In the context of the trade that’s a valid point.  In a vacuum, however, moving Jeter from a more important and more difficult position to a lesser one makes a ton of sense.  I’d imagine he’d still be a below average fielder at 2b, but he’d be hurting the team less.

Unfortunately, baseball never happens in a vacuum. We have to analyze things in context otherwise they don’t apply to anything.

How do you argue in favor of Jeter remaining at SS for another season while simultaneously arguing against his ability to move to a less demanding position?  This is profoundly stupid.

I love when ignorant people come up with ideas that are simply idiotic and when they can’t understand why they’re wrong, start calling people stupid. Jeter has played SS all his life, so it makes all the sense in the world that he’d be better at SS than at another complicated position that he’s never played before. Second base increases the risk of injury, it requires a different set of instincts, a different pivot, different positioning and probably at least a dozen other little nuances you are refusing to consider. It’s not easy for anyone, it will be especially hard for a 34 year old. 34 is really old in terms of middle infielders.

The trade is definitley debatable, especially from a defensive value standpoint, but I wouldn’t characterize Kemp as “not a sure thing” after seeing how awful Cano’s first half was.

So you’re going to base a trade off one half of a single season in a player’s career that clearly didn’t represent his overall value?

The trade looks like something Big Stein would have done in the early 90’s.  Sacrifice the future for now.  You get a SP for two months (when he’s really not even necessary) and trade a very good hitting young second baseman for a very good hitting young outfielder. 
2B is a much harder position to find good to great hitters at than any OF position, as others have stated.  So its really a silly proposal.

Any one that supports trading Cano needs to say who replaces him in the lineup.  Until we determine that, how can we really assess the impact?

My original thought: Kemp at CF, Melky to bench, Gonzalez starts at 2B when Lowe and Pettitte starts (2/5), Betemit starts rest of the time (3/5).

This assumes Damon will be healthy for the rest of the season.

“What makes you think that’s enough time to develop the instincts to play that position everyday? And why do you think teaching an old ballplayer to play a new position when he’s already playing his old position fine is a good idea? “If he can’t play SS, he can’t play second. If he can play SS, it’s a waste of resources to play him at second. At least there are real players available at second this offseason. SS is Furcal and a bunch of backups.”

Are you kidding me?  He can learn how to play 2b, he’s not a dog.

“If he can’t play SS, he can’t play second.”

You’re not using logic here.  He’s not very good at SS but he’s still there.  Moving him to 2b would limit the damage of his limited ability. 

“That’s clearly not true. A-rod has turned into a better hitter now that he can add bulk and is working on what could be his 3rd MVP season in 4 years. Outside of 2007, Jeter has been roughly average defensively at SS, and turned in a an MVP year in 06. This year, he’s been at least average defensively and is probably going to be two wins above average at SS at an age where most SS are retired or utility guys. As it turns out, it was the right move for making the team better”

No, you’re wrong.  Jeter has been a terrible defender for a long time.  A-Rod, at the time of the trade, was very good at SS.  Since then, his offensive numbers compared to what he was doing previously haven’t jumped that much, if at all.

JD: Eh, lets avoid the hospital. I’d rather take

9 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER, 14 K, 0 HBP, W.

I see, you’re worried about a possible suspension.  OK.  We are in a pennant race after all.

No, you’re wrong.  Jeter has been a terrible defender for a long time. A-Rod, at the time of the trade, was very good at SS. Since then, his offensive numbers compared to what he was doing previously haven’t jumped that much, if at all.

It’s very easy to prove that this is wrong, mind numbingly easy but time consuming, so I won’t do it. Check out Baseball reference and ESPN’s ZR pages to see how wrong you are. Coupled with all the other errors in your other statements, it’s pretty easy to see that you don’t know what you’re talking about.

JD: Eh, lets avoid the hospital. I’d rather take

9 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 0 ER, 14 K, 0 HBP, W.

I’d rather see a Steve Nebraska style 9 0 0 0 0 27 on 81 pitches.

Yup, no need to get silly about it. I’ll compromise.

8.2 IP, 0H, 0BB, 0R, 0ER, 13K, 1HBP, W

Hawkins: 0 IP, 0H, 0BB, 0ER, 0K, 1HBP

Hawkins can hit the 2nd guy after Joba gets the warning. Suspending him might make us better anyway.

A perfect game plan.

