If it was me, I’d rather have Matsui at one year and $6.5M than Damon at whatever he ends up getting, even if Matsui can’t play the field.

Agreed.  As I said in the last thread, the Yankees already have 5 OF that can play better defense than Damon.  Is it really that important to sign a DH that can double as the 6th best defensive OFer on your team?  Roster flexibility is nice but that is just overkill.

If they are interested in a LFer then maybe they should get someone who can play LF better without much (if any) downgrade in offense in Cameron.

I just don’t get why they are so focused on Damon that they would let guys like these go off the board at the prices they wanted.

I will not be happy if and when Damon is re-signed. If it’s for more than one year, I will be pissed.

Thanks, btw.

I just hope the Yankees can stay in third place in the division.

Wow, Lackey AND Cameron to add to their other aces?

Ace ace ace ace ace ace ace.

How many aces is that?

A lot.

Moving this here…

Was Cameron really comparable to Holliday? Cameron is 7 years older and has been suspended for PED use in the past. I know he is an alternative in LF to Holliday, but is 2 years for a 37 year old really a better idea than 6 years for a 30 year old?

No, he is not as good in a straight comparison.  But he likely give you 2/3 of the WAR for 2/5 of the price and he is available for a contract 1/3 on the length.  I take that.

I can’t believe they wouldn’t bring him back on 1 year/$6.5M. Especially considering how up-in-the-air the LF/DH situtation is right now. The budget ceiling might be a hard one…but that might push Holliday out of the equation too…

[6] - Exactly.  I think either the budget is real and they only have the money for one more player or the budget is complete BS as Holliday is the real LF option.

via MLB Trade Rumors:

The Cardinals have offered Matt Holliday a deal which would pay him $16MM [sic] per year for at least eight seasons, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

I am sad to see Matsui go, but the Yanks know that Jorge can only realistically catch 100 games at most next season - which leaves him at DH for 45-50 games.  That, more than roster flexibility, is the crux of the issue.  Jeter and A-Rod will probably account for another 30 games or so at DH.  In that sense, there was no reason to sign Matsui for 80 games.

I wonder if the Yanks now offer a deal to Nick Johnson to be the DH.  He would replace Matsui’s production quite nicely and if largely kept from the field, he may even stay healthy.

I think either the budget is real and they only have the money for one more player or the budget is complete BS as Holliday is the real LF option.

Right.  I think the budget is mostly BS, frankly.  If the budget were a true issue, they would have jumped at the opportunity to sign Matsui for 1/$6.5.  There must be a bigger plan in place.  I’m guessing they’ve got their eyes on Holliday and maybe even Bay for LF (please let it be Holliday).  Then, I think they could still sign Damon to DH, but at their price.  If a market never develops for Damon, maybe they snag him for less than the rumored 2/$19M.  If Damon won’t lower his price, they go looking for the best bargain amongst Nick Johnson, Delgado, Thome, Branyan, etc.  And I bet they’re still in on Ben Sheets, Duchscherer, Escobar, etc.

For what it’s worth, Nick Johnson’s career OPS+ is 125.  Matsui’s is 124.

The Cardinals have offered Matt Holliday a deal which would pay him $16MM [sic] per year for at least eight seasons, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Hmm.  If true, that’s an awful lot of years of Matt Holliday.  Seems a little much.  Thing to do is probably to pass and wish the Cards and Holliday luck on this one.  Although the AAV is pretty fair.

I think the budget is real (for example I think there is a < 0 chance that they will sign Damon and Holliday and a SP), but I also think that there is a certain amount of elasticity factored in to account for market fluctuations.

“For what it’s worth, Nick Johnson’s career OPS+ is 125.  Matsui’s is 124.”

On the one hand Matsui started in the majors in his peak years, on the other I guess Johnson’s recurrent injuries can’t have helped, but it’s an interesting comparison.

Big day for news, boys. My thoughts…

1) Ceteris parabis, would you rather have M. Holliday in 2010 or C. Lee in 2011?
2) Curse counter definitely needs to change to H. Matsui or K. Hudson. Not C.M. Wang because he didn’t play as much for the team last year as those two.

No, he is not as good in a straight comparison.  But he likely give you 2/3 of the WAR for 2/5 of the price and he is available for a contract 1/3 on the length.  I take that.

But Cameron is a MUCH greater risk to not produce the WAR you expect from him. That has to be accounted for.

For what it’s worth, Nick Johnson’s career OPS+ is 125.  Matsui’s is 124.

There is the whole problem that OPS accounts for OBP and SLG equally when OBP is more important. So, OPS and OPS+ are nice for quick comparisons, but shouldn’t something like wOBA be used for a better “who is the better hitter” type conversation?

