Like one prospect would cut it.

I wouldn’t give up more than Melky or Jackson, Kennedy and a type B propsect. I think that should be enogh

IMHO, Melky, Kennedy, and Marquez would be a good deal for the Yankees.  If Minny needs more position players…the Yankees are light on quality at the upper-end of the farm, and what little quality they have (Gardner) is a bit redundant if you trade Melky.  I.e. a + defender with questionable offense.  I’d certainly be willing to add Shelly Duncan to the mix.  He definitely has some value to an organization like the Twins right now (cheap).  Not sure what else there is I would be OK with the Yankees trading.

As mentioned by some on a previous thread, a lot of it will come down to how important the Twins feel it is to move him before the season starts.  If they feel it is crucial, they may take a lesser package if it looks like the only team Santana will go to (since he has to waive the NTC and likely sign an extension) is the Yankees.

SG, would you mind running some projections for Santana as a Yankee? I was checking out his numbers at THT and from what my feeble brain can summize, it seems he benefits a fair amount from having a strong defensive team behind him and the turf hasn’t affected him as much as he’s not really a GB pitcher. His FIP is consistently higher than his actual ERA. And I guess any projections would have a Yankee OF minus Melky Cabrera, who’d probably go in any deal, right?

Kind of depends on who you have to trade additionally, but I would be willing to trade any one of the above. It’s Johan F’ing Santana, the best pitcher in all of baseball, who is 28 years old as of now. No individual rookie can possibly have that upside, let alone a reasonable expectation.

Sure George.

Here’s how I have Santana projected as a Twin:

3.19 ERA.  220 IP, 168 H, 28 HR, 56 BB, 230K

As a Yankee:

3.25 ERA, 220 IP, 173 H, 28 HR, 56 BB, 230 K

CAIRO just sees him giving up five more singles with the Yankee defense behind him.  The fact that he’s a flyball pitcher is not necessarily a bad thing since the Yankees biggest defensive weakness is at SS, although that depends on if Melky goes in the trade or not.  Damon in CF is probably still a passable flychaser, but then Matsui goes back to LF full-time which is painful.

As you note, Santana consistently outpitches his FIP.  To calculate runs allowed I used a percentage of projected earned runs based on a weighted average, and then linear weight runs based on the projected offensive events and lastly a percentage of FIP converted to runs.  So if he has a persistent approach that allows him to outpitch his FIP it’s not going to be as obvious in my projections, although he does get some credit for it.  I think his projection seems fair though.

Thanks, SG. Those are some awfully attractive numbers.

I agree that Damon is still a passable CF. If he can come into spring in-shape, I think he can still run down fly balls effectively. The arm is the arm, but that was known when Cashman signed him.

Joba, Hughes, Cano - untouchable.

Jackson - maybe.

Everyone else is tradeable in the right amounts. I’d probably go as high as Melky/Kennedy, or some equivalent value.

Don’t forget that Abreu is not necessarily a Yankee in 09. It makes the outfield situation a bit more complicated, as Abreu is really counted for his production at the plate.

shouldn’t we have the ability to select more than one player?

anyway, no hughes/joba/cano.

everyone else is on the table.

SG, if you have time, i would LOVE to see a 6 year projection for Santana (a la the one you did for A-Rod) and say, Cano.  obviously Hughes and Joba would be great, but what kind of confidence interval could we even put around those?  doubt it would be worth the time. 

Santana is going to require a 6 year committment of over $200M with the luxury tax plus 3 good prospects.

i’d be interested to see what he projects to look like at age 32-34.

So, let’s say the Yankees trade Kennedy, Melky, Horne and Tabata for Santana. And let’s also say that Pettite comes back.

P Santana
P Pettite
P Wang
P Chamberlain
P Hughes
P Mussina

That would be frickin’ sweet.

It’s too bad to consider needing to give up Melky, but it’s probably worth it.
Though the likelihood of Damon playing cf for a healthy full season is still doubtful, it would open up dh moreso to Giambi or Duncan depending on who’s the hottest.  I wouldn’t consider trading Jackson as long as the scouts are certain he will make it in the big leagues and soon. (He hasn’t even tasted AA pitching as yet) I wouldn’t surrender both of these guys that’s for sure.  I agree that Kennedy is the more preferrable of the big 3 to trade if it’s needed. Beyond those two I agree the rest of the package would be of lesser quality. I would be all to willing to take my time on this deal. Really, the contract part of the deal is going to be the hard part anyway and even if a team matches up with the right players to satisfy Minny, Santana can sit back and demand what he wants to approve the trade.  His pay & length demands are so very high it is hard to see too many teams lining up. For that reason alone I don’t see this happening quickly, unless the Yanks bid against themselves. I think Cashman will be saavy on this, at least I hope so.

If the trade is made and we lose Melky, then Damon goes down and Matsui also is hurt, what does the outfield look like?

Gardner in cf?  Is he ready? and then who? Please don’t include K Reese.

Has Rowand been included in any rumors as yet? It’s doubtful the Yanks would also sign him up in an offseason that would include A-rod, Po, Mo and Santana, but I’m just sayin…

joeln, if two starters get hurt, the yankees either don’t have a playoff season (regardless of whether melky is traded) or they get a corner outfielder on the market.

sg, Cano should be higher on the list.  He’s gotta be less touchable than melky.

put me on board with kennedy + melky + minor leaguer.  prefer that ML to not be jackson.

