Sunday, March 23, 2008

The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 1

Opening Day is almost here, so it's time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2008 season through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator out there.

I've done this for the last few years. If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links:

2005
2006
2007

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that's certainly understandable. This year, I'm using six different projection systems, and I've run each one 1000 times for a total of 6000 iterations.

Sean Smith's CHONE. Sean blogs at Anaheim Angels all the Way and does some of the best analysis out there.

Diamond Mind's own projections.

The Hardball Times' projections, which are available in their season preview.

PECOTA by Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus, which are generally considered the best projections.

ZiPS by Dan Szymborski from Baseball Think Factory. Dan's ZiPS are also higly regarded in the forecasting community.

Last and probably least, CAIRO, my own projection system which is new for 2008.

Before I present the projected standings, it's disclaimer time.

1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can't be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match the actual playing time of the players involved. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it's a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 31-35 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality. I did not change Diamond Mind's depth charts, but used the same depth charts for the other systems.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do include projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Rich Harden is not expected to make 30 starts. I've also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there's no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are the averages of 1000 seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.

5) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn't project well, don't blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2007 Rockies projecting to win 79.

6) Since this is all automated, I don't break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. The RLYW supercomputers have been cranking through these for the last two weeks. I am showing W-L to one decimal point to deal with displayed rounding issues, not to imply that these results are that precise.

First up, here are the results of 1000 iterations of CHONE.

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
AL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
NYA08	92.5	69.5	917	791	414	216	63%	110	70	86 - 99	872 - 962	749 - 833	93	93	97	92
Bos08	91.9	70.1	868	751	397	199	60%	112	72	86 - 98	824 - 911	710 - 791	92	90	91
Tam08	87.1	74.9	832	760	137	167	30%	106	67	81 - 93	789 - 874	720 - 799	88	90	86
Tor08	82.9	79.1	795	765	52	67	12%	101	62	77 - 89	755 - 835	725 - 805	83	86	80
Bal08	64.3	97.7	751	945	0	0	0%	85	47	58 - 70	711 - 791	902 - 988	64	68	64
AL Central
Cle08	91.7	70.3	827	708	519	119	64%	114	69	85 - 98	783 - 871	670 - 747	91	91	95
Det08	90.8	71.2	866	754	462	131	59%	110	72	84 - 97	822 - 909	714 - 792	91	92	88
Min08	76.7	85.3	762	803	11	19	3%	96	54	70 - 83	723 - 800	762 - 844	77	78	79
ChA08	74.9	87.1	794	861	7	7	1%	93	54	69 - 81	755 - 833	819 - 902	75	74	74
KC08	69.3	92.7	760	893	2	0	0%	88	51	63 - 75	721 - 798	850 - 936	69	67	67
AL West
LAA08	91.6	70.4	799	707	810	18	83%	110	73	86 - 98	761 - 837	669 - 745	91	90	92
Sea08	82.6	79.4	737	724	153	51	20%	103	61	76 - 89	697 - 776	685 - 764	83	79	76
Oak08	74.5	87.5	763	826	23	3	3%	95	55	68 - 81	723 - 802	786 - 866	75	73	69
Tex08	72.2	89.8	846	943	15	4	2%	92	51	66 - 79	803 - 889	899 - 988	72	70	83
NL East
NYN08	92.6	69.4	885	764	603	178	78%	111	73	86 - 99	843 - 926	725 - 802	93	93	95	90
Phi08	87.8	74.2	900	826	271	228	50%	106	69	81 - 94	856 - 944	786 - 866	88	89	88
Atl08	84.3	77.7	848	810	124	154	28%	102	61	78 - 91	805 - 891	769 - 851	84	83	82
Was08	70.7	91.3	768	881	1	5	1%	90	52	64 - 77	728 - 807	839 - 922	71	72	73
Flo08	69.2	92.8	767	886	1	2	0%	87	47	63 - 75	729 - 806	845 - 926	69	70	66
NL Central
ChN08	86.9	75.1	850	790	449	77	53%	108	64	81 - 93	809 - 890	750 - 829	87	86	91
Mil08	85.5	76.5	837	786	352	63	42%	106	65	79 - 92	797 - 876	748 - 825	85	85	85
Cin08	80.1	81.9	802	814	110	31	14%	100	59	74 - 86	763 - 842	773 - 855	80	79	81
StL08	76.0	86.0	789	834	38	11	5%	97	54	70 - 82	748 - 829	795 - 874	76	76	78
Pit08	75.7	86.3	756	817	28	20	5%	96	57	69 - 82	717 - 795	776 - 858	76	79	74
Hou08	74.4	87.6	811	876	24	7	3%	94	55	68 - 81	771 - 851	832 - 921	74	71	69
NL West
Ari08	85.4	76.6	804	766	356	59	41%	107	66	79 - 92	763 - 844	726 - 805	85	86	91
LAN08	84.9	77.1	782	751	309	76	39%	103	65	79 - 91	741 - 823	712 - 789	85	85	85
SD08	84.0	78.0	771	736	273	63	34%	105	64	78 - 90	731 - 810	697 - 775	84	86	81
Col08	76.5	85.5	848	888	44	21	7%	98	57	70 - 83	806 - 889	847 - 930	77	76	76
SF08	72.9	89.1	729	805	18	7	2%	94	54	66 - 79	691 - 768	765 - 845	73	76	70

