SIGN LOWE!

I don’t have the authority.  Try emailing bcashman@yankees.com.

Good stuff, SG.  I figure Pettitte can be roughly that good next year and will take a 1-year deal.  Thing is, if Moose quits then Lowe may be needed.  Plugging in a decent pitcher who should be good for 200 innings would be very useful. 

I see NoMaas has come to the same conclusion: bring Moose and Pettitte back with 1-year deals, if possible.  Sign CC.

Easily said.  Not so easily done.

I see NoMaas has come to the same conclusion: bring Moose and Pettitte back with 1-year deals, if possible.

Yeah, I don’t see the sense in signing any non-ace pitchers long-term if you’re using EVERY SINGLE FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK on pitchers.  Bringing back Moose and/or Pettitte buys the farm a little more time without committing big dollars for several years.  At some point some of the pitching prospects have to pan out, right?

Now, Sabathia’s a different story, but Lowe, eh.  I wouldn’t be broken up about signing him but I wouldn’t really be excited about it either.

I’m assuming the new Yankee Stadium’s park factors will be the same as the old Stadium since the dimensions are the same, but there are other factors that could change that.

dimensions are the same but the foul territory is different.  not sure how much this impacts the park factors.

Yeah, I don’t see the sense in signing any non-ace pitchers long-term if you’re using EVERY SINGLE FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK on pitchers.

is there really any blue-chip position player talent left by the time the Yankees pick?

Pettite and Mussina are obviously both preferred to Lowe. Basically you’re getting Lowe type quality with a stopgap style contract. No one heard of Al Aceves or thought Phil Coke would be any part of the 2008 Yankees, so who knows who we’ll be talking about this time next year.

is there really any blue-chip position player talent left by the time the Yankees pick?

I think they missed out on Saltalamacchia a few yeas back. Hindsight is 20/20 though, so that’s not really fair.

dimensions are the same but the foul territory is different.  not sure how much this impacts the park factors.

Wind could be different based on the direction the new stadium faces, as well as the batter’s eye.  You never really know how a park will play out, dimensions are just one part of it.

so who knows who we’ll be talking about this time next year.

Phil Hughes, Yankees’ 2009 WS MVP, of course.

I think they missed out on Saltalamacchia a few yeas back. Hindsight is 20/20 though, so that’s not really fair.

yeah, there are probably a bunch of guys they missed pre-2005.  that was before they revamped the draft process.

i think SG is mainly referring to the IPK, Brackman, Cole succession of picks.

The Yanks have lots of pitching in the pipeline.  That being the case, it seems a bit foolish to sign middle of the rotation starters like Derek Lowe - especially as the team’s primary shortcoming last season was on offense.  Obviously, someone like Sabathia would be another story.  Really though, the Yanks would be best served by bringing back Mussina and Pettitte on one year deals and letting Joba and Hughes do their thing.

By the way, some media dope, probably Joel Sherman was talking about how Jacoby Ellsbury has “blossomed” for Boston this year.  Ellsbury is a nice player, but he’s 25 and just finished a full season’s worth of at bats with an OPS+ of 89.  That is basically Melky circa 2007.

Lowe has never been on the DL, he throws ground balls and he eats innings.  When you are talking about giving the kids an extra off day and whatnot to limit innings, thats a big deal.  I know Pettitte eats innings, but he was, whats the word I am looking for, shitty last year.  He looks toasty.

Oh, and you know what you can do with Pettitte and your xFIP?  You can set it aflame, do you know how many years Mariano Rivera’s xFIP has been equal to or more than his ERA?

like, once, I think.  Its just a garbage stat.

By the way, some media dope, probably Joel Sherman was talking about how Jacoby Ellsbury has “blossomed” for Boston this year.  Ellsbury is a nice player, but he’s 25 and just finished a full season’s worth of at bats with an OPS+ of 89.  That is basically Melky circa 2007.

But he’s fast!!  And gritty!!!

Oh, and you know what you can do with Pettitte and your xFIP?

