The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, June 22, 2007

Rocky Mountain Low (HAHAHAHA!  I’m so clever, I should write headlines for the Post!)

In two weeks the Yankees completely turned their season around.  They gained 7 games on the Red Sox, climbed for being dead last to being right in the thick of the playoff race.

In three days they undid most of that.

There’s nothing horrible about losing to the Rockies, or even losing a series to them.  They’re not a bad team, and they’ve been very hot lately.  The Yankees’ sin wasn’t even in being swept, it was the way they looked in getting swept.

On the mound, there wasn’t much they did wrong, with one notable exception.  Against a solid Rockies lineup, Mussina pitched very well and Clemens pitched okay, if inefficiently.  Pettitte was doing fine for a while, but by his own admission, he “stopped pitching” after giving up the long homer to Holliday.  Considering that made the score a whopping 2-1, Pettitte’s admission is shocking and completely unacceptable.  To me, this is far, far worse than anything Jason Giambi did in the past—he gave up on the team when they needed him the most.

Putting that aside, what really killed the team was the complete lack of offense.

So far this season, the pitchers they faced this series have allowed opponents (including the Yankees in this series) a line of .266/.325/.410 (this line is weighted by batters faced in the series for each pitcher).  That would be what an “average” lineup would be expected to do against the Rockies.  Well, not quite, as the pitchers may have faced above-average lineups, or perhaps below-average lineups.  Since they play in the NL, it’s more likely they’re facing below average lineups.

The Yankees, one figures, have a definitely above-average lineup—AND this series was played in Coors Field, which despite the humidor is still a fairly extreme hitters’ park.  You’d expect them to have out-done that line, but instead they had a .216/.252/.330 line for the series—distinctly BELOW that line.

There are several reasons why this may have happened.  Perhaps the team was unprepared to hit at altitude—maybe they expected it to be easy, and didn’t focus as much as they should.  Perhaps everyone just cooled off at the same time after the extended hot streak.  Maybe the Rockies had a spectacular scouting report on the team—and executed it perfectly.  Regardless of why, the fact is that the Yankees absolutely should have hit better than they did the last three days—probably a lot better.  Should they have won the series?  Maybe, maybe not, but they definitely should have won one of the games—probably Tuesday’s.

So in the last six days the Yankees dropped 3 games to the Red Sox and Tigers, pushing them back to the brink.  They’re not “done” in either race, but they went from being in a position where they could make it to the playoffs just by playing well the rest of the way and back to where they either need to play exceptionally well the rest of the way, or have another two-week stretch similar to the one they just had.

Three days ago the Yankees could wait on their problems.  They didn’t need to get a first baseman, or another outfielder.  Maybe they could use one for the stretch, but there was no sense of urgency.  Now with Damon clearly hurting and the team sliding out of contention, a sense of urgency has arisen.  The A’s designated Milton Bradley for assignment, and despite “attitude problems”, he would be a nearly perfect fit for the team’s needs.  The team could put Damon the DL (it’s ridiculous that they haven’t yet—who the hell cares that he’s never been on the DL.  That’s a vanity streak—if you’ve gotta go on the DL, go on the damn DL), and Bradley could take over CF.  When Damon comes back, the team could push an OF to the DH spot, and they could play Damon at first.  At season’s end, Bradley is a free agent, so it wouldn’t lock them into anything next season—and it wouldn’t preclude them from getting a first baseman.

Now, Bradley wouldn’t have saved the team this week, and neither would Dunn or a healthy Teixeira.  This failure was a team failure, but the point of improving your roster isn’t to fix what cost you past games—which are already lost—it’s to increase your chances to win future games.

At this point, the team needs to look for upgrades everywhere.  Even if they’ve got a good player somewhere, they need to look to see if they can be better.  If they’re going to make up 7 games and make the playoffs, they almost need to have a “superteam”.  Miguel Cairo isn’t remotely close to being an acceptable option at first now, and neither is Andy Phillips (as much as he deserves a chance).  I like Melky, but if they can get a better outfielder, they really should go for it.  If they can get Dunn or Teixeira without giving up Hughes, I’d almost say that they need to do it, at least if they want to make it to October.

They could win 9 in a row again, which would render all that moot again, but you can’t count on that.  This weekend, which looked last week like an opportunity to gain ground on Boston, is now a pivotal series for the team.  They have to show up to play, they need to win, they need to look good doing it.  It’s amazing how quickly the good feelings went away.  They need to get them back just as quickly.

--Posted at 1:57 am by Larry Mahnken / 27 Comments | No Trackbacks - (688)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Joba has to be untouchable too.

Pettitte was doing fine for a while, but by his own admission, he “stopped pitching” after giving up the long homer to Holliday.

Can I have a link to the article where he made that quote please?  You seem to be taking as he “gave up”, while with just those two words, I would take it more as he lost focus and wasn’t making his pitches.  I’d just be curios about the whole article/quote to make sure nothing is taken out of context.

