I"m going to keep this thread at the top of the site and consider it a general thread for any winter meeting discussions.

You know none of us are good at following rules…

Is this the thread where we discuss IPK for Pujols straight up?  Or the one where we only post serious thoughts?

From Chad Jenning’s on the Yankees-Tigers-DBacks trade:

It now seems that every report on the three-way Granderson trade says it�s either highly unlikely or completely dead.

That trade would have depleted too many assets that would have likely been needed to get Halladay.

I agree with a collections of thoughts from the other thread…

I don�t have a problem with letting go of the players mentioned (Jackson, IPK, Coke, Dunn)

and

Watching Howard flail against lefties in the WS has me irrationally afraid of the Yankees acquiring Granderson.

But really, the thing that worries me most about the Granderson talks is that the Yankees already have 2-3 passable CF�ers.  Overpaying (or paying even market value) for the upgrade in CF doesn�t make too much sense when you have that much CF depth and LF would still be a long term issue.  And if you�re trading for Granderson to play him in LF, then that mitigates his value a good bit and doesn�t really solve their OF problem.

I don’t really care about any of the players given up in the trade, but I’m just not sold on Granderson being a solution to anything.  His lefty problems can cause him to be completely neutralized in the late innings and especially in the playoffs and with a large salary looming I’m just not sure I want him at all.  Looking at the numbers being thrown around this off-season I’d rather just go the free agancy route as a better way to spend money.  For instance, Damon or Cameron for around $10 on a shorter deal might be a safer play.

So, does this Rule 5 guy get flipped to Atlanta for Soriano, to Detroit in a Granderson package, or to Toronto in a Halladay package?

From LoHud…

Potential free agents who were offered arbitration had until midnight last night to accept. Most declined and became free agents. Relievers Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano (who�s been linked to the Yankees) were the only Type As to accept arbitration. Carl Pavano was the only Type B to accept.

So yeah.  Damon.  I really wish the Yankees weren’t so indifferent with their potential draft picks.  Not to mention the fact that other teams would have to give up picks would have helped negotiating a better deal.

His lefty problems can cause him to be completely neutralized in the late innings and especially in the playoffs and with a large salary looming I�m just not sure I want him at all.

Well, you know, you can always platoon him and pinch-hit for him in those late inning high leverage situations, thus neutralizing the other team’s LOOGY.  And his looming salaries aren’t that scary:

# 5 years/$30.25M (2008-13), plus 2014 club option

  * signed extension with Detroit 2/4/08
  * 08:$1M, 09:$3.5M, 10:$5.5M, 11:$8.25M, 12:$10M, 13:$13M club option ($2M buyout)
  * 2013 option increases to:
      o $15M if MVP (1st - 5th) in 2011 or 2012
      o $14M if All Star in 2011 or 2012
      o $13.5M if All Star selection in 2011 or 2012
  * award bonuses: $25,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove; $50,000 for Silver Slugger; $75,000 for LCS MVP; $0.1M for MVP, WS MVP

3/$26M for an excellent defender who hits RHP very well isn’t going to kill you.  It’s pretty similar to Swisher’s contract.  He had over 500 PA against righties last year and OPS’d almost .900 (very consistent with his career numbers vs RHP).  The 200 PA of abject suckitude against lefties really drag him down, but couldn’t the Yankees give most of those to TSBG*?

(* now with reverse platoon split)

Maybe their scouts are telling them that it’s a weak draft?

So yeah.  Damon.  I really wish the Yankees weren�t so indifferent with their potential draft picks.  Not to mention the fact that other teams would have to give up picks would have helped negotiating a better deal.

Except that this is exactly the thought process that backfired on the Braves with Soriano.  Now they’re going to have to trade him to get out of paying him $8M, and probably get considerably less value than a late first-rounder and a sandwich.  Of course, I’m sure part of your reasoning is that the money doesn’t matter to the Yankees in the same way it does to the Braves, but there’s got to be a breaking point eventually.

Yeah they could platoon/PH him but that does neutralize him late in games (defensively too).  And it’s not like Melky’s (.245/.315/.352/.667) or Gardner’s (.241/.310/.316/.626 SSS) numbers vs. lefties over the last 3 years are platoon worth either.

