why does Klapish mention 1B, DH, and CF, but not LF?  isn’t that the most logical destination?

Jeter will probably be the SS for 2009 and 2010.  in 2011 they hopefully move him to LF and sign JJ Hardy.

If the Yankees don’t resign Damon, Matsui or Nady- all of which is possible and probably likely, it could leave a spot for Jeter in LF next season with Swisher in RF.

Whether Jeter would move to LF or could play the position are other issues, but that really seems to be the only feasible position for him going forward that I can think of other than SS or DH.

Yup beat me to it.

Both sides have a lot to lose here.  If Jeter refuses a pay cut or demands to stay at SS, he’s going to lose some status in fans’ minds.  This past season marked the first time that Jeter criticism seemed to be on the MSM’s minds. 

Likewise, the Yankees have always had a leg up on other franchises b/c of their brand name.  They generate a bigger share of the market b/c of things like “the pinstripes” and, dare i say it, “mystique and aura”.  More than other teams, they’ll NEED to hang onto a guy like Jeter.

So while the stats would probably lean towards letting him go, we have to remember that the shortcomings of Jeter are also (slightly) the reason we get guys like CC and Tex.

I think yup’s scenario is the most plausible.  There doesn’t seem to be any good free agent SS options for next year.  The problem for 2011 is that Hardy is the only likely option.  It is a long way off though so someone thats not even on our radar might be the answer then.

This is an interesting conundrum that I’ve been pondering for a while.

Barring 2 big bounceback seasons, there’s really no rational reason (leaving sentiment completely aside) to re-sign Jeter at the kind of money he’ll want and probably get on the market.  But the Jeter phenomenon has many extra-rational qualities. 

I though Klapisch’s frame was a little curious.  He seems focused on Teixeira somehow eclipsing Jeter as toast of the town and personification of the Yankees brand.  To me, it’s as much Teixeira’s contract (on top of Sabathia’s) that makes Jeter’s future a more vexing question, i.e. does the FO want to be paying another player $10-$15+ in AAV into his late thirties?  OTOH, Posada and Mariano will probably be coming off the books…and on yet another hand Cano and Wang will probably be set to make big bucks at that point, so who knows?

Klapisch does mention the fact that Teixeira locks up 1B, foreclosing another Jeter position switch option.  And that’s true, except even Jeter in his prime probably didn’t hit well enough to justify putting him at 1B.  The same, frankly, with a corner OF slot.  I still think CF is an option, assuming Melky doesn’t grow into his big-boy pants this year, because CF for the Yankees has a mysticism surrounding it—somehow it’s worthy of Jeter’s legend.  Which is not to say it’s a great idea in the real world.  A OF of Jeter-AJax-Swisher (no matter who fills which position) is not confidence-inspiring.

And then the question is: who would become the shortstop?  I don’t know who would be available via trade, but the only ‘10 free agent worth talking about is Khalil Greene, about whose character I know nothing but it better be one emotionally secure and mature dude who replaces Jeter at SS because the fishbowl will be intense.  Remember how they booed Tino when he struggled early in 1996, and he was replacing a guy who retired?

Anyway, assuming Jeter has roughly 2 more seasoons like ‘08—maybe a slight decline (but not a precipitous one that clearly justifies cutting him loose), what is he worth and how far does the FO go to keep him?

It would’ve been nice if he’d kept up enough of a pace to get the 3000th hit in late 2010.  That way, if he was kind of crappy, we could’ve had the 3000th hullabaloo as a nice sendoff and letting him go wouldn’t seem quite as callous or be quite the PR debacle.

I read this a couple days ago and was a bit turned off at Klapisch need to throw in a few backhanded remarks about A-Rod.

Barring 2 big bounceback seasons, there’s really no rational reason (leaving sentiment completely aside) to re-sign Jeter at the kind of money he’ll want and probably get on the market. 

good post, but i disagree with this one bit.  i actually DON’T think Jeter will get anywhere even close to what the Yankees would be probably willing to pay him on the open market.

in 2 years, he will likely not be viewed as a SS by other teams (although Renteria’s contract will expire in 2 years, hello Brian Sabean!).

if he’s not a SS, he just won’t be worth all that much.  and i don’t think moving to CF at 37 is very realistic.

this is going to get ugly.  i have no doubt.  i do NOT envy Cashman on this issue.  there is almost no solution that won’t cost the team more than it should or bring down a world of criticism on his shoulders.

I read this a couple days ago and was a bit turned off at Klapisch need to throw in a few backhanded remarks about A-Rod.

that’s not his fault.  every NY sportswriter is given a special version of Microsoft Word that automatically includes 2 negative A-Rod comments per article.

Posada seems like a stronger leader on the field. It is Jeter’s chemistry with fans and the media that makes him a good public face for the Yankees. If he declines gradually they will likely overpay him to a short term deal. I doubt that he would thrive in CF. Both Damon and Matsui will be gone, to my mind LF is the logical place for him in 2010.

Thanks yup, so what do you think is the bottom line? 3 years/$35m?  That seems more than generous.  But if you’re right that Jeter doesn’t have a lot of FA market value, maybe it doesn’t need to go that high.

I know it’s popular and all, but it really IS too early to be talking about Jeter after 2010.  There are so many things that not only could happen, but would fall in the realm of “very possible”.  E.g. based on the stuff he worked on last off-season, is his newer, better defense who Jeter is now (-.4 UZR)?  If yes, his hitting is still fine for a SS.  Can his hitting rebound at all (e.g. was the loss of power mostly because of being hit on the hand last year)?  Or going the other way, does his offense OR defense completely fall off a cliff?  Do one of the SS the Yankees took in the last two drafts excel so much the Yankees can’t NOT play them?  And that’s just from the on-field side, never mind the side about what Jeter wants to do.

