Thursday, July 24, 2008
Rumored Trade Targets and Their Projected Value
In the last post, yup asked:SG, how about a projection of some of the pitchers on the rumor mill? say, Washburn, Arroyo, Lowe, Burnett vs. Ponson/Rasner? how many wins would replacing Ponson vs. Washburn get you? just an idea. thanks!
I like requests because then i don't have to think about what to write myself, so here we go.
| Pitcher | IP | IP/GS | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRAA | FRAR |
| Lowe,Derek | 74 | 6.2 | 77 | 32 | 7 | 19 | 44 | 3.90 | 4.01 | 1.6 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 7.4 |
| Burnett,A.J. | 81 | 6.7 | 77 | 37 | 8 | 31 | 68 | 4.13 | 3.96 | -0.2 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 8.7 |
| Arroyo,Bronson | 74 | 6.2 | 82 | 38 | 10 | 23 | 48 | 4.62 | 4.59 | -4.3 | 2.5 | -4.0 | 2.7 |
| Washburn,Jarrod | 69 | 5.8 | 78 | 36 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 4.70 | 4.77 | -4.6 | 1.7 | -5.1 | 1.2 |
| Rasner,Darrell | 66 | 5.5 | 78 | 36 | 8 | 17 | 35 | 4.91 | 4.49 | -5.9 | 0.1 | -2.8 | 3.2 |
| Ponson,Sidney | 65 | 5.4 | 78 | 39 | 11 | 26 | 41 | 5.44 | 5.36 | -9.6 | -3.7 | -9.0 | -3.1 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 x HR + 3 x (BB + HBP) - 2 x SO) / IP + 3.2. This regresses BABIP to league average for everyone by focusing on the things a pitcher has direct control over.
RSAA: Runs saved above average. Park-adjusted league average relief RA (R/IP*9) - Individual relief RA divided by 9 times IP. Includes all runs, not just earned runs.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. I just multiply park-adjusted league average relief RA by 1.2, since AAA is about 80% of the quality of the AL.
FRAA: RSAA using FIP instead of RA.
FRAR: RSAR using FIP instead of RA.
I assumed 12 starts for everyone here, and used their average innings pitched per games started to project their playing time.
I'm not a big Derek Lowe fan, but at least statistically, he'd be a good pickup. A.J. Burnett would also be a good pickup, but odds are getting him from a divisional rival will not be easy, and he is a very good risk to get hurt. Getting Brandon Arroyo or Jarrod Washburn would only be an upgrade of a run or two on Darrell Rasner. Any of the trade targets would be a significant upgrade on Snacks Pontoon's projection, but then again, moving Johnny Damon to the mound might be as well.
The impact of mid-season trades is generally over-stated. No matter how good a player is, it's hard to have a huge impact over a couple of months. That being said, even though I'm not a huge Lowe fan, if he could be acquired relatively cheaply, I'd consider it. He's a free agent after this season and should be a Type-A, so the cost is not Lowe - who you trade for him, it's Lowe -who you trade for him plus Dodger first round pick plus supplemental pick. Burnett, eh. Always had a great arm but if he hasn't put it together yet, when is he going to? J.P. Ricciardi is a horse's ass who shifted his rotation to make sure Roy Halladay pitched against the Yankees. He'd probably ask for the Yankees' top five prospects for Burnett. Arroyo stinks. Washburn is mediocre AND is expensive. If he was only signed through year-end he might be worth a flier, but he's signed for 2009 at around $10 million. The only way picking him up makes sense to me is if Igawa goes in the deal. Then you're at least converting a sunk cost to a cost that could pay dividends.
Seriously, I think this teams needs a bat more than a pitcher. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui are likely out for the year, and they've been replaced by Richie Sexson.
Comments
thanks SG! you are the man.
Moose is in the top ten in ERA and ERA+.
Even getting the top guys in that list (Lowe, Burnett) it look like it *might* add a win or two to the Yankees the rest of the way. I also got the impressiont that neither one will come cheap since Burnett would be an in-division trade and Colletti isn’t known for making trades in general.
As loath as I am to support Ponson, I’d take the under on his projected ERA, which further minimizes the need for a starter.
There’s a rumor that the Dodgers may want Alberto Gonzalez.
Imagine Alberto Gonzalez + Kennedy for Kemp.
