if holding the line on Pettitte made ownership comfortable with green-lighting Teixeira, then i will excitedly prepare for the Phil Hughes era.

sorry Andy.

Trade Damon instead.

also, doesn’t this explanation make a lot more sense than the idea that they are haggling with Pettitte over a million bucks or whatever?

ownership has a payroll number in mind for 2009 that they gave Cashman to work with. signing Teixeira took them a little over that number. 

now, in order to improve their offer to Pettitte, they need to shed salary elsewhere.

it’s hard for us to accept this b/c the Yankees have not operated like over the last decade.  they’ve simply raised payroll almost every year. 

but i’d imagine Hal is going to run the team a *little* more like a business than as a hobby, like his father did.  that will still give them the largest payroll by a wide margin, but hopefully without the excess. 

and occasionally it will lead to a hard decision.  right now the decision is Andy Pettitte and no Swisher/Nady (+ whatever they can get back in a trade) vs. Phil Hughes and Swisher/Nady. 

Cameron was the first victim of this.  because there isn’t really much of a baseball reason to not revisit the Cameron trade.  only reason is financial.

if holding the line on Pettitte made ownership comfortable with green-lighting Teixeira, then i will excitedly prepare for the Phil Hughes era.

I agree.  I think it would be useful to have Andy back but not if it caused the Yankees to pass on Teix. Anyone in their right might would much rather have Teix.

*mind

Trade Damon instead

I had a long post when this started that my dog ate (well, he would of if I had a dog).  I think it might be worthwhile to examine the 4 “tradeable” OF candidates and see what they’re “worth” vs. what Pettitte is worth, and then debate what the team could get back in a trade.  E.g. I’d most want to trade Matsui, and I think if we essentially trade Matsui for Pettitte the team is better.  But then there are all the issues in trading Matsui and if it would offer enough salary-relief.

I think my preferred plan would be to head into the season as-is, and listen for trade offers if Pettitte isn’t willing to sign for less.  A couple of months into the season, you start exploring options for trading one of the OFs, most likely for a “veteran” SP with one year left on the contract.  This might not be easy, but you could probably find some team in need of offense who is contending, or work a three-way in which the Yankees send Nady/Swisher/Damon to a team that sends a couple of prospects to a non-contending team that sends a pitcher to the Yanks.  It’s not a slam-dunk, but I’m sure something could be found during the season.

Another alternative would be to work something out with Pettitte where he only gets signed for about half the season at $7-9M.

Matsui I think has a full NTC, Damon has a partial one. Damon probably has value but would probably want an extension before he waived his, which given the economy I’m not sure would happen.

I think Damon and Matsui are pretty much untradable without eating a good chunk of salary, which would defeat the purpose of trading one of them over Nady and Swisher.  Nady and Swisher however could be moved. 

The clear choice out of the two is Nady.  He is average player and don’t their 2008 numbers fool you, Swisher is probably better.  Nady’s value is probably the highest it’s ever going to be while Swisher’s is near bottom.  And Nady is only signed for 1 more year where as Swisher, unless he tanks again this year, is most likely going to occupy one of the corner outfield spots in 2010.

I think Damon and Matsui are pretty much untradable without eating a good chunk of salary, which would defeat the purpose of trading one of them over Nady and Swisher.  Nady and Swisher however could be moved. 

How does it defeat the purpose?  Damon and Matsui are both going to be paid $13M this year.  I think Swisher is around $7M and Nady probably a little less than that.  So if they can trade Matsui and pay $6M of his salary, they get more salary relief than trading Nady.  Matsui for $7M may be more attractive to some teams.

Anyway, just because a player will be HARD to trade doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to do it.  If they can pay $6M of Matsui’s contract and get a C prospect or trade Nady and get a B-, which would you trade?  I’d trade Matsui in a heartbeat.

I love the Clemens-McCready “Underage Affair Scandal” adverts off to the right.  Is everyone getting those, or is it because of my internet habits?

At any rate: lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn lesbian porn

How does it defeat the purpose?  Damon and Matsui are both going to be paid $13M this year.  I think Swisher is around $7M and Nady probably a little less than that.  So if they can trade Matsui and pay $6M of his salary, they get more salary relief than trading Nady.  Matsui for $7M may be more attractive to some teams.

