SG, have you tried adjusting the Pythag for the Wang ridiculousness?  Maybe cap RS/RA at 10 or soemthing.

I have to think the Yankees pythag is not representative.

In other words, Yanks had better win that one game against the Red Sox that SG guaranteed a while back.

Realistically, what this tells me is that head-to-head matchups are probably going to be the determining factor going forward.

You did all that work to come up with that?  We settled that here before the ASB! 

Courtesy of Rob Neyer, here is a nice article in the Daily News (!) about Baseball-Reference.com.  Some of the stuff I already knew, but some was new.

SG, have you tried adjusting the Pythag for the Wang ridiculousness?  Maybe cap RS/RA at 10 or soemthing.

I have to think the Yankees pythag is not representative.

I agree, full-season Pythag is not going to be representative because of Wang/Ransom/Veras, and I thought about adjusting for that, but then we have to think about doing the same for Matsuzaka/Ortiz and Kazmir/Navarro/Upton I guess.  If we completely ignore Pythag and use 50% YTD WPCT and 50% 2009 projection, that moves the Yankees to 95.6, Boston to 97, Tampa Bay to 89.1.  So, the Yanks and Red Sox would look to be basically even, with the one game advantage the Red Sox have right now as the main difference.

In other words, Yanks had better win that one game against the Red Sox that SG guaranteed a while back.

If I go back and delete my guarantee, can I pretend I never made it?

“So, the Yanks and Red Sox would look to be basically even, with the one game advantage the Red Sox have right now as the main difference.”

That jibes with my gut.  I think the Yankees are a better team, but that may be innate fanboyism.

I think the Yankees are a better team, but that may be innate fanboyism.

I think so too, but it’s pretty tough to assert it when they’ve lost all 8 head-to-head match ups.

I think so too, but it’s pretty tough to assert it when they’ve lost all 8 head-to-head match ups.

Well, against everyone else the Yankees have a significantly better record…

1961 M&M boys lead Yankees to be world series champs
2009 T&A boys ????

Just imagine how pretty the Yanks would be sitting even if they had won a sub-par 3 of the 8 matchups vs. Boston. That’s why these analyses and any look at the AL East standings hurts.

I’ve always had a particular problem with SOS calculations, mostly because it doesn’t account for the team you are playing on a given day, just the average teams performance.  I suppose in an ideal world each player’s vorp could be used to assign a strength of the lineup and then be carried over into a strength of schedule correlation.

This ire came from the Sox skipping Halladay for the first half of the year. 

Its more of a hindsight view, as you can’t really predict future lineups any better than the average (except maybe the rotation).  Then again, maybe there is no significant difference between the two.

“I think so too, but it’s pretty tough to assert it when they’ve lost all 8 head-to-head match ups. “

I like to look at the 1988 Dodgers for inspiration.

Didn’t the Knicks sweep the Pistons one year in the season series and then get swept in the post season?

I’ve always had a particular problem with SOS calculations, mostly because it doesn’t account for the team you are playing on a given day, just the average teams performance.

Yeah, that’s a fair point.  KC with Greinke is probably a .500 WPCT team, compared to their overall .400 or so.  Unfortunately, figuring out matchups to that degree with 71 games to go is pretty much impossible.  So you do it with the average team performance, with the understanding that there are factors that will influence what actually happens, and to not take these numbers as gospel.

I like to look at the 1988 Dodgers for inspiration.

That works for me.  C.C. or A.J. in the role of Orel?

Or Joba?

Definitely Joba.  He can even come out of the pen for a save on his throw day.

Hey guys, I’ll be at work using my AM radio mojo to raise Sterling and Waldman for tonight’s game (I know how to tweak the dial just so). Hopefully the moose and the mountain air will bring us luck.

SG- this question is in regard to the scheduling of games in the interleague era.  In the early years 97-2000? didn’t all teams play the exact schedule as their divisional opponents?  Somewhere along the line they introduced the concept of natural rivalry games hence the Mets/Yanks and White Sox/Cubs etal (have to play twice)that represents inevitably some differences from one team to another within each division. 

Now the question, is it my imagination or not that the Yankees play the Angels more times each year than one would expect given they are not in the same division.  It seems like they always make two trips out there. They went to KC twice two years ago and Minnesota twice last year. They had not made two trips to those cities in the same season since prior to the introduction of interleague play in 97.  Seems like if this is done on a rotational basis that something wierd is going on.