I have to admit, I spaced on his salary.  I thought the 12 and 13 were both at $13M.  It doesn’t seem that bad but an older known commodity on a similar (but shorter) deal that doesn’t require giving up talent seems smarter.

I want Granderson. The issue is the price paid.

Of course, I�m sure part of your reasoning is that the money doesn�t matter to the Yankees in the same way it does to the Braves, but there�s got to be a breaking point eventually.

Part of the problem is how strict they’re going to stick to a $200M budget.  E.g. Damon accepts b/c Boras tells him if he plays well, *next* year the market will be better (reasonable assumption).  Now Yankees only know they have Damon, likely for more than $13M - though he technically could take a paycut I doubt he would.  Add in $12M for Pettitte, and they’re pretty much tapped out.

I think it came down to, Yankees *are* worried about salary.  While having about $30M for next year doesn’t seem much of a worry, they are.  Cashman wasn’t *sure* that Damon would turn down the offer, and he knew if Damon accept that after Pettitte they were pretty much done, and he wasn’t willing to take that risk.  We’ll never know if it was the “right” call, though if he gets Damon for 1/$6M we’ll be happy.

How often are severe platoon splits curable in a player’s late 20s?
Or at least significantly corrected?  Has this been studied already?

E.g. Damon accepts b/c Boras tells him if he plays well, *next* year the market will be better (reasonable assumption).
WHY is that a reasonable assumption?  He just had a good year - next year he’ll be another year older.  And he’ll be a smaller fish in a bigger FA pond, with many more good FAs on which teams will be spending their available funds.  I don’t see a single reason that would be a reasonable assumption.

Have the Yankees shipped the PTBNL to the Padres for Gaudin?  If not, what are the chances that the Yanks flip the Rule V pick from the Nationals to the Padres?  I know they are slim, since the Yanks had no idea they’d get the #1 Rule V pick when the got Gaudin, but just a thought…

[14] Economy?

KenDavidoff Andy Pettitte’s agent Randy Hendricks: “If we can work out a deal, he’ll play. Is talking only to #Yankees.”

On an unrelated note, are the Cardinals the landing place for rejected Red Sox pitchers? Pineiro, Smoltz, Penny, ...

I expect them to sign Paul Byrd any day.

[16]
Right, of course.  And possibly true (or not).  But still… not a reasonable approach, I don’t think, given the circumstances.

Damon did say he wanted to play for the Yankees, so Cashman might think Damon would accept out of hand, even with Boras as his agent.

We won’t find out (unless Damon signs a big contract, in which case I would be wrong) but I think arbitration + a contract next year would have a higher expected value than a contract this year, even after factoring in decline.

[14] Economy?

and if his defense was partly bad luck he could look better next year.

[16] - I’m with Pete.  Damon had a great year, would be a year older when trying to top it in 2010, and next year should be a much stronger free agent class. Yes the economy MAY be a somewhat better next year but enough to make up for all of that?

Pretty sure the Yanks sent the Padres $100k for Gaudin.

Hey SG - I’m really curious about how AJax-for-Granderson plays. Is there any way you can please do a 3 year projection comparison on the guys?

[19] I think it is a reasonable assumption, b/c of the economy.  I’m not worried how Damon is going to do (and I did put in the qualifier “if he plays well”), b/c that is independent of the market in general.  Damon also likely believes (at least in part) some of the stuff Boras is spouting about him, which would make it very probable he’d believe any lower offers he’s getting now are a result of the economy, and he’ll play just as well next year as he did this year.

I also think it is a reasonable assumpion that the market will be worse.  Too many unknowns; how quickly will the economy rebound?  We could be growing strongly by the end of 2010, or plodding along.  Seems recently that older corner outfielders aren’t valued as highly.  Is that b/c of economic reasons, or b/c of an *actual* shift in the way front offices value players?  I think you can make a reasonable assumption that the economy will turn around quickly (several experts seem to think so), and also reasonable that front-offices just need the green-light from owners to overspend on veterans.  You can also make reasonable assumptions the other way.

