It’s ridiculous what kind of effect the Yankees not making the playoffs has on the economy.

Mussina.. won 20 games for the first time… organizatonal meetings in 2 weeks.. Montoursville, PA..

These guys need to do some actual reporting and research.

They don’t teach actual reporting and research in J school anymore, just on-camera technique and self-make-up.

Other stories in the same vein:

Politics: John McCain might lose the election. But he could win.

Health: A cure for cancer could be discovered within the next decade. Or it might not.

Art: Next Batman movie will have a hard time living up to the Dark Knight. But it could do it. Or not.

Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?

Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?

I am forced to wonder this every day.

I am pretty sure Moose will be back next year on a one year deal.  I base this on nothing except all the evidence that I’ve seen and my entire experience of the world.

It’s a sad excuse for reporting, but it’s refreshing to see a piece which doesn’t essentially insist that he’ll retire.

I think Moose went through the whole year assuming it was his last… but then he performed really well, and now he’s confused as to what he should do.  I know some reporters are all, “If anyone could walk away on top, it’s him”... which sounds accurate enough, but at the end of the day, I think his competitive nature is going to come through.  His brother has posted something along those lines on his blog, too.

I do think that he’ll retire if the Yanks don’t make an offer, though (don’t know why they wouldn’t).

but then he performed really well, and now he’s confused as to what he should do

I think that’s accurate.  After 2007, he was probably looking at simply not being able to be a top-of-the-line starter, and 300 wins was a pipe-dream.  Now, he’s figured out how to still be effective, and 300 is clearly within reach.  But also noted that he’s smart enough to realize he’ll probably need 3 years to get there, and he noted that his wife wanted him to retire years ago.  So…keep chasing a goal that probably means more to us than him, and disappoint family, or go out on top, on your own terms, and make your family happy.  Hmm…this is why my feeling is he’ll quit.

If he thinks the Yankees have a legitimate shot at a ring in 2009, I could see him coming back for one season. But yeah, to come back for three seems like too much given the fact that his family wants him home.

I understand the logic behind the statement, but I do think it’s unfortunate that Mussina is placing so much weight on the “3 years or nothing” idea.  Assuming he wants to pitch at least in 2009, I don’t think he should have to force himself to stay home because of the possible weight of 2010 and 2011.  Take it one year at a time, Moose.  For all we know, he could suffer a totally freak injury next year which takes 2010 and 2011 off the table anyway.

Assuming he wants to pitch at least in 2009, I don’t think he should have to force himself to stay home because of the possible weight of 2010 and 2011.

I understand that, but from his standpoint (what he’s claimed so far anyway), is that the only reason he would come back and pitch is to get to 300 victories, and he can’t see himself winning 30 games the next two years. 

Now sure, perhaps over the next couple of weeks he decides that winning a World Series is *more* important than 300 wins, and is willing to give it one more shot, especially if the Yankees add some pieces.  However, then you have the counter about how hard it will be for him to leave if he has say 287 wins after next year.  I don’t know.  I’m still thinking he’ll hang-em up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides to pitch again, either.

So you’re saying you think he has about a 60% chance of retiring, and a 60% chance of coming back next year?  I need to find some way to get in on that arbitrage.

However, then you have the counter about how hard it will be for him to leave if he has say 287 wins after next year.

I really don’t see why it would be easier to walk away with 270, knowing you definitely still have something left, than with 280-285.  I think both are tantalizingly close to 300.  It’s that silly “if I don’t try, then I’ll never know if I would have gotten it” philosophy.  He must feel differently though, making my opinion moot.

What is a 40 year old man going to do at home in rural PA?  Moose should man up and do what he wants to do.  If he didn’t have the ability, that would be one thing.  It should not be about the money, 300 wins or a World Series ring.  The man was put on this earth to pitch, not play farmer.

seriously.  and who better to assess his personal happiness than us, a group of anonymous strangers?

Well, we’re objective.

