Thanks so much for all your hard work and sharing it with us, SG!  This gives me plenty of food for thought,

FYI-- I think you forgot a summary for the Astros, not that there’s much to say other than that they’ll stink up a terrible division.

I guess that makes them even more irrelevant than the Rangers, huh?

On the pie charts, the AL west is there twice and there’s no NL west.

so essentially, the state of Texas is irrelevant to baesball

anyway, great work here. I love how the NL West projection shape up. the Angels projection probably took a pretty big hit though missing Escobar AND Lackey for 1+ month

Great work as always SG.

Any chance that Saltalamacchia is stealable from Texas any time in the future, or has that ship left the station?

Rather surprised to see Toronto making the playoffs at the 22% level for the aggregate.  Are those seasons where say Wang and Pettitte are injured?  Or Ortiz and Beckett?  And, uhh, Carmona/Martinez or say Magglio/Cabrera?  I would guess that the line for them is not at all that favorable.

I wondered a bit about your handling of the Boston pitching - wouldn’t one expect them to trade from their farm system for something above RL if Schilling is really done?  Of course one might ask whether Daisuke Matsuzaka is likely to have gotten figured out by the league, or gotten used to the US.

I want to ask about comparing the inter-projection variance to intra-projection variance but it’s been a really long day.

Hello internet friends.  I know you missed me!  I’m in San Francisco producing a show about a gay basketball team.  That’s not a joke and it’ll be a great show.  Sadly, even if I had free time the Giants are not in town before I leave and I’ll have to wait to see Pacbell, or whatever it’s called.

I’m very pleased about the developing projection consensus around the Yankees.  I’ll be even more pleased when they bear it out in the actual season…

I’m in NY for April and will be able to bring my 9 month old daughter to the “classic” Yankee stadium before it’s demolished.  Well, it’ll mean a lot to ME, anyway. SHE’LL freeze and last 2 innings.

And let me add to the chorus of thanks.  Not only is this the most rewarding of Yankee blogs, the commenters here are streets ahead of any other.

the Angels projection probably took a pretty big hit though missing Escobar AND Lackey for 1+ month

Actually, that’s already factored in.  I have Lackey missing 15% of his starts and Escobar 20% (replaced by Ervin Santana).

I wondered a bit about your handling of the Boston pitching - wouldn’t one expect them to trade from their farm system for something above RL if Schilling is really done?

I assumed a 5 man rotation of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester and Buchholz.  I had Colon and Tavarez backing them up for about 35 starts (mainly replacing Lester/Buchholz).  Losing Schilling meant more games for Lester, Tavarez and Colon, none of whom project particularly well in most systems

It is a pity that the projections of Joe Torre’s green tea consumption are no longer so relevant…

But seriously, how much did he drink?  I drink 4 cups a day, but I’m a software engineer.

Cool SG.

I’ll take the over on any Lester projections, he’s probably going to be pretty good.

The AL East and the NL West look like the divisions to watch this year.

One more big Thank You to SG. Hope the Yanks fulfill this prediction.

Lester thus far has walked 74 in 144.3 major league innings.  If that rate doesn’t improve, not only will he not be “pretty good,” he’ll likely be a drain on Boston’s bullpen after being pulled from games in the 4th or 5th inning.  The career 1.566 WHIP is somewhat less than impressive as well.  That’s not to say that Lester, who will be 24 this season, won’t or can’t improve.  However, assuming such improvement should not be taken as a given by any stretch.

Lester was one of the top lefty pitching prospects before he got cancer. If he’s healthy and ready to go, he’s going to pitch like the top level prospect he was before he got sick. It’s not a given that he’s healthy, but if he is, his statistics over the last couple of years just aren’t as relevant as they are in most cases. Hopefully he craps out, but he has a lot of upside and there is a very good reason to believe he’s got it in him to achieve his full potential if he isn’t bothered by the sickness in the future.

Are walks a function of sickness or lack of command?  Also, while 144.3 innings is a relatively small sample size over two years, one can’t assume Lester was sick for that entire time.  The high walk rate is real and is something that has plagued Lester constantly at the major league level.  Let’s not forget that Edwin Jackson, of the Tampa (Devil) Rays, whose ERA was well above 5 last season, was once a much more highly regarded prospect than Lester.  Upside is nice, of course, but Lester must do more than win one World Series game against the Colorado Rockies to convince me he’ll be decent in the majors this year.

