The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, December 21, 2009

NY Post: Yankees GM Cashman eyes starter by new year

With his everyday lineup for 2010 set, Cashman has turned attention to the rotation, and will almost certainly add a starter by New Year’s, according to a major league source.

Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano, but with the Cubs’ asking price high for the 28-year-old right-hander—who is coming off an injury-plagued 2009—it’s more probable the Yankees will go the free-agent route.

That means selecting from a pool that includes Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets, any of whom would slot behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte in the Yankees’ rotation.

That’s a shallow pool.

Update (SG): Projections after the jump.

Here are the CAIRO projections for the three listed pitchers if we make them Yankees.

Jason Marquis
% W L IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
80% 15 9 216 227 95 86 16 69 121 3.96 3.61 4.11 47.7 4.8
65% 13 10 206 225 100 91 18 71 110 4.37 4.00 4.38 36.1 3.6
Baseline 11 10 196 222 105 96 19 72 100 4.82 4.42 4.64 24.5 2.4
35% 10 10 176 206 99 91 19 68 85 5.06 4.65 4.91 17.4 1.7
20% 8 9 157 189 92 85 19 64 72 5.29 4.87 5.18 11.4 1.1
2009 15 13 216 242 95 89 15 76 110 3.97 3.71 4.23 47.4 4.7


RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)

Joel Pineiro
% W L IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
80% 12 7 174 180 74 67 14 26 95 3.85 3.47 3.64 40.6 4.1
65% 11 8 166 179 79 71 15 28 86 4.28 3.87 3.93 30.8 3.1
Baseline 9 8 158 177 83 76 17 29 78 4.75 4.31 4.21 21.0 2.1
35% 8 8 142 166 79 72 17 29 66 5.01 4.56 4.49 14.8 1.5
20% 7 7 126 152 74 68 17 28 55 5.27 4.81 4.77 9.5 0.9
2009 15 12 214 222 101 89 13 26 101 4.24 3.75 3.45 40.5 4.1


Ben Sheets
% W L IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
80% 13 5 166 149 59 54 14 32 136 3.18 2.95 3.28 51.1 5.1
65% 12 6 159 148 63 58 15 34 124 3.56 3.31 3.59 42.0 4.2
Baseline 10 6 151 147 67 62 17 35 113 3.98 3.71 3.90 33.0 3.3
35% 9 6 136 138 64 60 17 34 97 4.23 3.95 4.21 26.0 2.6
20% 8 6 121 128 60 56 17 33 82 4.47 4.18 4.52 19.8 2.0


For the hell of it, here's how Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes project as starters.

Joba Chamberlain
% W L IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
80% 15 8 204 188 87 77 17 79 203 3.85 3.40 3.59 47.6 4.8
65% 13 9 194 187 92 81 19 80 187 4.26 3.77 3.90 36.5 3.7
Baseline 11 9 185 184 97 86 20 80 172 4.71 4.19 4.21 25.5 2.5
35% 10 9 167 172 92 82 20 76 149 4.95 4.41 4.52 18.5 1.9
20% 8 8 148 158 85 76 20 71 127 5.19 4.64 4.83 12.5 1.3
2009 9 6 157 162 93 82 18 74 138 5.31 4.69 4.48 11.2 1.1


Phil Hughes
% W L IP H R ER HR BB SO RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
80% 11 6 154 138 67 63 12 51 140 3.94 3.68 3.48 34.4 3.4
65% 10 7 147 137 72 67 13 53 128 4.39 4.11 3.82 25.4 2.5
Baseline 8 7 140 137 76 71 15 54 116 4.89 4.59 4.16 16.4 1.6
35% 7 7 126 128 72 68 15 52 100 5.17 4.86 4.50 10.8 1.1
20% 6 6 112 119 68 64 15 49 85 5.46 5.13 4.84 6.1 0.6
2009 8 3 86 66 31 29 7 27 100 3.20 3.00 2.96 26.2 2.6


If you could sign Marquis or Pineiro for one year and around $8 million, they wouldn't be awful fourth starters, but neither projects as better than Joba next year and you probably can't get either for one year. While I did project Sheets, I'd caution those projections with massive error bars, because he did not throw a single pitch last year and he had a surgery which may have taken something away from him.

Neither Joba or Hughes projects as a dominant starter, but their projections/performance in 2010 should not just be looked at in terms of their actual value, but also as part of the development curve towards hopefully establishing themselves as starters. While you shouldn't prioritize a single player's development over the team's overall goals, you probably shouldn't impede that potential development with a minimal at best upgrade.

So I'd say yes on Sheets if he'll sign for a moderate base with incentives, no on Marquis or Pineiro at any price. I'd also see about bringing Wang back.

On an unrelated note, if you wanted to read more about Chris Jaffe's book on evaluating managers, Was Watching has an excerpt up on Casey Stengel.
--Posted at 10:07 am by Jonathan / 178 Comments | - (182)

Comments

Page 1 of 2 pages:  1 2 >

I don’t believe the Zambrano “report.” If there is any useful information to be gleaned from it, it’s that Cash is probably thinking in unconventional ways to acquire a starter that would be a definite upgrade.

“Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets”

Pass.  To displace Hughes or Joba for that kind of marginal (if at all) upgrade is a waste of resources.

Get a LF.

I could see the Zambrano report being true.  Weren’t there stories about him being a clubhouse problem and someone the Cubs should look to dump?  Maybe Cashman wanted to see if the Cubs were looking to dump him with some cash or something.

I wouldn’t touch Marquis or Pineiro.  Sheets is interesting, but not at big bucks.  Depends on how many incentives he’d be willing to take.

I’ll run Yankee projections for the three listed pitchers and add them to this post.

Mis-dir-ection.  Clap, clap, clapclapclap…

Words: “Our priorities are pitching, pitching, pitching and left field.”

Actions: traded for CFer, picked up 5th OFer, signed DH.

Doh, that list should be: traded for CFer, re-signed starting pitcher, picked up 5th OF, signed DH.  The Pettitte thing was such a no-brainer I didn’t even think to list it.

I don’t believe the Zambrano “report.”

Unless you are referring to a different report than the one above, I totally believe it.  Because it says…nothing.  That could have been as simple as Cashman calling the Cubs (Hendry, right?) and saying, “You looking to move Zambrano?  If you are just give me a call when you have the type of package you are looking for.”

I wouldn’t touch Marquis or Pineiro.  Sheets is interesting, but not at big bucks.  Depends on how many incentives he’d be willing to take.

Yeah, I posted a comment on this on the last thread.  I don’t see the point in upgrading from say 2.0 WAR of Hughes (not exact numbers, just for discussion) to 2.5 of Pineiro, with the added benefit of potentially setting Hughes development back a year (or more). 

I can see some benefit if they can talk Sheets into talking a MiL deal (two way contract), or agreeing to start in the bullpen knowing he is first out to start.  Not that he’s likely to agree to anything like that, but he’s *more* likely than guys w/o a recent injury history.  Especially as the Yankees can afford to make the contract the richest if he hits all incentives.

[5] You could potentially add: traded marginally effective relief pitchers (Bruney, Coke) to open door for potentially better relief pitchers (Dunn, Melancon).  Which is a nice way of rationalizing that they are still going after pitching smile

I think it is greatly misdirection as well.

[4] I don’t think it’s necessarily misdirection.

You forgot to list that he signed Andy Pettitte. Before then (even though we all assumed it would happen) Cashman was looking at an official (on paper) rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Chamberlain, Hughes and Gaudin/Aceves/Mitre.  That’s a 4th starter with a innings cap and a 5th starter that isn’t very good at all.

I think it’s all in interpretation. “Pitching, pitching, pitching” could mean pushing everyone down a notch, which he did when he signed Pettitte.

[4] - Hopefully.

If the Yankees don’t have Hughes and Joba in the rotation next year then I really worry about this franchise.  Neither have been give a fair chance.

Joba is 24 and has had 43 “starts” and put up a 4.18 ERA in them and yet everyone is screaming for him to be removed from the rotation. That’s fair? Teams would kill for that.

There is no reason Hughes shouldn’t have gone back to the rotation when Wang went down for good in 2009.

People are going nuts now because they need pitching so badly since they had to go to a 3 man rotation in the playoffs. Well that’s because Joba was right near his pitch limit and when a starter went down they kept their #6, and #7 starter in the bullpen in Hughes, Aceves while #8 was down with injury as well. So their 9th best option wasn’t good enough for people?

If they gave Hughes and Aceves a fair shot at the last rotation spot during a season there is an excellent chance one of them works out to where you didn’t need to go to a 3 man rotation. They may have still done it (because it was a good idea anyway) but that’s besides the point.

You can’t waste 3 years of Hughes and Joba’s pre-arb years and still be playing games with their rotation spots because you are still unsure of what you have.  Both need to be in the rotation and given a chance to become MLB starters. If they don’t have them both in the rotation next year then the Yankees have screwed up both their transitions into MLB.

[4] Oops, typed that before you corrected yourself.

I think we’ve all expressed the conundrum here several times. You’ve got to let Chamberlain and Hughes start in the rotation for their develop, don’t you? If something falls in your lap (like Carlos Zambrano, or as was discussed at length, Roy Halladay), then ok, you move things around. But if they’re going to add someone marginally better, it doesn’t make much sense.

The only thing, to me, that makes sense, is an insurance policy starter, which is tricky to do. Anyone of value is going to want to be in the rotation, and anyone taking a minor league/rehab type deal isn’t much of an insurance policy because their health will always be an issue. One option would be a guy who starts in the bullpen and can be stretched out, which basically rules out Sheets and Duchscherer (I found a few articles where Duchscherer says he doesn’t want to go into the bullpen). Kelvim Escobar seems like the most ideal option, but from what I’ve read he doesn’t even seem to be interested in transitioning back to a starter.

This thing really calls for a creative solution. I’m not sure what it is.

[9]  Agree 100%.

[10] - Wang.

[12] Hey, sign me up. But is he really that different than Bedard? Second shoulder surgery, all sorts of conflicting reports about when he’ll be available, and no guarantee of effectiveness if/when he finally takes the mound. I think they’ll get him back, which just adds another name to the list. That may be the best thing you can do.

