SG’s Snark Above Replacement for this post was 15.7.  Especially liked this paragraph:

There is one key point about the pitching projections. Projection systems don’t understand that player skill/talent is static and never changes. They incorrectly assume that a weighted average of the most recent seasons adjusted for context such as league, park and defense combined with regression towards the mean and adjusting for aging tells us more about a player than what that player may have done five or six years ago for a team. So even though Javier Vazquez projects to put up a nice 3.52 ERA, we know for a fact that he is going to have a 4.91 ERA in 2010 because that’s what he did in 2004 for the same exact Yankee team in the same exact stadium against the same exact opposition he faced back then with the same exact pitching coach and the same exact defense behind him.

So even though Javier Vazquez projects to put up a nice 3.52 ERA, we know for a fact that he is going to have a 4.91 ERA in 2010…

You bastard.  First you made me chortle my coffee.  Then you made me dictionary.com it to make sure that was the right word.  Farnsing prick.

Question: Why did Gardner project +5 defensively as a CF (275PA) and only +2 as a LF(500PA)?  I understand less chances, but it should also be an easier position, plus he’s getting almost twice the playing time.

BTW, I just realized I’m short 40 innings on the pitching staff, so depending on where those innings go, we should probably subtract 1-3 wins from the 101 win projections.

I understand less chances, but it should also be an easier position, plus he’s getting almost twice the playing time.

I never combined the defensive projections for IF/OF, so it’s strictly based on his very limited time in LF regressed towards the mean.  If he’s really a +10 CF, then he’d probably be more like a +15 LF, but I think there’s still enough of a question about him being a +10 CF that making him a +15 CF might be a little too optimistic.  But I always encourage everyone to make their own mental adjustments where they see fit.

[4] Probably give them to Logan?

[5] Thanks.  I agree we shouldn’t just assume he’s +15 in LF, but I think +5 is very realistic.  Not that it changes him or the overall projections much, I just couldn’t figure how he went from over 1 WAR in 275PA to less than 1 in 500PA, even w/ the higher standard for offense.

SG: 
From what I can tell the 101 pythag pat wins above is without the 2-3 windownwards “adjustment” you usually make for AL East teams?

From what I can tell the 101 pythag pat wins above is without the 2-3 windownwards “adjustment” you usually make for AL East teams?

Right, 101 should probably be more like 97 after we add in those missing 40 innings and subtract 2 for an AL East penalty.

Right, 101 should probably be more like 97 after we add in those missing 40 innings and subtract 2 for an AL East penalty.

Thanks.  IIRC, the 95 wins or so you had last years team projected as after they signed Tex was also with the AL East 2-3 game penalty.  So this year’s squad is 2-3 games better than last years?

Sometimes “regular” Yankee fans that I know outside of RLYW and the rest of the online baseball circles will contact me for a reaction to a deal and it’s usually tremendously awkward because their views are…not mine. For example, the message I just received about how awesome it is that one of Joba or Hughes can permanently go to the pen now.

For example, the message I just received about how awesome it is that one of Joba or Hughes can permanently go to the pen now.

As a general point, I think the misguided views of mediots have distorted public opinion.

Excellent snark, SG.

300 PA for Juan Miranda?  Really?  Are all those bench PAs just hedging against injuries to the mainstays?

From previous thread (sorry for a partial repeat):

“That scenario would be only if Brett Gardner proves he’s the best center fielder on our club,” Cashman said.

That could mean “best at playing centerfield” (as opposed to “best overall player we’d consider playing in CF), in which case it’s almost a lock to be true.

Boston is better too, but I don’t know if they improved more than the Yankees did.
When Beckett continues giving up between 3 and 5 HRs every other game…

[215]
Does that mean that Pavano would be a good fit for NYA?

And finally:
FUSE and CHAMBER REAM are the stuff that GM (lantern)s’ floating dreams are made of.

Does that mean that Pavano would be a good fit for NYA?

Only on paper…

Feinsand:

Yankees did talk about Zambrano - and Cubs were even willing to take Kei Igawa and his 2 years, $8 million - but they couldn’t work it out.

300 PA for Juan Miranda?  Really?  Are all those bench PAs just hedging against injuries to the mainstays?

Yeah, you basically don’t want to assume good health for everyone if you’re trying to do a realistic projection, but for the hell of it I’ll run an optimistic one and add it to the post.

Ok, makes sense.

You’re putting up a wishcast?  Sweet! 

No need, unless you want to do it.

Damn that was fast.

