“.274/.359/.407 for AA Trenton as a 21 year old.”

Does that project to .274/.359/.407 for NYY as a 24 year old, or what?

Good question.  I don’t have my MLE and projection stuff handy but I can take a stab at it when I get home.

Jackson had a great second half last year, so I wouldn’t take those numbers as any sort of indication of his talent level just yet.

He’s been much better in May than April as well.

April: .268/.359/.348
May: .280/.371/.490

When looking at a young player’s performance I tend to consider selective end point trends like this as possible evidence of development, far more than I would when looking at an established player.

Too bad Tabata sucks, but he’s only 19.

I look forward to seeing Jackson develop (how’s he hit in June? And where do you get minor league splits?), unless Tabata turns it around, he’s the only real hope for an impact bat out of the farm system until Montero is ready in 3-4 years.

You can get his stats from milb.com.  Not so good in June so far.

Matt Carson has been doing an excellent job in the minors so far, and I understand he’s a good defender.  I had the pleasure of seeing him hit is first AAA home run last week, and it was a shot.  Don’t know if he has finally figured out how to use his talent, or if this is just a blip.

And where do you get minor league splits?

minorleaguebaseball.com has them.  If you use Firefox, go there and right click on the search window, then select the option to ‘Add a keyword for this search’.  Name it whatever, then put in milb for the keyword.  Then, you can look up anyone by just typing in milb last name in your URL entry field.

And I found an MLE spreadsheet on my work laptop.  Here’s an extremely quick and dirty progression based on his current MLE and the typical aging patterns as discussed here.

<u>Using entire 2008 line</u>
Age 21: .247/.318/.360 (current MLE)
Age 22: .252/.323/.365
Age 23: .257/.328/.370
Age 24: .262/.334/.377
Age 25: .267/.340/.384
Age 26: .272/.345/.392
Age 27: .277/.352/.399

<u>Using just May 2008</u>
Age 21: .252/.329/.433 (MLE for May split)
Age 22: .257/.334/.438
Age 23: .262/.339/.443
Age 24: .267/.345/.452
Age 25: .272/.350/.461
Age 26: .277/.356/.469
Age 27: .282/.363/.478

These numbers aren’t really very meaningful, since:

A)We really don’t have enough data to gauge Jackson’s true talent right now
B)Jackson’s true talent is changing as he develops

282/.363/.478

With all of the caveats you mentioned…if he is as good defensively as his coaches say he is, and with the SB he will get, that kind of season would probably put him in the MVP discussion.  A long way away with a lot of unknowns, but we can dream can’t we?

Is an 0.84 OPS MVP-quality even for a fine CFer?  Vernon Wells at 27: .303/.357/.542 (OPS+: 129) was good for 22nd in the MVP vote.  17 SB, 4 CS.

I’m not casting aspersions on Wells, of course.

Is an 0.84 OPS MVP-quality even for a fine CFer?

that depends. 

if he predicts in ST that his team will make the playoffs and then on the last day of the season, they squeak into the playoffs, he will be a lock.

it doesn’t matter what anyone else in the league does.

Is an 0.84 OPS MVP-quality even for a fine CFer?

It’d be about 18 runs better than an average CF.  A typical MVP is usually about 40-50 runs better than the averge player at their position.  If he was a +20 defender and a +5 baserunner, then he’d have a statistical case to be in the MVP mix depending on what others are doing. 

As far as being an MVP in the eyes of the actual voters, I’d think a .300 average, 20 HRs, 100 RBI and 30 steals would have a Gold Glove caliber CF in the MVP discussion depending on the quality of their team and who else may steal votes from them.

All too soon to tell with Jackson of course, but he’s holding his own at AA at 21 and getting better, and has the scouting tools and athleticism to portent further development.

Incidentally, according to zone rating it’s very rare for a CF to be better than +15 defensively in a season, only the following players have hit that mark since 1987.

Re: AJax and MVP…I think it would get him the discussion, but I for sure don’t think he would win.  The numbers SG put up in #12 looks a lot like Rickey Henderson type numbers, with (a lot) less steals.  But of course better defense as well.  So…people he would get votes, maybe even a top-10.

