And yeah, the max velocity in the first chart for the curve is almost certainly wrong.  I’d guess a pitch was mis-classified but don’t feel like it hunting it down at the moment.

2009 Joba the Starter vs. 2009 Joba the Reliever?

A = Joba in 2009 as a starter
B = Joba in 2009 as a reliever

?

[2] Beat me to it.

Come on people, the first few guesses are supposed to be wrong.

Yeah, it’s basically Joba the starter (as denoted by regular season so there’s one relief appearance in there) vs. Joba the reliever (as denoted by what he did in the postseason).

Are there splits for 2008 starter vs. reliever?  Fangraphs has his 2008 avg FB at 95, but he spent about 1/3 of his BF as a reliever, and that was after the injury.

It’s a little early for me (yes, 11 AM is too early on a sunday), so I’m having a hard time seeing what should be catching my eye.  The average velocity, obviously.  Anything else?  Being FB/Slider heavy as a reliever?

I like these puzzle posts that ask us to make a story out of numbers.  What seems loudest to me is how relatively ineffective his slider was as a reliever. Could totally be sample size.

What seems loudest to me is that as a starter, while his average fastball velocity is fine, he threw at least one four-seamer at 87 (and presumably others in the same neighbrorhood).  Yikes. 

But I’ll make a POOMA guess that this is merely a mechanical problem.  And it makes sense that the more innings you throw, the more likely you are to lose your mechanics.

Honestly, I don’t think there are necessarily any differences worth seeing between the two sets of data.  I was just messing around with a Pitch FX database I downloaded and this was the first query I ran to make sure it was complete so I figured I’d post them for the hell of it.

Are there splits for 2008 starter vs. reliever?  Fangraphs has his 2008 avg FB at 95, but he spent about 1/3 of his BF as a reliever, and that was after the injury.

Yeah, I should be able to pull those.  Don’t think I can do it today but should be able to do it early this week.

Joba has never thrown a slider at 75. Well he may have, but I don’t remember ever seeing one come in at less than 84ish. Interesting stuff. Anyone have a conclusion? I could be wrong but 41% of fastballs out of the zone seems like a lot.

Joba has never thrown a slider at 75. Well he may have, but I don’t remember ever seeing one come in at less than 84ish.

Yeah, that’s probably a curve mistakenly classified as a slider.

Until SG has time to drill deeper into the 2008 Fx data, here Joba’s 2008 game by game average FB velocity as a starter (prior to the injury) using Brooks Baseball’s Pitch Fx (which I have posted before):

When he returned on 9/2, his longest outing was 1.2 IP.

[13] dropping from an average of about 95, which would be close to if not tops in baseball to 92.5 is pretty huge.

I’d be curious to see similar starter/reliever splits for Phil Hughes.

Also, have any other recent young pitchers seem similar fluctuations in velocity as Joba has experienced, e.g. Verlander, Greinke, King Felix…?  Do we think the velocity decrease is due to the shoulder injury for Joba, as Rich suggests?

I don’t really think his shoulder injury in 2008 was that bad. He was only finished for the year because he is Joba. It was a hot, Texas game in August…shoulder strains happen. If I had to explain the velocity drop I would say it is because he came into spring training 2009 at least 15 pounds lighter. Not positive this is the case, but he is definitely not as big as when he first came up in 2007.

[16] If this is the case, Joba should be working out with Pettitte this off-season instead of his usual off-season routine, drinking in Nebraska.

Verlander lost a lot of velocity at the start of 2008.  Obviously, it came back.

Chamberlain wasn’t finished for the year after the shoulder injury; he was only finished as a starter.

Avg FB, 2008 post injury:

9/2—93.25
9/6—93.83
9/10—93.82
9/13—94.2
9/15—95.41
9/17—94.63
9/21—94.07
9/23—94.04
9/28—92.36

As I have posted before, I heard David Cone say on ESPN 1050 that he thought that it would take until next season before Joba regained full arm strength from the shoulder injury. He also said that he thinks the shoulder injury has caused mechanical issues (e.g., the hitch in his delivery that Eiland has identified). His opinion isn’t dispositive, but he does seem to be pretty knowledgeable about pitching.

Joba threw only 4 curve balls in post-season, which makes sense.  A relief pitcher doesn’t get to his third pitch.  Yet, the curve ball seems to have been his most effective pitch during the regular season, with only 1.8% in play, no out.