So I take it, pretty much no regrets about trading Melky, even though he’s young?

Reegie is a funny name.

The OBP Jesus signing is now official.

[21] Not from me.  I have long since given up the idea that he could blossom into mini-Bernie.  Now, to me, the most realistic scenario involves him becoming David DeJesus.

By the way, harking back to the last thread, I too thought DNYS meant Da New Yankee Stadium.

At some point, don’t those of us who think that just win by sheer numbers? 

So I take it, pretty much no regrets about trading Melky, even though he’s young?

Nah, not really.  He’s getting to the point where he’s not really cheap anymore, and it’s getting harder to see big upside with him given how he’s developed to this point.  He’s a useful player, but he’s not really irreplaceable.

Arodys Vizcaino looks like the guy we may miss in a few years, but you can say that about a lot of low A arms that got traded over the years, and it generally doesn’t happen.

At some point, don’t those of us who think that just win by sheer numbers?

The problem is, one lightning bolt vote = 1,000,000 peanut votes, and I say it stands for Disgraceful New Yankee Stadium.  Perhaps you can buy Fabian’s vote?

I was fairly certain it stood for Disgraceful as well.

So now they have to buy Larry’s and Jonathan’s votes just to tie?

Where’s your vaunted math?  Larry (bought) and Jonathan (bought) plus peanuts/1,000,000 = CLEAR, DELICIOUS VICTORY!
Well, except for the buying them out part.

Am I alone in not fully buying Brett Gardner as an elite defensive CF?  First, I seem to recall scouting reports saying that he doesn’t get great jumps, but can make up for it with his speed, which seems to jibe with what I saw this year.  Secondly, his great UZR this year is a) accumulated in 99 games, and b) propped up by a great ARM rating.  Since he doesn’t have a gun and seems to have a tendency to lawn dart, I’d be surprised to see that continue.  (Although his arm isn’t strong enough for him to fall in love with it the way Melky did, so there’s a plus).

Overall, I see him as a good defensive player, but not a great one, and certainly not worthy of displacing Granderson.

What does CAIRO say about the Gardner in CF/Granderson in LF alignment, just to toss around?

Heyman:

SI_JonHeyman
 
heard #giants offered mark derosa $12 mil, 2-yr deal. but is ex-brave and NJ product waiting for atlanta, #mets or #yanks?

Am I alone in not fully buying Brett Gardner as an elite defensive CF?

No several people here aren’t sure of that either.

First, I seem to recall scouting reports saying that he doesn’t get great jumps, but can make up for it with his speed, which seems to jibe with what I saw this year.

One of the problems with getting “scouting reports” on a guy like Gardner is I don’t think he was ever a guy that a lot of scouts went to watch.  IOW, you may get a scout that saw him play once - and Gardner happened to have a head-cold that day - didn’t like what he saw.  Someone here (well the old site) got me following Gardner years ago (when Gardner was in SI), and LOVED his defense, so take that for what it’s worth.

Overall, I see him as a good defensive player, but not a great one, and certainly not worthy of displacing Granderson.

Part of the problem is trying to figure out what Granderson is.  3 and 4 years ago (by UZR) he was a great defensive CF.  The last two years he was around average.  So say Granderson is average and Gardner is +5 (good but not great), and you are going to play them both anyway (best two outfielders you have).  Why is it a problem to move Granderson to LF and Gardner to CF?  As long as Granderson is OK with it, why not save 5 runs a year?

[33] Pass on that much.  As I mentioned in the other thread, I like him as a bench player who *could* hit well enough to play LF (and if MC responded to that I haven’t been able to read it yet).  I’d be OK w/ the Yankees overpaying for that, but not paying him starter money.  If they are willing to go that high (and number of years) for a LF, hold out for Damon to wise up.

SG, have you considered limiting the # of comments that display to like 100?  I seem to be having more problems with the pages w/ a lot of comments on them.  More comments you display = more bytes over the network.

In other news, I’m getting an error when I try to go load the previous thread.

ESPN Headline: “Umpires, MLB agree to five-year labor deal”

Let us hope it is the last one.

So even though Javier Vazquez projects to put up a nice 3.52 ERA, we know for a fact that he is going to have a 4.91 ERA in 2010 because that’s what he did in 2004 for the same exact Yankee team in the same exact stadium against the same exact opposition he faced back then with the same exact pitching coach and the same exact defense behind him.

Is it okay to be happy with the Yankees’ offseason, be respected on this site, and also be skeptical of Vazquez’ CAIRO projection?  The skepticism isn’t just based on 2004.  It’s based on 2004, 2006, and 2008, and his career AL ERA of 4.52, for a career AL ERA+ of 102.

