Should Price close for the Rays according to his logic?
What would Giambi be worth and roughly cost over the next two or three years?
2009: .239/.367/.464, 20.2 pBRAR
2010: .241/.363/.441, 12.7 pBRAR
2011: .233/.350/.444, 11.2 pBRAR
Total value of 44.1 runs above replacement, which would be worth around $23M. We have to factor in negative defense, although odds are he’d split time between first and DH. Figure -5 per season or so assuming no more than half of the team’s defensive innings at first, or around -15 total. So really, his value in 2009 is about 1.5 wins above replacement level, then one win in 2010, then a half win in 2011. That’s probably worth a grand total of around $15 million.
When will Mike Francesa ever give up his Joba in the bullpen bullshit?
When Joba wins his *second* Cy Young as a starter. After the first he’ll still argue that the 200+ inning workload will CLEARLY affect him next year. After the second will be tough to argue. Though I suppose one minor injury and he’ll roll out the Smoltz comp.
That’s probably worth a grand total of around $15 million.
So, one year of Tex is worth more than three of Giambi. Explain again what the downside of getting Tex is?
In other words, maybe whomever the Yankees promote as the face of the team becomes that valuable marketing tool, not vice versa.
Also (I suppose) it’s who luxury box owners and big ads buyers want to rub shoulders with. Of course, it’s not a one sided matter, both sides use each other for some type of gain. But there are some players that are more valuable just because (they are great players, they got clean cut image, they date models, etc).
Players like Igawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka were obtained by acquring negotiating rights with the Japanese team, by submitting a one-time sealed bid.
True date, I guess I’m more cynical. But regardless, a special in probably helps when it comes to negotiating with the player, or shaping how the player views the team.
Explain again what the downside of getting Tex is?
Probably the same downside of any long-term signing, the chance of catastrophic injury primarily.
Giambi may actually even be Option D
I think you need to make sure you’re consdering 2009 and beyond. If the Yankees pick up Giambi’s option, then they are going to be back in the same pickle that they have been for a while now. Think of who’ve they paraded out there since, say.. 2004, after they traded Nick Johnson.
2004 - Tony Clark and John Olerud (not too bad actually, they were about average offensively, no idea how they were defensively.)
2005 - 37 year old Tino Martinez (104 OPS+) and Giambi (this is the year he went nuts after being a turd for 2 months or so), not sure how this combo did with the glove
2006 - This is where it got real ugly. Giambi, Andy Phillips, Craig Wilon, Aaron Guiel and way too much Miguel Cairo. Oh yeah, and Sheffield in the playoffs.
2007- Mientkiewicz, Phelps, Phillips, Giambi, Cairo, Betemit, Shelley Duncan all saw PT at 1B.
2008 - Giambi came out of nowhere in terms of staying healthy and playing *decently*.
So my question is, who exactly are we holding this spot open for by picking up Giambi’s option? I don’t want to see another parade of AAAA guys, displaced outfielders, or utility infielders trying to hang with what is supposed to be a spot for a premier offensive position.
“I’ve been wrong about things like this before, but I really don’t see a guy like Teixeira, after getting a taste of a pennant race in Atlanta, and the playoffs in LA, going to a team like Seattle or Baltimore and being part of a 3 year rebuilding project. He’ll get a boatload of $$ anywhere he goes, so I really think he’ll choose a contender. “
Couldn’t agree more John. I think you have nailed it. Baltimore is much further back of NY, at least perception wise, in terms of being a contender in the near future. That alone will deflate his hometown spirit.
Tex was a big Don Mattingly fan so he has at least some regard toward the stripes. The new Yankee Stadium won’t hurt either. Angels will be a strong suitor as well I fear.
As to Joba and the pen. I understand the contempt many of you feel about using him this way. Afterall, when healthy this summer he did quite well as a starter. I think the only sane view for using him in the pen has entirely to do with the concern about a possible Kerry Wood effect. I think they owe it to themselves to try to use him as a starter next year, but I won’t bet the farm that he’ll be a heavy work load pitcher. I hope he can, but I fear he may not hold up. I’m not counting on him winning a Cy Young until he’s thrown 200 healthy innings.
*decently* .. in the field, that is.
Tex was a big Don Mattingly fan so he has at least some regard toward the stripes.
Didn’t PAbe also say that his sister lives in Hoboken?
Think of who’ve they paraded out there since, say.. 2004, after they traded Nick Johnson.
funny you should mention NJ.
bet he’s available.
yes, i know….
bet he’s available.
yes, i know….