Sometimes it’s injury. Sometimes pitchers have bad years velocity wise. Lincecum lost as much velocity from last year to this year as Joba did but no one talks about it/cares because he still pitched well. Even at 92.5, Joba still has a VERY GOOD fastball and can be an excellent pitcher especially considering the quality of his secondary offerings. He just needs to pitch better.

[21]  Amen.

Factor in his defense! Holy Cow!!

[23] That was such a great play.

[21] You’re right that if he pitches the way he did in his first three starts after the AS break, the velocity issue would fade, but when he averages 95 mph, it increases his margin for error, and his secondary stuff doesn’t have to be quite as sharp. In that regard, his slider often lacked the depth it had in 2008.

His slider in 2007 was the sickest pitch I’ve ever seen. I’m still waiting for that one to show up again.

So… what’s up y’all? Have the Yankees signed anyone or traded for anyone yet?

[27] They wanted Hermida for LF but the Boy Genius swooped in and stole another good one.

[21] his fastball is “very good” for what? Getting crushed? His FB was 21 (!) runs below average per 100 pitches (i think that’s what it is…)according to Fangraphs.

The decrease in velocity is one of the must frustrating mysteries that will never be talked about. The MSM is so wrapped up into having him in the pen that his avg velocity decrease will never be mentioned, unless it’s because of the flawed argument that he somehow lost it because he can’t handle the work load of a starter.

Regardless, Joba now remains a question mark until he proves otherwise. Just think, if we had Wang, Joba would’ve been in Scranton in August. Amazing how far he’s gone south.

[21] his fastball is “very good” for what? Getting crushed? His FB was 21 (!) runs below average per 100 pitches (i think that’s what it is…)according to Fangraphs.

Using FanGraphs, Joba had the 12th best avg FB velocity of all starters (w/ at least 150IP).  While not dominant like 2008 (best among all AL pitchers w/ at least 100IP), that’s still plenty good enough to be an effective pitcher.  As Rich mentions, the higher velocity gives him more margin for error, but the velo by itself wasn’t the problem.  Not throwing strikes early in the count, not being able to use his secondary pitches effectively, and then when he was forced to throw strikes w/ his fastball, getting too much of the zone, were his problems.

And with all that went wrong last season FanGraphs had him as basically an average pitcher (about .1 WAR for every 10IP).  SG, not sure if you already started your next player review, but since you opened the Joba door…?

OT but, from Baseball Projections new blog:

Shelley Duncan projects to a solid 257/340/512.  He actually got a chance to play a little bit in 2007, and hit very well in a Kevin Maas/Shane Spencer kind of way.  Back in the minors almost all of last year, he hit another 30 homers.  His projection of 16 runs above average is comparable to the DH options on the free agent market.  It might make sense for the Yankees to give Duncan the job on the cheap, that way if Posada or A-Rod have injuries and need to DH you aren’t wasting an expensive bat on the bench.  Instead of spending 10-12 million for a left fielder and a DH, just go to the top of the market and get Holliday as your left fielder.  Duncan is already 30, so he’s not a long term option, but probably has as much to offer from here to the end of his career as Hideki Matsui has from age 36 to the end of his career.

His FB was 21 (!) runs below average per 100 pitches (i think that’s what it is…)according to Fangraphs.

No, his fastball was 21 runs below average for the season.  It was 1.26 runs below average per 100 pitches.  And what does this have to do with velocity?  Josh Beckett’s 2008 94.3 mph fastball was worth 1.05 runs above average per 100 pitches; his 2009 94.1 mph fastball was worth 0.10 and his 2006 94.7 mph fastball was worth -0.18.

Duncan is already 30, so he’s not a long term option, but probably has as much to offer from here to the end of his career as Hideki Matsui has from age 36 to the end of his career.

I’d be willing to bet a dollar that Duncan does not in fact project to be more valuable than Matsui for the rest of their respective careers.  I’d be willing to bet another dollar that Duncan does not project to be more valuable than Matsui in 2010.  And I’d be willing to go double or nothing that Duncan is out of baseball before Matsui.

I mean, what the hell, it’s four bucks max.

I would be willing to bet* that Duncan isn’t on the Yankees’ 25 man roster to open the season.

*Actually, I don’t bet because I had too many vices as a young person and I didn’t want to add gambling to it.

If PECOTA is projecting a 257/340/512 season from Shelley Duncan, somebody gave PECOTA crack.

Re: Joba.  I’m worried, of course, about his shoulder because pitchers shoulders are scary.  If and when I see him out there throwing the way he used to, I’ll be happy and I’ll relax a bit.  But he’s clearly lost something post-injury, and I hope it’s just mechanics or mental (trying to avoid re-injury), not a physical issue (this seems highly unlikely). 