But having Matsui on the team over Nady is worth more than the $1M extra they would save especially since of of the 4 is going to have to DH anyway Matsui’s defense isn’t a liability.

Anyway, just because a player will be HARD to trade doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to do it.  If they can pay $6M of Matsui’s contract and get a C prospect or trade Nady and get a B-, which would you trade?  I’d trade Matsui in a heartbeat.

You only trade the higher talent if you can get more for it.  $1M extra in saving, the downgrade from Matsui to Nady, and a worse prospect?  It’s not even close.  Nady goes.

But having Matsui on the team over Nady is worth more than the $1M extra they would save

how so?

11: Please don’t.  Some of us want to continue wasting time here while pretending to do work.

I’d like to see Matsui gone as well.  Unfortunately he seems to have other plans:

http://www.observer.com/2009/real-estate/godzilla-slugger-matsui-pays-10-5-m-trump-place-penthouse

These players/entertainers/etc. are damned fools- now I know how they end up broke.  This idiot is paying $10.5M for a 2BR in the Trump Building on the WS Highway that the seller paid $4.3M for in 2006!  Forget the fact that this building is nothing special- idiots pay for the Trump name- it isn’t even in a great part of town.  He’s paying for 250% appreciation over 2 yrs- $4000 per square foot- in the biggest real estate blowup of all time that is just starting to hit Manhattan.  I hope this idiot goes broke.

$1M extra in saving, the downgrade from Matsui to Nady, and a worse prospect?  It’s not even close.  Nady goes

right, except your entire premise is based on YOUR assertion that Nady to Matsui is a downgrade.

all of the projections systems that i’ve seen seem to disagree with that assertion.

of course Matsui COULD come back completely healthy and hit like he did a 2-3 years ago, but based on all of the information we have now, Nady projects to be more valuable than Matsui next year.

But having Matsui on the team over Nady is worth more than the $1M extra they would save especially since of of the 4 is going to have to DH anyway Matsui’s defense isn’t a liability.

From this Nady is worth about a half-win more than Matsui.  Having Nady also allows you to rotate the DH spot more often.  E.g. play Damon there since playing the OF every day seems to be starting to wear him down.  Nady is also less likely to be injured - as much as you can predict these things - so that’s better, too.

I can’t see another team taking a flyer on Matsui until he shows he’s healthy - at the least.  Trying to envision a salary dump of Matsui is pretty much a pipe dream.  Why would a team trade for Matsui right now, who projects as a DH if he’s healthy, when a guy like Dunn is still on the market?  If the Yanks trade anyone, it will be one of the other three: Damon, Swisher, Nady.

I’d agree with Frog.  Trade Damon.  His stock is probably the highest and he’s only got one year left.  He can also (theoretically) play two OF positions.  He’d probably bring the most in return.

Swisher’s stock is low and he’s versatile in the field.  His hitting should bounce back.  I’d keep him if I were the Yanks.

Nady is a close second to being tradable.  Maybe he did have a fluke year, but he’s younger and more affordable.  Plus, if you trade Nady, and you lose Matsui and Damon to FA, then you have some big holes in your OF.

I’d agree with Frog.  Trade Damon.  His stock is probably the highest and he’s only got one year left.  He can also (theoretically) play two OF positions.  He’d probably bring the most in return.

I think one of the things we’re doing in this is focusing too much on trading one player.  I’m sure I’m donig it just as much.  I really think Swisher should be off limits - as off limits as any non-core player is anyway - given age, contract, ability, etc.  I’m sure of the other 3, Cashman will probably make it known they are available for the right price, and if you are interested give him a call.  Which is the right way. 

If someone offers a B prospect for Matsui and is willing to take his whole salary - and if Matsui agrees to go to this team - I think it’s a no-brainer.  Likewise, though I want to keep Nady, if someone offers two A prospects, again a no brainer.  And no, I don’t expect either player to get that much, which is why it’s a no-brainer.

And I agree that a trade won’t likely happen until Dunn and Abreu (possibly also Manny) are off the market.  Who says the trade has to be done this month?

