Several key factors to Boston being over .700 is that they’ve got a lot of guys playing over their heads. They have to come back down to Earth at some point, right?

No. Never coming back down to earth! Staying in the stratosphere forever! Please?

The problem for the Yankees is that although Boston is playing over their heads right now, even when they come back down to their true talent level (a .600ish winning% or so?), the Yankees have to outplay them by 8.5 games to catch up. New York has a lot of talent, but that’s going to require them to play at least a bit over THEIR heads.

The Yankees need to win as many cames as they can. If they can’t catch Boston, there is no reason they cant finish ahead of the Tigers, White Sox, Twins, Angels, whoever…

The hole is so deep right now that it’s not really worth thinking about “catching” the Red Sox. Just win.

Several key factors to Boston being over .700 is that they’ve got a lot of guys playing over their heads. They have to come back down to Earth at some point, right?

They’ve got maybe three or four guys over their heads (Wakefield, probably Lowell, probably Okajima, maybe Youkilis) right now. At the same time, they’ve gotten nothing out of Drew or Manny so far this year, both of whom should rebound in the same way that the others guys come down to earth. It’s hardly impossible for the Yankees to catch them, but the Red Sox are a legitimately good team all the same.

I couldn’t care less about Boston. The Yankees merely need to focus on playing well. If and when they do, things will likely take care of themselves, and they will have an opportunity to win the division or the wild card. If that doesn’t happen, so be it. They are accumulating the kind of quality pitching prospects that. along with their payroll, will enable them to compete for championships for many years to come.

“They’ve got maybe three or four guys over their heads (Wakefield, probably Lowell, probably Okajima, maybe Youkilis) right now.”

And Donnelly, and Romero, and Beckett, and Alex Cora, and probably Tek.

It’s possible beckett is playing over his head, but he’s also an awesome pitcher, and 2006 was more of an outlier than a good season this year would be.

Beckett put up a 132 ERA+ in 2003 over 142 IP. Since then, he’s put up ERA+s of 108, 119, and 96. He’s over his head, and this year would be more of an outlier then last year.

It’s hardly impossible for the Yankees to catch them, but the Red Sox are a legitimately good team all the same.

i can’t disagree. 

i believe the Sox will go as far as their health carries them.

i think some players exceeding expectations while others are lagging expectations is a typical state of affairs for any snapshot of a baseball team during the season.

what has been atypical i think is that the Sox have had 100% (pardon the hyperbole) PERFECT health.

now, the 2005 White Sox went the whole season with the same 5 starters in their rotation, so it can happen.

but i think with the talent on the Sox and their headstart, the only way the Yankees catch them is if their pitching staff suffers some significant injuries.

i’ll keep my eyes on the wildcard for now. the yanks need to put some distance between them and .500 before they worry about anything.

Beckett put up a 132 ERA+ in 2003 over 142 IP. Since then, he’s put up ERA+s of 108, 119, and 96. He’s over his head, and this year would be more of an outlier then last year.

but is it unprecedented for a pitcher of his age and talent to suddenly put it all together?

“but is it unprecedented for a pitcher of his age and talent to suddenly put it all together? “

No, but it’s going to take more then 50 innnings to convince me that he has. He hasn’t pitched against any of the good AL Central teams, he gave up 4 ER to the Yanks, and he’s got blister problems again. He’s always K’ed batters at a good rate. I’m not convinced.

And Donnelly, and Romero, and Beckett, and Alex Cora, and probably Tek.

Donnelly and Romero have mostly pitched in low leverage spots - that sort of performance in 10 innings from a reliever is hardly worth mentioning.

Beckett I disagree that he’s pitched over his head, but that’s a longer debate than is worth having here.

Cora has certainly played over his head, and it’s come in some clutch spots, so he could be listed.

Varitek - I don’t see how a .272 EQA is over his head - PECOTA projected him to a .282 EQA.

the 2005 White Sox went the whole season with the same 5 starters in their rotation, so it can happen.

The White Sox actually missed 10 starts from El Duque - I think the 2003 Mariners were the last team to not have anybody miss a start.

The White Sox actually missed 10 starts from El Duque - I think the 2003 Mariners were the last team to not have anybody miss a start.

my bad, i thought i read that somewhere.  guess i could have looked it up.

maybe the soundbite was that they only used 6 starters the whole season.

It definitely does feel like they need to go out and win 5 games a night. Let’s take it 1 game at a time, make some room above .500, lock up the wild card, and then go win the division. With good pitching and good hitting everything will take care of itself.

