He’s been injury prone and it’ll be interesting to see how he heals…but it’s enticing to remember that in mid-2006, while still with the Tigers, people were as excited about Sanchez as they were Phil Hughes. So yeah, I’m definitely hopeful he’ll help, and I’d be thrilled if he hit that 35% projection as a reliever.

Yeah, I remember Sanchez was untouchable at the trade deadline in 2006. Kudos to Cashman for picking him up and taking the lumps for a year while he rehabbed.

Lets hope we get a wee bit more mileage outta Sanchez than we did out of Mr. Dotel whom we acquired in similar straits.

If memory serves me, we signed Dotel in 2005 after he’d been in the majors for six years. So, while there are no guarantees about how Sanchez will respond to Tommy John surgery, I think he has better odds than Dotel did. Also, we only saw Dotel for the partial season after he recovered, and as I understand it, it can take a year or so after being able to play again before a TJ patient gets back to form. My guess is that Sanchez is with the Yankees for a longer haul than that, regardless of his results this coming season.

So, I hope so too, Thurm, and I think the odds are better than with Dotel that we’ll get what we hope for.

“Humberto Sanchez Humberto Sanchez”

Is that “Humberto ‘Sanchez Humberto’ Sanchez”?  Like he’s actually from somewhere (e.g. Asia) where they use Eastern order for names?

rilke-

I think it points to the proper nickname for the kid: Humberto Humberto

Nabokov references - always hip!

Wouldn’t that make him Humberto Humbertovich?

Lets hope we get a wee bit more mileage outta Sanchez than we did out of Mr. Dotel whom we acquired in similar straits.

I think Cory raises a good point about Sanchez’s relative age and the fact that Yankees have his rights for the next six years.  I think (although I’m not certain) that the younger you are, the better your chances of a successful recovery from TJ surgery.  Of course that could just be wishful thinking too.

I’d be thrilled if he hit that 35% projection as a reliever.

I’d be thrilled if he hit the 20% projection.  He’d still be a useful piece out of the back-end of the bullpen, and may be a guy that could throw 3 inning stints.  That would be up to the Yankees to determine if that puts him at risk of further injury, but he’s got the endurance for it.

I think (although I’m not certain) that the younger you are, the better your chances of a successful recovery from TJ surgery

I think ANY surgery this is true.  I have no doubt that at least I’ll see Sanchez sometime this year (since I should get to 8-10 games at AAA this year).  I expect everyone else will, too.

Hopefully Sanchez will recover as well as a certain other Yankee reliever who had TJ surgery as a young man (around the same age as Sanchez, I believe).

Most of the mentions regarding Humberto have been as a reliever, I did not know that he projects so well as a starter. I am thinking that 2009 will be a very good year for the Yankees.

“Wouldn’t that make him Humberto Humbertovich?”

If this is a reference to Akakii Akakievich, the main character in Nikolai Gogol’s short story “The Overcoat” about the soul-crushing nature of pre-Soviet Russian bureaucracy, then I am equal parts impressed and concerned.

My worry with Sanchez is not that he won’t regain the form he showed before TJ surgery, but that the traditional lag between the return of arm strength and the return of command following the rehab makes him a poor candidate for high-leverage late-game appearances this season.  My understanding is that pitchers can expect to wait a minimum of 12 months for arm strength, and more like 18-24 months to regain command.  We watched power bullpen arms struggle with walks much of last season, and I’m not anxious to see more of the same.

Also: I could’ve sworn I was already registered here.

My understanding is that pitchers can expect to wait a minimum of 12 months for arm strength, and more like 18-24 months to regain command.  We watched power bullpen arms struggle with walks much of last season, and I’m not anxious to see more of the same.

Mine too. He has a high ceiling and is under the Yankees control for several years, but he does seem to get hurt. I would prefer to see them continue to develop him as a starter in Scranton in 2008 with the hope of promoting him in the second half of the 2009 season. He needs to throw pitches to his control back. It seems logical that he would get his control back more quickly starting than he would as a reliever. If he recovers quickly there will be plenty of opportunities to bring him up when someone gets hurt.

