And I generally avoid politics, but I ask that if you must talk about the election today, be civil.

whatever, socialist.

Remember, the Yankees do a lot better with a Democrat in the White House.

Just sayin’

And if you vote major corporations will give you free coffee, donuts, ice cream, or vibrators.

http://notrustfund.blogspot.com/2008/11/its-free-for-allfree-treats-for-voting.html

And if you vote major corporations will give you free coffee, donuts, ice cream, or vibrators.

I like three of the four…I’ll leave it up to you to guess!

Just curious, but how many RSAR would CC be worth if he hit his baseline IP, but his 85% ERA+?  Just a ballpark, since technically you would need to adjust all the components to get runs-saved.  229IP with an ERA+ of 138 seems more likely to me than anything, at least for next year.  Though they would obviously be signing CC to the long-haul, his biggest value to the team may be next year, due to innings-limits by Joba, uncertainty with Hughes and Kennedy, and the fact that a lot of their other top pitching prospects (Brackman, etc) are still at least a year away.

you WILL NOT read a dumber Yankee related column this offseason, guaranteed:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spwally045911390nov04,0,3033202.column

i am literally speechless.

I like three of the four…I’ll leave it up to you to guess!

more of a chai-tea guy?

Just curious, but how many RSAR would CC be worth if he hit his baseline IP, but his 85% ERA+?

60.1.

We have to be getting one of these guys, right? I mean, they can’t miss out on both, can they?

Sign CC and Pettitte or Mussina. We still have to hope that Hughes can be a 5th starter, don’t we?

Pettitte or Mussina

Something tells me that they will be going into the season with 2 of Pettitte, Mussina and Pavano.  One year deals are too good to pass up, despite how much shit people will give him about Pavano.

i am literally speechless.

I feel dumber for having read that article.  Of course, I should’ve stopped when I saw “Wallace Mathews” in the byline…

Sign CC and Pettitte or Mussina. We still have to hope that Hughes can be a 5th starter, don’t we?

we do.  but i guarantee that if Hughes is the odd man out in Spring Training, he will be called up as an injury replacement sometime before mid-season. 

and if he isn’t?  that means the Yankees had 5 starters stay healthy all year and will probably mean they are in first place.

I’ve read that Cashman is going to sign 2 starters, that means that he would like to sign 2 of CC/Lowe/Burnett and I’m against of signing one of them, let alone both. mIf we can sign CC thats fine, but if we can’t I hope we resign Andy ar Moose and trust that Aceves and Hughes can fill the last 2 spots in the rotation.

If the Phillies reminded us of anything, it is that there is nothing more discouraging to an opponent than knowing it has <strike>only six innings to get the job done while you have the full nine</strike> to face a stud #1 starter multiple times in a series.

Does this guy watch baseball at all?  I’m pretty sure this Cole Hamels fella had a fairly big impact on that series.  I’m just amused.  What exactly are the credentials required to receive money to write about baseball?  It can’t be too much more stringent than just having a pulse.

What exactly are the credentials required to receive money to write about baseball?  It can’t be too much more stringent than just having a pulse.

Seems like a 1500-word essay on why a setup guy is more valuable than an ace starter is a necessary prereq.

That may be my favorite article ever. My favorite part is when he suggests that Joba as a setup man, pitching a max of 80 innings would win more games than a full season of Manny Ramirez. I don’t want to sign Manny but you have to be on some really really potent drugs to actually think that, never mind write it to be published.

Okay, I had to post a comment.  It was dumb, but sheesh, that was a dumb article.  However, I think this comment might take the cake:

Lets see, a year and a half in the majors with no saves, 5 wins, a DUI and a sore arm. Has anybody in the history of the game received so much hype without doing much of anything as Joba has?

Ah yes, he has done fairly poorly in the Saves,Wins, DUI (SWD) stat.  Forget about ERA or strikeouts, those are for spreadsheet dorks.

I shouldn’t have read the comments.