Enough of this Boston talk (even though I brough it up). Some legit discussion topics / questions:

- Does anyone have any news on what Igawa is going through in Tampa? Does he have any starts scheduled?

- Andy Phillips again is proving he doesn’t belong in AAA. He’s at .328/.417/.544. What do you with him? Maybe bring him up for 2 weeks, hope he mashes and then throw him out there as trade bait?

Andy Phillips again is proving he doesn’t belong in AAA. He’s at .328/.417/.544.

So what is it about Phillips game that makes him a AAAA slugger?  I am serious, because he always crushes AAA pitching and looked terrible in the majors last year.  Is it that he can’t handle Major League breaking balls from RHP?

Andy Phillips again is proving he doesn’t belong in AAA. He’s at .328/.417/.544. What do you with him? Maybe bring him up for 2 weeks, hope he mashes and then throw him out there as trade bait?

that would be great, but Phillips is only 6 weeks removed from passing untouched through waivers, i’m not sure how much interest he’d get.  he’s 30, he should be dominating AAA.

I don’t see Phillips, who cleared waivers while making the league minimum, having any trade value.

Regarding Igawa, I heard they’re making him watch tape of people like Mark Buehrle and they’re going to try and rebuild him from his motion on up.  I didn’t like the signing at the time, and I really don’t like it now.  It sounds like they overpaid for a guy who may never end up being a useful pitcher at the major league level with any consistency.

Oh, and I have all but ceded the divsion to the Red Sox this year.  Unless the Red Sox experience a crazy, unlucky rash of injuries there is no way the Yankees catch them this year.  I do though think the Yankees can still win 90-92 games this year and hopefully the AL Central will beat up on itself enough for that to win a Wild Card.  I still haven’t decided if I’ll be happy with the Yankees winning the Wild Card as I generally hate it, but we’ll see.

I don’t like the wild card either, but I’ll take wild card + world championship over division plus first round exit.

“Donnelly and Romero have mostly pitched in low leverage spots - that sort of performance in 10 innings from a reliever is hardly worth mentioning. “

Throw in Kyle Snider and you’ve got 34 innings of relief ball that is way over what should be expected.

“Beckett I disagree that he’s pitched over his head, but that’s a longer debate than is worth having here.”

Agreed, no one is going to convince anyone of anything until much later in the season.

“Varitek - I don’t see how a .272 EQA is over his head - PECOTA projected him to a .282 EQA. “

Objectively, he’s not over his head. In my mind, I was convinced he was done. I was wrong.

I don’t see Phillips, who cleared waivers while making the league minimum, having any trade value.

I agree, but he’s got to fit in somewhere. He mashes in AAA and he sucks in the bigs. He can field 1B well and play 2B or 3B. He’s obviously not going to be the cornerstone of anything, but as an add-on, who knows.

It’s too early to make any pronouncements about the season, or who is going to win what.  It was just a few years ago that the Orioles were the toast of the town, and were certain to win the division, I think as late as the All Star break.  Then, poof, gone.

Now I’m certainly not saying the Sox are going to go the way of Baltimore (they’re better).  But I see no reason why the Yankees can’t go 15-5 and Boston go 5-15 over the next 20 games.  Not saying it is going to happen, but over 20 games all you need is a few good pitching outings, a few bounces to go your way, and you can win 75% of your games (or have the opposite happen and lose 75%).  If that happens, the Yankees are 1 win ahead of Boston (though technically I think they would be a game back), with better than half the season left.

Don’t know if any of that will happen, but I’m going to try to enjoy the games as they are, and let worrying about the post-season wait until oh, mid-August.

I know some of the Red Sox are over-performing and some are under-performing, but as a team they are clearly WAY over-performing, unless you think they are a true 114 win team.  Their pitching staff has a combined 136 ERA+, I am having trouble finding one in history that good (although I didn’t look too hard). 

I am not saying they aren’t good, but .700 is clearly way above what they should do.  I think they are a .600 team when healthy, much the way I felt the Yankees were a .600 team when healthy.  Unfortunately this means it’s unlikely the Yankees will catch them this year.

Oh god.. I just realized. Someone please tell me the MLB EI feed won’t bring Hawk Harrelson into my living room tonight.

If we can just get a few lucky breaks where they lose and we win’ we can get it down to 5 or 4.Then we need to win the head to head which I think we can.Then you are looking at 2 or 3 games down the stretch where anything can happen.Let’s try and stay positive I think next week at home against them is crucial we must win 2 if not all 3!!!

