So with ARod still missing ~50 games, the Yanks are still projected to win the east?  Sweet!  If it’s not too much, what’s 1 SD for the wins?  That’s probably even more telling…

I’ve noticed from some articles recently that the MSM already has two sets of stories written for the Yankees, and based on how they finish will be what set they release.

1) Yankees win and at least progress to the ALCS.  Yankees bought the berth.
2) Yankees don’t at least make it to the ALCS (if they make the playoffs but lose in the first round they lucked into the post-season).  Yankees philosophy of buying aging veterans proves that they don’t know how to win any more by building a team from within.

Both of course are wrong, but I obviously hope #1 is written!

Hey guys. Does anyone know what happened to Max Kellerman on 1050 ESPN radio? Did he get fired or something?

If it’s not too much, what’s 1 SD for the wins?  That’s probably even more telling…

Sure, refresh and you should see a new table with that info now.

Wow, I’d like to see the outrage from fans if the Pirates win 54 games.

So Baltimore is projected to score more runs than any team in the AL West and still come in last?  Can we quantify the strength of schedule drag relative to an average schedule that each team faces?

Also, what are you using for Koji Uehara’s stats?  How much play is there in Baltimore’s 851 RA?

So Baltimore is projected to score more runs than any team in the AL West and still come in last?  Can we quantify the strength of schedule drag relative to an average schedule that each team faces?

I looked at the strength of schedule penalty in this post a few months ago.  I figure somewhere in the area of 5-6 wins for Baltimore specifically.

I may try putting Baltimore in the AL Central (swapped with KC) or the NL West (swapped with Colorado) and see how they do.

Also, what are you using for Koji Uehara’s stats?

ZiPS has him projected to a 4.45 ERA.  I’ve got him starting 28-29 games, but I think I have to knock that down some given his recent innings totals (168 in 2006, 62 in 2007, 89 in 2008).  I should probably limit him to around 20 starts.

How much play is there in Baltimore’s 851 RA?

Their runs scored over 1 standard deviation ranged from 751 - 832.

Sure, refresh and you should see a new table with that info now.

Thanks!  So we have a pretty high degree of confidence that the Yankees will win more than 90 games.  I’m not going to start worrying unless they have less than 40 wins at the half-way point; if the Yanks have 45 wins and Tampa and Boston are both on pace to win over 100 games there’s not much that can be done about it…

“I’ve noticed from some articles recently that the MSM already has two sets of stories written for the Yankees, and based on how they finish will be what set they release.

1) Yankees win and at least progress to the ALCS.  Yankees bought the berth.
2) Yankees don’t at least make it to the ALCS (if they make the playoffs but lose in the first round they lucked into the post-season).  Yankees philosophy of buying aging veterans proves that they don’t know how to win any more by building a team from within. “

I agree that these stories are being written as we speak, but let me ask this:  Have we gotten to the point where it’s no longer enough for the Yankees to win the WS, they also have to win a P.R. battle over whether they deserved to win?  If so, that’s a pretty tall order.  Face it: the NYY will ALWAYS be perceived as the big, bad, corporate meanies of baseball.  It makes fans in other cities feel better to think of their own teams as “what baseball is really all about,” and they like to think of the Yankees as the villains.  The media plays along because that’s what the fans seem to want.  Just ignore it or, better yet, laugh it off.

I’m going to shelve the 20 worst seasons by position for now, and probably revisit it later.

Crap. I was enjoying learning about the Lute Boone’s of the world, and appreciating the sucky greatness of Horace Clarke. He has a whole era named after him, and his greatest achievement seems to be breaking up no-hitters in the ninth inning.

Have we gotten to the point where it’s no longer enough for the Yankees to win the WS, they also have to win a P.R. battle over whether they deserved to win?

Oh no, I was pointing this out as a critique of the MSM.  Given the recent ARod injury they’re coming out of the works about how this shows how the Yankees are an “old, fragile team”.  And often in the comments on those or other articles posters will attack the Yankees’s spending, which I think isn’t unique to blogs (also radio call-ins, people writing in to newspapers, etc). 

