The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Saturday, September 26, 2009

RedSox (91-62) @ Yankees (98-56), Saturday, September 26, 2009, 4:10pm **Mismatch Chatter**

BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka (28, RHP, 3-5, 6.80 ERA, 5.25 FIP, -0.3 WAR) vs NYY: CC Sabathia (28, LHP, 18-7, 3.31 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 5.4 WAR)

Lineups
Boston Red Sox
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (.302/.349/.419, 1.6 WAR)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.299/.371/.445, 4.6 WAR)
Victor Martinez, C (.301/.379/.478, 2.8 WAR)
Kevin Youkilis, 1B (.304/.411/.542, 4.7 WAR)
Mike Lowell, 3B (.291/.338/.481, 0.5 WAR)
David Ortiz, DH (.237/.331/.463, 0.5 WAR)
Rocco Baldelli, RF (.262/.323/.454, 0.0 WAR)
Jed Lowrie, SS (.158/.219/.246, -0.2 WAR)
Brian Anderson, LF (.236/.312/.328, -0.2 WAR)
Total,  (.283/.357/.456, 14.3 WAR)

2003 Detroit Tigers
Derek Jeter, SS (.330/.398/.460, 5.3 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.284/.365/.494, 3.0 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.293/.383/.566, 4.7 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.288/.407/.532, 3.4 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.280/.374/.526, 2.3 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.286/.363/.528, 1.4 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.321/.351/.515, 3.3 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.248/.365/.491, 2.7 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.272/.331/.413, 0.9 WAR)
Total,  (.292/.372/.502, 27.0 WAR)

Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%

I have a confession to make.  There are times where I say that games are important when they really aren’t.  However, that’s not the case today.  The Red Sox lead the season series against the Yankees 9-7.  It is not possible to make the claim that you are better than a team that beats you in the season series.  If the Yankees don’t win today, there is no chance for them to not lose the season series.

That will cast a pall on the entire 2009 season, regardless of how it ends.  Even if by some miracle the Yankees make it through the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs, Boston will always have bragging rights that they took the 2009 season series.

We can’t be having a pall on the entire 2009 season, can we?  Ergo, the importance of this game is plainly obvious.

It won’t be easy to win today, just like it didn’t seem like it would be yesterday.  C.C. Sabathia is having a fine season, with an 18-7 record and 3.31 ERA.  He’s got a .720 winning percentage in his decisions, which is very good.

Daisuke Matsuzaka scoffs at that.  Last season, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. 

Wins
Matsuzaka 2008: 18
Sabathia 2009: 18
Advantage: Even

Losses
Matsuzaka 2008: 3
Sabathia 2009: 7
Advantage: Matsuzaka

ERA
Matsuzaka 2008: 2.90
Sabathia 2009: 3.31
Advantage: Matsuzaka

Matsuzaka is clearly better than Sabathia head to head.  But you’re probably thinking, “why would we ignore Matsuzaka’s 2009?” That’s a fair point.

In 2009, Sabathia has given up four or more runs in a game 11 times.  Matsuzaka has done it only six times.  Not just that, but Sabathia has given up 16 HRs, Matsuzaka only nine.  Not just that, but Sabathia has walked 46 batters, whereas Matsuzaka has only walked 22.  And even though hits allowed can be skewed by the defense behind you, Matsuzaka has held opposing hitters to just 70 hits, compared to Sabathia who has allowed 87 MORE at 157.  Even if we assumed all those 87 extra hits were singles, that’s a linear weights run differential of 42 runs, or four wins.  Further proof that Matsuzaka is better.

Anyway, maybe, just like yesterday, the Yankees will pull off a miracle.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 1:11 pm by SG / 228 Comments | - (239)

Comments

Page 1 of 3 pages:  1 2 3 >

Daisuke Matsuzaka scoffs at that.  Last season, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. 

I still have no idea how that happened.

I am crushed by the weight of statistical evidence.

