Thursday, July 24, 2008

Rumored Trade Targets and Their Projected Value

In the last post, yup asked:

SG, how about a projection of some of the pitchers on the rumor mill? say, Washburn, Arroyo, Lowe, Burnett vs. Ponson/Rasner? how many wins would replacing Ponson vs. Washburn get you? just an idea. thanks!

I like requests because then i don't have to think about what to write myself, so here we go.

Pitcher	IP	IP/GS	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRAA	FRAR
Lowe,Derek	74	6.2	77	32	7	19	44	3.90	4.01	1.6	8.4	0.7	7.4
Burnett,A.J.	81	6.7	77	37	8	31	68	4.13	3.96	-0.2	7.1	1.3	8.7
Arroyo,Bronson	74	6.2	82	38	10	23	48	4.62	4.59	-4.3	2.5	-4.0	2.7
Washburn,Jarrod	69	5.8	78	36	9	21	36	4.70	4.77	-4.6	1.7	-5.1	1.2
Rasner,Darrell	66	5.5	78	36	8	17	35	4.91	4.49	-5.9	0.1	-2.8	3.2
Ponson,Sidney	65	5.4	78	39	11	26	41	5.44	5.36	-9.6	-3.7	-9.0	-3.1

FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 x HR + 3 x (BB + HBP) - 2 x SO) / IP + 3.2. This regresses BABIP to league average for everyone by focusing on the things a pitcher has direct control over.
RSAA: Runs saved above average. Park-adjusted league average relief RA (R/IP*9) - Individual relief RA divided by 9 times IP. Includes all runs, not just earned runs.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. I just multiply park-adjusted league average relief RA by 1.2, since AAA is about 80% of the quality of the AL.
FRAA: RSAA using FIP instead of RA.
FRAR: RSAR using FIP instead of RA.

I assumed 12 starts for everyone here, and used their average innings pitched per games started to project their playing time.

I'm not a big Derek Lowe fan, but at least statistically, he'd be a good pickup. A.J. Burnett would also be a good pickup, but odds are getting him from a divisional rival will not be easy, and he is a very good risk to get hurt. Getting Brandon Arroyo or Jarrod Washburn would only be an upgrade of a run or two on Darrell Rasner. Any of the trade targets would be a significant upgrade on Snacks Pontoon's projection, but then again, moving Johnny Damon to the mound might be as well.

The impact of mid-season trades is generally over-stated. No matter how good a player is, it's hard to have a huge impact over a couple of months. That being said, even though I'm not a huge Lowe fan, if he could be acquired relatively cheaply, I'd consider it. He's a free agent after this season and should be a Type-A, so the cost is not Lowe - who you trade for him, it's Lowe -who you trade for him plus Dodger first round pick plus supplemental pick. Burnett, eh. Always had a great arm but if he hasn't put it together yet, when is he going to? J.P. Ricciardi is a horse's ass who shifted his rotation to make sure Roy Halladay pitched against the Yankees. He'd probably ask for the Yankees' top five prospects for Burnett. Arroyo stinks. Washburn is mediocre AND is expensive. If he was only signed through year-end he might be worth a flier, but he's signed for 2009 at around $10 million. The only way picking him up makes sense to me is if Igawa goes in the deal. Then you're at least converting a sunk cost to a cost that could pay dividends.

Seriously, I think this teams needs a bat more than a pitcher. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui are likely out for the year, and they've been replaced by Richie Sexson.

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