Imagine Alberto Gonzalez + Kennedy for Kemp.
Imagine a pony too.
With a horn. I think it’s called a unicorn.
mmm, tasty.
I wish I had a pony.
Kellerman and Kenny just mentioned that supposedly the Dodgers want Cano for Lowe and Kemp.
F that.
me upon my pony upon my boat.
Cano for Lowe and Kemp? Man, that IS enticing.
I love Cano, but I think Kemp will be an overall better player. That alone makes it worthwhile, I suppose.
The problem is then you need to trade for a second baseman as well, and Ray Durham is not available anymore. And no viable replacements available. So you replace Melky with Kemp, but you have either Betemit playing everyday, or Alberto Gonzalez. That could work, but I am skeptical.
That trade makes no sense to me. Yes, Kemp will be a good player, but at the same time you’d have a replacement-level 2b. How does that help?
I wouldn’t trade Cano for Kemp.
Please don’t do it.
there’s no chance of jeter moving over to 2nd base next year right?
I think Kemp has stud written all over him, but I wouldn’t have the guts to trade Cano if it was up to me.
I love Cano, but I think Kemp will be an overall better player.
What are you basing this on? He’s a worse hitter at 23 then Cano was. He plays in an inferior league and he plays a less important defensive position not as well. There’s a reason they’re offering Kemp and a #2 starter for Cano.
Kellerman and Kenny just mentioned that supposedly the Dodgers want Cano for Lowe and Kemp.
Change Lowe to Kershaw and I might start considering it.
The Dodgers are looking for a bat and a SS. So Jeter for Kemp makes sense, but Cashman wouldn’t do that, thats a shame.
Long term, I see Kemp and Cano as having similar careers. Right now I think having a good defensive second baseman is more important to the Yankees and I think Cano will have a better second half than Kemp. So this trade if you want to support it (and if you’re high enough on Kemp and like the AG at second its possible) seems like a downgrade in the short term no matter which way you slice it.
As long as we’re offering up preposterous trade proposals, how about Cano+Kennedy for Kemp+Loney+Kershaw? Or, hell, Kemp+Loney+Lowe.
Jeter for Kemp? I know Kemp is a good player, but that seems a bit extreme
No no no no no no no. Cashman wouldn’t go for this, not after protecting Cano from trades for the past 3-4 years.
The Dodgers are looking for a bat and a SS. So Jeter for Kemp makes sense, but Cashman wouldn’t do that, thats a shame.
yes, i can’t believe Cashman won’t trade Jeter. what an idiot. it would have no other ancillary effects on the team above their respective on-field production.
What are you basing this on? He’s a worse hitter at 23 then Cano was. He plays in an inferior league and he plays a less important defensive position not as well.
Three things:
1. I believe Kemp can play good CF defense. That is a more challenging offensive position than second base.
2. I don’t think Cano is really a .342/.365/.525 player, that his age 23 season suggested. Much of his value is tied in being able to hit for high average, and he is prone to very long slumps. I would prefer a player who has a more penchant for walks, and can hit for better power. Plus he is a far better baserunner.
3. It is a pitching dominated league. It may be inferior, but Kemp plays in a ballpark that is very pitching oriented, and a league, that, with the exception of Arizona and Colorado, are not very hitting friendly. So, while the league does suck, Kemp doesn’t.
I don’t know if this is a case of comparing apples and oranges, but maybe SG can run a comp of some sort on Cano and Kemp?
Who’s available at 2b this off season? By trade or FA?
Actually, is there a SS available and we slide Jeter over to 2b?
1. I believe Kemp can play good CF defense. That is a more challenging offensive position than second base.
Defensive, sorry.
1. I believe Kemp can play good CF defense. That is a more challenging defense position than second base.
CF might be more challenging, but second base sees about 70 more chances a season than CF, so second base defense is more valuable.
I don’t know if this is a case of comparing apples and oranges, but maybe SG can run a comp of some sort on Cano and Kemp?
Maybe he could.
Also, here is another piece of data. Take EQA, the most complete offensive stat. Cano’s age 23 season was worth .289, because his baserunning sucks.
Kemp, this season, is at .288, while having underperformed expectations (I believe).