Just ignore it or, better yet, laugh it off.

I try not to ignore it - at least not when it is written - because sometimes in these articles and/or the comments there will be a nugget of useful (or just interesting) information.  Maybe this particular writer was able to interview a scout and talk about Brad Suttle.  Perhaps a commentator has an interesting piece of trivia about an injury to Craig Nettles.  Stuff that you may find only there.  Yeah, a lot of times it’s only garbage and I’m wasting my time.  And sometimes I get annoyed when I shouldn’t.  But if I one day have the answer to the Final Jeopardy question to win 50K that I found in a comment on Pete Abe’s blog, it’s all worth it!

How much play is there in Baltimore’s 851 RA?

Sorry, misread this question.  Their runs allowed over 1 SD ranged from 809-894.

his greatest achievement seems to be breaking up no-hitters in the ninth inning

Actually, his greatest achievement was breaking up double plays… while playing defense.

But if I one day have the answer to the Final Jeopardy question to win 50K that I found in a comment on Pete Abe’s blog, it’s all worth it!

You’ll never win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket.  So how many contestant auditions have you been to?

You’ll never win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket.  So how many contestant auditions have you been to?

I do buy lotto tickets.  And one of the things I would like to do one day is plan a trip to California and try to get on Jeopardy.  That’s probably sometime in the next 5-10 years, so I’ll let you know how that goes (and if I do make it, I’ll be sure to put, “posting on the RLYW” as a hobby).

What always confuses me about the Yankees “buying ” success is that people ignore/discount the importance of the business aspect when running a team.  Having a front office that is better at drafting and evaluating talent than other teams is admirable.  Yet having an owner that (while poorer than all owners initially) built his team and brand far better than all others over 30 years is despicable. 

The Yankees didn’t just magically become what they are now.  The Steinbrenner’s put a higher percentage back into their team than other owners, grew revenue (that again was reinvested at a high rate), built then built their own TV network, and now built their own stadium.  No other team has run the business side nearly as well. 

When the other owners put that much back into the team for 30 years then I will accept the “buying” success excuse.

So one sigma is about 6 wins above, which puts us 1/3 sigma up on the RS.

If ARod’s worth 6 wins to us, 30% of that is two wins, which would have put as at almost 100 wins.  Wow.  What’s different here wrt the earlier projections you made, which had ARod at about 100% but (iirc) a draw in the AL East?

What’s different here wrt the earlier projections you made, which had ARod at about 100% but (iirc) a draw in the AL East?

I’d wager a nickle it’s mostly because of the different projection-system (using ZIPS), with a little bit of 100 runs still having some noise in the results.

So one sigma is about 6 wins above, which puts us 1/3 sigma up on the RS.

Yeah, sigma is between 6-7 wins depending on the team.

Wow.  What’s different here wrt the earlier projections you made, which had ARod at about 100% but (iirc) a draw in the AL East?

Different projection systems and ongong roster updates primarily.  I’m tweaking the playing time as I read up on injuries and position battles throughout MLB as well, so that is a big part of it.

I’m pretty sure the overall average of all the projections will basically show the Yankees and Sox as even, with Tampa a couple of wins behind them.  I’m still waiting to see what Tampa does with David Price, it seems like he will start the year in AAA to keep his service time clock down a little.

A full season of Rodriguez would probably mean the Yankees would rate as slight favorites (by a win or two).

It will be important to have a fast start, in, like ages. The last time the Yankees were frontrunners (even though Shaq likely despised them) was in 2003, mostly due to the awesome pitching quartet of Clemens, Moose, Pettitte and Wells.

They would need something like that, and need Cano and Teixiera to start hot.

A full season of Rodriguez would probably mean the Yankees would rate as slight favorites (by a win or two).