Look at it this way:  The yankees would have to try and build a playoff team w/ 100 million.  Then they get to add the best pitcher and best hitter (or close) for the next 50 million.

Is it realistic to expect to get him without trading Hughes (assuming Chamberlain won’t go)? Don’t know if Kennedy will do it, but maybe I don’t have a good idea of his worth. I doubt the Red Sox would be able to get him without Lester or Buccholz going to Minnesota along with Crisp and a couple lower prospects.

It won’t be easy for either team financially. 6/120 is being mentioned.

If Melky were going to be traded, I think you’d hear more rumors of the Yanks signing Rowand or Jones.  I can’t see the Yanks allowing a Matsui/Damon LF/CF combo.  It’s not good defensively and too injury-prone.

I can’t see the Twins saying Melky and Kennedy plus a minor leaguer is worth Santana.  The Twins can do better - from within the Yanks organization and from other ballclubs.  I fully expect the Twins to use the Mets and Dodgers as leverage.  Both of those teams have prospects and payroll to obtain Santana.  The Twins will demand either Hughes or Joba to highlight the prospects needed for Santana.

And it wouldn’t be a Yatt post if I didn’t say this: I shudder to think that the Yanks would tie up 20% of a 200 million budget in two players.  The media would have a field day, and Hank/Hal would have a stroke, if Santana and A-Rod failed to deliver a WS ring in 2008 and/or 2009.  Just don’t sign Santana for more than four years.

“I doubt the Red Sox would be able to get him without Lester or Buccholz going to Minnesota along with Crisp and a couple lower prospects”

Kennedy and Melky are a similar package than Buckholz and Crisp. Melky is better, chipper and younger than Crisp and Kennedy compares to Buckholz as a solid prospect and is a better trade chip than Lester. So I think we don’t have to give up Hughes or Joba to get him

“It won’t be easy for either team financially. 6/120 is being mentioned.”

Moneywon’t stop the Yankees to get the best pitcher in baseball as it wasn’t a factor to sign the best player in the majors.

Maybe you are a little bit jealous about the rumor.

The more time goes by, the more this has bad news written all over it. Removing myself from the emotions I would experice in having the best pitcher in the league pitching for my team, by trading for Santana the Yankees are putting themselves in a tough spot, as they’ll need to give up premium talent and will be at the demand of Santana for his extension. On the flip side, if they don’t trade for him, they definitely keep all of their young players they have now and they get a little more leverage when it’s time to negotiate with him if he does in fact become a free agent. I suppose what Hank and Cashman are wondering what is the chance that some team will swoop in, trade for him and get an extension signed (which, because of Santana’s NTC, you’d have to assume is necessary for him to waive it). So, we can speculate that here, can’t we?

-The Mets seem interested, may have the money, but probably don’t have the trade chips.
-The Red Sox have the money and the trade chips, but to me, those chips or Bucholz, Elsbury and Pedroia, and even those don’t really stack up to Hughes, Chamberlain, and Cano.
- The Dodgers have the trade bait and the money.

I don’t really see any other team getting involved, unless a team like the Royals wants to make a big splash (they seem to be trending upward in salary, no?)

I just don’t think it’s a no-brainer that someone will move in an trade for Santana, and so the Yankees have to make sure they are that someone or else they’ll miss out on him.

The other thing I was thinking is, is it possible that Cashman is interested in acquiring Santana and Nathan? That changes the landscape obviously. The thought comes from the last sentence from Hank via Pete Abe:

<blockquote>
The Yankees are talking to the Twins about Johan Santana. Team spokesman and senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner confirmed it tonight.

“I don’t want to get into that at this point, as far as what they want, what we’re willing to give and all that,” he told the AP. “It’s preliminary right now.”

So the Twins will consider making a trade?

“Oh, yeah,” Hank said.

Steinbrenner also said that Brian Cashman (remember him?) is trying to improve the bullpen.
</blockquote

Oops

If the Twins want to trade Sanatana before the season I think the Yanks really have the advantage over the Red Sox as they have spent lots of money lately and we have better trade bait. I just don’t want to give up more than Melky + Kennedy + Level B prospect. If other team makes a better offer and also wants to spend big bucks on Santana let that team have him.

Buccholz > Kennedy, though if you’re inclined to take stock in minor league statistics, Kennedy might have had the better year.

Kennedy is roughly equal to Lester. I like Kennedy’s mix of pitches and control more, but Lester has a bigger fastball and has that left-handedness going for him, so BA and other pubs are a sucker for him.

If the deciding factor is the CF going over in the deal, I think Melky would be better based on youth, projectability and cost. I’m just getting a bad feeling that the Yankees won’t walk away if Hughes is the deal breaker, and they won’t utilize their leverage in a rush to get a deal done. Hank has way too much of his father in him for that to happen.

Maybe you are a little bit jealous about the rumor.

Nope. Don’t get jealous about rumors. It’s just interesting, that’s all. I’m not sure the Yanks-trade-for-Santana is any more substantial than the RS-trade-for-Santana idea at this point anyway.

I agree that Melky is a better chip than Coco, although a team that gets Crisp may be able to hope he’ll hit .300 again as he did in his last two years in Cleveland.

I don’t think Kennedy stacks up well against Lester (who hasn’t been spectacular, but is better seasoned and may be attractive to the Twins as a LHP)or Buchholz, but again, maybe I don’t know his value. We’re at the point at which prospects for both teams have a strong potential for being overhyped due to media saturation. I’m not strong on the numbers stuff that would give a hint at the reality of these guys’ worth. Which is why I enjoy this blog.