Joba has to be untouchable too

There’s no such thing as untouchable.  If the Twins offered Santana for Hughes even (obviously Yanks would through more players in), I think the Yankees should consider the trade seriously.  But yeah, Joba has to be on that “it must be a perfect trade” list, as does Tabata.

Would Bradley really be an upgrade over Melky?
Just a quick glance at stats, without any deep analysis… Bradley seems to have slightly more power but that’s about it.  To my eye not necessarily that much better defensively.

Just wonderin’.

Of course having BOTH Bradley and Melky in the outfield would be a big improvement defensively.  I guess moving Matsui to DH if possible.  That would be an improvement.

But if it’s getting Bradley to play instead of Cabrera, I’m not so sure it’s that much of an improvement.  But I could be wrong.

Uh… Milton Bradley has consistently been 20% above average offensively the past five seasons.  Melky is below average offensively.  Bradley is above average defensively.

He would be a huge improvement.

but by his own admission, he “stopped pitching” after giving up the long homer to Holliday.  Considering that made the score a whopping 2-1, Pettitte’s admission is shocking and completely unacceptable.  To me, this is far, far worse than anything Jason Giambi did in the past—he gave up on the team when they needed him the most.

Larry, you’re taking that WAY out of context. Pettitte’s quote was that he “stopped pitching” insofar as he abandoned his previous game plan and started just “throwing.” Look at the extended quote:

“I quit throwing my changeup, my sinker cut a couple of times and I didn’t throw my sinker.

“I didn’t throw the ball on both sides of the plate like I should have. When you do that, you make yourself vulnerable to get a lot of hits off you. … Man, I just can’t let that happen and I did and it cost us in a big way tonight.”

That’s a mental mistake, and one that either he, Posada or Gudiry should have picked up on and fixed but it’s miles away from what you’re implying.

Bradley is an above average hitter. the Yankees desperately need more of those.

this is why the Yankees are probably going to miss the playoffs this year:

the Yankee lineup has FOUR hitters with an OPS+ above 100.  FOUR.

last year, if we count Melky who had an OPS+ of exactly 100, they had EIGHT plus whoever was playing 1B.  and at the end of the year when Sheff and Matsui came back, they had NINE.

for the most part, this is the same team from last year.  taking full years of Matsui and Abreu and replacing Andy Phillips’ 77 OPS+ with the Mientkiewicz/Phelps platoon that should have produced an OPS+ in the 95-100 range, the offense should have been just fine.  so much so that we started the season with a “road to 1000 runs” counter.

injuries like Giambi will happen, and players do decline as they get older, but there is some unbelievable underperforming going on this season.  Damon, Cano, and Abreu have just killed this team.  that’s really all there is to it.  if those guys had all just taken a 10% decline from last year, this team would probably be ok b/c Posada and A-Rod are covering that.  but it’s not a “normal” 10% decline, it’s a huge precipitous drop, and the Yankees are running a very mortal lineup out there because of it.

Larry- I’m also worried about this weekend going into a strange new park. Over the years, the Yanks don’t often acclimate quickly to new parks with new hitters backgrounds. Remember the WS in 01? They couldn’t hit a lick in Arizona, though a younger Shill and Unit factored in. They still can’t hit Mig Batista. I guess it will come down to how they react also to new pitchers they haven’t seen. I’m pretty sure these starters are also foreign to Yankee hitters. It’s going to take some better breaks as well and fewer mental gaffe’s like the captain getting caught off second yesterday. The big thing though is scoring plenty of runs. Most times on the road it’s very hard to win late in close games and particularly hard when your team is on the skids. You have it right that the blame for the Colorado games lies exclusively at the feet of the offense. Bobby A played as if it was May all over again and was central in many situations that could have turned one or more games. He’s got to get the good feeling back somehow. It’s amazing how his performance affects a-Rods.

I’m still upset that this OF/1B BS is still going on. We’ve seen them try to push other position players to first base over the last couple of years and it just doesn’t happen well. You can’t just go play first. No player really wants to be thrown into a position where they are going to embarrass themselves at a foreign position.

Phelps is gone so I won’t say any more, but Cairo and Phillips are a joke. Bradley makes a lot of sense in CF, he is a regular for almost any ML team, and I think the A’s will probably regret this decision. Melky needs to get daily at bats in AAA. he can get on the 40 man later this season.

Actually re: Phelps, this lineup is such a joke. Without Giambi and Damon (that shouldn’t hurt us much) Who going to DH? Basically, with Melky in CF, Cairo at 1B, and Phillips at DH which Torre will probably use at least once this is a mediocre NL lineup.

—Over the years, the Yanks don’t often acclimate quickly to new parks with new hitters backgrounds. Remember the WS in 01?—

Is there something in the actual pinstripes that affect how the players wearing them will hit in new stadiums?  2001 was a different team.

Damon, Cano, and Abreu have just killed this team.  that’s really all there is to it.

