Monday, September 15, 2008
Putting Linear Weights in Context
As most of the readers here are probably aware, my favorite method for evaluating offensive performance is using batting runs as calculated by linear weights. Linear weights are flexible, thorough, and can be easily manipulated to compare players to average players, replacement-level players, and players who play the same position.
The key to linear weights is understanding that every positive or negative outcome has a commensurate run value. Since runs are the key to winning baseball games, linear weights gives us what I think is the bulk of the information we need to look at why teams score or don’t score, which then tells us why they win or lose.
However, this year, the Yankees have exposed some of the flaws in using a context-neutral statistic like linear weights when looking back at past performance. The normal linear weights formula assume that every single is worth a certain amount, every double is worth a certain amount, every out is worth a certain amount, etc., However, we all know this isn’t really true in real life. A single with runners on second and third is worth more than a single with the bases empty, but in the normal linear weights formula, they’re treated equally.
That’s fine if you are trying to assess the skill level of players, but it’s not quite as useful when looking back at results retroactively. I messed around with the Hardball Times’s version of clutch as defined by Bill James but reader feedback and some more thinking led me to realize that it’s fairly limited. So then I looked at some situational splits using wOBA which I liked better, but that’s more of a rate stat and less useful when trying to look at what it means as far as runs.
I am still morally opposed to WPA because I think it’s far too timing and teammate dependent.
Thankfully, there’s a way to make linear weights more useful in retroactive analysis by contextualizing them. To do this, I’m going to use the information from this study by Tango Tiger called linear weights by men on base. The subject here is coincidentally enough how linear weights value differ based on the different baserunner states. You could take this out to a more precise extreme by factoring in the out states but I think that’s a lot of extra work for very little additional payoff.
So what I did is use the matrix from the article linked above and split out every hitter’s performances in the eight different baserunner states.
-No one on
-Runner on first
-Runner on second
-Runner on third
-Runners on first and second
-Runners on first and third
-Runners on second and third
-Bases loaded
If you look at the chart in the linked article, you can see for example that a single with no one on base is worth .29 runs, and a single with the bases loaded is worth 1.38 runs. So I ran the splits for each of the eight situations above for 2008, and calculated the batting runs per out for each of the eight splits for each player as well as for the average player. Then players are compared to the average player in each splits and their batting runs above average for each of the eight splits are added to get their contextual linear weights value. This is compared to their context-neutral linear weights to get a difference. The bigger the difference, the more productive a player in situations with runners on base. I’m going to use comparisons to average here instead of comparisons to replacement level, and I’m not position-adjusting for now.
One other thing I like about this is it accounts for the fact that strikeouts are more damaging in certain situations. With none on, a strikeout is no worse than any other out (-0.2 runs). Put a runner on third though, and a strikeout is worth -0.48 runs compared to -0.29 for other types of outs.
One issue I have with this data is the data source I’m using (David Pinto’s Day by Day Splits Database) does not differentiate performance for players who’ve played on multiple teams, so I am going to exclude people like Xavier Nady and Richie Sexson in this initial run through, although I can modify my start and end dates to include just their Yankee tenure later on.
So, without further ado, here’s what this measure says for the players who have only seen MLB time with the Yankees this year.
None on: Batting runs above average with no one one base.
1—: Batting runs above average with a runner on first.
-2-: Batting runs above average with a runner on second.
—3: Batting runs above average with a runner on third.
12-: Batting runs above average with runners on first and second.
1-3: Batting runs above average with runners on first and third.
-23: Batting runs above average with runners on second third.
123: Batting runs above average with the bases loaded.
cTotal: contextual linear weights total (all 8 of the above added together)
cnTotal: context-neutral linear weights batting runs above average.
Diff: cTotal - cnTotal
A positive difference between cTotal and cnTotal indicates a player was more productive with runners on base. Alex Rodriguez has been less productive with runners on base this year, and that’s indisputable. However, he’s still been the most valuable offensive player on the Yankees. His critics will ignore that and cherry-pick the numbers that “prove” their point, but they’re wrong.
Bobby Abreu has been more productive this season than his raw numbers show. His defense still stinks though.
Jason Giambi’s hit poorly with runners in scoring position, but he’s done well with runners on first and overall he’s not been as bad with runners on as his RISP numbers make him look.
Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Derek Jeter haven’t been much different with runners on vs. not.
