It seems like a lot of us have moved from a ‘just buy him’ to ‘make smart moves with the money’ philosophy from 2005 to today, but I hope that’s not applied here. The Yankees rarely have a shot at top tier talent in the draft, and so, they need to leverage their resources where they can to make up for it. Likewise for the Red Sox. I would really like for them to grab this guy.

Having said that…

I’m fine with something like 4 years, $20 million but I think it will take a lot more than that.

From what I’ve read, I don’t think this kid is as polished as Strasburg.  Doesn’t Strasburg have solid off-speed pitches and command thereof? 

This kid throws really hard and is a lefty.  Other than that, as far as I can tell he’s pretty raw. 

How about $25MM?  POOMA, of course.

If George was still calling the shots, Chapman might be rushed to the MLs, and signing him would be riskier than it otherwise needed to be. Hal will let Cash develop Chapman the right way, so if they think his upside warrants the money and/or they don’t want the RS to get him, they’ll sign him.

I don’t know if the Strasburg contract is a “good parable” or not, but if we’re going to make any comparisons, we might as well all know what the Strassburg contract is:

Stephen Strasburg rhp
4 years/$15.1M (2009-12)

  * 4 years/$15.1M (2009-12)
      o signed Major League contract with Washington 8/17/09
      o $7.5M signing bonus
        (paid in 3 installments of $2.5M, 9/1/09, 1/10/10, 1/10/11)
      o 09:$0.4M (pro-rated), 10:$2M, 11:$2.5M, 12:$3M

I don’t think Matsuzaka is a good comp either.  Regardless of where you rank the Japanese leagues relative to North America, he’s still a guy who had an impressive multi-year track record in a professional league.

Finally, I’m not sure just how polished Strassburg is either.  My Cavs drummed him out of the CWS after all.

If the Yankees do sign Chapman, I’d prefer that they not give him a major league contract.  They’ve got more than enough guys on the 40-man roster who aren’t ready for MLB as it is, and his contract won’t count for luxury tax if it’s a minor league deal, no matter how big the signing bonus is.

“If the Yankees do sign Chapman, I’d prefer that they not give him a major league contract.”

Then you prefer that they don’t sign him.

If you’re looking to save money when going after top-tier talent, you’re most likely going to miss out on it.

Imagine, for example, how much better off the Sox would have been had they shelled out a little extra money for Teixeira instead of trying to nickel-and-dime him. They likely wouldn’t have needed to trade some of their other talent for Victor Martinez (though they still would/should have, as that was a great deal for them). They wouldn’t even have to think about trading most of their top-tier talent for Adrian Gonzalez. That $10 million they ‘saved’ could easily cost them much, much more.

So, think about that.

The contract I’ve heard Chapman compared to was Contreras’s, 4/$32M. 

I don’t see how they can get Chapman w/o giving him a ML contract, unless they’re going to hand him a $30M+ bonus on top of the MiL contract.  There are arguments for doing that (no 40-man, no luxury tax on the $30M, easier to trade since contract is ML minimum when he’s on the roster), and arguments against (even for Yanks $30M in one payment is a lot, media backlash).  Though bonus could be deferred.

I didn’t say anything about saving money.  I just want to save a roster spot.  There isn’t any rule that says once you pay somebody x dollars, it has to be a major league deal.

If the Yankees really want to leverage their financial advantage in a case like this, they can offer a much bigger signing bonus than anyone could match and pay it all up front instead of pro-rating it.  The only concession I’d ask from Chapman in return is that it not be a major league contract.

If The Yankees offer $20M up front and a split contract, and the next best offer is Strassburg’s contract, is Chapman going to pass up all that extra cash just because he wants the team to burn up his options faster?

If The Yankees offer $20M up front and a split contract, and the next best offer is Strassburg’s contract, is Chapman going to pass up all that extra cash just because he wants the team to burn up his options faster?