... and maybe SG can run the numbers on Mussina based on other players who left before they had to vs those who didn’t, if one can select unbiased samples.

So you’re saying you think he has about a 60% chance of retiring, and a 60% chance of coming back next year?  I need to find some way to get in on that arbitrage.

I don’t think I’m saying that; the Southern Comfort I had last night might be.  I’d put it as about 70/30 that Moose retires.  So it is likely, but not surprising.  I’d say under 10% chance of returning is suprising.

I really don’t see why it would be easier to walk away with 270, knowing you definitely still have something left, than with 280-285.

Trying to find a good anaology w/o getting wordy.  Basically, the closer you get the harder it is to walk away.  Kind of like if you are playing a video game at night, and you *know* you should go to bed.  But you’re *so* close to to achieving some landmark.  You’re thinking, “like 30 minutes, and I’ve got it”.  After 30 minutes you don’t, but now you’re closer, so what’s another 15 minutes?  Next thing you know, it’s two in the morning, and maybe you still don’t have it.  But the closer you get the easier it seems to be to obtain, so you want to keep trying.

The man was put on this earth to pitch, not play farmer.

I think Moose is also considering that he should be a husband and a father.  If he feels he can’t adequately do that AND pitch for the Yankees, or you really going to crucify him for quitting?

I have absolutely no frame of reference that would allow me to even imagine what it would be like to choose between retiring at 40 or going back to my 7 or 8 figure job.  I just hope he comes back.

Great way for Mussina to have finished his Yankees career, with 20 wins.

IOW…. Time to move on for the organization. It can only go downhill from here for Mussina. The attachment many here have to certain current Yankees is nice, but what has been the sum of it all? Especially since they stopped the 2004 ALCS with the Yankees up 3 games to 0.

Time to move on.

between retiring at 40 or going back to my 7 or 8 figure job

I know I would like to retire at 40.  Unfortunately, the only way my salary has 7 or 8 figures is if you include the decimal places. 

I suppose you could think of it more like taking a year or two sabbatical, and then going to a university to teach (I have a feeling after a few years Moose will be a pitching coach or “instructor”).  I’ve known a few people who have done that (though a little older than 40).

Unfortunately, the only way my salary has 7 or 8 figures is if you include the decimal places. 

For me, the period and comma might have to be included as part of the 7 or 8 figures.

IOW…. Time to move on for the organization. It can only go downhill from here for Mussina.

that depends entirely on how far and how fast it goes “downhill”, no?

if his new “style” allows him to pitch to a 4.00 ERA next year (allowing for some downhill-ness), then he will be a huge bargain for the 2009 Yankees if he signs a 1 year contract.

the Yankees shouldn’t cut ties just to cut ties. 

if they think he can pitch, they should bring him back.  if they think this year was a mirage, they should part ways.

on the flipside, they shouldn’t allow Moose to block something else they were looking to do which would provide more benefit long term (which is where i think you were going).  but the Yankees have so many open spots in the rotation right now, i am not sure it’s an issue.

but the Yankees have so many open spots in the rotation right now, i am not sure it’s an issue.

I think that’s a pretty safe bet.  The Yankees pretty much *need* two more rotation members.  At most, they have Wang, Chamberlain, and Hughes for next year.  I don’t think anyone particularly wants Aceves and Kennedy (or Igawa!) in the starting rotation in April, so they need a minimum of two more.  They may want three and let Hughes start in AAA, and be called up when the inevitable injury occurs. 

If they can get CC (big if), I’d rather Moose for 1 year than Lowe for 3 or AJ for 5, but I’m also bullish on Joba and Hughes.

I think Kerry would have made a fine president, but this is pretty sad if true.

If they can get CC (big if), I’d rather Moose for 1 year than Lowe for 3 or AJ for 5, but I’m also bullish on Joba and Hughes.

Where does Pettitte rank on your list?  Above or below Burnett/Lowe?