Anyway, this just seems like something that it’s way to early to get worked up about…

every NY sportswriter is given a special version of Microsoft Word that automatically includes 2 negative A-Rod comments per article.

It’s part of the spell-checker…

I always thought that he would have been a great cf. good speed (while not a blazer he ran well enough), good baseball instincts, good arm sounded like the perfect combo. but that was three years ago (ala Robin Yount?).

Probably the greatest thing for DJ’s legacy would have been to announce how he was relinquishing shortstop to ARod when he first signed and he (Jeter) was going to make the move to third. I wonder if he’ll still do something similar by volunteering to move to LF or CF this year or next year.

Scratch #10, Jeter will likely get a Pettitte type offer.

i really don’t know.  it’s going to be VERY hard for the Yankees to put a price on Jeter for all of those things everyone has mentioned here.  i bet he gets something like $45M/3??  just guessing. 

i don’t know if i see an instance where Jeter is even allowed to test the FA market.  i can’t imagine the outcry if he doesn’t get an extension before their window expires.

hopefully they win a WS in the next 2 years and it makes a move to LF an easier sell for everyone.  my gut tells me the outcry will be dampened if the team wins a title.

Didn’t the numbers show that, offense+defense, Jeter was the best SS in the AL last year? Maybe Peralta passed him, I don’t know. But I think he’ll continue to be valuable there throughout his contract and probably a couple years after. He’s at 2535 hits now; if he averages ~170 the next two years (which, barring an injury, should happen), he’ll get to 3000 in 2011. I’m guessing he’ll look to be signed through 2012.

Not sure what to think. Hopefully, the Yankees winning the World Series once or twice will make any decision easier to accept.

Let’s just end this now.  Jeter is going to be a Yankee until he retires.  That part is not in question. 

As for where he will play, I agree with Mike K.  Jeter has been good enough recently that you don’t really need to talk about moving him right now.  In 2 years he’ll be 37.  Who knows how much longer he will want to play.  Mo will be off the books and Posada will only have 1 years left.  Would it really shock anyone if Jeter got a Posada type contract?  They will live with Jeter at SS for the remaining 3 or at most 4 years just like they are living with Posada a C right now (Posada has sucked defensively for years.  I don’t care what the stats say).

I’m pretty sure Mike Aviles was the best SS in the AL last year.

Don’t know if there is a correlation or not but Jeter’s last really good year was 2006 when he got to camp early and played in the WBC tourney.  The WBC is a bit of a hurry up you might say to playing meaningful baseball.  That may make him more ready sooner as the regular season begins. He’s scheduled to do it again and I think that while there’s a gamble as to injury, the extra work plus the remainder of the spring games may get him off to a good start in April. I think that played a part in his wire to wire performance in 2006. He is older though and that may be an offset.

I think the fears that many of you anticipate could happen. I would like to see Jeter end his Yankee career with the kind of grace that Joe Dimaggio displayed and retire sooner than later and leave on good terms with the team and fans and public.
If he should rebound and have a great year in 2009 the team might be ahead to open up a negotiated short term extension as some of you have suggested. The point has been made well that he is most valuable offensively as a shortstop and if you move him to the outfield (which may be necessary) he lacks the power in particular you would like to get from a corner.

i agree that it is too early to be worrying about this.

i also agree that Jeter was much better in 2008 than in 2007.

but…i am less optimistic that he won’t give back all of that improvement and more by 2011. he’ll be 37.

but for 2009, if Jeter plays like he did last year and hits like he did down the stretch, this team is going to score some runs.  for now, that’s all that matters.

Mike K, I agree that anything could happen.  But I think the Jeter-remains-a not-embarrassing-major-leaguer-but-hardly-an-elite-performer scenario is far more plausible than any other.

And I agree with yup and villainx that winning a ring or 2 could change the atmospherics on the whole thing.

Jeter is going to be a Yankee until he retires.

Is that what you think or is that what you hope?

I think you’re probably right.  The question is: what will be the premium paid for getting the 3000th hit, the continuity, the purity of the Jeter-will-die-in-pinstripes mythology?  Because I can’t think of a single 37-38-39 year-old shortstop in recent years who’s deserved the kind of payday we’re talking about.

Is that what you think or is that what you hope?

Both.  I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen but I won’t hide the fact that I’d be extremely disappointed if that happened as well. 

I lived in Baltimore at the time of Ripken’s record breaking game as well his record ending game and retirement.  Those were some very shaky Ripken seasons but never in a million years could I see the O’s and Ripken parting ways. 

Jeter is like the Cal Ripken of the Yankees.

Because I can’t think of a single 37-38-39 year-old shortstop in recent years who’s deserved the kind of payday we’re talking about.

None of those players were Jeter on the Yankees.  I don’t think Bernie or Posada deserved the patience they got/are getting.  That kind of loyalty is something you only show once in a generation and that player of this Yankees generation is no question Jeter.

I get the point of it being “too early to worry about this”, but let’s drag that out to it’s natural conclusion…

it’s also “too pointles” for a handful of yankee fan to discuss ANYTHING regarding possible Yankee transactions.  fans’ opinions count next to zero in terms of decision making, and when they do, it’s more likely to be the types of fans who call into sports radio.

Thinking about what the Yankees are going to do in 2011 is just as “useful” as thinking about what they are doing this offseason.  I.e. not “useful” at all.  But it’s entertaining, and a decent intellectual exercise to some degree.