My original thought: Kemp at CF, Melky to bench, Gonzalez starts at 2B when Lowe and Pettitte starts (2/5), Betemit starts rest of the time (3/5).

We’ll assume for a minute that Gonzalez and Cano would be equal defensively at 2B, and that Kemp and Cano would be equal offensively (not position-adjusted, just in actual contribution).  So you’re taking a defensive downgrade from Melky to Kemp, and an offensive downgrade from Melky to AG.

When Betemit plays, you’re getting a double-dip on the defensive downgrade, and probably not much - if any - of an improvement offensively.  I think overall, even with Lowe, AT BEST you’re coming out even.  So if you’re making the trade for this year, it doesn’t make sense.

“So you’re going to base a trade off one half of a single season in a player’s career that clearly didn’t represent his overall value?”

Obviously not, merely stating that painting Kemp as ‘not a sure thing’ was an overstatement.  They’re both talented young players that may not reach their potential, or in Cano’s case, repeat 06.  To be clear, I absolutely prefer Cano to Kemp. absolutely.

How do you argue in favor of Jeter remaining at SS for another season while simultaneously arguing against his ability to move to a less demanding position?  This is profoundly stupid.

right, except you ignored his entire point about moving from SS to 2B.  he didn’t say it would be hard b/c it’s not less demanding, he said it’s hard b/c it’s a much DIFFERENT position.

The trade looks like something Big Stein would have done in the early 90’s.

no, he would have done the KenT/Lowe trade that was joked about earlier.

“It’s very easy to prove that this is wrong, mind numbingly easy but time consuming, so I won’t do it. Check out Baseball reference and ESPN’s ZR pages to see how wrong you are. Coupled with all the other errors in your other statements, it’s pretty easy to see that you don’t know what you’re talking about.”

Why would you use ZR when you have stats like UZR by MGL?  I’m sure some of the smarter people here can enlighten you.  As of June 9th Jeter was on pace for a -10 season in the field. 

Here take a look at his 2007
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/uzr_2007_complete_list/

Man, is this thread for real?

Trading Cano is basically nuts.  I know on paper you could talk yourself into getting equivalent value by RSAA all that, but for Kemp and Lowe?  Lowe is one of the half dozen moderately talented pitchers that are free agents every year (Silva, Lohse, etc), isn’t he?  Why trade for a guy like that when all you need is money?

It’s likely Cano will never hit .342 again.  But assuming his 39 walks in 2007 weren’t a fluke, then I don’t think 2006 will be his best season.  Throw in some projections with his power increasing as he approaches age 27-30 and isn’t a 900 OPS within the realm of possibility?

Could you play around with the math and prove the same for Kemp.  Sure, but… what’s the point?  Would you trade Albert Pujols for Chase Utley?  Not the best example (Phillies already have Howard at 1st, blahblahlbah) but

Also, re: Jeter, I’m glad someone brought this up—to me, Jeter’s strength has always been that he could play a not-awful shortstop.  He has a career OPS of .840.  That’s amazing at shortstop.  That’s only slightly above average in RF.  There will be a day when he literally is incapable of playing shortstop (and if his play this year is an indication, that day is a lot further off than we think), but why are we rooting for that to happen?

Let’s assume Matsui is the full-time DH next year.  Are we really better off with letting Abreu go and putting Jeter in RF and Alberto Gonzales at SS?

“right, except you ignored his entire point about moving from SS to 2B.  he didn’t say it would be hard b/c it’s not less demanding, he said it’s hard b/c it’s a much DIFFERENT position.”

Given an entire off season and spring training, do you think it could be done?

Not the best example (Phillies already have Howard at 1st, blahblahlbah) but

That sentence should finish, “not the best example, but you’re basically treading water and taking a huge risk your new acquisition doesn’t play as good as the former player.”

no, he would have done the KenT/Lowe trade that was joked about earlier

And thrown in Hughes, just for good measure!

That was the wrong link.  Here’s Jeter’s complete 2007 ranking.  A whopping -27 runs, worst SS in baseball.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/best_and_worst_of_2007_uzr/

Lowe is one of the half dozen moderately talented pitchers that are free agents every year (Silva, Lohse, etc), isn’t he?

no, he’s a clear cut above those guys.

other than that, i agree with everything else you are saying.

