The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Royals (64-94) @ Yankees (102-56), Wednesday, September 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Mismatch Chatter**

KC: Robinson G Tejeda (27, RHP, 4-2, 3.41 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.6 WAR) vs NYY: Joba L Chamberlain (23, RHP, 9-6, 4.72 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 0.6 WAR)

Lineups
Kansas City Royals
Mitch Maier, LF (.249/.333/.342, 0.2 WAR)
Tug Hulett, 2B (.071/.071/.071, -0.3 WAR)
Billy Butler, 1B (.304/.364/.500, 1.3 WAR)
Brayan Pena, DH (.268/.310/.451, 0.0 WAR)
Alberto Callaspo, 3B (.299/.356/.453, 1.9 WAR)
Mark Teahen, RF (.269/.322/.407, -0.4 WAR)
John Buck, C (.236/.289/.466, -0.4 WAR)
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS (.246/.269/.353, -2.8 WAR)
Josh Anderson, CF (.236/.271/.301, -0.7 WAR)
Total,  (.270/.322/.413, -1.2 WAR)

1898 St. Louis Browns
Derek Jeter, SS (.333/.402/.461, 5.5 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.281/.364/.489, 3.0 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.295/.385/.573, 4.9 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.286/.404/.523, 3.3 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.278/.371/.518, 2.1 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.290/.369/.534, 1.6 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.322/.352/.525, 0.0 WAR 3.5 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.250/.368/.496, 2.9 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.273/.333/.418, 0.9 WAR)
Total,  (.292/.373/.504, 24.2 WAR)

Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%

I hope everyone is enjoying the 2009 season as much as I am, but there’s something at stake today that has major ramifications in 2010.  The Yankees are 102 and 56, but their Pythagenpat record is only 95-63.  When planning for 2010, we need to assess wins and losses compared to how good the team really is, and Pythagenpat would be a better thing to use than actual record.  With Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui coming off the books, the Yankees are going to be about six wins worse next year right off the bat.  Six wins from a 102 win team still leaves you with a 96 win team.  But if the Yankees are actually really a 95 win team, those six wins means they would be an 89 win team and would likely miss the playoffs.

The Yankees can secure their playoff spot for next year by winning the rest of the games this year by large margins and getting their Pythagenpat record as high as they can.  That makes every game during the rest of this season very important.  Starting with tonight’s game.

It’s been a series of very difficult games for the Yankees of late, and tonight is no exception.  Robinson Tejeda is having a very strong year for Kansas City, although it’s mostly been as a reliever.  He’s allowed just 39 hits in 68.2 innings and has struck out 82 batters.  Over the last 28 days, opponents have hit .121/.259/.187 against him.  Opposing him is Joba Chamberlain, who has allowed a line of .300/.360/.550 over the last 28 days.  Assuming both pitchers face 27 batters in a game, we would expect Tejeda to allow 1.3 runs and Chamberlain to allow 5.3 runs.

So basically, the Yankees are starting the game down by four runs.  Maybe they’ll get lucky and Yuniesky Betancourt will boot a few routine grounders and Kyle Farnsworth will pitch again and the Yanks can pilfer a 6-5 win.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:15 pm by SG / 272 Comments | - (204)

Comments

Page 1 of 3 pages:  1 2 3 >

A sub-replacement level lineup is pretty embarrassing..

Uh, Cano 0.0 WAR ?

SG, your intros are just brilliant.  seriously.

Tug Hulett?  Really?

[4] That’s what she said.

Wow, it looks like YuBet is a great LVP candidate. Has he compiled this much suck playing only for the Royals, or has it been accumulated over the whole season?

Uh, Cano 0.0 WAR ?

He doesn’t hit with RISP, so all of his offensive contributions are worthless.

Brayan Pena? Oh shit. Watch out MO.

[7] That’s a damned lie, and it’s misleading, to boot.

He doesn’t his with any baserunners at all.

Gaaaahd.

[6] - Fangraphs thinks he’s the LVP.  Click WAR to sort in reverse order.

[9] When we looked at this a while ago he was a monster with just a man at first - maybe he was taking advantage of the 1b holding the runner.

Sorry, spreadsheet error on Cano.  He’s at 3.5 WAR.

[11] Cano would be the best hitter of all time if he could only lead off innings. he’s hitting something like .425/.450/.780 to begin an inning.

[10] Amusingly, they’ve got Ross Ohlendorf at 1.0 WAR as a pitcher and -1.1 as a batter (if I understand correctly).

I’m now inexplicably confident when Cano hits with men on base.

Tug Hulett?  Really?

Walking him, Joba? Really?

[16] It’s called the phenomenon of recency. Also our reverse jinxing mojo is a major juggernaut right now.

Give him time. He’ll revert.

Kay thinks Joba is getting squeezed. Now he’s unlucky with BABIP.

Back to back walks to ANY two Royals is totally unacceptable.  This is why Joba is so frustrating.

