Personally, I just like to see the Yankees win a few series and get to .500.  And then see where they are from there.  If they take care of their own business, they should be a winning team.  Let’s get there first.

I agree the first goal should be to get to .500 and stay there. However, the Yankees winning the division is still definitely plausible.

The key to winning the division lies in the 6 games we have left with Boston. A sweep of those 6 games means we have to make up 3.5 in the standings - 4 of 6 means we have to make up 7.5 in the standings. Over 100 games, that is definitely possible.  I want to see how the Sox respond when the injury bug hits.

Big couple weeks for cheesy synthesizer-based pop rock around here… Mike and the Mechanics helping the Yankees and “Don’t Stop Believing” in everyone’s head this morning courtesy Mr. David Chase, that rat bastard.

Larry,

Although I’ve enjoyed the running gag about needing a miracle (and maybe I’m misunderstanding it), this team doesn’t need any kind of a miracle. This team has oodles of talent that all went bad at the same time. They should have been expected all along to snap out of it and start playing .600+ ball, perhaps better. That should bring them right back into contention for the wild card and possibly, though less likely, the division. A miracle would have been if they had continued to play anywhere near .500 ball.

Don’t look now, but Bobby Abreu is a league average hitter again.

And Darren, take your reverse jinx hoodoo back to Sox Therapy. We only like negativity and timid optimism about this team. Melky > Crisp, Take THAT!

No reverse jinx, just the facts. It’s hard to believe that a few days ago people on this site were talking about a “long dark period lying ahead,” or some such.

Melky vs. Crisp? That’s a tough one. Crisp has had his problems for sure, but he does have an edge in preventing inside-the-park home runs.

what does it mean to “get to .500 first”?  i see that over and over again, but i don’t get it.  it’s just a mental goal that means nothing.  will the yankees play differently getting to .500, and then change it again once they are chasing the division?

getting to .500 is also bs, b/c it’s a moving target.  .500 a week from now is different than .500 a month from now.  So what’s the point of having this little mental goal to get to .500?  do people really think like that?  will there be some type of mental pat on the back once the yankees get there?  “ok, fellas, now it’s time to focus on the WC”?

seriously, i thought this was a site that leaned towards statistics and away from conventional wisdom.  There’s nothing more CW than “let’s get to .500, and THEN we’ll see where we are at!”

“what does it mean to “get to .500 first”?  i see that over and over again, but i don’t get it.”

Apparently not.

Crisp has had his problems for sure, but he does have an edge in preventing inside-the-park home runs.

Ooh!  That hurts.  I suppose Melky still has the edge on not allowing singles to become doubles, and doubles to become triples.

For the record, I think Melky has the talent to be > Crisp, but at this point Crisp is probably still a little better.  By the end of the year however, I think Melky could prove the greater of the two.

I continue to be relieved that the Yankees didn’t trade Melky for Mike Gonzalez, a trade I opposed from the time it was proposed during the offseason, especially in light of Will Carroll’s spot on article on Gonzalez that cited medical experts who stated that tendinitis was a catchall diagnosis, which was at least as likely to lead to reconstructive surgery as it was to resolve itself through rest and medication.

I’m with KronicFatigue.  Getting to .500 first, like taking it one day at a time, is an attitude for players and coaches to maintain in order to keep focused on immediate goals and deal with the pressures they are under. 

We are not under these pressures.  We can speculate about and hope for a Yankee comeback this season.  It won’t distract us from throwing or hitting the ball.  We are fans.  We will root for the Yankees to win every game, sure, and notice when they have evened their record out, but it is idiotic to say that we shouldn’t think beyond that.

villainx is posting the same thing every single day, word-for-word, guys.  If they win tomorrow, he’ll post the same thing Wednesday.  If they win Wednesday and get over .500… he’ll post the same thing Thursday.

Anyway, Darren, the “All I need is a miracle” thing is because when they were 14 1/2 games out the only team that had come back from that large a deficit was the 1914 “Miracle Braves”.  Sean took that and turned it into the MatM YouTube video… and there you go.

Tug Mcgraw “You gottta believe.”

“but at this point Crisp is probably still a little better.”

Crisp has been somewhere between 4-6 runs worse at the plate then Melky this year. Melky has the better ZR in center and has probably been worse on the bases, though not by much. And Melky is getting hot while Crisp is consistently sucking.

Joba Chamberlain promoted to AA Trenton.

Darren…

What Larry said.

That and Mike and the Mechanics are wildly underrated.

Cowboy Popup,

I’ll admit that I didn’t go back and check the numbers - I was going to, but said, “this is my first impression, so I’ll stick to it”.  Part of it is based on the fact that Crisp has more seasons to fall back on, to make a determination.  Which is also why I think that before the year is out, Melky will have definitely surpassed him.