Also, many here were concerned giving up young players—admittedly far more advanced and better young players—for Halladay, and were also concerned about Halladay’s presence blocking the development of Joba and Hughes.  Is it completely insane to wonder if Vazquez were to simply match his CAREER AL ERA of 4.52, that maybe Joba and Hughes could do the same without giving up any young players—however mediocre or far off they may be—while not blocking the development of Joba/Hughes?  And that the $11.5M spent on Vazquez could have been better put toward a premium left fielder?

Now, I happen to believe that the Yankees are still after a premium left fielder, in which case, I love this offseason.  But if they don’t bring in a left fielder, I’ll have some minor reservations.  If that’s okay with everyone.

If that’s okay with everyone.

Yeah, I am not yet convinced that this offseason is an unqualified success. They may be better than they were last year, but I don’t think any of us would be surprised if Vazquez put up a 4.50 ERA, Nick Johnson spent half the year on the DL   and Granderson regressed further offensively and defensively. But the only way to really guarantee that you are a powerhouse team is to bring in mega-stars like Sabathia and Teixeira every year, and even the Yankees can’t afford to do that (and I am assuming they are not really going to pursue Holliday the way they did Teixeira last year).

But all these deals are safe and short-term, and none cost a lot of money, so if they look like they are similar to last year’s world championship team without having to add expensive long-term contracts, then you really can’t fault what (lantern) has done.

Another way to look at the Vazquez deal is that Cashman understands that it is possible that Vazquez will be booed off the mound the first time he gives up 3 home runs to the Sox in The Disgrace, but he simply doesn’t care. Maybe this is him saying that this move is good even if Vazquez is just a league average innings eater, and the fans will be happy with a first-place finish, whether or not Cashman ends up being the toast of the town come November. That is a little Theo of him, but maybe that is OK.

SAS, I agree.  But i’m more conflicted as to whether or not I like the deal.  On the plus side I believe they needed starting pitching depth. However, like you, I did not want that depth to come at a cost of delaying the starting development of Joba or Hughes.  Say what you want about a plan of action, in my mind if you take a ML starting pitcher out of a ML starting pithcing role you’re hindering his development.  Also, I think the depth could have been filled with a less expensive (in terms of money and prospects) option that would have sufficed.  Theoretically you would then have that additional money available for an OF upgrade…

[39, 40]
That’s all fine, but I think you need to place these expectations.
Given the stable peripherals, I’d imagine there’s a much better chance that he exceeds your expectations (e.g., by performing up to those peripherals - which is exactly what he did last year) than that his performance is significantly worse than your expectations (that would be much more radically out of line with his history).
If that’s so, then your predictions are not average predictions, but baseline predictions - we wouldn’t expect much worse, but we could easily see much better (see last season).  That’s a perfectly acceptable baseline, esp. added to the very real possibility, an already-actually-demonstrated possibility, of performance on a much higher level.
All in all, it seems pretty good to me.

Is it completely insane to wonder if Vazquez were to simply match his CAREER AL ERA of 4.52, that maybe Joba and Hughes could do the same without giving up any young players

Valid, but one thing I would point out is that there’s probably better than even odds that some starter gets injured for a period of time.  So really, Vazquez is replacing Mitre/Gaudin innings more than he is replacing Joba/Hughes innings.

[34] Granderson has enough defensive chops that he should be playing CF for the rest of his contract (unless he happens to fall off a cliff), so he should not be displaced unless it’s for the markedly superior defender, and Gardner hasn’t proven that he is.  (And even if he is, it may not be a significant amount.)  My argument is why shift a franchise-type player for someone who’s league average-ish if everything breaks right?  Gardner may not even be on the team at the AS break, so why plan around him?

Vazquez bumps one of JobaPhil down the depth chart, which then pushes Gaudin/Mitre/etc one guy farther from starting a game for the Yankees.

As such, 200 IP of 4.50 ERA ball can still be viewed as a nice upgrade.

one lightning bolt vote = 1,000,000 peanut votes, and I say it stands for Disgraceful New Yankee Stadium.

I am thus bested.

Aaaaaaaaand, DaPuj beats me to the punch.

For those who are worried about the Yankees signing DeRosa, a lot of people are referencing Cashman’s’ interview on MLB Network yesterday. I happen to catch it, and here’s how it went:

Talking Head #1 (paraphrasing): “Any new moves in the works, particularly LF?”

