The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster

Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster.  With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster.  Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.

Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina

Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino

On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez

Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada

Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit

On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez

Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui

On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha

Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi

There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH.  That gives the Yanks three slots to fill.  If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player. 

The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player.  Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.

The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut.  Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts.  Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings.  Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone.  Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does.  If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either.  The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree.  The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang.  Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home.  However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa.  I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game.  Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.

That leaves one other pitcher to take.  Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him.  Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.

Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season.  For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.

Bruney - You know the deal with this guy.  Great fastball, horrendous command.

Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch.  I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.

Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness.  Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.

Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings.  He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.

Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO.  Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot.  He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings).  He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.

Not a very inspiring bunch.  I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand.  I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.

I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…

--Posted at 8:08 am by SG / 67 Comments | - (1735)

Comments

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Has it been confirmed that that Yanks are going with a 4-man rotation in the post-season?  I know Torre has usually done this, but with the extra off day, should we go with a 3-man rotation? 

1- Wang
2- Pettitte
3- Clemens
4- Wang
5- Pettitte

This would (a) let the Yanks use Mussina at the first sign of trouble and (b) ensure that Wang would get a start at home- assuming game 4 needs to be played.

Here’s who I would take:

1. Alberto Gonzalez: I agree with this selection.  They need a flexible INF with a good glove.  A guy who can be a late-inning defensive replacement as well as an adequate pinch runner.  He’s the guy.

2. Ross Ohlendorf - yes, he’s only been in three games, but he looks good.  Ramirez, to me, looks to have trouble with the better, more patient hitters.  He’ll be seeing lots of those in the playoffs.

3.  Ron Villone - he scares me less than Igawa.  That’s the best I can say.  Neck-and-neck with Villone would be Britton.  If I were GM, I’d make the case for him, but I know Torre would probably not use him unless it was the last resort.  No sense wasting a spot on a guy who won’t get used.

FYI - how bad is Kennedy’s back?  Is it possible he can rejoin the team if they make it to the ALCS or even WS?

I did this over at BTF on 9/19—projecting who I thought they would take rather than who I wanted—and came up with this (it’s in Count the Rings if anyone wants to see my logic):

C: Posada, Molina (2)
1B: Giambi, Mientkiewicz (2)
2B: Cano (1)
SS: Jeter, Betemit (2)
3B: A-Rod (1)
LF: Matsui, Damon (2)
CF: Melky (1)
RF: Abreu, Duncan (2)

SP: Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina (4)
RP: Mo, Joba, Vizcaino, Ramirez, Farnsworth, Villone, Hughes, Kennedy (8)

For the LDS at least, you can scrath Kennedy off that list, so that gives them another spot. Frankly, slotting Igawa in here doesn’t really bother me—though it doesn’t thrill me either—because he’s probably the best of a bunch of bad options.

Ohlendorf has pitched his way into contention since I wrote that, so if you want to give him Ramirez spot, you could, although it’s probably a toss-up.

Although I agree with SG that 11 pitchers would be optimal—espcially if they get the long series—I think Joe will probably take 12 which is why Gonzalez gets left off my roster. If it was my choice things might be different, but of course, it ain’t my choice.

el viz is scaring the shit out of me too.
I say they should just take Britton. At least no one has had a look at him. He could work out well with the big O.

i would start matt desalvo or chase wright today and bring Hughes out of the pen in the 6th inning for a 1-2 inning stint.  i would then do this again on Saturday.

Hughes should be considered as a candidate for regular relief, at least in the ALDS.  there is really no one beyond Joba and Mo that can be trusted.

they also need to give Ohlendorf an audition.  Edwar should not be given a spot, IMO, as he is completely unpredictable.

as for the bench, i would consider Sardinha because Matsui is going to DH.  if something happens to an OFer, do you really want Shelley Duncan playing the OF?
also, i know the Attorney General has a sparkling defensive reputation, he has not shown that in the majors/ST.  he still seems nervous playing with the big club.  and which of A-Rod, Jeter, or Cano are you going to be pinch hitting/running or replacing defensively in extra innings?  those 3 guys are going to play every inning of every game.

if the Yanks get down past Betemit, they are probably in deep trouble anyway.