"Are walks a function of sickness or lack of command?”

He didn’t have a command problem before he got cancer. You tell me.

“Also, while 144.3 innings is a relatively small sample size over two years, one can’t assume Lester was sick for that entire time.”

Are you joking? The guy was diagnosed with cancer and had to have it surgically removed. He absolutely could have been sick/recovering from sickness that entire time. I don’t know what his treatments were, but I bet it was pretty hard to stay in shape while dealing with them.

“Let’s not forget that Edwin Jackson, of the Tampa (Devil) Rays, whose ERA was well above 5 last season, was once a much more highly regarded prospect than Lester.”

Is he relevant to Lester at all, or is this just a “look, this prospect didn’t turn out to be a star so maybe this one won’t” comparision? They throw from different sides, were brought up in two different organizations and one didn’t have cancer, I don’t see much of a relationship.

Actually, he did.  Lester has 203 walks in 483.3 minor league innings.  Are you going to argue that he was sick back then as well?  The slight spike in Lester’s walk rate against major league hitters is to be expected given the tougher level of competition.

I really missed this kind of thing.

Convenient endpoints. Lester walked 140 batters in 355 IP before 2006, when he was diagnosed with cancer. Lester walked a 136 in 281 IP after. That includes a stint at Single-A ball where he walked two in 13 IP. His walk rate got much worse after his illness, even if it was a warning sign before he was sick, it wasn’t nearly the red flag it has been since.

"140 batters in 355 IP”
That’s 3.5 per nine.  Good, but not “going to kick ass in this league.”

Especially given that it wasn’t in this league.

That should be in 281 IP during and after the 06 season.

SG, I hereby join the chorus of thanks!

Glad to see the clarification of presumptions regarding the Boston rotation - I don’t think any other choice would do better by them, and that supports the findings of the test.
May I ask: What are the presumptions for the NYY staff (that is, who pitches how much)?

How crazy is the NLW?  Complete and radical disagreement everywhere.  How is that even possible?

"Good, but not “going to kick ass in this league.””

I acknowledged it wasn’t great, I don’t really know what else you would have wanted me to say ther. Lester did not have anything really resembling command problems until he got sick. He had a so/so walk rate and a ton of Ks to balance it out. Then he developed a terrible walk rate, which coincided with him being diagnosed with lymphoma. This also coincided with Lester being moved up to a more difficult league, so its impossible to say for sure what caused the command issues.

Me, I see a guy with Lester’s history and pedigree develop serious command issues, out of line with what he had produced previously, around the same time he has a tumor in his body, I’m inclined to believe the cancer may have had something to do with it.

Was Lester really regarded as a Phil-Hughes-type prospect?  I honestly don’t remember that.

Lester was a signability pick I think. 57th overall, highest signing bonus of any second rounder. His minor league awards:

“He was named Eastern League Pitcher of the Year and Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year and was selected as the left-handed pitcher on the Eastern League’s year-end All-Star team and on the year-end Topps AA All-Star squad”

He wasn’t Hughes, but if he stayed healthy, he would have become one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

May I ask: What are the presumptions for the NYY staff (that is, who pitches how much)?

Wang and Pettite are 1 and 2 and I penciled them in for about 380 innings combined.  I gave Ian Kennedy about 170 innings, Hughes and Moose about 150 each, and Joba about 90 in the rotation and 30 in the pen.  I threw in Igawa and Karstens for about 100 innings and then just used about everyone that could conceivably pitch in the pen this year.  If the Yanks don’t have to use Igawa/Karstens that much they’ll be that much better as far as preventing runs obviously, but I tried not to make any team have its best case scenario.

My friend is a Marlins fan, and he and I were only able to come up with 10 of the 25 Florida Marlins. His excuse: “It’s a moving target...”

"My friend is a Marlins fan, and he and I were only able to come up with 10 of the 25 Florida Marlins. His excuse: “It’s a moving target...””

What’s the problem?  Sheffield, Pierre, ...

I think Jeff Conine is a Marlin, and Rob Nen, and Livan.

Jeff Conine is actually Mr. Marlin.

