Sunday, August 10, 2008
Slimmer and Slimmer
Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), real life intruded in my blogging and Yankee watching over the last few days. So I really have nothing to say about the sweep by LA of A, except that I completely expected it and am thus not really that angry about it.A couple of weeks ago, I took a look at the Yankees' upcoming schedule using log5 to give us an idea of what we should reasonably have expected. Here's how the Yankees have done relative to expectations since then.
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 28-Jul | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 29-Jul | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| 30-Jul | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| 31-Jul | Angels | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| 1-Aug | Angels | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2-Aug | Angels | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| 3-Aug | Angels | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| 4-Aug | @Rangers | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| 5-Aug | @Rangers | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 6.0 |
| 6-Aug | @Rangers | 5.6 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| 7-Aug | @Rangers | 6.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
| 8-Aug | @Angels | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 7.0 |
| 9-Aug | @Angels | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 |
| 10-Aug | @Angels | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
You probably didn't need fancy numbers to tell you the Yankees are playing like crap. They were 2.5 games worse than expected over this 14 game stretch. The Yankees entered play on July 28th 3 games behind first place Tampa Bay in the AL East and 1 game behind Boston for the wild card. Now, they are 8.5 games behind Tampa Bay and 4 games behind Boston for the wild card, and are looking up at Minnesota as well.
As long as the Yankees are mathematically alive I'm not going to write them off, otherwise I may have to deal with Jeter is King reading me the virtual riot act again, but let's face it, it's bleak.
First, let's look at the division. The Rays are 71-46. If they go 22-23 over their remaining 45 games, the Yankees would have to 30-14 just to tie them. There's another problem. Tampa has six games left with Boston. So when those teams are playing the Yankees will not be able to pick up ground on one of the teams ahead of them.
The wild card is still in play, but there are four teams that have better records than the Yankees in Tampa Bay, Boston, the White Sox, and Minnesota. Two of those four will likely win their division, but the other two will be the Yankees' chief competition. The Rangers are 2.5 games behind the Yanks but could also end up in the mix, although their schedule is pretty rough going forward.
The cold hard facts are that statistically, the Yankees' odds of making the postseason at this point are slim, and growing slimmer. It won't be the end of the world if they fail to make the postseason, but it sure will be disappointing.
Comments
Hey, SG, is there any evidence as to how bad the team as a whole is this year at hitting with RISP?
It seems like an impossibility all the time that runners on base will ever score. Frankly, if not for the odd HR, it feels like this team should never score.
Of course, I am using words like “feel” & “seems” because the observation may not be in line with what is actually happening. What do you think? You see anything to indicate that it is that much worse than we’ve seen in the recent past?
Is it unreasonable to think that, over time, a players BA w/ RISP should approach his BA?
I refuse to believe that a player that gets ~600 PA in a season is sweating bullets when there is a guy on 2nd and it makes him choke. He hasn’t been happening, and it’s interesting to wonder why, but I’ve never been a big believer that the game is somehow different when the ‘pressure’ is on..
Ok, so I am a jerk for asking my question, when I could easily whip out a calculator and figure out the answer for myself. Here is what I found:
2008 - RISP - .260 BA/.732 OPS (blech)
Last 5 Seasons - RISP - .277 BA/.825 OPS
Holy Cow!
The SPANKEES ARE TEH SUCK!@!
Wow, I had forgotten about Jeter is King, but I think, in retrospect, that that was the moment I knew I’d keep coming back to this site forever.
yes, being exposed to the outside world was eerie
I’ve never been a big believer that the game is somehow different when the ‘pressure’ is on…
While I accept that there’s little statistical evidence of clutch hitting ability, and while I accept that “clutchness” is often blown out of proportion by certain factions of the media, I also know from personal experience that competitive sports and games are indeed different when the pressure is on. I’m sure pro athletes have a greater capacity to manage the stress than an average Joe like myself, but I doubt they can eliminate the stress altogether, especially as they play in increasingly important playoff games, in front of larger crowds, etc.
To me clutchness/chokeness is the most evident in NBA playoff games.
To me clutchness/chokeness is most evident in the ability to get one’s dissertation written.
(It took me 4 years, by the way.)