I agree with yup on all counts.  Hughes needs some practice coming out of the pen, Ohlendorf deserves a closer look and the ex AG has looked shaky in the field (probably due to nerves, the same as when Melky came up perhaps).  Besides, Betemit is a capable utility infielder and Sardinha is obviously going to be the pinch runner since he seems to get the nod whenever Posada reaches second base these days.

I would go with the same people you went with. I find it amazing that there are rumors Bronson Sardinha might make the roster as a PR/defensive replacement. If that was EVER going to be considered, why wouldn’t we have called up Justin Christian or Brett Gardner?

If the Yankees wind up with the eight day division series, they not only could go with three starters, but Chamberlain and Rivera could quite possibly pitch in every game.  Hell, they could pitch two innings each in several games.  This makes me not so sure that whoever draws the Yankees will pick the schedule with the extra day off.

which of A-Rod, Jeter, or Cano are you going to be pinch hitting/running or replacing defensively in extra innings?  those 3 guys are going to play every inning of every game

If one of them gets hurt, then Betemit is starting.  And you very well might want to pinch hit or put in a defensive replacement for him.

Sox fan here, just wanted to say congrats on an amazing comeback season!

I agree with your 22 basic guys, but I think carrying 11 pitchers with all those offdays is insane.  You’re carrying Hughes as a swingman and injury insurance, so you don’t need another swingman.  I say you take Britton, who had really good numbers in the minors and last year in the majors, and seems an inexplicably forgotten man.  That gives you 10 pitchers, which oughtta be more than enough considering how few back-to-back games there are anyway.  I think you’d rather have a 5th short reliever than a 2nd swingman, especially since I wouldn’t want to count on Farnsworth and Vizcaino very much, which would leave you with two effective short relievers if you carry a swingman.  Obviously, you can argue for other short relievers over Britton, and I doubt the Yankees are going to take him since he clearly #(@*-ed someone’s mother or something, but the important thing is to take a short reliever and not a second swingman.  And the other important thing is to take one more pitcher and two more position players, since the extra offdays make an 11-man staff pointless, and the tactical advantage of having extra position players could be a big help.

That allows you to carry an extra infielder and outfielder.  Sardinha is your best bet as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. (Though is Gardner available?  If so, I’d definitely consider taking him, even with no ML experience.  That man is fast.)  And, unless you count Wilson Betemit, you have no backup MIF unless you take Alberto “I Don’t Remember” Gonzalez.  Even if Jeter and Cano play every day, and don’t really need defensive replacements or pinch-runners for them (though obviously that’s arguable in Jeter’s case, especially if his legs worsen), if one of them goes down (God forfend), you don’t want to be playing Betemit at SS.

So my last three guys are Britton (or arguably another short reliever), Sardinha (or maybe Gardner if he’s available), and Gonzalez.

With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster.

Doesn’t the rule actually give them the flexibility to use anyone in the organization to replace a guy on the DL (as long as it’s pitcher for pitcher or position player for position player)?

MC, I think you’re right.  It’s not restricted to the 40 man roster, they just have to have been in the organization at the end of August.

If one of them gets hurt, then Betemit is starting.  And you very well might want to pinch hit or put in a defensive replacement for him.

you can say the same thing about Shelley Duncan.

of course, if we are talking about SS, then it’s more important to have the defensive replacement than it is for the OFer…

i don’t know, tough call.

i count 43 players on the 40 man roster and 4 of them on the 60 day DL.  that would mean Gardner could be addded to the 40 man without making another roster move, right?

of course, if they were thinking of doing this, he’d be up here already i suppose.