Given an entire off season and spring training, do you think it could be done?

i don’t know, but WHY are we doing this again? so we can trade Cano for Kemp?  who is playing SS?

also, not sure why you are posting Jeter’s 2007 UZR’s, everyone here is well aware of his performance last year.

Why would you use ZR when you have stats like UZR by MGL?  I’m sure some of the smarter people here can enlighten you.  As of June 9th Jeter was on pace for a -10 season in the field. 

And you’ll note as well at that time he was next-to-last in ZR in the AL.  He’s improve a lot since then, and that has been pretty well documented on this blog.

also, not sure why you are posting Jeter’s 2007 UZR’s, everyone here is well aware of his performance last year

What he said.  I’m as big of a Jeter booster as there is, and earlier this year when Jeter’s defense was abysmal I was all for moving him off of SS, given how bad he was last year.  This year he’s been about average.  If SG shows up he can tell us how many more plays an average SS sees than an average 2B, to try to figure out how much “better” Jeter would even be there.

“And you’ll note as well at that time he was next-to-last in ZR in the AL.  He’s improve a lot since then, and that has been pretty well documented on this blog.”

He’s improved this year, but he’s still below average.

“i don’t know, but WHY are we doing this again? so we can trade Cano for Kemp?  who is playing SS?”

Yes, the rumored trade was Cano for Kemp and Lowe.

Jeter’s deffense has been better than avg this year. When he is completely healthy he can be an avg SS.
It’s clear that last year he was injured and that was a big reason of why he sucked at deffense, but now that he is healthy and also positioning himself better he is showing that he can stay there for at least this season and the next one.

He’s improved this year, but he’s still below average

Based on what?  He WAS below average on June 9th.  Fact.  He’s improved since then.  Fact.  If you have his UZR from this morning - heck even from last week - showing that he’s still below average, please provide it to back this up.

And even if he is 5 runs below average, how many runs could he possibly save by moving to second in a year?  2?  That’s worth all this other stuff?

Luke- Jeter’s defense has been above average this year, stop saying he is below avg this year. By the way he’s been betetr with the glove than with the stick so far this year.

Moving Jeter to second to improve the team’s deffense is beyond stupid when we have one of the best defenders at second base.
Stop with the idea please

“Luke- Jeter’s defense has been above average this year, stop saying he is below avg this year.”

Where are the stats that illustrate this?

no, he’s a clear cut above those guys.

Checked his stats on BRef, looks like he’s posted an ERA+ between 111 and 124 over the past 4 years.

I revise my stance somewhat—I would like the idea of picking up Lowe.  But trading Cano, whether it’s for Kemp or basically anyone else, is nuts.  He’s a great hitter for his position.  His defense is well above average.  He’s only 25 years old.  He can play in New York. He’s got a good contract that will take him to his age 31 season if the Yankees pick up all the options.  He could easily hit .330/.360/.500 for the rest of the season. 

I’m not saying he’s a future HOFer.  But you only trade guys like that if you’re overwhelmed, don’t you?  Matt Kemp is not overwhelming.  If you have to think, if you have to crunch numbers and compare alternatives and entertain ideas like “oh just move Jeter to second base,” isn’t that a clear indication this is a trade you SHOULDN’T make?

Where are the stats that illustrate this?

Um, these?

ZR isn’t as refined as UZR, but it’s close enough for government work.

isn’t that a clear indication this is a trade you SHOULDN’T make?

Which is why I (jokingly) suggested if they get Martin as well, I’d go for it.

Moving Jeter to second to improve the team’s deffense is beyond stupid when we have one of the best defenders at second base.

Does that make Jeter diving into the third base seats much farther?  Can he run that fast?

“ZR isn’t as refined as UZR, but it’s close enough for government work.”

ZR doesn’t cover out of zone plays, which is precisely Jeter’s problem.  Obviously, I don’t have his UZR beyond June 9, but he was below average then.  Unless you can show me that his ZR has improved since June 9th I’d assume he’s probably within range of -10 than above average.

might i suggest doing the cano trade…moving farnsworth to 2b and having JETER pitch the 8th?

might i suggest doing the cano trade…moving farnsworth to 2b and having JETER pitch the 8th?

Not gonna work.  The team needs a lefty reliever.

Why would you use ZR when you have stats like UZR by MGL?  I’m sure some of the smarter people here can enlighten you.  As of June 9th Jeter was on pace for a -10 season in the field.