OK, I can buy all that.  I still can’t help but wonder: do you give him a blank check?  Knowing that he’s a once-in-a-generation player, does Jeter highjack them for an absurd contract that precludes other moves the team needs to make? 

I was thinking of the Ripken analogy as well.  I live in DC area, so I remember it all.  Of course, they had to have separate rules for Ripken to some degree, but it was a little maddening to see Cal get adoration far beyond what he deserved based on his on-field performance (a lifetime .787 OPS = first ballot HOFer?). 

And I think you could make a convincing argument that fealty paid to Cal and the streak became something of a distraction and a greater priority than the success of the franchise.

I guess I’m surprised at my inability to get a rise out of this crew on the subject of overpaying Jeter   If nothing else, this is a place that can be counted on for dispassionate empiricism when it comes to player evaluation and smug dismissal of things like team chemistry, leadership, a good clubhouse guy, etc.

ugh, i just had a flashback of the MSM claiming that Torre’s contract was “insulting”.  Paycuts are insulting, even when they involve talent that underperforms or is decreasing b/c of age.  greeaaaatt.

Exactly.  Jeter = Torre to the nth power.  We’re headed for that kind of PR nightmare.

All of the potential pitfalls and snags (on both sides) of Jeter reaching FA leads me to believe that the Yanks and Jeter will negotiate an extension before Jeter reaches free agency.

Maybe in a year or two Jeter will be ready to move off of SS and go to the OF, allowing him to focus on 3,000 hits and Cooperstown enshrinement.  Or maybe he’s intent on staying at the SS position as long as he can, fielding prowess be damned.  It comes down to Jeter’s character and mindset, two things that the public really doesn’t know too much about. 

I’m guessing he’ll sign a five year extension.

Jeter is like the Cal Ripken of the Yankees.

Without the move to third base.

None of those players were Jeter on the Yankees.  I don’t think Bernie or Posada deserved the patience they got/are getting.  That kind of loyalty is something you only show once in a generation and that player of this Yankees generation is no question Jeter.

I’m not attacking you in any way, but I don’t understand the whole loyalty tangent.  I can see the whole “home team discount” scenario, but I think that has less to do with loyalty then some might expect.

Why should either side (player or team) show any sort of loyalty in what is essentially a high risk/reward business environment?  The players want to make money and win (not necessarily in that order) - so do the owners.  The problem is in most cases, the making money part is a zero sum game: the more the players make, the less the owners make.

Put it another way: when has Jeter showed loyalty?  When he signed, at the time, one of the biggest contracts in the league?

The true test of loyalty is if Jeter becomes a free agent and another team offers him more money/years/perks then the Yanks.  Do you think he’ll turn it down?  I don’t.  So why should the Yanks bend over backwards to keep him at all costs - especially if the contract and his performance will end up hurting the team in the long run?

Why should either side (player or team) show any sort of loyalty in what is essentially a high risk/reward business environment?

The Yankees should show loyalty to keep a once in a generation Yankee hero like Jeter in pinstripes.  Why should the Yankees show loyalty?  Because of the fans, not Jeter.  After all we are the ones who pay the bills. 

It’s also good from a business standpoint.  Jeter is the Joe D. of our generation.  Joe D. even though he’s been retired for 50 years and has even been dead for quite a few still makes the Yankees a ton of money so it does make sense from a business standpoint as well.

Current on the field success isn’t the only think that makes the Yankees money.

I’m pretty sure Mike Aviles was the best SS in the AL last year.

The guy played 90 games at SS last year. That might qualify in your fantasy league, but not in real life.

As long as Jeter can hit well, it’s most likely that the Yanks would keep him.  I’m basing this on the last few years: Posada and Mariano were retained because they could still play, while Bernie had lost a lot.

Jeter might have to move to the outfield; i think that’ll be the test of Jeter’s loyalty.

The true test of loyalty is if Jeter becomes a free agent and another team offers him more money/years/perks then the Yanks.  Do you think he’ll turn it down?  I don’t.

It really depends on how much more is being offered. 
I think Jeter would take a Yankee offer over, say, an offer from Seattle if the Mariners offered more.  I doubt a competing team’s offer would be ridiculously better than a reasonable offer from the Yankees in any event.
Can you really see Jeter giving up the New York lifestyle to play in Milwaukee?  Just for more money?

Current on the field success isn’t the only think that makes the Yankees money.

Jeter is still the go to guy for all the little crap the Yankees need to do for PR and (I would guess) sponsor crap. He’s at the charity functions, ribbon cuttings, etc. That might not seem like a lot, but when you are in the business of luring multi million dollar sponsors and business partners and seducing city officials, that sort of thing goes a long way. Not enough to pay him an additional $20 mil for 5 years, but enough to make him more valuable to the Yanks than to some other team. As he approaches 3,000 hits, that goes even crazier.

I read this a couple days ago and was a bit turned off at Klapisch need to throw in a few backhanded remarks about A-Rod.

He also added this bit of incorrect information (talking about A-Rod taking over for Jeter):

“That scenario quickly turned to vapor, as Rodriguez has staggered through a series of postseason failures, and the Yankees have yet to win a championship, or even get out of the first round, on his watch.”

DiMaggio retired at 36. I can totally see Jeter calling it quits around 39.

Mike K, I agree that anything could happen.  But I think the Jeter-remains-a not-embarrassing-major-leaguer-but-hardly-an-elite-performer scenario is far more plausible than any other.