Yeah, the corner-OF/bat trade market is going to be quiet for a while.  There are still a number of high-qualityish FA still available, and it still remains to be seen where the prices stabilize at.

of course Matsui COULD come back completely healthy and hit like he did a 2-3 years ago, but based on all of the information we have now, Nady projects to be more valuable than Matsui next year.

He doesn’t even have to do that much.  2008 Matsui over a full season is a better hitter than the typical (read non 2008) season Nady put up in a platoon role over a full season. 

Maybe I’m blinded by the upside but I just don’t see Matsui falling back that far.  When are ZIPS and PECOTA due out?

You also have to consider defense though.  Nady might not be a whiz, but he can play both corners without embarrassing himself or the team.  That flexibility is definitely worth something, and to me probably makes him more valuable to the team than Matsui, right now.  That could all change depending on health of course.

right, except Nady’s 2008 season is the most relevant season when projecting him and you are just dismissing it. 

meanwhile Matsui has played 51, 143, and 93 games over the last 3 years and we are ready to give him credit for a full season in 2009.

I thought I posted this but I don’t see it so I’ll try again.  Chone has Nady and Matsui as basically the same value next year (about 1.5 wins), if you assume Matsui is a “poor” defender and Nady is “average”.

Sorry, Bubba.

If someone offers a B prospect for Matsui and is willing to take his whole salary - and if Matsui agrees to go to this team - I think it’s a no-brainer.

Yes, that would be a no-brainer.  I just don’t see that happening.

And I agree that a trade won’t likely happen until Dunn and Abreu (possibly also Manny) are off the market.  Who says the trade has to be done this month?

I didn’t say the trade would be done this month, or next.  In fact, I don’t think Matsui-related trade talks would start in earnest until he can show he’s healthy.  At the very least, he’ll have to be healthy in spring training.  More likely, he’ll have to play (ie, DH) for a month or two to convince a team to take a flier on him.

As for Damon, I could see a team taking him now, especially a team wanting some speed and acceptable defense at LF - something that Abreu, Dunn and Manny won’t give you.

Plus, Damon only has a limited NTC (AFAIK), so he’s more flexible than Matsui.

Considering Burrell just signed for 8 million, Matsui/Damon et al have way less value than their current contracts.  You have to think Abreu and Dunn are both going to sign for 8mil or less per year and are probably more productive than any of the outfielders we want to trade next year.

right, except Nady’s 2008 season is the most relevant season when projecting him and you are just dismissing it.

That’s what happens when you are sitting on the wrong side of 30 and put up half season that far out of line with everything you’ve done in your entire career before reverting back to your career norms in the 2nd half.

And the reasoning about not selling low on Swisher applies to Matsui.  Nady is the least talented of all 4 of them and his value is the highest it will ever be.  I can see the argument to keeping all 4 for depth but if one needs to go it is clearly Nady.

A stupid GM just signed Raul Ibanez to 3yrs, $30M- there should be a market for 1yr of Matsui or Nady.  Problem is, the way the market is heading nobody will offer them arbititration and hence no draft picks if/when they walk.  We’d have to take some high-paid garbage back in return.  How about Matsui for Andruw Jones’ reworked contract (maybe that can net us $7M or so).  Or maybe Matsui for Schmidt+$7M.  Then you have your #5 and $5M or so off the books.  And since you are now about $25M under last year’s budget you can sign Baldelli for CF ($4M+incentives), or maybe get Manny (and trade Nady, of course).

That’s what happens when you are sitting on the wrong side of 30 and put up half season that far out of line with everything you’ve done in your entire career before reverting back to your career norms in the 2nd half.

i don’t think saying he only had 1/2 of a good season is really accurate:

Nady by month:
April: .337/.388/.538
May: .313/.384/.545
June: .278/.350/.407
July: .364/.404/.636
August:.308/.351/.523
September: .223/.270/.379

Nady’s been on the “wrong side of 30” for less than 2 months.  And I still think you’re ignoring defense.  I don’t completely disagree with your conclusion, but I don’t think it’s “clearly Nady”. And I’m not sure Matsui is in the same “selling low” category as Swisher.  One has a much greater chance of bouncing back, the other might just be old and injured and that’s it.