Or you can trade for Gorzelanny! wink

SG how would both Wang and Bedard project from June 15th forward?

[14] Just a hunch, but if Bedard’s got 0 IP from June 15 onward, I can do some quick math and figure out his other numbers. That’s the issue. smile

Wang. [writing from Taiwan, the fate of a nation lies in the balance]

[10]

Agreed, with all of it.  I’ve been for signing a rehab case as depth (Sheets is/was the guy I want but he appears to want more than makes sense, at least for now), not signing someone who will block Joba or Hughes (Lackey, for instance).  I think they need depth, especially with IPK gone.  The team always needs 6-8 starters to get through a full season.  It’s important that the 6th, 7th and 8th starters not be absolute dreck (Ponson, Sidney).

Creative options:

1) Sign on of the lower-risk (Sheets, Duchscherer) rehab guys, convincing them to start in the ‘pen, arguing that, as I have above, they’ll get starts.  Can this be done?  I’ve no idea.  It would be nice.

2) Sign Escobar and figure you have Aceves as the 6th starter, and figure you can talk Escobar into an emergency start if need be.


3) Sign one of the high-risk rehab guys (Bedard, Wang), knowing they won’t be ready until mid-way through the season anyway.

[15] I think Bedard is the best option for mid season rotation insurance.  When he is healthy he can be special plus the Yankees want strikeout pitchers.

The thing is that no battle plan ever survives the first shot of the actual battle.  So while we get to piss and moan endlessly about how they’re screwing up FUSE CHAMBER REAM’s development, the team actually has to deal with what’s happening in reality.  It’s easy to say that the way they handled the Aceves/Hughes/Wang thing wasn’t optimal, but it wasn’t completely unreasonable either.  After all, they did win 103 games and the World Series, and they got Hughes up to 110 injury-free, largely effective, and doubtless confidence-boosting innings coming off an injury-marred, terribly ineffective, doubtless confidence-wrecking 70 inning season.  I don’t think that’s so bad from a player development POV.  And Chamberlain made 31 starts and threw 160 innings for cryin’ out loud.

As for Ben Sheets, I just don’t get the guy.  Didn’t he have chances to take a split rehab deal with lots of incentives last year and turn them all down?  So now he’s a year removed from throwing a pitch in anger, nobody has any confidence that he’ll ever pitch effectively again, and he’s looking for a multi-year contract and a guaranteed rotation spot?  Weird.  Or in fairness, maybe just a lot of reports that have no basis in reality.

And yeah, it’s a pretty small pond if Jason Marquis is the big fish in it.

[13] - Yeah there are questions there but that may be the best you can do.  Wang, Lilly, Bedard type who won’t be ready for the start of the season but will hopefully be ready around June and offer insurance insurance if Hughes and Joba implode. 

There is also the option of throwing Pettitte in the pen instead of Hughes or Joba but the guy to send him there would have to have to be really good.

There is also the option of throwing Pettitte in the pen instead of Hughes or Joba but the guy to send him there would have to have to be really good.

This is never going to happen.

SG how would both Wang and Bedard project from June 15th forward?

Figure something like 125 innings, they’d project like:

Erik Bedard: 125 IP, 106 H, 14 HR, 48 BB, 127 K, 3.52 ERA, 32.1 runs saved above replacement level

Chien-Ming Wang: 125 IP, 140 H, 10 HR, 44 BB, 70 K, 4.66 ERA, 11.9 runs saved above replacement level

I’d be wary of trusting those projections all that much, because both are coming off shoulder surgery which is a very risky thing.  There’s a very good chance they’ll be diminished.

I’ve also read in places that Bedard hates the media spotlight and I’d imagine you’d really have to overpay him to get him to come to New York.

Wang/Bedard would be fine with me, especially since by the time they are ready Joba and Hughes will have had a chance to show they belong.  Bedard is probably the better choice, since he wasn’t historically bad the last time he started.

FYI. Doug Kass just wrote about Jack Welch pursuit of The Yankees in his “20 Surprises for 2010” on RealMoney so I suspect he heard from someone in that group.  Kass 2008 predictions were pretty good so we’ll see.

[17] The problem with your first listed option is that it will be really hard, if not impossible, to convince a decent rehabbing pitcher to join the Yankees without the guarantee of a spot in the starting rotation.

If I’m Ben Sheets, I’m not signing anywhere where they want me to start in the minors, or in the bullpen, or w/e.  Particularly if that team is the Yankees, an organization known for not giving marginal players a chance.

So while a Sheets or Duchscherer type signing would probably be ideal for the Yanks, I think it would be awful for the pitcher himself and therefore I have a hard time seeing such a signing happening.

SG thanks for the projections.  Bedard would be a smaller fish on the Yankees then elsewhere so would he really have media issues in NY?  Being part of a winning team should help him if he came to NY.

SG I am also curious about how Brett Myers projects as both a starter and reliever.

Finally what do you think about the Yankees looking into bringing in Brendan Donnelly as a reliever?  He pitched well last year coming back from TJ surgery with the Marlins.

Best way to develop FUSE CHAMBER REAM? Sign Holliday, score a million runs, let them pitch through any minor “scuffling” since Yanks will still win at a decent rate if they score a million runs. Even talk-radio mouth-breathers can do the math: 1,000,000 runs scored/162 > 5.00 ERA.