Also, for next year being a stronger FA class, looking specifically at corner OF…this year has Bay and Holliday.  Next year has Crawford, and after that the next best is Dejesus.  Unless you plan on moving Pujols to LF (possible).  But a lot of the guys who you may think make the FA class strong next year, many people don’t believe will reach FA (Pujols and Mauer in particular).

Mike K., that may be true.  But if any appreciable number of them do, then I don’t think you can look strictly position-by-position.  Teams usually have multiple needs, and the more they spend in general, the less they probably have available for anything else.

Well, you know, you can always platoon him and pinch-hit for him in those late inning high leverage situations, thus neutralizing the other team�s LOOGY

That’s a decent plan, if the Yankees had anyone on their potential bench next year to PH for Granderson. But it looks to me like their bench will be Cervelli, Pena, and Gardner.

I am not sure who they would platoon him with. Gardner? Melky? Neither one seem to be particularly great against LHP either. Not to mention, it means the OF against LH SP is Melky/Gardner/Swisher. They can have that OF alignment without giving up IPK and AJax.

So, the question really is how much is Granderson’s 450 PA against RHP and defense worth in comparison to Gardner/Melky getting those PA?

Since I was the only person who brought it up, Bruney made 1.25 mil last year. Assuming he stayed on the Yankees, what that be - 2.5 mil? more? less?

That seems to bode well for Melancon or Robertson getting more PT, eh. Or IPK in teh ate?

Some things about the rumored Granderson deal:

1)  Isn’t it possible that Granderson’s contract is reasonable enough to leave room to still sign Damon and Matsui (or two similar players) to short-term deals?  Granderson has flaws, but as people have pointed out here, he’s still an excellent value going forward, and he’d lock down centerfield for the next 5 years or so.  With Granderson in hand, not only can AJax be traded, but one of Melky or TGBG could be flipped in a deal as well to fill out LF, DH, SP, bullpen, etc.

2)  It’s nice to see that AJax and IPK are valued pretty highly by other GM’s.  It’s funny, but they seem to be growing in value to the people on this site, as well.  I wonder if we’re starting to overvalue them, though.  I mean, we’re talking about bringing in Granderson without touching Joba, Hughes, or Montero.

3)  Am I missing something about Max Scherzer?  Why the hell would Arizona trade him for Edwin Jackson and IPK?  Why the hell would they trade him for anybody?  Why isn’t every team in baseball, including the Yankees, trying to get him?

4)  Having said all that, I might still pass on the currently rumored deal, based largely on point #2.  If GM’s are high on AJax and IPK, maybe there’s a better deal to be had out there.

So, the question really is how much is Granderson�s 450 PA against RHP and defense worth in comparison to Gardner/Melky getting those PA?

Let’s not forget that Cameron could probably be had for similar money and a shorter deal and no talent.

[29]

1) Probably Matsui because I think he would be more likely to take less.

2) IPK’s FB was topping out at 93 at the AFL. I think his value is likely to go up. There is a salary dump quality to moving Granderson, which is why the price seems to be going down.

SAS - your point 1 is very close to something I was about to type up.  Granderson as an upgrade for CF is nice, but the team still needs a LFer and DH, IMO.  I don’t think a Melky/Gardner-Granderson-Swisher OF is enough, and I want no part of a DH “rotation.”

Feinsand makes it appear as if the trade was killed largely for reasons very like those advanced here - and suggests that the demands from NYA may be coming down:

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/yankees/2009/12/winter-meetings-day-2.html

In today’s chat with Neyer:

So many moving parts, I’m struggling to figure out who “wins” this one (I know, I know ... they’re all winners). I do think that in three years, Austin Jackson will be a better player than Granderson. Does that matter to the Yankees, though?

I’m kinda ambivalent on Granderson. I really like his game, but at the cost of our minor league guys, passable options in house, and him not being quite the difference maker, I can take a wait and see approach. Great if we get him (if not too costly trade wise) and I’m okay if it doesn’t happen.

Is it the Yankee centric sources or Yankee (anti)bias or East coast bias that it’s mainly the Yankee prospects that are named, while usually the Detroit or Arizona prospects are “minor leaguers”?