Hey, I love Melky.  I just have to admit that so far he has a small sample size to work with.  But when all is said and done, I don’t see any reason why he won’t be a starter for the Yankees next year, possibly in center.

Kennedy strong second start at Trenton

I want Ichiro in CF.

“Kennedy strong second start at Trenton “

When?

There has not been a good extended streak of hitting by Coco since he joined the Sox. Last year, it made sense because we later found out he was playing with a broken bone in his hand. This year, there’s been some talk of lingering shoulder problems, but nothing at all conclusive. He went from being an exciting, promising young hitter to someone well below replacement level. I’ll be damned if I can figure it out. (I still think that logic dictates that he’ll figure things out, but logic hasn’t exactly been Mr. reliable lately.)

Meanwhile, I don’t think people gave Melky enough credit for what he did last year. His defense was shaky but seeemed to even out a bit by the end. With the bat, he put up a .360 OBP at age 21. That’s awesome and I don’t see any reason to think power will not come for him eventually.

“Hey, I love Melky.  I just have to admit that so far he has a small sample size to work with.  But when all is said and done, I don’t see any reason why he won’t be a starter for the Yankees next year, possibly in center. “

You can’t be reasonable when Red Sox fans are around, they see it as a sign of weakness!

You’re right of course, I’m just starting to get the urge to pick fights with Red Sox fans back. I need to keep looking at the standings before I get myself in trouble.

Kennedy 6/10 6ip 3h 0r 2bb 8k

Crisp has had his problems for sure, but he does have an edge in preventing inside-the-park home runs.

Ah, but Melky balances it out by being better than Crisp at taking away home runs at the wall.

Ah, but Melky balances it out by being better than Crisp at taking away home runs at the wall.

Coco can’t scale the 20’ CF wall in Fenway, it’s true.

Seems like a lot of you guys were too quick to lose hope. I agree, for about a week the Yanks were staring into the abyss, but the subsequent correction and rejuvenation of guys like Cano and Abreu is a pretty typical scene in the ebb and flow of a long season. The last series was a dead heat until A-Rod’s last word, enough to remind people that head to head, the Sox and Yanks are pretty much even.

Of course, I like our chances way better, not only with 9.5 games in hand, but also with some of our worst road tripping about to be behind us. The Yanks made up 5 games by playing lineups that were either truly dead (Chi) or more AAA (Pit), while the Sox had to get on a plane after a Sunday night game (MLB: WTF?) and fly to Oakland to play the next night. They still almost scratched out a gutty win against the AL ERA leader in his home park before dropping three against a tough home team. Then Schill, plus 2/3 in Phoenix, all of which is respectable baseball. We have an even worse trip next (ATL-SD-SEA), but if we’re still healthy and lapping the field, it will be smooth sailing.

Oh, and that’s with Drew, Lugo, Crisp and Manny all below their expected offensive output. For my money, Crisp’s defense makes up the difference anyway. My point: this should be a battle the whole way home, but for the Sox to give back 5 games says more about the Yankees waking up and not much about us.

Coco can’t scale the 20’ CF wall in Fenway, it’s true.

I was referring to the bullpen wall in right center.  I seem to recall Crisp having a run-in with it on an A-Rod HR last year.

Ah, you may be right. Most days I can’t recall anything beyond the previous week.

—villainx is posting the same thing every single day, word-for-word, guys.  If they win tomorrow, he’ll post the same thing Wednesday.  If they win Wednesday and get over .500… he’ll post the same thing Thursday.—

no wonder i felt like i was seeing that so often.  don’t i feel awkward.

dunn’s on the market.  he’d be such a huge upgrade at 1st base.

I want Ichiro in CF.

I don’t. He will be 34 this year. His OBP is overly reliant on his AVG. His AVG is disproportionately dependent on his speed. His speed is likely to decline as he ages. He is probably going to demand a four or five year contract at over $15 million per year. That means that the team that signs him could end up paying him based on his past performance while not receiving full value for his current and future performance.

It’s almost as if villainx’s posts are made by a spammer.

ESPN just debuted a new Player Ranking system, and it is pretty hilarious. The best part about it was the chat they had today, where the creator of the system really had no reply to a stream of excellent questions regarding how problematic the ranking system is.

Here are the Player Rankings - http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playerrating

To be honest, though, as strictly an award indicator, these rankings are probably pretty good, as it takes into account stuff you really ought not to judge, like wins for pitchers, saves for relievers and how good the team the player is playing on.

So if it was sold just as that, then okay.

But to basically say, “Yeah, I know VORP and Win Shares, etc. already do an excellent job at exactly what we propose to do, but we are going to improve on those systems!” and then have it be as lame as this?

So silly.