Who said anything about xFIP?  Pettitte had 4 good months and 2 bad ones.  You’re letting his August and September fade color your perception of him. He should still be solid next year assuming good health and an offseason without PED distractions affecting his conditioning program.

Heads up! A big Yankee fan is organizing an Ultimate Yankee Fan Package for all you die hard Yankee fans. The package will include an autographed baseball, and other Yankee memorabilia. But get this! You also receive your very own New York Minute in honor of the final game held at Yankee Stadium! The minute comes with a collectible clock and certificate of authenticity. Some Yankee greats already have this super awesome collector’s item and now so can Yankee fans! The packages will be auctioned off on eBay. Stay tuned for more information.

Stay tuned for more information.

I’m tingling with anticipation.

I’m mildly impressed with the spelling, capitalization, and punctuation in that spam.

Cassandra, what are your thought on xFIP?  does it tend to overrate Pettitte’s performance this season?

Like pretty much everyone else, I wouldn’t mind Lowe being a Yankee, but he sure isn’t, like, a major acquisition.

I’d prefer bringing back Petttitte and Moose (and, of course, adding CC ).

I’m curious how many people would take a 25 man that looked like this going into 2009:

LF Soriano
CF Melky
RF Rivera/Thames

1B N. Johnson/C. Pena
2B Cano
SS Jeter
3B Lowell
C Posada
DH Matsui

BUC Navarro
OF Gardner/Melky
IF Betemit
+ ? (Ransom, etc..)

P Wang
P Chamberlain
P Pettitte
P Lilly
P Hughes

Bullpen: Rivera, Brunery, Veras… etc (from the 2008 team)

i don’t think that’s markedly better than what they could end up with.

If everyone is going to be homegrown, why is Betemit included, or “Brunery” or even Veras?  And where are Randy Keisler, Randy Choate, Brian Anderson and Brandon Claussen?  Let’s also forget that Lilly was part of the Hideki Irabu trade, so he doesn’t bleed pinstripes either.

I realize no one said anything about xFIP.  I was just prearguing!

And I don’t know why I turned on Andy.  But I have, its over between us.  Sign Lowe!  Sign Moose!

i don’t think that’s markedly better than what they could end up with.

True. But since this teams payroll is probably like $90-$100M, maybe you add Sabathia with a little less reservation?

If everyone is going to be homegrown, why is Betemit included, or “Brunery” or even Veras?  And where are Randy Keisler, Randy Choate, Brian Anderson and Brandon Claussen?  Let’s also forget that Lilly was part of the Hideki Irabu trade, so he doesn’t bleed pinstripes either.

I wasn’t going for just homegrown.. I was just going for what the roster could be going into 2009 had certain moves that ended up bearing little/no fruit not been made. The obvious argument to make is that sometime around 2002 to 2007 would have been completey different than it was (missing the playoffs, etc..). The point wasn’t to pick those who “bleed pinstripes”.. just those that could be on the Yankees now because they were dealt away at some point.

“Brunery”

Dude, I’m multitasking over here. I can’t be responsible for spelling.

And Manny!  And El Duque!

Is a Brunery like a winery, only with less snobbishness?

Wow, I went a little overboard there with the T’s.

By the by, I wanted to see the Phillies’ home runs, so I clicked on ESPN’s video highlights, and I heard something that y’all will love.

Kruk, talking about the Phillies, “And they have Cole Hamels going in Game 5, who has been dominant in the postseason, almost as good as Jon Lester.”

For serious, Krukkie? For serious? The SAME NIGHT that Lester gets rocked, he’s saying this!

I realize no one said anything about xFIP.  I was just prearguing!

I’m an xFIP skeptic myself.  I like regular FIP although I only give it about 1/3 of the weight in my pitching projections.

Sign Lowe!  Sign Moose!

Sign CC.  Sign Moose.  Sign Pettitte.  That’ll probably cost you $45 million or so, but Moose and Pettitte can probably be had for just one year, then $20 million frees up in 2010.  By then you’ll hopefully have Joba’s and Hughes’s innings built up to the point where they can be full-time starters, and you can spend that $20 million on a badly needed position player or two.

then $20 million frees up in 2010

Plus $13M apiece for Damon and Matsui.