I don’t want to give up Kennedy in the deal.

I don’t like the deal at all

FIRST, we non-insiders never got any help on this:

Love Gammons. Here he says that comparing Pedroia and Eckstein isn�t fair (which is true). He thinks a more apt comparison is Pujols.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4720659&name=gammons_peter

SECOND, how does THIS:

Melky last year: .336/.416
Granderson: .327/.453

and THIS:
wOBAs last year:
CG: 0.340
TSBG: 0.337
MC: 0.331
jibe with THIS:
Melky was (according to fangraphs) a 1.6 WAR player last year, for a value of $7.2M. He made $1.65M. So, he was a positive $5.55M.
Next season he project at 1.5 WAR for $6.8M in value. He will make let�s say $3M next season, so still a positive value of $3.8M.
Granderson was a 3.4 WAR for a value of $15.2M. He made $3.5M. So, he was a positive value of $11.7M.
Next season he projects at 4.8 WAR for a value of $21.8M. He makes $5.5M. So, he would be a positive value of $15.3M.
???????

Giving up your best SP prospect and your best OF prospect for a guy who doesn’t compare to Matt Holliday? Don’t like the deal at all.

If this deal goes through it seems like a major win for the Tigers. They get Scherzer who is very cheap and pretty good and AJax.

If we land Granderson is to play CF, so we still going to have a hole in LF, because we can’t afford to play Melky everyday at LF.

I do think that in three years, Austin Jackson will be a better player than Granderson. Does that matter to the Yankees, though?

It probably should when there are available options to be placeholders in the OF until he is ready (Damon or Cameron in LF and Melkner in CF).

[39] I think fangraphs really likes Granderson’s defense and baserunning. Or they are putting too much weight on his fantastic 2007 season. Or they believe all LHP will be extinct prior to next season.

Even though I posted those projections, I actually don’t think Granderson in 2010 is 3 times the player Melky would be. He is better, significantly so against RHP, but the whole having to pull him from every time he MIGHT face a LHP is a HUGE negative. One that isn’t fully demonstrated in WAR or wOBA.

jibe

Playing time.  Granderson had 700PAs.  Melky had 540PAs of lower wOBA.  I think the fan projection in fangraphs is being generous too.

[44, 45]
Thanks!

Am I missing something about Max Scherzer?

He has already had shoulder problems - which are usually indicative of more shoulder problems to come.
If the D-Backs think his mechanics are causing his injuries then they are probably discounting him based on the probability (whatever it is) that he gets injured again.
He’s kind of a poor man’s Ben Sheets in my head.

If we land Granderson is to play CF, so we still going to have a hole in LF, because we can�t afford to play Melky everyday at LF.

And they still need to find a RHH who can hit LHP to sit on the bench in case Granderson comes up in a high leverage situation. Or they have to hope Gardner or Melky suddenly become lefty-killers.

So, trading for CG means still needing to acquire one or two more players to have the OF complete. Meanwhile, just spending money on Holliday, Damon, or Cameron means the OF is complete since Melkner can handle CF for another year until AJax is ready.

Ken_Rosenthal Revised 3-way prop - Tigers get 2 players from Yankees instead of 3. One of lefties likely out.

nyp_joelsherman Ben Sheets rep, Casey Close, to meet with #Mets, #Yankees among others

This is fun.  It’s almost as if baseball-related things were happening!

ed price #Diamondbacks and #Tigers waiting on #Yankees to sign off on 3-way deal. Answer expected by 2 pm Eastern

Apparently, the deal will be done or dead in 40 minutes or so.

Not to mention, it means the OF against LH SP is Melky/Gardner/Swisher. They can have that OF alignment without giving up IPK and AJax.

So, the question really is how much is Granderson�s 450 PA against RHP and defense worth in comparison to Gardner/Melky getting those PA?

Yeah, I was just pointing out that Granderson is a pretty decent player despite his platoon issues.  I don’t want to give up that much for him.  It would only be a plausible trade from the NYY POV if the minor leaguers coming back potentially match Jackson and Kennedy while just being a year or two further away.