[25]  Sheets, sure.  But Duchscherer should be worried about resurrecting his career.  He was only a SP for a very short time, and doesn’t appear up to handling 200 IPs.

[19] - That’s why I prefaced everything I said with “If they aren’t in the rotation this year.”  Up until this point you can kind of still justify things (even if I don’t agree with Hughes staying in the pen last year) but you can only put it off for so long.

And I still think they were rushed.  They could have used more AAA innings as starters before they were given their rotation spots and their clocks started. 

[21] - I know, but j was asking for creative solutions.  Just thinking outside the box.

I’m guessing Cashman is tired of answering the endless media queries about “what’s next?” for the Yankees.  Maybe he’s just throwing crap out there and watching everyone get spun up over it.  By now, I’m sure he knows which reporter will say what, so maybe he’s just tickling the wires to see how his crap gets played.

I’d figure that Cashman won’t make a trade unless it completely falls into his lap.

I like the way the team is configured and while another starter for depth would be ideal, it’s hard to find one that will be ready to contribute without hindering Hughes and Joba’s development or willing to ride pine in AAA until needed.

I’d try to sell Duchscherer on the idea of filling either the role of SP or top setup man (i.e. replacing Hughes) and being first in line for saves if Mo is hurt/unavailable.

Duchscherer has a lot more history of being a top RP than an SP.

[29] OK, I guess I could have been clearer that I was using past events to illustrate that we can’t necessarily expect the future to proceed according to even the best-laid plan.  Things that no one is predicting now will happen in 2010 (and 2011, and ...).  Cashman and Girardi will respond to those events in ways that we won’t always agree with.  Optimal development of CHAMBER REAM FUSE is important, but it’s almost always going to take a back seat to winning.

I’m guessing Cashman is tired of answering the endless media queries about “what’s next?” for the Yankees.  Maybe he’s just throwing crap out there and watching everyone get spun up over it.  By now, I’m sure he knows which reporter will say what, so maybe he’s just tickling the wires to see how his crap gets played.

If I were Cashman, I would answer all “what’s next” questions by alluding to planned moves for the Staten Island Yankees.

I read Ken Rosenthal’s latest that the real reason Damon got too expensive is the luxury tax implications in that a $13 mil annual salary becomes $18 mil. If that is the case it probably is going to be tough to see them as players for Holliday. I’m now of the opinion that the following applies:
Patience- with a brand new ring in hand it lessens the urgency to act wildly with a better class of FA next year.  Starting pitchers-Would you rather be patient with our own assets Hughes and Chamberlain (even when they wobble and who are cheap and on hand) or be patient with an acquired B grade ex-National leaguer who will likely worsen when facing AL East batters. (read Marquis, Pineiro etal)  I hope Cashman doesnt feel the neccessity to bring in a body for the sake of doing something.  I guess it makes sense to me anyway to see how some of these rehab guys are later on and consider a spring training offer or mid season offer.
All things considered, I don’t see any big financial moves again due to the luxury tax, next year’s class and because of the new ring just won.

If I’m Ben Sheets, I’m not signing anywhere where they want me to start in the minors, or in the bullpen, or w/e.

I’m still just not seeing where Ben Sheets is getting the leverage to make any demands on any organization that is willing to take a chance on him.  He’s supposedly looking for $12M per, which would be a mind-numbingly stupid thing for any team to guarantee, even if said team could guaranteed a rotation spot.

And no wife-beaters, please.

SG I am also curious about how Brett Myers projects as both a starter and reliever.

I’d have a tough time pulling for the guy, but here’s how he projects.

Brett Myers(SP): 150 IP, 162 H, 28 HR, 50 BB, 119 K, 4.81 ERA, 13.2 runs saved above replacement level

Brett Myers(RP): 71 IP, 69 H, 12 HR, 21 BB, 67 K, 3.85 ERA, 8.6 runs saved above replacement level

Finally what do you think about the Yankees looking into bringing in Brendan Donnelly as a reliever?  He pitched well last year coming back from TJ surgery with the Marlins.

Interesting thought, he might be a nice pickup.  CAIRO likes him quite a bit:

Brendan Donnelly: 40 IP, 40 H, 2 HR, 14 BB, 32 K, 3.40 ERA, 5.3 runs saved above replacement level

And I still think they were rushed.  They could have used more AAA innings as starters before they were given their rotation spots and their clocks started.

That was done a bit out of necessity.  For example w/ Hughes, they needed a starter, he was dominating AAA.  So instead of spending resources for a short term solution, or putting in someone who would likely fail, they put in a pitcher who they expected to do well, and clearly thought was a top-of-the-rotation starter in the near future.  He got hurt, and when he came back he pitched around league-average.  Next year he sucked/got hurt - potentially he was already hurting when he sucked - and then when he came back did well again.

Hughes was brought up at the right time, he got hurt.  You cannot plan *for* injuries.  You can plan to guard against them, but you can’t plan for them.  Joba on the other hand, looking back you think they could have found an effective reliever in 2007 and let Joba dominate the minors for another half-season or so…

That was done a bit out of necessity.

yeah, I have no problem with when they were brought up, and except for Hughes never being moved back to the rotation last year, I think they were handled fairly well.  They are set up inning-wise to be 4th and 5th starters, and the reason we are talking about more starting pitchers is that we want as few Gaudin et al. innings as possible.