With the Sox and Rays in the AL East, the Yanks can’t afford to trust Hughes or Aceves - not yet at least.  Yanks need to sign CC and either Burnett or Lowe - both if Mussina retires.  Resign Pavano for depth.

Let Hughes and Kennedy and Pavano pitch in the minors and get ready for an injury callup. 

It would be great to land Teix, but I don’t see the Angels letting him sign elsewhere.

I hope you youngsters go out and vote.  I’m wearing my “I voted” sticker and look forward to all sorts of swag…

I’m not sure having a $10M pitcher start in the minors is the best use of resources.  I think the Yanks will have a decent amount of depth as-is, but I guess you can never have too much pitching.

I voted via absentee ballot, which was very nice.  I still don’t understand California’s policy of posting names, addresses, and party affiliations outside the polling place, and then only requiring you to give your name and address when you go inside.  It’s just inviting voter fraud.  Oh well.

Absentee ballot rocks. Is it wrong if I wrote in Cashman for President?

Well, he did whiff on Pena…

How can the Yanks count on Hughes when he only throws 91?  I mean, really guys.  Plus, he just missed a start with a broken fingernail, most likely as a result of his poor work ethic.

Plus, he just missed a start with a broken fingernail, most likely as a result of his poor work ethic.

No, you silly goose.  His broken fingernail was a result of his 24-hours/day blogging habit.  Duh!

Plus, he just missed a start with a broken fingernail, most likely as a result of his poor work ethic.

this is true.  his hands are soft from sitting around eating grapes all day.

I’ve read that Cashman is going to sign 2 starters, that means that he would like to sign 2 of CC/Lowe/Burnett and I’m against of signing one of them, let alone both.

you are against signing CC Sabathia?

also, it was unclear what Moose does to that total.  also also, trades are possible.

those aren’t the only 3 pitchers available.

Apparently David Eckstein wants to play 2B next year.  Now we can all realize our dreams of trading Cano and getting the gritmeister himself.

lso, it was unclear what Moose does to that total.  also also, trades are possible.

Also also also, Pettitte.

for the record, here is the full quote from Cashman, where he specifically mentions that Moose could be one of the 2 starters he feels they need:

“We just obviously have needs in the starting rotation. He certainly could be one of those guys that fills a need, without a doubt,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Monday as the GM meetings began. “I just know that we need starting pitching, and it’s not just one. We’re not going to be one and done. We need multiple.”

not sure what that means about Pettitte.

I’ve read that Cashman is going to sign 2 starters, that means that he would like to sign 2 of CC/Lowe/Burnett and I’m against of signing one of them, let alone both.

Just to follow that up…Cashman has repeatedly said that at this point he doesn’t know what Moose and (to a lesser extent) Pettitte are going to do, so he has to move on as if they won’t be pitching for the Yankees.  He’s got two pitchers in the rotation (Wang and Joba), and feels he needs at least two more.  I think he really, really, really wants CC.  After that?  If Moose and/or Pettitte return, I think he has his two and will go from there.  If neither return, I think he’d rather sign Lowe, make a trade, etc. then start with Hughes AND Kennedy/Aceves/? in the rotation.

The next 10 days will firm up what exactly the Yanks are doing, as Moose and Pettitte are likely to declare their intentions, and bids can start being made right after that.

I am fine with this, and I have also done a reversal on the SIGN LOWE! stance from earlier in the year.

Well, not a total reversal, just a slight one.

I dunno about the “without a doubt.” I definitely have some doubt that Mussina can replicate last year’s brilliant season.

I dunno about the “without a doubt.” I definitely have some doubt that Mussina can replicate last year’s brilliant season.

even if you add a full run to his ERA, he still “feels a need”.

obviously, there is always doubt with any player, but IF the yankees signed Sabathia, Moose would be looked at as the #3 starter.

It seems the “without a doubt” is in regards to Mussina filling a need with the team.  Right now, having a warm body than can throw a baseball for 170+ innings and not get shellacked is a need for the 2009 team, and I think Mussina could fill that.  He doesn’t need to be as good as he was in 2008, because hopefully they get Wang for a full season, Joba for more innings than last year, and maybe, just maybe, get a Sabathia.