UZR is flawed, I’ve read Litchman’s methods, I’m not impressed and I’m not convinced it’s better than normal ZR. The numbers are too wild. +30 here, -50 there. It’s unbelievable. Not only that, there’s an 8 piece essay written by Mike Emeigh, who knows more about defensive stats than everyone here except SG combined, about how UZR underrates Jeter’s accomplishments in the field. ZR is usually right in line with UZR (UZR had Jeter above average in 04 btw, so there goes your Jeter has always been terrible thing), it’s certainly not clearly superior and there are at least a couple other metrics that are just as good. ZR has Jeter above average, Dewan’s +/- which typically is the most negative rating for Jeter, has him at average, and RZR has him as the best SS in the league. Either way, using a two month sample of defensive stats that’s a month and a half old is incredibly stupid. There are a couple equivalent metrics that are freely available and you’re choosing to ignore them because they don’t say what you want them to say.

There has to be a finite chance that Wang, Hughes, Pavano (save your jokes) will be ready in September. Add Horne and McCutchen to that mix.  Is it worth it to pay the price for a Derrik Lowe for what he’ll give us marginally over those guys? It might, but it’s not as simple as saying Lowe > Ponson.

I would do Igawa for Washburn straight up, nothing else.

J might as well IPK and Aceves to that list, they are both on the shortlist for call ups if they perform well, albeit near the end.

ZR doesn’t cover out of zone plays, which is precisely Jeter’s problem.

And UZR doesn’t account for positioning so there’s a real question as to whether a metric should try and account for something like that using an average defensive alignment when many teams, including the Yanks, employ dramatically different defensive alignments than other teams.

  Is it worth it to pay the price for a Derrik Lowe for what he’ll give us marginally over those guys? It might, but it’s not as simple as saying Lowe > Ponson.

there are also potentially 2 draft picks attached to Lowe.

i don’t know if i would do a trade for Lowe, b/c i don’t know what he would cost on his own.

but i do know i would feel pretty good going into a playoff series with Joba, Moose, Pettitte, Lowe, and maybe Wang.

When Betemit plays, you’re getting a double-dip on the defensive downgrade, and probably not much - if any - of an improvement offensively.

This is where I disagree. I don’t think betemit will be that horrible defensively, and Betemit is certainly a much better offensive player than Melky. That is 60 percent of the time. Plus you replace Snacks with Lowe, which will make the pitching better.

So yeah, to me, it makes sense in an expected (conditional mean) sense, not in a best case scenario.

Like I said, we are talking from our subjective points of view, making our own sets of assumptions which may or may not be valid. I will let SG settle this one when he performs his analyses.

ZR doesn’t cover out of zone plays, which is precisely Jeter’s problem.

Of course it does, it just accounts for them differently.  If Jeter makes a play OOZ, ZR just adds it to his zone.  Also, RZR lists OOZ plays, and though Jeter is near the bottom, the only two who have significantly more are O. Cabrerra (15 more) and Bartlett (7 more).

Unless you can show me that his ZR has improved since June 9th I’d assume he’s probably within range of -10 than above average.

Well I don’t track daily changes in ZR.  SG does, so perhaps he can illustrate further.  But I will endeavor to go back and see if I can find what his ZR was on/around that date.

J might as well IPK and Aceves to that list

Definitely.. just a goof I left them off.

This is one long thread debating the fruits of a half-assed trade rumor.  Why on earth would the Yanks trade Cano now, when he’s starting to hit?  If Cash didn’t trade him or send him to the minors back in May, I don’t see him moving him now.

This team is starting to click and I don’t think Cashman or Hank would be wise to foul it up with any major shakeups.  If Cashman can get a good supporting player at the right price, I think he’ll jump.  But I don’t see any major roster moves and for good reason.

As for Jeter, he’s not moving anywhere.  My guess is he stays at SS until the end of his contract.  He will play the market and realize that no one will pay him big money to play SS.  He will then resign with the Yanks and play somewhere else.  But I don’t see him willingly leaving the SS position under his current contract.

“I’m sure some of the smarter people here can enlighten you.”

I believe yup, Cowboy Popup, and SG (among others) are some of the smarter people here. If all three have close to the same opinion on something, I listen very carefully.

I could enlighten you about an effective and appropriate tone to use when you have posted on a site for barely 2 weeks, but why bother? You’re probably in too deep to back out now.