By Cameron being a MUCH greater risk to not produce his expected WAR, I meant he is more likely to have a “fall of the cliff” season, fail a PED test, or run head-first into Carlos Beltran.

Ceteris parabis, would you rather have M. Holliday in 2010 or C. Lee in 2011?

Both.

I had class, just got back. How did the Halladay/Lee trade get so complicated? Great fwimduckle!

I vote for the Curse of Kate Hudson, because if A-Rod doesn’t have a “super clutch” season, you know the media will mention her a lot.

But Cameron is a MUCH greater risk to not produce the WAR you expect from him. That has to be accounted for.

It is.  It’s taken to account in the years of the deal, the AAV/win of the deal.  The increased risk is why it looks so much better form those points of view.  But the downside risk is limited to 2 years and it won’t handcuff you to make a big move in the near future. 

Also, let’s be honest, do the Yankees really need a Holliday like player?  SG could speak to this better than I can but with Pythagorean wins there is diminishing value of returns on extra offense.  The value of the 20 or so run difference from Holliday to Cameron means less to the Yankees than any other team.  It’s an inefficient way to try and increase the win total.  Taking into account the marginal value of extra offensive runs and Cameron’s slight edge in the more valuable runs saved, it’s would be interesting to see how many wins the extra $10M or so would bring back.  Could that same $10M be spent more effectively elsewhere?  Also, how much the extra x number of wins would increase the Yankees chances of making the playoffs and then winning it all once they get there.  Are they locking up their payroll flexibility for a long time for a good reason?

More from MLB Trade Rumors:

Jason Bay Rumors: Tuesday
By Zach Links [December 15, 2009 at 12:44am CST]

The Yankees have reached out to Jason Bay’s representatives, a source tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.  While the Mets, Angels, and Mariners are said to be the frontrunners for his services, the article says that the Bombers are “lurking in the weeds.”

Silverman stresses that the Yanks are not believed to have made an offer at this point and their level of interest is currently unclear.

Also, while it appears unlikely that there is a place for Bay in Boston, it should be noted that the club has yet to inform him that he is no longer in their plans.

As for the Yankees, do you think they’re legitimately interested in Bay or just doing their due diligence?

By the by, giving Holliday more years for less money is a clever approach by the Cardinals. I think the chances are that it will work - which is annoying, because getting Holliday would make the Yankees a better team next season.

Like many, I am enamored with Nick Johnson, so I sure wouldn’t mind him coming back to the fold!

Too bad.  The weird part about Matsui’s leaving was that my first thought was about the Knicks: they’ll never win during my lifetime when it really, really matters.  Then I thought about Don Mattingly.  Then I thought about the Yankees: they can win a million more championships.  I’ll watch every playoff game.  But they didn’t win in 1995.  And I’ll never care 1/10 as much as I did in 1996.  The larger part of that is probably growing up.  The other part is the unavoidable nature of rooting for players in my age bracket who treat the game like a law firm.  Not that anyone in his/her right mind wouldn’t do the same thing.  Not that the money itself is objectionable or wrong.

Question:  Has the whole baseball world simply decided Vlad is not an option?  I haven’t heard a peep about him.  I’ve never been a fan, and I know nothing about his health, and I know that he was mediocre in 2009.  But he was excellent in 2008 and before that he was Vlad.

Also, let’s be honest, do the Yankees really need a Holliday like player?

If everyone in the lineup stays healthy, no probably not. But they do have a 36 year old SS, 34 year old 3B, and 39 year old catcher as 3 of their 4 best offensive players. So, I like to think of Holliday as insurance in case one of those guys (or someone else) misses significant time and is replaced by an all-glove/no-bat type. Not to mention, a little offensive overkill wouldn’t be the worst thing to help out a starting rotation with Joba, Hughes, 38 year old Andy Pettitte, and Dr. AJ & Mr. Burnett. They could bludgeon when the pitching wasn’t working.

Has the whole baseball world simply decided Vlad is not an option?

If the price is low enough, he would be worth the risk on a one year contract to DH and be put in the “break glass in case of emergency” box for the OF. He can’t seem to stay healthy, but LAAscscscia kept playing him in the OF for some reason. Maybe he stays healthy as a DH for 100 or so games?

And I forgot to mention the Yankees need to acquire as much offense as possible to overcome that Lackey signing. That puts them at something like 14 aces.

If, as Ken Davidoff has reported, Holliday’s first choice is to play for the Yankees, it might make sense for him (or his agent) to ask them if they would pay a little more in AAV over less years. Is securing more money for your grandchildren really worth forfeiting the chance to position yourself to be introduced at OTD games as a decrepit old man?

