If a big lug like Eric Hinske can play a passable RF, I don’t see why Montero can’t at some point, especially if he really works at it.  Given his bat, if he could work himself into a -5 or so OF defensively, that would be fine.

That being said, it would still be great if Montero could play 50 games per year behind the dish.

Even speaking from the anatomical region SG suggests, given the size of LF at NYS, and the fact that he hasn’t played the outfield, it’s hard to believe that in toto he would be a meaningful upgrade this year over TSBG. 

I think Montero’s eventual Yankee destiny is in right, but I don’t think he should be on the big club this year unless there’s a serious injury to Nick Johnson (unthinkable, I know).

Ideally, let the guy either finish learning to catch, or prove that he’ll need another position. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to start his money clock a year later.

^ This

You risk messing up a tremendous prospect by rushing him to the majors and having him learn a new position on the fly (and he’s not a defensive wiz to begin with).  It’s nutty.

I really appreciate the post, and it’s cool to now that if the assumptions are close to right, it may work out. That said, I don’t think you move him away from C unless you absolutely have to.

You risk messing up a tremendous prospect by rushing him to the majors and having him learn a new position on the fly (and he’s not a defensive wiz to begin with).  It’s nutty.

This has become received wisdom in recent years, but some of us are old enough to remember when it was par for the course to bring kids to the majors when they were ready to hit in the majors and just find a position for them to play based on what the big club needed.  Elston Howard played both OF corners when he first came up, and he played 50 games at 1B in 1959 after never playing that position in the minors (and playing 7 games there previously in his major league career).  Guys like Tony Kubek and Tom Tresh moved from IF to OF and back again.

I know that people will say that we understand the value of defense better now, but I’d say two things in reply:

1) The Yankees of the late fifties and early sixties were pretty good defensively; it’s possible that they just lucked into it, but I suspect they might have known a thing or two about evaluating defense even if they didn’t have fancy ways of quantifying it.

2) The inefficiency inherent in teams’ refusing to consider the value of positional flexibility really pisses me off.  And the over-valuing of guys like Jerry Hairston and Mark DeRosa because they’re willing and able to stand at four or five different places on the field while most of their colleagues insist on having a regular position pisses me off even more.  I’d wager that lots of guys could play multiple positions if their employers made it a requirement.  That’s why I like the fact that the Yankees make their minor league catchers work out at the infield corners, and I don’t see whey you wouldn’t make them shag some flies now and then too.

If nothing else, Montero should be working out in the OF similar to the way they are having him work out at 1B.

And for a more recent example, there’s Miguel Cabrera.  The Marlins stuck him in LF for 55 pennant race games when he was 20 years old.  He had never played above AA and had a total of 3 games in the OF in his minor league career.  It doesn’t seem to have messed him up as a hitter (although I suppose you could argue that the stress led to eating and drinking problems years later).

“The inefficiency inherent in teams’ refusing to consider the value of positional flexibility really pisses me off.  And the over-valuing of guys like Jerry Hairston and Mark DeRosa because they’re willing and able to stand at four or five different places on the field while most of their colleagues insist on having a regular position pisses me off even more.”

Mental note:  Do not discus politics or religion with MC.  Or Mattingly’s HOF case.  Or the wave-particle duality.  Or…

“If nothing else, Montero should be working out in the OF similar to the way they are having him work out at 1B.”

Agreed.  I’m skeptical if he would be passable out there—and to me Adam Dunn-esque defense is not close to passable—but if what John Manuel wrote is true—“The Yankees no longer talk about him as an everyday major league catcher.”—then you have to at least try him out there.

I would not, however, even consider him for LF or RF opening day, barring disaster.  Cabrera came up after little AA experience, but still had 120 more PA there and was in the middle of his age 20 season.  I don’t think Montero projects well enough this year to give him a full season (or even super 2 status) of service time, and if he can make himself passable in the OF, I don’t believe he has the athleticism to do so in one ST.

I’ll reserve judgement on the Montero matter. I’m anxious to see him play at the AAA level at least for a half season. I think if he goes wild and hits for average and power I can’t see how the club can resist bringing him up mid year-particularly if Yanks are having trouble against leftys (pitchers- not commies)

On Damon- since there is a budget that allows for only $2 million. Would it be feasible to give him a two year offer backloading the second year. $2 million for 2010, and $8 million for 2011 for an average of $5 mill. I’m not sure of the dollar amounts, but perhaps the team would be wary of doing a second year under any circumstance?