Cashman: “We are working on some things. We have one move in the works that I can’t speak to but you guys have talked about at length.”

Talking Heads #1-#4 proceed to spin themselves into a frenzy about Cashman seemingly verifying that the Yankees are getting Mark DeRosa. Cashman was quite obviously referring to signing Nick Johnson, but not being able to speak about it explicitly because the signing had not yet become official.

I know of at least one Yankees blogger who hitched his wagon to this star. It’s not his worst mistake all year, that’s for sure.

I’ll sign up for terrible offseasons like this every year.

i think it’s a terrible offseason for 2 reasons:

1. because of the cost in youth, relative to the return, is IMO a ripoff. For:

Ajax
Vizcaino
Coke
IPK
Dunn
Melky

In exchange, the Yanks got:
  a. a flawed CF : an excellent fielder who can mash righties but who is pathetic against lefties (.210/.270/.344 career).
  b. Vasquez, whose 2004 was not a fluke, given his 2005, 2006, 2008 seasons. While I hope CAIRO is right, it seems way too optimistic.

2. Because a consequence of this “strategy” by the F.O. is that the Yanks are losing Johnny Damon, which i see as an incredibly stupid, unnecessary decision if u can get him for 2 years. 

What I mean is that if there really is a budget, I’d much rather my roster stocked with Damon, Ajax, Vizcaino, Coke, IPK, Dunn & Melky than with a platoon CF and a 33-year-old pitcher with a 102 ERA+ in 4 AL seasons and a 110 ERA+ in 8 AAAAA seasons, plus only $4 million supposedly left to spend on a LF - which apparently isn’t enough to get even a mediocrity such as Mark Derosa.

In my preferred scenario, you have some money for an innings-eater - which is all i see Vasquez as - and some young role player who can either be used or developed for the future or traded as chips.

Here’s the exact quote:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/313248-new-york-yankees-closing-in-on-mark-derosa

Read it realizing that Nick Johnson hadn’t been officially announced yet. Sort of funny.

I understand some of your concerns, but calling Granderson a platoon CF - and I know the splits - is preposterous.

What does CAIRO say about the Gardner in CF/Granderson in LF alignment, just to toss around?

CAIRO projects Gardner’s defense around five runs better than Granderson in CF, although as I said it’s still based on a pretty small sample size.  It’s certainly possible that one may translate better than the other in LF, but it doesn’t seem that swapping them would mean more than a few runs of difference either way.

SG, have you considered limiting the # of comments that display to like 100?

It’s set at 300 now, I could try dropping it to 100 and see if it helps.

Is it okay to be happy with the Yankees’ offseason, be respected on this site, and also be skeptical of Vazquez’ CAIRO projection?

No. It is required to agree with everything I write.  To not do so is justification for a banning.

I have no problem with anyone disagreeing with whatever they want.  Especially projections, since as I’ve stated a million times, they are inherently limited.  I’m willing to listen to reasonable arguments for said disagreements, and am willing to have an open mind about it as well.  But I am not really going to listen to lazy arguments that don’t make logical sense (and that’s not directed at anyone in particular).

a. a flawed CF : an excellent fielder who can mash righties but who is pathetic against lefties (.210/.270/.344 career).

Granderson is way better than a platoon CF, and his career platoon splits to date are not in a large enough sample size to tell us that he’s this bad against lefties.  Anyway, his estimated value already includes those pathetic platoon splits, so we can account for that. 

b. Vasquez, whose 2004 was not a fluke, given his 2005, 2006, 2008 seasons. While I hope CAIRO is right, it seems way too optimistic.

It may be.  We’ll see.  Projecting pitching is always an iffy proposition anyway.

2. Because a consequence of this “strategy” by the F.O. is that the Yanks are losing Johnny Damon, which i see as an incredibly stupid, unnecessary decision if u can get him for 2 years

It sure didn’t sound like Damon was willing to come back for two years when he told the Yankees 3 years and no pay cut or don’t bother calling.  Besides, I’m not sure Damon’s really going to be able to repeat his 2009 for the next two seasons.  In fact, I’d bet pretty good money he won’t.  Granderson is a better hitter than Damon.  He’s a better defender than Damon.  He’s younger, and he’s signed to a better contract.  How is that possibly a downgrade?

What I mean is that if there really is a budget, I’d much rather my roster stocked with Damon, Ajax, Vizcaino, Coke, IPK, Dunn & Melky than with a platoon CF and a 33-year-old pitcher with a 102 ERA+ in 4 AL seasons and a 110 ERA+ in 8 AAAAA seasons, plus only $4 million supposedly left to spend on a LF - which apparently isn’t enough to get even a mediocrity such as Mark Derosa.

