I understand $4M may be too much for 2010 but I want Wang back.  Incentives and a big option or whatever I don’t care.  Give him the Lieber treatment but I want him back.  I think it’s silly to give up on him after 1 injury plagued season.

I mean his peripherals were never cy young calibur, but the guy does have a career ERA around 4 and was a solid innings eater.

The yanks not wanting to take a chance at $4mil tells me that 1. the economy really isn’t what it used to be, $4mil would have been a joke to offer on such upside in the past few years, especially considering some of the other “incentive driven” contracts given to pitchers over the past few years, 2. The yankees are making this a payroll decision, perhaps to really keep under that ~$180mil or to allocate resources to another free agent/traded player new contract signing, and 3. Maybe Wang’s health doesnt look good at all, and there’s a lot more the team knows about that than we do.

I’d love to see an incentive package for him at least. Bring him back!

More than one? And the whole success without strikeout biz. But yeah, me too, hope Wang returns.

I think it’s silly to give up on him after 1 injury plagued season.

well, two seasons, but who’s counting?

Yeah his numbers were never as good as his success but they don’t need him to be an ace.  They don’t even need him to be a number two.  Hopefully one of Fuse and Chamber Ream make it so they don’t even need him as a number 3 (which he was always good enough to be).  If he comes back to where he was or even a notch below he is still more than good enough for what they need.

[4] - Well I hope no one would give up on him based on the way he pitched in 2008.

[2]  probably some of all of the above.  remember, his shoulder was always a bit of a ticking timebomb in the minors. 

i’m not sure the yankees haven’t been expecting this, which explains their hardline stance in his contract negotiations. 

that said, i agree with the overall sentiment here, it would be great to have him back on a split contract loaded with incentives.

[6] i agree with you, i like Wang and hope he comes back, but his 2008 season was really wierd before the injury.  he went through a long stretch of ineffectiveness right before he got hurt.

There are players the team never seems to love, success notwithstanding.
Wang has always been one of these.
Don’t know why.
I, too, think it would make sense to get him back (obviously, unless another team offers him 3400 million billion, which would be a bit of an overpay.

There are players the team never seems to love, success notwithstanding.  Wang has always been one of these.

Besides the contract situation, which has come up once in his career, what makes you say this?

i’d imagine b/c the team never gave him a long term deal.  which, in hindsight (and maybe in foresight from the POV of the people with more in depth medical infor), seems like a pretty smart decision.

It’s not just the money, it’s the roster spot.  He’s out of options.  He can start the year on the DL, but unless he signs a minor league contract, he has to be added to the 25-man once he’s used up 30 days of minor league rehab time.  And once added, he has to stay on the active roster, clear waivers, or get shut down.  So if he needs more minor league time than that to be ready, any team that signs him to a major league deal could be screwed.  For all the talk about teams that will jump at him, most of the jumping will probably come in the form of low base, high incentive, split contract offers.

Don’t know why.

Because his shoulder has been held together with duct tape and bailing wire for as long as he’s been in the organization.

I agree with [7]. There are too many if’s around CMW, and I don’t blame the Yankees for being reluctant to wager $4 that would be better spent. Personally, I’ve never had a great deal of confidence in Wang - which is not the same as saying I didn’t want to see him do well.

That said, I’d be happy to see him get a chance with some sort of incentive based contract. I think CMW is almost obligated to go that way to reestablish himself. The Yankees had to continue paying him on the prior contract, but he has to earn the next one.

Yeah, that was a smart business decision, and the reasons were clear at the time.  (They simultaneously gave Cano a multiyear deal.)  But I think it’s weird to say they didn’t “love” Wang.  He started Game 1 of the PS in 06 and 07, right?  He was the opening day starter once or twice, right?

Besides, everybody loves Wang.  Western civilization is predicated on that fact.

I think civilization my be predicated on that fact.

Lot of matriarchies out there.  Wang has a secondary role in many of them.

i personally prefer Tandy to Wang.

Good one.  I have to say that Wang is my all-time favorite operatic burletta.

Statements over the years, Frog, can’t recall them all.  Not just the long term contract - do we really think they knew THIS injury would happen?
And - MC, is that true?  I didn’t know!