[39] OBP, SLG and wOBA are rate stats; WAR is a counting stat.  Granderson had almost as much PT as Cabrera and Gardner combined (710 PA vs 824).

Actually, I’ve gone from slightly liking this to dreading it.  But we might not know the whole thing - there could be money in the deal, or the prospects could be the snakes’ 2 top prospects…

And they still need to find a RHH who can hit LHP to sit on the bench in case Granderson comes up in a high leverage situation.

Unless he can improve against LH pitching the way O’Neill did at a similar age after he was traded.

Is it possible that Cash looked at Pitch F/x or something like that (which I haven’t seen myself) and saw that, given the dimensions of NYS, his offense vs. LHP would look better there?
I’m grasping at straws, I know…

Well, I assume the Yankees will break out the Kevin Long prayersticks if they end up trading for Granderson.

the whole having to pull him from every time he MIGHT face a LHP is a HUGE negative

But you don’t.  You pull him if you’re trailing late and it’s not a bunt situation.  You put him in to PR or play D late in games that he doesn’t start.  If you get rid of half of those PA vs LHP, you’re still talking about a guy who gets over 600 PA in a season.

[56] I think scouting has as much to do with projecting Granderson’s future as stats.

[47] If Scherzer gives any team what Sheets gave the Brewers before he completely broke down, it’s worth Granderson + Edwin.

Sheets first 8 seasons - 1428 IP, 1.2 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 115 ERA+
Sheets 2002-2004 - 674 IP, 1.2 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 114 ERA+

I do think that in three years, Austin Jackson will be a better player than Granderson

Neyer believes in AJax more than I do…

This trade seems really 2-sided to me, unfortunately its a 3 way trade. Arizona is getting 2 ML starters, Detroit is getting a Major League starter + an arguably ML ready CF. Nevermind the relievers the Yankees are giving up, and they are essentially getting a decent to good CF back with a couple of prospects from a system that isn’t all that great. I am colored by not being a huge Granderson fan, but I really don’t like this deal.

[61]
Or he’s heard about the scheduled operation to amputate Granderson’s right leg.

So… which (available) players are good options to platoon w/Granderson against LHP?

What does the TS in TSBG mean?

[64] They aren’t going to platoon Granderson.

or the prospects could be the snakes� 2 top prospects

Doubtful.

If you get rid of half of those PA vs LHP, you�re still talking about a guy who gets over 600 PA in a season.

And 150 of those are essentially automatic outs because he is facing a LHP in low to middle leverage situations.

Kevin Long prayersticks

I thought we threw those away after Cano became the worst hitter with RISP in baseball history last season?

nyp_joelsherman Med records being exchanged on Granderson deal. Yanks working thru final matters

[65] The Speedy

[64] Brett Gardner?

Onley says this deal is close. Fucking Cashman, hated this trade

So� which (available) players are good options to platoon w/Granderson against LHP?

Matt Holliday.

But now we can add Granderson and whatever crappy snakes prospects they get to the list of “players we got instead of Johan Santana” list!

Swisher, Hughes, CC, Granderson, crappy snakes prospect A, crappy snakes prospect B.

S*ck it, Bill Smith!

(Still hate this trade)

Tweeter in the hands of <strike>rumor mongers</strike> baseball writers? Deadly combination!

If Scherzer gives any team what Sheets gave the Brewers before he completely broke down, it�s worth Granderson + Edwin.

Well sure, the issue is when he’ll breakdown.  If its 8 years you win.  If its 1 year you lose.  Odds are its probably somewhere in the middle.

I thought we threw those away after Cano became the worst hitter with RISP in baseball history last season?

I thought we brought them back when neither Cano nor Melky was the worst hitter in baseball last season.

And 150 of those are essentially automatic outs because he is facing a LHP in low to middle leverage situations.

Granderson played 160 games last season and had 710 PA.  He played 96% of his team’s defensive innings in CF.  And with all that, he had only 199 PA vs LHP in 2009.  He would not get anything close to 150 PA vs LHP on a team that was semi-platooning him.

[70, 72]  I’m not going to hate it until I know what it is.

They aren�t going to platoon Granderson

Why not?