I remember in 2002 when I attended the first Yankee series ever in Coors and Joe Torre sought to get dh Nick Johnson into the lineup and he inserted him in left field. Murphy’s Law kicked in right away and somebody hit a hard liner right at him and of course he misjudged it and it went over his head.  He probably hadn’t taken much training in the outfield (if any)  but it was kind of humorous to the untrained eye.

<i>I don’t think Montero projects well enough this year to give him a full season (or even super 2 status) of service time

Of course, waiting until May 1 is usually enough to keep a guy from becoming a super-two.  Anyway, I wasn’t advocating that he be on the opening day roster.  I just don’t buy the idea that promoting him aggressively would wreck his development.  If he’s tearing up AAA and there’s an injury on the big club, then why not give him a shot to hit major league pitching for a while?

Mental note:  Do not discus politics or religion with MC.  Or Mattingly’s HOF case.  Or the wave-particle duality.  Or…

Oh yeah?  Well, you know what else pisses me off?  People who won’t discuss politics or religion or HOF cases or quantum mechanics or ...

If a big lug like Eric Hinske can play a passable RF

Personally, I don’t find Hinske’s defense in RF all that passable.

And for a more recent example, there’s Miguel Cabrera.  The Marlins stuck him in LF for 55 pennant race games when he was 20 years old.  He had never played above AA and had a total of 3 games in the OF in his minor league career.  It doesn’t seem to have messed him up as a hitter (although I suppose you could argue that the stress led to eating and drinking problems years later).

If you ask Miggy he won’t blame the Marlins for his problems, he blames his wife.

Oh, and this was brought up in the previous thread, but I agree that the best idea if they absolutely needed Jesus the catcher to become Jesus the outfielder would be to switch Swisher to LF and put Jesus in RF. Less ground to cover, his arm can be better utilized there, and all flyballs hit in DNYS to RF fly out of the stadium/city/country/atmosphere so he really wouldn’t have to do anything except stand there and wrangle ground balls that get through the infield.

and wrangle ground balls that get through the infield.

Why do you hate GG-er Teixeira?

[14]

Do you think the particle in a box is more applicable to the Yankees’ current bullpen or LF situation?

Hey, if Ryan Braun can stick in LF and still be incredibly valuable, so can Montero.

[18]

I can see it now:
x < 0 = the Yankees put nobody in LF: infinite potential for awful
x > Johnny Damon = the Yankees put Gary Sheffield/Jim Edmonds/Preston Wilson/Bernie Williams in LF: infinite potential for awful
0 < x < Damon = anything in between is a function of Brett Gardner’s strike zone management

you know, multiplied by the wave function

anything in between is a function of Brett Gardner’s strike zone management

Well, the strike zone is a box and the baseball can be thought of as a particle.

still, you have to be encouraged by a 20 year old that have only played half a season at AA projecting 258/.310/.444 .

Hopefully I’ll get a chance to see Montero play quite a bit this year.  Of course, last year it seemed every game I went to they gave Austion Jackson the day off (not true, but I think the first 5 games I went to I only saw him play once).  Not that I’m going to be sitting there with a stop-watch timing Montero or anything, but I should be able to have a pretty good idea of if he “looks” good.  E.g. for throwing is it a laser or a lolly-pop?  Are the throws on target or often high/low?  Even when the runner is safe is it at least close?  Etc.  Also does he look good blocking pitches, getting out on bunts, etc.

I agree with the sentiment that you leave him at C until he proves he can’t play there, OR they have a better option.  E.g. if Cervelli’s bat progresses enough, or Romine keeps getting better.  I disagree that you *can’t* move him to 3B.  ARod hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire defensively the last few years, and he certainly has the arm and the speed to play RF.  Also, getting older (and depending on what happens with his hip going forward), it may make more sense for Montero to play 3B and ARod to DH and be the backup 3B/1B.  Not in 2010 of course, but maybe by 2011.  This assumes Montero can handle 3B, and if the Yankees aren’t sold on him as a C I can see him getting some innings at 3B in SWB.

