Pie Charts!

Pie Charts!

Seconded.

Does pBRAR factor in GIDPs?

Also, Jeter and Moose are guys I’ve stood up for in the past, so suck it non-believers.

Curious SG, but do you think the Clutch stat is useful, or are you just including it since it was a major topic of discussion last week?

It will be interesting to see how Jeter finishes the year.  Since 1998, every year except for 2002 he’s had at least one full month with an OPS over .900 (June 2002 he had an .880).  He hasn’t yet had a month close to that this year.  I imagine he still has one in him, even if it is only an .850 this month.

Whatever happens this year, next year will be a big one for Jeter.  I’m with Cowboy who (paraphrasing) stated a while back that Jeter will have workout program this off-season to address his problems, and bounce-back next year.  Perhaps not to 2006 levels, but at least to an OPS+ of 110.  If he can maintain his improved defense, that’s huge.

Pie Charts!

It’ll cost you.

Does pBRAR factor in GIDPs?

Yeah, I include GIDP in my linear weights formula.

Curious SG, but do you think the Clutch stat is useful, or are you just including it since it was a major topic of discussion last week?

I think it’s useful.  Context-neutral stats are important when predicting, but when looking at what actually happened I think if we have extra information that can tell us a little more about the conditions in which the production came, we should use it.

Unless it’s WPA, which is against my religious beliefs.

look at Moose’s FIP.  incredible.

also Dice-K’s,  wouldn’t mind that “correction” to start any day now…

Moose Moose Moose!

It’ll cost you.

Hmm. What about Venn Diagrams?

21 walks.  Dirty.

Ahh, a pie chart.  Now, I can die in peace.
Actually surprised Moose only has 62% QS.  Seems like it should be more.

Context-neutral stats are important when predicting, but when looking at what actually happened I think if we have extra information that can tell us a little more about the conditions in which the production came, we should use it.

Okay, sounds good.  I had thought from conversations last week that Clutch was used to make Runs Created line up with actual Runs Scored, where Base Runs was already really close.  So it would seem if we’re using Base Runs, that adding in Clutch doesn’t make sense; you would get more (or less) runs at the team level than they actually scored.  However, I defer to your greater knowledge.

Nice pie-chart.  I was thinking have one for offense, with every Yankee batter with at least 300 PA and their percentage of total offense, and an “other” slice for everyone else.  Much more colorful

While I’m uncertain of the usefullness of WPA - I think it might me be most fun statistic there is.

I think Jeter’s gotten a bad rap this year, because even though he’s having the worst offensive season of his career, offense in general this year is down. Thanks for the work SG.

I think Jeter’s gotten a bad rap this year, because even though he’s having the worst offensive season of his career, offense in general this year is down.

I think that’s only partially true (him getting a bad-rap).  His 103 OPS+ is the highest it has been in a while this year, but still is his worst since 1997 (also a 103).  OPS+ should (mostly) account for offense being down across the league.  However, just by eyeballing it, I think AL SS production is down more than overall league production this year.  Partly I’m sure since Tejada isn’t in Baltimore any more.

I think the biggest problem for Jeter being criticized this year is the Yankees overall play.  If they were first in the division right now - difficult to do with Jeter’s down year but still possible - I think his performance would be looked at more in a positive light (despite having an off year still best SS in the league, etc).

Oh, did we have a winner in the contest for the outing in Baltimore yet?  I’m just curious what the answer to the trivia question is; since I don’t normally read the game-chatters if it was posted there I missed it.

YM got me to look at Lombardi this morning. He’s now agreeing with Abraham. Our dreams of a fight to the death are quickly diminishing! Also, curse you YM.

I think Jeter’s gotten a bad rap this year,

Does anyone else think it’s funny that this year, the first year when sportswriters are finally dogging Jeter for being below average defensively, that his defense has been much better?

Does anyone else think it’s funny that this year, the first year when sportswriters are finally dogging Jeter for being below average defensively, that his defense has been much better?

yes.  i’ve thought about this.

all it proves is that sportwriters are lazy.

RHP Joba Chamberlain made 28 throws Saturday after making 25 on Friday in his first action since going on the disabled list with rotator cuff tendinitis. Chamberlain told reporters he felt better Saturday than the previous day and expects to go on the road with the Yankees and continue playing catch to rebuild arm strength.

Oh, did we have a winner in the contest for the outing in Baltimore yet?  I’m just curious what the answer to the trivia question is; since I don’t normally read the game-chatters if it was posted there I missed it.