Legend
W: Average Wins
L: Average Losses
RF: Average runs for
RA: Average runs against
DIV: Total division titles
WC: Total wild cards
Playoff%: Percent of time team made playoffs
StD W: Win range within one standard deviation each direction
StD RF: RF range within one standard deviation each direction
StD RA: RA range within one standard deviation each direction
Div W Avg: Average wins for each placing in the division
Wild Card Avg: Average wins for wild card

Second up, 1000 iterations of Diamond Mind's projections

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
AL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
NYA08	96.7	65.3	914	739	621	175	80%	118	79	90 - 103	870 - 958	700 - 778	97	98	99	93
Bos08	91.9	70.1	887	779	268	274	54%	114	74	86 - 98	845 - 929	739 - 819	92	92	92
Tor08	87.3	74.7	780	720	99	167	27%	108	66	81 - 94	741 - 819	682 - 758	87	88	86
Tam08	80.1	81.9	849	843	12	36	5%	102	60	74 - 86	807 - 891	801 - 884	80	81	79
Bal08	68.3	93.7	778	915	0	1	0%	87	51	62 - 75	738 - 817	871 - 960	68	68	68
AL Central
Det08	94.7	67.3	892	750	675	104	78%	117	76	89 - 101	850 - 935	711 - 790	95	94	97
Cle08	90.4	71.6	852	740	312	193	51%	111	72	84 - 97	811 - 893	701 - 779	91	90	89
Min08	77.3	84.7	701	744	11	11	2%	105	55	71 - 84	664 - 737	707 - 781	77	80	80
KC08	72.3	89.7	742	838	0	1	0%	91	53	66 - 78	705 - 779	798 - 878	72	73	74
ChA08	71.7	90.3	801	905	2	0	0%	91	51	65 - 78	761 - 841	863 - 947	72	71	68
AL West
LAA08	86.9	75.1	810	747	597	18	62%	104	69	81 - 93	770 - 850	708 - 785	87	90	90
Oak08	83.8	78.2	752	724	327	19	35%	104	66	77 - 90	714 - 790	685 - 762	84	83	83
Sea08	75.9	86.1	710	777	57	3	6%	96	56	70 - 82	673 - 746	737 - 817	76	79	76
Tex08	72.2	89.8	810	904	19	1	2%	92	53	66 - 78	769 - 851	861 - 947	72	69	70
NL East
NYN08	92.2	69.8	818	720	702	115	82%	109	68	86 - 98	779 - 856	683 - 758	92	92	94	89
Atl08	85.2	76.8	787	744	185	181	37%	110	65	79 - 92	748 - 826	708 - 781	85	82	87
Phi08	83.7	78.3	836	798	109	155	27%	105	64	77 - 90	795 - 877	758 - 839	84	81	81
Was08	70.3	91.7	788	891	3	5	1%	89	53	64 - 77	750 - 826	850 - 933	70	74	73
Flo08	68.8	93.2	779	900	1	3	0%	91	51	63 - 75	742 - 816	859 - 941	69	68	66
NL Central
ChN08	85.3	76.7	814	759	392	64	46%	107	63	79 - 92	773 - 855	722 - 796	86	87	90
Mil08	83.4	78.6	844	809	259	51	31%	110	61	77 - 90	804 - 884	768 - 849	83	80	85
StL08	82.5	79.5	771	759	221	53	27%	100	61	76 - 89	732 - 809	720 - 798	83	84	81
Hou08	79.0	83.0	770	793	102	35	14%	99	61	73 - 85	731 - 809	753 - 832	79	76	77
Cin08	73.0	89.0	754	835	19	8	3%	92	49	67 - 79	716 - 793	794 - 877	73	75	72
Pit08	68.2	93.9	715	849	7	2	1%	91	49	62 - 75	677 - 753	809 - 889	68	68	66
NL West
Col08	90.4	71.6	822	736	618	93	71%	112	73	84 - 97	781 - 862	698 - 774	91	93	93
LA08	84.8	77.2	739	717	215	117	33%	106	66	79 - 91	704 - 774	681 - 752	85	85	86
SD08	81.6	80.4	713	707	106	70	18%	102	60	75 - 88	675 - 751	672 - 743	81	82	82
Ari08	78.4	83.6	736	756	52	38	9%	96	60	72 - 85	698 - 773	717 - 794	78	80	77
SF08	73.8	88.2	674	738	9	9	2%	94	53	67 - 80	639 - 708	700 - 776	74	73	71