Jose Molina, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano have been equal opportunity suckers for the most part, although Cano’s actually been about five runs worse than his context-neutral numbers show.
Just looking at this set of Yanks, we can see that they’ve fallen around 19 runs worse than they should have so far this season given their actual YTD performance and how it’s translated to runs in linear weights. Their context-neutral linear weights runs above average are 44.5, but when you contextualize it they drop to 25 runs above average.
In actuality the Yankees have been only 8 runs better than average, so we still have to account for 17 runs. If we add in Pudge Rodriguez (-6), Alberto Gonzalez (-7), and Xavier Nady (+5), that’s another -8. So we still have nine or so missing runs, which could just be double plays and/or baserunning issues, or a limitation in this model.
Bear in mind, this is above and beyond their actual underperformance compared to their pre-season projections, particularly for Cano and Cabrera.
The other thing this may be useful for is MVP balloting, if I had a vote. Which I don’t. Here’s a look at the MLB leaders in contextual linear weights.
Remember that this is strictly offense and not position-adjusted. Albert Pujols is just a monster. What’s interesting is the gap between him and Lance Berkman narrows if we contextualize it, although Pujols is still having the better season and this ignores Pujols’s significant defensive edge.
Manny and Teixeira’s numbers are spread across leagues, so they’re not realistic MVP candidates.
The name that pops out to me here is Justin Morneau. His raw stats make him look like a bad MVP candidate, but a lot of intelligent Twins fans insist he’s the Twins’ MVP, and if you look at the shape of his production it makes sense. He’s a barely average performer with no one base, but get runners on and he’s above average in just about every split. He’s neck and neck with Kevin Youkilis, who had a slight edge defensively last I checked.
As with other methods I’ve mentioned or read about, I don’t necessarily think this is an ideal way to look at the issue of clutch either, but it may add something to the discussion.
Comments
As with other methods I’ve mentioned or read about, I don’t necessarily think this is an ideal way to look at the issue of clutch either, but it may add something to the discussion.
“Clutch” I believe exists, but I don’t know how to quantify it. For example, if a player hit a bases-loaded, 2 out home-run in the top of the ninth, in a game their team is up by 10 runs, is it clutch? Of course not! Every “clutch” stat (I think) except for WPA and “close and late” would say it is clutch though (RISP, RISP/2OUT, etc). Lead-off home run in the top of the first against the team you are tied for the WC spot in the last game of the season? Seems pretty clutch to me, but most stats wouldn’t say it was particularly clutch.
I *do* think it is out there; not only hitting but pitching and fielding too. Not sure if we can put a number on it though. And, since we can’t quantify it, I’d be hard-pressed to use it in an argument over which player is “better”.
keep an eye on ted lilly. this could get kinda nutty
phew, put an end to that garbage. NO FUN BASEBALL FOR ANYONE
You know, I really like Jorge Posada. I like that he’s on the team, and hope he recovers and puts up numbers to get into the HOF. But sometimes, he just needs to keep his mouth shut!
I for one
think it would be fun
to see two
no-nos
in a row-row
‘gainst the ‘stro-‘stros.
Until I see evidence that it’s a skill, I’m not going to get excited about hitting on Tuesdays vs non-Tuesdays.
Riddle me this: do pitchers on average tend to perform better or worse in runner-on situations? I’ve always thought that the RISP numbers often depended on the fact that guys who are letting baserunners into scoring position maybe aren’t pitching well. Which makes A-Rod’s numbers in bases-empty situations even more impressive, if no less galling to the detractors.
Mike Francesa all tingly, and sort of Chris Matthews-like, over the Posada remarks re: Joba.
Stupid! A guy with at least three, if not four, quality pitches is wasted as a closer.
I’ve always thought that the ‘w/ runners on’ numbers often depended on the fact that guys who are letting baserunners into scoring position maybe aren’t pitching well.
This sort of thing came up with Randy Johnson when he was with the Yankees. Micheal Kay was convinced that he had an issue with his mechanics from the stretch. Certainly possible, but it never occurred to Kay (and others) that he was pitching bad, let a guy on from the windup, and then continued to pitch bad.
Oops, I changed your RISP to ‘w/ runners on.’ I don’t know why. Multitasking has fried my brain.
Tonight’s lineup, per Pete Abe:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Giambi 1B
Nady DH
Ransom 2B
Moeller C
Gardner CF
Aceves RHP
Alfredo Aceves (1-0, 1.29) has not faced any of the Chicago hitters.
