“They could have won all three games in Boston last weekend.”

Overused and useless cliche, especially in a game like baseball. One game sure. Three and you’ve got a pattern. It’s means nothing that they were close.

The point is that even though they were facing a much stronger starting pitcher than they were throwing out there in two of the games, and one at the very least as good as theirs in the other, they were still in position to win every game.

Tonight, they have what I’d consider an even matchup, tomorrow they are outmatched, and Sunday they have the edge, and their lineup is better.  They should win two of three.  They can sweep.  If the offense wakes up from last night, that is.

i could watch that little picture all day.

If I were a Yankees fan (and I’m not.  Full disclosure: Red Sox fan, but I try to be fair-minded), this is the part that would have me worried: ‘Joe Torre’s inept handling of his relievers is wearing the bullpen out.’

The current spate of injuries should work itself out.  Slumps end.  The Yankees will improve their depressing (or inspirational, depending on perspective) 2 and 10 in close games.  Even if Bostons sweeps this weekend, it’s only April.  And the Yankees have a fine run differential.

But if the bullpen is gassed by the end of May, that’s something that won’t right itself by the middle of June.  It’ll drag down the close games mark all season long and magnify any further shakiness in the rotation.

And that little picture does rock.

Silly animated .gifs; bringing together Red Sox and Yankees fans.

“Some have wondered why the Yankees didn’t get Matsuzaka.  The answer is simple: the Red Sox bid an irrationally high amount to win his negotiating rights, with the intention of either getting him at a bargain rate or at least keeping him in Japan another year. “

How is that irrational? They did get him at a bargain rate after winning the bid, and ended up signing him for less than they would have had to pay for a comparable quality pitcher in free agency.

Now maybe they bid an unexpectedly high amount, but it’s hard to see how it was irrational.

As I said in a previous post in the live blog, I was a little disappointed that Hughes’ fastball seemed to sit around 91 mph, and his curveball didn’t look super-sharp (to my untrained eye).  Of course, this was his first start, he probably had nerves, and he’s not even 21 years old, so there’s room to improve.  And, all things considered, he certainly seemed capable of being a big league pitcher.

My question to some of the experts around here is, what are the expectations for Phil Hughes?  Are we looking at a potential frontline, dominanting, #1 ace who’ll compete for multiple Cy Youngs?  Or is he more of a Mike Mussina type, solid #1A/#2?  I’m thinking the difference between a guy who can blow fastballs by hitters the way a Clemens, Pedro, or Felix Hernandez can, and a guy who has to rely more often than not on craftiness to get his strikeouts.

Is this even a fair question?

Well, this may indeed be the year the Yanks don’t make the postseason, though it is still rather early. The other thing about getting too negative is this. Teams that are in slumps are never as bad as they seem at the time, nor are they as good as they seem when they are rolling. I watched the game last night on Ch 9 and saw a pretty listless offense. Abreu looked like he was late for an appointment at the plate. Completely lost. A-Rod had some good swings and had the wind not killed it would have left the park. Same with the double by Wells. Please no more Cairo this year. please. That said, I have to agree with Pete Abraham on one score. Cashman is at fault for investing too much faith in a return of Pavano. His determination to see Pavano yield returns gives me the feeling that he did have a lot to do with acquiring him in the first place.  This business that the Pavano deal was all Steibrenner or his Tampa cohorts is bull. Cashman isn’t a bad GM even if we finish third this year- like Boston did a year ago. Some good will come out of every year including the development and progress of some of the younger players.  It would also lend some urgency and focus to getting better as it did with the Sox. The fact is though that as much as we magnify the Sox Yankee rivalry, the rest of the AL is beginning to emerge as real threats. The Tigers, White Sox, Twins, Blue Jays and Angels all have good clubs and may emerge in the end. Boston, though at this point appears to have their house in pretty good order. You have to give Theo some credit, much as I am reluctant to do so.

