Friday, September 25, 2009
RedSox (91-61) @ Yankees (97-56), Friday, September 25, 2009, 7:05pm **Mismatch Chatter**
Lineups
Boston Red Sox
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (.303/.350/.421, 1.9 WAR)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (.301/.372/.447, 4.3 WAR)
Victor Martinez, 1B (.299/.379/.472, 7.0 WAR)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B (.302/.410/.542, 4.6 WAR)
David Ortiz, DH (.237/.331/.459, 0.4 WAR)
Jason Bay, LF (.265/.386/.545, 3.2 WAR)
J.D. Drew, RF (.267/.386/.495, 3.6 WAR)
(.210/.316/.395, 0.8 WAR)
Alex Gonzalez, SS (.302/.308/.476, 0.9 WAR)
Total, (.278/.366/.472, 26.7 WAR)
1916 Philadelphia Athletics
Derek Jeter, SS (.329/.397/.460, 5.4 WAR)
Johnny Damon, LF (.285/.365/.497, 3.2 WAR)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.292/.383/.567, 5.1 WAR)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.283/.402/.519, 3.0 WAR)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.278/.370/.525, 2.1 WAR)
Jorge Posada, C (.283/.360/.529, 1.3 WAR)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.320/.350/.515, 3.0 WAR)
Nick Swisher, RF (.251/.366/.495, 2.7 WAR)
Melky Cabrera, CF (.273/.332/.416, 1.3 WAR)
Total, (.291/.370/.502, 27.1 WAR)
Yankee Win Probability: -100.0%
Regular readers know that the most important consideration in baseball is the business side of things. The Yankees opened New Yankee Stadium this year and have put a very good team on the field, which has clearly been good for business. However, the one thing they haven’t done yet in NYS is clinch a division title. Clinching a division title after missing the playoffs entirely in 2008 would be huge.
1) Playoff games mean additional revenue
2) Playoff games mean additional exposure in postseason advertising
3) Playoff games mean more concessions sold
4) Playoff games mean more good will amongst your fan base
5) Playoff games make it more likely to sell out your tickets
6) More sellouts induce product scarcity, which creates greater demand for ALL tickets
6) All that means PROFIT
7) PROFIT IS GOOD FOR BUSINESS
So yeah, the Yankees need to win the division. If they don’t sweep this series, they can’t clinch the division in front of Boston at home. Clinching the division in front of Boston at home is important. They can’t sweep this series if they don’t win tonight’s game. That makes tonight’s game seriously important.
It won’t be easy. While Zack Greinke deserves to win the Cy Young and probably will, Lester has been outpitching him over their last 20 starts.
Lester: 135.3 IP, 102 H, 8 HR, 39 BB, 153 K, 2.13 ERA, 2.59 FIP, Opponents hitting: .207/.264/.297
Greinke: 134.3 IP, 120 H, 11 HR, 35 BB, 141 K, 2.68 ERA, 2.99 FIP, Opponents hitting: .237/.288/.368
So not only do the Yankees have to deal with Lester, they’re throwing out Joba Chamberlain, who’s been awful lately. It’s possibly his last chance to make a case for being the fourth starter in the postseason, and we know he’s shown the talent to be a good starter before, so maybe he’ll surprise us and not give up seven runs in the second inning.
Go Yankees.
Comments
“so maybe he’ll surprise us and not give up seven runs in the second inning.”
Do you suppose there is any chance-any chance at all that Girardi has a backup plan tonight to pull his butt early (ie: not after 7 runs)if he begins to come apart yet again?
As you suggest this is probably uphill to begin with with Lester on the mound, but to start the series with their best against our worst (I think he is at the moment) -kind of stinks. BTW, if he brings in Towers, I can’t consider that a plan at all.
I’m not crazy about Chamberlain to open this series either, but this rotation does line Sabathia up to pitch on October 7. Hard as it is to imagine given the most bodacious excellence of SG’s discourse above, the game scheduled for October 7 is even more important than this evening’s tilt.
Joba doesn’t suck, he just felt the Yankees were overestimating his innings limit and decided to take the matter into his own hands.
I never would have guessed a year ago that a late season meeting between Joba and Lester would result in Lester being the overwhelming favorite. I think its fair to say that in a great season Joba has been the biggest disappointment. Here’s hoping the role reversal starts tonight.
New Evony ad - and this one isn’t sweating. Surely that augurs good fortune this afternoon.
That CAPITAL “c” looks like something out of one of Rilkekind’s books - I’ll have to come up with a baseball alphabet for him. Hmm, can’t even think of a good “a”. “At-bat”?
Never mind I forgot the folker, Lester, was so good last year, but still where have you gone Joba Chamberlain?
But… Joba pitches well against Detroit, doesn’t he? Perplexing situation.
What is the chance that Joba can match or out-pitch Lester? 2.3%? Lower?
Tonight Joba outpitches Lester.
Pete Abe:
UPDATE, 4:25 p.m.: Nothing official, but the Yankees appear to be setting up Andy Pettitte to start Game 2 of the ALDS.
The rotation starting Monday is Gaudin, Burnett, Chamberlain, Sabathia, Pettitte and Burnett.
Interesting indeed.
Lester is now our ALDS Game 1 starter, apparently. FWIW…
Oh good, I’ll be at the game tonight to watch Joba fail with all his might through 2 1/3 innings.
On the bright side, I’ll get to leave early to go home to drink heavily by myself.
Burnett’s ERA is more than a run lower at home. Pettitte’s is more than a run lower on the road. Why not switch them?