Joba Chamberlain returns, Phil Hughes returns. Hope lives.
But so does WOE.
If the Yankees are the WC, then it is the Angels. Therefore, should we hope?
If the Yankees are the WC, then it is the Angels. Therefore, should we hope?
Yes. It’s a hustle; After the Angels win 8 of 10 against the Yankees during the season, they think the playoffs will be a cake-walk. The Yankees then jump out early and take it in 3 games, before LAofAAA figures out what hit them!
The cold hard facts are that statistically, the Yankees’ odds of making the postseason at this point are slim, and growing slimmer.
Never tell me the odds!
The cold hard facts are that statistically, the Yankees’ odds of making the postseason at this point are slim, and growing slimmer.
So you’re saying there’s still a chance?
If the Yankees are the WC, then it is the Angels. Therefore, should we hope?
i was thinking about this yesterday. it would be kindof sad to make a heroic push for the WC only to be stomped on by the Angels in teh ALDS.
then i thought, you know, the yankees would actually be coming into a playoff series for the first time in about 10 years with NO ONE thinking they will win the series.
maybe they’d relax and just play baseball.
I just went back and re-read the Jeter is King thread. Made me giggle.
Yeah, I was definitely thinking yesterday “Oh man, even if they somehow squeeze out the Wild Card, it’s a lock that they’ll face the Angels, so that sucks.”
Then I thought, “Dude, it’s the freaking playoffs. The Cardinals won the World Series being 4 games over at the end of the year and losing, like, 29 of their last 30 games, anything can happen in the playoffs - just get there.”
On a lighter note, Clay Buccholz got lit up by the White Sox yesterday. Monster home run after Monster home run. It’s not much silver lining but its something.
This team is making me sick…although not as sick you guys probably feel. I didn’t get to watch any of the games this weekend. Game 1 I was drinking myself stupid. Game 2 I was working. Game 3 I was golfing.
This minnesota series is big..Who is going to pitch wednesday? I would like it to be Hughes but that seems doubtful. I guess we could see him Sunday potentially if all goes well tomorrow.
“This minnesota series is big”
well they are all big now. But this is especially large.
I just went back and re-read the Jeter is King thread. Made me giggle.
Jeter is King laid the smack down on me.
Did he ever come back? Or was that his shining moment?
I think I am resigned to the Yankees not making the post-season this year. I expect them to win around 88 games, which will fall short by about 4/5 games for the wild card.
So, for now, I will look forward to Mussina’s starts. Who knows how many starts he has remaining with the Yankees? It has been a rare privilege. Also, I will look forward to Joba Chamberlain’s continued progress and Phil Hughes comeback. And Alex Rodriguez’s march up the all-time home run ladderboard. Maybe see if Jason Giambi can get 400 home runs while he is still a Yankee.
Other than that, I can’t think of too many things to keep me interested about the Yankees this season.
Did he ever come back? Or was that his shining moment?
That was his lone comment, but it was definitely quality over quantity.
Other than that, I can’t think of too many things to keep me interested about the Yankees this season.
I will keep watching because I love watching baseball, pure and simple. In the end, I don’t care whether the Yankees make it to the postseason or not. OK, that’s not entirely true, I do care. I guess I just cant’ say that the season doesn’t interest me if they don’t. Baseball is a wonderful, unpredictable game, and that’s what keeps me glued to my seat. Championships are wonderful, but they’re not be-all and end-all, despite what Jeter may say.
Over the course of the season, it’s easy to get angry and frustrated when your beloved team is playing like crap, but really this:
So, for now, I will look forward to Mussina’s starts. Who knows how many starts he has remaining with the Yankees? It has been a rare privilege. Also, I will look forward to Joba Chamberlain’s continued progress and Phil Hughes comeback. And Alex Rodriguez’s march up the all-time home run ladderboard. Maybe see if Jason Giambi can get 400 home runs while he is still a Yankee.
is almost good enough for me. I guess I’m a baseball fan first and a Yankee fan second.
.....
Besides, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No! It wasn’t over then, and it’s not over now!!!
The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor in the pages of National Comics #18, one month BEFORE the Japanese ACTUALLY bombed Pearl Harbor.
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