I agree: Curse of Ms. Hudson.

it’s the curse of chip caray: the scorned, yankee-hating, ex-tbs postseason announcer.

Doesn’t Holliday come with some real risk? After his rather unimpressive A’s stint? I mean, he’s not a classic pull hitter so NYS would present some give-and-take, but as with a lot of ex-Rockies you have to be a tad nervous about investing 6/100 (or whatever) in the guy, no?

[31] his rather unimpressive A’s stint was only unimpressive for him. He was still pretty damn good.

[22] Bay as a DH would be OK, but he’ll cost way too much. Pass.

[25] Living in So. Cal for six years, I can say that Vlad was absolutely the most entertaining player I watched at the ballpark. Consistently riveting. Except that one playoff game Jose Lima pitched well. And then Manny at the tail end.

Also [24] is brilliant.

[32 re: 22] it’s the years. He’d be perfect for this supposed Damonic DH/LF role this year and next. Another trader!

[22] I cannot believe the guy’s name is actually Zach Links.

[31] His “bad” stint with the A’s was: .286/.378/.454/.831 in 400 PA. His numbers look to be dragged down by a tremendously slow start .240/.288/.360/.648 in March and April. And that .831 was in a pitcher’s park while adjusting to an entirely new league.

For the season he had a .313/.394/.514/.908

His career OPS is .933, so a full season spread across two pitchers’ park didn’t seem to slow him down too much. Sure, Coors boosts offensive performance, but Holliday isn’t completely a product of Coors.

Having said that, (and acknowledging how I have “Holliday Fever”) I still wouldn’t want them doing 8 years $128M, if that Cards offer does exist and the Yankees wouldn’t get a Beltran-esque last minute discount offer.

I guess the worst case scenario is the Yankees sign one of the remaining bats to DH, Cashman (lantern) announces “Melky is our LF”, then they wait for either Damon’s price to drop back to reality (seriously, where are these magical 3 or 4 years offer coming from for a merman LF?) or a trade to becomes available.

[35] He is the brother of the beef jerky guy.

(seriously, where are these magical 3 or 4 years offer coming from for a merman LF?)

Atlantis Fishmongers? They might be willing to overpay a little to get someone with a little name value since they have trouble getting people in the stands. Plus, over on RLFMW they’re wishcasting an “underwater boost.”

RE: Matsui

Due to the fact that Cash basically avoided him thus far during the off season, either:
a.  He assumed he’d be around at an Abreu discount in January.
b.  He claimed to be focusing on Johnny Damon, but in reality he just didn’t want Matsui back and that was the nice way of saying no.
3.  He severely misread the market and is going to overpay Johnny Damon to “play” left.

I am inclined to think it is b., but it is difficult to tell at this stage.  There is no way Cash is just sitting around while huge deals are going down.  He’s gotta be doing *something* right?  There are holes to fill, and it seems as if he wasn’t really involved in Lackey or Cameron.  Unless they both dreamed of playing in Fenway as young children.  Otherwise, it would make sense to call the Yankees, no?

Cash either has been on the phone the past week repeatedly shouting, “TWO YEARS!” at Boras. Followed by Boras shouting back, “FOUR YEARS!” Or Cashman wasn’t interested in those players and has something else up his sleeve.

For comedy sake, I hope it was the former, for our sake I hope it was the latter.

[37] Take a bow good sir.

There are holes to fill, and it seems as if he wasn’t really involved in Lackey or Cameron.

I really don’t know how big those holes are.  Really to match last year’s team - you know, the one with the best record and that won the World Series - in talent, they’re just short a DH.  And even then, I think they make some of that up with the (expected) improvement of some younger players - Melky, Gardner, Cervelli, Pena, and Cano.  This team *as is* will compete for a WS next year.  Sure adding some depth is nice to guard against injuries or an older player falling off a cliff.  But this is already a very, very good team.

Now, I’d still be very happy if they were to get Holliday.  But I don’t think Cashman is willing to spend millions of dollars for minimal upgrades.  Or b/c he feels he needs to compete w/ Boston for headlines.  If a deal makes sense he will do it.

The best case scenario at this point since Cameron has already signed would be Holliday signing with the Mets and the market for Bay just dissolving.  Bay as DH for the money Damon wants and a year less would be a nice pickup.  I acknowledge the odds are probably still pretty low.

If StL really has a 8/128 offer out there, the Yanks should counter with something like 6/108 with 2 vesting options at $20M p.a., and an opt out after say 3-4 years, if Holliday wants one.

You have to think Holliday is pretty confdent he can make $10M p.a. in those last two seasons.

Sorry to see Hideki go, but I understand it.  I’m on the Nick Johnson for DH bandwagon.

