Some historical perspective for those who wonder whether Hughes should have come back after the rain delay:

Girardi sent 22 year old Josh Johnson back out to the mound after a long delay while with the Marlins in 2006.  Johnson subsequently needed TJ surgery.  Girardi was blamed, almost certainly unfairly, but still.  Once bitten twice shy.

Bruney will probably go on the bereavement list if he doesn’t go on the DL.  Ohlendorf may get sent down, not so much because of how he pitched last night, but because they need guys who will actually be available to pitch tonight.

Thoughts on who’ll get the call?  Edwar and who else?

BTW, I should be able to liveblog tonight, especially with the game on free TV tonight.

Once bitten twice shy

Or lesson-learned.  I have no problem with Hughes not going back out; Girardi talked to his coaches, used prior experience, and decided it wasn’t in anyone’s best interest to have Hughes go back out if the delay was longer than 30 minutes or so.  That’s the best for the long-term.

With a 3-0 lead and an uncertain game length, would this have been a good game to use Joba for an extended outing, coming out of the delay?  I’d like to see him go 3-4 IP occasionally to keep him stretched out for the eventual rotation move.

What do you guys think?

Joba won’t enter the rotation until July, so I don’t believe the Yanks are anxious to stretch him out just yet.  In any case, the Yanks had their chances to win the game (i.e. Giambi up with bases loaded, and Jorge with men on first and second in the ninth).  Sometimes, it just doesn’t work out.  Even if Joba had thrown another scoreless inning, the Yanks would have had to put up runs in the 10th - otherwise, Traber almost certainly was coming in the game.

As for the call-ups, Rasner makes sense for me because he can actually pitch 5-6 innings if Kennedy throws another dud.  The other guy should be Albaladejo, another guy who can go three if need be.  Also, it’s time to ditch Moeller and call up Shelley Duncan - especially as the Yanks will face two lefties against Cleveland.

With a 3-0 lead and an uncertain game length, would this have been a good game to use Joba for an extended outing, coming out of the delay?

The thought crossed my mind, but I think the weather was iffy enough that even if it crossed Girardi’s mind it quickly passed.

I do think that’s the best way to get Joba into the rotation eventually.  Extended innings with less frequency, but I’m not sure the Yankees are comfortable enough with the rest of the non-Mo part of the pen to start doing that yet.

With one out and Crede coming up I kind of assumed they would walke Crede and set up a DP. He’s been very hot this April and I know the next hitter may have been just as tough but what would the second run mean. Why not do it? Am I missing something?

All,

This might have been discussed in one of the threads post-Hank statements. But instead of debating the merits of shifting Joba from bullpen to starter, have we speculated what would happen if Joba proves essential in the bullpen this year, thereby limiting his innings to no more than 90 innings. What would happen next year, does his innings limitations still apply, meaning in his second season, he would still be limited to 150+ innings in 2009? It almost forces the Yankees to make the transition this year so Joba can meet his innings quota and not be hamstrung with an innings cap next season as a starter again. I guess my question is, what would Cashman and the front office do if the Yankees are in a pennant race and the only reliable reliever is Joba. Do they take him out and possibly sacrifice crucial games in the second half or leave him in the bullpen and go for the short term rewards, even if it meant holding back his development as a starter one more year. As an advocate of Joba as a starter, it’d really hard for me to push for it, if him being in the bullpen means the Yankees gets into the playoff…

Why do people think shifting Joba to the rotation will “sacrifice” games?  What about the games he wins as a starter that a lesser pitcher would have lost?  The Yanks have a surfeit of relievers right now in the upper minors and one or more of them should be able to provide some stability in the late innings.  In other words, among Edwar, Scott Patterson, Chris Britton, Jose Veras, David Robertson and Albaladejo - a few ought to be at least decent and may very well be much better than that.  Do they have to be as good as Joba to fill the role?  Certainly not.  Will they give up runs and perhaps blow some games?  Sure.  That’s no argument for keeping a four pitch power pitcher in the bullpen.  And, as for the innings limit question, yes, Joba would have an innings limit if he stayed in the pen and threw 90 innings.

I guess my question is, what would Cashman and the front office do if the Yankees are in a pennant race and the only reliable reliever is Joba.

I’m gonna assume you mean other than Mo…

As an advocate of Joba as a starter, it’d really hard for me to push for it, if him being in the bullpen means the Yankees gets into the playoff…

I say he moves to the rotation, no matter what.  I don’t really care if it costs them a playoff spot this year.  If the bullpen is that poor, they’re not going to do anything in the playoffs anyway.  I’m sick of the one-and-done playoff experiences.  Also, there are plenty of live arms on the team and in the minors to build a decent bullpen.