Granted, he’s got enough “stuff” to be effective, even if it’s not his A stuff.  But he’ll take his lumps figuring out how (see: Hughes, Phil).

[34] CHONE

I also long for 2007 Joba’s slider. He showed flashes in the playoffs but that thing used to make Randy Johnson’s slider look like Wayne Franklin’s.

Seriously?  CHONE is projecting that for Duncan?  Well, I think CHONE is on crack.

Joba’s slider: POOMA theory: the slider isn’t all that much different, but guys have identified it and are laying off it, so it is less effective.

Of course, losing ~4-5 mph on the slider might be what’s making it easier to pick up…

I’d be willing to bet a dollar that Duncan does not in fact project to be more valuable than Matsui for the rest of their respective careers.

Well that’s not really a bet, b/c what do you mean by project?  CHONE projects 16 RAA (I don’t think it is position-adjusted) for Duncan, and 13 for Matsui.  The player-pages aren’t up yet w/ multi-year projections, but I doubt if CHONE is going to project Duncan to hit better in 2010 but not in 2011.  The James system doesn’t have a projection for Duncan (at least not on FanGraphs).  So pretty clearly Duncan “projects” to be more valuable.

So either you mean a particular system won’t (like CAIRO), a non-system like scouts/fans won’t, or you aren’t talking about projections but what will happen, which will be as much about opportunity as skill.  So no, I won’t take that bet.

What I do think, is if the choice is get Holliday and start the year w/ Duncan as the DH (or a Duncan/Miranda platoon), or mix-and-match aging veterans at LF/DH, I’d take the former.  Hopefully they can do Holliday + something more proven at DH, but…I don’t control the Yankees spending.

[37 & 38] W/o looking at the actual pitch-data, I think he was also falling behind in the count more often.  It’s harder to *not* swing at the slider if you’ve just taken strikes 1 & 2 on 95+ MPH fastballs.  2-0, 2-1, much easier to lay off the slider.

i miss joba’s slider most of all. it was like mussina’s knuckle-curve, coming in at 89mph.

Well that’s not really a bet, b/c what do you mean by project?

Well, let’s say the average of a large number of different projection systems.  And I do mean different—they’d have to use different weightings of various factors in order to be representative of a variety of ways of evaluating the players’ potential.  And then let’s also say what Rob said.

From the rigorous point of view of sitting in an armchair staring at the tube, the problems isn’t guys laying off it—it’s just not The Slider of Doom anymore. It used to have a freak-show insane vertical break, along with a rambunctious, if ultimately mentally healthy horizontal one. Left-handed hitters were swinging from their heels at pitches that almost smashed their toes.

[42] Fair enough - and I’m guessing by that you’d mean if SG did a player-preview using CHONE, CAIRO, PECOTA, ZIPS, and MARCEL like in years past.  But if they average out to Duncan better claiming they’re all on crack is not valid

Pretty sure Marcels doesn’t use MLE data at all so Matsui will be higher on that one, don’t know about the rest.

Shelly Duncan.  He’s 30 and he hasn’t spent a full year - or even close to a full year - in the majors.  There’s a reason for that.  Expecting him to outproduce a guy like Matsui is ridiculous.  Duncan is roster fodder and nothing more.

I’d like to think Cone is correct and Joba should be fully healed from his shoulder injury.  If Joba can stay in reasonable shape during the offseason and is fully healed, he could be headed for a great year in the rotation.

The thing that scares me most about Joba’s 2009 starter FB is that it only got a swing and a miss 3.3% of the time.  I don’t care about pure velocity, but if he’s not getting swings and misses with his fastball at a better rate than that, it’s going to be pretty tough for him to get back to where he looked to be in 2008.  Of course, maybe that’s just not realistic.

But if they average out to Duncan better claiming they’re all on crack is not valid

Sure.  Only the outlier(s) can arguably be on crack.

He’s 30 and he hasn’t spent a full year - or even close to a full year - in the majors.

There you go with those pesky facts.

There’s a reason for that.

Yes, it’s the same reason that Andy Phillips never got 500 PA in the majors in a single season.  Depending on your POV, the reason is either that the player isn’t good enough or that his team isn’t smart enough.

Only the outlier(s) can arguably be on crack.