1. I believe Kemp can play good CF defense. That is a more challenging offensive position than second base.
is this true? i don’t think it is. i thought the CW is that he is very good in a corner but would be stretched in CF.
2. I don’t think Cano is really a .342/.365/.525 player, that his age 23 season suggested. Much of his value is tied in being able to hit for high average, and he is prone to very long slumps.
so is Kemp.
i think you are confusing Kemp for someone who has shown any sort of plate discipline.
he is almost the exact same type of hitter as Cano. all of the knocks on Cano apply to Kemp as well.
would i LOVE to have Kemp? absolutely. i would do cartwheels if Cashman landed him somehow.
but it’s a little ironic that you used Cano’s isoD to make your case, when Kemp has NEVER shown this ability either.
That is a more challenging offensive position than second base.
Over the last three years, CFers have had the higher EQA three years. This year they’re even. Historically, 2nd base is almost always a worse hitting position than CF.
It may be inferior, but Kemp plays in a ballpark that is very pitching oriented, and a league
Dodger stadium has been a hitters park since 2005.
and a league, that, with the exception of Arizona and Colorado, are not very hitting friendly.
And Cincy. And Philly. And Milwaukee. And Chicago. So two of his division rivals and his home park and four others are pretty good hitters parks, all but Milwaukee are really good.
So, while the league does suck, Kemp doesn’t.
But he hasn’t been very good. He strikes out a TON. Nearly once every 3 ABs. He would have to have incredible on-contact #s (thank you Walt Davis) to actually be a great hitter. He doesn’t walk that much, he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough when he does hit it, to believe there’s a whole lot of upside their. His numbers on contact would have to be similar to Ryan Howards for him to be a really good hitter. They’re not and he’s not likely to hit for that kind of power.
Kemp, this season, is at .288, while having underperformed expectations (I believe).
Look at Kemp’s BABIP last year. Last year was a fluke. This year is more realistic.
Actually, is there a SS available and we slide Jeter over to 2b?
Before the year I would have liked the Yanks to look at Furcal in 2009, but his injury scares me.
—-yes, i can’t believe Cashman won’t trade Jeter. what an idiot. it would have no other ancillary effects on the team above their respective on-field production.—-
Like when Nomar got traded.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/kempma01.php
Ok, his CF numbers don’t look too bad to me, but I could be convinced otherwise.
but it’s a little ironic that you used Cano’s isoD to make your case, when Kemp has NEVER shown this ability either.
I concede the point on his high K rate (CP also makes the same point), but his minor league numbers suggest we could expect improvement there. If not, then you are absolutely right, and it is probably even.
Before the year I would have liked the Yanks to look at Furcal in 2009, but his injury scares me.
Me too. And I think Jeter has bought himself at least one more year at SS with his play this year.
Look at Kemp’s BABIP last year. Last year was a fluke. This year is more realistic.
Ok, then I will wait for you to run through the analysis ym suggested.
3. It is a pitching dominated league. It may be inferior, but Kemp plays in a ballpark that is very pitching oriented, and a league, that, with the exception of Arizona and Colorado, are not very hitting friendly. So, while the league does suck, Kemp doesn’t.
Actually, I believe on The Book Blog last year, when MGL looked at the differences in the leagues, he concluded that the AL’s advantage was mostly having superior pitching. Also, as CP mentioned, Dodger Stadium has played pretty neutral the past few years (I believe they reconfigured some seating and removed some foul territory).
As to the Jeter trade proposals. I know those mostly joking, but even if the Yankees wanted to trade him, he would never waive his no-trade anyway.
We have options on 2012-2013 Cano whereas Kemp is arb eligible until 2012, so there’s potentially some money.
Cano’s plate discipline concerns me, I’m not sure he’ll grow into the #3 hitter we were hoping for.
Kemp is a RHB, which we can certainly use.
Hmmm…
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/kempma01.php
I think ZR likes him more than Bpro. But he doesn’t have much time in CF so it’s hard to draw any real conclusions from the numbers.
That and Bpro’s defensive numbers are worse than worthless. All the do is spread misinformation.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/kempma01.php
Ok, his CF numbers don’t look too bad to me, but I could be convinced otherwise.
BPro’s defensive numbers are worse than useless.