Joba is a potential dominant start, and a dominant starter will go a long way towards playoff sucess.  I want a Joba, Hughes, Wang playoff rotation in 2009-2011, and if missing the playoffs this year is the price, I’ll gladly pay it.

As for the call-ups, Rasner makes sense for me because he can actually pitch 5-6 innings if Kennedy throws another dud.

Rasner last pitched on the 21st, so if not tonight then tomorrow he’ll be ready to pitch 5+ innings if needed, so he makes sense.  The *only* concern I would have is if Rasner is at the point where calling him up means he can’t be sent back down.  If that is true, are the Yankees at the point where he will stay up the rest of the year?

Why do people think shifting Joba to the rotation will “sacrifice” games?

I’m with you in that I think it will enhance the pitching not detract from it.  However, to be fair, if ALL of Moose, Hughes, and IPK are pitching at a high-level come July (unlikely), and the bullpen is basically Mo and Joba I think it is a fair question.  Probably still a good idea and move him into the rotation and go to 6-man (to keep IPK and Hughes’s IP down).

Joba would have an innings limit if he stayed in the pen and threw 90 innings

I think the question was more of, would his innings limit be lower.  I think if Joba only throws 90 or so innings this year, his limit next year is 150 (again).  If he gets up to 150 this year, then it will be around 180.

Or lesson-learned.

Or both.  The situation with Hughes last night was not exactly a carbon copy of the Johnson game in 2006 (it was a longer delay and I think Johnson had already thrown more pitches).  So yeah, there’s a lesson there, but there are also perhaps some subtleties that may get tossed out with the bathwater.  Personally, I agree with the decision to be very careful with Hughes’ future under circumstances like that.

On the other hand, if the Yanks don’t intend to use Rasner, why would they keep him?  Is he there only in case two or more starters suffer injuries?  This team clearly needs a long man given the growing pains of Hughes and Kennedy along with the certainty that Mussina will mix in a clunker every so often.  Can’t the Yanks make do with one less short reliever so that the bullpen doesn’t have to be shredded every time Kennedy gets roughed up or there’s a rain delay of some sort?  Also, as we discussed yesterday, Rasner has at least a decent major league track record and is currently doing very well in AAA.  Even better, as Mike K. pointed out, he’s perfectly lined up for Kennedy’s next start.

What would happen next year, does his innings limitations still apply, meaning in his second season, he would still be limited to 150+ innings in 2009?

I think part of the reason that they have this plan is because they see this specific year as pretty important in his development. The idea is not that Joba can help us win more just in 2008 as a starter than as a reliever, but that he can help us win more in general as a starter than as a reliever. If you believe the latter (which it seems Hank, Cashman and Girardi all do), then you have to follow the plan that makes him a starter. I would think keeping him in the bullpen for the entire year would complicate things.

The funny thing about this argument is that all of the mediots seemingly in the know leave out so many details that make it obvious that the transition from reliever (back) to starter for Joba is not rocket science.

-He was a dominant starter in college and in the minors (though SSS.)
-Pitchers are “stretched out” in spring training by going 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 innings in some order to get their pitch count up.  Somehow, Joba has to do this in the minors instead of with the big club according to some people.
-Hughes has a comparable innings limit as well, no? Seems like there is a silver lining here if Kennedy and Mussina can hold it together, we’ve got 6 starters, two of which are sort of like half a starter with their innings limits.  4 + 2(1/2) = 5.

As for the rain delay - I think it was about 50 minutes and started after the Yankees had batted (so add the time it took them to bat to the time Hughes was dormant).  In this case, I can’t argue with the call to take him out, but if it was closer to 30 min, I say send him back out there some half innings last 30 mins.

I’d rather see Joba stretch out in the majors: have him start a game and go 2 innings, then bring in Hughes or Kennedy to try to finish it.  This will help all their innings limits.  A problem may arise from using a roster spot to have 2 guys that can only pitch on one day though.

I’d like to see him go 3-4 IP occasionally to keep him stretched out for the eventual rotation move.

What do you guys think?

As I’ve stated many times, I think the idea that he needs to be stretched out before he can start is a myth.  He threw 33 pitches last night.  Hughes threw 23.  Phil is going to take his next turn in four days, and they’ll be hoping to get at least 90 pitches out of him.

On May 6, 2003, Johan Santana pitched 2 innings in relief.  He threw 31 pitches.  After two days rest, he made his first start of the season and threw 76 pitches in a five shutout inning outing (and got the win).  He had thrown four innings in relief once (a month earlier).  All of his other appearances were less than three innings.  There’s absolutely no reason Joba couldn’t do the same thing if he were needed (not today or tomorrow of course, but after an appropriate amount of rest).

