It’ll at least be fun to watch A-Rod hit 60 HRs as a righty in Yankee Stadium… it may be the greatest power season ever seen, that is, if he keeps hitting at his current pace.

That’s pretty much it…  btw, does anyone know if Phil Hughes is coming back this year… that will be something else to enjoy.

One last thing: wait and see what ridiuculous panic move the Yankees make when George decides he can’t take anymore.

Oh yea, one other thing: Pettitte and Posada have mentioned some guys don’t seem to be trying anymore.  I am going to take a wild stab at it and say they are referring to Matsui.  Cano is the obvious choice, but I am going with Hideki.  If we don’t get baseball, I guess we get a soap opera instead.

What is ‘rock bottom’ for this team? When do they start getting ready for 2008? If Cashman, or his replacement, can be inventive, they can certainly make some moves between now and opening day 2008.

None of these are very comforting.

Phil, last info on Hughes I heard:

According to the New York Post, Hughes threw 35 pitches in a bullpen session on Friday to test his left ankle and hamstring.

“I am going to take a wild stab at it and say they are referring to Matsui.”

Bobby Abreu and his shit head plays in the first two innings say otherwise.

I’m sorry for this super long post, this may not be what people want to talk about, but the promise of 2008 is about the only thing keeping me excited latsely. In case Steinbrenner calls and wants me to replace Cashman, I’ve decided I’d come up with some things I’d do prior to 2008:

1) Melky Cabrera and Andy Phillips play everyday, no matter what (barring injury.)  The 2008 offseason needs to be conducted knowing what these guys bring to the table. Melky should stay in CF because it’s becoming obvious that he’s going to hit more like a CF than a corner OF.
2) Chris Britton stays in the minors and starts losing weight. He’s shown he can be an effective relief pitcher in the AL East, now lay off the wings at Hooters so you can contribute to this team for years to come.
3) Do anything and everything you can to get ARod under a contract extension. I know the Yankees don’t normally do this, but the contract situation with ARod coming from Texas, I believe, is unique for any player they’ve ever had, and they need to have Texas keep paying the big part of his salary.
4) Resign Rivera and Posada, of course barring anything unforseen.
5) Be aggressive at the trade deadline. Teixera, Saltalamacchia, Loney, Wood Willits or Kendrick are guys that fill holes immediately and are young. No, they won’t come cheap. Try to find motivated sellers in the playoff hunt (Atlanta, LAD, LAA more likely than TEX).
6) Obviously Abreu walks. Dangle Matsui and Damon and see what you can do (I understand the NTC’s.) This team has 4 DH’s, and when healthy, Giambi is the best one. Matsui is decent enough to play the field and spell Giambi at DH when he’s hurt or needs a day off.
7) Posada gets his full day off like he normally does. No more DH’ing. He’s more important to this teams future than this teams present (if we’re at that point.)
8) Explore trading Igawa, Mussina, Matsui, Giambi, Damon, Farnsworth, Rasner, Karstens and Abreu (not necessarily in that order).  I understand the NTC’s. It’s been shown that players unhappy with their situations will move on despite the NTC. Add Tyler Clippard to that list (maybe).
9) Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Betances, and Tabata are off limits, with the obvious exceptions (if Pujols comes knocking, one of these guys may have to start looking for an apartment in St. Louis.)
10) The roster should be filled with solid guys with a good history or durability.  Then, and only then, go fishing for something high risk, like a Mark Mulder or Eric Gagne.
11) Send Pavano on assignment to China. Then forget he’s there. Seriously.
12) Schedule Joe Torre Day. Have it. Move on.
13) Repeat step 12 for Bernie Williams.
14) Hire Joe Girardi to replace Torre.
15) Rebuild the bullpen via the scrap heap method AND trades.

Of course, if we decide to go 10-1 over the next 11, this may all be moot..

And now that I think about it, Damon really won’t be going anywhere. Someone suggested sending him on the 60 day DL and emersing him in first aid cream.  Then put him on a Navy SEAL workout regimen to make him a flexible gazelle again in CF.

11. One word. Nieves.

“9) Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Betances, and Tabata are off limits, with the obvious exceptions (if Pujols comes knocking, one of these guys may have to start looking for an apartment in St. Louis.)”

_One_ of these guys?  Not plain “these guys”?

Well, if one of those guys were to go, I would hope it would be in addition to a team taking one of the older one dimensional players as well.