I shudder to think that the Yanks would tie up 20% of a 200 million budget in two players.

Why do you keep saying this?  The Yankees spent $41M on Jeter and Giambi in 2007.  Isn’t that pretty close to 20% of the $208M or so that they shelled out last season?

Don’t know if Kennedy will do it, but maybe I don’t have a good idea of his worth. I doubt the Red Sox would be able to get him without Lester or Buccholz going to Minnesota along with Crisp and a couple lower prospects.

Do Red Sox fans really think that Lester has upside comparable to Buchholz?  Cabrera + Kennedy > Crisp + Lester.

Why do you keep saying this?  The Yankees spent $41M on Jeter and Giambi in 2007.  Isn’t that pretty close to 20% of the $208M or so that they shelled out last season?

You just answered your own question.  Giambi is an albatross: Yanks don’t want him and neither does anyone else, so the Yanks are paying $20 million for a bench/part-time player.

Jeter is a defensive liability at SS.  But they couldn’t move him because of the other big name players and their contracts - not to mention the PR fiasco such a move would cause.

If Giambi had been making less, he could probably be moved.  Jeter’s a little more problematic because of his status as Captain and his vaunted (and ridiculous) “True Yankee” title.  However, Jeter’s poor defense would be a little more palatable if he weren’t making so much money.

So no, I don’t think it’s good to lock up that much money over that much time for any players - even if you can throw around 200 million/year like the Yankees can.  It’s fiscally irresponsible and leads to hamstrung ballclubs with little flexibility.

I know many will disagree, but I personally would be willing to part with Hughes+Melky+Tabata+another prospect.  I think if push comes to shove, the Yankees do that.

Yanks don’t want him and neither does anyone else, so the Yanks are paying $20 million for a bench/part-time player.

Look at Giambi’s numbers. They’re paying $21M in 08 to be a part time player (if they choose that as his role) but the guy was a monster in most of his time in NY.  Don’t cherry pick.

Hank has way too much of his father in him for that to happen.

I think the difference is, Hank may be more willing to defer to Cashman about these things.  George, it was obvious that a lot of the time the only thing the GM did was write the details of the contract.  E.g. the Sheffield contract.  I think - and this is just a feeling at this point - that Hank may say, “I want Santana”, but if Cashman tells him it costs too much, he’ll listen.  We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

The good news is I don’t think the Yankees are in any hurry on this.  They’re expecting to get a decision from Pettitte next month, and again if he comes back that lowers their need for this trade.  I don’t think they had any plans to pursue a starter in FA this year, so it’s not like they need to get a Santana trade done early.  I think (hope) they’d be willing to wait this out until ST if needs be, to get a good deal done.  Time will tell.

You just answered your own question.  Giambi is an albatross: Yanks don’t want him and neither does anyone else, so the Yanks are paying $20 million for a bench/part-time player.

This is totally irrelevant to your chicken little routine.  The point is that the Yankees have already done exactly what you “shudder to think” they would do, yet you act like a) they should be expected to change their ways, and/or b) doing it again will cause the end of civilization as we know it.  No one is advocating bad contracts, but the Yankees do have a proven ability to absorb a few of them and remain fairly successful on the field.

Kennedy compares to Buckholz as a solid prospect and is a better trade chip than Lester.

laughing…

Maybe you are a little bit jealous about the rumor.

Dakranker, you kill me! News flash: Yankee envy is at its lowest ebb in Boston since 1918. It’s a real rivalry now, as in level playing field.

The choice for the Yankees is whether they think there’s a chance the Angels can swing a deal. Otherwise, they’re bidding against themselves. Do you really want to lose either Joba or Hughes (be realistic, no deal will happen with Kennedy and Melky) for one year less of Santana? I think he’s almost certainly playing his next contract for the Yanks. He’s perfect for Yankee Stadium and they’re the only salary match. I’d sit tight.

Maybe Bedard or Kazmir might bring more of a bang on a net trade basis? It seems to me that the Twins are asking for the moon considering Santana will be a free agent after the ‘08 season. He will surely veto any trade that doesn’t at least equal the deal he will be able to get next year, so there is a chance he stays put.

It seems to me there are teams that can afford to pay him, and there are teams that have the right package to trade, but how many have both? Without Hunter the Twins are not likely contenders in ‘08, so at $14 mil. J.S. is an expensive hood ornament. What talent do the Twins most need in order to rebuild, and which teams (that have the budgetary capacity) have that talent to give?

Look at Giambi’s numbers. They’re paying $21M in 08 to be a part time player (if they choose that as his role) but the guy was a monster in most of his time in NY.  Don’t cherry pick.

I’m not cherry picking.  I’m showing that towards the ends of long-term contracts, the team is left with an overpaid player who can’t be moved.  You should be wise about cherry picking Giambi’s stats: I’d like to know how his power numbers in those “monster” years would have been without PEDs.

This is totally irrelevant to your chicken little routine.  The point is that the Yankees have already done exactly what you “shudder to think” they would do, yet you act like a) they should be expected to change their ways, and/or b) doing it again will cause the end of civilization as we know it.  No one is advocating bad contracts, but the Yankees do have a proven ability to absorb a few of them and remain fairly successful on the field.