Incidentally, according to zone rating it’s very rare for a CF to be better than +15 defensively in a season, only the following players have hit that mark since 1987.

Curious, what was Bernie Williams’s best?

people he would

started writing one thing, finished a different one, become barely legible.

+10 in 1995 and 1998.

Speaking of 1998 Bernie, he just made a nice diving catch on Yankees Classics.

Thanks.  His peak was about where I expected it, and I knew he was bad at the end of his career, but I didn’t expect the numbers to jump around so much.  Or for him to have declined that much as early as he did.

Speed peaks in most players at ages 24-25, and defense does as well for the most part, with the exception of first base and players moving to new positions I believe.  So his defensive decline fits in the typical defensive aging curve I think, although like you said, with a lot of volatility.

Is that volatility typical?  Is it a sample size issue?

Or for him to have declined that much as early as he did.

Funny, I was about to say I’m surprised it wasn’t worse.  I really loved having Bernie as a Yankee but found him very painful to watch those last 4-5 years.  I don’t blame him; he really should have been DHing, especially in ‘04.

Billy Wagner has blew the save.  Again.  Enter Sandman, my foot!

Me type English good.

Comment # 6 - thanks for the link.

I just found out Austin Jackson is black.

Is that volatility typical?  Is it a sample size issue?

Standard deviation on a CF RS is around 3.5 so Bernie’s more volatile than most.  But any single season defensive # will have sample size issues and could be impacted by:
1) Change in positioning
2) Distribution of chances.  Zone rating weights all chances the same but you could have a player get a lot of easy or difficult chances in a single season
3) Health issues impacting their ability
4) Other stuff I’m not thinking of

Those tend to even out over time, so if we look at Bernie in say 3 year slices, using a 3/2/1 weight, here’s how the shape of Bernie’s defensive ability may have looked.

1993: 0
1994: 2
1995: 6
1996: -1
1997: -1
1998: 4
1999: -4
2000: -6
2001: -7
2002: -13
2003: -15
2004: -15
2005: -10
2006: -4

That’s little closer to the shape of what we’d expect a typical defensive aging curve to look like.

Mets lose.  PagsRags can breathe a little easier.

I remember getting into an argument with someone on BTF over the comparability of Rivera to guys like Wagner.  Whoever it was claimed that Wagner was among the best closers in the game today, with Mo only being slightly better overall as a big league closer.

I’m not positive but I don’t remember Mo ever blowing three consecutive save opportunities.

Mariano was rather bad last year for a stretch.  He’s probably my favorite Yankee, but let’s not forget he’s had his share of troubles.  Do you, for instance, recall the walk off 3 run HR to Marco Scutaro last season or the May game against the Red Sox where Coco Crisp of all people hit a triple off him?  The HR to Jose Guillen on an 0-2 pitch hurt as well - although that was not a save opportunity.  Mariano is probably the best and most consistent reliever any of us will ever see but he’s not infallible.

No doubt, we have all experienced WWWMWs.  But the Scutaro incidents are few and far between for the most part.

“Mets lose.  PagsRags can breathe a little easier.”

He can still beat his ‘Brian Cashman let Carlos Pena go’ dead horse.

Indeed, but Wagner has generally been quite good for the Mets this season and in his career in general.  He has a career WHIP of 1.011 in 13 plus seasons.  That’s hard to beat.

I love listing players like above, so I can play “name that player!”

kaplega01 - this is the one who surprised me the most.

Hey, did y’all see the Milton Bradley story, where he raced up to confront a Twins announcer after a game? Bradley is definitely a weird dude, but he does seem to get some extra shit, and I can’t help but think a lot of it has to do with the color of his skin. Josh Hamilton and Rick Ankiel sure are lucky to be white dudes.

Billy Wagner is in the conversation with Mo, if you look at them based on seasonal ERA+

Bradley is definitely a weird dude, but he does seem to get some extra shit, and I can’t help but think a lot of it has to do with the color of his skin. Josh Hamilton and Rick Ankiel sure are lucky to be white dudes.

I don’t think race has anything to do with it.  Bradley is a pretty confrontational guy.  His mouth gets him in trouble quite a bit.  Hamilton and Ankiel’s problems stem from very different areas.