Mark Buehrle (13-11, 3.88) vs. the New York hitters.
Is Pudge hurt? If not he should be embarrassed about how little he’s played since being acquired. And if he is, good.
Abe also says Cervelli and Humberto Humberto have been called up. I’d not mind seeing Cervelli get some ABs <strike>if</strike> once the team is mathematically eliminated.
“Stupid! A guy with at least three, if not four, quality pitches is wasted as a closer.”
Well, I’ve been saying that myself, but that’s not relevant to Posada’s claim, which is that Joba won’t stay healthy as a starter. For which he’s got one data point (the tendinitis) which might well be just correlation not causation.
“Humberto Humberto”
I guess that’s a chilling Nabakov ref.
Some things you probably know about Mark Buehrle:
—He was drafted in the 38th round
—Since becoming a full-time starter in 2001 at the age of 22 he has made 30+ starts and pitched 200+ innings every season.
—His ERA+ for those years: 140, 126, 112, 122, 144, 95, and 131.
—This season he’s at 117 in 192 IP.
—His B-Ref sponsor seems to think he’s from the Bronx but he’s from Missouri.
—Every team in baseball would love to have him.
He’s got to be pretty close to tops in PRAR since 2001 with all those innings of good-excellent throwing.
I hope Nady’s power surge, or at least most of it, is real. That’s a bomb.
seriously. it’s not often that you see a CFer give up so quickly on a ball to CF.
This Cano-Girardi thing really needs to be resolved ASAP.
After reading the thread, I’d love to see Cervilli play sometime soon.
seriously. it’s not often that you see a CFer give up so quickly on a ball to CF.
Junior may be conserving his energy.
until Nady’s HR, i completely forgot that Griffey was on the White Sox
Wow. Well, had to know it was coming at some point. I know almost nothing about Dewayne.
At least he’s K’ing some guys.
7. Ransom
8. Moeller
9. Gardner
What, no Alvaro Espinoza?
Gardner showed some good opposite field power in that inning. Defenses will have to respect the fact that he can bunt the ball past the pitcher now.
I like watching Aceves pitch.
He gives up a lot of near HRs though.
Looks like a decent option to have in AAA next year though. Better than Rasner definitely.
Isn’t that pull-power because it was a bunt to the firstbaseman?
Isn’t that pull-power because it was a bunt to the firstbaseman?
Yup. I thought of it but wasn’t in front of a computer. I didn’t get to the computer quick enough and screwed it up while it was bouncing around in my head
The wit is still appreciated.
10 years ago, if you told Phil Coke he would strike Ken Griffey Jr. out swinging, would he have believed you?
10 years ago, if you told Phil Coke he would strike Ken Griffey Jr. out swinging, would he have believed you?
Hmmm, maybe. He was probably thinking about the big leagues at that point. I think it would have blown him away but I think he would have believed you, kids are pretty gullible.
I’m glad Coke is a pitcher. I’m also glad “line” is a word used to describe a pitchers performance.
I’m liking me some coke, Phil Coke that is. He’ll be 27 next year, same as Guidry when Gator *found* his way into the rotation. Who knows.
Yay Wilson!
I can’t believe Chicago has a really good shot at making the playoffs running Griffey out in CF. On the other hand, Yankees made the playoffs all those years with Bernie so…
(CP, I hit you back e-mail wise, you get it?)
Did Wilson Betemit do something right-handed?
Betemit is becoming a nice little PHer.
Posada’s comments about Joba are annoying.
WTF does he know?
wow, Flaherty is dumb.
“shorten the game” as a reliever?
you know how you really shorten the game? go 7 scoreless.
unreal.
you know how you really shorten the game? go 7 scoreless.
I think that might be the high point of the season. What a game. And they had just gotten Nady. How did it go so wrong from there?
This argument is so stupid, I am so pissed that I am going to hear about it all year.
How did it go so wrong from there?
Joba got hurt.
Question. Has Robby “Soriano’d” his grinning,nonchalant ass out of NY?
Or is he worthy of reclaimation?
I so wanted him to be a worthy pinstriper.
Shit like this really bothers me.
Whoa, the Brewers fired Ned Yost today…
3B coach Dale Sveum will take over as interim manager for the remainder of the season.
One foot out the door thurm, the other on a banana peel for Cano.
Or is he worthy of reclaimation?