“UZR is flawed, I’ve read Litchman’s methods, I’m not impressed and I’m not convinced it’s better than normal ZR. The numbers are too wild. +30 here, -50 there. It’s unbelievable. Not only that, there’s an 8 piece essay written by Mike Emeigh, who knows more about defensive stats than everyone here except SG combined, about how UZR underrates Jeter’s accomplishments in the field. ZR is usually right in line with UZR (UZR had Jeter above average in 04 btw, so there goes your Jeter has always been terrible thing), it’s certainly not clearly superior and there are at least a couple other metrics that are just as good. ZR has Jeter above average, Dewan’s +/- which typically is the most negative rating for Jeter, has him at average, and RZR has him as the best SS in the league. Either way, using a two month sample of defensive stats that’s a month and a half old is incredibly stupid. There are a couple equivalent metrics that are freely available and you’re choosing to ignore them because they don’t say what you want them to say.”

RZR uses BIS scorers as opposed to stats inc, which I trust more. It also has smaller zones as I understand it.  And it has the same problems as ZR with out of zone chances.

I haven’t looked at Dewan’s out of ignorance, not an attempt to misguide.

I don’t think betemit will be that horrible defensively, and Betemit is certainly a much better offensive player than Melky.

Melky currently has an OPS+ of 76 and Betemit has 84, but Betemit is 0/1 in SB and Melky is 7/8.  Yes, Betemit is a *little* better.  But not much.  I don’t think Betemit will be horrible defensively, but he will certainly be worse than Cano.  Probably about as much worse as the drop-off from Melky to Kemp.

And it has the same problems as ZR with out of zone chances.

There’s a column, right next to the RZR rankings that lists OOZ plays. The only SS who really makes anything up on Jeter in that is OC, who when factoring OOZ plays, looks better than Jeter this year. That’s it, in the entire league.

And I will continue to question any metric that penalizes a SS for playing in a defensive alignment that will regularly allow a 3rd baseman or a second baseman get a ball that the SS would have had if the alignment were more traditional.

“Betemit is certainly a much better offensive player than Melky. “

Certainly? I don’t think so. More powerful..Yes. Better offensive player…Not so sure. Melky hits for a better average and OBP (although both are pretty piss poor). Betemit’s best year was in 05 when he hit .305 in 240+ ABs. Melky is also 3 years younger and has a few more years before he reaches his peak. I am also pretty sure betemit has been shaky on defense this year (numbers please).

To me..Betemit is the prime example of hype gone wrong.

I don’t think Betemit will be horrible defensively, but he will certainly be worse than Cano.  Probably about as much worse as the drop-off from Melky to Kemp.

I haven’t read anything that said Kemp cannot hold down CF competently if he plays there everyday, but if you have anything that I could read, I will appreciate it.

If he is good playing RF, and has the physical attributes, can’t he move? Coco Crisp moved from LF to CF, has done well. Ichiro moved from RF to LF, and did really well. Kemp is a really good athlete, can’t he do that?

Also, like I said, let’s wait until SG posts something so that we can stop making up comparative numbers.

“I could enlighten you about an effective and appropriate tone to use when you have posted on a site for barely 2 weeks, but why bother? You’re probably in too deep to back out now.”

You’re right. 

Cowboy, I fear you were right regarding my ignorance. I’m sorry for my tone, it was uncalled for and embarrassing in hindsight.

I would trade Cano for Lincecum… maybe.

To me..Betemit is the prime example of hype gone wrong.

Betemit > Cairo. That’s all we cared about at the time.

dcristal- whats up with those tickets?

Also, I don’t think Wikipedia generally makes up stuff, so here is what it said about Kemp:

“After a knee injury to Andruw Jones, Kemp moved to his natural position of Center Field.”

So, it seems that CF is his natural position.

Betemit has been a bit of a disappointment.  He was supposed to have some OBP skill.  That has vanished this year.  Sample size, perhaps…

j - im waiting for my brother to give me “The List” of who has which game. He is a soldier right now tending to his pregnant wife. I will shoot you an e-mail as soon as I know.

I’m sorry for my tone, it was uncalled for and embarrassing in hindsight.

No worries man, I should have been more patient, I made a much bigger ass of myself when I first learned about defensive statistics (SG, RB, Rlr, and a few others could vouch for this I think) and to this day misuse and misunderstand them an awful lot. I try to sort all the information and mesh it with what my eyes see, and I end up being wrong pretty often but I have a special place in my heart for my man Jeter, so I stand by my conclusions on him pretty firmly.