“My question to some of the experts around here is, what are the expectations for Phil Hughes?”
—-
It’s very hard to say - I’ve read comparisons to Roy Oswalt, and someone who has an opinion I really trust actually compared him to Moose last night.

The comparisons would be valid if he was done developing.  But he’s not.  There’s still a possibility that he will gain MPH on his fastball.  His changeup may develop into a plus pitch.    So, you could see a John Smoltz type, eventually.  We shouldn’t even talk about Clemens, Pedro, etc..that’s not fair to anyone.  It’s probably not even fair to be talking about Smoltz or Moose at this point.

He does NOT possess the super-stuff of a Felix Hernandez…but this does not mean that there isn’t dominance in his future. 

His curveball looked fine to me; although he didn’t get many swings & misses with it, I can’t recall one curveball that a Toronto hitter hit hard.

Cashman will get the heat for not signing another starting pitcher. The thing about signing a big free agent, is that it takes pressure off the GM and puts it in the pitcher. “It´s Randy fault…”, “He was our saivior”... Now it will “Cashman is an idiot”, “he should had done this….”

Regardless of the actual talent or results.

The comp that I’d use for Hughes would be Jake Peavy. Right now, what separates them is Hughes’ changeup isn’t Peavy’s caliber, and his command isn’t as good as Peavy’s either, but that’s a tough standard to hold someone too. Hughes has very good command, and by the end of the season, I’d bet it’ll be there. The development of the changeup is what’s going to determine if Hughes is a top five pitcher (sub 3 ERA type pitcher) like Peavy, or merely a very good one, with ERAs in the mid 3s.

Peavy is the best case scenario comp, and a good demonstration that low 90s velocity with command is what you need to be an ace. Regularly hitting the mid 90s is nice, but it’s hardly necessary. Not a lot of guys regularly work in the mid to upper 90s with Hughes’ command; it’s an unreasonable standard to hold him to, especially considering you can be an ace without it.

I was at the game last night, and I watched it again after coming home, and I was very impressed. Much the same as I thought both Matsuzaka and Beckett pitched much better than their ER totals, I thought Hughes was largely a victim of some bad luck in terms of hits bunching. If you’re missing bats, not elevating the ball too much, and not giving free passes, you’re going to be successful.

Right now, I’d bet on Hughes leading the the Yankees in ERA the rest of the way.

Of course, if Cashman signed Zito for 7/105 or something, and Zito got blown out in his first 3 or 4 outings, I really don’t think everyone would be saying, “Oh, this is all on the pitcher”.  Cashman stock-piled pitching talent predicting that injuries would EVENTUALLY happen.  But having 3 of your 5 starters go on the DL, plus your first replacement-starter, all in the opening couple of weeks?  Hard to predict, even if one is Pavano.

It’s way too early to objectively analyze what Cashman has done so far.  If the Yankees end up having two or three lights-out starters by the post-seasons (pick from Wang, Pettitte, and Hughes), and Mussina being someone you can at least count on to keep you in the game, did Cashman fail?

For Matsuzaka the Yankees misread the market. That’s it. They didn’t think they would be able to sign him for 50 million or that the Red Sox (or the Mets) would bid so high.

For Zito I believe his a well below average SP. Maybe I would have signed Lilly instead of Igawa and payed the extra money from the luxury tax. I like Igawa though and I think that with a little work he can make the necesary adjustments.

Zito had a 1.53 K/BB last year. That was 9th worst in the MLB. Everybody says that Wang can’t have a good career because of his poor K/BB. Wang’s K/BB is only .07 worse than Zito’s. Zito lacks a good GB% as well with a 38.2% GB%. An average FIP is 4.50. Zito’s FIP was 4.94. That was 15th worst in the MLB. The San Fransisco Giants get this for 8 years 126 million. Even if Zito stays healthy and gets 200 IP that isn’t worth 8 years, 126 million

<q>They did get him at a bargain rate after winning the bid, and ended up signing him for less than they would have had to pay for a comparable quality pitcher in free agency.</q>

The second part is true.