I’ve already given my thoughts on Damon.  Ajax may turn out to be a good player, but his stats to this point sure don’t indicate it happening in 2010.  He’ll have to make more than the typical gains a player of his age makes to even approach league average by his peak.  It could happen, but if he had another unimpressive year in AAA this year his trade value would probably have dropped a lot.
 
Yeah, Vizcaino could be awesome in three or four years.  And Ricardo Aramboles and Luis De Los Santos were going to be awesome too. 

I liked Coke, but he’s easily replaceable. 

If the Yankees can’t fit Joba and Hughes in the rotation, where does that leave IPK? 

Michael Dunn would be great if he could cut his walk rate down to 7 men per 9 innings, and Melky’s at best a league average hitter who can play solid to plus defense in the OF and who’s about to hit arbitration and start to get paid a non-trivial amount of money.

The Yankees are also running into 40 man roster issues, as we saw with them losing Kroenke and Kaneoka Texeira.  While it’s nice to think all these minor leaguers we hear about are on the verge of contributing, you can’t keep them all, and most of them aren’t going to be worth holding on to.

You’re WAAAY overrating the Yankee farmhands and way underrating the players the Yankees got.  Even if Vazquez pitches like A.J. Burnett, with an ERA in the low 4s, he’s worth what he cost in terms of talent and salary, plus he’ll be a Type A free agent in 2010 and will likely bring back two high draft picks.  You’re only on the hook for one season with him, so he doesn’t tie up your budget long-term either.

[47] - Granderson has extreme splits, but remember, he’s got them the right way.  70% of Damon’s PA last season were against RHP, you can probably expect about the same for Granderson, maybe even a touch higher if he gets rested at strategic points (72% of his PA in 2009 were against RHP).  Even with a low BABIP of .275 in 2009 he still put up a decent line.  I’m expecting him to bounce back at least a little.

I understand why they are what they are, but I’m definitely taking the over on Swisher’s and Granderson’s projections.  Also, Cashman indicated here that neither Hughes nor Chamberlain would see much of an innings cap.

I understand some of your concerns, but calling Granderson a platoon CF - and I know the splits - is preposterous.

Wombat Pete, why is it preposterous to characterize Granderson as such, given the #s? 

it seems .210/.270/.344 is the definition of someone who could be considered platoon-able.

jeez, if CAIRO’s right about Gardner being a bit better than Granderson defensively, and if Gardner’s admittedly small sample size of splits is representative, it slightly increases your chance of winning to even put Gardner out there against lefties.  (not that i hope this is the plan!)

I think that some of us are just worried because the Yanks have had absolutely terrible luck with pitchers coming over form the NL the last 10 years or so. We have discussed it before, and I am not going to rehash all of it, because I know that it isn’t logical to predict that every NL superstar is going to become a disaster once they set foot in DNYS. It just scares me a little, is all, and no matter how hard I try I literally can’t force myself to even imagine Vazquez mustering a 3.50 ERA in the AL East. I would give anyone 2:1 odds that he doesn’t match his projection.

Still, I think the Yanks are fine even if he doesn’t.

As for depleting the farm system—I don’t imagine any of those guys being starters with the Yanks in the next 2 years, so I don’t worry about it too much. They are mostly trade bait, and they got traded for decent players that aren’t too expensive, so I can’t worry about it too much. Also, most of those guys have been around a little and they probably deserve the chance to go out and prove themselves with some lesser teams. I mean, what was IPK going to be for the Yankees? Probably he gets 30 IP all year. Let him go out west and get some starts in AAAA and make some money. The Yankees still have 5 guys just like him who could step into the rotation if there are injuries, and winning AAA championships is nice but it’s kind of unfair to those guys.

SG, i’m glad there’s no ban for disagreeing.

a couple of comments:

Granderson is a better hitter than Damon.  He’s a better defender than Damon.  He’s younger, and he’s signed to a better contract.  How is that possibly a downgrade?

no doubt Granderson’s a better defender, but Damon’s been a more consistent hitter so far.  the lefty thing is a problem - Damon can stay in the lineup against lefties without killing you.

what i don’t like is that the Yanks seemed to view it as an either-or. It seems adding Granderson and keeping Damon - whom I’m sure they knew they could have negotiated downwards to 2 years - was the way to play it.