I’m an xFIP skeptic myself.  I like regular FIP although I only give it about 1/3 of the weight in my pitching projections.

Presumably xFIP and FIP tend to match in a large sample?  Is there too much variance for it to be useful?

True. But since this teams payroll is probably like $90-$100M, maybe you add Sabathia with a little less reservation?

just doing it quickly, i get more like $140-150M.

Soriano - $16M
Juan Rivera - Free agent, figure $5M?
Pena - $8M
Cano - $6M
Jeter - $20M
Lowell - $13M
Posada - $13M
Matsui - $13M
Wang - arbitration, $6M?
Pettitte - Free Agent, $12M?
Lilly - $12M
Rivera - $15M

= $139M + figure another $10M for the rest of the roster?

Presumably xFIP and FIP tend to match in a large sample?

For the most part this is true, but in the specific case of extreme ground ball pitchers I’ve always felt xFIP tends to underrate their ability to have a lower than expected HR/FP rate.  However, to be truthful, I’ve never actually looked at my assumption empirically and I probably should.

By the by, I wanted to see the Phillies’ home runs, so I clicked on ESPN’s video highlights, and I heard something that y’all will love.

can you check to see if that Stairs HR landed yet?

It really was an amazing blast.

I was just going for what the roster could be going into 2009 had certain moves that ended up bearing little/no fruit not been made.

So wait, Soriano for A-Rod bore little/no fruit?

So wait, Soriano for A-Rod bore little/no fruit?

Count the rings!  Count the rings!

However, to be truthful, I’ve never actually looked at my assumption empirically and I probably should.

I think someone at HBT did a study on this a few years ago, basically trying to answer the question of if Wang’s performance was for real when xFIP said he shouldn’t be that good.  I’m pretty sure that they found - I think using other extreme GB pitchers as well - that xFIP underrates the GB pitchers, they they really DO let up less HR per FB.

I really don’t think Pettitte/Lowe are mutually exclusive.  I think the Yanks will make a strong effort to sign CC, and they’ll probably have Pettitte as well.  I think Lowe comes into play either if 1) Moose does indeed retire or 2) they can’t sign CC.  Even though Lowe is “mediocre” or a little better, I wouldn’t mind having him for 3 years if they can’t get CC, because after 2009 there’s a VG chance Moose (if he pitches in 2008) and Pettitte will both retire, and I think they could still use another veteran after Wang.  If they can also manage to avoid an NTC, he may be tradeable as well.

Count the rings!  Count the rings!

ironically enough (in the Michael Kay way), Soriano may be the one guy (9 figure contract division) who is even worse in the postseason than A-Rod….

.213/.263/.299 in 174 ABs.

.107/.138/.107 the last 2 years with the Cubs…

sooner or later someone will figure this out, sorry Alfonso!!

Lowe’s slider has looked a lot better this post-season than I remember it being in years prior, but a 36 yr old career innings eater just sends up to many red flags for me.  In my head he keeps turning into Livan Hernandez awfully quickly.

Oh, the TBS guys were mentioning it quite a bit during the series with the dodgers.  In game three they kept cutting to Soriano in the dugout looking dejected while mentioning how brutal his last couple of series have been.

sorry Alfonso!!

Its not his fault he never saw a slider away he didn’t want to swing at.

Yankees fire Bobby Meachum and Rich Monteleone.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3642999

I liked Monteleone, but can’t say that I’ll miss Meachum.

No one will miss Meacham except opposing catchers and their managers.  He was just an awful, awful 3B coach.  First, there was a rash of “aggressive” sends followed by a bout of ridiculous caution.  Even an average 3B coach will look wonderful after Meacham.

Even an average 3B coach will look wonderful after Meacham.

Dale Sveum?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394181925330941.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace

I doubt baseball will be entirely immune from the economic malaise that is becoming apparent.  Perhaps salaries won’t be as outlandish as the agent’s demands.  This environment makes 1-year contracts that much more attractive.  Sign Moose and Pettitte!