Wow.  I’m new here, but judging by the picks for the playoff roster, I’m in the right place!  I agree with every pick, including (strangely) Igawa and Ohlendorf, although I really do need to see more of Ohlendorf.  I’m not sure I order the starters the same way though.  Yes, I know Wang’s record on the road, but don’t we want the sinkerballer going at Jacob’s field?  Clemens relies on a lot more long fly outs than Wang, and there’s no such thing as long fly outs at Jacobs - it’s called a home run there.  I think I go Wang, Pettite, Clemens, Moose. 

My question, who bats 5th?  I like Posada because he just offers more protection over A-Rod, though I sense Matsui is ready to break out of his slump at just the right time, and he’s definitely clutch.  Or maybe even Cano 5th - check out that power surge! 

By the way, does anyone know definitively that if we play Anaheim in the ALCS, and have a better record, we’re still away because we’re a wildcard?  That’s my instinct, but I can’t find the rule.

Gonzalez, Ohlendorf, and Kid Igawa is fine with me… if we have to count on them to help us win, we’re doomed anyway. Pitching-wise, we need innings eaters, and we certainly could use a pinch runner.

Wild card cannot have HFA, regardless of record.

Just to be clear, MC in VA, that goes also for the ALCS, rather than just the division series, right?  Because we know the wildcard can (and will) have homefield in the WS smile

Taking 12 pitchers to an ALDS is a colossal waste of roster space. Hell, I think taking 11 is a waste, but the Yankees need backup for Moose and Clemens, and with IPK not available, that means they need another swingman.

If the Yankees get the 8-day series, splitting Wang and Pettitte up solely for bullpen rest purposes is a HORRIBLE idea.

However, with the 7-day series, Pettitte starts Game 1, Mussina goes in Game 2, and then you have Wang and Clemens in games 3 and 4. I say Mussina in game 2 because Clemens, like Wang, has been horrendous on the road. Mussina has been horrendous in general, but you get more of an advantage with Clemens and Wang both pitching at home. Then you get Pettitte, on the road, for Game 5.

The 8-day series is clearly humongously advantageous for the Yankees. You get Wang and Pettitte on the road, but then you get Clemens for Game 3 at home, followed closely by Wang at home the day after. Then, if it gets that far, you have Pettitte waiting for you to start on the road in Game 5. You could not ask for a better setup than that. Here’s hoping.

IMHO, I think there are already 23 roster spots set.  Villone will be on the PS roster, unless something unexpected happens in the next week.  Torre will insist on a lefty, and I think if you gave him the option of one of Villone or Igawa, he would take Villone.

For the other two?  I’d say take both Gonzalez AND Sardinha, because as others have pointed out, they don’t need 11 pitchers in the ALDS.  Especially if they get the 8 day schedule.  Give the extra flexibility on the bench.  But if you HAVE to take an 11th pitcher…I’d hope to see Ohlendorf and Igawa each get two more innings in the next few games and go from there.  Either one should be able to give three innings out of the bullpen, which should be plenty.  I’d like to see a couple of more outings before I’d make a decision though.

Yes, HFA in the WS has nothing to do with records or status as division winner or wild card.  It’s apparently based on some meaningless exhibition game that was played back in July.

I agree that splitting up Wang and Pettite should not be a priority.  With the eight day schedule, you can get Wang at home in game four even if he starts game one, and you can still get Pettitte twice on the road.  So there’s no advantage to be gained there.  With the seven day schedule, I think I’d rather have Wang get just the one start at home in game three.

There is, of course, the issue of having someone like Igawa or Villone on the post season roster, and not have them being used the way that they should be. Does anyone think that if Villone is on the postseason roster that he won’t be pitching in the 7th inning of a 2-2 game on the road? They need to go with the most effective pitcher on the list, and then peg him as the innings eater if something goes wrong. Chris Britton is probably this guy, but I suppose you could make a case for Ohlendorf because he’s looked sharp.

I fucking hate the New York Post. I saw it sitting on a rack today, and the back page is all about how Torre doesn’t yet have a contract extension. What a bunch of assclowns.