I wonder what Moose’s projection is. I would guess that a full run to his ERA or more is likely. 2007 Moose fills a need only in IP. Not saying he will regress back to that but if he did we have much cheaper options. What do you guys think Moose could get in a one year deal? $15-17M?

even if you add a full run to his ERA, he still “feels a need”.

Does he yearn?

From Cairo 1.0, Moose projects to have a 4.2 ERA and be almost 3 wins above replacement.  That’s worth $10-12M easy, and considering it would be a one year deal, all the sweeter.  I don’t think he could get $15M on the open market.  He signed for $11.5M per for two years just recently, which probably included some discount.

He signed for $11.5M per for two years just recently, which probably included some discount.

Yeah, I think if he decides he wants to pitch again he either a) signs a 1-year deal for between $10-12M or b) signs a 2-year deal for about $24M total, with a 3rd year option.

Why option b?  Moose has said if he’s in it for one he’s in for three, so I could see him saying, “I don’t want to do a contract every year if I know I want to pitch three”.  Likely, he’d go with option a, but yeah, I could see b.  Of course, I still think he’s going to retire…I understand the tractor-pull at the fair was so good this year, he wants to compare it to other area tractor-pulls…

Oh, and thanks for that quick response on CC’s RSAR SG.  Figure worth about another $7M next year if he hits that, and I think it is worth-while to add that into his “value” for the length of the deal.  So over the next six he’s going to be “worth” about $120M (based on best projections, using my baseline/80% hybrid), and he’s going to get $150M.  I guess the question is if everyone (or more importantly Cashman) is comfortable paying a yearly $5M premium to have him pitch in the Bronx?

After reading that article, I “feel a need” myself, and it’s got nothing to do with any of the things I could get for free in that other article.

Just read a rumor from Rotoworld that the Red Sox may sign Teixera and move Youkilis to LF, Bay to RF and Drew to CF, keeping Ellsbury and Crisp as 4th and 5th OFs.

SG, how will that offense project? I think it should be the best in baseball, right?

If anything, Sox should move Youk to 3rd and trade Lowell.  Drew in CF doesn’t sound like a good idea (has Youk ever even played the OF?).

Is it any concern that we are likely losing two of the best sets of eyes in baseball (Giambi and Abreu)? It seems like losing them is going to completely change the dynamic of our offense from working starting pitchers to a much more aggressive style. That concerns me.

Teixeira is a patient hitter.  Adding him certainly wouldn’t lead to a more aggressive style.  Also, A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and Posada are all high OBP guys.

Will Matsui and Posada be healthy? Jeter will take his walks but I don’t consider him patient.

Just a thought.

Will Matsui and Posada be healthy? Jeter will take his walks but I don’t consider him patient.

I’d be more confident in Posada than in Matsui.  Posada really has that one injury (same shoulder but years ago), whereas in the last few years Matsui has had several different injuries.  Jeter goes through times where he is patient and times where he isn’t.  The “official” take is as Jeter goes so do the Yankees, but I think it’s the other way around; when the team is going well he’s happy to take pitches, when they aren’t he tries to force it.  Just my opinion.

Regardless, I posted some stuff here a few months ago, but if you go to ESPN (probably other sites as well) you can look at the Yankees P/PA over the past decade; for the most part they actually saw *less* pitches as a team in the championship years than in the past few.  Being patient is good, but I’d rather have good hitters/fielders.

“feels a need”.  that’s awesome.

Mussina’s 2008 ERA and W-L were better than CC’s 2009 baseline projection. So, signing CC doesn’t make the 2009 Yanks better than they were in 2008. It only helps prevent them from getting even worse.

For the love of god, please tell me you’re not evaluating a pitcher based on his W-L record.

That 230 IP means a whole lot.  Each one of those innings thrown by CC is an inning not thrown by a lesser pitcher.

