yup, Whelan could get picked.  but he could get returned later as he walks about a batter an inning.

As I said in the previous thread, I just don’t get protecting Shelley Duncan and Mike Dunn at the expense of Horne and the others.

You’ve got to watch out for teams like the Nationals, Royals and Padres. They could take guys like Horne and Whelan and ride them out for this year with 2010 or 2011 in mind. SG is right .. they need to start moving these guys before they have to make a hard decision with regards to the Rule 5 draft.

The first comment makes it look like you’re talking to yourself.

Quiet night, but there seems like a lot to talk about. Girardi’s comments (via Pete Abe) seem to imply a lot that the Yankees will make a move for an impact bat, either in the form of a CF or 1B.

It may make sense to try to make a blockbuster for a CF that we won’t see coming. But I could wake up tomorrow and think something different. RAB has a nice post on DeJesus for anyone looking to kill some time.

Would DeJesus be considered a blockbuster? I think getting someone like Granderson or Hamilton would be a blockbuster.

This analysis actually has Mike Cameron as the 12th best CF last year:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/15/634867/best-center-fielders-of-20

I was going to suggest looking into Adrian Gonzalez if the Padres are selling, but he’s younger than I thought and appears to be signed to a great contract.

The 1B analysis is awesome: the top hitting 1B are also great fielders.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/22/639856/best-first-basemen-of-2008

I don’t think DeJesus would be considered a ‘blockbuster’, but I would think the folks around these parts would certainly consider it a huge deal.

DeJesus seems like a nice player who plays strong defense, but he’s entering his age 29 season. I’d just as soon see what we have in Cabrera and Gardner. It’s not out of the realm of possiblity that a 24-25 year old figures something out and turns a corner.

.. of course, all trades really depend on price. Swisher didn’t get me too excited, until we actually traded for him and it ended up that we didn’t give up anything for him, reallyt.

TOTAL SPECULATION CORNER

From the sounds of the Sabathia negotiations, I feel like Sabathia would prefer to play elsewhere, but also realizes no one else is coming close to the Yankees’ offer, so he wants to stall and see if anyone comes close - and it appears as though the Yankees are getting tired of it. “We’ve made him an offer. It’s not going to be there forever,” says Hal.

I think Sabathia and his agent are just doing their due dilligence.

If another team had considered offering Sabathia, say, 6 years/$135M, then you’d have to think that they would have entered the negotiations by now and see if they could get him close to what they were hoping to pay.

My guess is that they Yankees offer did blow everyone else out of the water, and Sabathia and his agent are just waiting to see if any teams show up with an offer that they can use as leverage when dealing with Cashman.

Acquiring DeJesus probably falls under the same category as acquiring Swisher. Great move that improves the team, but not the big move that is required to turn them from a 88-90 win team to a 95-97 win team.

Great move that improves the team, but not the big move that is required to turn them from a 88-90 win team to a 95-97 win team.

Clearly no one player is going to make that kind of difference. 

Tex is clearly seen as being one of the players who could make the most difference in closing that win differential.

I think SG has Tex around 29 runs or so better than Swisher next year.

In the last thread SG estimated that getting Cameron to play CF would be a 24 run improvement compared to Melky/ Gardner.

It may sound strange but the most efficient way to improve the team next year is to get an average to above average CF.

That player could have an impact that’s comparable to Tex’s given how bad the baseline of Gardner/ Melky are.

Not a reason to not sign Tex.  But for next year’s club it’s central to them improving.

the big move that is required to turn them from a 88-90 win team to a 95-97 win team.

That sort of shift in one move would require replacing Giambi with Pujols (10 WAR versus 2.5 WAR).

Ok, I was talking about adding Teixiera and Sabathia, not one player.

On top of those big moves that I think are necessary, nice moves like Swisher, and potentially DeJesus, as has been proposed, are just that.. nice moves.