I think SG was offered a position working at the NY Post and is just getting ready.

UPDATE, 2:35 p.m.: Posada scratched with a stiff neck.

I never found that being scratched helps with a stiff neck.

SG, can you explain what’s up with V-Mart’s WAR?  It was 7.0 yesterday, now it’s 2.8.  How do you handle players who spend significant amounts of time at two or more positions?

SG, can you explain what’s up with V-Mart’s WAR?  It was 7.0 yesterday, now it’s 2.8.  How do you handle players who spend significant amounts of time at two or more positions?

Yeah, yesterday’s was wrong.  For players who’ve split time with two teams it looks like my spreadsheet was combining both lines multiple times.

As far as multiple positions, what I’m doing now (which I wasn’t until the last week or so) is figuring out innings played at each position as a percentage of total playing time, then breaking apart their batting runs as that same percentage and position-adjusting each percentage separately.

So in V-Mart’s case, you have:

629 innings at catcher (52%).
558.3 innings at 1B (46%).
27 innings at DH (2%).
He’s got 96 batting runs, so I just split that out as:

52% times 96 BR at C, 46% times 96 BR at 1B, 2% times 96 BR at DH.

So then
50 BR are compared to a replacement level catcher over the same # of C PAs.
44 BR are compared to a replacement level 1B over the same # of 1B PAs.
2 BR are compared to a replacement level DH (league average hitter) over the same # of DH PAs.

So doing that, he’s been:

22 BR better than a replacement level C
11 BR better than a replacement level 1B
.4 BR better than a replacement level DH. 

Add those up and you get his revised BRAR, 33.4.  He’s -5 defensively at catcher, which knocks him down to +28, divided by 10 and you get 2.8 WAR.

I know that it would probably be better to use actual batting splits at each position, but that adds a lot more complexity that I don’t think will make that much difference.

Awesome, thanks.  Makes sense.  Seems like that system should work well enough considering the difference in effort to get the actual batting splits.  Seems like catcher vs. non-catcher might be the one where the split matters the most.  Would be interesting in the off-season to take a look at players who spent significant amounts of time at catcher and non-catcher to see if there’s a big difference in production.  This year Martinez has been about 20% better compared to his overall line when he’s a 1B, and 20% worse when he’s a catcher.  Tough to tease out a causation there though.

I am crushed by the weight of statistical evidence.

Stastics. The word is stastics. Get it right.

Atlanta is only 3 games back of Colorado? Wow, I didn’t realize.

I’m excited that the AL central race might actually be interesting.  Here’s to a one-game play-off!

[11]
And here’s to Bud calling it a tie after 27 innings… and making them play again.

Second batter in, and Fox folks are already insufferable.

As is Pedroia with his whinyness.

take a seat, halfling!

I want them to smack the bejeezus out of Matsuzaka today.  I don’t know why it’s so important to me, but it is.

[16] Because of this?

pg2_matsuzaka_195.jpg

The Yankees are aiming for the legs of Boston pitchers.

In a strange way, this is a bam-box, as some people say.

Cool that they could design the park so that it’s easy to steal off of Varitek and RS pitchers get hit a lot.

Does Johnny have a broken bat record of some kind?

Dictat to the Fox guys: work in the phrase “New England” as many times as possible.

Douches.

McCarver has statistics on how many bats players break.  A super-SABR guy, apparently.

Damn! Johnny, get one fair.

Varitek still wears a C even when he is not playing.

I find the concept of Captain in a baseball team ridiculous. What is their role, exactly?

In cricket, they are responsible for determining who pitches, in what order hitters go in an inning (you are allowed to change that in an inning that consists of 10 outs), and the placement of fielders. In soccer, sometimes they have conversations with other players, sometimes making in field decisions.

What does a baseball captain do?

This is frustrating.
He shouldn’t escape so many potentially lousy innings with so little damage.

That was my favorite pitch of the year.