A silver lining from ESPN:
Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek will likely feel the ripple effect of the New York Yankees Jorge Posada begin injured, ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney writes.

Varitek (36) is just a few months younger than Posada and eligible for free agency after this season. Posada’s physical breakdown will just reaffirm the Red Sox’s likely proclivity to offer Varitek at most a two year extension.

Olney writes that several rival executives have said they would be shocked if Boston offered Varitek more than two years. One offical went so far as to say, “I’d be very surprised if he’s back with the Red Sox.”

So, it seems that CF is his natural position.

Interesting. It’s hard to tell with Dodger prospects. Usually you can get a sense of a prospect’s abilities by how much faith their organization has in them, but with the Dodgers, they seem to be so luke warm on all of their young players (except Martin and Kershaw) that it’s tough get a real read on them without paying close attention (I mean, who would sign a high priced CFer two (!) years in a row with a guy like Kemp waiting in the wings to play center? And then you realize, Ned Colletti would and it ruins the whole process).

j - im waiting for my brother to give me “The List” of who has which game. He is a soldier right now tending to his pregnant wife. I will shoot you an e-mail as soon as I know.

Good deal man.. all the best to the future mom and dad.

Is Freddy Garcia an option to pitch this year or is he working out for teams to secure a contract for 2009?

“No worries man, I should have been more patient, I made a much bigger ass of myself when I first learned about defensive statistics (SG, RB, Rlr, and a few others could vouch for this I think) and to this day misuse and misunderstand them an awful lot. I try to sort all the information and mesh it with what my eyes see, and I end up being wrong pretty often but I have a special place in my heart for my man Jeter, so I stand by my conclusions on him pretty firmly.”

Thank you

Well, things certainly got spirited.

Regarding Jeter and his defense, MGL has endorsed zone rating as ‘quite good’, in an interview on this very blog. 

STATS Zone Rating is fine.  It just doesn’t make very good use of the data.  For example, a soft ground ball in one location is treated the same as a hard one, and a fly ball in the outfield is treated the same as a line drive (I think).  As well, all balls in a fielder’s zone are treated the same regardless of their actual location (5 feet from the fielder or 15 feet).  There are no park adjustments either.  That makes a big difference in parks like Colorado, and in left field at Fenway, for example.

All of that makes ZR sound bad, but it really is quite good, especially when it is expressed as runs saved or earned so that a person can combine it with offensive RC or linear weights.  All of those things that ZR does not account for (which UZR does) tend to even out in the long run, so the larger the sample, the more ZR will agree with UZR and other good PBP-based metrics.

Jeter was brutal last year by every metric, including zone rating.  Here are his ZR runs saved above average for every year in his career:

1995 : -3
1996 : -13
1997 : -2
1998 : 4
1999 : 0
2000 : -13
2001 : -18
2002 : -16
2003 : -14
2004 : 3
2005 : 1
2006 : -5
2007 : -20
2008 : 2 (on pace for +4)

I had Jeter projected at -10 for 2008 based on a weighed average of 2002-2007 with regression and aging factored in.  Assuming he keeps at his current pace he’d project a little better than that in 2009, maybe -7 or so.  I still wouldn’t consider Jeter to be a good defensive SS, because the data tells me he isn’t, but he’s definitely not as bad as he was in 2007, where I think he was playing hurt for most of the year.

The reason I prefer ZR to UZR is strictly a matter of availability.  I trust MGL and I think UZR is the more accurate system, but I don’t have ready access to it.  I can use ZR to figure out anyone’s defense whenever I want, without having to wait for MGL to post UZRs somewhere.

As far as RZR and the smaller zones, I think that’s actually a detriment.  Smaller zones means more plays are made out of zone.  Without knowing how many chances a player has out of his zone, you have to estimate the out of zone chances and I think that brings down your accuracy.  At least ZR includes plays made out of zone in the chances, which is better IMO.  So if a player misses an out of zone chance he is not penalized for it, but if he makes one he gets credit for it.  RZR leaves it up to us to decide how to handle OOZ plays.

ZR is certainly not perfect, but as long as you acknowledge its shortcomings and make sure you understand there are some error bars in any numbers calculated using it, it’s certainly a decent system IMO.  Of course, it’s certainly anyone’s right to use whatever system they feel most comfortable using.