12. What will Scott Proctor burn next?

I wouldn’t make Kennedy untouchable.  He’s a decent prospect, but not a top of the rotation starter.  I wouldn’t just give him away, but he’s probably our best prospect I wouldn’t have any qualms about trading.

““I am going to take a wild stab at it and say they are referring to Matsui.”

Bobby Abreu and his shit head plays in the first two innings say otherwise. “

He was my first choice, but he looked the same way when he was hitting .400 a few weeks ago.  Matsui is the guy who just seems to be in a season-long funk for no reason.  I can’t think of one hot stretch he had at all, or one game that he was a difference-maker.  I’ve seen it with Cano, Abreu, Melky, even McAlphabet and Josh Phelps had a moment or two, but I can’t seen to recall any point during this season where Matsui gave us any hope that he was going to do something other than strike out or hit ground balls to the second baseman…

This picture pretty much sums up Matsui’s season.

11) How many days until Torre is fired?

Has anyone considered that Matsui has experienced an accelerated decline that we weren’t able to see because he was essentially out for the entire season last year.  Would anyone be surprised to see yet another Japanese player have a rapid, fall-off-the-cliff type decline as he moves towards his mid-30s? I think Ichiro is probably the exception to the rule, and granted the usual suspects are pitchers (Nomo, etc), but perhaps what we’re expecting from Matsui is longevity as defined by how American players are brought up through high school and the minors, and maybe it is just different in Japan?

I can’t believe I forgot to add Nieves to the list.

Regarding Matsui, I’m not sure he’s really underperforming.  He projected to hit .288/.376/.474 this season according to PECOTA, and was projected to be worth about +15 runs above an average LF.  He’s hitting .270/.349/.435, but offense is down this year.  AL average this year is .268/.337/.419, last year was .275/.339/.437.  He’s on pace to be +11 runs above an average LF. 

He’s having a weird season.  It doesn’t seem like he’s done anything at all, but his line is really not that bad.

RF and 1B are the two biggest killers on this team.  I have Yankee 1B as being -12 runs (offense plus defense) compared to average so far, and Yankee RF as being -13 runs.  I’ll do a more detailed post at the All Star break, but even 2B (offense plus defense) hasn’t been a problem.

Oh, and Jeter’s defense has been so bad that it has dragged away all of his offensive value to this point.

5) Be aggressive at the trade deadline. Teixera, Saltalamacchia, Loney, Wood Willits or Kendrick are guys that fill holes immediately and are young. No, they won’t come cheap. Try to find motivated sellers in the playoff hunt (Atlanta, LAD, LAA more likely than TEX).
9) Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Betances, and Tabata are off limits, with the obvious exceptions (if Pujols comes knocking, one of these guys may have to start looking for an apartment in St. Louis.)

these 2 are opposites.

don’t get mad when Cashman fails to land any of the guys in #5 without trading any of the guys in #9.

these 2 are opposites.

I disagree. I think at this point, you have to consider trading Cano if you want any of these players.

Given that this team is still, STILL, single digits out of the wild card, and given their proven ability to get hot and win games, there’s still some hope.

However, if they really do go in the tank, and the idea is to play for 2008 and beyond, doesn’t it make sense, once again, to consider trading A-Rod.  It’s now year four of A-Rod, and he’s had two great years, and two mediocre years, while the team seems to get worse every year.  Given that ARod is the veteran player who would stand to bring the most back in return, might it make sense to consider dealing him for a package of young position players that could combine with the young pitching the Yankees already have down on the farm?  The two LA teams both have the money and prospects to make a deal if the Yankees wanted to try.  All these other guys we want to trade, they’re not bringing back anything more than what the Yankees got in return for RJ or Sheffield this past offseason.

A-Rod has a no trade clause. I seriously doubt that he would waive it, and even if he did, he would be a rent-a-player for the team he was traded to, which lessens his value.

Top ten reasons to continue to watch this team has to include watching Cano AB’s. The word is long out, throw him high stuff and watch him make outs. Talk about not adjusting. Put a red nose and a clown suit on him.

“Oh, and Jeter’s defense has been so bad that it has dragged away all of his offensive value to this point.”

It’s been painful to watch. The poor guy didn’t have much range to begin with, and now he’s saddled with knee tendonitis. And I mean SADDLED. He can hardly manage lateral movement right now. If anything positive can be gleamed from this, it’s that an eventual move to CF/RF might be accelerated. Jeter the hitter is still in peak form, and you hate to see the D tarnish that.