It’s possible ARod will only miss about a dozen games (if he comes back on 4/20 that’s 13 games).  Maybe add in another 5-10 for getting some rest, so say 20 games is a best-case scenerio.  I’d think that would be enough to give them the 1-2 win edge.

Something that you can’t - you probably could but too much effort - do in the projections that I think will favor the Yankees as well.  One thing the Yankees have a lot of (relief pitching) is something that a lot of teams are looking for around the trade deadline.  That and the fact the Yankees can absorb bad contracts, and I think they’ll be in a good position to fill any holes; perhaps with some multi-team trades.

They would need something like that, and need Cano and Teixiera to start hot.

I think the Yankees have plenty of players on offense that are good candidates to get hot for a month.  Jeter, Posada, Matsui, Damon, Nady, etc.  Last year for example early on the Yankees had SEVERAL guys hurt or slumping at the same time in the beginning of the year.  If they can stay generally healthy (outside of ARod) in April I think they’ll score ~5 runs a game.  With their pitching, that should be good for 12-15 wins.  We’ll find out in a few weeks…

It’s possible ARod will only miss about a dozen games (if he comes back on 4/20 that’s 13 games).  Maybe add in another 5-10 for getting some rest, so say 20 games is a best-case scenerio.  I’d think that would be enough to give them the 1-2 win edge.

I think even if he is able to come back by 4/20, he’s probably going to need more frequent rest.  He’s still going to have the bone issue that caused the labrum tear and is going to need surgery after the season.  I would think that he’ll get at least one game off each week or so as a precaution.

I’d sign up right now for 120 games.

But I am neither a doctor nor an athletic trainer, nor do I play one on the internets.

I’d sign up right now for 120 games.

I’m an optimist by nature, so I go with the better case.  There’s also the possibility that his “day off” would sometimes be at DH.  Also, I think how much time he gets off in the 2nd half will be partly based on how the Yankees are doing in the standings.  If they’re 10 games up on July 1st I think he’ll get more time off than if they’re 4 games back.

But I’m not a manager; though I do play an armchair one on the internet.

“I’m still waiting to see what Tampa does with David Price, it seems like he will start the year in AAA to keep his service time clock down a little.”

I hate baseball finances.  The only considerations about whether to play a great prospect like Price should be development, health, and roster construction.

Apropos, is the point to take advantage of some quantized thing (the check is made at the end of the season, or counted in 1/n years increments), or to maximize his talent during the time he’s cheap?

How many early-to-midgame blowouts/year do we expect with this lineup, taking the division’s pitching into account?

I am neither a doctor nor an athletic trainer, nor do I play one on the internets.

Who cares?  All that matters is whether you’ve ever stayed at a Holliday Inn Express.

is the point to take advantage of some quantized thing (the check is made at the end of the season, or counted in 1/n years increments), or to maximize his talent during the time he’s cheap?

The point is to increase the time period when his cost remains relatively low.  Also, in this case there would seem to be an element of asset protection involved, since Price has exactly one season of professional baseball under his belt.  He raced all the way from high A to the majors, throwing a total of 129.1 innings.  They probably don’t wouldn’t him making 33 major league starts this year even absent the financial implications.

I hate baseball finances.  The only considerations about whether to play a great prospect like Price should be development, health, and roster construction.

Apropos, is the point to take advantage of some quantized thing (the check is made at the end of the season, or counted in 1/n years increments), or to maximize his talent during the time he’s cheap?

I think generally, the idea is to control a player’s rights for an additional year. You sacrifice a little in year ‘n’ for a gain in year ‘n + 6’.

If Price starts the year in the Tampa Bay rotation, he’d be eligible for free agency after 2014 at age 28.  If he is brought up in May, he’d be eligible for free agency after 2015 at age 29.  If the falloff between Price and whomever is going to be pitching in his stead for that month isn’t more than a win or so, it is probably the prudent move.

But with how tight the AL East looks this year, that one win could be the difference between making the postseason or not.  Is that worth it?  I couldn’t tell you.

