Can Greinke get his ERA under 2?  Pedro looks to have done that twice over a full season, almost three times.

Seven scoreless innings would get him to 1.99.

How sad is it that your team only has a 52% probability of winning a game started by the guy with a clear lead in the Cy Young race?  I know it’s on the road, but still.

I was impressed that Greinke got them above 50%..

At least Molina at DH (hitting 9th) was a one-time thing.  Jacobs has a .692 OPS (83 OPS+) and they purposely put him at DH (hitting 4th-6th) a majority of the time.

If the Tigers are to win the Central, it better be today because the worst possibility is a Verlander/Pettitte matchup in Game 5 rather than Verlander/CC in both games 1 and 4.

Uh, I’d rather see Verlander in games 2 and 5 than 1 and 4.  Probably foolishly, but I don’t think the series goes 5 games unless Verlander starts 2 of the first 4.  And even then, I like the Yanks’ chances of finishing it early.

I’m hesitant about rooting for the Twins to win the central.  However, I would love for the race to come down to the last day, so I am definitely rooting for them to win today and for Detroit to lose.
But I worry about playing Minn next week notwithstanding the Yankees success against them in the postseason.

There was a spirited if not very productive comment thread at RAB about Molina vs Po re OPS against, one person noting that the former is better for each starter, but not responding to the counterpoint that one needs to look at what teams were batting when etc.  Anyway, it might be worth a competent (re)look, since Molina might catch AJ if one reads the tea leaves that way.

[8] - I’m with you, I think I’d rather Detroit won the Central.  But a play-off on Tuesday would be A-OK with me.

What’s the pro-Detroit case?  Avoid the hot team?  The Twins don’t have Verlander or Morneau.  Not that Detroit worries me, but do we lose 36% of the time against the Twins?  Maybe SG will do the lady too.

I think for me its that Minnesota has more consistent quality in their starting pitchers.  Detroit has Verlander and an Edwin Jackson that hasn’t been good for a few months.  I dunno, it also seems like Minnesota is a bit better on offense overall, although Miguel Cabrera could go nuts at any time.

What are the start times for tomorrow’s Det and Min games? If they are still seperated by one game does Det get to see the outcome of the Twins game tomorrow then play later? And how does Trey Hillman’s hemp necklace figure into all this?

[8] - I’m with you, I think I’d rather Detroit won the Central.  But a play-off on Tuesday would be A-OK with me.

Agreed.  Aside from burning a starter for both teams as well as potentially using up relievers, a playoff game is tons of fun for us baseball fans.

I dunno, it also seems like Minnesota is a bit better on offense overall, although Miguel Cabrera could go nuts at any time.

I think the Twins have been much better than Detroit offensively this season.  The Tigers have been below league average in OPS+, whereas the Twins are second only to the Yankees this season.

And the MVP gives the Twins a 1-0 lead with a single.

[13] - Detroit kicks off an hour before the Twins game, so they can’t make a decision after the fact.

We’re starting two LHP, so the teams’ platoon splits must be relevant.  Also the Twins don’t have Morneau so that needs to be compensated for when looking at season OPS.

If one believes the fielding/closer/I forget post-season success analysis that’s presumably also part of the assessment.

If its the Twins we have Coke who can neutralize Mauer and Morneau the way Jeff Nelson used to neutralize Frank Thomas, or not.  Isn’t it about time they take Greinke out?

Yeah, I really wanted Greinke to go 7 scoreless, then come out and have the Twins score a run in the 8th.

It actually appears the Tigers start an hour before the Twins tomorrow afternoon. I think the best case is one game differential heading into tomorrow. Tigers decide to save Verlander as the worst case is a one game playoff in which they could use him. Then the one game playoff happens and the Tigers use Verlander on Tuesday.

4-0 Twins.

If its the Twins we have Coke who can neutralize Mauer and Morneau

Can he????

Maybe Marte could neutralize Mauer. If not, Bruney could (4 pitch BB)

I just really hope Greinke’s ERA+ is still at or better than 200.

Amazing.  Looking good.

[11]
Rilke, I know what you meant, but I can’t help reading what you wrote.
I mean, I want SG to be happy as much as the next RLYW participant, but it’s really none of our business.

[18] Bad Farnsworth could neutralize Morneau.

[25] I don’t know what he’s into though.  Maybe he’d be taking one for the commentariat.

That was a SHOT by Gordon. Wow.

Rilke is now being ignored.
I did not do that.
Please bring him out of the shadow.

Actually, Kubel and Cuddyer are pretty good hitters that you guys seem not be too worried about. I used to watch these two guys (and Mauer) hit in the Frontier Field. Fun times.

The other guy I thought would be good, but didn’t quite pan out was Michael Restovich. Still, the Twins have some good hitters.

Ah, there you are.
“Commentariat” made me laugh, btw.

No loss for Greinke.

And there goes the lead.  Shoot.

What are the odds The Farns make an appearance today?

Twinkies lead of course beware of the you might get what you wish for mantra.

The one thing that is not making me root for the Twins today is the overt homerism of the Fox guys (one of them being Blyleven).

Wow.  Hell of a game.  But depressing rather than elating for both sides.

Still, with a tie score in a late inning, one would give the team of the infinite shelf life the greater chance of emerging victorious.

Whatta catch

I haven’t looked at the Twins yet to see if they’re better than the Tigers or not, but I don’t think we’re necessarily rooting for one opponent or the other, we’re just rooting for it to hopefully go to a playoff game and lead to a fatigued first round opponent, whomever it is.  I actually think the Twins are probably a little better overall than Detroit because of their offense and bullpen, and a deeper rotation 2-4, but I’ll need to actually sit down and look at the rosters and their projections and I don’t think I’ll be doing that until Monday at the earliest(if necessary).

And if any readers want to provide me with ladies, feel free.

Justin you’re pitching tomorrow

I would get irrationally nervous playing a team we swept during the regular season but I did not want to play the Tigers a fiver with Verlander going twice for sure.  A playoff would be the best of course.

I would get irrationally nervous playing a team we swept during the regular season but I did not want to play the Tigers a fiver with Verlander going twice for sure.

No offense, but can you present me with a scenario where you are NOT irrationally nervous?

Playing Boston I would be rationally nervous-they’re good.  We should beat Minny or Detroit.

[41]
How about in those cases where nervousness is actually justified?

How many scoreless innings would be required to get Pettitte’s ERA under 4?

Verlander is not going to pitch 2 games for sure.  That’s only if the Yankees fail to win 3 of the first 4.  I like their odds of doing that.

How about in those cases where nervousness is actually justified?

That would fall under something like [42], rational nervousness.

How many scoreless innings would be required to get Pettitte’s ERA under 4?

Six scoreless would get him to 3.99, which means he’s probably going to give up 10 runs in two innings.

[43] - 8.2 IP of scoreless ball would do it.

DaPuj, that’s an excellent point - SG, is it easy to run the probability of NY winning in 4 rather than 5?

Hmm, I screwed up my math somehow.  Stupid me.

Subtraction was my problem.  The easiest part of the calculation.

[45]
Rational nervousness - of course, SG.  I was just late pressing the button and our mr. alou-bop beat me to it.

SG, is it easy to run the probability of NY winning in 4 rather than 5?

It should be, but it’s probably not very useful to do it until we know the pitching matchups.