Maybe.  It’s a risk for both sides.  From Chapman’s (agents) point of view, it’s not only burning the options, it is putting pressure on the team to get him to the majors faster, which gets him to arbitration (and FA faster).  They want him hitting FA when he’s in his 20’s, not 30’s.  Of course, just b/c he’s on the 40-man earning a ton of $$‘s doesn’t mean whatever team he’s on will move him to the majors faster than the Yankees would if he’s a minor-league player.  But that’s the gamble he may be willing to take.

So what is the premium in bonus $$‘s?  We’ll probably start to find out in a few weeks.

20 millions for 4 years? Come on. Yankees burnt 46 million on Kei Igawa for 4 years.

The contract I’ve heard Chapman compared to was Contreras’s, 4/$32M.

Well, they’re both Cuban, so I guess that settles it.

Seriously, though, what’s the basis for comparing Chapman to anybody?  He’s a very young kid who throws really hard with his left hand and had a couple of dazzling games in the WBC.  One scout will say that he’s a lefthanded Dwight Gooden right now, and another will say that he needs to go to rookie ball.  I haven’t seen anything about his demands since the early “reports” that he was looking for $50-60M (Scare quotes because those were completely unsubstantiated).  And now he’s switched agents.

[10] $26 million of that was the bid to negotiate for his right.

[12] edit: For Igawa’s rights.

20 millions for 4 years? Come on. Yankees burnt 46 million on Kei Igawa for 4 years.

Five years, actually.  And since he was so bad that they were able to outright him to the minors, he’s not taking up a roter spot or costing them luxury tax.

From Chapman’s (agents) point of view, it’s not only burning the options, it is putting pressure on the team to get him to the majors faster, which gets him to arbitration (and FA faster).

This makes perfect sense for an Andrew Brackman-sized contract.  It seems to me that it’s much less of an issue for a guy who’s getting 5-10 times as much money in his first deal.

[12] That’s not really meaningful though isn’t? Pricetag.. that’s it. Who gets the money (in Chapman’s case, he gets all of it, in Igawa’s case, his original team got the $26M) is somewhat inconsequential to the Yankees.

[11] Yeah, all speculation.  And depending on which paper is quoting which unnamed source, you get different amounts.  I could see his agents starting negotiations around Contreras b/c you’re right, they are both Cuban.  Which means they had a similar background for level of competition.  And of course the Hendricks will point to the positives for Contreras (key starter for a World Champion, etc).  The Hendricks could start with the Matsuzaka deal instead, but I don’t think they’ll try that high, at least not out of the gate.

The question of course is if any team is willing to pay that much?  Your guess is as good as mine.

Who gets the money (in Chapman’s case, he gets all of it, in Igawa’s case, his original team got the $26M) is somewhat inconsequential to the Yankees.

Right, but that $26M didn’t count towards the Yankees salary, so no tax on it, and no shiny figure for the MSM/small market teams to complain about.  I think that’s the point that MC and Rich are trying to make.

It seems to me that it’s much less of an issue for a guy who’s getting 5-10 times as much money in his first deal.

What makes sense to us may not make sense to his agents, or to Chapman (who may override his agents views for whatever reason).  Really it’s the difference in $$‘s right?  If it is 1 million more, they may be willing to roll the dice with the ML contract.  If it is $50M more, they’ll take the bonus.  Where it meets in the middle I don’t know.

Matt Thornton says hello.  Is he worth that much?  Maybe.

In one important sense, the $26M that the Yanks paid for Igawa’s rights and the $51M that the Red Sox paid for Matsuzaka’s right are very consequential for the Chapman conversation, since they prove that these organizations have the financial wherewithal to shell out huge lump sums up front (as opposed to the usual pro-rating of bonuses and back-loading of salaries).

[17] Yes, that’s true. But you can basically just fold that into the calculation and talk about in terms of what the Yankees would have to pay. Of course, the rub then becomes that the Yankees have to pay that much extra just to match an offer from, say, the Red Sox, so, yeah, it is an important distinction.