Having said that, I would stretch Joba out on occasion when the circumstances dictate it, but I don’t think last night was the right time.  I’m thinking more along the lines of a high-leverage fifth or sixth inning situation where you’d bring him to get the heat of the order with runners on, and then leave him in for a couple more frames.  And if a miracle occurs and the starting rotation solidifies for this year without Joba, then he should be used that way more frequently in the second half so he can throw something closer to 110 innings instead of 85, putting him in a better position to start for most of next year.

Indeed.  I see no reason why Joba cannot stretch out in the majors.

The funny thing about this argument is that all of the mediots seemingly in the know leave out so many details that make it obvious that the transition from reliever (back) to starter for Joba is not rocket science.

Wait a second.  Are you saying that they should present a balanced view of the pros and cons instead of suppressing any facts that run counter to their predetermined conclusions?  Sort of like political analysts?

BTW, Albaladejo and Ramirez were optioned on April 18th and 19th respectively.  I don’t think they can come back up until the 28th and 29th unless someone goes on the DL (or the bereavement list, I guess).

Are we sure that Rasner is out of options?  Did he start 2007 in SWB, or were his two minor league appearances a rehab assignment?

I don’t care about pitchers…

Melky has 4 HRs, which is half of his PECOTA 50% projection, ZIPs has him at 12. He’s still not hitting a lot of XBHs, he’s only got 6 of them so far, but whatever, this start is huge for a player like him. 9 BB to 10 Ks!!! Awesome stuff so far.

Answering my own question, they did use an option on Rasner last year before he got hurt.  So he is out of options and that probably has something to do with him not getting the call yet.

Retracting my answer to my own question, I don’t think Rasner burned an option in 2005 with the Nats.  He was a September call-up and those don’t count, right?

I agree that Melky’s start is extremely encouraging.  He has proved capable of hitting somewhere along the lines of .290/.360/.450 for two or three month stints but never for an entire season.  If he keeps up the pace, the Yanks will really have found something.

“I don’t really care if it costs them a playoff spot this year.  If the bullpen is that poor, they’re not going to do anything in the playoffs anyway.  I’m sick of the one-and-done playoff experiences”

This doesn’t sound like a fan that waited for 13 years for Mattingly to even know what the postseason feels like nor one that waited from 1964-1976 for postseason activity.

Having experienced those droughts,I will never ever take getting to the postseason for granted. Ask too the last few persons who can remember when the Royals were there.

I agree as well:  Joba’s transition to the rotation doesn’t require a trip to the minors.  j and MC make the case perfectly, and it’s frustrating how so many in the media can’t seem to wrap their heads around the plan, which isn’t really that complicated.

Melky has 4 HRs, which is half of his PECOTA 50% projection, ZIPs has him at 12. He’s still not hitting a lot of XBHs, he’s only got 6 of them so far, but whatever, this start is huge for a player like him. 9 BB to 10 Ks!!! Awesome stuff so far.

Melky looks really good so far.  At 23, he’s established himself as a major league center fielder, and offensively, I can see him developing into a consistent .300/.400/.500 kind of guy.  Like Abreu without the stolen bases.  Not sure what’s up with his arm so far, though.  It seems like his throws are tailing on him this year, and I don’t think he has any assists yet.

As per Chad Jennings, Trenton’s manager Tony Franklin claims David Robertson is “on the fast track” and doesn’t expect him to remain in AA for very long.  If the Yanks call up two pitchers to replace Bruney and Farnsworth, perhaps Robertson will wind up in AAA.  Somehow, though, I envision one pitcher being called up along with Shelley Duncan so that the Yanks can maintain their three catcher security blanket.

Ohlendorf threw 49 pitches last night.  He’s probably not available until Sunday.  Chamberlain won’t pitch tonight, and Farnsworth can’t even be used to mop up for a few days whether he goes on the DL or not.  If they really feel that they need to keep Moeller a while longer, they should send Ohlendorf down so they can bring up at least two pitchers who will actually be available for the next two games.

Hughes looked really good.  It’s annoying, but the right decision was made.  I still don’t see what the Yankee brass sees in Ohlendorf.

“.300/.400/.500” for Melky is awfully optimistic.  That’s a superstar (.900 OPS in CF).  I could see him managing an .800 OPS.  Something like .280/.350/.450.  Maybe.  I like Melky a lot, but he really hasn’t shown anything to suggest .300/.400/.500 is possible.

“It seems like his throws are tailing on him this year, and I don’t think he has any assists yet.”

I think that he has not any assists because they are not running on him.

