The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, August 27, 2007

So, who gets Moose’s spot in the Rotation?

Obviously, Mike Mussina was again awful tonight. With the Yankees in jeopardy of missing the postseason, it's very likely that they may not risk running him out there again in his next turn.

So that of course begs the question, who can start in his stead? According to Jayson Stark, the following pitchers have cleared waivers:
Steve Trachsel, Jose Contreras, Josh Towers, Odalis Perez.

None of those guys seem like much of a choice, so here's a list of the possible in-house candidates and their MLEs (major league equivlancies) plus any time they've spent in the majors this year.

Last First W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
*Kennedy Ian 8 7 0 4.15 26 25 141 131 65 14 66 109
*White Steven 4 6 0 5.01 17 16 97 113 54 11 34 41
DeSalvo Matt 6 10 0 5.02 25 24 127 135 71 11 73 74
Wright Chase 7 12 0 6.25 26 25 144 171 100 32 77 59
Igawa Kei 5 8 0 6.26 24 23 132 156 92 32 51 99
Clippard Tyler 6 7 0 6.37 24 24 113 134 80 22 67 69
*Not on 40 man roster

Ian Kennedy is the best option according to these numbers, but the Yankees are supposedly not considering him since he's up against an innings cap. Next up are Steven White and Matt DeSalvo. White has always had a reputation for having good stuff, but never the results to go with it. Also a consideration, neither Kennedy or White are on the 40 man roster so a move would have to be made. That's not a huge deal, I'm sure they can DFA someone like Jim Brower.

We've seen DeSalvo, Wright, Clippard, and Igawa and none have been very good. If I had to choose one of them I'd probably try Igawa again.

I suppose the Yankees should try White on the off-chance that unfamiliarity and plus stuff translates to a few good starts. Other than that, I'd run Igawa out there on the condition that he pitches six innings every start, regardless of how bad he is. The Yankees cannot afford to get three inning starts going forward.

Mussina's body has failed him. He lost his fastball, and he hasn't been able to compensate. It's not his fault, and I don't think his character should be criticized. I thought keeping Moose was a smart idea at the time, although I preferred the Yankees picking up his option and paying a bit more for a one year committment, in case this happened. He still projected to be at least an average starter this year.

The AL East race is basically over now. Unless the Yankees sweep Boston in the series starting tomorrow they don't have a chance. The playoff chase is still very much alive though, so I'm not about to give up on this team yet. .
--Posted at 9:16 pm by SG / 46 Comments | - (1083)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Brackman to the 60 day DL, that should clear a roster space, no?

Yes, it should.  I think they need to clear spots for ‘a third catcher’ and Doug M though.  Not sure who else they can dump.

Sean Henn.

They can also dump Kevin Reese.  I don’t think Kevin Thompson needs to be on the 40 man roster either.

FWIW:

Buster Olney is apparently already saying he believes it will be White.

Mussina is a victim of his own stubborness. The Yankees, as Stick Michael has said publicly, have wanted him to try weight training to see if it might add a mph or two to his FB. He has refused. It’s time to turn the page.

Please don’t waste a roster spot on Eye Chart. He will take PT away from Giambi, Betemit, and Duncan, all of whom have more value.

they should just dump Doug M.  they already have the poor man’s version in Andy Phillips anyway.  how sad is it that Doug M. is Andy Phillips with “more pop”?

I posted this at the end of the last thread, but maybe it’s still relevant.

Whoever replaces Mussina - Igawa, Karstens, White, Kennedy, or Guidry - only needs to pitch three times.  If you look at the remaining schedule and knock wood that Pettite, Clemens, Wang, and Hughes can pitch every turn on their regular 4 days rest without incurring injury, then there are only 3 starts left to account for: Sep. 1 (Tampa at home), Sep. 15 (at Fenway), and Sep. 26 (at Tampa).  You don’t need a starter for the off days on Sep. 6, 10, and 20.  This isn’t ideal but if you don’t go all out to make the playoffs… well then there is no playoffs, so who cares?  Our chances are still strong to catch Seattle as we have a weaker schedule remaining, with our two good starters and our two average starters pitching 28 of those 31 games.  And some guys who can hit the ball fairly well when Justin Verlander isn’t pitching.

This also raises the question of why it’s so bad to call up Kennedy.  I bet he could give us more than any of the alternatives over the course of five innings.  Three times five is fifteen.  Is fifteen innings going to make his arm fall off?  And shouldn’t Cashman be more afraid of losing 2-8 games of playoff gate revenue than of starting Kennedy’s arb clock six months early?  I’m not saying pitch Kennedy because what the hell do I know about MLEs and so on, but I’m just saying some of the logic as to not pitching him seems somewhat faulty.