No it is not irrelevant.  Yanks tied up a lot of money to older players like Giambi and guess what, the titles stopped coming.  In my opinion, it’s not coincidence that the Yanks have fallen since they started throwing out big-money, long-term contracts to players like Giambi.  Or Pavano.

Not advocating bad contracts?  Please.  Most fans were thrilled to have A-Rod back at 10/275 (maybe even more).  Thrilled to have Mo back for 3/45.  Thrilled to have Posada as their catcher for the next what, five years?  I can only imagine what the Yanks will give Santana.

You’re also forgetting that if the Yanks pay Santana/A-Rod 50 million, they’ll have to find a SS (or resign Jeter), a 1B, an OF (at least) and resign guys like Cano and Wang in the next couple of years.  That money adds up pretty quick.

The Twins will not settle for Ian Kennedy, I dont see how they can. They’ll certainly ask for Joba and the Yankees will counter with Hughes and go from there. I hope that they can keep Austin Jackson, but I did post quite a while ago that the Twins would likely ask for [Jackson] in any trade.

Trading Melky means who will play CF in 2008? Nobody can seriously think that Damon will cut it.

Santana has a no trade, and reportedly wants the Yankees.

“(be realistic, no deal will happen with Kennedy and Melky)”

wishful thinking?

“for one year less of Santana? I think he’s almost certainly playing his next contract for the Yanks. He’s perfect for Yankee Stadium and they’re the only salary match. I’d sit tight”

I think you are missing the point here. The Twins offered a good contract to Johan and he rejected it, so they want to trade him before the season. They will accept a package better than a 1st round pick for him, and if the package is a very good pitching prospect to replace him and a solid CF to replace Hunter they will consider to trade him now.

I rather wait to sign him next season but maybe he won’t be a FA by then. And by the way I will welcome Santana to close the Stadium with a very good chance to win it all.

Maybe Bedard or Kazmir might bring more of a bang on a net trade basis?

Very sensible reaction. You probably could get one of them for some of the good-but-no-Hughes/Joba packages being suggested here. Or not, I dunno. With Santana, you’re asking to meet a value that’s inflated by his Cy hardware. Does he really get you more wins than Kaz or Bedard? How many more, if any? And is that worth the bazillion dollars-max years-prima donna contract the Yankees have labored under so often? Especially compared to what you could have gotten more reasonably?

If I’m Theo and the Yanks do a Santana deal, I’d work on Bedard. [Kazmir might be trickier, Tampa is at least as greedy in trade talks as the Twins are being.]

I think you are missing the point here. The Twins offered a good contract to Johan and he rejected it, so they want to trade him before the season. They will accept a package better than a 1st round pick for him, and if the package is a very good pitching prospect to replace him and a solid CF to replace Hunter they will consider to trade him now.

Yes and no. I accept your statement of what the Twins want, but NO TRADE HAPPENS w/o the extension because of his full NTC. For the Twins to trade him regardless, it would mean a team paying for a one-year rental if they’re not up for the 120m/6yr price tag. That’s why I think it’s Yanks or maybe (5%) Angels or nobody.

I think you are missing the point here. The Twins offered a good contract to Johan and he rejected it, so they want to trade him before the season. They will accept a package better than a 1st round pick for him, and if the package is a very good pitching prospect to replace him and a solid CF to replace Hunter they will consider to trade him now.

Most teams that want to trade for Santana will caveat a certain amount of time to negotiate an extension for Santana before sealing the deal.

If you are the Dodgers, why surrender a couple of prospects for one year of Santana?  You’d want to ensure you kept Santana around by extending his contract.

If Santana wants Yankee-proportion money in his free agent deal, then the Dodgers will have to pay him as much as the Yankees would.

If Dodgers aren’t willing to do that, then I doubt they’d trade for him in the first place.

wishful thinking?

Hey, I’m the one arguing that he’s 95% likely to be a Yankee in the next 13 months, regardless.

In my opinion, it’s not coincidence that the Yanks have fallen since they started throwing out big-money, long-term contracts to players like Giambi.

Gotta call BS on this.  The Yankees handed out lots of big contracts while they were winning WS titles.  And not all of them to home-grown players either.  Your reading of history is exceedingly selective to say the least.

And again, comments along the lines of only signing a player like Santana for three or four years are non-starters.  The Twins have already offered him a five year extension at more than $18M per year.

“It seems to me there are teams that can afford to pay him, and there are teams that have the right package to trade, but how many have both? Without Hunter the Twins are not likely contenders in ‘08, so at $14 mil. J.S. is an expensive hood ornament. What talent do the Twins most need in order to rebuild, and which teams (that have the budgetary capacity) have that talent to give? “

I agree with you. There aren’t too many teams that can get Santana, so the Yanks shouldn’t overpay in terms of prospects to get him.

Does he really get you more wins than Kaz or Bedard?

Or Haren?

SSF - I agree with you and CT Yankee.  I’d kick the tires on Kazmir, but he’s probably too expensive in terms of prospects, although he’d be cheaper than Santana in terms of dollars.

Bedard might be tricky - you’re dealing with Angelos, the worst owner in baseball today.  Who knows what he’d authorize.  Personally, I think the Yanks or Sox could get Bedard much cheaper than Santana - in terms of prospects and money.

I’d love to see the Mets fork over the prospects and money to the Twins for Santana and his bank-busting contract and then watch Cashman nab Bedard or Kazmir.

Sure, many Yankee fans would be pissed because Bedard and Kazmir don’t carry the cache of Santana, but the long-term results would be better.