Why do people think an aging Jeter can play a credible CF? The time for that has passed.

I disagree. I think at this point, you have to consider trading Cano if you want any of these players.

ok, but Cano’s value is at its absolute lowest right now.  he’s having a TERRIBLE year.  TERRIBLE. why would teams want to trade their best blue-chip prospects for Robinson Cano?  i don’t kniw if you could get ANY of those players even straight up for Cano right now.  Wood maybe?

why would the Angels want Cano when thay have Kendrick?  they wouldn’t.

and why would the Dodgers trade Loney?  they wouldn’t.

the Rangers already have a young 2Bman, and would probably want one of those untouchables in addition to Cano for Teixeira, b/c Cano basically sucks this year.

I really don’t see anyone trading any prospects of value for the players the Yanks would be willing to trade.  This isn’t a poker game of Pass the Trash.

The best the Yanks can hope for in any trade is getting rid of some salary and taking a flyer on a low-level prospect.  Unless, of course, they trade Wang.

Yup is right in that Cano has basically killed his trade value, which is a shame.  If he continued his hitting from last year, he could get us some prospects.  Of course, if he were still playing well, no one would want to trade him.  This sucks because the Yanks could probably have a decent stopgap at 2B, Cairo or Basak or Cannazario until a permanent replacement was found.

Why do people think an aging Jeter can play a credible CF? The time for that has passed.

Because Jeter still has good speed, which can help make up for a bad first-step (see late 90’s Bernie Williams).  Because Jeter has a very strong - not quite elite but very strong - arm, that will be a huge improvement over Damon.

But even then, I think at this point Melky’s defense is good enough that even if his offense doesn’t improve significantly, I think the Yankees would be better off with Jeter in a corner spot and Melky in center.  Jeter would be credible in CF - somewhere in the +/- 2 range - while Melky looks to be very-good.

Cano has underperformed this year offensively, but if you add his offense plus defense he’s still an average to slightly above average 2B overall.  While an average player doesn’t help you win 95 games, to say he’s a problem is not really fair.

yup is correct, they shouldn’t trade him now while his perceived value is at its lowest.

As far as Jeter and the OF, how about RF instead of CF?  Less ground to cover, he’s got the arm for it, and it’s going to be a position of need next season.  Paul O’Neill was not as fast as Jeter is now and he handled himself pretty well out there for the most part.

While an average player doesn’t help you win 95 games, to say he’s a problem is not really fair.

i agree and disagree.  he’s still a useful player, but he is still a problem.

the problem is not that he is not average, the problem is that last year he was an all-star and the Yankees were counting on him to be one of the best 2Bman in MLB again.

now, i am SURE the Yankees were not counting on him to hit .340 again.  that would have been foolish.

but i don’t think it was unreasonable for them to expect .300/.340/.500 given his track record and more importantly his AGE.

he hit 14 HRs as a 22 year old rookie and last year he hit 15 in only 122 games.
i don’t think it was unreasonable to expect 15-20 HRs from Cano, even if his batting average was a bit flukey last year.

the lack of power has been a HUGE problem with this team, and Cano is one of the worst offenders.

While this would probably never happen, what would you do if you were Cash and Theo called, wanting to know if Clemens were available?

Let’s say that Theo offers you Ellsbury straight up for Clemens, or Bucholtz for Clemens and lesser pitching prospect. 

Do you do it, knowing that while it probably helps your team in the long run, you get hammered by the press and fans for helping Boston?

If the Yanks were out of it, I’d do it, even if it cost me my job.  Boston would laugh in 2007.  New York would be laughing for years to come.

I’d help anyone beat the Mets, including Boston.  Yuck, I hate how I’m going to have to decide between those two this year- that WS would be a love-fest of Yankee haters.

yup, I see your point about Cano.  Relative to expectations, he’s been a problem.  However, looking at how to improve the Yankees, fixing first base and/or RF seems like it would be easier and pay a larger dividend.

The good news about Cano’s slump this year, he should come cheap in arbitration, right?

As far as trading with Boston, any trade that puts your team in position to be improved should be considered, regardless.

If Boston didn’t deal Mike Stanley to the Yankees, they wouldn’t have had Tony Armas Jr. to flip as part of the package for Pedro Martinez.  Just think, the Yanks probably could’ve gotten Pedro for Ruben Rivera and Tony Armas…

I think the point has come where even Yogi would agree that “It’s over”.