Even an average 3B coach will look wonderful after Meacham.

I recommend an average hand-whirling robot, that windmills randomly. That would lose the Yankees approximately the same number of games as Meacham.

Point is, it is likely irrelevant. Meacham did not make or break the season with his “third base coaching.” While I can’t get too worked up in either direction over his firing, I think it is, at best, an inconsequential move.

On the contrary, the economic malaise ought to hit the Yankees especially hard given New York’s prominence as a financial center and the fact that many of the guys who previously would have been willing to pay $2500 for a seat in the new Yankee Stadium are now looking for a job.  The Yanks will no longer be dealing with unlimited demand and they will have to lower prices or endure unsold tickets.  This does not mean the Yanks will suddenly become the Rays budget-wise, but it does mean the Stadium will not be the license to print money many thought it would be, at least not if the current financial situation persists.

don’t forget lowe wasn’t a full time starter until 2002. he may not get rusty for a few more years.

Peavy available?

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/10/14/sports/padres/zbfde541040a37bc8882574e20005978d.txt

I don’t know how to link here, but hope this can be read.

Point is, it is likely irrelevant. Meacham did not make or break the season with his “third base coaching.” While I can’t get too worked up in either direction over his firing, I think it is, at best, an inconsequential move.

this is exactly my take on it.

he wasn’t really “fired”, since he had a 1 year contract, but i’d guess the difference between the best and worst 3B coach is only a handful of runs.

but i’d guess the difference between the best and worst 3B coach is only a handful of runs.

Yeah, “worst” is only a theorhetical exercise.  I’m sure the “worst” 3B coach would cost a team a hundred runs in a season.  But they would never get a job in the big-leagues.  But worst who could be employed to best I’d hazard the spread is 10 runs at most.  One game would not have saved the season. 

Of coruse too, there’s the argument that these runs can often be the critical ones.  E.g. runner on 3rd with nobody out and down by a run, FB to medium RF.  Send the runner or wait and hope for a better chance next batter?  Eh, firing Meachum is a nice PR move, and it’s not like they are hurting the team by doing so.  If nothing else, this is showing that the Yanks are looking to move forward.

I’d like to see the Yankees enter 2009 with four veteran starters with Joba as the fifth starter and Hughes needing to fight his way into the rotation.  So, that means Wang plus three of CC, Pettite, Mussina, and Lowe.  If the Yankees can only get two of those guys, I think they have to consider Burnett or some sort of trade.

So wait, Soriano for A-Rod bore little/no fruit?

That certainly does not apply for that trade. Perhaps ‘little/no fruit’ is a poor choice of words. I really was just thumbing through the trades and thought that if they had no made no trades, they would have a pretty good team, but as yup pointed out, the cost might be nearly the same.

How hurt is Sheets?  Yes, I know, awful injury history, etc.  But is he supposed to be ready for next season?  If not, perhaps he’d be (relatively) inexpensive—and perhaps ready by mid-season, just as Joba/Hughes’ innings are a concern.  Point is, he might make sense alongside some pitchers who are likely to eat innings.  He’s young enough (right?) that you can be confident he’ll not soon be blocking a better pitcher (because when he’s healthy almost no one is better).

Sheets has had 3 straight years where he topped 150 IP only once. After that, this year was his 198 IP campaign, and he couldn’t stay healthy.

The guy has seen DL every year the last 4 years. Yankees need reliable pitchers who would be able to give them innings. Sheets does not qualify, IMO.

i’d love to see them work out some sort of incentive laden deal with Sheets where he can cash in big in 2010, but i doubt that will happen. 

i’d also like to see them sign Rocco Baldelli…

But is he supposed to be ready for next season?

I think his agent said that his injury required only a month of rest, and that he’ll be ready for full duty in 2009. I guess the question is whether or not you believe him.

i’d also like to see them sign Rocco Baldelli…

Yes!

I guess the question is whether or not you believe him.

My (incoherently stated) position was that I hoped he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season—thus driving down his price.  I agree with [56] that the Yankees need reliable pitchers—but they also need excellent pitchers.  CC is really the only one out there who will probably fit both descriptions 3 years from now.