I didn’t win the contest, but apparently the answer is Paulie O.

Reports of My Demise May Have Been Premature

Does anyone know what the real Mark Twain quote is? I’ve heard “Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated” as well as “Rumors of my death have been..”

Mark Twain’s actual words.

Despite my previous post pointing to Twain’s original phrasing, I would like to suggest that any words deploying the basic structure and concept of the quotation constitutes a legitimate cultural reference.

I’m sure you’re all relieved to know that.

Mark Twain’s actual words.

You saying he never said a variation of that in conversation?

Oh, did we have a winner in the contest for the outing in Baltimore yet?

Yeah, I should have posted about that.  Conkles is the lucky winner.

Boo Conkles.

So, can we get Paulie to put on the uni again for a couple months?

Yay Conkles.

Also, curse you YM.

I’m so sorry.  What can I do to make up for such an egregious transgression?

Has Hughes’s poor showing yesterday made the reports of the Yankees demise even closer to certainty?

You saying he never said a variation of that in conversation?

I have said nothing of the sort.

Has Hughes’s poor showing yesterday made the reports of the Yankees demise even closer to certainty?

Absolutely.  They’re as dead as a doornail.

So, can we get Paulie to put on the uni again for a couple months?

Can he play second base?

I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Joe Sheehan is the most clueless sabr writer out there.

Actually surprised Moose only has 62% QS.  Seems like it should be more.

ESPN has Moose at 65% QS.  Just to add more color to the QS thing, there are a couple of pitchers with 20 QS, all in the NL.  The leaders in the AL are that Lee dude and Jeremy Guthrie with 18.  Moose is with a whole bunch of other people with 17. 

Oh, I didn’t mean to suggest otherwise Frog.  Just wondering if the oft used quote was from conversation, or misquoted from among your linked material.

They’re as dead as a doornail.

Fine, I’ll take the bait.  Though commonly attributed to screenwriter Billy Shakespeare, this expression apparently dates back to 1350 , though I haven’t found the original reference myself.

So, can we get Paulie to put on the uni again for a couple months?

Can he play second base?

Scratch that, can he . . .  (all together now) pitch teh 8??!!!1111!?!

Villianx, no problem, and please excuse my snippy tone.

And plus, even failing to win the contest, I am planning to be in Baltimore this weekend, Saturday and hopefully Sunday.  Anyone have any travel tips for Baltimore, eats and attractions?  Obrycki’s is on the agenda.

36: That’s actually quite interesting.  I didn’t know the origins of that particular phrase. 

RLYW: Where you learn one obscure literary fact every day!

Thumbs down on treating “clutch” like a real stat.

You’re really good at Trivial Pursuit, aren’t you Frog?

Anyone have any travel tips for Baltimore, eats and attractions?

Can’t say as I’m an expert, but about every other year my wife and I head down to Baltimore for a week-end.  The aquarium is a must I think.  The zoo isn’t bad.  Nothing special, but you can waste a few hours.  They were doing some construction last year when we were there, so it may be a bit better now.

Definitely check out the Inner Harbor (where the aquarium is).  You’ve got The Hard Rock Cafe and ESPN Zone there, as well as a ton of other stuff to do/places to eat.  The first time we were there we didn’t get to go to any “local” places, and the last two times we had the kids so we stayed away from any more “adult” places - get your mind out of the gutter! - so I can’t help with those.

Anyone have any travel tips for Baltimore, eats and attractions?

Try not to get murdered.

Try not to get murdered.

You’re not in advertising, are you?

Watch all the past episodes of The Wire(season 4 best season of TV ever)

Goldstein on Betances:

The Yankees shelled out $1 million in 2006 to sign Betances, but injury problems have slowed his progress significantly. He pitched just seven games last year before being shut down with a sore arm, and the first two months of this year were filled with what can only be described as dominating wildness, as the six-foot-eight righty struck out 64 in 55 innings, while also walking 40. Then came another shutdown for some vague reason which was never called anything more specific than “a tired shoulder.” The good news is that the off period lasted only a month, and Betances has put together his best run as a pro since returning, including a career-high 12 strikeouts on Saturday in just six innings. Since his return, he’s whiffed 62 in 49 1/3 innings while allowing just 37 hits and, even more promising, walking just 18. Nobody has ever questioned his stuff or projection, and he just might finally be on track.

Try not to get murdered.

That stuff on the television is for realz?

I got a newphew in tow, so the Aquarium is on the schedule too.