Granting that means we have to look at the season in a very different way.

Step #1 is too work with the young guys.

Melky seems to be stepping up over the last two months (OPS over .800) but Cano needs to make the adjustment to high pitches. Find him a coach who can help him do it. If Long can’t get someone else.

Wang is having a great season and looks like a top of the rotation star for years to come. Phil Hughes looked great in limited exposure. Baby him there is no need for him to rush back. Dump Hernandez from the AAA rotation and bring up Horne. Slot him into the O8 rotation. If he burns up AAA bring him up in September. Switch DeSalvo to the pen, tell him to work on his command and bring up Kennedy in a few starts. Bring up Chamberlain as soon as he gets his AA BB/9 around 2.70. Put Steven White in the pen. Slot Kennedy and Chamberlain into the 08 rotation. If they blow through AAA bring them up in September. Tell Moose and Pettitte to take a vacation and see what you have in the toung guys. 

Step #2 is the old guys. Cashman has to show what he has here. We have alot of players that could help contending teams. See what they get you. Trade for young prospects.

Stage Torre Day and put that era to rest, hire Girardi to work with a young rotation.

Retain A Rod.

Build for the future

Just think, the Yanks probably could’ve gotten Pedro for Ruben Rivera and Tony Armas…

One would think. The problem is that then Expos GM Jim Beattie has held a lifelong grudge against George for what he perceives as mistreatment when he was a Yankee in the ‘70s. As a result, it has been reported that he was unwilling to trade Pedro to the Yankees no matter what they offered.

your overall point holds, but Irabu was a Yankee in 2007 so Rivera was already a Padre.  /nitpicking

Here’s a sure-to-be unpopular idea.  At the deadline, dangle Posada.  Go to him, ask him to waive his 5-and-10 rights because you need to improve the farm system.  He’s got some value, even as a rent-a-player.  Trade him, then pull a mid-90s Oakland/Toronto and sign him in November.

Hey, if we’re going to nitpick, I’d say Irabu was not a Yankee in 2007.

the Frog, it’s an interesting idea, but what teams are contenders that could use a catcher?  How would Posada take it personally if he was traded?  Given some of his recent comments, I’m not so sure being a Yankee is as important to him now as it may have been five or six years ago.  However, it does make more sense to think about trading someone like Posada, Pettitte, and/or Clemens than it does Alex Rodriguez.

The reason a Rodriguez trade and re-sign doesn’t make sense is because if Rodriguez opts out, then he will be $27 million more expensive to the Yankees, since the Texas subsidy goes away.  What type of package is worth $27 million to the Yankees that would justify trading him and making him that much more expensive to re-acquire.

Beattie was replaced by Luis Tiant after being one of the few rookies in history to pitch a complete game victory in the World Series (vs. Dodgers, 1978). This was after Gabe Paul retired as GM and his logical successor Pat Gillick had already taken the GM job with the expansion Blue Jays. Of course, it’s a moot point because Beattie didn’t have much of a career afterwards anyway. But Beattie’s not the only executive with a mouth full of sour grapes towards Steinbrenner. There’s Brian Sabean with SF and Doug Melvin with the Brewers to name 2 others. You can see Steinbrenner has let a lot of GM talent slip through his fingers.

Any of the pending FA that would make sense for.  Pettitte (who controls his option), ARod (ditto), Posada, Clemens, even Rivera.  Present to them the fact that the Yankees AREN’T going to win this year, so they can either go down with the ship, or have a chance to win a ring with a contender and come back next year to a stronger Yankees team.

Also, I think it make sense to try to trade Abreau.  Yeah, yeah, he has no trade value.  But find a team he wants to play for that needs a bat and has a surplus of some position in the minors, and work out a deal that includes Abreau’s option being picked up, and the Yankees take on a significant portion of his salary, and/or take some dead-weight with an expiring contract off of the other team.  Not sure what is out there, but I’m sure there is SOME match.

Well, there’s still the Jermaine Dye deal out there. If the Yankees picked up his option and took on some of his money, they could have Dye as a rent-a-player since he’s in his walk year. And, you’re right, Abreu has some value…still. Optimally, you could send him somewhere where the home field doesn’t have outfield fences.

Haven’t racked my brain about who needs a catcher, but there have got to be contending teams that would foam at the mouth at the thought of Posada as a bat that can DH, catch a few games a week and play 1b in a pinch—and a be a gamer, a fiery veteran presence who knows who to win, blah blah.