I would also like tos ee them go into the season with all 4.  Give Damon 3-4 days in LF, maybe one day in CF if you want and if he can hack it, Gardner/Melky the other 6 in CF, Nady 4-5 days in RF, Matsui 4-5 days at DH, fill in Swisher where needed (probably 4-5 starts a week by those numbers).

He’s paying for 250% appreciation over 2 yrs- $4000 per square foot- in the biggest real estate blowup of all time that is just starting to hit Manhattan.  I hope this idiot goes broke.

He won’t have any trouble selling.  Some bigger idiot will pay a premium to own Hideki Matsui’s former digs.  Especially if he throws in some of his lesbian porn collection.

Nady is the least talented of all 4 of them and his value is the highest it will ever be.

Not quite.  His value was the highest it will ever be when the Yankees traded for him.

also, it IS possible that Nady’s 2008 indicates a new talent level.  this could be a result of Nady “learning” to hit RHP over his career and effectively closing his platoon split.  i don’t think this is unheard of, but maybe SG can elaborate.  someone pointed this out on RAB the other day.

from RAB:

Check out the progression Nady has made over the past 5 years, especially vs righties. (The numbers are BA/OBP/SLG/OPS.)

2008
vs R .317 .357 .529 .886
vs L .262 .361 .444 .805

How about Matsui for Andruw Jones’ reworked contract (maybe that can net us $7M or so).

How does that net you anything?  Jones’ reworked contract is still worth $21.1M; the payout is just spread out more.  You’re expecting the Dodgers to take on all of Matsui’s salary and still pay all put $1M of the bonuses and deferred money owed to Jones.  Why on earth would they do that instead of just releasing Jones and signing Dunn for <$13M per year?

i don’t think saying he only had 1/2 of a good season is really accurate

I just looked at his Pit/NYY splits.  He played 89 games for Pit, roughly half a season.  Overall his time in NY he was right on what I think you can reasonably expect from Nady.

And I’m not sure Matsui is in the same “selling low” category as Swisher.  One has a much greater chance of bouncing back, the other might just be old and injured and that’s it.

Even if his value doesn’t have the upside of Swisher his value is still low.

I don’t completely disagree with your conclusion, but I don’t think it’s “clearly Nady”.

Yeah I overstated it a bit.  I’m higher on Matsui (as a DH) than most but even I can see the argument for the other side but I’m just not feeling it.  All the little things (like his immense popularity in Japan) and his offensive upside tip the scale for me.

also, it IS possible that Nady’s 2008 indicates a new talent level.  this could be a result of Nady “learning” to hit RHP over his career and effectively closing his platoon split.  i don’t think this is unheard of, but maybe SG can elaborate.  someone pointed this out on RAB the other day.

from RAB:

Now there is an interesting point.  I knew he hit righties much better this year than in years past but I never saw the progression before.  Also if you look at his splits on the Yankees he was

vs R .290 .339 .515 .854
vs L .203 .266 .356 .622

So the reason for the fall off on the Yankees was because he struggled at something he’s done well his entire career.

The rotation needs Pettitte.  $10 million might be too much, but it’s not unreasonable.  The Steinbrenners need to stop being dicks and sign him.

Hmm.

First, if this report is true, massive kudos for Cashman convincing others to sign Tex.  Though I have to say that if it’s also true that Cash didn’t want to do it until he met the guy… wtf?  You gotta be kidding me.

Second, Pettitte.  I think he’s worth $10MM, and I think all this noise about giving Phil Coke a shot at the rotation and dropping the offer to Andy is negotiation tactics to put pressure on Andy.  Basically, it’s “we’re comfortable with Bubba Crosby as our centerfielder” but slightly more believeable.

Third, Nady:

Wow, I hadn’t seen that split progression before.  I had Nady classified as a clear platoon player (and, given that, figured the appropriate useage was as such, platooning with Swisher and Damon).  Apparently, not over the past 2 seasons, which makes me re-think his value. 

Fourth, trading Nady: why?  I mean, if some team for some reason wants to knock the Yanks socks off with an offer, fine.  Otherwise… he’s the right fielder, no?  It’s Damon-Swisher-Nady with Melky/Gardner as 4th OF or Damon/Nady-Melky/Gardner-Swisher/Nady, right?  I think they need all those guys.  If they could swing a (long term) upgrade in CF by trading Nady, ok.  Otherwise… I don’t really get it.