Don’t mind me.  I’m just bitter because once a year on this board I propose a nickname for the guy: Chairman Wang. 

And no one has ever liked it.

Or even responded, I think.

I’ve always liked him. He carried the staff through some dark years despite coming out of nowhere. Remember him and Cano getting called up back in 05? That was maybe the first sign of an organizational turnaround. I’d like him back.

Perhaps because NYA already has a chairman?
I liked the Merciless nickname… until he started showing far too much mercy.

Chairman Wang didn’t come out of nowhere.  He was a huge international signing, as he had been a star for a very good Olympics team.

It was nice when Cano and Wang were called up.  If I recall, there was still some real dissonance in the organization.  The compromise was: we call up Cano, but to save face on our FA signing, we move Womack to CF.

Whitey was the Chairman of the board.  Recycling and modifying language is good.

Couple of sources have Wang as being non-tendered, so it looks like it’s official.

I’m with you guys.. I would have liked to have seen some work around. A minor league deal with a guarantee of release by a certain date if he’s not called up, and a big payday if he does get called up.  Maybe that news is coming, but I don’t see it.

Also, Wang is a 3rd year arbitration case, right? If you assume there’s a chance that he can put the injuries behind him, it’s actually a nicer deal then signing someone like Sheets or Bedard because the Yankees would have 1 more year of arbitration, instead of just losing him to free agency.

[20] The Yankees signed Wang in 200 and sent him to Staten island where he made 14 starts.  He then missed all of 2001.  For some reason, I’d always thought that he had TJS, but in fact, it was the shoulder.  He also missed two months in 2005 and the first few weeks of 2007 due to shoulder problems.

I’ve been told that shoulder injuries are generally harder to come back from than elbow injuries, and I doubt that the general prognosis for a second shoulder surgery is very promising.

I would have liked to have seen some work around. A minor league deal with a guarantee of release by a certain date if he’s not called up, and a big payday if he does get called up.  Maybe that news is coming, but I don’t see it.

The reason you don’t see it is the CBA.  The only way that a team can make that kind of deal with an arbitration-eligible player is to non-tender him first.  The weird part is that teams apparently cannot non-tender players before the deadline.  Probably to prevent roster shenanigans WRT the Rule 5 draft, although even that doesn’t make much sense because players added to the 40-man would have to clear waivers to be removed, and a waiver claim on a minor leaguer is a better deal than a Rule 5 pick, since you wouldn’t have to keep the guy on your active roster all year.

That should be 2000 in [27], not 200.

And yes, Wang was a super-two, so he does have another arb-year coming.

The Yanks are doing the right thing if they offer Wang an incentive-laden deal that starts him in the minors and rewards him for fighting his way back.  If someone else wants to pay him more, I’ll wish him success.  When he was on, Wang was one of my favorite pitchers to watch.

The reason you don’t see it is the CBA.

I didn’t mean ‘I don’t see it’ as in I’m not finding anyone reporting it - I meant ‘I’m not seeing it happen’ or ‘I don’t think it will happen.’ The organizations history with Wang has always been that they were (rightfully) worried about his shoulder, so it doesn’t seem like they would go for something like that. He looks like he’s headed for the Johnson, DeJesus and Saltalamacchia pile.

... There is ABSOLUTE ZERO chance of a payroll under $180m
... It’s not as much giving up on him as paying $4m-$5m for a partial season on a questionable shoulder. He is 30 and we have a ton of young, free arms. It’s also a depressed economy where other injured pitchers with a higher end will be available for not much more. The point about the roster spot is very appropriate.
... With all of Cashman’s direct statement’s that he is targeting pitching, when a trade for Halliday SHOULD be out of the question, and Lackey will be way overpriced, this leads me to believe Cashman is eyeing Holliday. While he will also be overpriced, if he comes into the fold, our lineup is literally set for the next 3 years. SP and Bench will be our only needs.

Jeter
Grandy
Teix
ARod
Holliday
Posada
Swisher (DH)
Cano
Melky

That’s a sick lineup, with very decent OF defense.