Lowell gave a half-hearted pro-forma Red Sock complaint to the umpire… on a SWINGING strike-out.
Too much.

“I had to swing at that ball because your zone is too large.”

THIS guy - he really is worth that contract.

But he’s let two guys put the ball in play already.  Weak.

Crickets.
Locusts.
Cicadae (is that the plural?).

Haven’t watched that many games, but Cano’s stance looks a little different from what I remembered.

Matsuzaka just walked Cano.  Hahaha.  Makes me smile.

Is something wrong with Gardner? Why no start? Unless he started recently, in which case, still, but nevermind.

Come on Jose, I want to spell Molina with an o.

This game is a direct test of whether it really is better to be lucky than good.

That sucked.

Matsuzaka just walked Cano.

On cue with the tv voices saying he’s been walking more. Though that probably is not true. He’s only 1 (now 2) behind last year’s pace, which the tv voice said, paraphrasing, was pitifully low.

I approve of that inning.  Now the offense needs to score 4 runs.

GD had Lowrie’s flyball at the wall.  He hit it that well?

McCarver could be a really good announcer if he only had someone elses mannerisms, voice and personality.

I can’t wait to see Called Strike In Dirt on gameday at some point.

[39] He hit it well, and this game is being played in a gravity-free environment that Steinbrenner invented to skew HR totals.

Nice catch jumping against the wall by Melky on it though.

If Jeter had tagged, would he really have been thrown out at second from the wall?  What is the point of the “half-way” play?  Why do they tag up so seldom on that play?

And they entire Teix AB was missed so they could chat with the Sock pitching coach.

[43] Half-way on that play made sure he got to third, if he had tagged he doesn’t get to third.

Dunno why they’re swinging so much against Dice-K.  Not a lot in the zone.

Nice one, A-Rod.  Really good.

What a BS third strike call! Do these umpires have something against the Yankees?

So far luck really is, infuriatingly, just as good as good.

What was the interference call?

Obstruction on Rodriguez for stepping toward first on what he thought was ball four and preventing Martinez from throwing.  Of course, Martinez wasn’t going to throw anyway, because he thought it was ball four too.

Also, last inning was a great example why Ellsbury is not a good CF. Took a horrible route, and then darted and dove at the ball. Sometimes his speed lets him catch those balls that become ESPN web gems, but sometimes things like that also happen.

He is a guy with great speed, and that’s about it.

[54] Ta.  Guess that was the umpire telling A-Rod to respect his authoritay.

Nice, consistent zone we have today, huh?

I haven’t been able to watch much but I’ll concur with everyone here that the umpires suck.

[57] I voted for robot umpires when we had that discussion. I am sure Roomba and QuesTek could put something together by the start of next season.

Serious question: what is the retirement age for MLB umpires? What kind of contracts do they sign? And what kind of competence tests do they have to take?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Everyone see [55]

[60] 125 years old. Lifetime contracts. No tests, only requirement is a pulse and willingness to allow Sox players to shout at you without tossing them.

Ted is on fire! Give this man a beer (or an alcoholic beverage of his choice)!

I assume this Tim McCarver album that is now out is of similar quality to “Franklin Comes Alive”.

Doesn’t Roomba have to play third base?

Cano built up all that angst in him by not swinging last inning and walking. So he had to hack at the first one.

Crap, there’s an open base open now with Molina up.  Now they can just pitch around him.

Seriously, what would it take for Jose Molina to not play? Not that Cervelli is much better or anything, but in a choice between -1 and 0, I will choose 0.

I see how Matsuzaka is operating. Somehow get to Molina with two outs. There is an auto out waiting for you.

How long is Dice-K going to survive this high WHIPiness?

Dammit.  Typing outpaced thinking on that one.  7 base-runners in 4 innings and no runs.

Dude, DaPuj. Doesn’t it seem like we always send similar comments at the exact same time?