Okay, I just went and looked at Sheets’ numbers and I take it all back.  Don’t know where I got the idea he was better than he is, but I did.  Skip it.

Don’t know where I got the idea he was better than he is, but I did.

That 2004 was really something.

From what I understand, Sheets may not need surgery, so I don’t think he’ll come cheaply, although he may be willing to sign a one year deal to build up his value.  I wouldn’t see the harm in seeing if he’d be amenable to something like that, although it would seem that if he was Milwaukee would keep him.

Wow, I just looked up the season Randy Johnson had in 2004 in the NL. Blew the competition, only to see Roger Clemens will Cy Young because the Astros made post-season.

As great as Clemens has been in his career, he has robbed two guys of legitimate Cy Youngs because sportwriters are idiots: Johnson in 2004 and Mussina in 2001.

Mussina came in fifth in 2001.  Even if Clemens had tripped over his syringe and sustained a season ending injury in April of that year, the winner instead would have been Mark Mulder.

That certainly does not apply for that trade. Perhaps ‘little/no fruit’ is a poor choice of words. I really was just thumbing through the trades and thought that if they had no made no trades, they would have a pretty good team, but as yup pointed out, the cost might be nearly the same.

I figured as much, but I also thought it couldn’t hurt to clarify! Thanks.

Mussina came in fifth in 2001.  Even if Clemens had tripped over his syringe and sustained a season ending injury in April of that year, the winner instead would have been Mark Mulder.

That’s exactly where I have this issue. Mussina should have won in that season, he was the best pitcher by almost any metric other than win totals. But he didn’t even come close.

That just shows you how ignorant the sportswriters were.

That just shows you how ignorant the sportswriters were.

Were?

Were?

I believe they have improved. At least a section of sportswriters are more knowledgeable than the Buster Olneys of the world.

But your point is well taken. It should have been “are.”

I believe they have improved.

we will see where K-Rod finishes this year…

“As great as Clemens has been in his career, he has robbed two guys of legitimate Cy Youngs because sportwriters are idiots: Johnson in 2004 and Mussina in 2001. “

In addition, a huge argument can be made that Clemens robbed Donnie Mattingly of a second MVP in 86 or more precisely the writers did it.

Yanks will need to consider paying a multi year to Wang this winter ala Cano?  We found out that he may be as valuable to the team as anyone going forward particularly given his age. 

Balldelli is a fine player but has some health problem that renders him prone to exhaustion. How does that affect his marketability?

Mussina may not want to come back for one year. I think he’ll either want a multiyear or retire. I don’t see a one year as an option as attractive as it sounds. With a 20 win season the Moose has leverage.

In 2001, Mark Mulder, Freddy García and Jamie Moyer all had excellent years.  I don’t believe Mussina was obviously gypped in the same way that Mariano Rivera and Johan Santana were robbed in 2005 when Bartolo Colon won the Cy.

2001:
Freddy Garcia:
Innings pitched: 238.7
W-L: 18-6.
ERA: 3.05.
ERA+: 136.
K/BB: 163/69.

Jamie Moyer:
Innings pitched: 209.7
W-L: 20-6.
ERA: 3.43.
ERA+: 121.
K: 119/44.

Mark Mulder:
Innings pitched: 229.3
W-L: 21-8.
ERA: 3.45.
ERA+: 126.
K: 153/51.

Mike Mussina:
Innings pitched: 228.7
W-L: 17-11.
ERA: 3.15.
ERA+: 142.
K: 214/42.

The only person who is close to Mussina in overall effectiveness is Freddy Garcia. A 1-2 between any two of them might have made sense. None of the others are deserving of a Cy Young. I would take Mussina, but I won’t be too upset if it were Garcia.

Clemens won because his win/loss record read 20-3. Mussina finished fifth because he finished 17-11. No other reason. And that is the dumbest reason to vote for a pitcher.

I agree that Santana was robbed in 2005, by the way. More than Rivera. But I agree both were more deserving than Colon.