About Igawa:  I am confused.  Can anyone explain this?

Has he always had bad mechanics?  His numbers in Japan (usually considered to be about AAA level, right?) are excellent.  Was he as inconsistent there?  If he has always been this Jeckyll-and-Hyde, then he would have had to really and absolutely been dominating in his Jeckyll starts to put up those stats.  Is that his history?  Philco, do you know?

Is this something the f.o. just blew?  I am reminded of those stories (who knows how true?) about how they didn’t really scout Contreras, just saw his 2-seamer and assumed he could blow batters away with a 4-seamer. 

Anyway, if anyone knows the Igawa story, help us out!  He did look good in some starts.  The guy has, what, 6 years of sucess in Japan behind him.  It’s easy to wonder if the Yankees are overreacting to a bad month.

Unless Abreu, Cano and Melky stop sucking; unless Giambi and Damon get healthy;
unless Wang returns to form, and unless Mariano become Mariano then we can just foggeddaboutit!

Unless Abreu, Cano and Melky stop sucking; unless Giambi and Damon get healthy;
unless Wang returns to form, and unless Mariano become Mariano then we can just foggeddaboutit!

True, that.

I recall that Igawa was quoted a few weeks ago to the effect that in Japan he was sometimes passed over in the rotation because he was having trouble getting the ball down.  Not very encouraging!  By the way when are Hughes and/or Igawa scheduled to make minor leage starts?  Will the Yankees keep Villone and send Henn down, trade him(Phils), or release him?

Has he always had bad mechanics?  His numbers in Japan (usually considered to be about AAA level, right?) are excellent.

I think the problem is that his numbers in Japan weren’t that excellent. His last season, he allowed 23 HRs in 172.1IP - that’s a very high HR rate for a guy in Central League (the Japanese equivalent of the NL, without a DH, and generally considered to have a weaker talent base than the Pacific League). His K rate was good (7.5 K/9), but not so good that it projected as a plus peripheral even in the U.S. And he walked 60 guys - again, not a great BB rate.

Really, the HR rate projected to be a problem pretty much right away. Combine that with only “OK” control, and similarly only “OK” K rates, and you’ve got a pitcher who is a very good bet to struggle. If you’re going to allow HRs at that rate (and keep in mind, HR rates in Japan are way lower than they are here), then you need either tremendous control, or you need to miss a lot of bats to be successful. He didn’t offer that.

There’s a reason a lot of scouts were skeptical of the guy. From a cursory examination, he looks to have good numbers because his ERA was pretty good, but when you break down the peripherals, the warning signs were there.

I think the problem is that his numbers in Japan weren’t that excellent. His last season, he allowed 23 HRs in 172.1IP - that’s a very high HR rate for a guy in Central League (the Japanese equivalent of the NL, without a DH, and generally considered to have a weaker talent base than the Pacific League). His K rate was good (7.5 K/9), but not so good that it projected as a plus peripheral even in the U.S. And he walked 60 guys - again, not a great BB rate.

most of your overall points are valid, but these #‘s are from 2005.  in 2006, he gave up 17 HRs in 209 IP.  also, his career K/9 was 8.5, and it was 8.4 in 2006 with 49 BB’s in 209 IP.

his 2006 was much better than his 2005, which i’m sure factored into the Yankees’ thinking.

most of your overall points are valid, but these #’s are from 2005.  in 2006, he gave up 17 HRs in 209 IP.  also, his career K/9 was 8.5, and it was 8.4 in 2006 with 49 BB’s in 209 IP.

Whoops. Good catch.

Yanks called up Villone

Who got sent down?  Rasner?

I’m guessing Henn-Rasner is starting over the weekend against Mets

I hope they call up Villone to trade him down the line.  I can’t see him saving the bullpen - not with the way Torre abuses him.

Last year Torre struggled to abuse more than two pitchers at once, but this year with the rotation in early shambles he abused about five guys simultaneously for a spell. Villone coming in now might be further respite for Proctor and Bruney, who can pick up being abused in July if Villone can pitch well on a nightly basis for the next 45 days or so.

If the starters pitch deeper you won’t have to worry that poor Villone is ‘abused’. As if Villone is worth much.

I wish you guys would name for us all the managers who don’t ‘abuse’ their bullpen. Really, this is silly.

Dusty Baker.

yay magglio!