You know, I read that that “other guy” on that “other blog” made a comment along the lines of saying that he wished it was someone else who hit that homer.  I found it pretty low class.  Then I come here, and see that you couldn’t even stand to have Arod’s picture be at the top of the page for 24 hours.  Have you no decency?

I know health is going to be a concern all year, but if we ever got a solid month with the full lineup, I’d be giddy.  Melky batting 9th!

Then I come here, and see that you couldn’t even stand to have Arod’s picture be at the top of the page for 24 hours.  Have you no decency?

A-Rod was going to get bumped by the game chatter for the most important game ever in a few hours anyway.

I know health is going to be a concern all year, but if we ever got a solid month with the full lineup, I’d be giddy

Yeah, add Posada full-time and Nady as a platoon DH, with Teixeira and A-Rod no longer slumping, and this could be the best lineup in baseball.

I’m feeling leery about these ‘rest of the month’ exercises - the system is noisy and I don’t see what one learns comparing against such small samples.

I’m feeling leery about these ‘rest of the month’ exercises - the system is noisy and I don’t see what one learns comparing against such small samples.

One good thing about them is that they will incorporate strength of schedule/opposition and home/road games to give us a little more detail. 

Still, they’re really just a rough gauge of what we should expect to happen if everything goes as projected, which never happens.  We can use the results to set realistic expectations, even if they’re not going to be particularly predictive.

We can also use them to retroactively look back when it’s done to see if the Yankees over or underperformed those realistic expectations.

I look forward to being able to complain about the Yanks only going 8-6 for the rest of the month.

“We can also use them to retroactively look back when it’s done to see if the Yankees over or underperformed those realistic expectations.”

Say they underperform.  Is the conclusion that they had poor luck, or are less relatively talented than expected?

I was thinking that RS/RA for the period might be less noisy, or even linear weighted offense/integrated FIP+reasonable-defense-correction.

Have fun with the game today guys. I won’t be here. I’m graduating.

Say they underperform.  Is the conclusion that they had poor luck, or are less relatively talented than expected?

It would depend on the results, wouldn’t it?  At times they would be unlucky, at other times, they may be lucky.  They (or their opponents) could suffer critical injuries that affect the stretch in question.  They could over or underperform in high leverage situations. 

I was thinking that RS/RA for the period might be less noisy, or even linear weighted offense/integrated FIP+reasonable-defense-correction.

I think over 1000 iterations the noise smooths out somewhat, but I don’t think there’s any way to look at a stretch of 15 or so games in any way without dealing with a lot of noise and sample size issues.  But I did include the RF/RA data above, and the RA data should account for the defensive ability of the players involved, not just the pitchers, since Diamond Mind uses defensive ratings which I’ve built off defensive projections.

Have fun with the game today guys. I won’t be here. I’m graduating.

Congratulations Clay.

Hooray Clay!

All I can say is ...  go back.

Uh, good for you, go get em Clay.

“I won’t be here. I’m graduating.”

What does one have to do with the other?  Oh, you’re going to your graduation.  In retrospect I would have preferred to watch a good ballgame instead of going to mine.  Hope you don’t broil.  And congrats.

“It would depend on the results, wouldn’t it?”

I don’t know how to tell, whatever the (likely) results.

Have fun with the game today guys. I won’t be here. I’m graduating.

Don’t!  The real world sucks!

Just kidding.  Congratulations buddy.

David Wells threw a perfect game the day i graduated.

hope you top that today.

I am terrible at graduations (missed both college and grad school ones), but I hope you enjoy yours, Clay!  Congratulations!