For completeness:

Roger Clemens:
Innings pitched: 220.3
W-L: 20-3.
ERA: 3.51.
ERA+: 128.
K: 213/72.

You really should include the WHIP figures, as that is a far better measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness than ERA or ERA+.  Using that metric, Mussina is not as clear cut a choice as you make it out to be.

Fine.

WHIP in 2001:

Clemens -  1.257
Mussina -  1.07
Garcia -  1.12
Moyer   -  1.10
Mulder -  1.16

If anything, it bolsters the case for Mussina.

Not really.  The difference between 1.07, 1.10, 1.13 and 1.16 is altogether negligible.  Mussina winning the award in 2001 would have been fine, but the same goes for Garcia, Moyer or Mulder - just not Clemens.

In other news, the “blossoming” Jacoby Ellsbury has been benched for tonight’s game because he has not had a hit in his last 20 at bats.  But we won’t hear Joel Sherman mention that, because only the Yankees make mistakes, and playoff teams are composed of nothing but gritty, scrappy winners and young athletic players.

Can I play the 2001 Cy Young game too?

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
lwRA: ERA calculated using linear weights
fRSAR: FIP runs saved above replacement
lwRSAR: Linear weights runs saved above replacement
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement using ERA
avgRSAR: Average of fRSAR, lwRSAR, RSAR

Moose would’ve gotten my vote.

I like WHIP, but it counts a single the same as a homer.

As Ian Kennedy can tell you, they are not the same.

Joe…Mays…???!!!?!!

I like WHIP, but it counts a single the same as a homer.

Do you like xWHIP?

Moose would’ve gotten my vote.

And Joe Mays would have gotten mine, only because if he had won we would have had one of the flukiest winners ever.  Joe Mays!

Can I play the 2001 Cy Young game too?

My knight in shining armour.

The difference between 1.07, 1.10, 1.13 and 1.16 is altogether negligible.  Mussina winning the award in 2001 would have been fine, but the same goes for Garcia, Moyer or Mulder - just not Clemens.

I think you are missing the point. Mussina has done better than the competition in almost every metric imaginable other than innings pitched and the W/L ratio. He is the most deserving, unless you out an extraordinary amount of weight on WHIP at the exclusion of everything else that I put forward to make the case for Mussina.

In any case, my counsel SG has spoken. Also, I would like to call Mr. Mileskey as my key witness. Unless he keeps yelling “SIGN LOWE!”

I respond with “HOOCHIE MAMA!”

Can I play the 2001 Cy Young game too?

Lists like these make it easy to see why we went to the World Series so often back then. The top 3 pitchers in RSAR in the AL East all wore the same uniform.

Wow. Joe Mays really sucked after 2001. I guess that is another point in favour of controlling Joba and Hughes’ innings totals.

here’s some bad news

• Yankee outfielder Austin Jackson showed easy raw power in BP, even though he often swings off his front foot. In games, however, he struggled both in catching up to better fastballs and in adjusting to breaking stuff away.

Jackson is 21 years old and still a bit raw.  I wouldn’t necessarily say it was “bad news” that he still needs to make some adjustments.  Aside from Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, few players are studs at that age.

Lists like these make it easy to see why we went to the World Series so often back then.

Huh?

That list didn’t have A-Rod on it at all, and isn’t he the reason the Yankees aren’t going to the World Series?

Do note that the last time they went to the World Series was also the last year before he joined the team!

TOTAL PROOF!

Huh?

My sarcasm-meter is in the shop. I was just commenting on how we used to have great starting pitching.

Hehe…my apologies. I thought “Total proof” was the clearest touch.

But yeah, obviously, it’s nuts how folks keep ignoring that simple fact - 1996-2003 = good starting pitching
2004-2007 = not good starting pitching
2008 = not good starting pitching, but now not good hitting, also

SG—I am sure I don’t understand the way you calculate these things out but over the last 5 years the AL has played .557 ball against the NL, and over the last 3 years the AL has played better than .582 against the NL—shouldn’t that indicate that the AL is more than 4% superior to the NL? I mean, over the last 3 years they have won 42% more games than the NL in head to head matchups. If you look at the last 10 years of interleague play, then the difference is a lot less noticeable, but I feel like 1200 games is a big enough sample size to determine that the NL is terribly inferior to the AL.