Bummer if Boston signs Cameron, because a) he would’ve been an interesting option for the Yankees; and b) that gives Damon more leverage.

Bay: do not want.

Holliday: want, but 8 years?  That’s nutty.

[40] I’m not sure that Melky, Gardner, Cervelli, or Pena will improve all that much, if only because of a lack of playing time, but I agree about Cano, and the Yankees should be able to get a full healthy season from A-Rod. The reason I would like to see them add another significant bat is the possible regression and/or decline of Jeter and Posada’s production.

[43] I think the Bay “rumors” are designed to reduce Damon’s leverage.

Bay: do not want.

Bay as a LF I do not want.

Bay as a DH I want.

However, Bay as a DH for 4/$60M I do not want.  As Zorak says (types?), if you can now get Bay at a discount - just throwing it out there but 3/30? - it may be a smart buy.  It looks like as a DH he should be a solid 3-4 WAR player, at least for a couple of years.  Technically speaking, he’s probably “worth” 4/$60 as a DH, but I don’t think the Yankees need to spend that much on a DH.  Also, as poor as he may be in LF, he’s still an option if by injury or ineffectiveness Yankees need to upgrade their offense and can find a DH but can’t find a LF.

[44] For playing time, one of two things.  Either all the starters will be healthy and effective all year which means it doesn’t matter how well the backups do.  Or one (or more) of the starters will get hurt/fatigued so that the backups will get playing time.  Plus, as at stands now, between Melky and Gardner they’ll get somewhere close to 800PA, I think. 

I’m not thinking they will improve much.  Maybe 1-2 WAR between them.  My point is after the Granderson trade + ARod being healthier, offensive+defense, they are already very close to last year.  I think the (small) gap can be made up with expected improvement.

And again I’m not against them adding a signficant bat, but that’s the key - significant.  Holliday and Bay fit that mold, as do a few players who “may” be available for trade.  There seems to be some angst about Cameron and Matsui; I don’t think those are significant players, and there’s just as much (if not more) concern about their offense falling off a cliff.

[42] - If Holliday is willing to do that (and he may) you’d have to think the Mets would go from their 5 year $16 per year offer to Bay and switch to Holliday as well.  I think Bay takes the Mets (or a similar offer from Seattle) soon and Holliday will see his market at much higher than that deal. 

Hopefully Bay accepts, the Yankees (with an offer like you suggested) and Cards hold where they are and he picks the Yankees but that is a big heap of wishcasting right there.

Bay as a DH (who can at least fake a corner OF spot if needed), paid like a DH, sure, fine.  I just don’t think that’s happening.

[49] I agree it’s not likely.  Just staking my ground so to speak, so I don’t have to contradict myself later

Really to match last year’s team - you know, the one with the best record and that won the World Series - in talent, they’re just short a DH

Guys I expect to have lesser seasons:

Jeter
Posada
Pettitte
Mo?

Guys I expect to have better seasons:

ARod (full year)
Joba
Hughes (as a starter)
CF (Granderson > Brett Melkner)

Guys I expect to do about the same:

Tex
Cano (don’t you dare haul off and pull a 2008 on me, Robbie)
Swisher
Brett Melkner
CC
Burnett
bullpen (I’m sure some guys will be up, others down, just like last year)
bench guys (actually I think Cervelli > Molina, but that’s awfully minor unless Posada gets hurt and I don’t care to stare into that particular abyss this morning).

For what it’s worth, Nick Johnson’s career OPS+ is 125.  Matsui’s is 124.

There is the whole problem that OPS accounts for OBP and SLG equally when OBP is more important. So, OPS and OPS+ are nice for quick comparisons, but shouldn’t something like wOBA be used for a better “who is the better hitter” type conversation?

Nick (was) would be a nice fit, nice & patient, making pitchers work.  It’s a great idea to have him come back to NY.

Anyone else think a young Nick Johnson, right after he came up, looked like Billy Zane with an enormous head?

[40], [51]:  “Really to match last year’s team - you know, the one with the best record and that won the World Series - in talent, they’re just short a DH”

Aren’t the Yankees down two starters from last year (Wang, IPK)?  If there really is a budget, then I would think it would make more sense to economize on a DH (where there seems to be some cost-effective options) but then use the rest of the money acquiring another starter or two.

I hope all the scribes are writing their “How Boston Bought The <strike>World Series</strike> Wild Card and First Round Exit” articles now

Fixed.

Hmmm…

http://2000magazine.com/websightsthree/yankeesmagazine/NEWPAGES2/pictures/nick johnson.jpg

http://images.starpulse.com/pictures/2008/11/02/previews/Billy Zane-CSH-047635.jpg

Aren’t the Yankees down two starters from last year (Wang, IPK)?