[15] I think your point has some mert, but I also think that if Igawa was cited as a comparable at $46 million, the GM negotiating against Chapman’s agent could point to the fact that posting fee doesn’t count against the payroll for luxury tax purposes (at least I don’t think it does) in order to distinguish the consequences of the two contracts. Of course, the mere fact that they gave Igawa $20 million should strengthen any agent’s bargaining position.

[17] Beat me to it.

Is the Luxury tax still @?  The Yankees could turn a $30 million offer into a $40 offer and actually be saving $2 if they can get a minor league contract.  I would take that deal..

Eh, he’s 21 and never pitched in the bigs. I don’t want to shell out premium tier money on a learning curve. I’m a little skeptical of foreign pitchers and would prefer to see him in the majors for a few years. there’s a chance he’ll be a FA while still young, anyway.

Call me crazy, but I think Teixiera wins the MVP.

You’re crazy.  I’ve had an irrational hope that Jeter pulls it out somehow but even I know there is no real chance.  As a consolation prize I hoped that Teix would play the role of Morneau in the 2006 MVP vote but the difference is Mauer lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG. 

He wins it.  The only question is if anyone else gets a first place vote.

Can votes be stripped if a voter makes a brutal selection? Or are they totally safe?

I’m just thinking the even though the CW is on Mauer, the writers *love* those counting numbers, and Teixeira’s got ‘em.

Teixeira for MVP would be a monumentally bad choice.

606 PA of 365/444/587 170 OPS+ from a C just dominates 707 PA of 292/383/565 149 OPS+ from a 1B.

Mauer had the better season before you even start the positional adjustment.

5 yrs $20m for a guy who “...doesn’t have the command and control of Strasburg, but he could end up being another Randy Johnson. When Randy was drafted, some people said he’d never get it together and be any good. Aroldis is one of those great talents that comes around and you hope he eventually grows up enough to master it.”

Matsuzaka wasn’t the stud everyone thought he’d be. Contreras has been up and down, and mostly down. Pass, pass, pass, on this guy.

[27] Not sure what you mean.  It’s not like the same guys vote for the same awards every year.  Each BBWAA chapter gets to decide who votes for what every year.  I’d guess they just rotate the votes, and I’d also imagine that there’s no accountability.

I’d be shocked if Mauer doesn’t win handily—he’s had 99% of the buzz among the guys who actually get to do the voting.  Don’t know if it will be unanimous though.  That’s pretty rare, and he’s probably not the most popular guy in a place like Detroit.

Mauer had the better season before you even start the positional adjustment.

Of course, this was true in 2006 as well, but he lost out to teammate who wasn’t even the next best player on that team.

[31] The only form of accountability I’ve heard of is when a stupid voters lets it be known how stupidly he voted and he gets bombarded with thousands of e-mails from angry fans. Which I guess I’m ok with .

“...doesn’t have the command and control of Strasburg, but he could end up being another Randy Johnson. When Randy was drafted, some people said he’d never get it together and be any good. Aroldis is one of those great talents that comes around and you hope he eventually grows up enough to master it.”

Who are you quoting there?  Just curious.  Sounds pretty POOHA.

[30]
Two examples do not a persuasive sample size make.
And the whole point is that, while these ‘risks’ exist (I insert the scare quotes because I’m not sure that Matsuzaka-level results would be such a terrible thing, much though the peripherals scream that he shouldn’t have those results), there’s uncertainty in virtually every signing of a young player, and this is just where NYA would seem to have a competitive advantage.  They get the chance, not the certainty, of a star pitcher.

If it were a certainty, the numbers would be quite different.

@34 Unnamed scouting director for an American League team, in some ESPN article. A guy who has actually seen him pitch.

Maybe Chapman is the reason they left a spot open on the 40 man roster.