The Yankees are also running into 40 man roster issues, as we saw with them losing Kroenke and Kaneoka Texeira. <i>

<i>You’re WAAAY overrating the Yankee farmhands and way underrating the players the Yankees got.

well, i’m glad hopefully you are right.  It’s not the individual moves - i actually like the Granderson trade in and of itself - it’s the overall effect of losing my LF and a bunch of youth in exchange for an innings-eater & Granderson.

Get me Damon and, while i’m leery of Vasquez, i’d feel the team has some depth if poor Nick Johnson goes down.  As opposed to getting Derosa, or someone lesser than Derosa, which is what the budget demands, if the press is to be believed.

Nick Johnson passed his physical without getting hurt!  Huzzah!

. In the Hughes rotation/Joba bullpen scenario, the Yankees’ team would project to do this:

Does it make sense that a Joba Rotation has a worse WAR but a better pythagenpat?  Is Hughes in the pen really worth more when comparing these two scenarios?

I’m also a little confused by the Joba/Phil comparison.  Joba has a better RA/ERA, but Phil has a better WAR.  I’m pretty sure I remember you saying you don’t like calculating WAR by using FIP, right?

Yeah, there’s something screwy with the WAR there, but the overall runs allowed looks correct.  With Joba in the rotation they’re projected to allow two fewer runs overall so they should have a better Pythagenpat.  Something is probably getting screwed up when I convert Hughes to a starter, but I’ll check it.

Anyway, two runs over 1400+ innings is essentially meaningless.  The larger point is that it shouldn’t really matter which of the two goes to the rotation and which of the two goes to the pen in terms of the team’s results, although there are development reasons where it may be advantageous to choose one over the other.

[54]
George, you posted that quite a while after SG’s posts, which explained why.  There were also involved discussions on this site about why even relatively splits may not suggest that radical splits are likely to continue.  And that when the overall slash line is as good as Granderson’s, it would make sense to let try to carry over talent into hitting lefties, too.
In the spirit of that conversation… do you think that Ryan Howard is a platoon player?  You probably should.

Quoth Cashman regarding left field:

“We’ll see where this takes us. It won’t be a big-name situation, I can promise you that.”

This means it will be a big-name situation. Remember this is the same Cashman (lantern) who said the Yanks were done with free-agent signings shortly before signing Mark Teixeira and who said that Bubba Crosby was their everyday center fielder shortly before signing Johnny Damon and who gave no indication whatsoever that he was signing Roger Clemens in 2007 until the day he signed him.

The Yankees GM lies like cheap carpet. Always has. His ability to manipulate the media may be his finest skill.

do you think that Ryan Howard is a platoon player?

i just checked Howard’s splits. his splits aren’t as extreme:  .226/.310/.444. His OBP & SLG are much higher than Granderson’s.  Howard’s twice as likely to pop a homer off of a lefty than Granderson. Much less of a liability. 

the arguments - yep, i understand them. the past is not always a predictor of the future.  but it’s what we have, and so far he’s particularly dreadful against lefties.

on another topic,i was giving some thought to predicting Damon. His age 36-37 years are hard to predict because his age 30-35 seasons are better than his pre-30 seasons, going by OPS+. That’s what i see after a casual look at the various types of similar players according to baseball reference - his age trajectory is much different than, say,  Cesar Cedeno, Amos Otis, Willie Davis,etc. 

The ones listed he seems most similar to in this respect are Jose Cruz & Steve Finley - which are positive precedents for Damon, for whatever that is worth.

I think Reed Johnson would be a nice fit, and I can’t imagine the price tag would be high.

b. Vasquez, whose 2004 was not a fluke, given his 2005, 2006, 2008 seasons.

No, it wasn’t a fluke, it was an injury:

Vazquez was an All-Star that season for the Yankees, but he acknowledged on Tuesday that his shoulder bothered him in a dismal second half that concluded with a beatdown in Game 7 of the 2004 American League Championship Series against Boston.

The disparity between his 2004 Pre AS v. Post AS ERA is greater than in any of his subsequent seasons:

<u>2004</u>

Pre: 3.57
Post: 6.92

<u>2005</u>

Pre: 4.54
Post: 4.28

<u>2006</u>

Pre: 5.07
Post: 4.58

<u>2007</u>

Pre: 3.65
Post: 3.84

<u>2008</u>

Pre: 4.61
Post:  4.74

<u>2009</u>

Pre: 2.95
Post: 2.78

rVazquez is a great strike out pitcher. Since 2004 he hasn’t recorded a K/9 rate lower than 8 and is regularly over 8.5. Also, since 2004 he hasn’t recorded a BB/9 over 2.5 except in 2008. His HR/9 is kind of scary, especially in DNYS but he looks like a pretty good bet to record a K/BB rate around or over 4 (in 2009 it was 5.41).