You make an excellent point, ABD.  I still believe, though, that the FO is going to be rather careful with Kennedy and throw White out there.  Right now, Mussina is just not a major league caliber pitcher.  He’s a right-handed version of Bruce Chen - which isn’t much of anything.  Given how poor Tampa pitches, if a guy like White can pitch five innings and give up “only” 3-4 runs, that may be enough to win the game.

If this team does what it usually does, they’ll sweep Boston and then lose 3 of 4 or something like that.

Here’s to the outside chance of still winning the division.  But if they don’t, make the playoffs.. please!!!! And if they do, looks like Moose won’t be getting the ball in any of the games.

I get the caution.  I’m glad Hughes started the season in Scranton.  I’ve been on board with the Joba rules.  Etc.  Etc.  However, I feel this situation can be classified as the same type of emergency that brought Hughes up in May and Joba in August.  Kennedy is at 141 innings.  So by the Kennedy rules his season is already over.  Make the requisite moves on the 60 man and 40 man (as if that’s so difficult) and start him on Sep. 1.  He pitches a maximum of 85 pitches or 5 innings, whichever he finishes first.  Then you see where you stand two weeks later on Sep. 15.  That’s the Boston game.  If you are still in the thick of the wild card race, you pitch him for 85/5 again.  Do we want Igawa pitching in Fenway giving up 8 home runs in three innings?  Then you see where you are on Sep. 26.  If you’re already out of it, or you don’t desperately need a game and you feel good with your top four going into the last four games, then Kennedy’s done for the year.  At the most he throws 15 more innings and it might get you in the playoffs.

Wait - where the hell is Darrel Rasner in all of this? I’ll take him over any of these clowns.

Or.. is there any chance that Joba goes back to being a starter? Probably not because of the innings.

Even if the Yanks don’t make the playoffs, and I heartily hope they will, this has been an enjoyable season if only to see some of the younger guys, notably Melky and Joba put up some fine performances.  Shelley Duncan’s home run binge has also been rather fun to see.  Also, I was lucky enough to miss a decent portion of the Yanks’ doldrums period while I was in Cuba pursuing this Ph.D. thing.

Last post from me… how great would it be if Kennedy keeps us in the game for three starts and Melky makes a great catch the last day of the season against Baltimore to get us in the playoffs?  That would truly be “Game Over” to all of ESPN’s ridiculous trade deadline second guessers.

By the way, according to Pete Abraham, the Yanks are going to bring up a reliever (and presumably jettison Sean Henn).  Chris Britton is the obvious candidate but given Torre’s apparent dislike and the fact that the Yanks’ bullpen would be without a lefty, I have a feeling Ben Kozlowski will get the call.  He’s also done a nice job at Scranton.

Melky puts the sexy in back when he plays centerfield. LOL Sorry its the high school thing. Oh yeah, for the sabermetrics project back in June, I got A+! Thanks for all the help, esp EFB and IanInBaltimore, etc… Senior year: hopefully Yankees win the WS

My brother has a puppy’s face.

I haven’t posted here in a while because in July I went on vacation, stopped posting, and the Yankees started playing well.  Superstition dictated that I not post as long the Yankees stayed strong.

It’s clearly okay for me to post now.

Watching Mussina on the Yankee post game was tough.  He’s obviously a proud guy, and I give him a lot of credit for standing in front of all those microphones after his third consecutive terrible start.  You could feel the weight of his great career possibly coming to an end in the air as he answered questions.  I felt for him.

As for his rotation slot, if nothing else, it seems like Moose needs a break.  If ABD is correct and it’s only 3 starts we’re talking about, I can see where the Yankees wouldn’t want to take risks messing with Kennedy’s innings limits or development schedule for just three starts, even three starts that figure to be as important as these.  Of course, ABD makes the opposite argument—what’s the harm of fifteen more innings?—and that makes sense, too.  I’d probably go with White for now.

And given the circumstances, could Trachsel or Towers possibly be worth a shot, remembering how well Chacon, Leiter, and Aaron Small worked out in the past?

What the hell? Sorry I went to the bathroom. Seems like my little sister wrote some stupid stuff. It won’t happen again.

Towers is awful.  Also, he’s the guy that pegged A-Rod.  There’s no way the Yanks give him a shot.  Steven White at least has decent stuff.  Let him start against Tampa on Saturday.

As far as the weight training, why did the Yankees resign him if they weren’t happy with his work ethic?  I do agree that he needed to try something, just wondering why the Yankees brought him back knowing what they know.

Didn’t he also stop throwing in the off-season after his elbow injury?  Doesn’t look like that helped either.