Also, SG, I was more comparing Cano’s EqA at 2006, his best year to date, vs. Kemp’s current year, which I am fairly confident is not his peak year. Probably that is a wrong analysis, as both are young enough not to have peaked yet.
Ok, his CF numbers don’t look too bad to me, but I could be convinced otherwise.
B Pro’s defensive numbers are worse than worthless.
He hasn’t really played enough MLB CF to make any definitive assessment of his ability. His Zone Rating in CF over 187 chances is .866, which is a touch below average, although again, not enough to make any worthwhile statistical case.
. Probably that is a wrong analysis, as both are young enough not to have peaked yet.
Unfortunately, I don’t think Cano will ever top 2006.
How do we feel about BPro’s defensive numbers?
“Look at Kemp’s BABIP last year. Last year was a fluke. This year is more realistic.”
As was Cano’s 06.
Kemp’s lifetime BABIP is .390? Nuts. I’ve heard Dodgers fans talk about how hard his hits are, that is a somewhat repeatable skill, no? (not that I expect that type of level)
How do we feel about BPro’s defensive numbers?
less than worth worse?
also, hasn’t kemp been jerked around in terms of regular playing time, while cano has had 2nd base locked up for years? maybe kemp is more likely to develop as a hitter.
Kemp’s lifetime BABIP is .390? Nuts. I’ve heard Dodgers fans talk about how hard his hits are, that is a somewhat repeatable skill, no? (not that I expect that type of level)
There is definitely a skill component to BABIP for batters, but .417 (Kemp’s 2007 BABIP) is unlikely sustainable.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Kemp a lot. But I like Cano too.
How do we feel about BPro’s defensive numbers?
On a scale of 1 to 10, they are a 0.
Like when Nomar got traded.
right, exact same situation.
Nomar fought with management in the off-season, refusing what he felt was an unacceptable contract extensions. he was going to be a free agent at the end of the year.
he pouted through the entire season. management started the smear campaign right after the “Jeter diving in the stands” game when he was the only player who didn’t play. reams upon reams were written contrasting him sitting in the dugout pounting while Jeter was carried off the field with a bloody face.
trading Jeter *right now* would cause an earthquake of unimaginable proportions.
trading Nomar was considered a ballsy and bold move, but the writing had been on the wall for a while before it happened.
I think Cano for Kemp and Lowe makes tons of sense. I think they are going to be roughly equal players: high average, no patience, good but not great power, above average defense. Add Lowe (and the 2 picks he’s worth) and the fact that Kemp is cheaper, the Yanks win talent wise.
Also, Yankees desparately need a good young OF for next year (I want no part of Abreu), and a RH bat. If Kemp can handle CF, Damon in left, you could get a big bat to split RF/DH with Matsui (Burrell?, Dunn?) who can then be the DH when Matsui’s contract expires in a year. Or, you put Kemp in RF, and get a good glove guy for CF. You then can could either go get a 2B, or a SS and move Jeter. The only downside to me is who fills in at 2B this year. Any trade candidates come to mind? What about Grudzialanek? I can’t believe KC would want more than a B- type prospect.
I know this comes up every other year but it may be time for Jeter to start considering CF. I feel like now is the time for him to do it.
Washburn would be an upgrade, Ponson is a train wreck waiting to happen. It might not happen before they get Wang back, but I wouldn’t bank on that. Neither Lowe nor Burnett trades have a remote chance of happening, the Yankees just don’t have any surplus prospects that the Dodgers or Jays might covet. Yes, Washburn is mediocre and overpriced, so the Yankees are in a very good negotiating position. Money is what they do have. A mediocre lefty could be productive in the bullpen next year if he would be blocking anyone from the rotation, and he seems to pitch better at the stadium.
In my opinion the Yankees should not be looking to just add a bat, rather they should try to fill a position that will open up after the 2008 season (i.e. RF, 1B). They have been hitting better lately, if that does not continue they are done for this season anyway.
It seems to me that Cano and Kemp are similar hitters, but Cano plays a more demanding position, and plays it well. While Lowe is worth mentioning, he’s still not enough to leave me satisfied.
Abe is reporting Vidro and Wasbhurn could be had for Igawa? Gotta make that trade.
You know what, Cano for Kemp and Lowe makes perfect sense for the Yankees, but I love Cano and would be sad if the deal went through.