Jeter’s zone rating on June 9 was .821.  He had seen 165 chances and converted 134 of them into outs.  An average SS (ZR of .830) would have converted 137 of them into outs.  So Jeter was 3 plays below average, 2 runs below average, and on pace to be -6.  Since then, Jeter has seen 100 chances.  He’s converted 88 of those into outs, a ZR of .880 over that stretch, raising his season ZR to .838.  He has been 6 plays above average over those 100 chances, or 4 runs saved, making his current season line 3 plays above average, and 2 runs saved.

How closely that correlates with UZR, I have no idea, but I’d guess it should show up at least somewhat.

Well, things certainly got spirited.

Group hug!

Ah, reconciliation.  That’s good because I haven’t been able to find yet what Jeter’s ZR was on or around 06/09, and Im’ getting tired of looking!

Group hug!

Whoever’s trying to feel me up, get your paws off me right now.

This is what happens when there is no frickin game in the middle of the week. And right after the All-Star break to boot. Thursday off? That’s bull!

“Ah, reconciliation.  That’s good because I haven’t been able to find yet what Jeter’s ZR was on or around 06/09, and Im’ getting tired of looking!”

I’m having a Cano first half :(

That certainly is encouraging for next year.

I haven’t read anything that said Kemp cannot hold down CF competently if he plays there everyday, but if you have anything that I could read, I will appreciate it.

I’ll admit I took that from some stuff I have read here over the past couple of weeks.  Certainly not scientific.  Just doing a quick look this year…Kemp’s ZR in CF is .893 and Melky’s is .921.  Can’t do a straight comparison because of differences in league, but I think Melky is definitely a better defensive CF than Kemp, though Kemp doesn’t appear to be a slouch.  I think SG noted earlier how we really don’t have enough data to make any real assessment though.

I still think there will be a defensive drop-off from Melky to Kemp, though probably not much.  Kemp could indeed be the CF for the Yankees this year or next.  If Cash can wave a magic wand and turn Abreu into Kemp I’d put Kemp in RF this year, and try to sign another OF for next.  Maybe that would light a fire under Melky and he could improve his numbers.

If Cash can wave a magic wand and turn Abreu into Kemp

What else could Cash’s magic wand do? I’m interested.

If the Dodgers want Cano, they need to send back Kemp and Billingsley. And Broxton. And Loney.

And Kershaw.

and Martin. let’s not skimp here.

What else could Cash’s magic wand do? I’m interested.

It once turned several non-prospects into Abreu.  It once turned Aaron Small into a decent ML pitcher (only had a 3-month warranty).  Heck, he’s even used it to get The Boss to stop meddling!  Hoping he has a few more tricks in it…

I think Washburn is actually a really good idea if it will really only cost Igawa, money, and a throw in. Vidro could possibly be a useful bench player, or you could just cut him.

On Kemp’s defense, from a Dodger Thoughts poster:

I think he can at least be average and has the tools to be a high quality center fielder. He needs to take better routes to the ball, but his athleticism can make up for his mistakes.

Looks very similar to Melky to me in this assessment, although Melky has made some tremendous plays this year.

Also, remember, when Melky came up, people were really skeptical of his ability to play CF. He has proved he can play competently there, although I am not very fond of his routes.

I think that if Cashman doesn’t trade Moeller for Berkman, Chipper, Miguel Cabrera and A-Rod he is obviously unfit to run this team!!11q1

It once turned several non-prospects into Abreu.  It once turned Aaron Small into a decent ML pitcher (only had a 3-month warranty).  Heck, he’s even used it to get The Boss to stop meddling!

So Cashman’s wand killed Corey Lidle and made the boss senile? I am not going to ever cross Cashman!

I am probably going to get a “poor taste” or “too soon” comment for that.

It once turned several non-prospects into Abreu.  It once turned Aaron Small into a decent ML pitcher (only had a 3-month warranty).  Heck, he’s even used it to get The Boss to stop meddling!  Hoping he has a few more tricks in it…

It has also turned Snacks Pontoon into a competent pitcher for 4 extremely valuable starts.

It’s going to be pretty difficult, or really easy for Cash to trade Moeller for A-Rod.

I am probably going to get a “poor taste” or “too soon” comment for that

Yeah, that was.  You obviously caught it right after you posted.