Lowe’s last two years in Boston he gave had ERAs of 4.47 and 5.42 and he allowed 50 more hits than innings pitched, but his ERA in the NL is about 3.50 and he has allowed less than a hit an inning. Given how many pitchers have fallen off so much on going to the AL and how many have had their stats improve so substantially on going to the NL, I fear that the difference between the leagues is a lot greater than you account for here. And if it’s not, then why has every .500 team in the AL played like a .580 team when they go against the NL for the last 3 years?

For the last 5 years, the Yanks have gotten burned EVERY SINGLE TIME they have acquired a pitcher from the NL - Vizcaino, Brown, Johnson, Pavano (even before his injuries), Vazquez, Wright, Marte, etc. They have fared better with absolute total scrubs from the AL like Ponson and Small than they have fared picking up absolute stars from the NL. I just feel like NL pitchers will—at best—take a year or two to adjust to the AL (a la Beckett) and at worst will be total busts. I’d much rather go with long time AL guys like Sabathia and Burnett than deal with guys like Lowe and Peavy getting knocked around for 5 months while they get adjusted to the competition.

Am I wrong?

Um, while RJ was no superstar as a Yank, he was miles better than Sidney Ponson or Aaron Small.  If you need to post EMPHATICALLY RIDICULOUS COMPARISONS perhaps you should visit the LoHud blog message board.

Lowe’s last two years in Boston he gave had ERAs of 4.47 and 5.42 and he allowed 50 more hits than innings pitched, but his ERA in the NL is about 3.50 and he has allowed less than a hit an inning.

And in 2002 he put up a 2.58 ERA and possibly deserved to win the Cy Young.

Am I wrong?

Kind of.

Head to head matchups overstate the talent difference IMO, because the AL has a significant advantage over the NL with the DH.  The average AL DH is a far better hitter than the top pinch-hitter on an NL team, who will likely be serving as the DH since NL teams cannot afford to carry a roster spot for an all-hit no-field player.

The 4% difference is the difference between the talent levels between the two leagues.  On top of that, you do have to add the fact that a pitcher’s strikeouts will drop as they switch leagues, that they will give up more hits and HRs, and

For the last 5 years, the Yanks have gotten burned EVERY SINGLE TIME they have acquired a pitcher from the NL - Vizcaino, Brown, Johnson, Pavano (even before his injuries), Vazquez, Wright, Marte, etc.

Is that an NL problem or is that a bad choice of pitchers?

Vizcaino was good for most of his Yankee tenure, with a bad start and a bad finish.  For the most part he was useful.

Brown was fine in his first season, then he got hurt.

Randy Johnson was 75 years old and had bad knees.

Carl Pavano had a fluke season in 2003 that totally belied his peripherals and projected to be league average.  He really didn’t underperform by all that much if you knew he wasn’t a 3.00 ERA guy.

Vazquez was a disappointment, but I think he was hurt in the second half.  He made the All Star team for crying out loud.

Jaret Wright has sucked in every season of his career but two. One was his rookie year, and one was his fluke year in Atlanta.  Did he underperform as a Yankee or was he a horrible pickup?

Marte?  Eh, he threw 18.3 bad innings.  It means he sucks as much as Ian Kennedy’s 19 great innings last year mean he’s awesome.  Marte’s a good pitcher who had a bad run.

The way to look at how the AL/NL switch affects pitchers is to compare what players who’ve pitched in both leagues have done, ensuring that you use the same weights for both samples and account for aging and park factors.  I haven’t run my numbers to include 2008 yet but I’ll see if I can dig up the original spreadsheet where I did that work and post it at some point.

Nice opening to the Boston/Tampa Bay game.

The power display Tampa Bay has been putting on in the playoffs has got to be some sort of record, doesn’t it?

To follow up, if you compare Lowe’s Dodger projection to his his Yankee projection, you can see that the actual difference in his projected value is actually closer to 37%. 