A lot of fans (not here) seem to be taking glee in his struggles, which I don’t get.  He’s been a big part of this team since 2001, seeing this happen sucks.  It’s Cone all over again, without the shining moment of the perfect game.

Doesn’t anyone remember Mussina coming into the 2003 ALCS and shutting down the Red Sox after the got runners on 1st and 3rd? He was valuable once; he’s just warn out his welcome. He’s finished, unless he goes on HGH of course.

That was a joke, by no means was I serious. Just pointing it out right now.

As far as the weight training, why did the Yankees resign him if they weren’t happy with his work ethic?  I do agree that he needed to try something, just wondering why the Yankees brought him back knowing what they know.

I was strongly opposed to re-signing Moose, but my guess is that Cash thought that he didn’t have a lot of options as he tried to bridge the gap until their top tier pitching prospects developed. To be fair, Moose’s ERA+ was 125 last season.

I was concerned because he had been on the DL for three consecutive seasons (iirc), and I thought that his failure to hold a lead against Detroit in the ALDS offered a cautionary note for a pitcher whose ability to be successful had already become increasingly fragile.

where the hell is Darrel Rasner in all of this? I’ll take him over any of these clowns.

Done for the season.

It’s frustrating that Mussina, who is such a smart guy, can’t figure out how to compensate for his diminishing physical ability. I’m sure if you put Moose up against David Wells in any sort of intellectual challenge that didn’t involve drinking, Mussina would win. Yet Wells figured out how to keep pitching into his 40s and Mussina couldn’t.

Is fifteen innings going to make his arm fall off?  And shouldn’t Cashman be more afraid of losing 2-8 games of playoff gate revenue than of starting Kennedy’s arb clock six months early?

the arb clock is not a concern.  september callups do not count.

if they don’t use him, it’s strictly because his coaches don’t feel he is ready or that they feel he has met his innings cap.

I’m sure if you put Moose up against David Wells in any sort of intellectual challenge that didn’t involve drinking, Mussina would win.

i don’t see how there is anything “anti-intellectual” about not being able to get guys out with an 86 MPH fastball.  last night Leiter pointed out an 84 MPH fastball.  84 MPH.

he has NOTHING.  his stuff has completely deserted him.  it happens to every pitcher at some point, and we are literally watching him fall off a cliff in front of our eyes.  it’s sad.

he is throwing slop up to the plate. 

i haven’t been watching Wells the last few years, but i doubt his fastball has dropped so badly.

Lefties seem to be able to get away with less fastball than righties for whatever reason.  The big thing with Wells is he seems to have better control and command than Moose, and is less of a nibbler.  I’m not sure how hard he’s throwing these days, but I’d guess he is still in the 88 mph range.

Slowest *average* fastball in 2006, according to the Bill James Handbook 2007:

1 Maddux, Greg ChC-LAD 83.4
2 Hernandez, Liv Was-Ari 83.9
3 Redman, Mark KC 84.1
4 Rogers, Kenny Det 85.2
5 Glavine, Tom NYM 85.3
6 Davis, Doug Mil 85.6
7 Buehrle, Mark CWS 85.7
8 Zito, Barry Oak 85.8
9 Francis, Jeff Col 86.0
10 Byrd, Paul CLE 86.1

(Mussina was 88.6 last year)

You can get guys out with an 86 mph… if you know how. Change speeds, arm angles, learn a new pitch. Mussina is just stubbornly doing what he has always done, and it is not working. I’m just saying it’s sad a guy who is renowned for being so smart is also so stubborn.

Lefties seem to be able to get away with less fastball than righties for whatever reason.  The big thing with Wells is he seems to have better control and command than Moose, and is less of a nibbler.  I’m not sure how hard he’s throwing these days, but I’d guess he is still in the 88 mph range.

With his considerable girth, Wells can hide his release point.  Mussina doesn’t have that ability.

Wasn’t Rogers throwing mid-90s in the playoffs last season?  I’m almost totally convinced that guy was using PEDs before the playoffs-he was out there raving like a maniac, throwing gas, rubbing stuff on his hand- something wasn’t right.

I don’t think Moose is throwing significantly softer - nor has his approach changed much - than he did a few weeks ago when he was pitching well.  True the competition wasn’t as talented.  But I think the biggest thing is control.  Five years ago, if he was missing his spots by 5 or 6 inches, he had enough “stuff” (speed/movement) that he could get away with it.  Those were the games where he would pitch 6 or 7 innings and let up 3 or 4 runs.  Now however if he misses his spots by 6 or 7 inches, he gets clobbered. 