Nice quote from ARod via LoHud:

Then there was this quote from Alex Rodriguez:

“This feels like home. It’s hard to believe that I played for another two organizations. So much has happened to me here, adversity, some success, that I feel like anything but New York feels weird for me now.”

Cutter - nice post with the quotes of despair.  How about quotes predicting the team would be where they are now?

MLBTR has the Dodgers shopping Matt Kemp.  Damon + Farnsworth and tons of cash for Kemp?

which lefty sits the bench against CC? i would think shelley gets the start at dh in that one.

Jeter, ARod and Po all have great numbers against Sabathia FWIW.. but a lot of that may come from when Sabathia was a 4.5 ERA guy…

I haven’t chimed in since May (baby on the way, among other reasons), but I’ve been reading the blog all season and am loving the run this team has made. Favorite season for me since ‘98 (I go back to ‘79 with the Yanks) come what may in the playoffs. Regarding the bullpen, I can’t say I have a good feeling as to who should take those last two spots, but I keep thinking about the value of a fourth reliever who can come in and get a big out in a tight spot mid-game a la R. Mendoza in the ‘99 ALCS. Ohlendorf might be lightning in a bottle towards that end since he can get ground balls and is relatively unknown. I’d go with him and one of the lefties, but I can’t bring myself to actually choose between Igawa and Villone. Igawa did pitch well out of the pen against Boston back in the spring when Karstens was knocked out with the broken leg, and he can get a strikeout, so there’s some logic to picking him. SG’s other choices make sense to me, but I wouldn’t want to separate Wang and Pettite if the Yanks get the longer series and can pitch them each twice.

which lefty sits the bench against CC? i would think shelley gets the start at dh in that one.

i would be FLOORED if Torre sat one of his veterans for Shelley Duncan.

and that’s not to say he should.

Matsui will probably be the DH with Giambi held in reserve to PH for Mientkiewicz late in games.

yup, Torre doesn’t have to worry about veterans… it’s resting time!

Oops, misread your point… Maybe Dougie-M? Hopefully. Torre of course, doesn’t care about platoon advantages when it comes to veteraness.

I said fourth releiver, forgetting about Farnsworth there. Sigh. Well, I think the point is clear enough.

Maybe Hughes can be the 2007 version of Mendoza?

Let’s just hope he has a more successful career.

Who I’d tap:

Definites:

C:
1. Jorge Posada
2. Jose Molina

IF:
3. Jason Giambi
4. Doug Mientkiewicz
5. Robinson Cano
6. Derek Jeter
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Wilson Betemit

OF:
9. Johnny Damon
10. Hideki Matsui
11. Melky Cabrera
12. Bobby Abreu
13. Shelley Duncan

P:
14: Chien-Ming Wang
15: Andy Pettitte
16: Roger Clemens
17: Mike Mussina
18: Phil Hughes
19: Mariano Rivera
20: Joba Chamberlain
21: Luis Vizcaino

After that—I think you take two more pitchers, but I’m fucked if I can figure out who. I think the next four days are tryouts, but unless Edwar rights the ship (which I don’t see happening), he doesn’t make it. Ditto Bruney. Karstens and Henn shouldn’t even be considered, and honestly neither should Igawa. They’re all either rejects or projects for 2008.

That leaves Ohlendorf, Britton, Veras, Farnsworth, and Villone. I’d go with Ohlendorf and Britton—my money’s on Torre going with Farnsworth and Villone.

I’d give the remaining spots to Gonzalez and Sardinha, but I’ll bet real money that Torre goes with 12 pitchers and those last two slots go to some combo of Ohlendorf, Veras, Britton, Bruney, and/or Edwar.

SG- I imagine you’re going to do a vs. Angels and vs. Indians projection?

Also, can you do residuals on the projections for the team and the individual players? That may be a tall order.. if so, no worries. Just thought it might be interesting to see how well these systems are predicting the .. past.