It seems to me that Cano and Kemp are similar hitters, but Cano plays a more demanding position, and plays it well. While Lowe is worth mentioning, he’s still not enough to leave me satisfied.
What he said. It’s much, much, much easier to find an OF(even a CF and the Yankees have Jackson anyway) that can hit than it is to find a 2B that can hit.
Abe is reporting Vidro and Wasbhurn could be had for Igawa? Gotta make that trade.
You do realize that Vidro cancels out any benefit from adding Washburn, and millions more in salary. right? If so, please explain why you have to make that trade.
I just don’t understand how trading Cano for Lowe and Kemp solves the Yankees major problem of offensive craptitude. OK, Lowe fits snuggly into the rotation but you lose your starting 2B (who is just heating up) for an OF who definitely had an above average 2007. His BABIP of .411 last year is a red flag.
Overall, its likely a downgrade in offense.
“Don’t get me wrong, I like Kemp a lot. But I like Cano too.”
My initial reaction was a soft no, and after looking deeper it’s about the same.
Kemp:
Excellent RFer
Righty
One more year of arbitration
Younger, sporadic playing time= better chance of improvement
He’d come with Lowe, who’d be a massive improvement over Snacks- for one year
Looks prepped to have a good second half
Cano
Excellent defense at a more important position
Harder position to find a replacement 2b then OF (dunn, burrell…)
Under control for longer with the options, albeit potentially more expensive, IF they’re worth picking up
Will probably tear up the second half
Any one that supports trading Cano needs to say who replaces him in the lineup. Until we determine that, how can we really assess the impact?
Any one that supports trading Cano needs to say who replaces him in the lineup. Until we determine that, how can we really assess the impact?
Hmmm…didn’t think of that. Good point.
Apparently Jose Vidro is still available, he used to play a decent second base in about 2002 or so.
“I just don’t understand how trading Cano for Lowe and Kemp solves the Yankees major problem of offensive craptitude.”
I’m more worried about he back end of our rotation than the offense.
I definitely think this trade makes us better *right now*, but I’m not sure it’s worth the implications it has on the 3 years following.
Even if Kemp is stretched in CF, he’s a massive improvement over Melky. Lowe over Snacks doesn’t need to be expounded on.
Heh, now I’m thinking I’d do it.
“I just don’t understand how trading Cano for Lowe and Kemp solves the Yankees major problem of offensive craptitude.”
I’m more worried about he back end of our rotation than the offense.
I wouldn’t be. The starting pitching has been great. Sure, Snacks won’t continue this horseshoe-up-the-bum run, but since he’s merely the 5th guy, I’m not at all scared. For two reasons, really: Wang and/or Hughes could be back by September. Hughes has already started throwing on flat ground and even curves from half way up.
So, trading Cano for Kemp basically gives you Lowe for August and possibly September and a good OF hitter while leaving a gaping hole at 2B. No thanks.
“Harder position to find a replacement 2b then OF (dunn, burrell…) “
I don’t think that’s true. Ellis and O. Hudson are both FAs next year.
I just don’t understand how trading Cano for Lowe and Kemp solves the Yankees major problem of offensive craptitude.
The ‘offensive craptitude’ has been due to several MIA bats in the lineup, but that drought seems to be over. The Cano for Kemp deal is way too complicated for a team that still believes it can play in October.
I don’t think that’s true. Ellis and O. Hudson are both FAs next year.
And are 30+ at a position where most players (especially the not great ones) just don’t age well. I’d pass.
“I wouldn’t be. The starting pitching has been great. Sure, Snacks won’t continue this horseshoe-up-the-bum run, but since he’s merely the 5th guy, I’m not at all scared. For two reasons, really: Wang and/or Hughes could be back by September. Hughes has already started throwing on flat ground and even curves from half way up.
So, trading Cano for Kemp basically gives you Lowe for August and possibly September and a good OF hitter while leaving a gaping hole at 2B. No thanks.”
Snacks is a ticking time bomb and, according to Cashman, we’re not getting Hughes back in the majors this year. I really don’t like Rasner as a #4.
I’m quite found of “gaping holes”
“I don’t think that’s true. Ellis and O. Hudson are both FAs next year.”
Good.
Sliding Jeter to 2b will be a much easier sell than the OF too.
Yeah - I agree with CT Yankee. I really don’t see the need to shake it up that much.