Well, but SS after 35 also typically don’t age well, so Jeter could actually plummet as a player.  Jeter to me seems a proud person, and I don’t know if he would even WANT to go out and play if he’s putting up a BA of .260 (Jeter would probably look at that more than OPS), with 8 or less HR and no steals.  Also, Jeter could very well decide after next year that he only wants to play 2 more years (through 2011) and ask for a one year extension.

I.e. not “useful” at all.  But it’s entertaining, and a decent intellectual exercise to some degree.

I don’t know.  While true that there isn’t any *likely* effect - hey, we know that Cashman reads some Yankees blogs, so maybe they have some effect - we’re at least dealing with more known facts.  E.g. we know how Tex did the last couple of years, we have an idea what the market is for him, what the Yankees’ payroll is, etc.  The debates are more for setting our expectations of happiness, and I think we sometimes effect what other fans expecations are (I know mine of changed thanks to this site). 

Debating Jeter in 2011…how are we going to set expectations for happiness?  If we somehow decide that the 3/35 for Jeter is fair, and Jeter pulls another miracle and has a career year in 2010 (say offensively AND defensively), are we suddenly going to be unhappy with a 4/80 contract?  I know that’s unlikely, but debating Jeter two years out just doesn’t make sense.  Now, if you were arguing that the Yankees should be looking to improve SS depth in the minors so they HAD a replacement for Jeter in 2011, I’d be right there with you.

Oh, and Jeter, Cabrera, and Peralta were the top three SS in the AL, by Value Wins last year, all within 1 run.  Jeter gets a slight nod with “value” by $300K as the most valuable, so I guess there’s some decimal places they’re not showing.

Jeter to me seems a proud person, and I don’t know if he would even WANT to go out and play if he’s putting up a BA of .260

I worry about precisely the opposite, that he’s stubborn enough not to realize the ways in which his game has deteriorated.  That certainly seems to be his approach to nagging injuries—I can still do it, put me in coach, I’m ready to play.

“I don’t think Bernie or Posada deserved the patience they got/are getting.”

I don’t get this re Posada.

I see Ripken holds the ML record for GIDP at 350.

I think Jeter would take a Yankee offer over, say, an offer from Seattle if the Mariners offered more.  I doubt a competing team’s offer would be ridiculously better than a reasonable offer from the Yankees in any event.
Can you really see Jeter giving up the New York lifestyle to play in Milwaukee?  Just for more money?

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Even if what you’re saying is probably true, he’s not turing down the offer because of loyalty to the Yankees.  He’s turning it down for more selfish reasons.  And don’t get me wrong.  There’s nothing wrong with that.

The Yankees should show loyalty to keep a once in a generation Yankee hero like Jeter in pinstripes.  Why should the Yankees show loyalty?  Because of the fans, not Jeter.  After all we are the ones who pay the bills.

Hero?  Firefighters are heroes.  Soldiers are heroes.  Multi-million dollar baseball players?  Not in my book.  And once-in-a-generation?  If any player on the Yanks fits that bill, it’s Mo.  Not Jeter.

I think if Jeter left for greener pastures, say the Dodgers knocked his socks off, most Yankees fans wouldn’t miss him.  If the Jeter-free Yanks won a WS, or even performed well, they’d move on, just like Jeter.

If we somehow decide that the 3/35 for Jeter is fair, and Jeter pulls another miracle and has a career year in 2010 (say offensively AND defensively), are we suddenly going to be unhappy with a 4/80 contract?

On some level, yes, I would be quite unhappy.  And yet I would know in some cosmic sense it was the right thing to do for all kinds of reasons having more to do with the civic life of New York than sabermetric spreadsheets.

That’s my problem with your #12 above—I really don’t envision any smooth sailing scenarios.  No matter what level his performance over the next 2 seasons, we have every reason to believe Jeter will want some kind of franchise player bonus.  Whether that means we’re paying 4/80 for a guy coming off a career year, or 2/20 for a guy who’s clearly cooked…it’s going to be a bullet-biter.

I worry about precisely the opposite, that he’s stubborn enough not to realize the ways in which his game has deteriorated.  That certainly seems to be his approach to nagging injuries—I can still do it, put me in coach, I’m ready to play.

It’s really tough to tell.  Is he being stubborn with his injuries, or is he really good at understanding when he’s able to give 80% on a given day?  80% of Jeter is still better than anything else the Yanks could throw out there most years.  I don’t think he’s done anything like Damon a couple of years ago where it was pretty clear to everyone except Damon and Torre that Damon was hurting the team by playing…

But anyway, the stubborn part would more have to do with if he feels he has to be a high-paid starter even if he doesn’t deserve it.  Stars such as Tim Raines and Bernie Williams played well past them deserving high-paying contract, but both also accepted in later seasons part time status (and part-time contracts).

Tex can play 3B, so move him there.  Move ARod to SS and Jeter to 1B.

That’s my problem with your #12 above—I really don’t envision any smooth sailing scenarios.

I guess my only point is we - or at least I - don’t have enough information to make an informed opinion about a hypothetical contract in a hypothetical context.  But if I’m the only one worried about that, I’ll shut up about it (after this post anyway).

I think if Jeter left for greener pastures, say the Dodgers knocked his socks off, most Yankees fans wouldn’t miss him.  If the Jeter-free Yanks won a WS, or even performed well, they’d move on, just like Jeter.

I’m sure most Yankees’ fans *would* miss him.  Miss him enough that they’ll boo his replacement?  Depends on how that replacement is playing, how the team is playing, etc.  Heck, ARod still gets compared to Scott Brosious…

I don’t get this re Posada.