Joel Sherman’s article today about trading A-rod this month if he refuses to tear up his opt out probably makes sense. I think presentation is everything so I would do it with a caveat of an extension clause, but if Boras tells him no, then they would be wise to get at least something back. I think it would be foolish to trade Cano, he still has a lot of potential and really who is readily available to replace him? Seriously, this team may be not be as bad going into next year as it looks at the moment if they keep A-rod. Injuries and off-years have killed the spirit and some of these guys will resurrect their careers next year in NY or elsewhere. Perhaps Matsui’s wrist injury has affected his performance? I think the focus this month should be on getting A-rod’s future settled. To me he is the one guy who can’t be overlooked and if he leaves without some compensation it would be just criminal. As bad as the team is against leftys now, what a total void will exist next year without him. Instead of being at least a .500 team they could slip back to the early 90’s vintage. Yikes!

A-Rod presents a quandry.  Boras probably won’t let A-Rod sign a new contract w/o testing the FA market.  Yet, I doubt too many teams can afford to sign A-Rod for what Boras will want: more money than the Texas deal (in terms of total amount, or yearly amount - doubt he’ll get both).

That said, it would be quite a risk for any team to give up too much to sign A-Rod.  The Angels and Dodgers would probably love to have his bat, but are they willing to give up a lot to get him, only for him to become a FA?  Could they afford to pay his new salary w/o help from another team, like the Yanks had with the Rangers?

It’s a shame it’s such a farfetched scenario, because the Angels and Dodgers have the prospects to make this deal happen.

Now, for a rental, A-Rod will probably get you some talent, but not enough to justify the trade.

I guess it comes down to reading tea leaves.  If it looks like A-Rod is going to leave when he opts out, then trade him know while you can.  If he wants to stay, sign him.

Am I the only one remembering that he has a no trade clause?

I would love to see ARod tell Boras to go fly a kite, ask for an extension, and get it.  It would be the ultimate “you don’t know what you’re talking about” to every tabloid writer that covers him.

Hey, if we’re going to nitpick, I’d say Irabu was not a Yankee in 2007.

am i missing the joke?  Irabu pitched 53.3 innings for the 1997 Yankees.

Irabu:

May 29, 1997: Sent by the San Diego Padres to the New York Yankees to complete an earlier deal made on April 22, 1997. The San Diego Padres sent players to be named later, Homer Bush, and Gordon Amerson (minors) to the New York Yankees for Rafael Medina, Ruben Rivera, and $3. The San Diego Padres sent Hideki Irabu (May 29, 1997) and Vernon Maxwell (minors) (June 9, 1997) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade.

Pedro:

November 18, 1997: Traded by the Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox for a player to be named later and Carl Pavano. The Boston Red Sox sent Tony Armas (December 18, 1997) to the Montreal Expos to complete the trade.

While I agree that trades for any prospects of value are far fetched, my point is that I’d like to see Cashman be smart about when he declares this sinking ship sunk.  There will be motivated buyers out there looking to upgrade the middle to back of their rotation, their bench, their OBP, whatever.  There are also organizations out there that feel like they can ‘fix’ players.  There’s also about a of baseball to play before the deadline is actually here, and injuries can happen.  I just don’t want to see them throw in the towel on all fronts.

There’s Brian Sabean with SF and Doug Melvin with the Brewers to name 2 others. You can see Steinbrenner has let a lot of GM talent slip through his fingers.

agree about Melvin, but i’m not sure we should be regretting the loss of Brian Sabean.

Stop with the “trade Arod” stuff. He has a no trade and why would it benefit him to waive it? Any agreement he could make with a team in exchange of giving up his no trade would still be available to him during the offseason.

Joel Sherman’s article today about trading A-rod this month if he refuses to tear up his opt out probably makes sense

well, not really.

here’s how it would go:

“alex, would you be willing to tear up your opt out clause”
“uhh, no way, it’s worth tens of millions of dollars, would YOU do that?”
“ok, if you don’t, we are trading you”
“i have a blanket no trade clause”
“well, you’re just a big doody-head”
“whatever”

48 - Laughing Out Loud.  Awesome.  Thank you. 

Yup - um, 2007 and 1997 are ten years apart, and actually different years.  I think this is one of those deals where you know what you meant, and when you re-read your post you read what you meant instead of what you actually wrote.

am i missing the joke?  Irabu pitched 53.3 innings for the 1997 Yankees.