When I say there’s a 4% talent difference, it assumes everything is constant except the league the player is playing in.  You do have to add in the DH, defense and park factors on top of it.  Hopefully that clears it up some.

“You do have to add in the DH”

What about IL games played in the NL?  Where the AL teams have a significant disadvantage with pitchers hitting?

So the RS have to burn their pen today, but get tomorrow as an off-day thanks to the tvized schedule.

I like Dannux’s points in #90.
When was the last time an NL pitcher came to the Yanks and made a major contribution?
Johnny Wett?
I’m drawing a complete friggin blank and I respectfully request some help.

Does Andy Pettitte in 2007 count?

If not, then John Wetteland is the first name that comes to mind.

What about IL games played in the NL?  Where the AL teams have a significant disadvantage with pitchers hitting?

Is it really that big an advantage that the NL pitchers have hit before?  I mean, unless you’re talking about being able to run the bases without fracturing anything in their foot of course.  Then I concede the point.  But I would bet the hitting lines for NL and AL pitchers is much, much, much closer than the hitting lines for the DH’s for interleague.

Go Tampa!  I was hoping that it would be Bad Wake that showed up today.

“If you need to post EMPHATICALLY RIDICULOUS COMPARISONS perhaps you should visit the LoHud blog message board.”

Fair enough. Please don’t send me to LoHud. But I was only mentioning those guys to make a point—and I’ll avoid capitalization from now on. And by no means in a million years will I argue that we should try to pad the rotation with guys like Ponson, but I worry that NL guys without unbelievably good stuff just about never come over and pitch well, and often they pitch terribly. And I’m certainly not trying to get in anyone’s face here—I just want to better understand what potential impact the disparity between the AL and the NL impacts guys coming over to the Yanks.

“Is that an NL problem or is that a bad choice of pitchers?”

We all know what happened to each of those guys, and I realize injuries came into play with several. That goes without saying, and it is fair for you to point out the problems those guys had with injuries and that several had flukey seasons in the NL, and I certainly cherry-picked a few stats along the way. But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t both an NL probelma and a Yankee scouting problem. I mean—and I won’t capitalize this time—every one of those guys disappointed and none exceeded expectations. And I don’t think there are other guys that I left out—I went through the rosters the last 5 years and none of the Yanks NL pick ups (except maybe sort of Vazquez) did anything respectably decent except Clemens and Pettite, both of whom still fell off substantially. Brown was OK, but still had his ERA go up 1.6 runs.

If you look at the top 30 ERA leaders in the NL this year, 7 of those guys came over from the AL in the last 2 years (Santana, Lowe, Haren, Moyer, Lohse, Johnson, Lilly—and this list doesn’t include Sabathia and Harden) and all but Johnson exceeded this year what they had done in their careers in the AL. In the AL, the only guys in the top 30 who spent anything close to half their careers in the NL are Floyd (who had less than 20 starts in the NL) and Beckett, whose ERA in the AL is substantially higher than it was in the NL—but he is still obviously quite good. It’s not just the Yanks who don’t pick well off of NL rosters—nobody in the AL seems to do well trading for NL pitchers.

“When I say there’s a 4% talent difference, it assumes everything is constant except the league the player is playing in.” 

OK, I understand that a little better now, but…

“The average AL DH is a far better hitter than the top pinch-hitter on an NL team, who will likely be serving as the DH since NL teams cannot afford to carry a roster spot for an all-hit no-field player.”

I’ve heard this before but I am still a little confused, because the AL plays above .500 on the road (!) in NL parks with no DH. Taking that into account, if there is only a 4% difference in talent, then why would that be? And if it is because AL teams have a great hitter on the bench, then maybe NL teams should consider carrying an all-hit-no-field guy, because all things considered, it seems to work. 

I mean, is the other 38% difference in the AL and NL’s interleague wins not accounted for by the talent difference as you have it calculated entirely because of the DH?

“I haven’t run my numbers to include 2008 yet but I’ll see if I can dig up the original spreadsheet where I did that work and post it at some point.”

That would be great.

Thanks SG.