Third up, 1000 iterations of the Hardball Times' projections.

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
AL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
Bos08	93.4	68.6	834	707	490	272	76%	118	72	87 - 100	790 - 879	670 - 745	93	95	97	91
NYA08	92.9	69.1	950	815	413	303	72%	113	73	87 - 99	903 - 997	773 - 857	93	93	91
Tor08	84.9	77.1	780	752	77	147	22%	109	67	79 - 91	741 - 819	713 - 791	85	85	85
Tam08	80.6	81.4	814	828	20	60	8%	102	64	74 - 87	775 - 853	787 - 870	81	82	79
Bal08	67.0	95.0	751	896	0	0	0%	86	48	61 - 73	712 - 790	854 - 937	67	68	67
AL Central
Det08	89.2	72.8	856	763	589	58	65%	113	71	83 - 95	814 - 898	723 - 802	89	91	92
Cle08	86.1	75.9	840	774	353	66	42%	107	67	80 - 92	798 - 882	736 - 812	86	85	85
Min08	75.4	86.7	734	791	21	11	3%	99	57	69 - 82	694 - 773	752 - 830	75	76	79
ChA08	75.2	86.8	807	873	25	8	3%	96	54	69 - 81	766 - 848	830 - 915	75	77	74
KC08	73.4	88.6	782	864	14	6	2%	91	52	67 - 80	742 - 821	822 - 907	74	74	69
West
LAA08	90.4	71.6	814	724	787	19	81%	112	72	84 - 97	773 - 855	684 - 764	90	90	91
Oak08	79.0	83.0	770	800	98	24	12%	102	60	72 - 85	730 - 810	760 - 840	79	80	82
Sea08	77.3	84.7	712	752	65	19	8%	97	60	71 - 84	673 - 751	711 - 793	77	77	77
Tex08	76.0	86.0	825	869	50	8	6%	97	54	70 - 82	784 - 866	826 - 911	76	77	72
NL East
NYN08	98.1	63.9	848	689	757	148	91%	118	80	92 - 104	806 - 889	651 - 728	98	102	99	92
Phi08	89.9	72.1	905	809	182	352	53%	112	67	84 - 96	863 - 947	770 - 849	90	92	91
Atl08	85.3	76.7	816	778	61	182	24%	105	67	79 - 92	775 - 857	742 - 815	85	85	83
Was08	68.9	93.1	728	844	1	0	0%	90	49	63 - 75	691 - 764	807 - 881	69	70	70
Flo08	63.0	99.0	714	879	0	0	0%	83	42	57 - 69	674 - 753	839 - 919	63	66	62
NL Central
Mil08	87.9	74.1	824	750	465	50	52%	110	70	81 - 95	785 - 863	712 - 789	88	88	92
ChN08	86.3	75.7	818	759	358	55	41%	105	62	80 - 93	777 - 859	721 - 796	86	85	86
StL08	80.4	81.6	783	793	114	25	14%	101	62	74 - 87	743 - 824	754 - 832	81	81	81
Cin08	77.6	84.5	808	842	49	11	6%	97	59	71 - 84	768 - 848	800 - 885	77	77	77
Hou08	73.6	88.4	742	829	12	8	2%	96	47	67 - 80	704 - 779	789 - 869	74	72	72
Pit08	68.4	93.6	714	839	3	0	0%	90	50	62 - 75	675 - 752	800 - 878	68	68	66
NL West
SD08	88.9	73.1	760	692	535	47	58%	107	70	82 - 95	721 - 799	654 - 729	89	89	92
LAN08	83.8	78.2	752	735	204	52	26%	106	64	78 - 90	715 - 789	697 - 773	84	80	86
Ari08	81.7	80.3	744	728	118	35	15%	102	62	76 - 88	706 - 782	691 - 766	82	79	82
Col08	81.2	80.8	823	808	126	30	16%	100	54	75 - 88	781 - 864	769 - 847	81	82	78
SF08	74.4	87.6	668	732	17	5	2%	94	55	68 - 81	633 - 703	693 - 772	74	75	72