I read Ken Rosenthal’s latest that the real reason Damon got too expensive is the luxury tax implications in that a $13 mil annual salary becomes $18 mil. If that is the case it probably is going to be tough to see them as players for Holliday.

The Yankees were already over the luxury tax threshold before they made any moves this off-season.  Everything they do costs them an extra 40%.  Pettitte’s $11.75M is really $16.5M; Nick Johnson’s and Curtis Granderson’s $5.5M each become $7.7M each; etc, etc.  So I don’t think that the fact that you’re tacking on the extra 40% changes the fundamental nature of the choices that you have to make, since you’re tacking it on to everything you do anyway.  It’s still, for example, Damon or (Granderson + Johnson) for about the same money.  And it’s still a question of whether they think Holliday is a guy worth paying a premium and/or passing on other moves for, whether or not you consider that his $15-17M is really $21-24M.

[35] Yes, definitely.  I’m 100% behind the Yankees giving him the *ability* to earn $12M.  For example, giving him $1M each for 150, 160, 170…220 IP.  I don’t think anyone would have a problem paying a Ben Sheets that throws 220IP $12M.  If he only throws 100IP, he’s making $4M.  Someone (Smoltz?) also recently got a contract where I think they got the bonuses for IP OR Games Finished (or something like that), to protect him from being in the bullpen.

So, I’d hold out on Sheets.  Just let him know to always check back before he does anything.  If they can get him on a 2-way contract, or agree to start in the bullpen, great.  Put in whatever bonuses you need (w/i reason of course) to make him happy.  If it is early February and no team is guaranteeing him a starting spot, maybe he’d be amenable to pitching out of the bullpen for a champion, knowing he has a shot to get into the rotation and maybe earn a ton of money.  Maybe he’ll do the Pedro thing and just wait until some team is willing to guarantee him money, even if it isn’t until May/June.

So I don’t think that the fact that you’re tacking on the extra 40% changes the fundamental nature of the choices that you have to make, since you’re tacking it on to everything you do anyway.

It may to a point, no?  E.g. if they think Damon is “worth” $10M, they may only offer $7M (since that comes out to about $10M after tax).  Whereas they may think Holliday is worth $25M, so if the market-price for him ends up at ~18M they are willing to pay that, because he’s worth the $25M it really is.  Of course I have no idea if that is how they think, but it’s perfectly feasible.  More likely, it’s a nice excuse to have for not signing a player other think they should.

You know, there’s something rattling around my head. “something something should start” It feels really familiar.

AH, it’ll come to me eventually.

That thought will meet you on the east coast at some point.

[42] Hopefully it’s not you forgetting to start repaying your college loans wink

I think there is a 0% chance they put Joba in the bullpen to start the year.  They didn’t get him up around 160IP last year to go backwards this year.  If Joba gets hurt or is completely ineffective then perhaps he moves into the bullpen later this year, and I can see him maybe in the bullpen in the post-season depending on how the year goes.  But that’s it.

Hughes *may* spend some time in the bullpen this year - particularly in the post-season - depending on how the season goes and what his IP limit is.  I think it would make more sense to put Hughes in the bullpen than do 4 inning starts, if he’s too close to his ceiling.  W/o having the full schedule in front of me, I think they can skip the #5 starter the first time through the rotation so you’ll probably see him get an inning or two out of the bullpen in early April.

[3] “I could see the Zambrano report being true.”

[6] “Unless you are referring to a different report than the one above, I totally believe it.”

Here’s why I don’t believe it:

10:$17.875M, 11:$17.875M, 12:$18M, 13:$19.25M vesting player option

Cash has suggested that he wants to be able to make offers to next year’s superior free agent class. If they want the budget to be at or around $200m, I don’t understand how you can achieve that goal while adding that contract.

Cash has suggested that he wants to be able to make offers to next year’s superior free agent class. If they want the budget to be at or around $200m, I don’t understand how you can achieve that goal while adding that contract.

Sure, but he could also be looking at next year’s pitchers, and thinking that Zambrano is a better value than any pitcher he could get on the FA market.  And again, *inquiring* about Zambrano doesn’t mean he is actively pursuing him.  It could just mean he’s made a call and asked Hendry if Zambrano is available.  Cashman just doesn’t want a top-talent to be traded w/o having the opportunity to see if he can match the offer.  Especially if the Cubs are also willing to eat some of the salary, or throw in a top-prospect in order to dump the salary.

[46] Unlike the situation with a FA pitcher, Cash would probably have to give up at least one very significant prospect, if not more, so that reduces the value that Zambrano’s contract offers. Also, hasn’t Zambrano had intermittent issues with his shoulder?

Finally, I think Cash wants to have the financial flexibility following the 2010 season to credibly be able to drive up offers for other teams.