36.  Anybody who watched the WBC has “actually seen him pitch” too.

[36] I linked to an article in the Andy Pettitte review (post 33), from a guy who has seen him pitch.  He also uses video to demonstrate what Chapman does well and where the concerns are, and isn’t an anonymous scouting director.  The conclusion was potential #1/likely bullpen ace.

The Yankees don’t get a shot at guys like this until they are after age 30 (CC was a rare exception), or have some problems (Brackman needing TJ surgery).  If they can get him w/o a major-league contract, they should do it, even if they have to overpay.  By FanGraphs, Dice-K has been “worth” $33.1M in his 3 years.  If Yanks get that out of Chapman, wouldn’t that be a good thing?

[36] Thanks.  A couple of other guys who have actually seen him pitch and are not unnamed:

John Klima—good enough “as is” that he could have a year or two of exceptional success as an MLB starter and a few more workhorse type seasons.

Eddie Bane—lacks the control, secondary pitches and composure to pitch in MLB “right now”.

Scouts are all over the place on this guy.  My WAG is that this is because none of them have seen enough of him to really give an evaluation that’s worth squat.

[37] I think that may have more to do it with having to pass someone through waivers when they eventually need a roster spot for someone who they plan to play. Depending on the player of course, risking a rule V selection is decent calculated risk.

I’m still mad at Brien Taylor.

Brien Taylor killed the conversation. . . just like the Yankees dream of a prized pitching prospect.

just like the Yankees dream of a prized pitching prospect.

Phil Hughes feels so ignored.

Mauer “only” got 27 out of 28 first place votes.  Apparently, Miguel Cabrera’s mom had a ballot this year.

Tex finished above Jeter.

Looks like I am crazy.

I remember thinking in 06 when Morneau somehow miraculously won the award that Jeter would probably never be that close again, but I was wrong. Let’s hope it happens a few more times.

Wasn’t there a guy from Detroit who voted Jeter 8th in 2006? Buck says this dude is from Detroit.

It seems like lots of Moms vote in detroit.

Wasn’t there a guy from Detroit who voted Jeter 8th in 2006? Buck says this dude is from Detroit.

A couple of guys voted for Ordonez in 2007. Both of them were from Detroit, and offered that they have watched Maggs “play every day at MVP level.”

Apparently I was wrong with my Detroit insinuations. Far crazier people exist in Seattle.

Cabrera’s first-place vote came from Keizo Konishi of Kyodo News, a member of the Seattle chapter.

Looks like I am crazy.

Not completely crazy, as the voters identified Teix as #2 even though there were several players more valuable, one on his own team.

Wasn’t there a guy from Detroit who voted Jeter 8th in 2006?

I thought he was from Chicago, and voted Pierzynski ahead of Jeter and Mauer (I think he left Mauer of the ballot entirely).  I see on BBRef that Pierzynski was 30th in MVP voting that year…I’m pretty sure the BBWAA (or local chapter) *did* revoke that guy’s right to vote on awards.

Dave Cameron shows he is a *bit* upset over at FanGraphs, about this vote.

Maybe Cameron should have waited a couple of hours to see if the “‘Keith Law should lose his ballot’ crowd” had something to say about Konishi-san’s vote before he went off on them?  Just a thought.

Tex over Jeter is a joke.

Tex over Jeter is a joke.

And not a very funny one.

Aroldis Chapman is a pretty cool name.

But even the most optimistic account says he’s not ready, right? And he’s not a rise quickly through the minors type project, right? Seems like a high cost, middling reward proposition. Except the Yankees can foot the cost.

It should work out ok, if the Yankees overpay, he’s stashed in the minors ala Igawa, some egg in the face, a bit of limitation on payroll flexibility, but probably no great harm. If another team gets Chapman, then Yankee participation at least makes sure the other team pays, probably, above value.

Tex finished 2nd?  Christ. 

At least the right guy won.  But wow.  Tex should’ve been… what, 8th?

I couldn’t care less about #2-10 in award voting.