Arodys hurts, I’ll miss Melky, but I don’t see how you can see this as anything but a good deal. Even if he ends up as an inning eater, with 2 young guys at least 1 of whom is an injury risk and Pettitte on the roster stability is nice.

I would have preferred depth to go behind Joba and Hughes, but I can’t dislike this deal.

[53] Why does the newbie get a bolt? Can I purchase these sort of powers?

Larry (bought) and Jonathan (bought) plus peanuts/1,000,000 = CLEAR, DELICIOUS VICTORY!

Settle down there big fella.  A lot of the peanut precincts haven’t reported yet.

his splits aren’t as extreme

Ryan Howard’s slash line against lefties isn’t as extremely bad, but that’s not the same thing as saying that his splits aren’t as extreme.  Granderson isn’t in Howard’s class as a hitter, but his dropoff vs LHP isn’t any bigger.  Howard’s splits this year were about as extreme as it gets—.433 of OPS difference.  And the difference is over .300 for his career.  Before the WS statrted, one wag wrote that he’s Lou Gehrig against righties and Lou Merloni against lefties.

I sure wish I could get the old thread to load so I could catch up.

No, it wasn’t a fluke, it was an injury

your point is fair that he probably won’t be as lousy as i remember him.

However, in the 5 seasons since 2004, using ERA+ as the performance metric, Vasquez has had 2 below-average seasons, 1 average season, 2 excellent seasons.

so to me, his 2004 fall from his formerly ace status was not a fluke. His subsequent performance indicates you should not get your hopes up for anything but a near-average season; he hasn’t had consistent performance since his 2000-2003 peak, when he was 23-26.

which, now that he mentions injury, may be because his arm has never quite been the same. He did throw a lot of innings back in Montreal….

Prior post should be accessible now.  I had to cut down comments per page to 100.

I’m not sure what I expect Vazquez to do, but if he throws his usual 200-220 innings with an ERA in Pettitte range, it would be easily be valuable enough.  Anything better than that is just a bonus.

[69] But his post AS 2004 wasn’t just below average, it was awful.

As for those two “below average-seasons,” his ERA+  was 98, which is merely marginally below average.

I don’t think he is an ace (although I can recall Minaya selling him as one), but he did improve his changeup last season with Atlanta, which may make it more likely that his effective pitching may be more enduring.

Vazquez led MLB in innings pitched in the aughts with 2,163.  He has thrown at least 198 innings in each season of the decade.  Quick, name another pitcher who has done that.

Still waiting.

Javier Vazquez’ “bad” seasons are extremely valuable.

Prior post should be accessible now.  I had to cut down comments per page to 100.

Thanks.  Turns out I’d only missed about a half a dozen posts.  Hardly worth troubling you over.

Doc?

Was 75 in re 73, thurm?  If so, then no.  Halladay has had three seasons of less than 150 IP since 2000.

BTW, just got back from the fishmonger’s.  The zuppa di pesce is going to be awesome this year.

A lot of the peanut precincts haven’t reported yet.

This peanut is voting for ‘Disgraceful’ rather than ‘Da’.

Although, answering my own question, maybe he would have instead traded a bunch of prospects who never amounted to anything! You know, if you wish to follow the whole “Quantum leap” thing way farther than a simple joke need be followed…

I think further analysis as to the Dr. Sam Beckett aspects of Cashman (lantern)‘s moves is always a good thing. For instance, was I correct in stating that the best way to right the wrong of signing WOEmack was to sign and immediately release him (since he should have been released as soon as Torre tried to bat him 2nd)?

“Theorizing that one could travel within his own lifetime, Dr. Brian Cashman (lantern) stepped into the Quantum Leap accelerator, and vanished.

He awoke to find himself trapped in the past, facing mirror images that were not his own, and driven by an unknown force to change the Yankees for the better. His only guide on this journey is Hal; an owner from his own time, who appears in the form of a hologram that only Brian can see and hear. And so, Dr. Cashman (lantern) finds himself leaping from trade to trade, striving to put right what once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap, will be the leap home.”

Oops.  Four seasons under 150, including only 67.2 in 2000.

[73] He was also 2nd in Ks in that time.

Have I mentioned that Vazquez strikes out a good number of batters he faces?