34. Posted at 11:50:59 am on Monday, July 2, 2007 by yup

your overall point holds, but Irabu was a Yankee in <u>2007</u> so Rivera was already a Padre.  /nitpicking

Yup - um, 2007 and 1997 are ten years apart, and actually different years

hilariously embarrassing.  yeah, i obviously thought SG was trying to say Irabu was traded to the Yankees in 1998, not 1997, that i missed my brain fart like 3 different times.

J, I completely agree with your long post. Thos things need to happen

Re: trading ARod.

I agree with everyone that points out he has a no-trade, and how it will make it difficult.  And/or him tearing up the opt-out.  But neither is impossible.  To prevent him from using the opt-out, go to him soon and offer as much of an extension as the Yankees would be willing to offer.  Make it clear up front that this is it: if he doesn’t want the extension, and opts out, don’t expect to be a Yankee in 2008.  Put more diplomatically of course.

If he signs the extension - and part of that contract is to remove his ability to opt out - then enough said - ARod is a Yankee until his late 30’s.  If he doesn’t sign, then you approach him about trading.  Why would he agree?  Say he really wants to go to the Angels.  If the Angels trade for him, even if they only send half what he is “worth” in prospects, they’ll still be sending away a ton.  Now when ARod opts out, there is *more* pressure on them to sign him, which means they may offer more than if he was leaving the Yankees.  At least, that’s one way of looking at it.  Whether Boras looks at it that way is anyone’s guess.

My whole point, I think the Yankees do need to approach ARod soon to find out what they can do with him.  A Yankees team that probably won’t make the playoffs, needs to leverage its most valuable commodity, OR be able to lock it up long term.

In a perfect world, Boras and A-Rod would put pressure on the Yanks now to redo his contract.  He’s having a monster season and he’s the only power threat in that lineup.  Yanks would have a hard time saying no.

Now, if the Yanks don’t want him back, I could see a possible trade scenario.  Yanks tell Boras no thanks and then tell them that if they want a trade, the Yanks would facilitate.  Just waive the NTC.  To maximize the return, allow Boras to work on an extension.

That won’t happen as I see Boras willing to gamble that the Yankees will pay more when forced to compete for A-Rod’s services on the open market.  Right now, no team needs A-Rod more than the Yankees.

I still contend that Matsui’s left wrist is not right…..He gets too much top hand, might account for all the ground balls…..It just seems as though his wrist collapses when he swings….He just doesn’t have the power and he’s not driving through when he swings…...

I would say again that I don’t think the Yankees are quite done yet.  Sure, they’re playing like shit, but they’re only 9 back in the WC and 11 in the division.  If they go on another one of those 12 of 14 winning streaks, they’re back in it.

As for trading ARod, I absolutely understand and acknowledge that ARod is holding all the cards, so a deal would be very difficult.  I just wonder:

A)  is it an absolute forgone conclusion that the Yankees SHOULD resign/extend him off this great season he’s having?  He’s going to command an astronomical amount of money, and he does have to decline SOMEDAY, and shouldn’t it be noted that he showed up leaner and ready to go in what just happens to be his contract year?  I mean, do the Yankees really want to be tied up with ARod for another ten years?  And,

B)  I can see the Angels or Dodgers with their stocked farm systems saying “fuck it, let’s get ARod in here for a World Series run,” and throwing 3 or 4 big prospects the Yankees way.  I mean, is it so outlandish to think that the same team that signed Juan Pierre, and has been so infatuated with veterans like Nomar at the expense of their young prospects, might be dumb enough to overpay for ARod?

I mean, shouldn’t the Yankees at least be CURIOUS as to what, say, the Angels, Dodgers, or even Cubs might be willing to offer?  If things continue to go south, shouldn’t they at least be CONSIDERING that?

#11 You get to vent which not nearly as satisfying as winning does have its pleasures

I’m sure from Cashman’s side, he is more than willing to work both ends at the same time.  Try to work on the extension, while at the same time seeing what he could get for ARod.  All while monitoring where the Yankees are in the standings, to determine if he can afford to stick with ARod w/o the extension.  I sure don’t want his job!