They got the right #1, so I’m happy.

But even the most optimistic account says he’s not ready, right?

I don’t know if I’ve heard the “most optimistic” account.  But I think the consensus is he needs some work on FB command and needs some work on his secondary pitches.

And he’s not a rise quickly through the minors type project, right?

“Quickly” is subjective.  I don’t think anyone is suggesting they have to start from scratch with him, for example.  Seems that they need to make incremental improvements in him.  Seems 2-3 years in the minors is about right, maybe 1-2 if he progresses well.  Your normal college-age starting pitcher.

Seems like a high cost, middling reward proposition. Except the Yankees can foot the cost.

I think it is high-cost, high-risk, high-reward.  His ceiling is #1 starter.  He’s also got a solid chance of being a mop-up reliever.  If “middling reward” is a #3 starter/closer, he’s still worth the investment, unless it gets to crazy-dollars.

But even the most optimistic account says he’s not ready, right?

Wrong.  Most reports seem to be saying that he’s not ready, but the one from John Klima that I quoted in [40] says he is.  And I’m not sure if that’s even the most optimistic account.

Seems like a high cost, middling reward proposition.

He throws a baseball 100 mph with his left hand.  He’s already way past “middling reward.”  If I was thinking about guaranteeing him a ton of money, I’d be a lot more worried about whether his mechanics make him a devastating arm injury waiting to happen than I would be about whether his upside is high enough.  His upside is Sandy Koufax.  His downside is probably Billy Wagner.

Shouldn’t the Yankees be saving every single penny to sign this Mauer kid when he becomes a free agent. I know that the Twins will try to move heaven and earth to keep him, but even with the new stadium, is it really feasible for them to keep him if the Yankees throw something ridiculous his way?

Tex should’ve been… what, 8th?

Somewhere between 5th and 10th I think.  To me, the top four (for the record, I’m not a big fan of pitchers for the MVP) were Mauer, Zobrist, Longoria, and Jeter.  In some order, but I’d probably go Mauer-Zobrist-Jeter-Longoria.  After that the next five are a muddle.

I couldn’t care less about #2-10 in award voting.

I guess a concern is process.  I’m not sure if the list on ESPN is in order (under “other” they don’t list totals), so Zobrist finished 8th.  Really?  He’s the only guy who you could argue was more valuable than Mauer, and finished 8th?  So there’s a concern that they got the guy right, but perhaps for the wrong reasons. 

So we complain not because of results, but because of the future.  A future where our children can have sensible votes for award winners.  Think of the children!

I don’t know if I’ve heard the “most optimistic” account.

When is Steve Phillips getting out of rehab?

I’d be a lot more worried about whether his mechanics make him a devastating arm injury waiting to happen than I would be about whether his upside is high enough

The article I linked to the author didn’t seem overly concerned.  Of course with pitchers, you can do everything perfectly and *still* get a debilitating injury.  But seems he’s no more an injury risk than any other prospect his age.

Shouldn’t the Yankees be saving every single penny to sign this Mauer kid when he becomes a free agent.

If Mauer becomes a FA, and the Yankees want him, money won’t be an issue.  We hope they don’t want him b/c of the progress by Montero and Romine, but I doubt they’ll be that advanced.

The Twins are a highly profitable franchise.  They’re paying Justin Morneau $15M per for the next four seasons.  Why on earth wouldn’t they be able to afford to keep Mauer with a new ballpark that they’ve already sold a ton of season tickets to?  He’s a beloved home-town boy playing in front of adoring crowds on a contending team.  Why on earth wouldn’t he want to stay?

Mauer isn’t going anywhere.  Fans of other teams really need to get over that idea.

One problem with using WAR calculations too heavily to calculate MVP is that we have less confidence that defensive value is real than offensive value.  I don’t mean which value is more likely to regress next year, but which value is more likely to have been mismeasured in the first place.