Also, do the Red Sox have the same schedule for the most part as the Yankees each season irrespective of the issue with rivalry games? It seems like aside from the analysis done each year with schedule remaining, not many people focus on the overall scheduling from year to year.

Now the question, is it my imagination or not that the Yankees play the Angels more times each year than one would expect given they are not in the same division.

I never actually looked at it, but it always seems that way.  Pulling the team vs. team data from here and looking at the # of games the Red Sox and Yankees have played against several teams over 2002-2008:

<u>LA of A</u>
Boston: 60
Yankees: 64

<u>Detroit</u>
Boston: 55
Yankees: 49

<u>Kansas City</u>
Boston: 46
Yankees: 56

<u>Minnesota</u>
Boston: 44
Yankees: 48

<u>Oakland</u>
Boston: 63
Yankees: 57

<u>Texas</u>
Boston: 63
Yankees: 58

I assume this is due to the logistics of scheduling, and it really works out to at most a one game difference vs a particular team in a single season, but it certainly appears to be true that the teams do not play the same schedules aside from interleague in any given season. 

I don’t like the wild card for several reasons, primarily because of the unbalanced schedule.  This shows that the schedule is even more unbalanced than the intra-division schedule makes it.

Thanks so much SG- appreciate you doing the research. I would prefer more games with Texas and less with Anaheim if you can do anything about it!

I’ll try joel (as long as we keep the edge vs. KC), but Bud Selig generally ignores my emails, although I guess that’s because I keep asking him to tender his resignation.

I’ll try joel (as long as we keep the edge vs. KC), but Bud Selig generally ignores my emails, although I guess that’s because I keep asking him to tender his resignation.

Do you also make fun of his hair in your e-mails? I think he can get over the call for resignation part, but his hair is the thing he is real sensitive about.

Selig can start by ditching the monotonous unbalanced schedule that, in light of SG’s analysis, will likely produce even more tedium this season since virtually all of the remaining 10 games with the RS will be even more “must win” than usual.

The lineup:

Jeter SS
Damon LF
Tex 1B
A-Rod 3B
Matsui DH
Cano 2B
Hinske RF
Melky CF
Molina C
Pettitte P

Melky getting showcased again?  The Orioles seem to be stuck starting a RHP.

[25] Ham just had this note:

SLIP SLIDING AWAY: Got these stats from an observant reader:

Melky Cabrera’s first 128 at-bats: .328/.374/.492
Melky Cabrera’s last 128 at-bats: .234/.310/.367
__

I’m not sure any showcasing is having the desired effect.

What’s Gardner’s breakdown?  How about since the 4 for 5 day(3 bloops)?  Until AJ from AAA is ready I don’t see trading either one unless we’re blown away especially given how shaky Damon has looked in the field recently and how shaky Swisher is in the field.

[27] Swisher’s putting up an above average UZR in the OF.  He’ll always look awkward, that’s just him, but he’s fine out there.

[14] Joba.

[28] Depends on the definition of “fine”.

This yet again shows that metrics cannot in anyway reliably measure defense.

The Orioles are my least favorite bad team to face.  I always feel like Roberts and Jones are going to tear it up and one of their random one of their random starters will shut us down.

Swisher’s putting up an above average UZR in the OF.  He’ll always look awkward, that’s just him, but he’s fine out there.

I was trying to explain this to a friend of mine not familiar with advanced defensive metrics.  We both agreed that Swisher doesn’t look good doing it, but I had to convince him that Swisher’s actually been average to slightly above average.

Wow, I messed up in 31.

So what is the definition of UZR?  Does yesterday’s debacle lower it?  How about some of the Boston misplays?

So what is the definition of UZR?

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 1

Does yesterday’s debacle lower it?  How about some of the Boston misplays?

Plays not made lower it.  Plays made raise it.  Just like in any defensive system.  The problem is when you focus on some plays that aren’t made and ignore a bunch of plays that were made.

Swisher is Exhibit 1 as to why these zone ratings are basically worthless.

Swisher is Exhibit 1 as to why these zone ratings are basically worthless.

One example does not make your case.  Try harder.