[76] Aye it was. Just a lazy guess.
I meant to quiz you about the Xmas eve menu. Third times a friggin’ charm.
Doing a antipast from heaven, grilled salmon, massive shrimp and some pipe hitting sea scallops.  Petit filets for the micks and jews. Lots of spuds too.
I’m still under 3 bills for 14 people.
Barely.
Liquor store looms.

There’s nothing better than watching badly dubbed kung fu flicks while writing and downing some nice beer.

Also, I’m a bit worried that Phil Hughes might not start. I’d like to point out that Phil Hughes should start.

[80] But we can’t count those K because some of them occurred in the NL. (Please note we can count Lincecum’s K even though all of them occurred in the NL because he is LINCECUM! and didn’t give up a GS to Damon)

[82] Would you even be in favor of Hughes starting in AAA while they wait to see which starter needs a replacement due to the annual SP injury roulette?

[84] That is if the other option is to send him to the BP with no guarantee he doesn’t get locked into teh ate.

Clay- let me know when you plan on entering the elm city. If you eat and drink at BAR, Hughes has to start 22 games.
So it is written.

If they think that Robertson can handle the 8th (or do so in tandem with Marte), and Joba is the #5 starter, I would not be opposed to having Hughes start the season at SWB, even though on a gut level it will piss me off.

D is for Disgraceful.  It just has to be.

I’m still under 3 bills for 14 people.

Impressive.  I blew $200 just on the fish.  For 19.  Of course, I’m cooking way too much.  It’s in the genes.

So let’s see, besides the zuppa there will be fried smelts, mussels in Gorgonzola cream sauce, linguine with clams (white sauce), linguine with calamari (red sauce), plus a few metric tons of appetizers both fishy and non (for the ‘mericans, capisce?)

Mussels are my friends. Good Mo, life is truly good.

D was never for anything other than Disgraceful. Disgrace was one of our uber-metas, and NYS was so D it was even lamented after road home runs.

Thurm, I’m no beer expert and you’ll laugh, but I just downed a very happy bottle of something called “Winter HumBug’r” from the McTarnahan’s people. It’s a porter that was considerably smoother than, say, Black Butte (that’s pronounced “b-yoot” boys, don’t even start).

I am rather more confident about next year than I was this time last year. I think we were very fortunate that Damon and Matsui had the years they did, and I’m not sanguine about their chances to repeat that. I think Vasquez is much more likely to make the contribution next year that we were hoping to get from Wang last year.

I wouldn’t mind starting Hughes in AAA except that he really should be in the MLs. If the Yankees are willing to commit to getting him starts in the ML then I have no problem with Hughes relieving or starting in AAA.

I may have to take you up on that OTF. Also, good call on the Yakima. I’ve got a six pack here that is not long for this world.

Soup dumplings loom.

Merry Christmas to all!

And to all a good loom!

Picking right now (and really ST is unlikely to change many minds), throw Joba in AAA for a few months, get the extra year, and give Hughes his spot in the rotation.  You can see if Joba’s velocity is returning and teach him to pace himself better in AAA. 

Hughes is going to be arb eligible at the end of 2010 no matter what so you owe it to him to give him an extended look.  Either way it sucks but that’s the situation I think sucks least. 

And this is why even though it was a huge win from a talent swap standpoint, and I LOVE Javy, wish he never left, and I’m glad to see him back.  Even though I’m really excited for this team in 2010 I still don’t love the trade.  I want to see Hughes and Joba get their shot to do well and as Yankees.

but if hughes is arb eligible, the yanks could save money by pretending like they think of him as a reliever.  If he shines as a starter, he’d be do for more money.

I think Hughes and Joba have gotten, are getting, and will get their shots. Like has been mentioned a few times, I think Javy, more than anything, limits the amount of Mitre/Gaudin/AAAA starts that we’ll get this year. I can’t assume AJ and Andy will both stay healthy all year; and this also lets us limit Hughes innings(if we need to, which I think we do) without the controversy of last year with Joba.

I like the deal; especially since it’s just for one year anyway. Very little risk in the scheme of things, and if we so desire, we can bring him back to replace Battle Cat when he retires after back-to-back championships.

[97] - If Hughes can shine as a starter it’s best to find out as soon as possible.

[98] - Javy will be 34 next year.  As I said I really like him but I want no part of a large free agent contract with a 34 year old.

I think the best case (and probably the most likely) scenario is that Vazquez pitches like a #3, enabling the Yankees to reap two draft picks, and then sign Lee, after flirting with Beckett in order to raise his price for the RS.