When Posada, Jeter, ARod or Tex DH, Melky is out and Swish is in RF.
Our weakest bat, and only one, would be Melky OR Cervelli OR Pena.
You can even put Swish in RF and DH Miranda or Montero (late in the year).
Very flexible. Better O and D then last year.
And after Holliday, we could be DONE.
Or, trade Melky (and save $3m) and use Gardy.
Mid season pickups for SP and/or DH IF necessary.

That would be a sick, sick team!

We would be one #3 SP or better from ripping off 3 or 4 WS in a row.

[31] Ahh.  Thanks.  Personally, I have no intuition one way or the other as to whether they’ll try to bring him back.  But on the right kind of deal, I guess he’d make as much sense as a Bedard or a Sheets.

There is ABSOLUTE ZERO chance of a payroll under $180m

Seeing as they’re already right around $200M when you add in the renewals and arb cases, I agree.

[33] Yeah… lower ceiling than Bedard or Sheets, but probably a lower cost, too, and then there’s just not having to deal with “Yankees buy another _____” headlines. I think for me it comes down to Wang being the only consistent, solid start for a 2-3 year stretch when things were (relatively) bad, and now that the team wins a WS and has a great future outlook, it just sucks that he won’t be able to be a part of it.

Yankees buy another… member of their pitching corps?

I don’t think it has anything to do with the economy. I think it’s about his medical prognosis for the upcoming season combined with a fixed a budget that they are unwilling to exceed. The reasons for that budget are political. That is, they don’t want to give the small market owners more ammo in their attempt to impose a more onerous luxury tax the next CBA talks.

I hope they can work out an incentivized contract with a low base.

FWIW, Jody McDonald on ESPN 1050 (whose father was the Mets’ GM year ago) said that his father said that Montero is a better catcher than a lot of people say he he is.

[34]“Seeing as they’re already right around $200M when you add in the renewals and arb cases, I agree.”

Not quite there yet.

Cots has them at $166.3, add $11.75M for Pettitte, $5.5M for Granderson, $2.5M for Melky, and ~$450G each for Hughes, Chamberlain, Gardner, Cervelli, Pena, Robertson, Aceves, Melancon, they’re at $187.2M for 21 players.

They can still bring it in under $200M, but not by much.  If they add a decent LF, Melky is almost certainly gone, IMHO.  So, they’re really a touch under $185M.

There’s no way they DH Swisher and start Melky in RF when they could just sign Matsui for 1/$5-6M and trade Melky.  Matsui’s bat is a good 20 runs better than Melky, and Melky probably isn’t more than 5 runs better than Swisher on D.  That’s a very cheap 1.5 WAR to pick up.

[38] Good point. If you believe that Matsui’s knees will hold up and he has a good year at 36 (131 OPS+ in 2009 vs a career 124 OPS+), then the gain in O is worth the loss in D and flexibility. Although last year, it looks like Mats started 110 games or less? (this is a guess based on PA). So you only get about 70% of the difference.

Matsui will cost $5-6m more then Melkdud, we lose Melkdud for the future, lesser D and flexibility for 1.5 WAR, IF Matsui stays healthy and has a decent year. Seems worth it, but not by a huge amount?

[39]
You aren’t figuring in any return for a trade of Melky.

[39], [40]

The +20 R’s better hitting is based on last years PAs.  FanGraphs has Matsui at 22.1 R above avg in 528 PA, as an offensive player (he’s been at 20 or more in every year he’s exceeded 500 PA).  Melky was +1.6, well above his career average, so the +20 is pretty conservative, I think, barring major injury to Matsui (<115 Gs) or major improvement by Melky. 

Melky has been right around +4 D in the corners, which makes sense given his avg. to slightly below avg. D in CF.  Swisher has been a +5 ish corner OF, but was a tad below average this year.  This gap could reasonably be 5 Rs gained, or zero.

The return on the Melky trade is an important consideration.  If you could get a pretty good bat who can play LF for Melky +, who doesn’t cost a ton, you have tons of flexibility on the last piece: Holliday, Damon, Matsui, Cameron, Branyan, Nick Johnson, all would work.