Wang is coming back in September. Damon is back. Posada might still play, for better or worse.
And I think the difference between Cano and Betemit (or whomever) is greater than the difference between Kemp and Melky. Especially after adjusting for defense (where Cano and Melky both win going away).
Cano for Kemp and Lowe
You guys do realize that this comes from George King, don’t you? He either flat out made it up, or mis-heard “Kemp” for “Kent”. Could have saved yourselves 60 posts or so.
“according to Cashman, we’re not getting Hughes back in the majors this year”
Is this true? Haven’t heard that ...
Snacks is a ticking time bomb and, according to Cashman, we’re not getting Hughes back in the majors this year. I really don’t like Rasner as a #4.
There’s still Wang, Kennedy, Pavano and McCutchen. It’s not worth getting a starter for a guy who is going to hit like an MVP candidate while playing a good second base over the next two months.
Sliding Jeter to 2b will be a much easier sell than the OF too.
And it will not work. You can’t just take a 34 year old baseball player and say “now it’s time to learn how to play a very complicated up the middle position that you’ve never played before”. It’s not practical and considering how improved Jeter’s D has been this year, I’m not sure there’s really any gains to be made doing it.
“Harder position to find a replacement 2b then OF (dunn, burrell…) “
I don’t think that’s true. Ellis and O. Hudson are both FAs next year.
Ellis and Hudson with their whopping 100 and 99 OPS+ respectively? No thank you.
“according to Cashman, we’re not getting Hughes back in the majors this year”
Is this true? Haven’t heard that ...
I don’t know where that comes from. Hughes has been throwing since early July. He has a legit shot at being back in the majors by September.
“I don’t think that’s true. Ellis and O. Hudson are both FAs next year.”
Some paper or site had a quote about 2 weeks ago. He’s going to go the minors to get himself straight.
“And I think the difference between Cano and Betemit (or whomever) is greater than the difference between Kemp and Melky. Especially after adjusting for defense (where Cano and Melky both win going away).”
You’re forgetting that we also replace Sidney Ponson with Derek Lowe. That easily tips it for this year.
(how do I italicize?)
That easily tips it for this year.
It still makes the team worse for the future. You have Lowe, so there’s no room for Sabathia. You have Kemp, so there’s no room for Dunn or Burrell or Bay because Jackson comes up in 09. You have to sign Ellis or O-Dawg, so the infield is now old with zero upside. It makes the team more inflexible and severely limits their options in 09 and beyond. All for a playoff push that will probably happen anyway. It doesn’t really make them stronger for the postseason either.
Make the trade because you can just DFA Vidro, and all it costs you is dollars.
Lowe’s only under contract for this season, so they get draft picks.
Not that this has any chance of happening anyway.
He’s going to go the minors to get himself straight.
That’s called rehab. Maybe his he sucks during his rehab assignment and doesn’t make it back, but if he’s dominant to good he’ll be back up.
“And I think the difference between Cano and Betemit (or whomever) is greater than the difference between Kemp and Melky. Especially after adjusting for defense (where Cano and Melky both win going away).”
You’re forgetting that we also replace Sidney Ponson with Derek Lowe. That easily tips it for this year.
That’s great, and who do we have playing 2b for the next 5 years? Hope you like the former Attorney General…
You have Lowe, so there’s no room for Sabathia.
Lowe is a rental.
You have Kemp, so there’s no room for Dunn or Burrell or Bay because Jackson comes up in 09.
not sure i understand this “concern”. Kemp would be about 25 years old and could hold the position for a decade, isn’t that what you are looking for? also, there is still LF to fill.
that said, i wouldn’t do the deal simply b/c i think Cano is more valuable than Kemp, unless Kemp is a plus fielding CFer, which i don’t think he is.
“And it will not work. You can’t just take a 34 year old baseball player and say “now it’s time to learn how to play a very complicated up the middle position that you’ve never played before”. It’s not practical and considering how improved Jeter’s D has been this year, I’m not sure there’s really any gains to be made doing it.”
Right, how dumb of me to think someone could move from a more demanding IF position to a lesser one.
Kemp would be about 25 years old and could hold the position for a decade, isn’t that what you are looking for?