Re. Clemens:

If he jumps, it almost has to be to Houston. As intriguing as the Boston possibility sounds, the problems with that are:

1) Theo can’t possibly offer anything of consequence to the Yanks for a short-term rental. The usual impediments to a deal btw these teams—that you can’t do anything you have any chance of regretting later—is larger here b/c Clemens has no long term outlook. Think “David Murphy”. The idea of Bucholz or Ellsbury is laughable.

2) The Sox wanted to do the Clemens deal a month ago partly for the PR kick, but the guy just spurned Boston for the Yanks. Change places with us and ask, do you want him around? Maybe but not nearly as much as you did a month ago.

Houston can flip a middlin prospect and Clemens will be more than happy to go home. That’s your best bet.

B) I can see the Angels or Dodgers with their stocked farm systems saying “fuck it, let’s get ARod in here for a World Series run,” and throwing 3 or 4 big prospects the Yankees way.  I mean, is it so outlandish to think that the same team that signed Juan Pierre, and has been so infatuated with veterans like Nomar at the expense of their young prospects, might be dumb enough to overpay for ARod?

*maybe* the Dodgers.  and by “3 or 4 big prospects”, think 1 or 2. 

but not the Angels.

they NEVER trade prospects.  EVER.  they just don’t and they won’t.

He’s going to command an astronomical amount of money, and he does have to decline SOMEDAY, and shouldn’t it be noted that he showed up leaner and ready to go in what just happens to be his contract year?

because he dogged it for the first 5 years of his contract, he only won 2 MVPs.  clearly this year is a contract year fluke in an otherwise mediocre career, i.e. Adrien Beltre.

he lost the weight b/c it was clear he lost a step on defense last year.  he worked his ass off to correct the biggest flaw in his game.

only yankee fans (and i’m making a generalization here) could turn this into a negative.

because he dogged it for the first 5 years of his contract, he only won 2 MVPs.  clearly this year is a contract year fluke in an otherwise mediocre career, i.e. Adrien Beltre.

only yankee fans (and i’m making a generalization here) could turn this into a negative.

yup,

I never said he “dogged it” for the first five years of his contract, nor am I trying to turn ARod’s improved play this year “into a negative.”  What I AM trying to do, which is what I think we’re all trying to do here, is play general manager.  And if I were Brian Cashman, I would take into account that ARod’s great year this year has come in a contract year.  It doesn’t diminish his accomplishments so far, and I’m not trying to single out ARod for this.  It’s something that should be taken into account for all players, lest one find oneself throwing $50 million at Gary Matthews, Jr.

Of course, ARod is not Matthews or Beltre.  He’s most definitely one of the best players in the game right now, and has about as good a track record as a player can have.  But he IS on the wrong side of 30, and he could potentially cost a LOT of money for a team that has been getting older and less successful for a few years now.  So far with the Yanks, ARod’s put up two MVP-type years that have been worth the money, and two mediocre years that would arguably not be worth the money.  But ARod is going to want to be paid for the GOOD years… and I think it’s fair, when trying to determine whether a player will be worth $25-35 million per year for his ages 32-40 seasons, to at least wonder if maybe his 2007 might be the best the Yankees will ever see from the guy.  Maybe the answer is no, but I don’t think it makes me an ignorant fan for asking the question.

Sometimes it feels like the media’s unfair treatment of ARod causes people on this site to become overprotective of him, so that you can’t candidly analyze the guy.  I’m not trying to bash the guy, I’m just trying to put myself in Cashman’s shoes.

So his great year is coming in his contract year. What about 2005, was that a contract year?

For those who are saying this team is dead in the water against lefties based on everyone but A-Rod’s performance against them this year, here are A-Rod’s numbers against lefties:

.268 .396 .524 with 4 homeruns.

So A-Rod, at least, is not REALLY doing his job as the lone right-handed power bat.

Jeter, however, is batting a ridiculous line of:

.360 .473 .507 in 93 plate appearances vs. lefties.

Posada, too, is doing a good job:

.341 .400 .500 with 3 homeruns in 100 PA. His BAbip, however is a ridiculous .435 against lefties this year.

Anyway, losing A-Rod would be a blow as he is one of 3 who does well against lefties. But, one could say that of the 3, he does the least well, and it couldn’t be that difficult to find someone who can replicate those numbers, at least against lefties.

I don’t know Andrew, I’d put more weight in Rodriguez’s career splits of .309/.388/.575 vs RHP and .299/.388/.586 vs LHP than I would in his numbers this season.