Who goes in the office refrigerator, takes half and half that they know they didn’t buy, and then finishes it? I mean, seriously people.. we’re supposed to be living in a society.

I agree with the sentiment that you leave him at C until he proves he can’t play there

I agree with this 100%, but my comment was actually more related to a discussion we had a while ago which suggested that we all adjust our threshold for what is passable at catcher. Since the average offensive contribution from that position is so low, I think the case was made that even someone who is just awful (like some suspect Posada is) should stay at C if they can perform the basic functions. If the issue with Montero is his pop time, I say eff it.. let the dude catch, and try to use the pitching staff to hold runners on better, and live with getting run on a little bit.

[26] I had to go back and find the comment you were referring to, b/c I wasn’t responding to you directly.  Really the position for Montero is where he benefits the club the most.  If he’s a -10 catcher that really isn’t that big a deal in and of itself, especially if he is +40 with the bat.  But if the Yankees have a better defensive catcher who is also a plus with the bat - potential candidates the next few years include Cervelli, Romine, and Murphy - and Montero can better field another position (say -3 in RF), it make sense to move him.  I think we’re all in agreement here.

Get a dry creamer and keep it at your desk.  Or booby-trap the one in the fridge.

[25] Jay Leno (sorry, I got nuthin’).

But I do have an unintended emoticon. I should use the preview feature.

[27a] Yeah, Romine makes this interesting.

[27b] We have free dry creamer but it’s gross.. which is why I go down to the CVS and buy my own. Maybe I’ll go with writing my name on it.. or maybe writing something sarcastic. Like a flowchart that tells you what to do with a decision block that reads something like “Did you buy this?”

[30a] For sure, best case is if Cervelli plays well enough to be a backup/spot starter, Montero improves enough to be roughly average behind the plate, and Romine progresses enough he looks to be a clear starter, they can have a top-5 catcher AND a piece to trade to get pretty much anything they want to.

[30b] Typically I do the “write my name on it”.  That works well in a small office where you know everyone; if your name is on it, they know for sure it is YOURS, and not something “for the office”.  Bigger office is hard; most of the people who would use stuff that isn’t theirs out of the fridge don’t care if your name is on it.  You can try a web-cam centered on the fridge and record who is using your creamer…but that may come off as a bit, um, crazy.

[25] http://www.passiveaggressivenotes.com

I’d save an empty carton and fill it with something really un-apetizing (but not actually harmful).  The putzes might think twice about stealing your creamer after they’ve poured baking powder and water into their coffee a few times.

[32] Some of those are hilarious. I may go with the ‘Jesus is watching you..’ one.

[33] Back in high-school we used to go camping a lot, and once one of the guys obsessed about staying awake all night.  So he wanted to take Vivarin, but we somehow managed to give him two Ex-Lax instead.  Good times, good times.

I think the odds of Cervelli having a plus bat to the ML level are less than the odds of Montero improving his defense enough to be passable.

As for Montero in LF, I hear you MC.  I phrased my argument poorly.  What I should have said is this:

You’re potentially rushing a prospect & having him play out of position for something like .258/.310/.444.  Gardner is a decent bet to best that OBP and the difference in SLG might be mitigated by his baserunning.  He’s a plus defender.  Montero won’t be.  Could he play a passable LF?  I suppose it’s possible.  But I don’t see the point of this, since I don’t see a scenario in which it’s actually an upgrade for the team.  So the risk of messing up his development, even if you think it’s small, isn’t worthwhile.

Having said that, if Montero starts shredding AAA pitching and Gardner isn’t hitting, I bet I’ll suddenly find the idea a lot more interesting.

I think the odds of Cervelli having a plus bat to the ML level are less than the odds of Montero improving his defense enough to be passable.

Part of the issues is what is “passable” defense - Montero may already be there - and what is a “plus” bat.  I wasn’t thinking Posada-level.  More of, “he hits pretty well for a catcher”.  Using FanGraphs #‘s, Cervelli in 101 PA was -3.7 runs after adjustments, and gets 3.2 back for the position adjustment.  So basically, he’s a little below average.  SSS and all apply, but I think he definitely has the tools that he could hit better than the average catcher.