Gotta call BS on this.  The Yankees handed out lots of big contracts while they were winning WS titles.  And not all of them to home-grown players either.  Your reading of history is exceedingly selective to say the least.

To whom?  I could care less whether the contracts went to home-grown players or not, just as long as they were not long-term ones thrown at players on the wrong side of 30.  Guys like Giambi, Mussina, Pavano, Unit, etc. all came along when the Yanks were trying to chase the 1990s-2000 Dynasty.  All those players, except maybe Mussina, were past their prime. 

And again, comments along the lines of only signing a player like Santana for three or four years are non-starters.  The Twins have already offered him a five year extension at more than $18M per year.

Then that should be a telling sign that Santana won’t be worth the money he wants.

I would not be in any way pissed about the Yankees getting Bedard, unless they traded an outrageous package for him.  But I seriously doubt that Baltimore would trade Bedard to either the Yankees or the Red Sox.  The tires they should be kicking are Haren’s.

Then that should be a telling sign that Santana won’t be worth the money he wants.

There’s a very reasonable argument to be made that he won’t be.  There is no reasonable argument to be made that he can be had for less.  You can tell the difference, can’t you?

I would not be in any way pissed about the Yankees getting Bedard, unless they traded an outrageous package for him.  But I seriously doubt that Baltimore would trade Bedard to either the Yankees or the Red Sox.  The tires they should be kicking are Haren’s.

I think Beane and Co. would extract more for Haren then the brainchildren in Baltimore would for Bedard.

The Twins will not settle for Ian Kennedy, I dont see how they can. They’ll certainly ask for Joba and the Yankees will counter with Hughes and go from there. I hope that they can keep Austin Jackson, but I did post quite a while ago that the Twins would likely ask for [Jackson] in any trade.

Hughes or Joba are “almost” untouchable. I could see a trade with either Melky or Jackson, Kennedy, and one solid prospect like Horne or Tabata. Cashman will not want to open up many holes to fill one. If the Red Sox make a serious bid it becomes an existential problem, then all bets are off.

Trading Melky means who will play CF in 2008? Nobody can seriously think that Damon will cut it.

Santana + Damon in CF will hurt a bit in the regular season but would improve their chance of winning the WS. Besides, they could go after another center fielder as a bridge until Austin Jackson is ready.

oh man, can you imagine an ALDS with Johan pitching games 1 and 5 at the stadium?  It’s almost like getting a bye into the alcs.

Or Haren… Actually, that’s probably the best idea.

Sure, many Yankee fans would be pissed because Bedard and Kazmir don’t carry the cache of Santana, but the long-term results would be better.

Right… but who wants to pay for cache?

I’d personally love to see the Mets fork over huge prospects and dollars for Kazmir. That’d be the story that keeps on giving.

There’s a very reasonable argument to be made that he won’t be.  There is no reasonable argument to be made that he can be had for less.  You can tell the difference, can’t you?

Yes, one can make an argument that he can be had for less.  Why?  One simple reason: Yanks set the market for free agents, pure and simple.  They have the most money and spend the most moeny.  Free agents either sign with the Yanks or use the money the Yanks spend as a benchmark.

Santana wants 6/120.  Yanks can afford it.  But if they don’t give him what he wants, he will settle for less.  Will he spurn the Yanks for not giving into his demands?  Maybe.  Or maybe he will take what the Yanks give him, knowing that his shot of winning a World Series is best with the Yanks.  He also thinks that if he pitches well, he could probably extract another contract from the Yanks (see: Mo).

I don’t understand why people think Player A simply won’t sign for less than what his agent demands.  They are in contract negotiations and the players don’t hold all the cards.  Much of what they state in the media is posturing.  And when push comes to shove, they will sign for the most money, even if the biggest contract isn’t what they want.

To whom?

They gave David Cone a $36M contract when he was 34 years old and $36M was a really big deal.  He helped them win three WS.  They paid Roger Clemens $10M per year for his age 38-40 seasons.  They were a couple of outs away from winning three world championships in those three years.

“don’t really see any other team getting involved, unless a team like the Royals wants to make a big splash (they seem to be trending upward in salary, no?) “

This reference to the Royals must be a joke. Santana wouldn’t flee one small market for another. He wants the money but he also wants the limelight.

I am uncomfortable to referencing Santana as the best pitcher (currently in MLB). I would have been more comfortable a year ago.

“joeln, if two starters get hurt, the yankees either don’t have a playoff season (regardless of whether melky is traded) or they get a corner outfielder on the market. “

Probably right, but didn’t that happen in 06 with Matsui and Sheffield both getting hurt? Still eeked out a title as I recall.

The problems with acquiring Kaz or Bedard are obvious. The Orioles and Rays are in the same division and both owners despise the Yankees. Mideast peace talks have a better chance than acquiring either pitcher IMHO.

I wonder….if Santana has an exclusive Yankee thing going- similar to Randy Johnson at one time- and notices that the Yanks do indeed want him, but the Twins are being stubborn for players, he could

(1) advise the Twins that he will veto any other deal unless they lower their demand for players
(2) resolve to play out the season and go FA

I don’t understand why people think Player A simply won’t sign for less than what his agent demands.

I think players will and do sign for less than what their agents demand.  I don’t think this player will sign for less than what he’s already been offered.  Again, you can see the difference, can’t you?

Mideast peace talks have a better chance than acquiring either pitcher IMHO.