I agree with yup 100%.  The Yankees should be looking to plug holes, and doing things like trading for Bradley and DHing Matsui would be a good move.  But really it falls on Cano and Abreu to start playing some consistently good baseball, and both of them have yet to do that this year.

Tonight’s matchup isn’t exactly favorable despite the Vegas price

Tonight’s matchup isn’t exactly favorable despite the Vegas price

But Igawa has a new configured delivery!  He’s going to be the next Sandy Koufax, people. 
I’d take the Yankees at -114 and parlay that with the under of 8.5.  Its likely to be a 3 hit shutout for Igawa. That’s my lock of the year!  Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

My question, is Bradley in the market, and will he lead off?

I don’t think A’s will ask for a lot.  Not having him on the payroll, and a quirky market inefficiency minor leaguer could get it done?

Do the Yankees ever trade with the A’s?  I think the last trade they made was the Jeff Weaver three-way swap in 2002 (Yankees got Weaver, A’s got Lilly and prospects, Tigers got… Carlos Pena and Franklyn German).

They cannot give up Joba either, but apart from that I agree.

Sorry for the duplicate posts. It has been a long day of work.

It’s amazing how the Yankee offense seems to live and die along with Abreu. As noted above, his hitting (or lack thereof) seems to directly impact ARod. Maybe they should move Posada up to the 3 spot. At least he’s been consistent all year. Having Jeter-Posada together would keep the two most consistent hitters back to back.

The Giants have been shut out the last two times Matt Cain has started. Unfortunately I think that streak will end tonight….probably by the second inning.

The big question is, if the sun is shining bright at 7 Pacific, does Igawa break out the shades?

And we should definitely make a play for Bradley, he’s a much better player at this point than Melky. There is an injury-concern, as well as a psycho-concern, but it’s worth it. It’s better than what we have now.

“Tigers got… Carlos Pena and Franklyn German).”

And Jeremy Bonderman.

Abreu last 7 150 320 250

kronic- admittedly most of the roster has turned over since 2001, however Jeter and Posada were on the team as was Bernie who is only recently retired. Fast forward to the interleague series in Cincinnati a couple of years back and that too was rather low scoring. I attended the Milwaukee series in 05 and they didn’t hit until the last game. I also remember the Cubs series in Wrigley in 03 and they hit very poorly throughout that series, though the starters were Zambrano, Wood and Prior.  A year ago in a hitters haven at Philly they hit poorly until the third game. They laid an egg for the most part in Busch stadium and Dodger Stadium in 04, so I think unfamiliarity does play a role.

And Jeremy Bonderman.

Oh that’s right, he was a PTBNL.

Over in Sox land we are of course very hung up on the Damon vs. Coco Crisp comparisons. I’m not sure the Yankees can complain about the signing even when Damon is hurt, since they didn’t have much alternative, but it does seem like that day in the future when the Sox’ failure to resign Damon would stop hurting us is coming sooner than anticipated. Crisp’s .662 OPS is anemic, though it jumps to .800 in June (so far), and his defense is a non-stop highlight reel. Damon’s more like .700 OPS with no range. Neither one can throw. Obviously Coco’s real OPS is somewhere between his slump and streak numbers, and Damon when healthy is more of an offensive spark, but Crisp’s sudden ability to play center field seems to tilt things in his favor. Of course, I don’t know where to find zone ratings and other defensive matrices, so maybe my unempirical assessment is off.

“Of course, I don’t know where to find zone ratings and other defensive matrices, so maybe my unempirical assessment is off.”

I think that the Yankee staff has blown it in regards to Damon. He was playing fine defense when he was healhty. But they were either too dumb or too desperate to DL him, now the injuries have completely drained him of his range, his power, and now it looks like his ability to hit entirely. If they don’t get a guy like Bradley and DL Damon, the season will be sunk and the threat of permanent injury, which is always a risk when a player plays hurt, could potentially make Damon a 11 million dollar a year DH with no hitting ability. Awesome move on the part of the Yankees so far.

Seems like they could give Damon the time off he needs and still milk some solid production out of him over the rest of that contract, but I agree with the sentiment here: if the guy’s been on the verge of the DL all season, and he’s playing way below his norm, then why the fuck would you not put him on the DL? I really don’t understand the Yankees sometimes.

“Considering that made the score a whopping 2-1, Pettitte’s admission is shocking and completely unacceptable.  To me, this is far, far worse than anything Jason Giambi did in the past—he gave up on the team when they needed him the most.”

I am not sure I get what’s going on here Larry.

Are you saying that Andy said he deliberately “stopped pitching”, i.e., admitted he gave up and started throwing cookies? Or did Andy mean that, after assessing his performance, he went away from his strengths during a stressful moment of the game, much the way a batter may swing at a pitch outside the zone during a key AB when he is feeling pressured?

I did not see or hear the interview, so I have no idea, but it seems you are making that case that Andy not only quit on the team, but unabashedly admitted this to a reporter.  I find that hard to believe… can you elaborate on this?
(sorry if this was already covered, but having a newborn at home limits the amount of time I have to read all the posts these days!)

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