I’m going to steer a middle course and say race has SOMETHING to do with it.  Bradley has serious anger issues and his problems are of his own making.  But I think in pointing out that Hamilton’s issues are different, you are pointing at what is part of the problem—why drag Bradley into a discussion of Hamilton?  Clearly just to put Bradley down.  Why put Bradley down?  I think it has to do with prejudice.  A more apropos comparison for Bradley would be Ty Cobb—a terribly angry man who was also a great ballplayer, but that would be demeaning the white guy.

I dunno, Jonathan, he may be confrontational, but look at the most recent incident.

It came about because the Royals announcer was praising Josh Hamilton’s comeback while denigrating Bradley, who has not done ANYthing negative this season, and yet his white teammate is praised because he stopped taking drugs but Bradley gets shit for, what, not being nice enough in Ryan Lefebvre’s estimation?

He says that Bradley has not “accounted for his mistakes,” what the heck does THAT mean? Bradley has apologized for his past transgressions, he’s taken anger management, he’s produced at a high level for Texas and drawn praise by management and his teammates, and yet he has to “account for his mistakes?” What a ridiculous load of crap by Lefebvre.

Oh, sorry, I meant to note that the “accounted for his mistakes” thing was put out there as compared to how Hamilton HAD done so, in Lefebvre’s estimation.

Hughes out until August apparently.

  A more apropos comparison for Bradley would be Ty Cobb—a terribly angry man who was also a great ballplayer, but that would be demeaning the white guy.

Eh, Cobb got loads of crap from the media in his time (and he still does).  Same with Ted Williams (let us not forget his spitting episode).  However, Williams greatness on the field far surpasses his negative personality traits and comparing him to Bradley would be silly.  Yet, he had his issues as well and paid for them.  Same for Cobb but he was also a much better player than Bradley and I think that overrides the negatives.

I really don’t think race has anything to do with it.  But that’s just me.  Bradley does not have a great public image and its of his own doing.

If you want a perfect counterpart, John Rocker is your man.  His anger problems were well documented and he took loads of negative media coverage for it; his being white did not temper it one bit.

I didn’t understand the above discussion until the 2nd paragraph of [37] - [33] might have noted the relevance of Hamilton - seemed like [36] was a complaint about the commenters above.  So I’m happy to be straightened out.

Rocker was angry and racist, though - I haven’t seen anything evil from MB, and I take it he’s been doing fine this year.  It’s pretty rough on him if he’s the example of unrepentant bad behaviour forever if in fact he’s been repentant and a good guy for a while - and maybe incidentally maybe not is black.

I think Bradley is slightly nuts, slightly misunderstood, and I wish he played for the Yankees.

and maybe incidentally maybe not is black.

I read this as “maybe is not black” and was interested in this theory. 

Oh, and I agree with Schteeve, 43.

I just want to note that since SG wrote his ill-fated “WOE no more” post, Yankee offense has been terrible.  You’d better start thinking of an anti-jinx, SG!

I actually see a lot of similarity between drug addiction, poor anger management, and whatever it is that happened to Ankiel: a psychiatrist would see each of them as possible symptoms of, and here’s where it gets technical, “crazy”.  Schteeve has it right: MB is totally nuts and probably has about as much control of himself as Josh Hamilton does/did when he had a needle in hand.  I totally see MB’s getting shit on as racism.  True, he’s made an ugly bed for himself.  But he seems to know he’s crazy and actually tries to help himself and make amends.  It’s that awareness of himself and contrition that the media studiously avoids.

Pete A. with updates galore:

UPDATE, 8:46 p.m.: Phil Hughes had another bone scan. He will start a throwing program in two weeks. So that’s basically the end of June. We could see him in mid to late August assuming all goes well.

Remember Jonathan Albaladejo? Turns out he has a stress fracture in his elbow in addition to his other issues. He’s done for the season.

Too bad about Albie, hopefully he can recover and be effective next season.  And good news about Hughes.

My bet:  Hughes September 10.

Frog @ 48. Wishful thinking? Last year Hughes injured himself worse during rehab. All bets are off with him, until he can prove he isn’t breakable.

I liked Pettitte better when he was on HGH.