I wonder what Yatt would pay for peace in the mideast?  Is it worth 10/$305M?

I personally would be willing to part with Hughes+Melky+Tabata+another prospect.

Sweet Jesus no.

Sweet Jesus no.

Then don’t expect to get Santana unless he holds out for the Yankees.  The Twins aren’t stupid.

I think players will and do sign for less than what their agents demand.  I don’t think this player will sign for less than what he’s already been offered.  Again, you can see the difference, can’t you?

Yes, I can see the difference.  I just think that Santana can be had for less than his agent demands.

They gave David Cone a $36M contract when he was 34 years old and $36M was a really big deal.  He helped them win three WS.

One bad contract (bad in my view) is not as bad as multiple ones, of course.  Yanks got lucky with Cone.  Yanks haven’t gotten lucky with many of the ones they’ve handed out lately.  And that’s the problem: odds are that an older player will breakdown by the end of the contract.  The more of them you have, the more likely that there will be problems.  Let’s face it, this team is old.  It’s getting younger, but they still have more than their fair share of fossils.

Again, you can see a problem looming in the not-so-distant future if the Yanks have 50 million tied up in Santana/A-Rod, plus 15 million for Mo, 13 for Posada?  That’s 78 million for four players.  You have to replace Jeter, or resign him.  You need one, maybe two OFs.  You need a 1B.  Cano and Wang will need to be signed.  You need a BP and whatever holes in your rotation filled.

Going back to my Cano trial balloon…

a team like the Yankees should never have to say—or choose to say—“we will accept less at this position.”  So I don’t want to trade Cano.

No prob fgas…we’ll just send Karstens and Clippard to Philly for Chase Utley.  Seriously, by your logic the Yanks shouldn’t settle for 2 and a half unproven rookies in the starting rotation either.  You have to give to get.  And to clarify, I’m not “for” trading Robbie—I’d just sooner trade him than Joba or Hughes.

I hope Cashman’s playing it cool and hard-to-get here.  Especially if Santana has in essence said he only really wants the Yankees.  I don’t see anyone else falling over themselves and throwing their best prospects at Minnesota.  Draw the line at Hughes.  Offer some threesome combo of Melky, Kennedy, Horne, Tabata, Marquez (no Austin Jackson).  See what happens next.

Nathan+Santana strikes me as a little nutty and far-fetched.  Just imagine the package that would require.  Makes my head hurt.

If and when Santana goes, Billy Beane being a clever chap is going to drive a very hard bargain on Haren by pointing out that he (Haren) probably had a better ‘07 than Johan AND is signed cheap for the next 3 years.

Another important point that’s kind of getting lost here is that the Twins need hitters a lot more than they need more pitchers.  They have quite a stable of pitching prospects already.  It seems to me that they’ll be wanting an impact bat for Johan a lot more than a hotshot young pitcher.

I would trade Cano for Santana straight up.  The Twins wouldn’t, but they should.  Given Mauer’s durability issues and Morneau’s over-ratedness, he’d be their best position player.  They’d be a little too left-handed, but a team that posted an OPS+ of 93 can’t be all that picky.

Another important point that’s kind of getting lost here is that the Twins need hitters a lot more than they need more pitchers.  They have quite a stable of pitching prospects already.  It seems to me that they’ll be wanting an impact bat for Johan a lot more than a hotshot young pitcher.

Good point.  Other than Jackson and Cano, Yanks don’t have too many offensive position players to offer.

I could see the Twins packaging whatever pitching prospects they get and trading them for some bats.

I really like Ian Kennedy, but I don’t think he has as much trade value as Jon Lester (nor do I think he projects to be better than Lester), and he definitely does not have as much trade value as Clay Bucholz. Bucholz probably has more trade value than Hughes, even! Just not Joba.

No one has more trade value than Joba.

Bucholtz’s trade value includes all profits from fencing.  This explains why he’s worth more than Kennedy.

On a personal level, I would rather try it with a bunch a kids than another team’s ace.

On what’s good for a team level, Santana is a great pitcher and is worth a bunch of good minor leaguers… but I don’t think we’re going to make the best offer, I don’t think its good for the team to have so much money in so few players, and MLB would do something about the outrageous level of spending at that poin

Bucholtz’s trade value includes all profits from fencing.  This explains why he’s worth more than Kennedy.

There goes your karma for the day Yatt. Good luck finding on-street parking later.

MLB would do something about the outrageous level of spending at that poin

Something more than taxing every dollar above $158M at 40%?  I don’t think so.

And if Buchholz really is the greatest living American hero, I would think that people could learn to spell his name.

I’m in the camp that would not trade Joba, Hughes, or Cano for Santana at this point.  Instead, I would try to do Kennedy, Melky, and another prospect.  If pressed, I would probably replace Melky with Austin Jackson, but I would not include BOTH Melky and Jackson.  If pressed, I might make Tabata the third prospect, but again, I’d rather it be one or maybe even two of the other pitching prospects.

As for Yankee and Sox prospects, can we all agree that Bucholz, Joba, and Hughes are all in the same class as potential #1 Ace pitchers in the very near future?  I wouldn’t trade any of these three guys.  And Lester and Kennedy are clearly a notch below.  As for the outfielders, I’d put Ellsbury in a class by himself right now, followed by Melky, Jackson, and Tabata.