IPK was hurt in April and wasn’t ready to pitch again until the end of August.  He was a non-factor as a starter.  Wang was a disaster, and if Hughes puts up a 5.00 ERA for 30 starts he’ll at least match or exceed what we got out of Wang/Mitre/Gaudin last year.  You still have Gaudin and Mitre for depth and - at the least - they shouldn’t be any worse than last year.  Sure, they should try to build some depth - we went over that in detail yesterday I think - but unless you are willing to put Hughes in the bullpen, any depth the Yankees acquire shouldn’t take any real money.

the Yanks know that Jorge can only realistically catch 100 games at most next season - which leaves him at DH for 45-50 games

Posada is not playing 150 games, even if he only catches 100.  The Yankees can no more count on him for 600 PA than they can count on him for 1100 innings behind the plate.  They still need a regular, preferably lefthanded hitting, DH.

I’m pretty sure that the Cardinals have NOT offered 8/$128M to Holliday.  The “at least” quoted in [13] is couched in a sentence that says the Cardinals “hope (the deal) will allow them to retain the left fielder for at least eight seasons.”  IOW, it’s got at least one, and probably two, option years which may or may not be of the vesting variety.  It’s also probably back-loaded.  It wouldn’t surprise me if a straight 6/$100M beat it in NPV.

As for Nick Johnson, aside from the collision with Kearns, haven’t most of his injuries come in the batter’s box or on the basepaths?  I’m not so sure that DHing him is necessarily going to keep him off the DL.

And for everybody who can’t figure out why Damon may be more appealing to Cashman than Cameron—1) DNYS, 2) two-hole, and 3) DNYS.

Yes, Damon is the better fit for the Stadium (and Cameron makes all sorts of sense in Fenway, and I’m sure he knows it).  I’d hold the line at 2/$20 though.

And I hope the Yankees have at least made an offer to Holliday.

And it looks like the Halladay deal is done pending his physical.  Heyman says the extension is worth “at least” $60M and has two vesting options.  So realistically, it’s probably a 5/$100M deal (or 6/$110 including this year and the money that Toronto is sending).  I can see not wanting to do that and also give up the farm.

[57]  Wang WAS a disaster, but the Yankees got through the season without him because CC, AJ, Pettitte, and Joba all stayed healthy and productive (Joba more the first half than the second, but you get my point).  What happens if one of those 4 guys is injured or comes crashing down Wang-style in 2010?  It’s fine that they have Gaudin and Mitre in a pinch, but the overall quality of the rotation is going to take a huge hit if there is any kind of major problem with one of the other starters.

I just think that, relative to other “needs,” the Yankees could really use another good starter.

I agree SP depth is an issue, which is why I want Sheets.  I’m not sure this is a bigger concern than the OF, though.

The Spirit of the Curse was defined by the previous versions.  Here’s one that matches:
I’d say: the Curse of Cody Ransom.
It fits the events beautifully.  And it has the additional advantage of sounding like a great, dramatic old Western.

And, on a completely subjective note, it would be nice to win without Boggs or Clemens or Damon parading around (any version of) Yankee Stadium.
(By which I mean to express a desire to leave Bay alone.)

Let’s be clear on the Cameron thing:
At low cost for low years, he might have been ok.
But not getting a 37yo, wrong-handed Cameron is most emphatically not something to sweat in the least.

[61] The point about possible injuries and the need for SP depth is fine, but there’s still a huge logical flaw in arguing that having Wang and Kennedy on the 60-day DL for most of the season somehow mitigated that last year.

it would be nice to win without Boggs or Clemens or Damon parading around (any version of) Yankee Stadium

Why?  Personally, I just want the Yankees to win, but if you’re really into the whole silly fanbase rivalry thing, what’s better than knowing the Red Sox fans had to watch Boggs and Clemens celebrate Yankee Championships?  One of my minor baseball regrets of recent years is that Nomar didn’t get a ring as a utility player with the Yanks or Mets.

[64] Pete, this is sacrilege.

Yankee history is all about having ex-Red Sox on the roster.  Before Damon, Clemens, and Boggs, we had Sparky Lyle, Mike Torres, and Waite Hoyt, and the guy who built the old Yankee Stadium.

It’s basically the only reason I’d be interested in Bay.

[65, 66]
Fair enough.  I may feel better about all that.

What happens if one of those 4 guys is injured or comes crashing down Wang-style in 2010?
Let’s stick to “injured”; the latter, I believe, is historically unprecedented.