Just read a rumor from Rotoworld that the Red Sox may sign Teixera and move Youkilis to LF, Bay to RF and Drew to CF, keeping Ellsbury and Crisp as 4th and 5th OFs.

SG, how will that offense project? I think it should be the best in baseball, right?

To really answer that question, I’d have to project every team in baseball. For a Rotoworld rumor, i don’t see the point.

Mussina’s 2008 ERA and W-L were better than CC’s 2009 baseline projection. So, signing CC doesn’t make the 2009 Yanks better than they were in 2008. It only helps prevent them from getting even worse.

Moose’s RSAR was 40 last year.  Sabathia’s projection is 5.5 better than that.  Also, this projection is based on last year’s Yankee defense.  If the Yankees upgrade, then that should add a few more runs to Sabathia’s value.

And what yankeemonkey and DaPuj said.

So, uh, Pavano?  Really?

What would be an acceptable deal to you guys for more Pavano?  Would it actually entail negative money?

If Pavano comes back, he should be the one doing YMCA in the 6th, instead of the groundskeepers.

I am fine with this, and I have also done a reversal on the SIGN LOWE! stance from earlier in the year.

Well, not a total reversal, just a slight one.

Flip-flopper!

Wait, wrong election.

And, as mentioned in the previous thread, the “yes on prop 8” ads are kind of weird on this blog. I also really wish I was registered to vote in CA.

I like hearing Samuel L. Jackson on the commercials for No on Prop 8.  It’s comforting to hear him, yet exciting that he might let loose a burst of “What the hell are you thinking?  Vote NO, or I’m going to have to hurt you.”

Re [51], I’ve been arguing Pavano would be a lower-than-market backup option for a long time.  Pete Abe being against it makes me happy.

Heyman does suggest what many of us suspected could be the only explanation for the “not picking up Marte’s option” thing (other than that idea having been complete whole-cloth fabrication):

“It appears likely that the Yankees won’t pick up Damaso Marte’s $6 million option, but they are considering a multi-year deal for him instead.”

What would Pavano go for on the market though?  I’ve been thinking about that.  Would he really be lower-than-market?  Cairo has him at right around replacement level (5.53 ERA), and I’m not sure how much upside there really is to him. Could he post a 4.5 ERA?  Sure, but I just don’t know that he’s more likely to do that than Kennedy, Aceves, or even Giese?  How much would you pay for Pavano, and would it only be for one year?  Just curious.

“Cairo has him at right around replacement level (5.53 ERA)”

If I understand correctly, much of his projection is driven by regression and innings coming back from rehab or hurt.  I don’t see why he shouldn’t be projected to perform according to his pre-Yankees level plus aging plus surgery wear-and-tear, which I’d naively guess to still be pretty good.  And I suspect he’d accept a below-market offer, whatever market is, from the Yankees as penance.

Actually, it was adding 200 league average innings, not replacement level innings, so that should only help his cause.  I guess I also don’t really think he’d give the yankees a break on a contract, if anything, I think it would do both parties better to just make a clean break of it.  But lets say he does give them a break, what sort of deal would be appealing to you?

I’m not any good at knowing what contracts are worth, but say he’s 1 win above replacement, that would be worth $5 mil - give him $2 mil plus incentives to reach $5 total for 100 innings or something plus an option of some sort for next year, and start him in AAA with the understanding he’ll have to prove he belongs in the rotation.  If he pitches well in AAA but Hughes has a 3.5 era in the majors and Kennedy is at 4.0, then trade him for a few prospects to a team needing a starter.

Pre-TJ, Pavano’s fastball was 91-93, and would hit 94 at times.  Post-TJ, he was sitting in the 86-88 range.  There’s a chance he will get that old arm strength back, but there’s also a risk that he won’t.  A healthy Pavano didn’t really project much better than league average anyway, and if he left some of his velocity on the operating table he’s probably not much better than he showed at the end of last season. 