SSF - How’s that play with Hemp-Neck?
The 1916 Philadelphia Athletics played the game the right way.
“Burnett’s ERA is more than a run lower at home. Pettitte’s is more than a run lower on the road.”
SSS? Differing relative strength faced home/away? The view that game three is most important?
False info actually. Here’s the update from Pete:
UPDATE, 6:03 p.m.: The Yankees now say that Joe Girardi mis-spoke about the rotation for the KC series. It’s actually:
Burnett
Gaudin
Chamberlain
LMAO at the huge C above. SG, you’re awesome.
Lester had a great year last year, but Joba’s aside from the difference in innings was hands down better. Coming in to this season there was no reason to believe that Lester would be a decidedly better pitcher than Joba.
if joba outpitches lester tonight, i will buy playoff tickets for every yankees playoff game no matter what they cost and fly all around the country to see those games.
It was discussed in the last thread by others…but I’ll add my two cents and say that Pete Abe went way up in my book today with his retort to Kruk’s gibberish.
Careful, Schteeve…Lester started the season almost as terribly as Joba has been for the last month and a half. Pitchers can turn on a dime.
Tonight Joba outpitches Lester.
So you’re saying NYY will lead BOS 8-7 after 2 ?
Dave, i’d gladly spend the cash if it happened. my wife will kill me, but she’s a cubs fan, she doesn’t understand.
94-95 in the first inning? Joba might have woken up.
I’ll take it.
ALREADY a much better start than the previous one.
Optimism, people! Optimism!
Oh, SG, I was going to ask, is V-Mart’s WAR relative to catchers? 7.0 seems really, really high.
That’s a Captain.
Jeter is running a ton in the past week or so. Must really want 30 steals.
Hooray for strong first inning Joba!
Jeter swung at the first pitch. Beckett is probably giving him the evil eye.
That sucked.
Good eye by the ump on the second pitch. Stellar.
“Beckett is probably giving him the evil eye.”
?
What can Alex do for us here?
Run(s), that’s what.
A is for Alex.
Yay rod.
Clutch-Rod?
Yay Alex!!! SG will need to update his numbers from the last post!
Wow, that 2-0 strike to Matsui better also go for Joba. That was low AND outside…
The Yankees running on Varitek makes me happy.
Yanks want to embarrass the big C.
Is it fair to run on Varitek ? I mean, seeing as how he sucks and all. It just seems like they’re taking unfair advantage.
I am all in favor of embarrassment.
Double steal ? Cripple and a Zombie ?
Captain may shove someone in the face if they run too much on him, but bring it on.
Yowza, Lester looks pretty nasty.
I’m liking this 26 pitch inning thing. I’d like it even more if Po can summon Prowess.
Captain trying to trick umps. Not cool.
Did TBS get the Boston announcers for this game?? WTF…
Twice as many pitches for Lester as for Joba thus far.
Can we keep that going?
Come on.
Was that pitch as inside as GD had it?
Holy shit that was an awful call.
I think the ump bailed Lester out there. Still, probably too close to take for Po.
I think the best attribute of Lester is how he can pitch to the inside corners to righties.
[55] since gameday uses Questec. Yes, yes it was.
Wow. “Strike 3” crossed the batters box. What total bullshit this is.
Annoying inning. Stupid Varitek.
Ball one to Youkilis is a strike on gameday. Oh well, whatever.
Every single Yankees game live in Ireland they show a Kelly montage during innings breaks. You would honestly think he was the best player on the team. It is getting extremely annoying
I guess Varitek doesn’t start at all in the post-season though.
Perhaps the ump did us a favor by allowing Cano to hit with the bases empty.
Yay Swish!
BABIP better revert to the mean before this game is over.
Yay Joba! Keep going!
That was awesome.
So, why exactly do the Angels have a tough time with the RS? Can’t they just run all over them?
I love this version of Joba. Can we keep him? Can we? Please?
That just means the blow up Joba inning will be that much worse.
SSF, could you comment on [63]?
Can we possibly have good Joba and good AJ so close together?
anybody watching, how is the contact off of Joba looking?
Live look-in for Bal-Cle. No thanks, gameday.
ALREADY a much better start than the previous one.
63—you can see the pattern as well as me. He’ll get a start or two if we go for a while, but that’s it.
This game is complete bullshit.
This is getting silly with Cano.
Cano is hilarious.
So four routine grounders, three go through. One more and I’m out of here.
Now here is the test, its the movable object (Cano) against the the resistible force (Varitek). Will Cano attempt to steal?
Listening to Buck Martinez fellate Varitek may drive me over to NESN.
Ridiculous.
SSF - look at the GD calls… and YOU’RE upset?
The Yankees are pretty much guaranteeing the Sox do not pickup Tek for next season.
[80]!!!!!
Game is on TBS if anyone wasn’t aware.
Jesus christ, does Lester have to do everything himself?
Is that a good thing?
Who’s the other announcer?
[81] I am already on NESN. Buck Martinez and Sean Casey might be the two worst guys NESN has ever employed. Eckersley is there today, and while he is a homer, he is at least funny.
It’s time for an even bigger C.
Score more runs.
What does the C stand for?
So who will win, Captain Unclutch, or Captain Run on Me?
Well, in Varitek’s case it certainly doesn’t stand for “caught”.
[93] - Can’t throw out runners.
[89] Sounds like J. Peterman.
[89] Chip Carey, who I believe was fired by the Cubs for criticizing their owners on the air.
[93] Calls the best game ever.
I’m enjoying watching the pitch count.
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