As a fan, I agree with you, I wish teams would put their best talent on the field without business considerations.  Still, these are businesses and we can’t really expect them not to operate that way.

Ugh.  They probably wouldn’t want him making 33 major league starts this year even absent the financial implications.

FYI, Price seems to have a rather complicated long-term contract that covers 2007-2012 and pays him different salaries depending on whether he’s in the majors or minors.  He can void the salary and file for arbitration in any year when he’s eligible, but he won’t be arbitration eligible before 2012 no matter what they do with him.  And they’d probably have to keep him in AAA for more than two months to keep him from being eligible in 2012.

Max Kellerman is gone from ESPN radio; rather abruptly.  Wonder what went down.  On the one hand he was a big Yankee fan and a follower of Sabremetrics on the other hand he was a self promoting narcissist and a hopless shill for his sponsors.

I read somewhere that the Yankees will be in last place on May 7.

Kellerman is the only guy worth listening to on radio.  He made fun of all the guys most of us make fun of.  I hope he’s not going to Mets Radio.

Wonder what went down.

New producers and management cleaning house.  At least according to wikipedia.

Daily News is speculating that he’ll be Francesspool’s new sidekick.  We should start a pool on when Kellerman beats the living crap out of fat Mikey.

The A-Rod counter is off to a fast start this year. Damn recession.

Holy cow, 67 before the season even began…And just wait until Ms. Roberts’ <strike>trashtastic</strike> hard-hitting exposé comes out in April!

They would need something like that, and need Cano and Teixiera to start hot.

We know Cano is a slow starter, and Teixeira is as well, though to a lesser extreme.  Teixeira’s career monthly splits for OPS:

Mar/Apr:  .787
May:  .883
June:  .926
July:  .904
Aug:  .982
Sep:  .997

In other words, don’t freak out if Teixeira gets off to a mediocre start.

I think even if he is able to come back by 4/20, he’s probably going to need more frequent rest.  He’s still going to have the bone issue that caused the labrum tear and is going to need surgery after the season.  I would think that he’ll get at least one game off each week or so as a precaution.

I have the same hip condition, minus the labrum tear. He may need extra rest, but my guess is that they are just extra careful with him, if he feels discomfort they’ll DH him or sit him. The extra rest would be super conservative in my opinion, I think they just need to be very aware of it. Although I’m basing this off of my experience with it which encompasses almost entirely linear movement, so I’m not sure how lateral movement would impact it.

The A-Rod counter is off to a fast start this year. Damn recession.

I know, it’s a full-time job keeping that thing updated so far.

[36] From my POV your time could be better spent.

Another extremely, extremely tiny sliver of a silver lining about A-Rod’s injury (with the other one being that by the time he’s healthy, people likely will not be as mad, especially grateful Yankee fans) is that his injury should hurt Roberts’ book. It is not a coincidence that she timed its release for the beginning of the season - with him not being involved in the beginning of the season, that can’t help her sales.

How many early-to-midgame blowouts/year do we expect with this lineup, taking the division’s pitching into account?

It’s tough to say.  This offense is not nearly as good on paper as the 2006-2007 vintage so I’d assume it would be less frequent than in years past.  Then again, the pitching should be better this year, so that may help allow smaller leads to hold up more frequently.

I think Joe Girardi may want to make more frequent use of defensive substitutions late in games this year.  If the Yankees have a decent lead after seven innings, you could theoretically have the following people on the field:

C - Molina (+2) replacing Posada (-6)
1B - Teixeira (+4)
2B - Cano (0)
3B - Ransom (+2 but SSS concerns) replacing Rodriguez (-3)
SS - Jeter (-7)
LF - Damon (+4)
CF - Gardner (+15 but SSS concerns)
RF - Swisher (+5) replacing Nady (-1) assuming Nady starts.

All defensive numbers are per 150 games, except for catcher, which are for 140.  Non catcher numbers are an average of projected zone rating and Fangraphs UZR.