Is Bucholz expected to carry a full load for the Sox this season?  Looks like he threw about 140 innings last year.  Does that put him about in the same range as IPK?

Also, I love that the Orioles went 0 for 6000.  Ouch.

“Let’s not forget that Edwin Jackson, of the Tampa (Devil) Rays, whose ERA was well above 5 last season, was once a much more highly regarded prospect than Lester.”

Is he relevant to Lester at all, or is this just a “look, this prospect didn’t turn out to be a star so maybe this one won’t” comparision? They throw from different sides, were brought up in two different organizations and one didn’t have cancer, I don’t see much of a relationship.

That is not really a comparison at all and it was fair for him to say. He was simply putting it out there that top prospects have failed. He was not saying Lester will fail because he reminds him of Jackson. Just a simple statement that there is a chance Lester busts and in an unrelated case, he was pointing out Jackson.

CPop it’s already hard enough to root against Lester. please stop being logical.

being a lefty he racks my nerves when we face him. even the starter kit lefties give the yanks fits. and he’s certainly above average. probably not as good as peter gammons thinks but in my humble opinion definitely good enough to win 10+ games as a 24 year old with a good team behind him.

Is Bucholz expected to carry a full load for the Sox this season?  Looks like he threw about 140 innings last year.  Does that put him about in the same range as IPK?

I’m not sure what the Sox’s plans are but I used him for about 160 innings.  He may be able to go more than that but who knows?

SG, add my thanks to the list. Boffo work.

I’d come by to gab about Lester, but Cowboy Popup has rather ably covered the subject. I doubt his command problems will go away overnight, but it seems reasonable to think that a stronger body would translate into better command. Not very scientific, I know, but he’s likely to not get worn down very quickly anymore.

As for Buchholz, I think 160 is a good guess. They haven’t announced his rotation spot yet, and he’s struggled all spring with his own command issues, and they’re not likely to ride him hard even if he catches fire. But he was ticketed for the rotation once Schilling got hurt, and possibly even before that.

I take it the 27% of the times the Sox missed the playoffs included projecting Bartolo Colon to 30 starts?

SSF; “a stronger body would translate into better command”

I would think that a stable body would translate into better command - steady health being better than varying illness.  Though perhaps he was overthrowing.

SG, it might be interesting to take 10 seasons at the 90% level and 10 at the 10% level, average each set, and put up the team lines.  For NYY, and if possible RS, and if extra possible Cleveland and Detroit.  I wondered about Toronto’s success above, and those 10% lines would give some insight into how that happened; also the above question about Colon ditto.

If Lester was walking 3.5 per 9 in the minors, with the bulk of his innings coming below the AAA level, is it that unreasonable to believe, that against far superior competition, his walk rate might spike to roughly 4.5?  Personally, I don’t think so.  Lester really doesn’t scare me.  The Yanks will devour a pitcher who doesn’t pound the zone and with all due respect to Pete Gammons, Lester has not proved he can limit the walks.  I realize he’s a lefty and such, but he’ll still have to face A-Rod, Jeter and Posada from the right side.  Ensberg will take a walk if Lester doesn’t throw strikes.  So will Shelley Duncan.

Rilke, I think we mean the same thing. I assume stronger also means more stable, since we’re talking about coming back from chemo and whatever the hell that entails.

This is what I love about the new rivalry. With the kids taking key roles, it’s going to be about 100 times more interesting to watch than another Mussina vs. Wakefield matchup. I’m bullish on Lester, right now, and I even stopped reading Gammons. This is observation… but the last time I saw him was against Colorado, so who knows what he’d do against a major league lineup.

Seriously, the Q with him is, why the walks? Can he pound the zone? If he really is back up to 95, will he just use his fastball more so the bases aren’t clogged with Duncans and Ensbergs? It’s not like he doesn’t know what his weakness is, or how the Yanks will try to attack it. I mean, we know, so presumably he does too.

it might be interesting to take 10 seasons at the 90% level and 10 at the 10% level, average each set, and put up the team lines.  For NYY, and if possible RS, and if extra possible Cleveland and Detroit.  I wondered about Toronto’s success above, and those 10% lines would give some insight into how that happened; also the above question about Colon ditto.

I like this idea a lot.  Might take me a few days to get to but I’ll work on it when I can.