Finally, given decreasing marginal returns in investing in one side of pythag-enhancement, the current line-up is a special state, I think.  Image an NL line-up where everyone’s a hitting star except the pitcher.  Replacing the pitcher with a hitting star augments TWO line-up positions - the pitcher’s position and the preceding position, which is consistently pitched around in the NL for obvious reasons.
Now, Melky and Greedy aren’t pitchers, but I think that there’s an extent to which this can be true of the Yankee line-up for next year.  Which would increase the marginal return of improving the final position in the order.
Thoughts?

67: and vice versa. Mike Torrez, anyone?

Juan Pierre and half his salary to the White Sox for minor leaguers.  This may mark the end of Kenny Williams’ interest in TSBG.

I don’t understand the Phillies-Mariners Lee trade.  I get trading for Halladay.  I don’t get why you wouldn’t just go ahead and keep both Halladay and Lee for 2010, extending Halladay and letting Lee walk at the end (apparently he was determined to become a FA?).  Lee isn’t particularly expensive.

I really don’t like or want Bay.  The only positive is that he crushes LHP. 

As far as cheap options for DH (since Jorge/Jeter/ARod will render it a part-time job), what’s the story with Garritt Atkins?  Quite a drop-off- he’s good against LHP by the way.  As is Jonny Gomes- perhaps a Gomes/Miranda platoon?  Is Gomes a complete butcher who can’t play the field or can he be useful as an occasional OF?

Also, what about DeRosa- 1yr $4-5M sounds possible given Matsui’s deal. He also crushes LHP and if I’m not mistaken would be a good defensive LF.

The more I think about it the more it seems to make sense to keep as much financial flexibility as possible for next years FA class. Mauer with Posada backing up and DH is good scenario in my view.

Atkins?  Pass.  Gomes is a bit more interesting.  Gomes/Miranda for DH might work (though it burns 2 roster spots on part-time players).

In DeRosa I see a so-so hitter coming off a wrist injury.  Do not want.

But you have to think about these guys in their roles, not as stand-alone entities.  I only bring up Gomes, DeRosa, Dye, and Atkins as relatively cheap, short-term candidates who will primarily play against LHP and as a backup (Atkins at 3B, Gomes and Dye in the OF very occasionally, and DeRosa everywhere).  Obviously it depends on health, etc. but I think Cashman can get creative rather than panic.  Oh, and I fully expect Jesus to be raking at DH in the 2nd half, but maybe that’s just the fan in me. 

But really, what did happen to Atkins?

I just think that, relative to other “needs,” the Yankees could really use another good starter.

And put him where?  If you put him in the rotation opening day, Hughes is in the bullpen.  Most here, I think, aren’t big fans of that.  Though Hughes will be limited to around 150-175IP, he’ll probably (hopefully) be as valuable as any mid-rotation starter you could get, and then he has the benefit of getting up to 175-200IP in 2011.  Many here (myself included) are fine with taking a rehab case, who has some (proven) upside as a starter but may be willing to start the year in the minors or bullpen.

If there is a catastrophic injury and the Yankees need another pitcher b/c the others aren’t pulling their weight and it is a close race, they can get one at the deadline.  Depending on what happens with some teams, a quick look at Cot’s says these guys may be available: Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, Kevin Millwood, Javier Vasquez.

[73 & 74] The question with most guys is what would they cost?  Any of those guys if they are willing to take an MiL deal and start the year in Scranton, I don’t think the answer is “pass”.  Why would it be, if they’re not blocking anyone?  If on the other hand they want “real” money (e.g. 1yr/$10M), the answer is definitely no.  What, in between, is OK?  I think I’d be comfortable w/ just about any veteran RH DH/occasional fielder for 1yr/$1M.  I’m betting Miranda can be (roughly) a league-average DH against righties, so if you get a RH who can do the same you’ll get about a league-average DH for under $2M.

And for everybody who can’t figure out why Damon may be more appealing to Cashman than Cameron—1) DNYS, 2) two-hole, and 3) DNYS.

I get that.  How much more appealing?  You think (offense and defense combined) Damon will be better on the Yankees than Cameron.  My question is how much better?  Clearly they don’t want Damon for what he is asking for so is Damon going to be better enough to justify letting Cameron walk for the contract you want and hoping Damon caves in both years and dollars?  It better be a significant difference we are talking about here and personally I just don’t see one.  Convince me.

[71] It’s about reloading the farm, and their belief that they won’t sign Lee.  The net gain is that they have a set of top prospects, and a hyper-ace for four years, as opposed to their in media res situation of a set of top prospects and a hyper-ace for one year, or, the third proposition you suggest: no top prospects but two hyper-aces, one of whom disappears in a year.

Guys I expect to have lesser seasons:

Jeter
Posada
Pettitte
Mo?