Cleveland is 3 games up on Anaheim in the loss column, with 4 to play, and they own the tiebreaker, having taken 4 of 7.  Thus, no point in doing a vs. Angels projection.

Ohnnyp’s right, I’ll probably just do Yankees vs. Indians comparison once we know that’s the actual matchup.

As far as retrospective look at the projections for the teams and individual players, it’s a good project to do, but I think it’s more of an offseason one.  I’ll file it in my to-do list though.

Fabian, I believe Justin Christian is injured.

j —  Alex was swooning over San Francisco earlier this year. It means nothing. This does: $$$$$$$

With how bad Bruney Farnsworth Ramirez and Veras have been, can Ohlendorf really hurt the team in the playoffs? He can only be as bad as they have. It’s no longer a matter of taking whoever is the best choice, but leaving whoever is the worst. To me, that says Ohlendorf.

Knowing Torre (and otehrs), though, it’s gonna be villone. He’s shown he can pitch as a yankee (see last year before he got the scott proctor treatment), and he’s hardly pitched this year. He can give you innings in case you go to extras, he’s a lefty and he has experience. If he does bad, then itll be a terrible move, but there’s no way of knowing if he’ll be any better than anyone else. So I’ve basically accepted that he’s gonna be there, and all in all it’s not an awful move, considering the possibilties.

Whats interesting to me isfarnsworth. Cn you really take him? Everytime he comes in with the game on the line (really just when the score is close, even if the game doesnt matter, see hughes’ last start against toronto) he tanks. He can’t be relied on whatsoever, but you know that if he’s on the roster he’s gonna pitch (not just cause it’s torre but because that’s why they brought him). I’m not comfortable wiht the idea that one game we might have to rely on him. I;m not even comfortable with the idea that one day he might be anywher near the playing field. Can we just ban him from yankee games?

Not sure I want Phil Huggies on the roster, don’t think he deserves it. I don’t want Ohlendorf though.

Some not so fun metrics:  Yanks have the highest team ERA of the 4 AL playoff teams.  They are tied for second with Cleveland in defense, with Boston first, and LAA last. We’re second to LAA in SB, with Bos third and Cle way behind (they are slowww).  My favorite metric—run differential—produces an uncomfortable result:  Bos +207, NYY +183, Cle +106, LAA +89.  Bos is clearly the team to beat.  Nevertheless, we and LAA have winning records against them.  They own Cleveland 5-2, so don’t believe them when they say they want to play LAA.

I agree that Shelley won’t get the nod in Game 1—too valuable leading boisterous cheers from the dugout—though he probably would if I were filling out the lineup card.  Only one I could imagine Joe sitting is Minky, and if Wang is matched up against CC, then that’s a mistake for defensive reasons. 

Keith, I don’t think Farnsworth is on the bubble at all—he’s in.  Like it or not.  [Sigh].  I also think Villone is in.

As I watched Igawa tack on goose eggs the other night, I broke out in hives thinking that this performance could actually earn him a PS roster spot.  I see the point of those saying he could be an innings eater if Clemens’ hammy turns to rice pudding in the 2nd inning.  But should we fall behind, say, 5-0 in the 4th, I don’t think it’s worth “conceding” by sending a dreadful pitcher out there.  After all it was Moose not Weaver – he had his screw-the-pooch moment later that October – who went out there in the middle innings of Game 7 2003 ALCS.

I see the point of those who say a 12-man pitching staff is probably overkill, especially since Joe won’t trust the last 3 guys anyway.  But I just don’t like the idea of a player as green as Sardinha in the Clay Bellinger/Andy Fox role.  [Little known fact BTW…Posada actually was in the Sardinha role in the 1995 ALDS.  Scored the tying run as a pinch-runner (!) a few innings before Leyritz’ walkoff HR].

All said and done, I think Joe’s last 3 roster spots will go to: Sardinha, Edwar, Villone.

If I were picking: Britton, Ohlendorf, Villone.