We don’t look at a home run and speculate whether it was really a double.  Perhaps it would have been a double in another park, or benefited from a favorable circumstance (like Jeffrey Meier), but there isn’t any doubt that the batter scored a run and batted in anyone on the bases.  In contrast, when a center fielder makes an OOZ play on a line drive, it’s not ridiculous to ask whether it was in zone or really a fliner.  That means there is uncertainty about how much value the player created on the play (not just how much of that value was related to skill). 

The fundamental problem is that our fielding value metrics are more closely connected with evaluating the talent required to do something than our hitting value metrics are.  That makes their output more uncertain.

Because of that, I’m comfortable with the possibility that MVP voters might regress Ben Zobrist’s +26 fielding runs to a significant enough degree that he ends up 3rd behind Jeter (as opposed to 1st or 2nd depending on how good a defender we think Mauer is).  Of course, that doesn’t justify putting him 8th, behind Bay—a decision that Fangraphs disagrees with by 1.2 wins even if you assign both players a fielding value of 0 but their actual position adjustments.

So, it does look like the voters are still sloppy down-ballot and biased in favor of playoff teams, but at least they are starting to improve and not purely looking at RBIs.

Zobrist finished 8th.  Really?

Personally, I think they got that one about right.  I just can’t buy into him really having as much defensive value as Fangraphs thinks he did.

Zobrist finished 8th.  Really?

Personally, I think they got that one about right.  I just can’t buy into him really having as much defensive value as Fangraphs thinks he did.

On Fangraphs, he’s 4th in Batting Runs and two of the players ahead of him lead by 0.7 and 3.6 runs and play first base (Jeter, at 2.8 runs back, is the only player who trails him in BR and can catch him on BR + Positional Adjustment).  Even if we assume that it’s impossible to measure anything about defense other than what position a player fields, it’s hard to defend putting him 8th.

According to reports, Cabrera gets $200,000 for finishing 4th.  I hope he sends something nice to Keizo Konishi.

Seriously, that’s a craaazy first-place vote.  I wonder if there was a butterfly ballot, or a hanging chad situation.

I think it is high-cost, high-risk, high-reward.  His ceiling is #1 starter.  He’s also got a solid chance of being a mop-up reliever.  If “middling reward” is a #3 starter/closer, he’s still worth the investment, unless it gets to crazy-dollars.

and

He throws a baseball 100 mph with his left hand.  He’s already way past “middling reward.” If I was thinking about guaranteeing him a ton of money, I’d be a lot more worried about whether his mechanics make him a devastating arm injury waiting to happen than I would be about whether his upside is high enough.  His upside is Sandy Koufax.  His downside is probably Billy Wagner.

I could be reading Klima wrong, but with a grade of 60/B, that sounds more like if his “as is” stuff goes through the system that he’ll end up with the 2 exceptional years. I’m coming at it from the view that control is the toughest part, and more so with lefties.

Issues of control + still needing x years (and injury risk) + no reliable track record makes him a middling reward for me. My reward part isn’t the best case scenario, it’s more or less averaging stuff out. With most highly touted prospects eventually peaking as 5th starters in the MLB, I was being optimistic.

And I’m saying he’s definitely worth going after.

* Not to say there isn’t such thing as high reward, but I’m just assuming it’s more than just “stuff”. Sheets and Harden is high reward types, because there is evidence of their dominance. And saying Chapman is middling reward, is just that there is too much uncertainty to say that he’ll translate to dominance. I don’t want to imply ruffling of feathers for a nuance-y, grey area, matter of degrees type stuff.

[68] Telnar’s got it.  How many runs do you remove from him and make it “close enough”?  If you remove 20 runs he’s still 4th…but shouldn’t you then have some issues with Longoria and dock him some of the 18.5 runs he has?  Zobrist would be 3rd again.

Sure, there are some issues with WAR, and specifically UZR.  I still think it is quite clear Zobrist was one of the four best *position* players in the AL last year.