And of course it’s not like I’m saying, “move Montero b/c they have Cervelli”.  I just think he’s one of the three (and yes the weakest of them) candidates who *could* play well enough in a few years to make it a no-brainer to move Montero, if Montero is Piazza-like defensively.

You’re potentially rushing a prospect & having him play out of position for something like .258/.310/.444.  Gardner is a decent bet to best that OBP and the difference in SLG might be mitigated by his baserunning.

Pretty much.  Gardner’s baseline projection of .262/.348/.356 and 50 SB/10 CS in 600 PAs would be about 10 BRAR in LF, compared to Montero’s baseline being worth 11 BRAR in 600 PAs, so they essentially project as a wash offensively.  Obviously you have to assume Gardner would be at least one win and probably more like two wins better defensively.

If you think Gardner’s projection is too optimistic and/or Montero’s is too pessimistic, then the gap shrinks some, but probably not enough to really make a Montero in LF scenario any tangible improvement.

Of course, long-term it may still make sense, but I think close to a full year in AAA is needed to gauge where Montero is offensively and defensively, although I guess a need at the MLB level could change the timetable.  It also would help to see what the Yankees have in the non-Montero catcher group amongst Romine, Gary Sanchez, J.R. Murphy and Kyle Higashioka.

I like Cervelli, but I think his ceiling is backup, at least for the Yanks.  CAIRO sees him peaking around .263/.330/.374 in 2013-2014, which would be about 1.0 WAR offensively.  If he’s a +10 defender, then that effectively makes him league average, but I have to think with the depth at catcher in the Yankee minors right now they are shooting for more than that from their starting catcher, whomever he may end up being.

Or booby-trap the one in the fridge.

I would suggest writing “POISON - DO NOT DRINK” on the bottle. Is someone really going to risk using that creamer if it MIGHT be poison?

Maybe find one of those classic “Mr. Yuck” stickers and throw that on there too.

If you think Gardner’s projection is too optimistic and/or Montero’s is too pessimistic, then the gap shrinks some, but probably not enough to really make a Montero in LF scenario any tangible improvement.

So the more apt comparison might be Montero vs Miranda at DH in the event of a Johnson injury.

Montero.

So the more apt comparison might be Montero vs Miranda at DH in the event of a Johnson injury.

True, and at this point that’s probably still advantage Miranda, particularly if you need a full-time DH who will see more time against righties than lefties.

Projected platoon splits:

<u>Juan Miranda</u>:.247/.331/.428 (.334 wOBA) overall, .261/.351/.453 (.354 wOBA) vs. RHP and .218/.292/.378 (.295 wOBA) vs. LHP

<u>Jesus Montero</u>:.258/.310/.444 (.327 wOBA) overall, .250/.300/.430 (.316 wOBA) vs. RHP and .274/.329/.472 (.347 wOBA) vs. LHP

Over 400 PAs vs. RHP, that’s a difference of around 13 runs in favor of Miranda. 

Over 200 PAs vs. LHP, it’s a nine run difference in favor of Montero. 

I guess ideally you’d have a DH platoon, of Miranda + a RHB.  If not Montero it could be someone else on the roster.

Anyway, I wasn’t advocating that he be on the opening day roster.  I just don’t buy the idea that promoting him aggressively would wreck his development.  If he’s tearing up AAA and there’s an injury on the big club, then why not give him a shot to hit major league pitching for a while?

I agree with all this.

I guess ideally you’d have a DH platoon, of Miranda + a RHB.  If not Montero it could be someone else on the roster.

It’s too bad neither Miranda nor Jorge Vazquez can play any position besides 1B, because they could make a pretty good platoon, but that’s too many roster spots tied up on 1B/DH when you also have a 12-man pitching staff.

From the Callis chat:

Rory (Sacramento)

Could Montero have the mobility to play left field adequately?

Jim Callis   (2:25 PM)

Maybe. We haven’t seen him out there to get much of a read on that.

Rory (Sacramento)

Is there a past or present player that you would compare Jesus Montero to in terms of what you expect him to be?

Jim Callis   (2:16 PM)

Miguel Cabrera.

The Yankee hype machine is going full blast this winter, eh.

Stengel had an abundance of catchers who could hit and used Elston Howard, Yogi and Blanchard in the outfield.