[38] Actually, Cot’s has them at $187M+ without the renewals and the arb guys.  All you’re doing is subtracting Igawa’s $4M (and Brackman and Miranda I guess) and adding the eight young players you mentioned.  But that’s still only 21, so you have to add at least $2M more, and if you’re scoring for luxury tax purposes, it’s the 40-man roster plus benefits.  IOW, easily another $15M+.

And this:

If they add a decent LF, Melky is almost certainly gone, IMHO.  So, they’re really a touch under $185M.

is silly, since adding a decent LF and subtracting Melky is certainly going to increase rather than decrease the payroll.

“you have tons of flexibility on the last piece: Holliday, Damon, Matsui, Cameron, Branyan, Nick Johnson, all would work.”

But because the 2011 payroll could impose even tighter restrictions, of that group, only Holliday is worth a multi-year contract. So length of contract should be determinate in pursuing any of the other players listed.

That probably rules out Damon and Nick Johnson, who would both likely insist on a multi-year deal.

[42]

OK, I got it.  Cots has 2 different spreadsheets.  One if you click the 2009 link, one if you click the 2010-2014 payroll obligations.

The difference of 166.3 + Pettitte/Granderson and 187 is Igawa, who they omit in one spreadsheet.  So, the number is more like $190M (w/Igawa).

I’m not sure how the Yankees account for Igawa, but I am sure the “$200M budget” does not include the benefits, etc..

I think it makes sense to net out Melky, b/c if they sign Holliday or Cameron, and payroll is a constraint, Melky’s a goner.  The net increase is the new guy’s 2010 # minus Melky’s.

I’ve been told that shoulder injuries are generally harder to come back from than elbow injuries, and I doubt that the general prognosis for a second shoulder surgery is very promising.

I think this is the crux of it, MC.  Even if CMW comes back, who knows what his stuff will be like.  He’s just not worth the trouble for the Yankees at this point, and it’s probably better for everyone if CMW goes to a different organization.

I liked him and will continue to do so, but it seems like time to move on.

Even if CMW comes back, who knows what his stuff will be like.  He’s just not worth the trouble for the Yankees at this point, and it’s probably better for everyone if CMW goes to a different organization.

First, we have no idea what the medical reports on Wang’s shoulder reveal. Posada had a very similar surgery, and while the physical demands on a pitcher’s shoulder are greater than that of a catcher, few (myself included) thought that Posada would recover so quickly.

Second, the decision should be made based on a cost-benefit analysis. If Wang would agree to a mL contract that converts to a ML with makable incentives if he proves to be healthy enough to contribute on the ML level, I think it would be foolish not to sign him, <u>as long as</u> the medical reports offered a positive prognosis over a reasonable timeframe.

Ted, see [113] in the previous thread.

I am sure the “$200M budget” does not include the benefits, etc.

I’m not at all sure what the payroll “budget” is or how it’s figured.  I just don’t think that it makes any sense to use the 25-man roster, since that’s not how the league figures team payrolls and I really doubt that it’s how teams do their budgeting.  Especially if you’ve got some high draft picks with major league contracts and little chance of actually making the major league roster.

[47] I answered over there, but will repost here:

Replacement Level Japanese Naked Phil Hughes Photos Weblog

Fun with math:

Wang non-tendered ($4M) + trading Melky ($3M) + Bruney traded ($2M) + the money everyone has allotted for LF and would happily give to Damon if he accepted it on a one year deal ($8M) = Matt Holliday!

Re: the issue raised earlier of the legitimacy of Hoffman-qua-“lefty masher”:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/a-look-at-jamie-hoffmanns-platoon-splits/

Mitre si Wang no????

Mitre is probably a lot cheaper than Wang. I think we are all hoping that Wang resigns with the Yankees, but lets not hold our breath.

They should just give him his 4 million. There are simply too many good Wang jokes. Things like the Wang vs Bush match up of ‘05 are simply priceless imo;
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=250430110

Kind of like the famous case
Bowers vs. Hardwick

I loved box-scores like that one from Wang.  7 IP, 81 pitches, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 15-6 gb/fb.  I’m going to miss that guy.

I doubt another team would guarantee Wang much more than the Yankees would. So unless he has some kind animus toward team the organization, I think he’ll re-sign.