As for Haren, Kazmir, and Bedard… for the Yankees, while I’d love to have Haren, I’d put the greater premium on Kazmir or Bedard as left-handers.  The Yankees have so many righty arms right now.  And are Bedard and Kazmir really available?  I’d certainly prefer either of them to Santana (due to their age) if they were, but what’s the basis for this speculation?

And if Buchholz really is the greatest living American hero, I would think that people could learn to spell his name.

Oh, he is. FYI, as much as Sonsofsamhorn is almost unreadable, there’s a funny element where if you misspell Buchholz in a comment, it appears in publication as “I am an idiot”.

And are Bedard and Kazmir really available?

maybe, but not to the yankees.

For those trying to trade away Cano, who are we going to replace him with?
Andy Phillips?

I wish the Twins would consider Wang.  As much as I like the guy, giving him up (plus others) for Santana would be ideal.  But the Twins just don’t want to have to pay him when the time comes.

Anyone who wants to move Cano is a fool.  He’s the best 2B in the AL and has yet to turn 25.  And for those who are focused only on the post-season, well, Cano has an excellent track record there as well.

Jon Heyman is reporting on Mike and the Mad Dog that the Twins want one of Joba, Hughes, or Kennedy, plus Melky, plus a prospect.  Then he goes on to say if the Twins would take Hughes, Melky, and a prospect, he’d do that in a second.  Wait.  The Twins want Joba, Hughes, OR Kennedy, and out of those three, you’re going to send them Hughes??  Tough to buy what this guy is saying when he doesn’t seem to understand the difference between Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy.

He’s also reporting the Red Sox are in on the sweepstakes. I’m not taking any of it seriously. Heyman seems to want to have rumors to wave around all the time. This is Lowell-playing-first.

I agree with SSF about taking Heyman seriously.  I would also reiterate my earlier comment about the Twins desperately needing hitters, not pitchers.  But if you want to play along with Heyman, maybe he’s trying to suggest that he’d rather do Hughes, Melky and a B prospect than Kennedy, Melky, and an A prospect.  Depending on who the third player was in each scenario, I could possibly see an argument for giving up Hughes instead of Kennedy.  But I don’t see any trade that involves Hughes or Chamberlain as a “do it in a second” trade.

Kennedy+Melky+Tabata for Johan + negotiating window= early Christmas present for me.  I love Melky and Kennedy/Tabata may turn into fine players but Johan is perhaps the best pitcher of his era.  The Yankees often trade their “coveted” prospects and hold on to less known guys with the latter turning into stars while the “prospects” flop.  See Ruben Rivera, Clausen, etc. Perhaps Cash is higher on Horne than Kennedy, or higher on both of them than Hughes.  Maybe Tabata is replaceable on the international mkt.  Maybe they are eying a June arrival for Action Jackson.  Just think about this: Johan, Joba, Wang, Pettitte, Hughes.  WOW!

As long as Cashman takes his time and doesn’t feel forced to make a deal, the price for Santana is only going to drop.

PagsRags, the only reason the Yanks held onto “less known guys” like Wang and Cano is because no one wanted them.  Arizona could have nabbed Cano in the RJ deal but didn’t believe he was immediately major league ready. 

As for Kennedy, I’ve heard all sorts of guff about his mediocre stuff, but the guy was fantastic at every level of the minors, with high strikeout rates at each stop.  Also, this isn’t a guy who throws 89-90 like Clippard and hence needs to pitch backwards.  I saw Kennedy’s debut and he was consistently at 91-92, which is good enough given his other pitches.  Kennedy also has very smooth mechanics unlike Clippard.  Moreover, Kennedy has had the same type of success as Horne in the minors while being two years younger.  We don’t know what sort of pitcher he’ll turn into, but all indications are that he’ll be very good.

all indications are that he’ll be very good.

Agreed.  Your arguments in defense of Kennedy actually make the case that the Yankees need not include Joba or Hughes in a deal for Santana.  Kennedy is an excellent prospect in his own right.

Furthermore, I don’t think the Red Sox can pressure the Yankees to include a better prospect than Kennedy unless they include Ellsbury and/or Buchholz, which I don’t think they should or will do.  So the Yankees are pretty well-positioned to make a fair deal.

Johan, Joba, Wang, Pettitte, Hughes.  WOW!

Wow indeed.  I think it’s important no to lose sight of how good this rotation would be.

B-man—not to pile on, but regarding “give to get”:  I totally agree.  I just think the Yankess should “give” at positions where they have other options (like young pitching and center field) and not second base.

SSF: laughing…

Care to substantiate this?

Yatt: Yanks haven’t gotten lucky with many of the ones they’ve handed out lately.

This is the problem I have with you referring to Giambi’s contract this way.  Giambi was a dud in terms of his salary in 07, but he was a monster in 4 of the 6 seasons he’s been with the Yankees. In 08, he may play a bigger role, and it certianyl would not surprise me to see him put up some crazy OPS+ like 160 or something. So IMO, the jury is still out, and if he does something like that, I’d say his contract was a good one, albeit expensive.

By the way, I wonder why the Twins aren’t focusing on Wilson Betemit.  They have an absolutely awful 3B in Nick Punto, whose OPS+ in 2007 was 52 (yes 52) over 150 games.  Adding Betemit would be an enormous upgrade.  If the Twins really do need position players rather than pitchers, perhaps they should ask for Melky, Betemit, Horne and maybe Alberto Gonzalez or Brett Gardner.  In the end, I’m sure Cashman would rather give up Betemit than IPK, especially as he may very well be able to plug in Juan Miranda or Eric Duncan into the lefty hitting 1B platoon spot sometime next season.