Well, either he or Jackson is going to have to play LF or RF if we get one of them, so that lowers their marginal value to the team if you have both. Of course, Kemp isn’t a CFer, so he’s playing in RF, in which case, he’s not nearly as valuable as Cano. And there is legitimate concern (at least in my mind) that he might never hit enough to become a good RFer.
Additionally, the best FAs and trade options this offseason will be OFers. It’s the easiest way for the Yanks to upgrade talent free. Trade Cano for Kemp and now they’re looking to buy a second baseman, which is harder to come by in general, and in this particular market, the only viable options are over 30, which is bad news for second basemen in general.
also, there is still LF to fill.
Damon’s still there next year.
Right, how dumb of me to think someone could move from a more demanding IF position to a lesser one.
You think it’s that easy to go from SS to second? It’s a completely different position because it’s on the other side of the infield. At the major league level, 2nd base and SS are not interchangeable. Jose Reyes, a much better defensive player than Jeter couldn’t do it. In fact I can’t think of many who have (Mark Loretta? Kaz Matsui). Must be because it’s such a good idea.
Right, how dumb of me to think someone could move from a more demanding IF position to a lesser one.
It has nothing to do with which position is more demanding. Learning a new position (particularly IF) doesn’t just happen overnight. Plus, what makes you think Jeter will move to 2nd for anyone? If he didn’t do it for A-Rod, he’s not doing it for some obviously lesser talented player.
We already have a very good fielding 2B who happens to be a pretty damn good left handed hitter. Trading him for a two month SP rental and an OFer that has promise but is not a sure thing just yet makes no sense right now.
Wow… Cano for Kemp and Lowe. No, but interesting.
We have to think about FAs too. Will there be corner OF bats available on the market? Will there be FA second basemen? Actually, somebody mentioned Ellis and O. Hudson… neither of those guys is young anymore, right? Neither hits much, though they are good defensively. Either is a downgrade from Cano.
What do you guys think a fair trade package of prospects for just Kemp would look like?
Right, how dumb of me to think someone could move from a more demanding IF position to a lesser one.
The old adage is if you have the range you play second, if you have the arm you play third, if you have both you play short. Though some have question Jeter’s accuracy to first, his arm has never really been an issue, it has been range. If you feel he has the range to play second, keep him at SS, since he has the arm. If you don’t, why move him to second?
If they’re going to trade Cano to the Dodgers for Kemp, that’s fine. As long as they get Russel Martin or Loney back too
“Unfortunately, I don’t think Cano will ever top 2006.”
I disagree with you SG. And frankly I am surprised you have this stance. Cano might not post a .340+ BA for the rest of his career but he can have many years of .315+ with 25 HR power better OBP and improved defense. So I definitely do not think 2006 will be canos best year.
Cano will not be traded nor will Jeter. Merely suggesting jeter is going to be traded is a waste of keystrokes. He is at SS for atleast 2 more seasons (like it or not) and will not have the tools to make the switch to CF. Maybe a corner outfield spot but more likely a 1B move.
“It has nothing to do with which position is more demanding. Learning a new position (particularly IF) doesn’t just happen overnight.”
That’s what spring training is for.
“Plus, what makes you think Jeter will move to 2nd for anyone? If he didn’t do it for A-Rod, he’s not doing it for some obviously lesser talented player.”
That was four years ago. And Jeter is not the manager. And he should have been moved back then, thank you very much Cash and Torre.
“We already have a very good fielding 2B who happens to be a pretty damn good left handed hitter. Trading him for a two month SP rental and an OFer that has promise but is not a sure thing just yet makes no sense right now.”
The trade is definitley debatable, especially from a defensive value standpoint, but I wouldn’t characterize Kemp as “not a sure thing” after seeing how awful Cano’s first half was.
Anything that involves moving Jeter over is silly because it just pushes the concern over in the infield. He moves to 2B, who moves to SS? Arod, ok. Now who’s at 3rd? No matter which way you slice it, even if the impossible happened(Jeter accepted the move), it wouldn’t solve anything. Unless we have SS or 3B prospects banging on the door. Cano is too valuable right now.
This isn’t going to happen.
“You think it’s that easy to go from SS to second? It’s a completely different position because it’s on the other side of the infield. At the major league level, 2nd base and SS are not interchangeable. Jose Reyes, a much better defensive player than Jeter couldn’t do it. In fact I can’t think of many who have (Mark Loretta? Kaz Matsui). Must be because it’s such a good idea.”