I saw Britton a lot with the O’s last year and he can be overpowering.  Edwar a surprise?  Yeah, I wouldn’t do it, but reading Joe’s mind…he’s already SEEN this guy succeed over a period of a few weeks, which he can’t say about Ohlie, Veras or Britton.

How does Hughes not “deserve it”?

who are the 5 non-Joba/Mo pitchers that are better?

Yeah - what’s up with your Hughes views, Don?  We’ll be watching him closely tonight, anyway.

Doesn’t the rule actually give them the flexibility to use anyone in the organization to replace a guy on the DL (as long as it’s pitcher for pitcher or position player for position player)?

FYI, that rule was changed with the new CBA. Any player can now replace any player.

SG, I think you’re right on the money for the core of the team.

As for the few extras, I’d go with Villone for certain and Edwar if he posts a few decent innings in these last few games, because as Joe Torre has said, he likes to show teams a different look. If Edwar doesnt get straight, I’d go with Britton. He at least throws more strikes than Veras.

As for the final spot, if the Yankees get the longer schedule, I’d pick whichever of Gonzalez or Sardinha is a better pinch runner for speed. Giambi, Dougy, and Posada are all slow and in a close game, speed matters.

If the Yankees get the shorter schedule and Kennedy remains unavailable, I’d take the extra long man in case both Clemens and Mussina get hit early and often. I dont think Villone is good for more than 2 innings which leads me to Igawa and Karstens as mopup man in a lost cause. I guess I’d pick Karstens in that case but not with a lot of conviction.

Karstens has never EVER had a decent outing this year.  He has an ERA over 11. Even the game he won, he was saved by Melky’s defense.  Karsens is not even the Nieves of pitchers and I found it laughable watching him spray champagne last night.  Villone will almost certainly make the roster by default since neither Bruney or Edwar or Britton or Veras has shown enough.  Ohlendorf is unknown but unless you can provide a reason he struggled so in the minors and he excells in the next few days, he’s probably a pass.  But Karstens-no thanks.  To use one of the favorite exclamations of disgust on thus site, if Karstens makes the roster I’d throw up in my mouth.

Alex was swooning

Swooning? He said he likes the stadium and the city. I wonder what the question was that was posed to him as well. But I’m sure you right.. nothing matters except the money. You’re never wrong.

Bepop,

I agree about the lack of performance from Karstens who pitched poorly this year and decently last year.

The problem is that after Mariano, Joba, Viz its a crapshoot. The last pitcher, particularly if its the 12th, needs to be someone who can eat innings in a lost cause. Who is that gonna be?

The candidates are in no particular order are: Clippard, DeSalvo, Igawa, Karstens.

No matter who you pick, it aint pretty

Ohlendorf is unknown but unless you can provide a reason he struggled so in the minors and he excells in the next few days, he’s probably a pass.

Totally agree on your Karstens take. But disagree on Ohlendorf. Yesterday IE and I were posting about his early season back troubles being the culprit for his poor early performance in AAA. When converted to the bullpen in early August, he improved his K rate and drastically improved his BB rate and GB/FB ratio. It was only 21 minor league innings, and just 3.2 with the Yanks so far, but it’s a positive trend.

Tonight’s lineup might remind us of the 4th Qtr of a preseason football game. Except they’ll all be hungover. So it’ll be interesting to see how Hughes does, and hopefully Ohlendorf in relief.

Alex has also said he wants to stay in the AL.

not saying he won’t bolt, and he could even go to the cubs, but he isn’t going to go to a terrible team like SF with little chance even if their offer is slightly higher.

he went to Texas b/c they outbid everyone by tens of millions.  that won’t happen again.  Texas was all alone in the stratosphere b/c the Yankees and Boston both had superstar SS’s already, the Mets weren’t involved b/c Steve Phillips is a moron, and the Angels were still owned by Disney.  throw the Tigers, the Cubs, and the White Sox into the mix this time, and you will get a bunch of teams all making competitive offers.  he’ll go to a team that has a chance of winning, hopefully the Yankees, b/c the money will be close.

i think he stays, but who knows at this point?