CAIRO disagrees on Mo.  Considering he was coming off surgery and had sore ribs at the end of the season, I’d also disagree.  Obviously, it’s not likely he will do that much better, but I doubt he will have a significantly “lesser” season by any measure, even considering his age.

Clearly they don’t want Damon for what he is asking for so is Damon going to be better enough to justify letting Cameron walk for the contract you want and hoping Damon caves in both years and dollars?

#1) We don’t even know how much they’re willing to pay Damon.  They could be keeping communication open w/ Damon b/c they really, REALLY want to get Holliday.  Or b/c they want to trade for Dunn and Damon is the backup plan for DH.  Or…?  #2) We have no idea if they are “letting Cameron walk”.  Possible he never talked to NY.  Possible they made him an offer he used to up Boston’s offer.  Maybe they talked to him about playing LF and he said, “I’m a CF” and that’s where he’ll play in Boston?

Maybe it’s just me, but you’re coming off as, “Yanks were stupid not to sign Cameron for the deal Boston gave him”.  I think that’s a reach, since we don’t know - and may never know - what Cashman is thinking and what he’s trying to accomplish.

I put him last and included a questionmark.  Plus, even if he does suffer a mild decline, it will have very little impact on the team (at least in the regular season).

[79] Also, even if Mo has a lesser season it doesn’t really matter all that much unless everything goes wrong. Regressing from a low 2 ERA to a high 2 ERA when you pitch 1-2 innings per outing isn’t that much.

[81] I don’t see much decline for Pettitte either.  Sure he’s at an age where he could fall off a cliff.  But he seems to have settled in fairly well as a 2-3 WAR pitcher.  And his rediscovered cutter I think will help him compensate for other areas.  He’s definitely not going to do *better* (minus some serious luck), but I don’t think he’ll do appreciably worse.

From a poetic POV, “The Curse of Cody Ransom” is excellent.  Varied vowels, a pair of repeated consonants, nice iambs.

I too like the Curse of Cody.

...

My expectations are predicated on an abundance of caution.  I expect declines from the old guys.  If they defy age again, yay.  But you can’t count on it.  I want Cashman thinking the same way.  That does not mean you go out and give Holliday 8 years (I think that’s BS, btw).

I only bring up Gomes, DeRosa, Dye, and Atkins as relatively cheap, short-term candidates who will primarily play against LHP and as a backup (Atkins at 3B, Gomes and Dye in the OF very occasionally, and DeRosa everywhere).

The problem is that you just can’t tie up more than ~1 roster spot in guys who will only play the short side of a platoon.

is Damon going to be better enough to justify letting Cameron walk for the contract you want

This assumes that they wanted Cameron at that contract.  Maybe you did, and maybe your reasoning is perfectly sound.  But I suspect that Cashman preferred not to give more than one year to a 37 yo CFer.

The problem is that you just can’t tie up more than ~1 roster spot in guys who will only play the short side of a platoon.

I read his proposal as getting *one* of those guys, and he was just listing where they would play IF you got that player.  Unless you are arguing they shouldn’t platoon the DH at all if both players rarely play besides DH?  In that case DeRosa maybe makes sense, as he looks passable at any position except maybe SS.

If they can’t get a full-time DH relatively cheap, or one of the cast-offs for “free”, go w/ Miranda.  If he can handle righties but not lefties you have options; use those days for ARod, Jeter, maybe Teix or Posada to DH and play your backup IF/C then.  Those guys have got to play sometime anyway, and the (current) backups bat righty, so…if Miranda can handle neither maybe Montero is ready, maybe you get lucky and both Hoffman AND Melky are playing well and Swish is the DH, maybe you upgrade the DH then.

[80] - Of course we can never KNOW but that’s kind of what people do in the off-season.  They second guess the GM and talk about alternatives but I can understand wanting to avoid questions to which we will never get answers.

If you want to stick to arguing numbers make the case that Damon is better than Cameron.  Looking at the CAIRO projections from yesterday Damon projects (in DNYS mind you) to be worth 18 BRAR and a -.5 (average of the two) defender.  Cameron projects to be worth 15 BRAR (without any DNYS boost at all) and a +5 defender (average as a CFer, no adjustment for LF).

So ignoring arguing the thoughts in other peoples minds, why SHOULD Damon be more appealing than Cameron?

17.5 vs 20?  Go with the younger guy, who you know how to coach and whose downside risks you understand well.

Unless you are arguing they shouldn’t platoon the DH at all if both players rarely play besides DH?