[19] Ball 3 to Butler was clearly in the zone.  Strike one was maybe a tad off the corner or a hair high though.

Jeter with a bomb.

[21] - I’m wary of the gameday strikezone on the top and bottom.  Mostly because I’m unsure how it’s set.

Cano makes a WR-like catch.

Not watching, is this bad Joba? 5 baserunners in 1.1 seems pretty atrocious.

Awesome B/S ratio, Joba.  Way to “battle” for that postseason roster spot, particularly against a below replacement level ball club.

So yeah, I’m thinking the longer series is the right move…

Not watching, is this bad Joba? 5 baserunners in 1.1 seems pretty atrocious.

Fastball’s not fast today.  Sitting around 91.  That’s not going to get it done.

Joba seems to be working at a “stately” pace, unlike the other night when it was pitch, pitch, pitch.

Dunno if this is him staring off signs or what. Looks like the Royals batters are slowing down the pace, too.

I think the less time Joba has to think about his next pitch, the better he does.

Fastball’s not fast today.  Sitting around 91.  That’s not going to get it done.

Flaherty and Kay just made mention of this.  I think this is purely a mechanical issue given how much his average velocity varies game to game.  His bad command is likely also a result of mechanical issues.

“I think the less time Joba has to think about his next pitch, the better he does.”

But that works as well v.v.

Sometimes, I think I love this team so much that nothing can get me down…and then Joba starts.

FWIW, gameday had the last fb at 95.

Toronto pounding Wakefield.  Is he under contract next season?

If you are feeling down, check the Boston game. While whatever the lineup does wouldn´t matter, the performance of Wakefield shows the amazing depth of the Boston rotation.

What is up with Waldling’s crush on Matsui?  They’re going on an on about how many RBi he has in so many fewer ABs than “everyone else in the lineup”.  Meanwhile Posada’s at the plate and I seem to remember ARod missing April.

Shhh.

Jonathan, I agree that the problem w/Joba is likely mechanical and I’d further venture to guess- POOMA style- that Joba came into the season out of shape after drinking like a drunken Indian in Nebraska in the off-season.  Good mechanics are largely derived from leg strength.

Wakefield has a standing club option for 4million every year, until the Sox decide to decline it. It is by far the most frindly discount a player has ever given a team.

[39] If I may, sir, you are an idiot. And not because you may think Joba drank or did not drank in the offseason.

[41] I was unsure on how to respond to [39]. That sums it up quite nicely.

Cone thinks Joba’s problem is both physical and mechanical. I agree.

Please don’t feed the troll.

That is all.

Pags:  That’s at least the second remark you’ve made on this board regarding Joba’s ethnicity that many people will find rather disgustingly racist.  I’m asking you politely: please stop.

Pavano getting rocked by Detroit. So much for his dominance of the Tigers. Hard as I might try, I don’t think I could ever pull for that guy. But I really want Detroit to have to play it out down to the last weekend, at least.

So if Boston loses tonight would that be 6 straight losses? And if the Yanks won that would be an 11.5 game lead? Sweet!

Jayzus Pags???? I know you’re not an idiot but I fear you are an asshole.
Sorry Pin. I tend to feed the strays.

[43] I think its Flaherty on the YES broadcast. Are you getting Cone somewhere else ?

How’s it feel being 29, Thurm?

Can someone give me a reason to NOT ban PagRags?

[48] I can’t imagine anyone ever mixing up Flaherty and Cone.

[43] I think its Flaherty on the YES broadcast. Are you getting Cone somewhere else ?

Maybe Rich and David are friends.  And if so, can you introduce me to Coney, Rich?

[50] ...chirp….chirp…chirp

[50] I can’t remember reading any positive contributions to the discussion from him.

Oh, wait, “NOT”.  Got me there.  Well, he might sign in under a name I don’t have ignored.

[50] Can we think of this as a teaching moment?

[49] I liked better back in 88. How ya been lad? Hope to be digging in for a long post season.
[50] ummm- he likes the yankees? (weak)

[48] Yes, he was recently on ESPN 1050 and said that he thought the drop in velocity has probably been the result of not having fully regained arm strength from the shoulder injury last season (he said it takes time, but should return by next season), and a mechanical issue (the hitch that Eiland has tried to fix).

[52] Not yet. wink

“Can we think of this as a teaching moment?”

Who’s learning in your scenario?

Damn PagsRags, you got yourself in quite a bit of corner there. Call A-Rod asshole or whatever, that is one thing. Did you really need to bring in Joba’s ethnicity?

Anyway, I humbly propose not banning him, not because I endorse his views, but because I trust this site so much to police itself adequately. After all, he is a Yankee fan, and his such outbursts are not very regular.

Now, if he does that with increasing frequency, sign me up.

It is very pleasing to me that the RS clinching comes amidst a sweep at home by the Jays.

Wakefield done after 3 innings, 5 runs. Probably done for the season and maybe his carrer. Sox or not, he was a class act and an interesting player. And he turned me into a Yankee fan (well, Aaron Boone did his part too).