It’s going to be pretty difficult, or really easy for Cash to trade Moeller for A-Rod.

Maybe he means in their bowling league?

So Cashman’s wand killed Corey Lidle and made the boss senile? I am not going to ever cross Cashman!

No, that was Omar Minaya.  He stole Cashman’s bandwidth.

And yes, that was in poor taste AND too soon.

[184] It will be easy!1111wwd

also, regarding all the comments about trading Jeter….from a pure baseball standpoint, probably it maybe would make sense. From a, ‘I’ll take things that are never ever no way no how ever fucking going to happen for a Thousand Alex.’ standpoint, it’s never gonna happen. Jeter will be a 50 year old reliever before the Yankees show him the door.

And Jeter isn’t comparable to Bernie. Closeish, but Jeter is a LEGEND. Jeter is a DIETY. Jeter is a JEITY. Jeter is on such a different level than Bernie.

Jeter will be a 50 year old reliever before the Yankees show him the door.

I know the Yanks don’t like sliders, but Jeter gets some heft on his throws with a nearly 3/4 arm angle, teach him a big loopy slider and I bet he could be a poor man’s Jeff Nelson. Touch 90-91 on the gun (maybe 88-89) and then break out a slider and he’s good to go.

Will Jeter pitch teh 8th???!!?

The board making a big attempt at jinxing Joba tomorrow.

Jeter is a JEITY

nice.

Learning to turn the DP at 2nd base at 34 is an absurd idea. A totally different thing from turning a DP as a SS. Dead and buried.

If SG shows up he can tell us how many more plays an average SS sees than an average 2B, to try to figure out how much �better� Jeter would even be there.

Just catching up.  Regarding this, here are the average fieldable chances each position sees in a typical year (from this article by Chris Dial:

This would obviously be impacted by a team’s strikeout rate, GB/FB tendencies, handedness, and random variation.  But obviously you want your best defenders seeing the most chances if you can help it.

As far as how defense at one position translates to another, we can use the defensive positional adjustments from Tango Tiger’s fan scouting reports as posted here as a rough guide.

The way this works is you’d add or subtract the number in the run column as you move a player from one position to another.  Obviously, this isn’t perfect, but I think it works ok if you compare OF to OF and IF to IF.  For example, Johnny Damon projected to be -2 in CF this year, which makes him a +2.6 neutral position defender.  If we move him to LF, where the average player is a -7, he should be worth around 9-10 runs above average.  So far Damon’s on pace to +3 in LF, although he was better than that earlier in the season.

So for Jeter, if we moved him from SS, assuming he’s a -7 talent now, he’s a -3.5 neutral talent defender.  Move him to 2B, he loses another 1.3 runs, be maybe a -5 defender there.  Cowboy Popup does raise fair points about the difficulty of switching positions at age 34 and there are physical differences that won’t translate equally for all players that we can’t really account for.  After 15 years turning the pivot on one side of the bag I’d guess it’s not easy to just switch to the other side.

I still think Jeter to RF makes a lot of sense.  His arm would play out there and he tracks fly balls well.  He’s faster than Paul O’Neill was and O’Neill was a fine defender out there.

Olney writes that several rival executives have said they would be shocked if Boston offered Varitek more than two years. One offical went so far as to say, “I’d be very surprised if he’s back with the Red Sox.”

wait, isn’t this bad news for the yankees?

Whoever’s trying to feel me up, get your paws off me right now.

sorry.

I still think Jeter to RF makes a lot of sense.  His arm would play out there and he tracks fly balls well.  He’s faster than Paul O’Neill was and O’Neill was a fine defender out there.

I do too, and while I suspect the move to the OF will help his bat, I’d like to see him finish strong this before I go back to pimping that suggestion a better SS option becomes available. He obviously can’t play right if he’s going to post a 102 OPS+, a ton of DPs, and more run of the mill baserunning than we’re accustomed to from him.

wait, isn’t this bad news for the yankees?

Well, it depends on who the Sox replace Varitek with.

So for Jeter, if we moved him from SS, assuming he’s a -7 talent now, he’s a -3.5 neutral talent defender.  Move him to 2B, he loses another 1.3 runs, be maybe a -5 defender there.

Thanks!  Somewhere up above I guess 2 runs.  I should go guess tonight’s winning number in the Powerball now…