Once again, any deal the Yankees sign Alex to will include the luxury tax. So a $30 million per year deal works out to around $39 million per year. One player is not worth it.

Isn’t the new stadium going to eliminate the luxury tax hit?

SG—I have no idea about that. Even without it, no one player is worth what Alex will seek if and when he opts out.

Too many Yankees fans want him around in pinstripes to see him break the career HR record. A circus like the Giants have going on with Bonds, all about the player, not about the team. No thanks

I don’t so much care about the career HR record, I just think he’s the best fit at third base for the next few seasons and don’t see any better options.

I do agree that he (and any player) has a limit as far as his worth.  If I were the Yankees, I’d try to extend his current deal for another 3 seasons maximum, at an additional $20 million per year.  He may not go for it, but I’m not sure he’ll do better than that, which is an outlay of of $135 million over the next six seasons for his ages 32-37 seasons, although with Texas’s $27 million subsidy it would cost the Yankees $108 million.

Is he worth $18 million a year?  Right now, I think so.  Will he be from ages 32-37?  On average, probably.  I just don’t want to see the team go cheap when they have a chance at locking up a Hall of Fame talent.  Even with decline he should be one of the top three or four third basemen in the league for the next four or five years.  If his defense becomes a problem, he can probably move to first and his bat would be fine there.

SG—I don’t see him accepting an offer like yours. Not with Bora$$. I’m willing to be proven wrong.

.268 .396 .524 with 4 homeruns.

So A-Rod, at least, is not REALLY doing his job as the lone right-handed power bat.

yeah, he’s merely hitting great against lefties instead of otherwordly.

seriously, a .920 OPS?

But, one could say that of the 3, he does the least well, and it couldn’t be that difficult to find someone who can replicate those numbers, at least against lefties.

???  should be a piece of cake.

He’s most definitely one of the best players in the game right now, and has about as good a track record as a player can have.  But he IS on the wrong side of 30, and he could potentially cost a LOT of money for a team that has been getting older and less successful for a few years now.  So far with the Yanks, ARod’s put up two MVP-type years that have been worth the money, and two mediocre years that would arguably not be worth the money.  But ARod is going to want to be paid for the GOOD years…

i don’t have a problem with any of these questions. and if a-rod opts out, the Yankees will let him walk away because like you said, there is a limit to the amount that any single player is worth. 

i would like for them to extend him.  even if he winds up making $25M a year, it can still work if the Yankees keep the Texas subsidy.

the only thing i objected to was the suggestion that he only got himself into shape b/c it’s a contract year when EVERYTHING i have ever heard about a-rod is that he works harder than anyone on the team.  he miscalculated in 2006 with the amount of bulk he thought he could carry, but it’s not like he was FAT b/c he was coasting on his laurels. 

that was all i was saying.

Too many Yankees fans want him around in pinstripes to see him break the career HR record. A circus like the Giants have going on with Bonds, all about the player, not about the team. No thanks

that would be in like 2013 at the very earliest.  i don’t see how people can really be thinking about that at this point.  and that’s assuming Bonds doesn’t DH for a few more years and tack on another 50-60 HRs.

So his great year is coming in his contract year. What about 2005, was that a contract year?

I’m not trying to say that ARod only plays well in contract years.  I’m pointing out that, in terms of a team wanting to “buy low, sell high”, the Yankees would in essence be “buying high” in extending ARod, which is not the optimal place you want to be.

And I agree with Don.  SG’s offer seems very low, considering Alfonso Soriano just got 8 years and $136M.

Of course, what I’d like to see happen is for ARod to lead the team to a World Series title, become a fixture on the Yankees, and make a run at 800 home runs in pinstripes.

I can’t see A-Rod signing for $25 million/year or less.  Boras will want more and point to this season as to why.  As Don pointed out, Yanks should tread carefully.  They don’t want to sink too much of their payroll on one player.

yup and others,

I can see where my original post sounds like I was trying to question ARod’s athletic integrity and commitment, which ARod doesn’t deserve.  I was more trying to warn against overpaying for a guy who, for whatever reason, has a great year right before free agency, especially when that player is on the wrong side of 30.  And just from my own observations of human nature in myself and others, I think there could be a subconscious “push” to excel in a walk year of a contract that doesn’t necessarily reflect on the character of the player, but that I’d want to consider if I were a GM.

Of course, the other side of this is that ARod is a pro who’s certainly lived up to his current contract, so he’s about as good a guy as any to throw a bunch of money at.