How do you argue in favor of Jeter remaining at SS for another season while simultaneously arguing against his ability to move to a less demanding position? This is profoundly stupid.
What do you guys think a fair trade package of prospects for just Kemp would look like?
Fair as in has a chance and we’d be willing to do? Hmm…Abreu+Gonzalez (assuming Heyman’s rumor wasn’t made up)+[Kennedy/McCutchen/?] I don’t know if the Dodgers would like a LH bat, but believe it or not Abreu has hit a little better than Kemp (just using OPS+ 111 vs. 107). Torre would probably pull for Abreu as well. So the Dodgers get their (perceived) offensive improvement, and the defender they are looking for, and a pitching prospect. I’d like the Yankees to get something else back as well. Lowe if the Dodgers really just want to dump him, or a prospect somewhere in their system.
Might be a little crazy, but if the Dodgers are really looking for a bat for this year, Abreu’s the only one I’d really be willing to part with, that could help them this year.
Now who’s at 3rd?
No, who’s on first. On third? I don’t know.
“Anything that involves moving Jeter over is silly because it just pushes the concern over in the infield. He moves to 2B, who moves to SS? Arod, ok. Now who’s at 3rd? No matter which way you slice it, even if the impossible happened(Jeter accepted the move), it wouldn’t solve anything. Unless we have SS or 3B prospects banging on the door. Cano is too valuable right now.”
In the context of the trade that’s a valid point. In a vacuum, however, moving Jeter from a more important and more difficult position to a lesser one makes a ton of sense. I’d imagine he’d still be a below average fielder at 2b, but he’d be hurting the team less.
I’m not sure who it was, but it’s been openly speculated that switching Cano and Jeter was a good idea.
That’s what spring training is for.
What makes you think that’s enough time to develop the instincts to play that position everyday? And why do you think teaching an old ballplayer to play a new position when he’s already playing his old position fine is a good idea? If he can’t play SS, he can’t play second. If he can play SS, it’s a waste of resources to play him at second. At least there are real players available at second this offseason. SS is Furcal and a bunch of backups.
And he should have been moved back then, thank you very much Cash and Torre.
That’s clearly not true. A-rod has turned into a better hitter now that he can add bulk and is working on what could be his 3rd MVP season in 4 years. Outside of 2007, Jeter has been roughly average defensively at SS, and turned in a an MVP year in 06. This year, he’s been at least average defensively and is probably going to be two wins above average at SS at an age where most SS are retired or utility guys. As it turns out, it was the right move for making the team better.
“Anything that involves moving Jeter over is silly because it just pushes the concern over in the infield. He moves to 2B, who moves to SS? Arod, ok. Now who’s at 3rd? No matter which way you slice it, even if the impossible happened(Jeter accepted the move), it wouldn’t solve anything. Unless we have SS or 3B prospects banging on the door. Cano is too valuable right now.”
In the context of the trade that’s a valid point. In a vacuum, however, moving Jeter from a more important and more difficult position to a lesser one makes a ton of sense. I’d imagine he’d still be a below average fielder at 2b, but he’d be hurting the team less.
I’m not sure who it was, but it’s been openly speculated that switching Cano and Jeter was a good idea.
It’s easier to stay at a position you know the ins and outs of than to move to a new one. Regardless of the difficulty of the new position. At least at SS Jeter RARELY makes a bonehead mental play. His deficiencies are physical. At 2B he’d have the lack of range as WELL as more potential for mental errors. I really don’t see your argument.
Either way CP’s comment was not profoundly stupid by any stretch. at worst it’s up for debate.
Predictions for tomorrow’s game (because Cano isn’t going to be traded/Jeter is not changing position and the subject needs to be changed):
Joba: 7.2IP, 0H, 0BB, 0ER, 12K, 2HBP, W.
Girardi post-game quote: It’s a shame Joba had to leave his no-hit shutout after only 8 innings, but since he put Yukilis in the hospital in the 2nd inning, I thought the right thing to do would be to hit Varitek so he could have some company.
A-Rod: Joba is a really special talent, to be able to put 2 dueche bags in the hospital in the same game… it’s just amazing.
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