So the starting lineup would be something like -9 per 150 games without Gardner.  The lineup with those defensive replacements would be something like +10 per 150 games without Gardner.  So that’s a delta of 19 runs per 150 games assuming Gardner’s a constant even if his +15 way overstates his true ability.

I’m not sure exactly how to translate that to wins, but I would assume that once you have a lead of a certain amount, improving your run prevention is more important than keeping your main offensive guys in.  Plus you can rest Posada and Rodriguez if there are concerns about their health.

Then again, the Yankee pen looks like they’ll be ringing up a lot of Ks if things go well, so maybe the value of the defense is not as critical as it may otherwise be.

Regarding the run scoring in the division, you’ve got 4 of the top 5 projected run prevention teams in the AL in the AL East, at least according to ZiPS.  That may suppress the offense a fair amount. ZiPS loves Tampa’s pitching and defense, to the point that they project to allow fewer runs than anyone, even everyone in the NL.

“Plus you can rest Posada and Rodriguez if there are concerns about their health.”

Right, that was the intent behind my question.  One could say average 2008 and 2007 for offensive blowouts, and assume no defensive ones given the improved staff, to get an estimate of the innings to be saved.

I personally believe it’s intellectually inflexible to hold Brett Gardner’s minor league track record against him in terms of predicting his value at the next level, since it’s pretty apparent he has overhauled his entire hitting style. If the positive alterations made to his swing are sustainable, and all signs point to Gardner having a great work ethic, why try predicting his future value by citing an inferior player model that is now obsolete? Seems stubborn to me.

what’s the alternative?  guessing?

Guessing? Nahhh. More like scouting. Which is actually more like educated guessing. 

Listen, if Gardner is a different hitter than the model accumulating those minor league numbers [strikeout rate and such] why would that track record mean anything, today, and going forward?

Let me make a comparison. Carlos Pena is a far more talented baseball player than Brett Gardner. Obviously. But at some point in his career [working with Kevin Long ironically enough] Pena overhauled his approach at the plate, becoming a far more effective hitter. I think everyone would agree Carlos Pena today is a radically different player compared with the Carlos Pena of 2005. Same guy, different hitting style, different results. Yeah, the statistics are in the books, but what is the predictive quality of Carlos Pena’s early career numbers at this point? I think the same train of thought applies with Gardner. I can’t believe he’s destined for failure this season or beyond for weaknesses that may have been, in fact, neutralized, due to adjustments and hard work. Let’s wait and see.

I have no problem with the stats. They just may not apply to this player anymore, due to improvements made to his game.

If one can ex post facto select a non-negligible sample of players who have changed their swings and suddenly greatly improved their performance over projection, then you have the start of an argument - but I’d still like to see a theory about why those fixes took so long to be implemented.  Maybe Pena was immature and finally started concentrating.  I’m guessing (or relying on Chad Jennings to think) that Gardner’s always been coachable.

Otherwise you’ve got a small sample of improved performance in spring training plus our common hope.

I think we are all hoping that Gardner has a significant talent change, but people don’t jump from Cairo to A-rod, so even after a talent change, stats aren’t completely meaningless.  Also, the percentiles that projection systems have can be interpreted as either probabilities or likely talent levels.

44. You’re actually dead on regarding Pena. “Moneyball” intimated that he was immature, to the exact effect that he was unwilling to change his swing and adjust to the pitchers, and this is why the A’s soured on him. 

45. I think you’re right about the projection systems hitting a guy’s peak and valley, but I think Gardner is a special case because basically the biggest drawback about him, as it concerns his game, is the contact rate. I think that’s something that would effect all of his projections, even the optimistic ones, and may have been fixed. 

So we’ll see on Gardner. I’m just attempting to counter the arguments that he’s the next Jason Tyner or Joey Gathright. I think if he didn’t get better, that would be the case. How much better is he? Obviously spring training isn’t going to tell us that. Time will tell. I am leaning toward the positive, obviously. I’m hoping we’ve got a burner willing to take a walk.