Yeah, Posada had a career year, and then blew out his shoulder the first week of the season.  Should we dump him now because he got hurt?  And it’s not like potential All Star catchers are growing on trees or anything…

Tex can play 3B, so move him there.  Move ARod to SS and Jeter to 1B.

I assume this was said in jest.

I think maybe he meant they shouldn’t have given him the big payday for his decline years.  “Patience” perhaps was the wrong word.

#49 = a reference to the “I don’t get this re. Posada” comment on the original “I don’t think Bernie or Posada deserved the patience they got/are getting.” in #23.

I find Jeter bunting all the time on his own to be “selfish”.  I think he loves being known as the guy who will do the little things and make the “sacrifice”.  If bunting was considered selfish (in some bizarro world), he’d do it less (I think.  obviously, i have no idea what i’m talking about).

I agree with you Kronic and also I think that Jeter cares too much about his batting avg. and by bunting he’s not afecting it.

Jeter’s bunting annoys me to no end, but i don’t think i am prepared to declare it a result of some deep seated character flaw.

i just think he does it the same reason manager’s often call for a bunt: he thinks it’s a smart play to move the runner over.

hey, if you had the choice of going out with a supermodel or sitting home to study a Run-Expectancy Matrix, you might not know that bunting isn’t always the best play either…

i just think he does it the same reason manager’s often call for a bunt: he thinks it’s a smart play to move the runner over.

Yeah, I know for YEARS Torre would talk about how important that was, and how good Jeter was at it.  So if the manager tells you that you’re good at something, and that it’s important to winning…also, I think there are times when he is legitimately trying to bunt for a base-hit.  He’s not beating those out as much any more, so it looks like a sac-attempt.

But yeah, first week of Spring Training I would hope Girardi would sit Jeter down and explain to him that if Girardi *wants* Jeter to bunt, he’ll call for it.

Jeter’s bunting annoys me to no end, but i don’t think i am prepared to declare it a result of some deep seated character flaw.

He only bunted 7 times last year. He has bunted 5 or fewer times in 6 of the last 10 years and he has only exceeded 8 bunts once in his career. It’s probably even something close to the sabermetrically right thing to do half those times he laid down a bunt. What are we getting all worked up about? If he had homered in every one of those at bats he probably is not worth much more than one extra win a year. Bunting once every 3 weeks is not something to get upset about.

I think.  obviously, i have no idea what i’m talking about.

No comment.

And JJ Hardy has a career OPS of .775. Jeter has hit that poorly only once in his entire career. Granted, it was last year, so I am not saying that he isn’t going to decline a bit more. I’m just saying Hardy is no lock to be producing big time in 3 or 4 years either.

jeter’s bunting is annoying b/c for a while he was often doing it in the first inning.  Damon would get on, Jeter would bunt.  in the first inning with no one out.

also, i don’t think looking at the “Sacrifice hits” column tells you all the times he’s bunted.  a bunt is not always scored as a sacrifice.

I see Ripken holds the ML record for GIDP at 350.

That explains Jeter last year.

He only bunted 7 times last year. He has bunted 5 or fewer times in 6 of the last 10 years and he has only exceeded 8 bunts once in his career.

That can’t be true.

Ah, I got it. He attempts to bunt, but after one/two strikes he goes back to swinging away. It’s cause he failed in his bunt attempt that makes it only 7 bunts. And also maybe why he is batting in bad counts. If he executed all the time, he probably would have 101 SHs.

Pooma assertion:  Jeter sometimes/often attempts/shows a bunt early in the count, bunts foul or pulls back and takes a strike, is behind in count, has an ineffective AB.

And JJ Hardy has a career OPS of .775. Jeter has hit that poorly only once in his entire career.

sure, but Hardy is 25 years old.

his OPS numbers look like this:
age 22: .711
age 23: .693
age 24: .786
age 25: .821

Hardy is also a plus defensive SS. 

of course Hardy is not a lock to be producing in 2011, but since we are talking about this situation 2 years before a decision has to be made, all we have is what we know at the moment.

and if i had to chose TODAY who i’d rather have at SS on opening day 2011, i would have to choose JJ Hardy. 

you’re right, i can’t guarantee anything.  but i think it’s highly likely that a 28 year old Hardy will outperform the 37 year old Jeter, offense + defense.

also, i don’t think looking at the “Sacrifice hits” column tells you all the times he’s bunted.  a bunt is not always scored as a sacrifice.

Yeah, this a little too pooma for my taste. I don’t have a problem with Jeter bunting for a hit (which wouldn’t count as a sacrifice). He hits more groundballs than anyone, so no big deal on that end—it avoids the DP and he doesn’t bunt for hits with runners in scoring position, so it is not a bad play. If he doesn’t get a hit out of it it still can move the runner over.

When he really IS trying to sacrifice, he pretty much always gets the bunt down. John Dewan did a think about bunters once and Jeter had the highest completion rate for sacrifice bunts of anyone in the league over a span of many years. So there aren’t many times when he really is just trying to move the runner over and he doesn’t get it done.

As for how many times he pulls back a bunt or bunts one foul and starts off behind in the count—Jeter actually batted pretty well after starting with an 0-1 count and he had 48 fewer at bats than Hardy in those situations and 70 fewer at bats than Reyes, just to give a couple of examples. So for whatever reason those guys are ending up in a bad count substantially more than Jeter is, so this point about bad at bats just seems really arbitrary and probably just wrong.

Jeter does, it’s true, often fake a bunt for a hit, pull it back to take a ball (or a strike), then swing away the rest of the at bat. What is the problem with that? No harm done, maybe the 3rd basemen has to play in a little, maybe that gets him two or three hits a year. Maybe not. But it can’t really be costing him more than that many hits a year either.

