I think $7 million a year is the going rate for .280/.320/.400 hitters with horrific defense.

Are you saying Cano’s defense is horrific? I thought it was at least above average. Didn’t you post some ZR numbers back in December that supported that, or did I miss something?

I think $7 million a year is the going rate for .280/.320/.400 hitters with horrific defense.

Are you sure?  Shouldn’t you check with some really smart baseball analysts first?  You know, like maybe those guys at that Mariners blog?

did I miss something?

Yes.  The joke.  I’ll let SG do the re-telling, since I’ve already had my fun and he deserves to enjoy it.

I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.

I’ve seen Cano play a lot, and I’m not even sure he’d be a productive Triple-A player. Let’s start with his defense; it’s brutal. He has terrible footwork and simply lacks any kind of instincts around the bag. There’s no way you want him playing up the middle. He might have the raw speed to not be awful in left field, but that’s about as kind as I can be regarding his glovework. Offensively, he’s a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake. Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front. He’s mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall. To add insult to injury, he’s also a terrible baserunner.

In his prime, I think he could hit .280/.320/.400 while playing awful defense. Yipee.

-David Cameron, February 20, 2005.

That really should be crammed down Cameron’s throat at every opportunity.  AFAIK, he’s never admitted that he was wrong.  I’m not saying that a scouting report from me would be any better than one from Cameron, but at least I don’t pretend to be an expert evaluator of young baseball talent.  I know a lot of us lean heavily toward the stats-geek perspective, but I believe in giving the other side its due.  And it would seem that there is something more to scouting that just watching a bunch of games.

AFAIK, he’s never admitted that he was wrong.

That’s my beef.  One of the most annoying things about many bloggers is their failure to admit when they’re wrong.  We CAN’T know everything, but a lot of people sure enjoy pretending that they do.

One of the most annoying things about many bloggers is their failure to admit when they’re wrong

That’s one of the nice things about John Sickles, that - IIRC - he was also down on Cano AND Melky, but has admitted that he was wrong about both (more so about Cano who is a star).  You definitely have to respect a person that knows what he is talking about 80% of the time, and is willing to admit to the fact that he was wrong about the other 20%.

It’s pay now or later for Robinson Cano Robinson Cano . The Yankees New York Yankees

Do they get two Cano’s for the price of one? That’s a good deal for the Yankees New York Yankees.

I’m pleased.  If I were to get a Yankees jersey, it would be a Cano jersey.

And yes, props to Sickels for saying “hey, I was wrong about that guy.”  There’s no shame in it.  Everybody misses.  Kevin Goldstein at BP was wrong about Dustin Pedroia (I bring it up because KG mentioned it in his most recent column, and came up with a theory as to *why* he missed on Pedroia - which is surely more useful than pretending he wasn’t wrong or somesuch).

Cross off Morneau if you thought he might be the Yankee long term answer at first. He inked a six year deal today with the Twins. They also extended Cuddeyer.  This is the first really positive move they have made for their fans except for the trade with the Rays.  It’s possible too that Santana might re-think what has already been offered him. Doesn’t look like NY or Boston are that gung ho for a term of five or more years particularly after trading chips to have the right. My understanding is that the Twins offered him $80 million over four years.

Perhaps many are still considering the Braves Texiera. Possible he may go to FA status, but he’s got a certain agent that may be a little anti-Yankee by then. Who knows, maybe the answer will be little known Juan Miranda.

The Nationals have Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson, and too many outfielders to move Young to left. Let’s hope DY has a huge spring and Nick the Stick goes on the market.

I think this deal does lock in considerable savings for Cano throughout his arbitration years.

After accounting for salary inflation, likely progression, risk, and the arbitration discount I have Cano’s numbers for years 2-6 at $4mm, $7mm, $12mm, and $16mm. A likely FA deal at that point would be around 6 years/$140mm. The two option years at $13mm and $15mm offer considerable discounts as well.

Very good deal for the Yanks.

re:#11 The Morneau signing is NOT a positive for Twins fans, it was an absolutely terrible deal, one of the worst of the offseason (which is saying a lot).