Trivia Pursuit with a sports category is so unfairly skewered for a dude to win.

Trivia Pursuit with a sports category is so unfairly skewered for a dude to win.

Unless you get a question about women’s figure-skating or something!

Trivia Pursuit with a sports category is so unfairly skewered for a dude to win.

Comments, Bubba?

Thumbs down on treating “clutch” like a real stat.

Why?

Damn.  I get too busy to stop by for a week or so and I miss out on a contest.  Would have worked out nicely, too, since I’m taking the family to the Sunday game in Charm City.  A free trip to the Aquarium would have taken the edge off having to watch a Rasner start.

Seems like a step backwards to me.  Is it a skill?  What’s the statistical uncertainty?  Aren’t RBIs a real stat by the above reasoning?

Trivia Pursuit with a sports category is so unfairly skewered for a dude to win.

Comments, Bubba?

Hah!  Most of my (female) friends get creamed in sports-related trivia, so yeah, I’d say it’s true.

Seems like a step backwards to me.  Is it a skill?  What’s the statistical uncertainty?  Aren’t RBIs a real stat by the above reasoning?

If I understand correctly…SG is using this to measure what actually happened as opposed to having any predictive value.  E.g. RBI may not be useful in predicting how many runs a player will produce, but does accurately describe how many runs the player did drive in.  Even if those were random-variation (luck).

Of course, you’ll notice I questioned it above, so I’m still not sure if I understand it correctly. 

Seems like a step backwards to me.  Is it a skill?  What’s the statistical uncertainty?  Aren’t RBIs a real stat by the above reasoning?

Well, like I said, I wouldn’t use it predictively, but it gives some context to what already happened. 

RBIs are team dependent.  Clutch is not team dependent, you don’t get penalized for having fewer opportunities with RISP and ROB.

I’m actually in favor of capturing various measures of clutch (as much as I joke about how silly they can be) for two reasons:

<ul>
<li>
They give us a sense of why the team’s overall results have over (ha ha) or under performed the component events.  For example, if we had a measure of the clutchiness of walks (allowing us to distinguish between high value leadoff walks and relatively low value walks with 2 out and a runner on 2nd), it might help us to understand the degree to which some players’ high walk rate is valuable to this particular team. 
</li>
<li>
They might help us to identify trends which aren’t random but reflect the result of opposing tactics which aren’t being countered effectively (e.g. poor BA in the 7th and 8th innings might turn out to be related to other teams use of platoon advantage).  If nothing else, a measure of situational hitting is a pointer to an area where something interesting might be happening.  While most of those indications will be random, I suspect that we are likely to learn more by focusing on seemingly clutch/unclutch events than by picking things to study at random.  The key is that we shouldn’t regard a non-zero level of clutchiness by some measure as strong evidence.  At most, it’s a place to look.
</li>
</ul>

That said, I don’t believe that the year to year correlations from clutch are going to be nearly high enough to make player choices based on the stat (this is well documented for at least some versions of clutchiness), but clutchiness might help us identify some additional managing tricks (like the importance of alternating handedness of players in the lineup) or just give us a name to assign to bad luck.

Tuesday: RHP Darrell Rasner (5-9, 5.18) vs. RHP A.J. Burnett (15-9, 4.67) 7:07, YES

Wednesday: LHP Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.30) vs. LHP David Purcey (2-3, 5.93) 7:07, YES

Thursday: RHP Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.20) vs. RHP Roy Halladay (14-9, 2.64) 7:07, YES

Crap.

Nice to see Toronto giving us a break.

“Well, like I said, I wouldn’t use it predictively, but it gives some context to what already happened.”

Seems likely to be misleading context.  E.g., is the average clutch 0., and if so does that just have the result that a few actually unclutch performers bias the mean?  (What, e.g., is the true expected OPS/OPS_w_RISP?)  Is it not just statistics?  Doesn’t it in fact advantage players who get few opportunities w/RISP plus get small-sample fluctuations?  That’s the point of my uncertainty question above.  I kinda understand a guy’s walk rate if you say he walked 50 times last year.  I don’t know if he’s got a poor clutch because of not being a home-run hitter or not being a singles hitter.  Does it reflect lineup construction or hitting on a good vs bad team - does the player get a lot of walks ahead of the pitcher’s slot?

And the name really annoyingly begs the question if it’s not a skill.

It’s ok, Ponson’s like our #2. It’ll be a good match with Halladay

Wait… what?