Fourth up, 1000 iterations of PECOTA

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
AL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
NYA08	97.0	65.0	892	727	668	183	85%	116	79	91 - 103	850 - 934	688 - 765	97	98	99	92
Bos08	91.0	71.0	837	729	240	331	57%	110	73	85 - 97	795 - 880	691 - 767	91	89	91
Tam08	86.3	75.7	785	721	86	179	27%	109	59	80 - 93	746 - 825	684 - 759	86	87	85
Tor08	78.5	83.5	761	781	6	26	3%	97	58	73 - 84	722 - 800	742 - 820	79	81	78
Bal08	66.3	95.7	737	909	0	1	0%	87	46	60 - 73	697 - 777	864 - 954	66	64	66
AL Central
Cle08	90.5	71.5	832	721	503	109	61%	109	72	84 - 97	792 - 872	682 - 759	90	90	94
Det08	90.2	71.8	837	742	455	131	59%	108	51	84 - 96	796 - 878	703 - 781	90	88	87
ChA08	77.8	84.2	779	814	35	12	5%	96	57	72 - 84	742 - 817	775 - 854	78	78	79
KC08	72.5	89.5	737	834	2	5	1%	92	52	66 - 79	699 - 774	792 - 875	72	73	74
Min08	70.8	91.2	704	808	6	2	1%	94	0	64 - 77	666 - 741	768 - 849	71	70	67
AL West
LAA08	87.8	74.2	807	742	770	8	78%	108	54	81 - 94	765 - 848	703 - 781	88	88	89
Oak08	78.2	83.8	725	757	128	5	13%	95	57	72 - 84	685 - 765	719 - 794	78	76	81
Tex08	74.8	87.2	789	857	62	5	7%	94	0	68 - 81	750 - 829	815 - 900	75	74	75
Sea08	73.5	88.5	686	765	40	5	5%	95	0	67 - 80	648 - 723	726 - 804	73	73	70
NL East
NYN08	94.4	67.6	805	678	711	119	83%	114	0	88 - 101	766 - 845	640 - 715	94	93	83	90
Atl08	85.5	76.5	801	762	141	172	31%	110	66	79 - 92	760 - 841	723 - 800	85	88	96
Phi08	85.5	76.5	842	793	140	198	34%	107	0	79 - 92	800 - 884	754 - 832	86	85	76
Flo08	74.0	88.0	761	821	4	5	1%	93	51	68 - 80	723 - 799	783 - 860	74	73	88
Was08	73.7	88.3	762	836	5	8	1%	92	69	67 - 80	725 - 799	796 - 875	74	72	70
NL Central
ChN08	89.1	72.9	840	758	542	74	62%	109	52	83 - 95	798 - 881	720 - 796	89	87	92
Mil08	86.4	75.6	825	767	349	78	43%	103	0	80 - 93	784 - 865	729 - 805	86	85	86
Cin08	79.3	82.7	771	791	71	39	11%	101	51	73 - 86	734 - 809	752 - 831	79	81	81
Hou08	74.2	87.8	744	813	15	5	2%	91	0	68 - 80	706 - 781	775 - 850	74	76	77
Pit08	73.6	88.4	714	796	13	4	2%	91	64	67 - 80	677 - 750	756 - 836	73	74	73
StL08	73.0	89.0	716	784	10	7	2%	90	67	67 - 79	677 - 754	745 - 823	73	74	68
NL West
LAN08	88.7	73.3	788	723	498	79	58%	108	0	82 - 95	747 - 829	685 - 760	89	90	92
Ari08	86.5	75.5	822	772	315	100	41%	108	0	80 - 93	783 - 861	732 - 812	86	86	87
Col08	83.4	78.6	877	850	153	91	24%	102	0	77 - 90	836 - 918	809 - 891	83	83	82
SD08	78.2	83.8	694	712	33	21	5%	96	57	72 - 84	657 - 731	677 - 747	78	78	77
SF08	69.4	92.6	660	767	1	1	0%	87	51	63 - 76	625 - 694	730 - 804	70	71	68