Wow, so P.C.  Lighten up- he did get a DWI so you know there was at least one night he drank too much…

[57] Whew. I thought there might be some ultra secret non-Kay, non-Flash YES broadcast on another cable feed that I coulda been watching.

[62] Stop digging.

Ball 2 to Jeter was a clear strike.  I don’t understand umpires.

[65] [Insert typical gameday comment]

The answer is: No, we cannot think of this as a teaching moment.

I’m sorry for calling Joba a drunk Indian…Native American.  He is a drunk Nebraskan who looked chunky on the YES spring training special that followed Andy Pettitte.  I think he was out of shape but my conviction level is low- 99% POOMA, as I said.

In other news, Roman Polanski is a rapist.

I thought [39] was funny. Very wrong, but I don’t mind faux pas.

Are the AAAA lineup still batting.

[50] Well…this is also weak…but I have to admit that I have wondered about Joba and drinking or at least speculated, also POOMA style, that maybe he hasn’t been taking care of himself as he probably should. But my suspicion stems from the fact that Joba, himself, has sort of admitted that drinking and depression has been a problem for him at times. And it has to be said that Joba does have a history of addiction in his family. But it is very much worth noting that it is the NON Native-American half of his family that has a history of drug problems.

Anyway, it is probably a waste of time to guess about his drinking habits, but obviously a complete waste of time to talk about his ethnicity. So, Pags, even if no one was being at all “PC,” we still would think you were wasting space on the page and distracting us from more important things: like calling Carl Pavano and Kyle Farnsworth pussies.

If the Yankees were going to court football so hard, why didn’t they build a better stadium.

Wow, so P.C.  Lighten up- he did get a DWI so you know there was at least one night he drank too muc

I’m sorry for calling Joba a drunk Indian…Native American.

FYI, taking the stand in your own defense isn’t helping your case.

[70] Misogynist!

Alright Joba, you have got our guy, Tug Hulett. Let this ball not leave the infield and an out made in the process without a run being scored. You are being graded today on the basis of this one AB.

There’s a reason for the 5th amendment.

OT- Thank you guys for the birthday well-wishes. I am very fond of all a yiz.
I would love to host a World Series we won BBQ. I have a big backyard.
Kegger of Dogfish Froggo. 60 people tops. Pags- park the cars?

[74] And, I give thee a solid A-. Three pitch K would have gotten a straight A.

Followed by the 4 pitch walk.  Nice.

[69] Once, maybe, but twice with the same stereotype. IIRC the exact words in the first time were drunken little indian. These are tantamount to stupid little negro or lazy little mexican. Hardly just a faux pas.

[78] I think that was of a non-intentional intentional variety. It is Billy Butler, after all.

Come on Joba.

Thurm, only if you have Fat Tire and a wooden Indian…and if The Frog brings one of his students so I can sleep with them like he does…

In other new, Football at Yankee Stadium is a great idea, as is boxing.  UFC should be the next big announcement as it dwarfs boxing now…

Where’s Joba’s velo?

Thurm, you know I’d be there.  You’re what, like 40 minutes from me?  I’ll have my better half make a sourdough bread dip and, if you’re lucky, my old man will make me lasagna to bring.

Boos? Seriously?

The booing fans should just kill themselves.

I fucking hate Yankee fans.

Joba sucked tonight - no other way to put it. 
I look forward to his 2010 season when his fully healed shoulder and retooled mechanics will be on full display.

That was very disappointing. it’s going to be hard to hand over the ball to Joba if they make it as far as the ALCS

I don’t know if Jonathan is being cheeky but I agree with him. We really should have expected Joba to need a year.

[76] This will keep me smiling all throughout the Thai dinner I’m about to go have with an ex.  I am so there.

Brazil: you are projecting your own stereotype there- take a look for the word “little” in the record- no such thing.  You obviously are overly concerned with ethnicity…

Aceves, really?

I don’t know if Jonathan is being cheeky but I agree with him. We really should have expected Joba to need a year.

No cheek.  I was being serious.  I think next year we will see a completely different Joba.

Also, I swear to god that Joba has had shit luck on ground balls.

it would be annoying if Girardi gave Chamberlain the ball in a potential game 4 situation.  with gaudin, I’d at least like the odds that he’d give me 13-18 outs of 2 or 3 run ball.  chamberlain’s not at the point where he can face a real lineup.  hope he works hard over the offseason and fully recovers

I dont know John. He looked good against Boston’s A lineup.

For once I agree with Flaherty. Let’s see how Joba looks for an inning in relief, if needed, in the ALDS.

I dont know John. He looked good against Boston’s A lineup.

Maybe cone is on the money - it’s a mixture of mechanics and mental.  I certainly see the mechanical issues.  The mental ones I can understand given what he’s gone through.

“Let’s see how Joba looks for an inning in relief”

Holy SSS.

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