DeJesus’ contract is so cheap that it would not affect their decision on Teixiera on way or the other.  that would be the good thing.

but i have no idea what he would cost.

they need to start moving these guys before they have to make a hard decision with regards to the Rule 5 draft.

i am sure they have been trying.

Marquez was traded off the 40 man, and then they swapped Nunez for Texiera for what looks to be no other reason than the fact that Nunez needed to be protected and Texeira didn’t.

then they sold Rasner.

Cashman cleared 4 spots in the last week. 

Horne doesn’t really have any trade value, there is only so much he can do. 

i agree about Shelly Duncan though, not sure why they are holding onto him.

I’d just as soon see what we have in Cabrera and Gardner. It’s not out of the realm of possiblity that a 24-25 year old figures something out and turns a corner.

Sure, it’s not impossible, but it’s not exactly realistic either.  We need to start recognizing that all of the available data says that these guys are not viable major league starters.  People like to argue that Gardner’s never had a chance at a regular job, but when people turn 25 without getting that shot, there’s usually a reason or two.

DeJesus would make a nice half of a CF platoon if he came cheap.  But what’s the righthanded half?  Justin Christian?

And as of right now, Shelley Duncan is #2 on the depth chart at 1B.  None of us want to see a whole lot of him there in 2009, but they probably feel like they have to protect him at least until they have another warm body to pencil in.

I would think Miranda is as warm a body as Duncan.

DeJesus would make a nice half of a CF platoon if he came cheap.

i think we are getting too cute here.  DeJesus is a perfectly capable everyday CFer. 

he shows a platoon split, but it’s highly unlikely that one of the crappy minor leaguers like Christian would add anything over DeJesus’ weak side splits.

he wasn’t bad against LHP in 2008. 

don’t lefties with big splits tend to close their platoon splits over time if they are given enough ABs to “learn” how to hit lefties?  did i make that up?

DeJesus hit .307/.366/.452 in almost 600 PA’s last year.  that’s not to say if you had a big righty bat on your bench you wouldn’t pinch hit for him late in the game and put Gardner in, you probably would.  but i wouldn’t sit him for 25% of the games or whatever for what would likely be a very marginal, if any, improvement.

when people turn 25 without getting that shot, there’s usually a reason or two.

Not sure what else Gardner could have done to move through the system faster. 2005 in SI. 2006 between A+ and AA. 2007 between AA and AAA, then 2008 between AAA and the ML. Maybe he was a bit old when he was drafted and signed, but I fail to see how that was his fault.

this is something i have been curious about, and if SG has Play Index or maybe it’s an easy query of the Lehman Database, he could answer this:

how many seasons have there been in major league history where a player has an OBP of .370 or higher, a SLG% of .400 or lower, and 90 strikeouts or more??

i guess i am just trying to get a handle on how realistic it is to expect Brett Gardner’s skillset to translate to the majors. 

i know there are some speedy no-power guys who have managed good OBPs, but my gut tells me these guys made a lot more contact than Gardner. 

in other words, are Yankee fans expecting Brett Gardner to be a completely unique type of player or is this more common than i think?

I do have Play Index.  Here’s a list:

For single seasons, From 1901 to 2008, (requiring PA>=400, OBP>=.370, SLG<=.399, and SO>=90)

19 seasons match that criteria.

thanks SG.  unfortunately i get a “Your Query Was Broken” message when i click on that link.

is it hard to copy that info here?

Hmm, try this:

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/2v8h

in other words, are Yankee fans expecting Brett Gardner to be a completely unique type of player or is this more common than i think?

I don’t know about other fans.  What I expect is that Brett Gardner has some things he needs to work on if he wants to be a better player.  Specifically, he needs to cut down on his K’s.  I don’t think he’s ever going to be down in the 40’s or anything (assuming 600PA), but I think he can get down under 80.  I think that’s some of the stuff Long was working on him with at the end of last year, that helped him be more effective his second time around.  Become a better bunter to get on base (if you bunt for a hit you won’t strike out).  Concentrate more on slapping the ball to the other side; bat control which helps cut down on K’s.