Seems likely to be misleading context.  E.g., is the average clutch 0., and if so does that just have the result that a few actually unclutch performers bias the mean?

All clutch does is adjust the individual players’ batting runs which we’ve already calculated using linear weights upwards or downwards based on how that individual player hit with runners in scoring position compared to how he himself hit in all situations.  Since linear weights assigns every single the same run value, this corrects that in the context of the player himself.  There’s no comparisons to anyone else and no one else biases the mean.

Doesn’t it in fact advantage players who get few opportunities w/RISP plus get small-sample fluctuations?

No, because you are not comparing players to each other.  You’re comparing a player’s performance with RISP/ROB to his performance with the bases empty.  Again, for predictive purpose, sample size would be an issue, but for value analysis it’s irrelevant.

Does it reflect lineup construction or hitting on a good vs bad team - does the player get a lot of walks ahead of the pitcher’s slot?

No, because you are comparing the player to himself.

And the name really annoyingly begs the question if it’s not a skill.

I can change the name. Something like RISP +/- or something.

E.g., is the average clutch 0.,

I think this would be interesting to see.  What is the RISP +/- for the aggregate of all of baseball this year, or maybe last year to get a full year of data.  I would bet that it would be statistically significantly non-zero, but I’m trying to guess which way.  I’d say it’d be positive, because a pitcher who’s already let men on base is probably more likely to be struggling than one who keeps the bases clear.

“for value analysis it’s irrelevant”

Only if it comes with a statistical uncertainty attached, and only if it’s a skill.  Otherwise RBI/RBI_opps would be useful for value analysis.  It looks to me like you’re adding high-stats data to low-stats data without weighting.

“No, because you are comparing the player to himself.”

I think that’s incorrect.  Hitting in front of guy-whose-name-I’ve-suppressed with RISP ought to lead to an inflated clutch.  That’s likely to be much less of an issue w/o RISP - you hate to put a guy on with <2 outs and the bases empty in front of gwnIs.

“I can change the name.”

How about “Luck with RISP” until proven otherwise?  (Yes, I’m being a jerk.)

Are relievers likelier to come in with RISP relative to random?  Or start of inning?

Sigh. I go camping for the weekend, hoping either the Yanks are completely out of it or gained 3 games on boston, but they predictably remain just in range to make things interesting.

Sounds about right. At least they got rid of Sexson and the front office let us know they too were worried about Melky.

Odds are we make the Burnett game interesting, get shutout by Purcey and destroy Halladay.

“How about ‘Luck with RISP’ until proven otherwise?”

If you have a problem with this metric containing elements of luck, then you must not be a fan of BA, SLG, OPS, ERA, WHIP, or anything really besides K rates and BB rates.

I don’t see what’s wrong with quantifying luck if you’re trying to measure how much you have already contributed to your team’s success. Sure, a hitter’s clutch stat might be higher than others because he bats in front of a monster hitter, but why does that matter when trying to measure how much a batter has contributed to a team’s run-scoring?

With WOE, does it usually matter who the opponenet starts? Feldman says: No.

“If you have a problem with this metric containing elements of luck”

I have a problem with it not containing any elements of non-luck.

“Sure, a hitter’s clutch stat might be higher than others because he bats in front of a monster hitter”

Then that’s not a skill first off, and not value due to the guy in front anyway.

And I have a problem with adding noisy data directly into unnoisy data.

All that other stuff has luck in it - A-Rod may bring the exact same set of conditioning and skill etc. to two pitches and hit one out but whiff on the other due to a fan sneezing or whatever, but over time I expect that extraneous stuff to average out.  I want to see studies demonstrating this is a real metric before it gets used on the front page.

Let’s hope Matsuzaka’s FIP comes back to bite him in the ass real fast.

SG,

I have a naive question. What is the ultimate goal of pBRAA + clutch? To estimate how productive a player has been up to this point? Why use a pre-designated amount of worth assigned to different types of hits, instead of just using a position-adjusted metric of exactly how many runs the player creates (R+RBI-HR)?

I guess I started thinking about this because I was trying to think about the purpose of adding clutch to your analysis. It seems you are just trying to adjust for the real-world variation of the theoretical value of a hit. If this is the case, it seems to me like your better off just analyzing the actual runs created.

I may have the completely wrong idea about what BRAA is, and if that’s the case, please set me straight.

Boston and Tampa Bay both already up 2 runs.

Fuckity.

Now that I think a little more, maybe this is what rilkefan was getting at by saying RBI/RBI_opps would be useful id clutch is.