We’ll have to wait a few years to see if the first part is true. Sure, he looks good now, but so did Hideki Irabu at first, you know, Japan’s Nolan Ryan.

Time will tell if $51 million PLUS his contract was a bargain. I mean, say he performs to Hideo Nomo levels, would you pay over $100 million total for that? Cause as of now, Nomo is the best Japanese pitcher the majors have seen thus far. Sure, Matsuzaka could pass him (and should) but you just never know.

It’s a bit early to be calling $100 for a still-unproven pitcher a bargain.

It’s like saying Phil Hughes would be a bargain at $100 right now. Maybe he will, but maybe he won’t. Maybe he’ll be a great pitcher, maybe he’ll be mediocre, maybe he’ll be a washout. You know as much about Hughes’ future as Matsuzaka’s. Sure, Matsuzaka has done it for years in Japan, but that’s against teams taught not to take pitches and pitching every sixth day.

Thanks for the responses, Tom and bibigon.  I know it’s still VERY early in Hughes’ development, but nonetheless, I’m trying to form expectations…

I haven’t seen enough of Peavy to make the comparison, but I’ll try to check him out sometime.  Peavy is the number 2 comp from BP for Hughes, so there you go.  Oswalt sounds appropriate, too.  Mussina.  A front of the rotation starter for sure, a very valuable commodity, but maybe not a super-stuff ace.  Yet.

“Time will tell if $51 million PLUS his contract was a bargain. I mean, say he performs to Hideo Nomo levels, would you pay over $100 million total for that? Cause as of now, Nomo is the best Japanese pitcher the majors have seen thus far. Sure, Matsuzaka could pass him (and should) but you just never know. “

Matsuzaka both has better stuff and better control than Nomo. I think comparing him to Nomo is pretty silly. Country of origin really doesn’t matter nearly as much as stuff, control and all that jazz.

Larry had a pretty good comp for Matsuzaka - David Cone.

I thought Hughes look solid last night.. he had a little trouble spotting that inside fastball under the hands of Wells and Thomas, and he had to pitch from behind and ended up giving up hits to them.  The ump didn’t help either - on those pitches or throughout the game in general.  As long as I can divorce myself from the concern over his workload and possibly injury risk, I’m ecstatic that our rotation could be Wang, Pettite, Mussina, Hughes, Pavano/Karstens/Rasner/Igawa/Clemens (in no particular order).

I thought at the time, and unfortunately it looks like I might be right, that the Yankees might have signed Ughawa as a knee jerk reaction to the Sox signing.

This is an incredibly small sample size that you’re judging him on. If Igawa is league average, he is valuable and worth what they paid for.  You can’t buy league average pitching for that price, and he could be a nice trade chip with the low salary.

We’re back on this topic again?  Sigh.

I look at it this way.  After 2006, the Sox were in dire need of another front-to-middle of the rotation starter.  The pickings were kind of crappy, unless we traded away guys that we didn’t want to let go (and maybe still kind of crappy even if we did).  Matsuzaka was available, and all he’d cost us is money.  A lot of money.

It boiled down to spending a huge pile of money and filling a need, or being frugal and leaving it unaddressed (or addressed by a “roll of the dice” signing).  Henry and Theo chose the latter, and I for one am glad they did.  In that context, is a $51M posting fee “irrational”—especially if it doesn’t prevent the team from making additional moves later?

Some will say yes, some will say no, some will say “it all depends on whether he produces” (which is a copout akin to saying “I’ll make my bet after you show me your hand”).  Me, I don’t particularly care.  I’m just glad he’s on our staff, because he’s an upgrade over what we had, and what we probably could have gotten otherwise.

Also, I do not (and will not) believe for a second that the Sox bid with any intent to “keep him in Japan another year.”  The absolute last thing the Sox front office can afford is for Japanese players and teams to view them as operating in bad faith in such a high-profile transaction (the Millar fiasco was bad enough), and they’re smart enough businessmen to realize that.