Pettite on a 1 yr deal would be better than Burnett or Lowe on those deals.

I voted for Kerry, but am far from certain he would have made a fine president.

By the way, Pettitte for one more year is basically a given.  I don’t know why people are talking as if he won’t come back.  Personally, I think the Yanks would be foolish to sign two free agent pitchers.  The team needs bats more than arms at this point.

If Moose comes back Pettitte may *not* be a given.  But since I think Moose isn’t coming back, I think he is a given.  And yes, I’d rather have Pettitte on 1-year then Burnette/Lowe for 5/3.

Personally, I think the Yanks would be foolish to sign two free agent pitchers.

I’m including one of Pettitte/Moose in needing two pitchers, so really I think they should only be signing one (since one of Pettitte/Moose is back).  Yes, they need bats more, but as I said earlier I really can’t see IPK or Aceves or Igawa (or even Coke) as a starter in April, and the only others signed right now are Wang, Hughes, and Joba.

So, if you assume Moose retires, in a perfect world, resign Pettitte, sign CC, sign Tex, and somehow trade Matsui and sign another bat.  But since it isn’t a perfect world, I’d be happy if two of those occur (Pettitte and Tex would be my top two).

To be pedantic, they don’t need a 5th starter in April, do they?

And I would guess that IPK projects as a fifth starter - have we seen the #s?  Ditto Aceves and even Coke.  From the three of them one at least ought to have the true value one would expect.

I voted for Kerry, but am far from certain he would have made a fine president.

I voted for Kerry, and fine or not, he would have been better than Gore, Bush, McCain, and Obama.

My point wasn’t to praise Kerry, esp. as CAIRO doesn’t project presidential performance, just to contrast my opinion of him with the linked Yankees-fan smear.

On one side you have a world series ring, 300 wins, and the HOF.  On the other you have family.

If he retired now he might not make the Hall but, he can always go out and get a new, younger, hotter, wife and have more kids.

Peavy?

He and his agent have discussed waiving his no trade.

A native of Alabama, and a career Padre who just bought a West Coast home, Peavy — who went 10-11 on the last-place Padres with a 2.85 ERA — is due $59 million from San Diego through 2012.

Any potential deal with the Yankees would probably hinge on guaranteeing his $22 million club option for 2013, or restructuring the contract to raise Peavy’s base to more than $16 million per season.

I would imagine you would have to give up Jackson or Montero or both, and probably two of Hughes, Kennedy, Melencon.

I’d put it as about 70/30 that Moose retires. 

I mean this in the nicest possible way, but I think putting percentages on something like this is silly when all we’re going on is media reports.  We don’t know the guy.  But if we are going to put percentages on this… I think his own brother saying that he thinks he’ll be back bumps it up from 30%. 

Basically, the closer you get the harder it is to walk away.

No, I get that.  I still think it’s faulty logic.

If he retired now he might not make the Hall but, he can always go out and get a new, younger, hotter, wife and have more kids.

Is baseball life so tough that it places that much stress on family?  And is family time so important that the kids might not appreciate a bigger fatter inheritance for two more years of dad’s time, of which, probably would be pretty sweet with the perks of being around the ballpark, 300 win HOF dad.

Or don’t all ball players, if they decide to continue playing, pretty much cite: the kids want him/her to keep playing?

I totally agree with villainx.  My father is a doctor, and I’d imagine baseball players still get to spend more time with their families (the time at home + the entire offseason) than my father got to spend with me (due to being on call, long hours, etc.).  I suppose the difference is that baseball players can choose to retire at an early age because of their monetary situation.

I doubt baseball players see much of their families during the season.  On the other hand, they do have four months each year to make up for lost time.

This Manny character sure knows what to do with a bat in his hands.

The opposing pitcher has as many RBIs as Manny…

Unless a player has been explicit in his desire to retire, I always lean towards them returning.

I can’t think of a recent player who was wanted back by his team that retired without previous explicitly saying stuff like “I am retiring.”