Yes. What’s the alternative? Sell ultra-low?
Yes. What’s the alternative? Sell ultra-low?
Even though Cano’s value is low now, something tells me that Cashman would still be able to package him and get pretty good value, if he were so inclined.
Even though Cano’s value is low now, something tells me that Cashman would still be able to package him and get pretty good value, if he were so inclined.
You package me with a gold bar and you can get good value, too. But smart ass comments aside, Cashman (or whoever is running the team in the future) might be able to spin straw into gold as it pertains to Cano. But why try to spin straw into gold, when you used to have gold?
How ridiculously deep was Cano on that shift for Thome?
But smart ass comments aside, Cashman (or whoever is running the team in the future) might be able to spin straw into gold as it pertains to Cano.
I’m not sure what you mean - I wasn’t trying to be a smart ass. I guess I’m just expressing the difference between, say, Ian Kennedy, and Cano. Cano had a crappy year but has already shown that he has the ability to the best all around 2B in the AL. If someone calls looking for Cano, the conversation starts with that description of Cano.
Sorry if that was unclear, my reference to the smart ass comments was about packaging me with a gold bar and getting good value.
I see what you mean, but if I’m a team looking to acquire Cano, I’m not paying for the best 2B in the AL, because maybe he’ll never be that again. Now, maybe he will be, but that’s not a chance I want to take and give up serious stuff.
Is anyone else ready to start talking about offseason plans? That so much more fun than hoping they end up in 3rd place instead of 4th.
Been talking about those off-season plans since spring training. 
How did it go so wrong from there?
Joba got hurt.
Right. And clearly, had he been in the bullpne, he would have been healthy for the entire season. It’s so obvious.
Is anyone else ready to start talking about offseason plans?
We’ve been talking about offseason plans since April. You’ve been here for it. What am I missing?
SG is super awesome. This is about the only site that is worth visiting these days for Yankee related stuff.
Actually, that is true regardless of the time of the year. Perhaps in the off-season, I will sometimes take a peek at Abraham’s site, and regret doing it, and wait for the season to start.
You know who I blame? I blame Larry.
I pose one, maybe two simple questions and I step away for half an hour and what do I get?
Wiseass comments and intelligent answers.
Where the hell is A Phils blog?
You lads are the best.
We’ve been talking about offseason plans since April. You’ve been here for it. What am I missing?
It’s about 80% current season talking and 20% off season. I’m ready to go 100% off season.
Remember in 1998 when Dale Sveum was supposed to platoon with Scott Brosius? You don’t? Well, it’s true. The year before coming to the Yanks, Brosius had hit about .200. Cashman—or maybe Bob Watson—or maybe the Steinbrenner crackhead committee—traded Kenny Rogers for Bro, but the team also signed Sveum as a platoon partner/insurance in case Brosius continued to be below replacement level.. But in spring training Sveum looked so completely done that they released him 20 minutes later.
I think he then played somewhere else, got released again, and missed the Yankees so much (they were in the midst of winning 125 games) that he came back to coach for no pay.
And that’s the Brewers’ new manager.
yeah, Sveum volunteered to be the bullpen catcher if i recall.
But in spring training Sveum looked so completely done that they released him 20 minutes later.
Actually, Sveum played a fair number of games with the Yankees, and wasn’t done as a player until June-ish. Then he volunteered to be the bullpen catcher.
Incredibly, he played the next season, although briefly and terribly.
This is the West, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.
Incredibly, he played the next season, although briefly and terribly.
And SLG’d higher than Jeter is doing in 2008. Zing!
And don’t Red Sox fans consider Sveum to be the worst 3rd base coach this side of Bobby Meachem?
And don’t Red Sox fans consider Sveum to be the worst 3rd base coach this side of Bobby Meachem?
Speaking of Meachem…no one has been complaining about him for a while now. Is that because he hasn’t made as many mistakes - i.e. he’s “learned” - or because nobody really cares any more? I think this is important; though we want our coaches to always be perfect, I think it is just as important that when they make mistakes, they learn from them and get better.
Speaking of Meachem…no one has been complaining about him for a while now. Is that because he hasn’t made as many mistakes - i.e. he’s “learned” - or because nobody really cares any more?
He went from overly aggressive to overly conservative. At least for myself, I noticed bad sends more than bad holds, and I think that’s true for most people. I don’t think he’s suddenly become a good third base coach, he’s just become a risk-averse one.
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