To paraphrase an old Graig Nettles quote: Some people wanted to grow up and join the circus. Others wanted to grow up and write about baseball. Keizo Konishi got to do both.

I feel like someone should at least mention the name Greinke. 

And that only 105 of Mauer’s 133 starts came as a C.

i’m happy to be ridiculed for not wanting a guy just because radar guns somewhere say he threw real hard. Now where did i put my Farnsworth jersey?

also, Greinke.

Ha, ha - Schteeve has a Farnsworth jersey!  )

Schteeve, not wanting him on the ML roster is one thing.
But where the argument is for not trying to sign him at all, I can’t imagine.

Miguel Cabrera? Really? You’d think that something like going out getting drunk and then arrested two days before a one game playoff would stick in voters minds.

NJ.com

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said on Monday that the team intends to address their own free agents before wading into the rest of the free agent pool.

“I don’t want to make the mistake of having a conversation with somebody else’s agent and it plays out as if I’m pursuing that guy, and somebody misinterprets it (and) that means I’m not pursuing our guy,” Cashman said. “We’re not even at that stage yet. So I’m trying to be very careful and respectful to our players first, makes sure they’re aware of where they are in the process.”

The Yankees, as expected, have remained quiet in the early stages of baseball’s free agency period. Cashman is still in discussions with the Steinbrenner family about the team’s budget moving forward. He has yet to have much dialogue with the team’s three prominent free agents, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Andy Pettitte, or their agents.

Cashman also said he is not near any potential trades.

“Once I get some firm (budget) numbers, then I can go ahead and start putting together some ideas,” Cashman said. “I have not reached out to any agents really yet. I’ll talk to our guys first. And after I have my conversation with our guys, I’ll be full blown into the marketplace.”

Whatever the final budget, Cashman said he will spend the offseason with an eye on efficiency.

“The big picture is to be real efficient with how we allocate our resources,” Cashman said. “Last year obviously showed examples that depending on who it is, we can step up in a big way. But I think that we’re going to be very careful.”

I believe the defensive metrics for 1B do not measure catching throws from other infielders. If so, then Teixeira’s WAR doesn’t measure his full value. Teixeira’s superb ability to catch bad throws made the rest of the infield a lot better than it had been.  That, and his RBI lead make him a reasonable choice for #2 in the MVP in my opinion.

You’d think that something like going out getting drunk and then arrested two days before a one game playoff would stick in voters minds.

I’m pretty sure the votes had to be in by Sunday night, before Miggy’s little escapade.  Or at least before it was reported.

I believe the defensive metrics for 1B do not measure catching throws from other infielders. If so, then Teixeira’s WAR doesn’t measure his full value.

Of course, Mauer’s WAR doesn’t include any credit for defense at all, since there basically are no metrics for catcher defense.

Rosenthal:

Former Padres general manager Kevin Towers, a free-agent executive, says he will attend the winter meetings in Indianapolis and meet with three or four clubs.

“I’d like to align myself with a winning organization, someone I trust, someone I like working with — to be honest, preferably an American League team, just to become more familiar with that league,” Towers says.

“I’ve been in the National League my whole life. The way I look at it, if a GM job opened a year from now in the American League, I’d have a better idea how to put a ballclub together from American League perspective. It’s completely different than the National League.”

Towers worked for Red Sox president Larry Lucchino and helped develop Sox GM Theo Epstein in San Diego, but most in the industry assume he will end up working for the Yankees and their GM, Brian Cashman.

“Cash is certainly a good friend of mine, somebody I’ve got a great deal of respect for,” Towers says. “There is nothing done by any means. But if Brian Cashman had interest in my services, he’s somebody I’d listen to.”

I’m pretty sure the votes had to be in by Sunday night, before Miggy’s little escapade.  Or at least before it was reported.

This isn’t correct. Here’s Ken Rosenthal talking about how Cabrera’s incident affected his place on Rosenthal’s ballot:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10419654/Mauer-so-dominant,-the-real-race-was-for-place

His RBI lead?