I think (although I’m not certain) that the younger you are, the better your chances of a successful recovery from TJ surgery.

Acquiring Sanchez knowing he needed TJ surgery and then drafting Brackman knowing he would need it as well says to me that the Yankees are comfortable with the risks associated with young guys coming back from TJ. But you’re right, nothings for certain.

Acquiring Sanchez knowing he needed TJ surgery and then drafting Brackman knowing he would need it as well says to me that the Yankees are comfortable with the risks associated with young guys coming back from TJ. But you’re right, nothings for certain.

A top prospect recovering from TJ surgery is a risky bet with a high potential payoff. They should be looked at as long term projects. The Yankees have the money to stockpile a bunch of them and give them time to rehab. I would think that their is a learning curve and that the organization could develop a competitive advantage around this strategy if they stick with it.

SG, could you check the reliever #s for symmetry around 50%?  I see e.g. the ERA+ for HH starting varying about linearly (10 pts/15%) but for relieving it looks very nonlinear - basically he has little downside relative to 50% as a reliever according to the above.  Ditto BB/9.

I thought it was was an Uncle Vanya reference.
Bhutros Bhutros Chekov Ibsen Lloyd Weber, now thats a rockin quintet.

Here’s a different forecasting question—according to Goldman, PECOTA likes Melky long-term.

1.  Anyone here a B-Pro member who can share the forecast?

2.  Anyone know what PECOTA’s track record is like forecasting careers, as opposed to just the next year?

I guess that’s two questions.

Old Thurm, you surprise me every day.  You’re a fan of the serious drama too?  Mrs. Thurm must spend all day bragging about you to her friends at the nail salon.

“A real Rennaissance man, my Thurmy.”

Come on Fgas, didja ever hear those lads do Summertime Blues ? Fender, Marshall , madness.  Brilliant stuff.

That Chekov guy can plot a mean course too.

Screw Chekov, Lloyd Webber is the Plotmaster.

There’s also some issue about the ER for the reliever stats. Two identicalERtotals give different ERA’s, and it seems like the ERA’s don’t line up with the ER and IP.  It’s probably just a typo, but if it’s somewhere in the spreadsheet formula, it might need to get fixed for future things.

rilkefan and DaPuj, thanks for catching the bugs in my spreadsheet. I messed up my formulas when pro-rating to relief innings but I’ve fixed it now.

Sanchez’s 35% relief ERA should be 4.22, BB/9 should be 3.7 (baseline should actually be 3.4, not 3.7).  His 20% projection should be 4.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9.

Yossarian, you made my day/week/month/2008 dropping Gogol, though I prefer the trials of Collegiate Assessor Kovalev myself.

Here’s a different forecasting question—according to Goldman, PECOTA likes Melky long-term.

I guess that’s two questions.

PECOTA’s not publically available yet, so Goldman’s probably looking at the internal version.

Looking at Melky’s 10 most similar players at BB Reference shows three HOFers.  PECOTA doesn’t use the same similarity scores as BB Ref, but I assume they’re close enough that it’s giving Melky a rosy potential outlook.

It could happen, but this year will be a key one I think.  He needs to make a leap forward, especially in his power numbers.

Oh, and as far as forecasting careers, I don’t think they’ve been doing it for more than the last couple of years so there’s no track record to analyze, but I think it’s just about impossible to do (even though I am doing it too).

Thanks SG.  I thought PECOTA had been around for at least 5 years, and don’t they do a 5-year forecast?  Of course I’m sure they tweak their formula so I guess there’s no way to really judge it yet.

Thanks for the B-Ref info, I’ll check it out.  Last time I looked there was no “most similar’ for Melky, though it was months ago…

“Looking at Melky’s 10 most similar players at BB Reference shows three HOFers.”

Ok, Clemente’s a nice comp, but the other two are from the 1910s…