Finally, the guy OPSed .980 when he did put the ball in play on the first pitch, so whatever his strategy for dealing with the first pitch, it works out just fine. And I bet some of those are probably bunt base hits (maybe that is POOMA, too)

Hero?  Firefighters are heroes.  Soldiers are heroes.  Multi-million dollar baseball players?  Not in my book.  And once-in-a-generation?  If any player on the Yanks fits that bill, it’s Mo.  Not Jeter.

I said Yankee hero, not hero. 

And I love Mo as much as anyone but don’t get me started on how unbelievably overrated closers are in today’s game.  He’s no Jeter in terms of career value. 

Yeah, Posada had a career year, and then blew out his shoulder the first week of the season.  Should we dump him now because he got hurt?  And it’s not like potential All Star catchers are growing on trees or anything…

Forget the injury.  Rewind the clock a year.  A catcher on the wrong side of 35 doesn’t deserve a contract like that.  Catchers in general miss a lot of time because they are catchers but giving a 36 year old catcher 4 years at the highest AAV for a catcher ever is hard to defend.  They did it because they though A-Rod was gone at the time. 

What happened this year was more of an “I told you so” than something completely unpredictable.

Is this really worth debating now? I do not think is going to get as ugly as some of you might suggest. Jeter is not going to get moved from SS until he blows some kind of clinching play. If he puts up two remotely representative seasons at short he will remain there at the start of a new contract.

Predicting his contract 2 years from now is an exercise in futility given the current economic volatility, but I would definitely think he would get some kind of sweetheart deal with the Yanks.

and if i had to chose TODAY who i’d rather have at SS on opening day 2011, i would have to choose JJ Hardy.

Well, he has out OPSed Hardy by a lot in 3 of 4 years, and his OPS over that period is 100 point higher than Hardy’s, even including last year. Sure, Hardy is a plus defender, but not enough to make up for that.

Sure, two years from now, maybe Hardy is as good as he was in 2008 and Jeter is as bad as he was. I’ll certainly admit it if that is the case. But Jeter was written off in 2002, too, and then he went 8 years of being the best SS in baseball. I’ll give him one more shot, especially since he worked some on his defense.

Proud or not, if Jeter plays his hand and eventually goes to the market, what team will sign a singles hitter to a better contract than what he’ll be offered by the Yanks. A 38 year old who is slowing and losing power by the year is not the guy you hand $15 million/year to. If Jeter is selfish at that point I would be shocked if he generated a bunch of offers elsewhere. He is simply going to have to weigh a lot of things. No. 1 is his career image will be heavily reduced if he does a Favre instead of a Dimaggio. I sort of think he will listen to his Dad or Torre and do the smarter thing.

I think it’s funny we don’t think the Yankees have enough money to give jeter $5M/year more than he is worth for 3 years.  The Yankees can eat that money and not blink.

I think I have a sense memory of being incensed while seeing a slumping Jeter trying to bunt his way into form and wasting ABs.  Maybe that comprised only a short period but primed me or us to be extra sensitive.

I think it’s funny that Jeter’s doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Is there any indication that he would not do what is best for the team, besides his love of money?

Re: 66 and 67.  It’s not a slumping Jeter trying to bunt that has irked me.  It’s a .320-hitting Jeter, sometimes hitting in front of a slumping Abreu/O’Niell/Giambi, trying to bunt, which has made me throw up my hands in exasperation.  I don’t accuse him of selfishness; I just wish he knew that he is indeed more valuable swinging away in most situations.

I think it’s funny that Jeter’s doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Is there any indication that he would not do what is best for the team, besides his love of money?

Yes, bunting or attempting to bunt early on in games. Whatever study done whenever years ago does not reflect that he does attempt a lot of bunts.  And as it pertain to when it is done in the first freakin inning of games, it stinks.

You want proof, fine, I’m going to go check all the game chatters from this past season.

I’m just kidding about the checking the game chatter thing. It probably is an underutilized resource for something. Though I think the time and expensive to remove all the nicknames, cursing, screaming, Mo worship, global warming talk would not make it cost effective.

Can the Yankees afford to pay Jeter FMV? I mean that in the opposite way it sounds, namely can the Yankee brand survive if they pay their captain anything less than the highest salary of any shortstop? Seems like it would send the wrong message.

“Sure, two years from now, maybe Hardy is as good as he was in 2008 and Jeter is as bad as he was.”

Surely any discussion should start from the expectation that Hardy will be better in two years plus.  And Fangraphs had him at 5.5 Value Wins last year, more than Jeter (and more than Jeter has put up for years excepting 2006).  I’d probably take Hardy today straight up, externalities aside.

I agree with you Kronic and also I think that Jeter cares too much about his batting avg. and by bunting he’s not afecting it.

To be honest, I can’t remember Jeter sacrificing all that much.  I recall him trying to sneak in a few for hits which would obviously affect his .avg should he fail.

—-Can the Yankees afford to pay Jeter FMV? I mean that in the opposite way it sounds, namely can the Yankee brand survive if they pay their captain anything less than the highest salary of any shortstop? Seems like it would send the wrong message.—-

That’s an interesting question.  You could almost argue, in a sense, that Jeter’s next contract will be something other than just “payroll for players”.  He’s a symbol, a brand name, etc etc.  The yankees could (should?) be willing to over pay for him so they can keep that image in tact. 