Rob:  Cashman has made repeated remarks to the effect that the Yankees don’t want to use Swisher in CF, and the team demonstrated last year that it is unwilling to use Damon there full-time either (more for fear he will break down than for the way his defense hurts the team).  Thus you can argue that having 4 corner OFers sharing 2 spots (this includes Matsui as DH) is a bit of a luxury.

That said, I also am not anxious to see any of them go, because I think that you can play Damon there a little, thus taking away Gardner/Melky/Black Hole Abs, and also because, I do think that between Damon and Matsui you are likely to see some DL time.

The rotation needs Pettitte.  $10 million might be too much, but it’s not unreasonable.  The Steinbrenners need to stop being dicks and sign him.

I kind of agree with the plain-spoken truth contained in this statement.  They’re really trying to shave a few million here and there off a one-year deal for a guy who’d be a perfect back-of-the-rotation innings eater on this team, who’d be nice to see pitching in the new stadium?

Of course, after signing CC, AJ, and Tex, the front office can do whatever the hell they want.  I’m just curious as to why they’re playing such hardball over a one-year deal with a well-liked guy who makes sense for the 2009 team.

The rotation needs Pettitte.  $10 million might be too much, but it’s not unreasonable.  The Steinbrenners need to stop being dicks and sign him.

The Steinbrenner’s have tried to sign him at $10M but Andy hasn’t wanted in at that price.  I’m not sure we can fault them here unless you’re saying they’re dicks not to up their offer to the $13-14M range.

Cashman has made repeated remarks to the effect that the Yankees don’t want to use Swisher in CF

Really?  Repeated remarks?  I thought he said this once, at the time of the trade.

Personally, I don’t see any reason not to go primarily with a Swisher/Damon/Nady OF with liberal use of Cabrera and Gardner for late inning defense and to rest Damon.  Matsui will need some days off, even DHing exclusively.  Damon can DH on those days, and play LF when you want to give Nady or Swisher a rest.

Thus you can argue that having 4 corner OFers sharing 2 spots (this includes Matsui as DH) is a bit of a luxury.

Is there any evidence that the FO ever viewed Gardner as the potential starting CF? Also, considering that he was once the starting CF, is there any evidence that the FO has completely given up on Cabrera? These are actual questions for anyone who might have caught a quote from Cashman or Girardi somewhere.

The reason I ask is because, basically, you couldn’t have constructed a better roster than to allow Gardner to audition as the starting CF or to see if Cabrera can turn things around. 

It seems like they have a lot of decent options as the roster stands, and if things don’t work out with Gardner or Cabrera, they can deal from a strength to get a CFer during the season.

I’m actually quite interested to see what Gardner can do over half a season or so. He did finish the season pretty strong.

Cashman has made repeated remarks = Cashman has made remarks that have been repeated.

You want to play semantics, MC, I’m up to it.

The rotation needs Pettitte.  $10 million might be too much, but it’s not unreasonable.

exactly, so Pettitte should have accepted this offer that “might be too much”.

your argument is backwards.

After looking over the Nady splits progression and thinking it over I now agree with the Frog.

Trade Damon instead.

Would you trade Nady for Bailey straight up?

No, but for Bailey’s and coffee, maybe.

Looks like the Red Sox are going to sign Baldelli. I was really hoping he’d end up a Yankee.

Baldelli is a perfect fit for The Yanks- his problem was apparently misdiagnosed and he can apparently play a lot more often than previously assumed.  Is there any reason why he isn’t the ideal compliment as a platoon with Melky OR Gardner?  How much can he possibly cost?  Sign him up and use Nady/Swisher/Matsui to get a 5th starter if we can’t sign Pettitte.

Um, the Red Sox already signed him. See [49].

Actually it looks like a spoke too soon.. sorry.

Via LoHud:

“As for the second point, listen to what Brian Cashman said about the state of the current payroll, which is currently projected to be slightly below last year’s mark: “We’re going to come in lower. … The decisions we made this winter would compromise my ability to be aggressive in the free agent market (going forward). Let’s leave it at that.”
In other words, don’t expect another $20 million a year signing.”

I’ll believe it when I see it, but it could mean no to Matt Holliday. Austin Jackson, the pressure’s on.