Here, we just have third-hand reports.

Moose, of course, could be the notable exception.

Matsuzaka walks three in the first inning - no runs scored.

Effin’ Matsuzaka.

Kind of hard to put this pandapitcher away.
A young friend of mine has wee son. He and his wife play a dvd for him called the wiggles. The weeun is put into a trance by the stupid, boring things the wiggles sing and say.
Mice-K may be the king of the wiggles.
I force my Katt to listen to Hendrix,read Joyce and watch Discovery.
Kid with the wiggles seems happier.
Kid cant climb worth a shit or catch a crow with his mouth but are those real life skills?

No hits allowed by Matsuzaka through five innings, 1-0 Sox.

Annoying.

A surprising lack of faith in Carl Crawford by Joe Maddon, allowing Longoria to hit away with a 3-0 count.

Not that I blame him, really.

You have got to be fucking kidding me!

The reliever comes in in the 8th inning, no outs and two men on (Red Sox up two runs), throws THREE STRAIGHT BALLS to start Pena off. You have Evan freakin’ Longoria on deck, and you give him the hit away sign!?!?

What the fuck?!!

And then the double play.

Ah well.

Well that was a thoroughly frustrating game.  Ugh.

I mean this in the nicest possible way, but I think putting percentages on something like this is silly when all we’re going on is media reports.

I only put the percentages on it because DaPuj put up the “60%...60%” comment.  If it makes you feel better, I’d say, “I feel somewhat strongly that Moose will retire”.

Unless a player has been explicit in his desire to retire, I always lean towards them returning.

I’m pretty sure (probably won’t look it up though), that quotes attributed to Moose hint at retiring.  Not saying 100%, “I’m going to retire”, but hinting.  But guys pull surprises all the time, whether it is a Ryne Sandburg suddenly retiring, or Roger Clemens unretiring.  It’s not a science, it’s a feeling.

I suppose the difference is that baseball players can choose to retire at an early age because of their monetary situation.

I think that’s a big thing; I get to spend plenty of time with my kids, but I’d still like to spend more.  Unfortunately, since I don’t have several million $$ in the bank, I can’t do that.  I think we also know about other players that have retired, citing as a big reason their family (Paul O’Neill).

I still think it’s faulty logic.

I think Moose is going more on emotion that logic, and the few seldom intertwine.

And I would guess that IPK projects as a fifth starter - have we seen the #s?  Ditto Aceves and even Coke.  From the three of them one at least ought to have the true value one would expect.

From a pure baseball standpoint, I totally agree with you.  However, there is also a PR standpoint that Cashman has to play (not having IPK booed first time he takes the mound, for example).  And also from a baseball standpoint, two of the members of the rotation will have innings-limits.  Fifth starters typically don’t pitch many innings, so if you have 3 spots in the rotation that won’t give a lot of innings, that puts a lot of stress even on a deep bullpen.

only put the percentages on it because DaPuj put up the “60%...60%” comment.

I only put up the percentages because I’ve been thinking about arbitrage a lot lately.  Sorry.

Sportscenter: “He was near a no-no!”  Uhhh.  Right.  Is Dice-K the most frustrating pitcher to root against?  At least with someone like Pedro, you at least repect the fact that they are kicking butt.

And the Rays shall inherit WOE.

By the way, Pettitte for one more year is basically a given.  I don’t know why people are talking as if he won’t come back.  Personally, I think the Yanks would be foolish to sign two free agent pitchers.  The team needs bats more than arms at this point.

I think with Pettitte, Mussina, Abreu, and Giambi packing they need both. If they can sign one of the top FA pitchers and Teixeira they will have some prospects that they could afford to deal for a CF. Would Kennedy, AJax, and Miranda be enough to get Kemp?  What if they included Damon + $$$?

I meant potentially packing, I agree there is a good chance Pettitte and Moose will be back.

Pedroia is clearly on steroids.  Clearly.