You don’t see what the Yankee brass sees in a guy who throws 96 and has a good slider?  Ohlendorf will have his bad days, but will almost certainly be a decent middle reliever. 

As for Melky, he needs to up his game offensively because chances are he will not remain in CF long term.  If Gardner develops some power this year to go along with his all around game, the Yanks might be tempted to put him in CF for 2009.  More likely, however, is that Austin Jackson, takes over in center in 2010 or perhaps sooner.

This doesn’t sound like a fan that waited for 13 years for Mattingly to even know what the postseason feels like nor one that waited from 1964-1976 for postseason activity.

fixed?

Would it really have mattered if they missed the plaoyffs one or 2 of those years?

Yes.  It really would have mattered.  The regular seasons would have been a lot less enjoyable.  That counts, too.

For a team with the Yankees’ resources, there’s really no need to miss the playoffs for a year or two in order to be better in the future.  The same is true of the Red Sox and the Mets, and for that matter, the Dodgers.

still </em></em> a problem?

Oh wow, pwned and preinterpreted anyway.

Thanks YM. A graduate student who knows how to fix things rather than debate them is worth a great deal indeed.

sorry.  my bad

“You don’t see what the Yankee brass sees in a guy who throws 96 and has a good slider?  Ohlendorf will have his bad days, but will almost certainly be a decent middle reliever.”

Well, Farnsworth once threw 98mph and “had a good slider.” 

Ohlendorf’s fastball appears to be quite hittable, notwithstanding its speed.  Isn’t it supposed to sink?  I haven’t seen that.  His slider… he threw it for strikes and the ChiSox simply took it for the most part (and sat on the fastball to come), so that may be evidence of its goodness.  On the other hand, its placement in the strikezone was worrisome to me (mostly thigh-high down the middle).

Now I’ll grant that it’s still early and it’s entirely possible that Ohlendorf could improve and turn out to be quite useful.  I’m simply saying I haven’t seen what others see in him.  Nearly every time I watch him, he stinks.

So, Cowboy Popup, are we still holding the “Melky > Ellsbury” party line then?

The italicized environment was fun while it lasted. I like angular representation of people’s comments.

“.300/.400/.500” for Melky is awfully optimistic.

Agreed.  I was absolutely being optimistic with that statement.

I could see him managing an .800 OPS.  Something like .280/.350/.450.  Maybe.

I don’t know.  His current career line is .277/.343/.396, so he’s only about 60 points of slugging away from that line right now, as a 23 year-old.  60 points of slugging is significant, but one could see him adding that this year the way he’s started the season.

he really hasn’t shown anything to suggest .300/.400/.500 is possible.

I disagree:
 
July-August of ‘06: .312/.379/.463
June-August of ‘07:  .325/.375/.483
April of ‘08:  .309/.380/.515

Selective endpoints, I know.  But note that two good months in ‘06 became three good months in ‘07, and he’s off to a good start in ‘08.  And we’re talking about his age 21-23 seasons.  There’s certainly no guarantee, but I think there’s plenty to suggest that something in the neighborhood of a .900 OPS is possible…

For a team with the Yankees’ resources, there’s really no need to miss the playoffs for a year or two in order to be better in the future.  The same is true of the Red Sox and the Mets, and for that matter, the Dodgers.

If that really were to happen, baseball would be a terrible sport. You are basically predicting that 50% of playoff spots would be locked permanently.

Luckily, the amount of uncertainty inherent in baseball ensures that it is a very, very unlikely outcome.

i see no reason why Ohlendorf can’t be effective in 1 inning stints.

Ohlendorf has been thrown to the wolves so far.  not really anyone could do about it, b/c they have had some shitty luck so far with the schedule and weather.

Kennedy and Hughes did not help the cause, but some of those bullpen emptying games were ALL weather related.

Hughes was ineffective in KC pitching in the cold and the rain.  the next day was absurd, as they played with inches of puddles on the infield, and Girardi held Kennedy back.  then last night.

none of these games would have been played if the Yankees were playing more than 3 games all season in KC and Chicago.  it’s absurd that they are not returning to those cities for the rest of the season.

that coupled with zero off-days has taxed the pen. 

with any sort of normal April schedule, the yankees could have better absorbed those poor starts.

because they couldn’t, Ohlendorf has taken the brunt of it.

i would love to see what he can do used as a normal set-up man.

Luckily, the amount of uncertainty inherent in baseball ensures that it is a very, very unlikely outcome.

Let’s see, how should I put this….  Duh!

Of course there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty inherent in baseball.  What has that got to do with writing off a season or two if you have the kind of resources that we’re talking about?  If shit happens and your team has an off year, that’s one thing.  But the teams that I mentioned should never have to endure rebuilding.