Please note that the “In other words, don’t expect another $20 million a year signing.” is Pete Abe, not Cash.

Damon and Matsui are $26M coming off the books next year.  Even with arb. raises, they could add close to $20M and still be at the same level.  That probably means they only add 1 or 2 FA next year.

And don’t forget the $1M that is coming off with the end of Molino’s contract!

We’re also forgetting the $1M the team is getting in 2009 for allowing Rasner to go to Japan.

Yeah, but next year they’ll be locking up Melky long-term at $10 million per after his dominant 2009.

lock him up to play rf, of course, since Gardner will grit his way to a 900 ops.

A 900 ops!  That’s a heckuva lot of getting the uniform dirty and playing the game the right way!

Well, he also has to learn that it’s all about the championships.

Tree, Frog, DaPuj…you guys are funny. It almost make up for no FJM.

Almost.

Smoltz to the BloSox. My reaction is who the f*** cares? 41 year old lifetime national leaguer welcome to the AL east.

Yeah, I mostly say fuck smoltz. But it scares me a little. I would rather the Sox roll over and die. But I know that won’t happen. My fear is that this signing is somehow inspired. The Sox have been pretty clever with weird little pick ups like this. Not that this irrational fear of mine means anything in the real world. I’m just saying…it smells like a crazy, brilliant, Schillingesque/Foulkesque move to me. I know that is just my irrational fear. But I still would be happier and sleep better if they didn’t have him.

I mean, his numbers in 2004, 5, 6, 7 are great. Really, really great. Adjst for the AL and they are still outstanding. And he was even effective last year in extremely limited duty. And the ontract is incentive laden, which is always super smart for any team. I just have a fear. I heard Booby Cox on Baseball Prospecus Podcast (I think…maybe it was somewhere else) a few weeks ago talking about him throwing for their scouts and them saying he was throwing gas and breakng off sliders. And that was when he sounded POSITIVE the Brave would sign him. Someone make me feel better.

OK, I have been drinking a little wine while posting, so I have unintentionally typed Booby Cox, which is a fanastic typo. And there were some other typos. My apologies, but my point still stands. I am nervous.

Smoltz is not nearly on the same level as either Schilling or Foulke, but sure, I think it’s a clever signing, and it allows Justin Masterson to stay in the bullpen, where he’s most effective.

The AL East is going to be so freakin’ tough next year.

Smoltz is not nearly on the same level as either Schilling or Foulke

Thanks for making me feel better

I think it’s a clever signing, and it allows Justin Masterson to stay in the bullpen, where he’s most effective.

Oh, actually, I meant, thanks for nothing.

JFTR I find “BloSox” tiresome at best.

Cashman has made repeated remarks = Cashman has made remarks that have been repeated.

Nicely played.

Baldelli is a perfect fit for The Yanks- his problem was apparently misdiagnosed and he can apparently play a lot more often than previously assumed.

I think this is an overstatement in more ways than one.  The problem was not misdiagnosed—he does have a mitochondrial disorder—it’s just not as severe as originally feared.  And comments attributed to a couple of teams that are interested in him indicate that there’s still a lot of concern about his health.  I wish Rocco well and all, but just because he says that he thinks he’ll be able to play a lot more doesn’t mean that he will in fact be able to play a lot more.

As for Smoltz, he’s coming off major surgery, and isn’t worth worrying about until he proves that he can pitch again.  And “Booby” Cox saying that he threw gas for scouts and coaches doesn’t prove anything.  I think he’s definitely worth the risk, but I’m kind of surprised that he’s getting $5.5M guaranteed.

I wish Rocco well and all, but just because he says that he thinks he’ll be able to play a lot more doesn’t mean that he will in fact be able to play a lot more.

One of those subjective things again.  He very well COULD play a lot more next year; and still not enough to add real value to the Yankees.  He had 90 PA last year.  If he plays 20% more - which is a lot more - he’d have 108 PA.  Honestly, that’s not enough to even say he’s a platoon player.  The main question is, can he play like in 2006?  A half-season of +10 BRAA?  If the answer is yes, he’s a valuable commodity.  If the answer is no…not so much.

“Booby Cox”...two words to mess with the ads on the right.