I’m highly skeptical that this report has any credibility, but:

The Yankees are working on another ‘big acquisition,’ from what I have been told by people close to their front office.  I have no idea who it is, or if it’s close, but, for the Mets sake, I’m hoping it’s a trade.  I can’t even imagine what will happen to the Mets if the Yankees sign either Bay or Holliday.  Yikes.  That could force St. Louis and Citi Field in to an absolute scramble for whomever the Yankees didn’t sign… and so, I wonder if that is what Bay and Holliday are holding out hope for.

[47] Either I’m under-reacting or you’re overreacting, I think.  Again, unless there is more to it than what I’ve read, all I’ve seen is, “Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano”.  I’m just saying that is very believeable.  I mean, we don’t even know who initiated the phone-call; Hendry could have called Cashman and asked if there were any players Cashman was interested in, Cashman replying, “I’d be interested in Zambrano, but only if you are doing a salary dump”.

You are 100% correct that I don’t see Cashman parting w/ much in the way of talent to get Zambrano.  You are also right that Zambrano’s contract - if the Yankees paid in full - would be prohibitive to making other moves this year and next.  However, I’m also positive that if Cashman thought Zambrano was on the table, he’d want to make sure he was on the “short list” of teams the Cubs called.  I’m sure if Zambrano went to a team and the Cubs picked up 30% of his contract *and* didn’t get more than a handful of C prospects back, Cashman doesn’t want to be sitting there going, “I could have beaten that”.

[49] I think I paid too little attention to the exact wording of the quote.

Won’t we have the same innings limit problems with Hughes we had with Joba last year and how does that affect our search for another starter?  Should at least produce some ginned up controversy for Francsca and Co.  Are the Yankees handling Hughes correctly, is Joba better in the bullpen, ad nauseum.

According to WFAN, the Nats have signed Marquis. *phew*

Looks like we don’t have to worry about Jason Marquis.

I’d love to sign Duscherer. He will be cheaper than Sheets, had auccess in the AL and has experience in the pen, too.

Would it pose a significant injury risk to let Nick Johnson handle the occasional mop-up duty?

The question I have is if the Yanks have a death and dismemberment plan for NJ.

Does he throw a knuckleball?

I’d also see about bringing Wang back.

But, don’t pitchers have to run in spring training to get in shape?? gasp!!

The question I have is if the Yanks have a death and dismemberment plan for NJ.

regarding the death & dismemberment, I know a guy…

I think they can skip the #5 starter the first time through the rotation

Assuming no rain, they don’t need a fifth starter until April 17 (game #11).  They start the season with three games in five days (and six in seven), so they could go CC, AJ, BC, CC, CHAMBER REAM, AJ, BC, CC, CR, AJ before they have to use FUSE.  If they wanted to.

“Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano”

“So Jim, how’s Carlos doing anyway?  Send him our best wishes for the holliday season, would you?  Thanks.”

Or maybe, “No Jim, I wouldn’t say that Melky is untouchable.  How about that Zambrano fellow and some cash to even things out?”

Good.  Now all we need is Pineiro to the Mets, Bedard to the O’s and Sheets to the M’s and we can avoid any stupidity.

Is FUSE CHAMBER REAM some sort of autocorrecting snark? On second thought, never mind.

Hey, isn’t John Smoltz still available? He’d be an asset in the clubhouse.

Via Lohud:

Vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman said this afternoon that the Yankees plan to have Montero open the season as the regular catcher with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Austin Romine, the team’s No. 2 prospect according to Baseball America, will open in Trenton.

Newman said Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy – the other catchers who rank among Baseball America’s top 10 Yankees prospects – will likely open in extended spring training and play short-season ball. Kyle Higashioka is slated to open in Low-A Charleston. High-A Tampa doesn’t have a set catcher now that Chase Weems has been traded.

Report: Braves could sign Damon (or trade for Swisher)

6:11 PM, December 21, 2009

FOXSports.com reports the Braves could have interest in signing free agent Johnny Damon or could trade for Nick Swisher if the Yankees are interested.

The report says, “Damon ... lives in Orlando, the site of the Braves’ spring-training home; the Braves, however, probably would not be willing to pay him $10 million or more per season. ...

“The Yankees still could move Swisher if they wish to obtain Damon or another outfielder; they are not looking to trade Swisher, one source said, but also are not opposed to it.”

Also, in response to this Post story, Carlos Zambrano’s agent, Barry Praver, “said he has not heard from Cubs general manager Jim Hendry about a possible deal. Zambrano, who has a full no-trade clause, would need to agree to any trade.”

“Jim has not approached us about Carlos waiving the no trade provision of his contract nor is Carlos interested in waiving it,” Praver said in the report.

/skepticism

[64] Rich, this link is off to the side on that report:

http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/fashion/best_lingerie_images_8NWXo9SLeErbyN7JtbFqOL?photo_num=1

Check out the dude up close with the cell phone camera.

... in picture #2.

[66] Good catch. I’m surprised that they didn’t have better security.

I was wrong about the Zambrano report.

Davidoff:

-The Yankees did hold a cursory conversation with the Cubs, a few weeks back, in which they asked about the availability of Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano, as reported here. But the Yankees would’ve done that deal only with the Cubs paying some of the freight; Zambrano is owed another $53.75 million through 2012, with a $19.25 million vesting player option attainable for 2013.