You look at the Pettitte situation, and it’s almost like the Yankees offering only 10 million has opened people’s eyes to his declining talent.  As soon as some lower numbers start getting bounced around regarding Jeter, people might also wake up to the fact that he’s not the end-all-be-all of sports.  Part of Jeter’s salary is straight up “PR”.

I know I’ve heard someone who would know (can’t remember, maybe Torre?) say that Jeter shows bunt when he can’t get a good read on the pitcher. Since he knows more about hitting than anyone here, I have to imagine he knows what he’s doing.

Tony Womack knows more etc.  Etc.

I would bet good money that Tony Womack knows more about reading a pitcher than rilkefan.

So jeter also knows more about the value of bunting than we do?  what with us being in our parents’ basements and all.

No- he knows more about reading a pitcher from the batter’s box than we do. Perhaps I should have mentioned the actual physical act of hitting a baseball, and what goes into it. This is all assuming, of course, that the reason I gave for his bunting is true. If he does it because he thinks it’s good strategy, he’s just as wrong as Joe Morgan, etc.

Um, is it just me, or was waswatching.com hacked by a terrorist organization?

Holy Allah!

Here’s what comes up if you search waswatching.com:

Hacked By .:: F3sH4Ck3rs T34M ::. (== SoldierOfAllah Was Here ==)

!F3sH4ck3rs T34M! Your WebSite Has Been Defaced BY Soldiers , We Are Not Sorry. بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم. في هذه الذكرى الحزينة .. هناك ...

Back to baseball…

The yankees could (should?) be willing to over pay for him so they can keep that image in tact. 

Only on the Yankees, but yes, I think this is highly possible.

So jeter also knows more about the value of bunting than we do?

We have already been through this. I cited the numbers he does not sacrifice bunt that much, at least not since 2004.  Most of the “bunts” you are talking about are attempts to bunt for a hit. There is NOTHING wrong with bunting for a hit. Ichiro one year bat well over .400 when he got a bunt in play. Most fast players bat higher than their regular BA when they get a bunt down. It’s a good play if you are good at it. You are mixing up sacrifice bunting (which is statistically likely to decrease the chance to score runs in the inning) and bunting for a hit (which creates baserunners and doesn’t sacrifice an out if you get it done. Sorry to be obvious with the definitions, but it seems some of you guys are mixing them up or thinking the two plays have the same sabermetric value.

He only sacrifices 4-8 times a year, and gets most of these down. Some of those are situations that actually warrant a bunt (down by one run, nobody out, mediocre runner at first, bottom of the 9th). Some are actually failed attempts to bunt for a hit that lead to a runner moving up a base, so it gets called a sacrifice. The actual number of true sacrifices is not more than 7 times a year in any of the last 4 years. I promise.

If someone bunted for hits at that rate they’d have an ops of 800 with minimal rbis and pitches per at bat. And that’s assuming 100% success. Pass

of course, my entire premise was based on the assumption that Hardy was going to be a FA the same offseason Jeter’s contract expires.

that might be, and is probably, an incorrect assumption on my part. 

i saw that he’s been in the league for 4 years and assumed he has 2 more to go, but i really don’t know how much service time he actually has.

so, on that note, hope everyone has a Happy New Year.  and be careful on the roads.

I agree with everything in post #84.

If someone bunted for hits at that rate they’d have an ops of 800 with minimal rbis and pitches per at bat. And that’s assuming 100% success. Pass

Wha? No one is arguing that anyone should bunt every time, but way to reduce the argument to the point of absurdity. Leading off an inning or when no one on base it is not a bad play if you aren’t a big power hitter. Obviously, unless you are Willie Taveras you don’t bunt with a runner in scoring position or if there are two outs and the pitcher is coming up or whatever. Taveras was 37 for 52 when bunting for a hit in 2007, by the way. And Jeter sees plenty of pitches, so he obviously does not resemble the theoretical abnormality you are talking about.

And regardless, we are talking about whether or not Jeter’s alleged addiction to bunting substantially impacts his value, and nothing you are saying has anything to do with that.

—-There is NOTHING wrong with bunting for a hit. Ichiro one year bat well over .400 when he got a bunt in play. Most fast players bat higher than their regular BA when they get a bunt down. It’s a good play if you are good at it.—-

This is the statement that I was responding.  First of all, Ichiro is in a whole different league than jeter when it comes to speed (although, interestingly, the knock on Ichiro is that he could be more valuable if he sacrificed his average to increase his power).  Second, you are only looking at his average on balls he put in play.  Third (connected to second), you aren’t accounting for any of the negatives that come with failing to successfully put the ball in play (behind in the count, less pitches per at bat, etc etc). 

And here’s the most glaring problem:

—-Leading off an inning or when no one on base it is not a bad play if you aren’t a big power hitter.—-

My point isn’t that “Jeter shouldn’t bunt, b/c bunting is bad”.  My main point is that “Jeter shouldn’t bunt b/c he’s a very good hitter”.  He has a career on base percentage of .387.  Even when the goal is to bunt for a hit, I seriously doubt he is successful at a .387 rate.  And even if he was, he’s eliminating any chance of extra bases in that bat.  Derek Jeter is too good a hitter to bunt in almost every single situation. 

Sacrifice bunts decrease the chances of scoring generally…more so with a good hitter like Jeter up.