Fifth, 1000 iterations of ZiPS

Team								High	Low	StD	StD	StD	Median	Mode	Div W	Wild Card
AL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC	Playoff%	Wins	Wins	W	RF	RA	Wins	Wins	Avg	Avg
NYA08	98.5	63.5	931	740	708	174	88%	117	75	92 - 105	885 - 977	701 - 778	99	98	100	93
BOS08	91.0	71.0	841	744	160	330	49%	111	71	85 - 97	799 - 882	704 - 784	91	91	93
TOR08	89.8	72.2	754	665	128	285	41%	110	67	83 - 96	715 - 794	630 - 701	90	90	87
TB08	77.3	84.7	798	827	5	21	3%	98	51	71 - 84	757 - 840	784 - 869	77	78	78
BAL08	68.9	93.1	745	892	0	2	0%	90	53	63 - 75	708 - 782	847 - 936	69	69	68
AL Central
DET08	90.9	71.1	858	750	574	57	63%	110	71	85 - 97	816 - 901	711 - 788	91	92	94
CLE08	88.3	73.7	837	743	395	68	46%	109	68	82 - 95	795 - 879	703 - 782	89	90	86
MIN08	75.5	86.5	728	787	17	3	2%	95	56	69 - 82	689 - 766	747 - 827	76	76	78
KC08	73.8	88.2	765	842	11	0	1%	93	54	68 - 80	727 - 803	803 - 881	74	75	73
CHA08	69.5	92.5	775	905	2	1	0%	95	53	63 - 76	735 - 815	861 - 949	69	70	67
AL West
OAK08	88.7	73.3	800	714	613	25	64%	107	68	82 - 95	760 - 840	677 - 750	89	87	91
LAA08	85.4	76.6	774	739	363	32	40%	110	65	79 - 92	734 - 814	700 - 779	85	84	84
TEX08	72.7	89.3	803	893	11	1	1%	91	53	67 - 79	764 - 841	848 - 938	72	72	75
SEA08	71.7	90.3	716	809	13	2	1%	92	53	65 - 78	678 - 754	761 - 857	71	71	68
NL East
NYN08	99.3	62.7	835	659	687	223	91%	119	81	93 - 106	794 - 876	622 - 695	100	100	101	94
ATL08	93.9	68.1	858	732	266	427	69%	113	76	88 - 100	816 - 899	692 - 770	94	97	94
PHI08	87.1	74.9	876	800	47	179	23%	111	68	81 - 93	834 - 918	762 - 839	87	85	86
WAS08	68.8	93.2	760	878	0	2	0%	91	48	62 - 75	720 - 800	837 - 920	69	67	70
FLA08	63.4	98.6	719	890	0	0	0%	84	46	57 - 70	680 - 757	849 - 931	63	63	62
NL Central
CHN08	93.0	69.0	812	700	832	13	85%	115	73	87 - 99	773 - 852	664 - 736	93	91	94
MIL08	82.6	79.4	800	777	118	38	16%	106	60	76 - 89	761 - 840	739 - 815	83	84	84
STL08	78.0	84.0	741	758	36	8	4%	99	59	72 - 84	702 - 780	721 - 795	78	77	79
CIN08	73.5	88.5	747	839	8	2	1%	92	54	68 - 79	709 - 784	798 - 879	74	74	74
HOU08	70.5	91.5	717	821	6	0	1%	96	47	64 - 77	681 - 753	781 - 862	71	71	69
PIT08	64.6	97.4	692	860	0	0	0%	86	46	58 - 71	654 - 729	816 - 903	65	67	63
NL West
SD08	87.4	74.6	729	662	413	43	46%	111	67	81 - 94	691 - 767	629 - 695	88	90	92
ARI08	84.4	77.6	713	682	253	23	28%	105	65	78 - 91	676 - 750	646 - 718	84	84	86
LAD08	84.3	77.7	757	731	236	24	26%	104	63	78 - 91	718 - 796	692 - 770	84	86	83
SF08	78.6	83.4	681	697	47	7	5%	97	57	73 - 85	645 - 718	660 - 734	79	79	79
COL08	78.5	83.5	769	799	52	12	6%	99	58	72 - 85	729 - 809	759 - 839	78	77	74

Continued in next entry.

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