Edit:  toward the organization

I really hope you’re right. Is it weird that this thing hasn’t been officially announced and it’s nearing 8 pm EST?

So unless he has some kind animus toward team the organization, I think he’ll re-sign.

I’d assume a real chance to get back to the major league is a real consideration. But I can’t imagine that has stopped any pitcher from signing with the Yankees, and it ain’t like the Yankee pitching depth is that much different from any reasonably well run team.

FYI, Posada audio on the ESPN home page.

[52] Mitre signed a minor league contract last year.  Since he spent less than half the season in the majors, he probably only earned a little more than $500K.  So, in theory, you could offer him 1/10 of what you’d have to offer Wang.  Sergio being out of options is still an issue though.

[59] Deadline is midnight.  They’ve probably got the fax machine set up to autodial it in at 11:57 so they can act like they agonized over the decision until the last minute.

“PC Loadletter?  WTF?  I thought they were going to non-tender Wang.  Oh well.”

[63]
Only humans can explain.

[61] well, what was the audio?

Hey lads. I just watched a flick called Doomsday. Fun film, little Road Warrior, 28 Days Later meets Camelot. Dumb as could be, but I laughed a lot.
One pretty hot tomato in it too. If you like action movies that kind of suck, give it a shot.

[62] Chad Jennings on LoHud think it’s ‘very strange’ that nothing’s official yet. Can we hope that they are actually going back and forth internally on this?

Vill, it’s not insider or anything.  Easier for you to listen than for me to type a transcript.  Curious statement that he’d be ready to give his job to Jesus after 2010.  Some stuff about Granderson, etc., etc.

Let me save us all a lot of time. 

Jack Cust non-tendered.  Wow, really, maybe he’d be a good, cheap DH candidate?  Well, his OPS+ has trended downward significantly over the last 3 seasons.  Smarmy remark from someone.  Yes, but he might mash at DNYS.  Offended reaction to smarmy remark.  Demand for statistical evidence.  Apology.  RLYW in-joke. 

Pass on Cust.

[69] You forgot the somehow-not-unanimously-despised-due-to-overplaying joke about someone pitching the eighth inning.

[71] You are so asking for it.

Thanks, Frog.
...but I kind of like doing it out the long way better.

[68] Oh sorry about that. Confused by what “audio” meant. Thought it was a quick to summarize soundbite. But you are making it sound like a longer interview.

Haha, though the snail pace of my internet connection probably’d challenge your transcription challenge.

[71]
Are you really threatening yourself, Frog?

[71] Dogfish gotcha.

Official:

MLBTR has added Wang to the list.

[69] was trying to figure out who was who in that time saver. Or, more specifically where I’d be. Guess [70] would be it.

[76] That’s been up for a while, but there’s no official release from the Yankees on any of the arbitration eligible players.

Posada is a pretty cool dude.

MLBTR claiming something makes it about as unofficial as can be.

[70] I don’t think Cust can pitch teh ate.  Not in New York, anyway.

Looks like it’s official, but it sounds like Cashman wants Wang back on some kind of a deal.

Eric Duncan is no longer in the Yankees system. When I started following the minors he and Phil Hughes were the no doubt top players. I think Eric Duncan was in the midst of his first year of prolonged suckiness and Phil Hughes was picking apart the low minors. It was good times.

How much would you guys pay for Wang.

You can thank me for this later.

Hey lads. I just watched a flick called Doomsday.

That’s actually a very solid flick. It’s a throwback to 80s genre mash-ups. In other words, it’s not just an action flick, it’s also a chase movie, a science fiction story, an apocalypse movie, with a bit of exploitation sprinkled in their.

In addition to otf astute 28 Days Later meets Camelot point, it is also heavily influenced by Escape From New York. In fact, anyone who digs Escape From New York really must see it.

Neil Marshall is the writer/director and he is quietly putting together a nice filmography - Dog Soldiers (a werewolf flick which I haven’t seen but have had several people recommend) and The Descent (which I think is actually one of the better horror movies of this decade). Of course, his films all mash-up genres so studios don’t know how to market them properly since they don’t fit nicely into one category and don’t fall into whatever the latest trend is, which leads to very uninspiring trailers/tv spots for his films.