Bunting for a hit (in Jeter’s case) probably decreases the chance he’ll get on base and definitely decreases his OPS and decreases the number of pitches he’ll see in at bat and probably leads to falling behind in the count.

correction:  i shouldn’t say that you aren’t accounting for those things.  you address a lot of those issues in post #60 (and you do it well).  I mean to say that the numbers we have (so far) don’t really weigh all those pros and cons together to give us an overall context as to whether it’s “smart” for Jeter to attempt to bunt (whether it be for a hit, sacrifice, etc)

I think it is pretty clear that Jeter bunts too much.  There are definitely times where he should *not* bunt and does.  However, I also think it is clear that there are times when it is just fine for Jeter to bunt.  Heck, I think there are times when it is okay for ARod to bunt.  And no, I’m not talking about “game situation”, I’m talking about player situation.

E.g. Jeter is the one in the batter’s box.  To succeed, he has to feel comfortable.  What if he’s not?  Because he doesn’t feel comfortable against the pitcher, because at that moment he’s not seeing the ball well (e.g. position of the sun, etc), because of a very minor injury the last inning (jammed thumb, etc)?

I guess from a strategic decision, JETER has to decide what is going to help the team the most to win, and how he can best contribute to that.  And no, he’s not always going to be right.  But just because he’s choosing to bunt doesn’t mean he’s making the wrong choice, and CERTAINLY is not indicative of him being selfish; I know not everyone is arguing that, but some are.

Selfish might be too strong a word, but Jeter is clearly very aware of his image.  He never lets his guard down.  He also talks in cliches.  He referred to his manager as “Mr. Torre”. 

I think the way he approaches his at bats is exactly how he approaches his entire game.  He’s fundamentally sound, but sometimes chooses to be TOO perfect.  His bunting is also like how he’ll choose to inside out pitches for singles instead of trying to drive the ball.  His whole game gives the appearance of “I’m putting the team first over personal success”. 

I’m not saying it’s all an act, per se.  But I think he’s “aware” of all of these things.  Maybe he’s even being genuine about it and actually thinks that’s best for the team.

You can’t seriously believe that hitting the ball the other way because he’s good at it is just him being image-conscious. As a fan I’m glad he does it because it boosts his OBP, as opposed to “driving the ball” and popping out to LF. Let the guys with real power who hit right behind him slug away.

Re bunting = image, others have covered that pretty thoroughly.

Re “Mr. Torre,” it could just be you know, respect. Or habit. He doesn’t call Girardi “Mr. Girardi.”

The man is a no doubt first ballot hall of famer.  I can’t believe people are this upset about his bunting habits.  It’s not as simple as saying he is a career .845 OPS hitter and if he bunts at an .800 OPS rate (complete POOMA number by the way) that he is hurting the team.  As someone who played baseball all the way through college as a prototypical #2 hitter I can tell you there are plenty of reason why players choose to bunt beyond “they are in a slump” that wouldn’t be obvious to anyone but the player.  Maybe he’s not in a slump but just not seeing the ball well that day.  Maybe he’s not in a slump but he is having a hard time getting a good read on that particular pitcher.  Maybe he’s not in a slump but the left side of the infield is cheating back and he’s doing it to keep them honest. 

The man has the 3rd highest BABIP of anyone in the history of baseball.  I’ll trust him to decide the best way for him to put the ball in play in any particular AB.

Out of the 4 instances mentioned below, 3 occurred in the 1st inning.  I think, 2 ended in strikeouts. And, I think, 2 ended up being credited as SHs.

3. Posted at 6:12:36 pm on Thursday, August 21, 2008 by sam
So, Jeter is supremely confident that the only way he can do something productive for this team is by bunting in the first inning to maximize the chance of an out.

38. Posted at 7:47:37 pm on Friday, August 15, 2008 by yankeemonkey
Jeter bunt = gun to the face.

41. Posted at 4:38:25 pm on Saturday, August 9, 2008 by salajander
Bunt.

24. Posted at 12:26:28 pm on Sunday, August 3, 2008 by rilkefan
Cap’n Waste-An-Out shows up instead.

Hmm, the quoted 24 above doesn’t sound like me, but the web doesn’t lie.  It was in response to ym‘s “Captain GIDP in 3…2…” though.

I think arguing intentionality is unproductive. In my view Jeter’s responses to the shift-to-third question (unless I’ve forgotten him saying “Alex is the better fielder but no one has asked me to move - which of course I’d do if I was asked”) and his relative handling of A-Rod and Giambi problems are better evidence than anything on-field, but that still involves a majority of mind-reading.

Maybe he’s not in a slump but the left side of the infield is cheating back and he’s doing it to keep them honest.

some small amount of random bunting might actual be optimal (assuming you are good enough at it), since it will affect the defensive positioning charts used against you. (that’s the video game/mother’s basement perspective.)

my entire objection to Jeter bunting is when he does it in the first inning.

when this whole thing started, this is what i assumed everyone was referring to.

it has happened enough that i can remember Michael Kay ranting about it on several occasions.  which actually makes me reconsider my position….

my entire objection to Jeter bunting is when he does it in the first inning.

when this whole thing started, this is what i assumed everyone was referring to.

Yup, me too.

Rilkefan, checking the box score, i think ym was assuming the GIDP, but Jeter opted for laying down the bunt instead. So, you may be right, but you could also have been responding the what Jeter did.  And anyway, I Jeter is teh greatest, except when he bunts in the early innings. =P

my entire objection to Jeter bunting is when he does it in the first inning.

Personally, I’ll take it on a case-by-case basis.  E.g. if the 3B is playing like Sheffield is in the box, and Jeter bunts for a hit, I’m not going to complain.  Likewise, if Damon just had a 14 pitch AB and walked, I’m thinking I don’t want to see Jeter bunt.  Jeter bunts too much, but that doesn’t mean every bunt - even in the first inning - is a bad thing.