Hear RedSox are making an offer for Santana: Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz w/an ankle monitor in case he tries to nab 29 Laptops from Minnesota Twins headquarters.  A heist like that could bankrupt a small mkt team like the Twinkies.

One thing to remember about Kennedy - I think we are all taken aback by Heyman’s article - he’s the only one of Hughes, Joba and Kennedy who is ready to go 200 IP in 2008.  He wouldn’t replace Santana’s dominance, but he’d at least be able to replace his IP.  Perhaps they’re counting on Liriano to be Santana’s replacement.

Wow, did anyone just get that internet vibe that a deal will soon be upon us? Steve Lombardi has some stuff, plus this Heyman story, the comments from Hank.

Bold prediction:
Kennedy, 1 of Horne/Marquez, Melky, Eric Duncan to Minnesota
Santana to Yankees

Pettite returns, and the opening day pitching rotation is Santana, Pettite, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, at which point I’ll quit my job and spend my life savings following the Yankees around the country.

Care to substantiate this?

Well, it’s not like I recorded it or anything. But if you want, just say “Kennedy is as promising as Buchholz” and I’ll muster another chuckle or two. I don’t dislike Kennedy, and I won’t defend equating him with Lester, but come on.

As for the laptops nonsense from PagsRags… wait, I think that answers it. But to be clear, I really think Santana will go to the Yankees. I only question whether it’ll be worth it, because of the cheaper options for guys who are maybe or nearly as good.

Given the unwillingness of teams to trade prospects these days, I really don’t think the haul for guys like Santana and Miguel Cabrera is going to be as bountiful as some would think.  This is especially true for the Twins given how much their ace will cost his new team.  Bearing in mind that the Yanks don’t NEED to make this deal, Cashman should offer Melky, Horne and Betemit.  The Red Sox, in the end, aren’t going to make a big push because they don’t want to take on another huge salary obligation.  And if Santana goes to the Mets or Dodgers, that hardly hurts the Yanks.

As long as Cashman takes his time and doesn’t feel forced to make a deal, the price for Santana is only going to drop.

Yep, this is the key. Internet momentum is one thing - as j points out there’s a lot of it - but Cashman is running a front office. I’m sure he doesn’t feel an immediate need to pull the trigger on a deal he’s extremely uneasy with. And explore what else is out there if it gives him more leverage…ask about Haren, Garza, Kazmir, whoever.

but come on

So I guess you don’t care to substantiate what causes you to say Kennedy < Buchholz.

Kennedy’s MiLB line: 1.87 ERA, 7.11 K/9, 0.97 WHIP
Buchholz’s MiLB line: 2.46 ERA, 11.23 K/9, 1.00 WHIP

Both have had success at the MLB level.  Buchholz’s number in MiLB are with about 100 more IP, so he’s probably got the edge, but I submit that’s it’s not intuitively obvious and definitely not laughable to compare them. Hell, by it’s definitions, their MiLB lines are ‘comparable.’

Kennedy also never stole a bunch of laptops. Zing!

I must have missed the page 6 . Did Buchholz run with the former UConn guard or have his own Posse?

Buchholz has better stuff than Kennedy.  You can play with the numbers all you want, j, but that’s the reality.  Kennedy has better minor league numbers than Joba.  That doesn’t mean he’s comparable.  IPK is still a fine prospect with a bright future, but this is supposedly a website where science at least has a chance when faced with emotion.  Let this drop.

I don’t think Betemit would appeal to the Twins because as a low BA/solid OBP player whose defense may be only average and has no speed to speak of he doesn’t meet the qualifications they tend to value in their infield.  I do think, however, they might be interested (as someone here has mentioned) in Shelley Duncan as a part-time DH/1b backup.  Funny, because the description of Betemit above fits Duncan perfectly.  For my case, I’m looking forward to both, and Melky, and Kennedy especially, playing roles on the 2008 Yankees-but I won’t miss any of them if Santana takes their place (and plays 4 positions). 

But, as I said yesterday, Santana’s contract demands are what will get in the way of a deal, if anything.  He sees Barry Zito and raises you 3 million per. 

I hope Terry Ryan is enjoying his retirement because at least that means someone in Minnesota is happy about the Twins.

Wow, did anyone just get that internet vibe that a deal will soon be upon us?

No.  If Santana is traded before the winter meetings, it will almost certainly mean that somebody gave up way too much.

he doesn’t meet the qualifications they tend to value in their infield

I doubt they’d be interested in Betemit, too, but the last time the Twins had a middle infielder with an OPS+ over 100 was 2001.  So maybe they ought to reconsider the qualifications they value.

I don’t know, Frog.  When your team has a 3B with a 52 OPS+, the chance for a serious upgrade has to be appealing.  Punto was worse than a replacement level player last season.  He’s the equivalent of the Yanks having played their AAA 3B, Angel Chavez, for 150 games.  If the Twins are going to give up Santana, they need to make up his value elsewhere.  A good place to start would be by adding a player like Betemit, who is young, cost controlled and will be, at the very least, a league average 3B that gives the team some much needed power.

52!

Criminy.

Hey Twins, I can do that!  And I’ll play just for, like, drinks and tips.

Frog .. Are ya up to lapdances for Mauer? Thats included.

Not the kind of tips I meant, Thurm.