Can you give us what the average number of wins was for the third place team in the AL east?  Just curious what the difference was between the #3 team in the East and other division winners. 

BTW, 100 wins as the “average”?  Sheesh.  Pretty insane when you think about it.

Can you give us what the average number of wins was for the third place team in the AL east?

Here are the averages for all five AL East slots:

1st: 100
2nd: 93
3rd: 89
4th: 80
5th: 71

BTW, 100 wins as the “average”?  Sheesh.  Pretty insane when you think about it.

Yeah.  I’d have to go back and look but I doubt that there’s been such a high average for any division leader since I started running these over the last 4-5 years.

If I did the arithmetic right, the AL East is 55 games over .500 against the rest of MLB.  That’s a .563 winning percentage.  It’s like the AL East averages out to a bit better than the Mets and the rest of MLB averages out to a bit worse than the Nationals.

Wow, Toronto has the best pitching in the bigs and they still finish 4th. I’d feel bad for them if they hadn’t just signed Kevin Millar.

A big part of Toronto’s good runs against projection is their defense.  I’d imagine if you gave all the teams an average defense, Toronto would probably fall out of the top slot.

So the Sox have a 1.5% better chance at the division that the Yankees?

So the Sox have a 1.5% better chance at the division that the Yankees?

No, that’s probably just a blip due to only running 100 seasons.  When I run 1000, I’d assume we’d see the Yankees win slightly more divisions than Boston, although really these numbers are basically saying the two teams are equivalent.

The Blue Jays should sign Manny Ramirez and really make this division interesting.

According to your projections, the Cubs have the best chance to make it to the postseason tournament.  Since the playoffs are a crapshoot, that means they have the best chance to win the World Series. 

You’re right.  It is early.

I sure would enjoy a Cubs-Yankees World Series though.

I sure would enjoy a Cubs-Yankees World Series though.

It’s a fact that Jeter has more Grand Slams against the Cubs than any other team…

vs. soriano’s line in the postseason…

.213 .263 .299

174 at bats and wow.

vs. soriano’s line in the postseason…

.213 .263 .299

But he did hit the home run that won the 2001 World Series.

Uh…..., or should have.

Not to bring this up again (but let’s be real, there is no avoiding it today) but I’m dreading A-Rod’s press conference.  Either

He’s going to get killed for not giving up his dealer (I hope).
or
If he gives up his dealer he is going to get killed because it is going to lead to other Rangers players.

It’s really a no win for him.

If he gives up his dealer he is going to get killed

unfortunately this might not be a metaphor.

i think he’ll read a statement, answer a handful of questions, and generally not offer anything new.

then again, every time he opens his mouth, you really have no idea what is going to happen.  he could answer every question “purple monkey diswasher” and it wouldn’t really surprise me.

But he did hit the home run that won the 2001 World Series.

kindof like how A-Rod hit the HR that won the 2004 ALCS…

Predictably enough, Selig doesn’t want any blame coming his way.

Someone should continuously mock his hair in an attempt to break him down, and get him to take responsibility.

Will A Rod be wearing purple lipstick and a fresh tint on the do for his big appearance? Does he really need his teammates by his side? Maybe a group hug?

Thanks for this analysis, SG.  It’s striking that the Yanks 3 huge free-agent signings were only enough for them to virtually equal the Sox.

I’d be interested in seeing a breakdown of relative edges between the Yankees and RS (and Rays, for that matter).  The RS project better at 2b, CF, and a corner?  but otherwise worse?

Oh yeah, DH too.

I’d be interested in seeing a breakdown of relative edges between the Yankees and RS (and Rays, for that matter). 

I can add that in when I start my looking ahead pieces in the next few weeks.  I already did the rotations here and here.

I don’t understand the RA for the Yankees and RS above given the rotation data - a delta of 7 vs a delta of 40-60, depending.  I would think the pens are similar at worst, and the 7-9 starters better for us.  I’d expect the RS to have better defense, but that’s already in your RSAR unless I’m confused.

Hmm, looks like your projection hates most of the Yankees pen (only Mo, Edwar, and Robertson under ERA=4), maybe that’s it.

Hate’s probably too strong, but yeah, it’s a little bearish on the Yankee pen.

You also have to remember that I am adding in innings for the 6-10 starters on every team when I run the season projections, which wouldn’t show up in the rotation comparisons linked in post 22.

You’ve got top 6 there, hence my “the 7-9 starters better for us”, modulo missing that you went up to 10.  It’s one louder.

Re the pen, I was surprised by Bruney’s projection compared to his last three seasons, which look world-beating/average/exceptional, though the ‘07 has the same stats as ‘06 + ‘08.

Yeah, I don’t like my Bruney projection at all.  CAIRO is penalizing him for his high BB rate (68 BB in 105 Yankee innings) and he’s being regressed heavily towards the mean since he’s only averaged about 38 innings a year from 2005-2008.  If I had to pick one guy who is going to beat his CAIRO projection handily, it’d be Bruney, although I do still have concerns about his command.

“he’s being regressed heavily towards the mean”

I suspected as much.  Is that the mean reliever?

So the model is that there are elite relievers who maintain their ability (but see Foulke or etc.) and then a bunch of scrubs who cycle in and out of decency?  And Bruney has to get put in the latter group until proved otherwise?  Is there an explanation for such a structure?  Maybe all or most elite relievers really should be starting.

Is that the mean reliever?

Right, I regress starters towards starters and relievers towards relievers.

So the model is that there are elite relievers who maintain their ability (but see Foulke or etc.) and then a bunch of scrubs who cycle in and out of decency?

I don’t think it’s quite that extreme.  I think there’s a middle ground of reasonably solid middle relievers, but in general relief performance is volatile because of the relatively small number of innings pitched in any given season.  Look at LaTroy Hawkins in 2008.  He put up a 5.71 ERA in 41 Yankee innings, then put up a 0.43 ERA in 21 Astro innings.  Yeah, there’s a league difference, but the AL isn’t 13 times better than the NL.  Maybe like 10 times better…

I have a feeling that most projection systems are probably pretty bad at predicting relief performances, but that may be something worth doing some actual research on.