Ok, enough of that.  NY people, does it look like we’re playing tonight?

Its not raining here in the city right now.  As long as the field dries out a bit they should play.

I thought Hughes looked pretty good.  He could easily have had a line of 5IP, 2ER.  A blown call (on an admittedly VERY close play that was only close because Miguel Cairo has no arm) cost him in the 5th. 

His fastball looked a tad more hittable than one would like, but I liked his curve a lot and he’s got a respectable change.  91-94mph on the heater, upper 60s (!) on the curve, and I saw changes in the low 80s.  That type of separation is nice.

His command was not quite good enough, and he paid for it (though Frank Thomas’ RBI single in the first was just a case of a good hitter hitting a good pitch).

Finally, and perhaps just as importantly, I ENJOYED WATCHING HIM.  It was fun.  He worked pretty quickly, he threw strikes or was close to the zone on most pitches and, of course, he’s just 20.  That’s how I could watch a 4.1IP/4ER performance and not be pissed off. 

As for Igawa… I’m disappointed so far as well.  But let’s all take a deep breath and give him a little more time before we tar & feather him.

The organization overpaid for him, but made it clear they saw him as a #4-#5 starter.  Ok, he’s still not performing up to that level, but there have been flashes of ability.  Before we all decide he’s a bum, let’s see if Guidry et al. can whip him into shape such that he can meet the original (admittedly low) expectations (~4.5 ERA).

Finally, and perhaps just as importantly, I ENJOYED WATCHING HIM.

I have to admit, I rather wish that he’d made his debut over the weekend, for this very reason.  I’ve heard and read so much about him (mostly on RLYW) that I’d like to get the chance to see him pitch.  But since I don’t have Extra Innings or MLB.tv, that’ll have to wait.

I guess the main points are well-covered regarding the rationality of the Matsuzaka signing, so I’ll just add that Matsuzaka is 26, which means we’ll be judging this contract in hindsight while he’s still in his prime. And in 2012 dollars, if he’s winning at least 15 games a year, this will be a fucking steal!

I appreciate Larry’s cautious tone, but I’ve learned not to bury the Yankees in April, however tempting a prospect it is. Even if they get swept, which I’m not betting on.

“As for Igawa… I’m disappointed so far as well.  But let’s all take a deep breath and give him a little more time before we tar & feather him.”

Apparently he’s out of the rotation? WTF are they going to do with him, make him the long man? I guess that’s a role the Yanks need filled, but yeah, I’ve been incredibly disappointed so far.

I’ve got the tar simmering.

Heh.  He’s been bumped from the rotation temporarily, and is supposed to be working with Guidry on the side to fix whatever is wrong with him (hopefully there is something wrong beyond “he sucks”).  But consider that Karstens has been bad too, and if he shits the bed on Saturday, Igawa probably gets put right back into the rotation.

When it rains it pours…

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/04/27/dolans.yankees/index.html

That is one of the scariest headlines I’ve ever seen. Are they on a mission to wreck all NYC sports?

It was refreshing to see a Yankee starting pitcher who actually had hitters swinging & whiffing at pitches..It’s been awhile since seeing that….He moves right into the rotation, averages a k an inning…..., Pettite, Wang, Mussina, Hughes…# 5 who in the hell knows..Karstens, Pavano????, Clemens ???? Rasner ???...Point is that will offer 4 starters, although I still have reservations about Moose and his 87 heater…..At least the pen can get some rest, only if St. Joe gets a clue…..

Igawa…...long relief….fill the role that Mendoza did so well….Or try at least justify the dough he’s getting….

Sean Henn hit 95 mph on the stadium gun last night.  It looked like he was bringing it.  That’s encouraging.

Hey, who we playing tonight?

I hope it’s not the Red Sox - it ruins my weekends when we do, even when we win.