I push for a NJ trade once per week. It falls on deaf ears. I also want Baldelli, but those pleas end up in the same place.
How’s about a second coming of Dougie Eyechart?
How’s about a second coming of Dougie Eyechart?
To what purpose? Play supremely good infield defense (optimistically) and cause me to misspell everyday? Provide insurance at RF?
To what purpose? Play supremely good infield defense (optimistically) and cause me to misspell everyday? Provide insurance at RF?
And don’t forget, he’s injury prone. That time in Boston where he got nailed in the back of the head with someone’s forearm totally wouldn’t have happened if he had been (1) young (2) gritty or (3) stretched out a little bit more.
I’m not counting on him winning a Cy Young until he’s thrown 200 healthy innings.
. . . expecting every moment to be his next . . .
And don’t forget, he’s injury prone. That time in Boston where he got nailed in the back of the head with someone’s forearm totally wouldn’t have happened if he had been (1) young (2) gritty or (3) stretched out a little bit more.
Ok, you lost me. I thought Lowell ran over him while he was trying to field a throw from Jeter, no?
Or is my sarcasm meter way down?
It’s way down.
Or is my sarcasm meter way down?
Calibration required.
By the way, Austin Jackson hit a HR this afternoon off Max Scherzer, a very legitimate prospect with top notch stuff who will probably be the no. 3 starter for the Diamondbacks next year.
On the other hand, Humberto Sanchez was absolutely pasted. His line was: 0IP 6H 6ER 0BB 1HR. I noticed that his velocity was down when he pitched for the Yanks in September. He was down to 89-90 where he had previously been at 95-96. In any case, not all guys recovering from TJ surgery are going to have recoveries as Mark Melancon.
“So my question is, who exactly are we holding this spot open for by picking up Giambi’s option?”
Miranda? A stolen NJ? Posada? Somebody competent who’ll be available in a few years?
“I don’t want to see another parade of AAAA guys, displaced outfielders, or utility infielders trying to hang with what is supposed to be a spot for a premier offensive position.”
I want the Yankees to win the most games over the coming years as possible given their budget and not waste money on a position just because some people insist it has to be “a premier offensive position”.
Evaluating “waste” requires looking at the whole team and various scenarios for winning WSs. If Tex wants too much money and the Yankees can use the salary elsewhere, then I vote for the latter.
Screw you, Mark Grace. “Snatch” this.
I want the Yankees to win the most games over the coming years as possible given their budget and not waste money on a position just because some people insist it has to be “a premier offensive position”.
If Mirand’s the option, then fine, and that’s the answer to my question.
If they want Nick Johnson and trade for him, then fine, that’s another answer to my question.
What I have issue with is this:
Somebody competent who’ll be available in a few years?
Who? SG just showed us that Teixeira is the best 1B in baseball today with the exception of a player whose current historical comparables are Jimme Foxx, Joe Dimaggio, Louh Gehrig, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, etc. The word is that St. Louis is looking to lock up Pujols for 2012 and beyond. That’s a long time to wait.
*Miranda
*Lou
Incompetence behind the plate.
We don’t have to have the best or even second best in the game. We need someone competent at a good price, assuming we can use the salary better elsewhere.
We need someone competent at a good price, assuming we can use the salary better elsewhere.
I’ll concede that, but where’s the better option? There’s got to be only a few players potentially available in the coming (1) meet a need the Yankees have and (2) have Teixiera’s kind of value (offense + defense.)
Pujols? Holliday?
So back to what I said, whether it be a 1B or another player.. who are they either (1) holding 1B open for or (2) reserving the salary for?
... in the coming years that (1) meet..
We need someone competent at a good price, assuming we can use the salary better elsewhere.
The easiest way to improve is to identify the positions that look like they will be the least productive in 2009 and upgrade them. That really comes down to 1B and CF on the position player side. Teixeira’s a borderline superstar, using my 50 run above replacement cutoff, and there’s nothing close to that on the CF market. I guess you could use the money to upgrade the rotation, but I’d rather have CC and Tex than CC and Burnett or CC and Lowe.
I do agree that no player should get a blank check though. If someone is willing to pay Teixeira far more than he’s worth, the Yankees would do well to walk away.
The interest in World Series in palpable.
Tim McCarver: “Prior to that, he has never had a save professionally.”
As if it requires some special skill to record three outs without giving up two runs. I am sure Price has done that professionally numerous times.
So you’re saying that the save isn’t a fantastic statistic?
How is this ump behind home plate in the World Series?
“have Teixiera’s kind of value (offense + defense.)”
Good thing he plays for free.
“Pujols”
Do you actually think he might be available, or is this just noise?