For ever Manny, Nancy Drew, and Coco (maybe) playing below expectation there is a Youklis, Lowell, and Petunia playing far above.  Also, while Ortiz is on a slower HR pace his average is far higher than should be expected(or at least it was when they last played The 26 Time World Series Champion New York Yankees).  But who cares- I’d rather win the Wildcard and get a fraud World Series Championship like some team did in 2004.

But to basically say, “Yeah, I know VORP and Win Shares, etc. already do an excellent job at exactly what we propose to do, but we are going to improve on those systems!” and then have it be as lame as this?

I did notice that system, but didn’t have a chance to read too much behind it except to briefly look at the methodology.  Yeah, pretty poor.  There are probably about 10 or 12 better systems to come to a single number (or maybe even two, separating offense and defense) systems than this.

But you’re right, this may be like the “Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor” - good at predicting WHO will win the award, not who most deserves it.

Question for the statistically minded: I seem to recall that Pythagorean record is a better predictor of final standings / final record up until around the all star break, and actual record is a better predictor of final standings thereafter.  Or something along those lines.  I don’t recall the actual details.

If I am right, this would imply that the pennant race is far from over, as the Yankees are about 3.5 games out of 1st place based on Pythagorean record, which is much closer than their gap based on actual record.  In other words, we could expect the Yankees to finish closer to the Red Sox than what the record indicates; although, still, we would predict that the Yanks would finish in second place.

Does anyone have any understanding that they could share on the predictive value of the Pythagorean record, and what it means (if anything) to this season? 

Next question: SG ran some numbers on the Yankees chances of winning the division a few weeks back - (http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/dont_jump_off_the_ledge_just_yet).  Is there anyway we could get those updated before he comes back from Pluto, or wherever he is?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

BP running a simulation based on pecota values.  there are links to other simulations as well.  I don’t know how accurate they are, but it’s always fun (read: agonizing) to watch them change day to day.

“The Sox lost 5 games by playing lineups that were either perennially terrible (Oak) or still pretty bad (Ari), while the Yankees had to get on a plane after a Sunday night game (MLB: WTF?) and fly to Chicago to play the next night.”

I’ll give you that ‘zona and Oakland have some darn good pitching, but Boston still got shut out by Lenny DiNardo, who might as well be a prettier Julian Tavarez.

And don’t act like Boston was the only team that got screwed by MLB, the Yankees still had to take a flight too.

The simple fact is that Boston lost 3 games to an all-pitching Oakland team, and the Yankees won 3 games against, well, an all-around terrible team which is proving more and more that 2005 was nothing more than a glut of fluky career years. Then the Yankees swept a team that would struggle in AAA and Boston won 2 out of 3 against an NL team. The Yankees won the games they should have won. Boston’s offense got shut down by some good (and some not-so-good) pitching. This week wasn’t some mystical week where the Yankees could make up games and they blew it by Boston winning two games and the Yankees losing one.

The Sox have two black hole mainstays in their lineup in Lugo and Crisp, and the genius Terry Francona keeps batting them 1-2. He also doesn’t like to use Papelbon in tied games, and basically gave that first game to Oakland whose pathetic offense still had trouble winning it. Also, the bullpen behind Okajima is looking to be terrible, with no one really promising looking to break out.

Both teams are not without their troubles, and the 9.5 game lead the Sox have certainly helps. But with Mike Lowell performing his second-half swoon a month early with a bruised thumb, among others coming back down to earth, the Sox offense is looking to lose a lot of its offensive punch. Also, Beckett won’t go 25-0, and Schilling won’t exactly pitch 1-hitters against real offenses.

The Yankee troubles are well-documented if you read entries only a week ago.

Seeing as how even stalwart fans like SG were ready to give up on the team only recently, it would be simply amazing if the Yankees were, say, 6 games back by the all-star break. And it wouldn’t be just about the Yankees when a team loses 8 games in the standings in one month. Unless the Yankees don’t lose a game until the ASB, then it can be all about the Yankees.

I would be happy with 8 games back of Boston, 2 out of Wild Card by All-Star break.  Also, I am reading about the draft and having to give larger than slot signing bonuses to some of these guys and it seems to be a no-brainer.  I mean we’re talking a few hundred grand here and a million bucks there when we throw away $40M on Carl Pavano and $7M on Joe Torre.  I like Joe but really how important is a manager?  I don’t like many of Cashman’s decisions regarding the major league personel but I do like his apparent strategy of funneling more resources to the draft, international signings, and player development.  The return on investment is much higher for those guys because they are cheap and they build the most fan loyalty (look at what Yankees people love the most and I’d guarantee Rivera, Jeter, Posada, and Pettitte top the list on the current team while Cano and Melky may be more liked than ARod or Abreu).

Off days suck!

Wormkiller special tonight!