If you haven’t seen it, head over to Nomaas.  There’s a nice two-part interview with Brett Marshall.  The kid seems to be cocky, but in a good way.  Or at least, good if he’s on your team way.

On Gardner’s possible “talent change,” seems to me we’re not talking about a huge metamorphosis here.  It’s not a stretch to imagine that Gardner could go from being a decent minor leaguer to a decent (as opposed to mediocre or poor) major leaguer.  That would represent a substantial improvement in his performance, but not anything unprecedented.

I think everyone would agree Carlos Pena today is a radically different player compared with the Carlos Pena of 2005. Same guy, different hitting style, different results. Yeah, the statistics are in the books, but what is the predictive quality of Carlos Pena’s early career numbers at this point?

Terrible example.  Carlos Pena was a monster in the minors, with tons of walks and homers.  He had decent success at the major league level for a while, and then stopped developing the way most people thought he would.  Lots of teams gave up on him, and lots of other teams passed on him when he was freely available.  Then he got another shot and finally started living up to, and maybe even exceeding, the potential that everybody knew he had all along.  He didn’t transform himself into a fundamentally different kind of hitter.

I think the same train of thought applies with Gardner. I can’t believe he’s destined for failure this season or beyond for weaknesses that may have been, in fact, neutralized, due to adjustments and hard work.

As much as we’d all like to see this kid succeed, the evidence that any of those weaknesses have been neutralized is non-existent.  And that’s being very charitable.  Twenty-six plate appearances in games that don’t count.  Yeah, he’s only struck out once and he’s shown unexpected pop, but he’s also only walked twice.  If I was going to decide on the basis of this sample that he’s transformed his game and will henceforth sustain contact rates and isolated power that he’s never shown in the past, then I would also be freaking out that he’s forgotten how to work the count and take a walk.

The reality is that players do not transform themselves over the course of a single off-season, no matter how hard they work.  But the reality is also that no transformation is necessary for Brett Gardner to have reasonable success at the major league level.  Incremental improvements in contact and power without sacrificing too much in the way of patience would suffice.

The reality is that players do not transform themselves over the course of a single off-season, no matter how hard they work.

Not without roids they don’t.

I’m just attempting to counter the arguments that he’s the next Jason Tyner or Joey Gathright.

And if anyone here ever said that, your post may make more sense.  I’m pretty sure no one here is speaking in absolutes about Gardner.  We have our thoughts and ideas based on his stats and his scouting reports, but we also know that we have no idea how he’s going to end up.

I think if he didn’t get better, that would be the case. How much better is he? Obviously spring training isn’t going to tell us that.

Then how do you suggest we project him?  POOMA?

I’d like to think most of the readers here know that projections are just educated guesses with inherent limitations.  I also think most of the readers here know that player talent is not static and that projections need to be viewed with that in mind.  If they don’t, then I’m not doing a good enough job of stressing that.

But most importantly, I think the readers here know that 10 good spring training games by Gardner aren’t conclusive proof that “it’s pretty apparent he has overhauled his entire hitting style”.

My attitude is, show me.  I’m pulling for the kid.

But most importantly, I think the readers here know that 10 good spring training games by Gardner aren’t conclusive proof that “it’s pretty apparent he has overhauled his entire hitting style”.

Yeah there’s some anecdotal evidence that his hitting style changed.  But spring-training isn’t proof of anything.  It’s certainly *better* that he’s succeeding now than not, if nothing else than to give him confidence.  Especially for a player like Gardner starting off well in the first month or so is important, and having confidence going into the season is good.  But the only conclusion we can draw off of Gardner’s spring is that he’s working hard, which we already knew he would.

Not without roids they don’t.

Even Barry Bonds needed two full years of working like a fiend while availing himself of the entire veterinary pharmacopeia to go from being merely the second best leftfielder in baseball history to the second coming of Babe Ruth.

Damn. I’ll be so bummed if this turns out to be accurate. I mean, if we only win one game of that season-closing 2.8-game series, that will be embarassing.