I’m thinking the purpose of pBRAA is to estimate the theoretical runs created by a player. Because theoretically, a player could bat 1.000 for the whole year, and if none of those hits are HR and none of his teammates ever get hits, he would have 0 runs created. So BRAA shows how many runs the player would create if he were on a completely average team.

If that is the case, then adding clutch seems faulty to me, because you are adjusting what that player theoretically would do with an average team with what he has done with his actual team.

I have a naive question. What is the ultimate goal of pBRAA + clutch?To estimate how productive a player has been up to this point? Why use a pre-designated amount of worth assigned to different types of hits, instead of just using a position-adjusted metric of exactly how many runs the player creates (R+RBI-HR)?

pBRAA is calculated using linear weights, which does exactly what you’re saying (pre-designate amounts of worth for every offensive event, positive and negative. Singles are worth .47 runs, HRs are worth 1.4 runs, SB are worth .22 runs, CS are worth -.38 runs, etc.,  This is what I use for just about all of my offensive analysis, and have been for a few years.  I would never use runs produced (R + RBI - HR) because it doesn’t get any more team-dependent than that.

The clutch thing came up out of a question in a thread last week.  When you look at how many runs the Yankees should have theoretically scored, they come up about 20-30 runs short.  The main reason for that is the timing of their hits.  I saw the clutch stat on Hardball Times, which is a site I respect very much, so I played around with it and saw that on a team level, it seemed to line up with why the Yankees have scored fewer runs than they should have.

One thing that I always worry about is repeating the same stuff over and over.  It’s not easy to write something just about every day without falling into the trap of being repetitive, so when I see something new that may make for an interesting discussion or that may add to what we know about baseball, I’ll include it.  It may be more noise than signal at times, but at the very least it gives us something to think about.

Now that I think a little more, maybe this is what rilkefan was getting at by saying RBI/RBI_opps would be useful id clutch is.

That’s basically what clutch is.  RBI may be a team-dependent stat, but RBI/RBI_opps isn’t a bad thing to track IMO.  That removes the team dependency that makes RBI useless, doesn’t it?

Let’s look at A-Rod for example.

He’s come to bat 450 times this year, and has 386 AB.  He’s gotten 121 hits, 26 2B, 28 HR, 50 BB, and 10 HBP.  Linear weights says that’s worth
.47 x 121 + .38 x 26 + .93 x 28 + .33 x (50 +10) = 112.6 runs before we add in the outs.  Those run values for each event are the average run value for each event.  What clutch does is compare his performance in situations more likely to lead to runs scoring (RISP and ROB) with his average overall performance.  If he has done worse in those situations, his actual true value is less than his context neutral value.  Again, this has NOTHING to do with ability, this is strictly looking back retroactively.  Looking forward we should look at the totality of his production, not specific splits.

So he’s come up with runners in scoring position 156 times this season, with 118 AB.  His overall batting average is .313 this year, which means in theory he should have gotten 37 hits.  He’s gotten 30. So he’s seven hits short, which is what clutch would penalize him for.  It doesn’t mean he’s unclutch, it means that the timings of his hits to this point in the season has been. 

Anyway, I’m not married to this clutch stat or anything, so if people feel it’s not of much use I don’t need to use it going forward.  Besides, I had to use it to get Jeter to beat out Peralta.

“Besides, I had to use it to get Jeter to beat out Peralta.”

As good a reason as any. Thanks for explaining…I walk away much smarter (or at least more informed).

So the thing I can’t stop thinking about—and I’ve been away from this forum most of the season, so forgive me if this has been hashed out—clutchitude or not, what happens when Jeter’s contract runs out at age 36?  You can imagine the pressure to give him a 4-5 year lifetime contract to carry him right into Canyon of Heroes.  How does that contract not become an albatross?To make it even less comfortable, he figures to be just shy of 3,000 hits at that moment.

Likewise, to address a shorter term dilemma, Moose.  To give him the 2 years he can get on the market would be a dangerous buy-high scenario.  I think they have to let him go.

And Giambi?  I never woulda guessed it 9 months ago, but $17m option looking pretty good about now.  But do some 1B-DH AB’s need to be freed up for Jorgie?

Pavano could start Saturday? I’ll believe it when I see it. Apparently it’s between him and Hughes.

Sorry if this is old news.

I’d like to see a pie chart indicating something about Pavano…

Holliday career splits OPS home 1092 road 799 2008 1117/894