Or smarter than everyone else, if they turn out to be right.  Unless they disagree with me, in which case they were lucky

Yes, it’s the same reason that Andy Phillips never got 500 PA in the majors in a single season.  Depending on your POV, the reason is either that the player isn’t good enough or that his team isn’t smart enough.

Or both.  These types of players often don’t get an extended look until they’re 28, 29, 30 years old.  And then they’ll put up an OPS+ of 80 or 90 or something, and it’s, “see, we told you!”  You never know if they had gotten a chance earlier, more in their prime, if they could have been 100-110 OPS+.  Which isn’t going to light the world on fire, but at most positions is at least acceptable, especially for <$500K.  So the teams weren’t smart enough to give them a chance when the players would be most successful, but the players weren’t good enough to hold even a semi-regular job for more than a few years anyway.

Of course, Duncan is entering his age 30 season, so chances are even if he would have had the 127 OPS+ for a full season at age 27, chances are he’d now be down to the 90-100 range anyway.  Which is fine if the Yankees have room for a righty-PH/5th OF, but probably not for a full-time DH.  Again though, if going w/ Duncan as the DH is a precondition for getting an elite LF…it also makes it more likely that we see Montero in the second half of the year if Duncan is the DH in the first half.

Put it this way, if we use the CHONE system, and knock Duncan down 16 runs to be exactly average (0 runs), Duncan + Holliday would be worth more offensively than Matsui + Damon (27 runs to 21 runs).  Factor in defense (Holliday > Damon, Duncan >> Matsui), and to me it’s a no brainer.  IF they can sign Holliday and can’t afford a DH.

You never know if they had gotten a chance earlier, more in their prime, if they could have been 100-110 OPS+.

Of course.  But my problem with the Andy Phillips fan club was that they seemed to think that players don’t start aging until they get a full-time shot in the majors.  There was never a hint of acknowledgment that he had spent his peak seasons at AAA and giving him 500 at-bats at age 30 wasn’t going to get those years back.  IOW, nothing at all like your last paragraph.

[50] Well we (yes, I was a card-carrying member) were pushing for it in his age 27 and 28 seasons as well.  Then by his age 29 season, we had a built in excuse - if Torre would just *use* him properly, he’d hit!  Mostly it was pent up frustration.  Partly was we were dumber then, and peak-age was 28-32, *not* 26-30.  But we’re smarter now (I think). 

If Yanks improve enough in other places I’m willing to give Duncan a shot.  DH’s can be found during the season.  By the middle of May some team will have a Thome or a Dunn or something they’re looking to unload.  So worst case, Duncan sucks, they promote Montero or someobdy, or trade for a DH.  But that’s if the option is low-cost DH + Holliday or other unidentifed 4+ win corner OF, or relying on multiple 35+ players to repeat unexpectadly good years.

Of course, a better comparison might be the one between Duncan and other relatively low-cost DH options.  Eric Hinske isn’t going to break the bank, and while he’s not going to be projected to slug .512, he’s probably a much safer bet to actually hit what he’s projected to.  And for that matter, how much is a guy like Thome going to get anyway?

Not that I’m advocating either of those guys specifically, but the universe of options isn’t limited to Damon + Matsui vs. Holliday + Duncan.

You could do a Duncan/Hinske platoon.  Or a Duncan/Miranda platoon.

These aren’t necessarily terrible options.  I think the Yanks can do better. 

However, if somehow the choice is between Holliday + cheapo DH and NotHolliday + moreofasurethingDH, I’ll take the former.  Not that I think that’s the choice.

Not that I’m advocating either of those guys specifically, but the universe of options isn’t limited to Damon + Matsui vs. Holliday + Duncan.

Certainly not.  We’ve been talking about Duncan so I used him for, “low-cost, low-upside, easily replaceable DH”.  I don’t mind a Duncan/(Hinske|Miranda) platoon b/c those players can also play the field occasionally as well.  One of the advantages of Duncan is they have him, they don’t have to go get him (or resign him).  So if you will, pencil Duncan into the DH slot that they’ll *try* to upgrade.  And if they do Duncan will probably be traded/DFA’d.

However, if somehow the choice is between Holliday + cheapo DH and NotHolliday + moreofasurethingDH, I’ll take the former.  Not that I think that’s the choice.

I think it’s likely that Cashman will be able to get Holliday and still afford an upgrade at DH.  But then again, maybe he (or Hal) are unwilling to.  Whether for financial or political reasons.  I guess I’m just putting my claim out there now, that if Cash signs Holliday and goes with “low cost option” at DH I’m not going to complain.

[21]Preaching to the choir.