Man, that Rosenthal article was so lame.

His ballot had Carpenter third, yet he “strongly disagreed” with Law having Carpenter fourth?

Really, Rosenthal? Third and fourth is that big of a deal to you?

Meanwhile, he lumps in Law with Konishi as a general “guys who voted controversially,” even though Law actually had a viable reason for not voting Carpenter third (again, he would have voted Carpenter fourth, so it’s a matter of one spot on the list - as Rob Neyer so nicely put it, it’s an outrage that two voters put Carpenter fourth, but totally cool that seven writers had Carpenter third?) while I sincerely doubt Konishi has one for Cabrera (as there isn’t one).

I believe the defensive metrics for 1B do not measure catching throws from other infielders. If so, then Teixeira’s WAR doesn’t measure his full value.

Of course, Mauer’s WAR doesn’t include any credit for defense at all, since there basically are no metrics for catcher defense.

Let’s not forget the failure of WAR to account for Jeter’s leadershipping the Yankees to a division title.  Does anyone really think CC would have won 19 games or Cano would have bounced back or A-Rod would have had all those clutch hits were it not for Captain Clutch’s steely calm and quiet intensity?

Man, that Rosenthal article was so lame.

The best part was his vote for A-rod, the real leadershiper last year.

Oh yeah, I forgot that bit - that also helped with the lameness of the article.

The guy’s casting judgments on other writers while he’s randomly putting A-Rod THIRD on his ballot?!?!

Aghh!  I actually went and read the Rosenthal article.  Now my . . .  thing . . .  in . . . head . . .  not . . .  think . . . good.

World series champ! Woohoo!

I’m still loving this recently concluded season.

...I sincerely doubt Konishi has one for Cabrera (as there isn’t one).

There isn’t one what?  Cabrera did get a first place vote.  It was Konishi’s ballot.

And why the hell does Rosenthal get to vote for both awards, anyway?

“Law actually had a viable reason for not voting Carpenter third” - “reason” was the anaphoric antecedent.

Wow, “anaphor” today after “anaphora”.

[92] I know. I get a little happy inside every time I go to fangraphs and see the WPA graph in the upper right hand corner.

it’s hard to think about Chapman w.o. knowing more about his secondary pitches, whether the fastball moves, and his command of the fastball. left-handed pitcher w/a 100 MPH fastball sounds tempting, but unless it moves, and he’s demonstrated some aptitude for/learning the craft of pitching, BFD.

Also, being 21 - is that his is real age or is there an “El Duque age adjustment” factor?

no disrespect intended for El Duque, who was a true artist on the mound, i always loved watching his performances.

I honestly don’t see him getting much more than $4M a year though.  Maybe I’m crazy but look at what Tazawa got.  I know he doesn’t have a 100+ FB but I think that at best he gets a slightly larger contract than Strasburg.  Yes Strasburg wasn’t a free agent but he is more MLB ready and Tazawa was a free agent.  Chapman is somewhere in-between the two.  I don’t think we are talking Matsuzaka money here.

“anaphor”

That comes after anathree and before anafive, right?

I honestly don’t see him getting much more than $4M a year though.

But for how many years?  And how much up front?

Tazawa was a free agent, but he was also undrafted by NPB out of high school.

As for Chapman’s fastball movement and secondary pitches:

STRENGTHS: FB pitches at 93-95 with glove-side run, topped 100, several 97-98. 2-seam FB at 91-92. SL 82 and hard, glove-side sink. Overall command average to below-average.  FB control ranges from average to above average. Workhorse type; different look from left-side; looks like an athlete. Repeats delivery and well-coordinated for big man, smooth gas, easy effort, arm speed is a blur.

Thanks, MC, for the info.  Definitely major upside there, but any team who signs him will need to develop him.  Figure a year or two in the minors, if all goes well.  There’s substantial risk involved.