I just watched Ring Of Fire-The Emile Griffith Story.
I could not turn away. It was very good. I had read about the Benny Paret,EG fight,but had never seen the footage. It was incredible.Even with early 60’s low def. How Parets corner let that go on is criminal. How the ref let it go on is insane.
The the thing is, in real time Griffith hit him dead on 12 to 18 times in 5 seconds and Paret didn’t really fall until the ref called it.Raining right hands. Brutal.  The corner and the ref could kind of be forgiven if not for the beating Paret took in his previous bout.
EG had some fast frikkin hands in his youth. I saw him near the end when the tank was close to dry.
Good film on many levels. Breslin,Hamil and some Normie Mails stuff too.
Have any of yuze guys seen it? 2005 I believe it was released.

i have seen it thoim. it’s an amazing study. there’s also a slightly less captivating program regarding ray mancini’s dispatching of duk koo kim—- but it was Kim’s guff that did him in, not his corner and not the ref. a true fighter he was.

to me though, meldrick taylor’s up there as one of boxing’s greatest tragedies. sad case. frukkin Steele.

later buddddddz

Cross off Morneau if you thought he might be the Yankee long term answer at first.

Did anyone think Morneau was the Yankees’ long-term answer at 1B?  I doubt that they’d have made a big push for him if he became a FA.  I’d stop short of Bobby’s assessment of the deal, but this guy is not an elite hitter by any means.  He’s a solid player who just happened to win an MVP award in a year when he was the third or fourth best player on his own team.  OTOH, 6/80 isn’t exactly a superstar contract in the current environment, and Morneau is insanely popular with the fan base.  All in all, I don’t think the Twins will regret this one too much.

It’s possible too that Santana might re-think what has already been offered him. Doesn’t look like NY or Boston are that gung ho for a term of five or more years particularly after trading chips to have the right. My understanding is that the Twins offered him $80 million over four years.

That’s on top of the 13M he’ll make this year, so it would keep him in Twin-stripes though 2012.  I would think that some reachable incentives and a vesting option or two could get it done.  Maybe throw in an opt-out if he’s worried about the team not remaining competitive, although signing these other guys should help in that regard.  To be honest, I kind of hope the Twins do keep him long-term.  With revenue sharing and a new stadium, they can afford him easily, and I’m really tired of hearing all the whiny small-market crap.

After accounting for salary inflation, likely progression, risk, and the arbitration discount I have Cano’s numbers for years 2-6 at $4mm, $7mm, $12mm, and $16mm. A likely FA deal at that point would be around 6 years/$140mm.

I’m pretty sure that those last two arb years would be records, and much as I love Robby, I’m not sure I see him breaking the bank in salary arbitration.  If his agent is taking 4/30, it’s a pretty good indication that he’s valuing those years at something closer to 10 and 12.  Anyway, it’s always fun to make up numbers, but arbitration awards are not guaranteed and long-term contracts are.  Pre-FA players sign these deals because the risk of injury and/or decline is transferred from the player to the club.  Teams are willing to take on the risk mostly for the cost certainty rather than the potential cost savings.  The Yankees haven’t done these kinds of deals in the past because they’ve never rally cared about cost certainty.  The alienation factor is way overblown.  Going year-to-year didn’t result in losing Williams or Jeter or Rivera or Posada when they hit free agency.  You could argue that they alienated Pettitte, but that was after he’d already signed one long-term deal with the Yanks.

Those numbers are not “made up”. There are based on a projection of value (~4 WAR) which is based on typical aging curves and Robbie’s past production. The next step is projecting the value of a Win by accounting for inflation. The next step is to account for the fact that players in arbitration only receive a certain percentage of their free agent value. Those numbers would be nominal “records” but after accounting for inflation, those figures would be well below Cabrera’s arbitration salaries (assuming he breaks the Year 3 “record”, which is very likely).

As for the Morneau deal, he is projected to be about 2.5 WAR next year, which puts his free agent value at around $11mm. And the Twins are paying him more than this per year and he was not even a free agent. Terrible.

This is smart, and what I have been hoping the Yankees would do. Now to do the same with innings-eater Wang.