The candidates are in no particular order are: Clippard, DeSalvo, Igawa, Karstens.

No matter who you pick, it aint pretty

none of those guys will make the roster.

Correction: Not sure if Clippard or DeSalvo would be considered eligible.

Bottom line, there is no attractive 12th pitcher.

Not sure I want Phil Huggies on the roster, don’t think he deserves it.
On what planet does not putting Phil Hughes on the roster make any sense at all? Have you been sniffing glue today Don?

Not to pile on poor Don, but who would you replace Hughes with if he is not on the postseason roster?

Yeah, maybe if the Yankees had some stronger candidates, then MAYBE you think of excluding Hughes, but really, he’s just a rung above all these other relief question marks.

By the by, the race for HFA is going to be quite interesting these last handful of games.

If Boston gets it, I imagine they’d take the long series (as they have great pitching depth - Wakefield is their #4!). But would Cleveland do so if they knew it meant that the Yankees could line up Wang/Pettitte/Clemens/Wang/Pettitte, with Joba and Mo rested?

It seems to me that the better shot of taking down the Yankees would be to make them play the short series. But the thought of Cleveland lining up Sabathia/Carmona/Westbrook/Sabathia/Carmona must sound pretty good to them, too. I guess it is a matter of playing to your strengths or playing to your opponnents weaknesses…

Sorry, typo - I meant Boston would take the SHORT series because of their pitching depth.

Apparently everyone’s assuming Boston wants the short series (A), though Francona demurred on the subject. I think whoever it is needs to think about themselves and the other team. If we go top and drew Cleveland, you definitely go with the short series to avoid seeing CC and Fausto twice, regardless of what we think of ourselves; not sure that’s as true about Anaheim. I also think that with both Cleveland and Anaheim coming across the country we might consider the short series, since we’d be home for nearly two straight weeks and plenty rested. At this point let’s assume the only other scenario is Cleveland first, and playing the Yankees. I’m pretty sure they pick B to keep CC and Fausto going and don’t fret over whether that makes the Yankee rotation better (which it probably does).

I’ve been stymied on the question of who we’d rather play, given the almost uncanny equality of the four teams, but have seen one interesting point: Anaheim has essentially no quality lefties… we suck at hitting lefthanded pitching… ergo, bring on the Angels. I’m not sure the Yankees have any difficulty with pitchers on one side of the rubber or the other.

p.s. Presumably HFA is only of interest to two teams now. The Angels are resting/licking wounds. Little Sarge dinged his knee last night…

The Yankees also suck at hitting left handers, but the Angels also have Yankee Kryptonite sewn into their uniforms, apparently…..

they have great pitching depth - Wakefield is their #4!

Wakefield: 182 IP, 95 ERA+
Byrd: 186 IP, 97 ERA+
Saunders: 107 IP, 98 ERA+

I’m not sure why Wakefield gets an exclamation point.  Those are all pretty solid #4s.

I’m pretty sure they pick B to keep CC and Fausto going and don’t fret over whether that makes the Yankee rotation better (which it probably does).

It also makes the Yankee bullpen better, which is perhaps a bigger deal.  On the 8-day schedule, you could conceivably see four Joba/Mo innings four times.

My favorite metric—run differential—produces an uncomfortable result:  Bos +207, NYY +183, Cle +106, LAA +89.  Bos is clearly the team to beat.

Since May 30:

BOS +123 (58-50)
NYY +166 (71-38)

Regarding pitching, I would use Hughes over Mussina in rotation and use Mussina for long-relief.  I would use Chamberlain over Rivera for closer and use Rivera for set-up man (how can you beat a 0.38 ERA—do you want to win the Series or not?). I would leave Vizcaino and Farsworth off the roster and use Ohlendorf, Igawa, Villone, and Veras; Farnsworth has been a line-drive machine and the others hae been better lately.

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