I don’t have a list of the players in the US and Japan who are going to be available over the next few years either as FA or in upgrading trades or dumps - I wouldn’t have said “Abreu” to a similar question before he showed up. But maybe instead of saying, “We have to pay Teixiera whatever he wants” over and over again, it might be more productive to suggest names. Esp. since there may not be a salary that T would take.
It seems to me that this question should be treated the same as Burnett vs Pettitte, as a cost-benefit analysis, not a benefit analysis. If the Yankees can’t get value for their money in the short term, maybe it makes sense to make do and spend more when there’s more leverage. Maybe Baldelli will accept being overpaid to play every other day, maybe there are more creative possibilities.
Yeah thats how I feel just put far more eloquently haha. Having Tex in NY next year would be excellent but its gonna take another lengthy expensive contract and we have too many of those right now. It might be smart to lie low now but who knows.
Interesting debate about Tex. I suppose some of the concerns from rilkefan would be best addressed by stuff I’m sure SG would do in the future, e.g. evaluating Dunn and Burrell. Those of course are players that you could sign instead of Tex (Dunn for 1B, Burrell probably for OF move Nady to 1B).
For “future guys in the orginazation”, other than of course the idea that they *need* 1B for Posada or ARod or ? in coming years. Jesus Montero perhaps, and Brandon Laird, both in Charleston last year. We know all about the debate of Montero, whether or not he can stick at catcher. If he can’t 1B is an option. Laird had an .832 OPS. Not great for a 1B but not bad either. But he also had a .916 after the All Star break, and had a .945 in rookie ball the prior year. He just turned 21 last month. The problem of course is in holding a position open for a player that hasn’t even played in High A yet.
I think it’s clear, personally. Sign Tex. Even overpay. Not a ridiculous amount like Texas did with ARod a few years ago, but if he’s “worth” 7/175, and wants 8/200 I’d be willing to do it. If he insists on 10/250 and someone is willing to give it too him, oh well.
Having Tex in NY next year would be excellent but its gonna take another lengthy expensive contract and we have too many of those right now.
do they though?
besides A-Rod, is there any other contract that we could really call lengthy and expensive (for the Yankees)?
Posada has a 3 year $39M deal at this point. that’s the next longest contract with significant dollars.
Jeter has a 2 year $40M deal.
Mo has a 2 year $30M deal.
after that, there aren’t many players signed past this year.
in fact, the only players besides those 4 actually under contract for 2010 are Cano and Igawa (not counting guys like Brackman and Miranda).
now, obviously the Yankees are going to have to add some contracts this winter. but as far as long term big $$ contracts, the Yankees really only have 1 right now. it’s a whopper, but i think they can afford to add 1-2 more.
“Jeter has a 2 year $40M deal.”
He doesn’t take a pay cut in two years, does he, or a short-term contract?
He doesn’t take a pay cut in two years, does he, or a short-term contract?
The *most* likely scenerio of course is that Jeter continues to produce enough - and especially maintain enough popularity - that he’ll get a 3-4 year deal (perhaps with options for 5 and 6) upwards of $25M per. However, who knows? Perhaps he decides to retire shortly after getting 3000 hits, to pursue something else (movie career?) Perhaps he only WANTS a 2 year deal, because he wants to retire after that. Maybe he’s declined enough that he gets a shorter-term (and $$) deal. What we do know, is he does not currently have a long term contract that hampers the Yankees.
Just my $.02, FWIW…
Signing Teixeira would give the Sox an infield of Teix, Pedroia, Lowry and Youkilis for the foreseeable future. So I’m thinking the Yankees will go to great lengths to assure this doesn’t happen, given their own needs.
I of course hope the Sox go hard after him; injuries to Papi and Lowell pretty much killed our WS hopes this year, and the problem isn’t likely to improve. Add Teixeira and you can probably get up to 120 games out of the older guys, while giving 150 to the younger ones. And when someone goes down, you don’t skip a beat. But it’s a bit of a stretch to see it happening, particularly with you guys and Anaheim in the picture. It’ll come down to who wants it more, and I don’t see the Sox winning that one.
I dunno, Noah Lowrie at shortstop doesn’t scream “production” to me.
Either I just made an unintentionally funny mistake, or I’m an idiot.
Next entry: Can the Yankees afford Sabathia AND Teixeira?
Previous entry: Yankees.com: Starter tops Yankees' shopping list
There are currently 70 visitors who are not logged in.
There was a record 241 simultaneous visitors on May 2, 2011 at 11:54:25 pm.