The days he hits his spots, he still has enough to pitch well.  The days of pitching 8 or 9 innings of 0-1 run ball are gone, but 6 or 7 innings of 2-3 run ball are still in play.  And looking through his game log, I count 10 quality starts.  If the Yankees were playing to their pythagorean record, I would still be OK with Moose as the 5th starter.  W/o checking, I’d imagine most teams would be happy to have a 5th starter put up that many QS.  But with the Yankees playoff chances hanging on a thread?  No, send Moose to the pen.  If Kennedy isn’t on a hard innings cap, call him up.  If he is White or even Igawa.

Mussina is just stubbornly doing what he has always done, and it is not working. I’m just saying it’s sad a guy who is renowned for being so smart is also so stubborn.

Sorry, but this is pure BS.  The success that Mussina had last season was the result of a completely changed approach.  He had lost of four or five mph on his fastball and quite a bit of bite on his knuckle curve, and adjusted by developing a killer change-up and becoming a nibbler.  This year, he’s lost a couple more mph and more importantly, the command necessary to nibble effectively.  He’s done because his stuff and control are both gone, not because he’s stubborn.

—My brother has a puppy’s face.—

seriously, this is going to be able to slide in there w/o comment?  b/c i can’t stop laughing.

Yea my sister thinks she’s funny. She is, but thats not a nice thing to say about your older brother.

In addition, I do not have a puppy’s face. I’m 17 and i’m not like one of those dogs Michael Vick has locked up in his homes in Atlanta. My sister wrote that because I wouldnt let her watch TV.

Its not all bad when Moose pitches, by the second or third inning you can go to a movie, or do tasks around the house or watch a guy on cable lose $100 grand real money trying to bluff someone else with four of a kind.

JeremyM #32— I posted regarding that last year. Yes, Rogers was suddenly throwing gas and raving like a ‘roids boy. It was very bizarre.

Poker on GSN.

The sick thing is, Mussina might still be our best fifth starter option. If it’s not going to be Kennedy, it might as well be the Moose. He’ll have to start eating innings, but it might as well be him over Kei.

that depends if you think you are going to get moose from the last 3 outings or not.

b/c i think Igawa can outperform that easily.

Igawa was horrible to the tune of a 6+ ERA, but Moose has been pitching to a 17+ ERA.

Igawa can actually make it through 5-6 innings.  he’ll give up 4 runs on 2-3 HRs, but at least he gets you through 5.

right now, Moose can’t get ANYONE out.  the only reason he got out of the 1st inning last night was b/c Melky made a great catch and Cano made a nice peg to the plate.  by all accounts he should have given up about 5 runs in the first inning last night.

also, Igawa has pitched somewhat respectably in AAA for the last month. 

yes, i know Igawa sucks, but Moose is just getting humiliated and i don’t know if i can take watching much more of it.

Until yesterday I would have agreed that Mussina was the best option but the other highly flawed possibilities are capable of yielding say 4 or 5 runs over 5 or 6 innings as opposed to the way Moose performed.  We could easily have won the Angels game with a mediocre starting performance and possibly even the first Tigers game.

Heyman is reporting that Mussina won’t start Saturday, most likely White or Kennedy will go.

Slightly diverging here, but why were the Yanks going into yesterday (and pretty much any game) without either Karstens or Igawa called up in case long relief was needed?  I know Henn took the bullet yesterday, but he’s not really stretched out to go 80 pitches.

Page 1 of 1 pages:
0 of 963 registered readers are currently logged in.
There are currently 69 visitors who are not logged in.
There was a record 241 simultaneous visitors on May 2, 2011 at 11:54:25 pm.

Does Robinson Cano’s Approach Change With Men on Base?
(50 Comments - 1/26/2010 10:44:25 am)

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
(14 Comments - 1/25/2010 10:56:33 pm)

One Of The Following Stories May or May Not Be True
(26 Comments - 1/25/2010 1:51:23 pm)

What Happened to Wang?
(13 Comments - 1/24/2010 11:53:14 pm)

NY Times - Glanville: Seeing is Disbelieving
(62 Comments - 1/24/2010 9:27:27 pm)

RealGM Baseball: Yankees Among Teams Interested In Edmonds
(3 Comments - 1/23/2010 4:52:40 pm)

Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?
(65 Comments - 1/22/2010 10:24:20 am)

CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16
(35 Comments - 1/21/2010 2:53:01 pm)

MLB.com - Bauman: Yankees appear stronger
(18 Comments - 1/21/2010 5:21:26 am)

TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
(5 Comments - 1/20/2010 9:00:27 am)



*ADVERTISEMENT*
Our new URL is: http://www.rlyw.net
*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

image
Way back in the 20th century, Bill James wrote the first essential book about baseball managers. Chris Jaffe has just written the second.
- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com

From now on, whenever I have a question about a manager, Jaffe's book will be the first and last one I reach for.
- Sean Forman, Baseball-Reference.com


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*
John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*