[68] Cano has a personal rule that he will only take a total of 4 pitches per game. It’s unfortunate he burned them all up already.

[73] - Yeah.  I feel bad for you if we think alike.

Um, strike three??!!

Maybe we’re the same person. Or I’m just watching you from your closet.

Did Ortiz just point at the umpire and whine?

Molina should have jumped up to throw that.  Kellogg would have called obstruction.

Everyone see [76]

GD isn’t upset on that one.  Nor the earlier one either, I think.

And now Lowrie is arguing. Great.

Did Ortiz just point at the umpire and whine?

Isn’t that he always does whenever he makes an out?

Ok, let’s get this offense thing going.

What the heck does Lowrie have to argue?

[80] Well, my eyes were upset by both calls, and if I have learned one thing from the Sox, it’s to argue EVERY call that doesn’t go your way.

So I found this.

Umpires must meet some basic requirements:
• High school diploma or G.E.D.
• Reasonable body weight
• 20/20 vision (with or without corrective lenses)
• Good communication skills
• Quick reflexes, good coordination
• Some athletic ability
• Required preliminary training for the job (i.e., professional umpire school)

If these are strictly applied, I see not a single umpire on this field that should keep his job. Particularly the athletic ability part.

[86] I’m assuming that the athletic ability part goes pretty much hand in hand with “Reasonable body weight.”

“[86] I’m assuming that the athletic ability part goes pretty much hand in hand with “Reasonable body weight.””

David Ortiz hates umpires because he couldn’t be one.

WHIP, WHIP, WHIPPITY WHIP.

When will it catch up?

I assume that if you keep playing with fire, eventually you will…

Alex, please get a run in. And don’t swing at junk. A walk is as good as a hit here.

Ahh for fuck’s sake!

very unclutch or was it a squeeze play?  shoulda gone the suicide squeeze route

You must be joking.  2 AB’s, 2 pitches, 2 balls that don’t go more than 5 feet from the plate.

what the fuck! How is this even fucking possible. Fuck Matsuzaka!

let’s all channel Cano and swing at the first pitch why don’t we

Ok, there is a reason why this high WHIP strategy is working; the Yankees are swinging at the junk Matsuzaka is offering once they have the bases full.

This is WOE worthy.

Hope Swisher gets one around Pesky’s pole here.

I’m thinking walk for this PA.

Pathetic.

Page 1 of 3 pages:  1 2 3 >
0 of 963 registered readers are currently logged in.
There are currently 68 visitors who are not logged in.
There was a record 241 simultaneous visitors on May 2, 2011 at 11:54:25 pm.

Does Robinson Cano’s Approach Change With Men on Base?
(50 Comments - 1/26/2010 10:44:25 am)

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
(14 Comments - 1/25/2010 10:56:33 pm)

One Of The Following Stories May or May Not Be True
(26 Comments - 1/25/2010 1:51:23 pm)

What Happened to Wang?
(13 Comments - 1/24/2010 11:53:14 pm)

NY Times - Glanville: Seeing is Disbelieving
(62 Comments - 1/24/2010 9:27:27 pm)

RealGM Baseball: Yankees Among Teams Interested In Edmonds
(3 Comments - 1/23/2010 4:52:40 pm)

Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?
(65 Comments - 1/22/2010 10:24:20 am)

CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16
(35 Comments - 1/21/2010 2:53:01 pm)

MLB.com - Bauman: Yankees appear stronger
(18 Comments - 1/21/2010 5:21:26 am)

TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
(5 Comments - 1/20/2010 9:00:27 am)



*ADVERTISEMENT*
Our new URL is: http://www.rlyw.net
*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

image
Way back in the 20th century, Bill James wrote the first essential book about baseball managers. Chris Jaffe has just written the second.
- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com

From now on, whenever I have a question about a manager, Jaffe's book will be the first and last one I reach for.
- Sean Forman, Baseball-Reference.com


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*
John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*