[47] I’ve made that point several times, but a few things should be noted in the interest of historical accuracy.  First, Ralph Houk (not Casey) was the manager from 1961-1963.  Second, Yogi caught very little in the sixties (only 15 games in 1961, eg).  Third, Howard caught very little until Yogi couldn’t really catch anymore.  Fourth, Blanchard only caught about 100 games as a Yankee (‘59-‘65).

So it was really more a case of Howard being brought up when he was ready to contribute offensively (and stuck in LF until the incumbant C needed to move).  Once Howard was the starter, they went with backups who could hit and hold their own in LF.

[48] And the Yankees played those years as the US Steel Smelters.  Other than that it checks out.

I didn’t realize Blanchard caught so little…memory is a tricky thing but I think I recall a picture in Ball Four of Blanchard in catcher’s gear pouring beer/champagne on Jim Bouton (who hated Blanchard) after clinching a pennant.  So to me Blanchard is a catcher. 

MC probably remembers seeing Blanchard in Little League.

I don’t know where Montero should play, but I do know if you want to keep half & half safe you pour it out of the carton and into those little baggies women who pump breast milk use. You’re welcome.

[51] Unless you share an office with body builders.

[51] Sounds like a good way to freak someone out when they see you using it…

Ynakees also converted Hector “whatta pair of hands” Lopez from an If to a mostly Of when they got him from KC in 1959.  Guess it beat playing him at 2b or 3b.

[53] Then just claim it’s the new big health craze. “Nothing is better for you than pure breast milk from a mother.”

[50] Can’t say that I spent much time in Minnesota in the ‘40s.  Anyway, it’s perfectly reasonable to remember Blanchard as a catcher.  He was a backup catcher who just happened to hit well enough to be worth sticking in the OF to get his bat in the lineup.

[55] Contains 100% all natural HGH!

Speaking of the OF:

Davidoff:

-The Yankees have about $2 million to spend on one more outfielder. If Johnny Damon is willing to come back for $2 million, then the job is his. But the Yankees don’t anticipate that occurring. Rather, they’re looking at righty-hitting outfielders like Xavier Nady and Rocco Baldelli.

I also still think there’s a chance that Brett Gardner winds up as the Yankees’ centerfielder, and Curtis Granderson as the leftfielder. I might write about that more over the weekend. Please don’t tell the competition.

[55] Uh, yeah that’s still gross.

OTOH you should be able to drop by your local Staples or restaurant supply store and get a box of those little 1/2 & 1/2 creamer cups they give you at diners. They don’t actually need to be refridgerated, you leave them in your desk.

Or, you could get this little lovely.

[46] Jim Callis is usually more of a red sox fan boy than his collegue, so comming from him that he think Montero feels like Miggy is a huge praise.

In re: [58]—/punches self in face repeatedly
In re: [60]—John Sickels gives Montero a Manny Ramirez comp here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/21/1263697/more-book-excerpts I’ll take it.
In re: past discussions—‘phil hughes naked pictures’ no longer has RLYW on the front page of Google, but ‘“phil hughes” “naked pictures”’ has the season in review as its third result.

But “naked fuse chamber ream” still takes you straight to the source.

[61] I enjoy that you spent time googling “phil hughes naked pictures” and “phil hughes” “naked pictures” for no apparent reason weeks after the discussion, then MC felt the need to google “naked fuse chamber ream” to further investigate.

This. site. is. awesome.

I like Cervelli, but I think his ceiling is backup, at least for the Yanks.

I agree 100% that is what is likely for him, to max out as an average catcher.  Which is great for the Yankees as a backup, as it also means if their starter is hurt for some time they don’t *have* to trade for a starter.  But I’m just thinking he has enough skills hitting that he could add a little power, or develop a little more patience and maybe be +20 hitting instead of +10 offensively.  For a few years anyway.  If Montero is +45 with the bat and -10 with the glove, and Cervelli is +20/+10 (assume all other candidates are worse), it probably makes sense to move Montero.

Off the top of my head, if I had to rank Yankee catchers from most->least likely to replace Posada, I’d say: Romine/Montero/Murphy/Sanchez/Cervelli/Higashioka.

Also, we forgot to mention that nobody ####s with the Jesus.