If Pavano would agree to a heavily incentive-laden contract with a low base pay (like rilkefan’s outline), I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed to bringing him back, but I don’t see why he would, and I don’t think he’s a good bet to perform all that well or stay healthy if he does come back.

I don’t really have any disdain for Pavano, but a lot of Yankee fans do, and it may just be in the best interests of both him and the Yankees to end their relationship.

I like hearing Samuel L. Jackson on the commercials for No on Prop 8.  It’s comforting to hear him, yet exciting that he might let loose a burst of “What the hell are you thinking?  Vote NO, or I’m going to have to hurt you.”

too bad I don’t watch TV I feel like those ads would have been rather amusing.

“Post-TJ, he was sitting in the 86-88 range.”

This would be within expectation for a good recovery at delta t = whatever, wouldn’t it?

“A healthy Pavano didn’t really project much better than league average anyway”

What’s league average worth?

“it may just be in the best interests of both him and the Yankees to end their relationship”

Sure.  But it would be sad to lose a league-average pitcher who could be had at a discount, of course assuming.  (I think he might sign under market because he did work hard to come back and he surely feels he didn’t give the Yankees good value.)

Re [63], (warning - political content) SLJ on prop 8.

Sample-size issues just came up in my biotech buisiness class.  She never said sample-size, but I almost shouted it out when she was talking about projections and such.

What’s league average worth?

based on market rates, about $9-10M/year…

Some evidence Pavano would like a second chance at RAB.

Victor Wang, in an article on Peavy’s trade value at HBT, states:

“Pitchers Peavy’s age (27) are in general pretty risky and tend to lose 10 percent of their innings pitched and performance.”

I’d have thought that 27 was an ideal age for acquiring a pitcher.  And yes, I’m thinking of Sabathia in these terms - if this is true for a 27-year-old Peavy (and - is it really?  SG?), could a 28-year-old Sabathia be a smaller risk?  What am I missing here?

As a general rule hitter peak at 27-28.  Pitchers tend to peak at variable times.  I was under the impression that a pitcher was as likely to peak at 25 as they were at 30.

And yes, I’m thinking of Sabathia in these terms - if this is true for a 27-year-old Peavy (and - is it really?  SG?), could a 28-year-old Sabathia be a smaller risk?  What am I missing here?

I’m not really sure I understand your question.  I thought the entry I wrote a few days ago already covered this?

Sabathis is forecast to go from 255 innings in 2008 to 229 in 2009, and then despite the slight uptick in 2010, to lose around 9% of his value each season going forward.  That’s not much different than what Victor is saying for Peavy.

This isn’t what will happen, with Peavy or Sabathia or anyone else.  It’s a probability based on the history of how pitchers of the same age have done over the next several years.  Of course there are people who defy those odds, just like there are pitchers who will get hurt and never pitch again.

Peavy has already missed non-trivial time in his career, and his mechanics aren’t the greatest according to many scouts, so he’s probably a bigger risk than Sabathia.

I am reading about possible trades for Matt Holiday and Jake Peavy and Phil Hughes’ name keeps coming up but is this guy even considered a top prospect anymore?  I think a lot of people, including myself, are starting to wonder if he really has that much upside.  I mean his fatball is avg and his control has been poor so I doubt he’d be the cornerstone of any trades but rather another prospect that is thrown in the mix.

Re: 72,

I don’t know if he’s considered a “prospect” any more, because of how much time he’s been on the ML roster.  However, I think he’s still consider a top young pitcher.  You wonder if he has the upside because he hasn’t had success, and all the articles you read are negative.  When do the NY press print positives if they can find “an unnamed scout” to say something negative?

I think young pitchers have ups-and-downs all the time, with command and probably throwing the fastball consistently as well.  Look at King Felix - at 22 he had the worst K/BB rate of his career.  Hughes will improve.  He’s one of those guys that if you trade him now, he’ll be the, “you trade Phil Hughes for that guy!  Phil Hughes???”.

Or he’ll blow out his arm and never pitch again, one of the two.