I have consistently said that they only need one guy to DH, and that guy should bat lefty.  The short side of the DH platoon will be guys who play the field regularly.  It’s one thing to want a RHB who can play CF to be your fourth or fifth OFer so you can sit Granderson against tough lefties, but it’s quite another to go out of your way to pick up any additional RHB with the intention of platooning them.  Unless you only carry eleven pitchers, you won’t have room for those kinds of guys.

I’d like to know how the current roster projects with Cabrera as the starting LF and Miranda as the LHDH.  I bet it’s pretty darned good, maybe 95 wins-ish.  I just don’t see 200 PA of Mark DeRosa or Johnny Gomes bumping that total up very much at all.

I don’t really see how Damon has MORE leverage now. I mean, aren’t the Yankees pretty much the one team interested in him? They can just sit back and wait, because I’ll eat my hat if anyone offers him 4 years…

This assumes that they wanted Cameron at that contract.  Maybe you did, and maybe your reasoning is perfectly sound.  But I suspect that Cashman preferred not to give more than one year to a 37 yo CFer.

Then he should prefer it for Damon even less. Offense is very similar in overall value and as for the “falling off a cliff” argument, I’d argue Damon, even though he is a year younger, is just as likely to fall off that cliff.  His defensive numbers may be a one year blip or he could already be halfway down the cliff already.  A downward step the Cameron has yet to take.

I think you’re putting way too much stock in the predictive value of defensive data for both players.  You’re using a one-year dropoff in Damon’s UZR to argue that he’s approaching a cliff, while simultaneously assuming that Cameron will never experience a defensive dropoff.  It seems to me that this is a bit backwards—you should be more concerned about a defensive decline from the guy who has more of his value tied up in defense.  Cameron pretty much completely stopped stealing bases last year.  That just might be a better predictor of impending loss of range than the defensive metrics.

17.5 vs 20?  Go with the younger guy, who you know how to coach and whose downside risks you understand well.

I’d go with the guy who is willing to sign the more reasonable deal and not let alternatives go off the board on the hope that a better deal that you are willing to give Damon doesn’t come along.

I’m not looking to beat this to death, well… any more than I already have.  Maybe Cashman had his reasons for passing on Cameron and Matsui in favor of Damon.  Maybe he did chase down Cameron and there were road blocks that they couldn’t (or weren’t willing to) get past.  At some point, and it can be after the 2010 roster is final, I’d like to know he talked to Cameron to find out what he wanted and hear why he didn’t think it was a good fit.

So ignoring arguing the thoughts in other peoples minds, why SHOULD Damon be more appealing than Cameron?

Okay, but the problem is you’ve already started with the assumption that this is between Damon and Cameron.  You started this thread off with, “I just don’t get why they are so focused on Damon that they would let guys like these go off the board at the prices they wanted.”  So you’re starting with an assumption that they just want Damon, followed by the assumption they are willing to pay what Cameron got, and ending it with the assumption that the Yankees “let” them get away.  You’re asking us to accept all that, and since we have to accept that then how do we justify it?  But at the same we can’t argue that there may be more to it?

But lets say we accept all that.  For one, Yankees could be concerned that Cameron’s hitting does *not* translate well to NYS, and rather than a boost to his stats (like Damon gets) he would actually do worse.  Potentially they also value Damon’s defense more, thinking he’ll bounce back some and be more like +3 than -1.  Maybe their projections have Damon as +1 WAR over Cameron.  Which doesn’t mean they are right, but doesn’t mean they’re wrong either.

Oh yeah, I should have also mentioned that I don’t think this

Offense is very similar in overall value

is true.  Cameron has had two straight seasons of 111 OPS+, and doesn’t add much on the bases anymore.  Damon may not add much on the bases anymore either, but he’s gone 118, 126 and is more OBP heavy.  Like I said before, Damon is better suited to the park and better suited to the lineup.  Cameron might have made a lot more sense absent the Granderson trade.

OK, last post I promise…

[93] - I’m not putting much into the defensive value.  I think the offense (especially considering Cameron played in extreme pitchers parks for most of the last decade) is very, VERY close as well.  I don’t see Cameron’s value just in defense.  And while I don’t put much value in defensive stats (even less in projected defensive stats) I do consider it a good bet that Cameron will have more defensive value than Damon in 2010.

I’d go with the guy who is willing to sign the more reasonable deal and not let alternatives go off the board on the hope that a better deal that you are willing to give Damon doesn’t come along.

SO IOW, you don’t believe that there’s any such thing as an opportunity cost.  Or at least that there were any opportunity costs associated with any of the alternatives that have gone off the board.

I think the offense (especially considering Cameron played in extreme pitchers parks for most of the last decade) is very, VERY close as well.

That’s why we adjust for park.  Damon is a better offensive player at this point in their respective careers.

Can we get a swear poll on who the new curse should be?