And now, with Milton Bradley gone, the Cubs have little incentive to trade Zambrano, anyway, unless they get something of value in return.

[67] He had those great seats and all he brought was cell phone camera?

The question I have is if the Yanks have a death and dismemberment plan for NJ.

worried about “the ice of Boston” on opening day?

This worked the last time:

Can the Giants get a win today?

Good.  Now all we need is Pineiro to the Mets, Bedard to the O’s and Sheets to the M’s and we can avoid any stupidity.

Piniero yes, and obviously Marquis, but signing Bedard or Sheets to an incentive laden one year deal would be “stupidity”?  really?

bizarre.

there is close to a 0% chance that Hughes or Joba (whomever starts the year out of the rotation) DON’T get a bunch of starts even if they sign another guy. 

and you know what it means if they AREN’T able to crack the rotation?  it means the Yankees won about 110 games, b/c that’s what would happen if a CC, AJ, Pettitte, Joba and Sheets rotation stayed healthy and effective for 162 games.  that wouldn’t be so bad, would it?

[71]  Sheets is asking around $10M guaranteed, I’m sure Bedard will be looking at similar $$.  If you get them for a $2M base with incentives, sure, but that aint’ happening.

Now they won’t get that, but they will get at least $5M with a bunch of incentives and a guaranteed rotation spot.  Then once they have the contract, they’ll be kept in the rotation too long even if they’re not effective.  And they’re very little to be ineffective coming off serious shoulder injuries.

Finally, if Hughes is not in the rotation, he’ll be the #1 set-up man, and you’ll get the same situation as this year where they won’t want to move him when they need a starter.

I’m all for adding depth AFTER Hughes in the rotation: Wang, Escobar, Duchscherer, etc.  But paying a bunch of money for guys who are not particularly likely to be better than Hughes makes no sense.

Better to use the money on a LF.

[69] - I’m just thinking there might be a secret curse on Johnson, that he’s a time bomb waiting to go off.  But what do you want me to say?

[73] You are invited to express your opinion, but someone has got to pay for the piano.

[72] ok, but you are making about 3 giant assumptions for your argument to work.

i’m not ready to say it’s unlikely that Sheets will be effective b/c his injury wasn’t last season and it wasn’t his shoulder. 

just because they wouldn’t move Hughes last year, doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen again.  it’s not like we didn’t go through this exact same scenario with Joba in 2008.

But paying a bunch of money for guys who are not particularly likely to be better than Hughes makes no sense.

but how about the guy that SG projects to be 1.7 wins better than Hughes at the top of this page?

projections are projections, i get that, but i just don’t see how signing Sheets, a guy with #1 upside, to a one year deal could be considered “stupid”.  i just don’t.

I say we scoop up Victor Zambrano.
I know of a certain, well coiffed, nicely jacketed, meterosexual pitching coach that can “fix” VZ in 10 minutes. Track record to die for.
Hope (lantern) reads this.
I’m Scott Kazmir and I approved this post.

Bradshaw looks so much better than Jacobs these days.

Shalom, old thurman fan, I hope you had a happy hannukah. We had a big latke party last night.

sheets to a reasonable one year deal is a no brainer, IMHO. But I’m liking the new lean and mean Yankees. Granderson and NJ replacing Matsui and Damon and saving $16 million.

“but how about the guy that SG projects to be 1.7 wins better than Hughes at the top of this page? “

SG notes the “massive error bars” around Sheets projection. 

I just don’t believe he can stay healthy.  He’s been progressively breaking down for years.  Talk to anyone who’s a Brewers fan. He can’t be relied on at all.

Is there a more WTF franchise in the NFL than the Redskins? These aren’t the Browns or the Lions, fer chrissakes…when was the last time they were good?

I mean, they are a marquee franchise

BTW, anyone here thinning on top? Very depressing. I’m thinking of trying propecia.

RAB says the Yankees are working on landing a starter TONIGHT, but no word on who that is.

i think adding another starter is prudent, but i should probably wait and see who it is.

Who is this team and what have they done with the Giants?

The Hardball Times, May 2008:

All about Ben Sheets

[...]

Then the injuries began to pile up for the three-time All-Star:

In 2005, he sustained what was termed a “viral infection” of the inner ear, and missed 30 games due to dizziness and altered balance.

A torn latissimus dorsi muscle in his right shoulder occurred in late August and ended his season.

In the offseason, he had a microdiscectomy back surgery to correct a herniated disc in his lumbar spine (low back). While this is considered to be a minor back surgery, it should be noted that no back surgery is “minor.” Having any spine procedure as a 27-year-old is somewhat concerning, and leads me to wonder how his overall core conditioning is.

The 2006 season saw Sheets begin the year on the DL due to a posterior shoulder strain.

Tendinitis of the right shoulder landed him back on the DL in early May. He spent a great deal of time on the DL with this injury—a span of 72 games passed before he returned to action.
A torn tendon in his right middle finger sidetracked his 2007 campaign; he was sent to the DL in July and missed a course of 40 games.

After returning for a few starts, a minor hamstring strain was enough for him to miss the final eight games of the regular season.

He has also dealt with an array of minor injuries that did not require much, if any, missed time (right pectoral strain, left groin strain).