I’m a big fan of Brett.  I think he’s a hard worker who will put in the effort, and I think his skill-set will allow him to adapt.  I’m not saying he can be the same exact player in the majors as he was in the minors and be successful.  He does have some things he needs to do better.  I think that’s the biggest thing that separates successful major-leaguers though.  They have the ability to adapt and improve on the things they need to, throughout their career.

Gardner doesn’t have to be a star to be a success for the Yankees.  If he can put up an OPS around .700, play above-average D (say +5), and steal 30-40 bases, he’ll be a low-cost, PRODUCTIVE player in CF, and give the Yankees a needed insurance-policy if AJax isn’t ready for next year.  If he fails to adapt and is a .600 OBP or worse (which would probably be around 25 SB), then he becomes a 4th/5th OF, which is still a good thing.  I, for one, am willing to take that risk next year.  Which is why I want them to get Tex, because then the offense can live with that performance, at least for a few months.

thanks SG, it worked.

here is my concern with him changing his approach:  his OBP in the minors is likely a function of him taking lots of pitches and working walks.  this also leads to lots of strikeouts. 

in the majors, pitchers have better control and better stuff, so the same approach will probably just lead to more strikeouts.

if he starts swinging more often and trying to slap the ball, he’s not going strikeout as much, but he’s not going to walk either.

i don’t disagree that he has the potential to be an ok player.  but i think the expectations some people have for his OBP are off a little.

John Sickels says Gardner = Jason Tyner with more walks.  Tyner has a career OBP of .314 and a BB rate of 4.6% per PA in the majors after a BB rate of 8.7% per PA in the minors.  Gardner had a minor league BB rate of 13.6% per PA.  If his BB rate translates at the same rate as Tyners, that’s a BB rate of 7.2% per PA.  If he hits .273, that gives him an OBP of around .329, which is right around league average.  Based on his projected ISO, that’s a SLG of .357.  A line of .273/.329/.357 is 4 runs below replacement level over 600 PA.  If he steals something like 19 of 24 bases, that puts him right at replacement level.  Then any non-SB baserunning and defensive value starts to get him over replacement level.

So the batting average is the question I think.  If he can hit .280+, he probably is an asset.  Under .280, and probably not.

if he starts swinging more often and trying to slap the ball, he’s not going strikeout as much, but he’s not going to walk either.

W/o knowing the nuts-and-bolts of his approach, I don’t know if this is completely true.  The approach change may not so much be swinging more, but shorten up on the bat and try to slap the ball to LF.  The thought being that now perhaps with 2 strikes he is still trying to pull the ball, which gets swinging K’s.  Still, if he walks 10 less times but strikes out 20 less, that’s probably a good thing.

So the batting average is the question I think.  If he can hit .280+, he probably is an asset.  Under .280, and probably not.

I think that’s fair.  His speed should help him get some IFH, which will help keep the average up.  I also think if he gets on base about 200 times, he’ll do a little better in the SB territory; especially as sometimes he’ll be on base as a PR in SB situations.  I think he could go more like 25/30, which I would imagine adds another 2-3 runs.

6 sb = 2 or 3 runs?

6 sb = 2 or 3 runs?

SB = .22 R
CS = -.38 R

6 sb = 2 or 3 runs?

Hmm, looks like a steal is worth about .25 runs or so, so yeah, it would be 1 or 2 runs, not 2 or 3.

Or, what SG just said (I added 6SB 0CS, so 6*.22=1.32).

Thanks, gents.

it’s highly unlikely that one of the crappy minor leaguers like Christian would add anything over DeJesus’ weak side splits

Well, yeah, but my point was more about DeJesus’ limitations than the value of any crappy minor leaguers.  You might think he’s a perfectly acceptable everyday CFer, but the Kansas City Royals don’t.  Doesn’t that tell us something?