SI_JonHeyman
 
yanks to get granderson, e. jackson, i. kennedy to dbacks, scherzer, schlereth, a. jax, coke to tigers.

This deal is getting worse if the Yankees aren’t getting any prospects back.

[77] The investment is too high, imo, and they wouldn’t be making the trade if they thought that they couldn’t at least improve his ability to hit LHP. They could sit him v. very tough lefties though.

[78]
Is that reported as done?

[79] Agreed.

AJ, IPK and Coke for Granderson… meh.  I like Granderson just fine, but that does seem a little steep.

Also, for the sake of Brett Gardner, I demand the AL institute a Designated Fielder/baserunner rule.

If Gardner is platooning Granderson against LH pitching, I think we are punting a position. 65 PAs of .781 OPS is likely a humongous fluke, fueled by a .356 BABiP.

[81] No, it’s that crazy twitter thing that sam referenced.

nyp_joelsherman
 
#Arizona also says Yankees not under 2 pm deadline to ok deal

[79] I suspect they’re still getting prospects back, but you have to remember that the D-backs only have like two minor leaguers worth mentioning by name, and they certainly won’t be in the deal.

[81]  No it’s not reported as done.

Unless you believe Heyman:

SI_JonHeyman
 
teams in agreement on trade. assuming medicals check out, it’s a go.

I�m not going to hate it until I know what it is.

If it is what we think it is, I will hate it until I find out it isn’t.

They could sit him v. very tough lefties though.

Doesn’t that defeat the purpose of trading for him? They still need to sign another OF. They could just sign Damon or Cameron and not give up IPK/AJax/Coke.

[87] I wouldn’t make the deal if what is being reported is accurate.

I agree that Gardner is not the platoon guy (nor is Melky).  They’d need to bring in someone else, and I’m not sure who.

Or, as has been suggested, not platoon him at all and wishcast a major improvement (which, clearly, I doubt).  Hrrrmph.

you have to remember that the D-backs only have like two minor leaguers worth mentioning by name, and they certainly won�t be in the deal.

Another reason to hate the deal.

[86]  I’m not believing or disbelieving anybody, just saying that it’s not official.

If it is what we think it is, I will hate it until I find out it isn�t.

Why?  It’s not like you’re going to miss the chance to hate it after you know what it is for sure.

Jackson, Kennedy, and Coke for just Granderson? Not a fan, as I’ve expressed. Will CG play CF or LF? Is he better than Melky/Damon?

Nady would be a great platoon if he’s healthy.

[91] Why not hate it and then be pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be OK? Then you make sure you get your hate in.

I’m going with Clay’s [93]

I agree that Gardner is not the platoon guy (nor is Melky).  They�d need to bring in someone else, and I�m not sure who.

They could sign Holliday, Cameron, or Damon for LF. Oh wait, what’s that you say? They could have just signed a LF, let Melkner handle CF for one more season, and hoped AJax was ready by 2011? That’s crazy talk. Why hold on to your top pitching prospect, top OF prospect, and a replacement level LOOGY (who have a combined 8 “free” seasons remaining) when you can get a CF who can’t hit LHP?

Or, as has been suggested, not platoon him at all and wishcast a major improvement (which, clearly, I doubt).

I would have rather held onto IPK/AJax/Coke and wishcast Melky becoming 75 % of Bernie, and Gardner becoming a 3 WAR CF next season.

[93]—Now THIS is a New York fan.

MAYBE THEY’RE NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN AJAX AFTER LAST YEAR.
Could that be it?
And wishcasting CG hitting lefties seems far, far closer to our reality than Melky becoming even 75% of Bernie Williams.

[93] And I gots to get my hate in.

I’m at the point where I’m confident that the FO has had these same arguments, and either is way higher on Granderson or way lower on the prospects or both.

Hmm.  A scenario:

Granderson trade goes through.
Sign Cameron.
Trade Melky (for what I don’t know).
Sign Nady.
Sign one of Matsui/Thome/Johnson as primary DH.

Cameron plays CF, Granderson plays LF vs RHP, Nady against LHP.  Nady can do some DHing as well.

It wouldn’t have been my “plan A” but it could work…