The latest injury for Sheets has been coined, “right triceps tightness,” but it might as well include the rotator cuff. In my clinical experience, I have seen very few baseball pitchers present with a pure, isolated “triceps strain”—rather, there is almost always an involvement of the rotator cuff muscles in what is called the “Quadrangular Space.”

Why do these injuries continue to mount for Sheets? The culprit appears to be his high arm slot. Although it’s partly responsible for the large 12-6 curveball, it’s also responsible for taxing the rotator cuff to the max. As a rule of thumb, the higher the arm slot, the harder the rotator cuff and biceps must work to stabilize the head of the humerus. This places stress on the rotator cuff interval, which includes ligaments in the front of the shoulder that also add stability. Let’s talk about this in a little more detail.

Sheets places a lot of horizontal abduction on his shoulder when he brings the ball behind him at the beginning of his throwing sequence—prior to the cocking phase. He brings his pitching arm far behind his trunk, and basically points his elbow and forearm beyond second base (to the right side of the infield). This is the beginning of the “wide circle” that Dan was talking about. This motion places stress on the anterior shoulder structures such as the anterior joint capsule, coracohumeral ligament, pectoralis major, biceps, and labrum.

[80] If you give him a 1 year deal and you already have who the Yankees have, are you really ‘relying’ on him? He’s gravy, pure and simple.

I think this market shapes up when Sheets realizes that he is < Harden and then looks at the deal Harden got. Harden got $7.5M with incentives up to $10M and an $11M option/$1M buy out. You can probably argue that Sheets is better than Harden, but I’m giving Harden the right to ask for the bigger contract of the two given that he pitched last year and Sheets didn’t. $5M with performance incentives up to $10-$12M seems fair to me.

if only they could play the Redskins every week

[84]


Olney:

Heard this: Yankees working very hard tonight on deal for starting pitcher. Remember that they came close to deal for Aaron Harang in summer.

Pass.

Nicks is special.

i think adding another starter is prudent, but i should probably wait and see who it is.

I’m somewhat intrigued by those Vazquez speculations, but I don’t think I’d give up Swisher for him, as has been suggested. $6.75M for a .900+ OPS corner OF and controlled for 2010 and 2011 vs $11.5M for a high K/9, 215 IP+ RHP who’ll likely be a low 4/high 3 ERA guy. I guess it depends on which direction you think these guys trajectories are pointing.

Wow, this looks like a team that can win in the playoffs. Too bad they screwed it up last week.

Nicks is going to be awesome

The only way Swisher for Vazquez (whose contract expires after 2010) makes sense is if they sign Holliday.

Pass.

Harang’s peripherals don’t look *that* bad. It’s certainly a buy low. All deals have the potential to be good deals if the price is right.

[94] agreed, but i have little doubt that is what would happen if that trade went down.

All deals have the potential to be good deals if the price is right.

That’s true, but I don’t think his presence warrants moving Hughes or Joba to the pen.

KenDavidoff
 
Hear that #Yankees have “two or three” serious trade talks for starting pitcher - A. Harang isn’t one of them.

[94] Which then gets a lot more expensive. Vazquez makes $5M more than Swisher. So if you’re giving Holliday something like $18M, and I think we’re hovering around $185-190M, then all of a sudden we’re looking at a $210-215M payroll on opening day. Something tells me they’re not going that high, but hey, I was as surprised as you guys when they signed Teixiera.

All deals have the potential to be good deals if the price is right.

No.  If a mediocre starter were to play for NY for free, but would block Ream or Fuse, it would be bad.  If the pitcher wasn’t good enough to get playing time, then anything paid is too much.  No such universal statement can be valid given finite resources and roster spaces.

Page 1 of 2 pages:  1 2 >
0 of 963 registered readers are currently logged in.
There are currently 75 visitors who are not logged in.
There was a record 241 simultaneous visitors on May 2, 2011 at 11:54:25 pm.

Does Robinson Cano’s Approach Change With Men on Base?
(50 Comments - 1/26/2010 10:44:25 am)

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
(14 Comments - 1/25/2010 10:56:33 pm)

One Of The Following Stories May or May Not Be True
(26 Comments - 1/25/2010 1:51:23 pm)

What Happened to Wang?
(13 Comments - 1/24/2010 11:53:14 pm)

NY Times - Glanville: Seeing is Disbelieving
(62 Comments - 1/24/2010 9:27:27 pm)

RealGM Baseball: Yankees Among Teams Interested In Edmonds
(3 Comments - 1/23/2010 4:52:40 pm)

Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?
(65 Comments - 1/22/2010 10:24:20 am)

CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16
(35 Comments - 1/21/2010 2:53:01 pm)

MLB.com - Bauman: Yankees appear stronger
(18 Comments - 1/21/2010 5:21:26 am)

TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
(5 Comments - 1/20/2010 9:00:27 am)



*ADVERTISEMENT*
Our new URL is: http://www.rlyw.net
*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

image
Way back in the 20th century, Bill James wrote the first essential book about baseball managers. Chris Jaffe has just written the second.
- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com

From now on, whenever I have a question about a manager, Jaffe's book will be the first and last one I reach for.
- Sean Forman, Baseball-Reference.com


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*
John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*