To continue the Sheets discussion from the last thread…

He’s not the stud he was in 2004, and he likely never will be again.  But if he was, he’d be a viable alternative to Sabathia and it would take more than five years at more than 9 figures to sign him.  His upside is attractive because (if?) he can be had on a short-term deal.

I just don’t see any real chance he returns to 2004-2006 form (in terms of his rate stats).  The tremendous upside isn’t really there.

I am honestly starting to think for 2009 that Pettitte might be the better option.  He has similar (not quite as good) K/9IP and K/BB numbers but is much more of a ground ball pitcher.

I am honestly starting to think for 2009 that Pettitte might be the better option.

i *could*  be wrong, but i see Sheets as an independent decision from the Pettitte decision.

i believe they want to bring Pettitte back regardless.

i don’t see $26M/2 getting it done for Sheets, but it would be difficult to argue against at that price level.

2/26?  Have you guys seen what pitchers are getting lately?

This is a fine deal, and I don’t even like Sheets.  This also could be to put the heat on the CC.

“The Yankees started the Winter Meetings by meeting twice with CC Sabathia. Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi were pleased with the results.”

Results?
That CC didn’t order enough food at the meeting to blow the team’s FA fund for the year?  What results?

I just don’t see any real chance he returns to 2004-2006 form

A) As I said, and as you quoted, “He’s not the stud he was in 2004, and he likely never will be again.”  What exactly are you disagreeing with me about here?  My point is that if he still was that guy, he’d be looking for 6/$120M.

B) There is no “2004-2006 form” with Sheets.  There’s 2004 (237 IP, 264 K), and there’s everything else.  The drop-off from 2004 to 2005 is the real break point.  Grouping 2004-2006 only makes sense if you ignore the sample size issues with 2006.  I highly doubt that he could have sustained that 10.6:1 K:BB over a full season.

I am honestly starting to think for 2009 that Pettitte might be the better option.

I think that for 2009, Pettitte is just as likely to be injured and/or ineffective as Sheets.  In his last eleven starts, he was somewhere between poor and putrid six times.

CC Sabathia and Pettite are completely independent.

Sheets and Pettite are probably not.  They’re correlated to one degree or another.

This offer may a signal to Pettite to let him know they have other options.  If Pettite is stuck on making $16M and the yankees offer Sheets $13M/yr that says something.

If Sheets were to accept $26M/2 then they could move on from Pettite.  Sign CC, sign Lowe/Burnett/, and round out the staff with Sheets.

Alternatively, if the team sign CC and Sheets at $13M/yr and then want Andy - he’s lost some leverage.  Andy is going to make less than the guy they signed to be their #3 starter.  If that #3 is making $13M then Andy is likely to get less if he comes back.

What results?

I assume it just means that they got the impression he considers the Yankees a viable option.  As opposed to getting the impression that he really doesn’t want to play in New York but would reluctantly sign if they were to increase their already outrageous offer by another outrageous amount.  But again, what else would we expect a manager and GM to say after meeting with a free agent?  Even if they think he’s just stringing them along and using them to get more elsewhere, it’s not going to do them any good to pull the offer and say nasty things about him.  That would just make it cheaper and easier for a rival to sign him.  If the Yankees lose out on Sabathia, it’s in their interest to make it as difficult and expensive as possible for whatever team he does sign with.

Of course, MC.  And Snowshoe - too many FA SPs.  Unlikely to happen, I think, and I, for one, am hardly sure I want it to happen.

If Sheets were to accept $26M/2 then they could move on from Pettite.  Sign CC, sign Lowe/Burnett/, and round out the staff with Sheets.

Maybe plan A is 1) Sabathia, 2)Lowe or Burnett, 3)Sheets or Pettitte.  But if they don’t get Sabathia, plan B could become three out of Lowe, Burnett, Sheets and Pettitte instead of just two.

I don’t see them signing CC, Lowe/Burnett, and Sheets.  But I think an offer to Sheets sends something of a message to Pettite about salary expectations.

According to Cairo, here are two relevent #’s for how Sheets, Pettitte, and Burnett would project in a neutral league/park:

Doesn’t Cairo take the last 3 yeras?  2006 (even though it was only over 100 IP) is not something you can really expect again and I’m not sure how much it it skewing the expected results. 

Just looking at the numbers they put up last year, Pettitte’s K/9IP was just about 7.00 last year too. His K/BB was lower than Sheets but not that much. It was still in the same ballpark. Pettitte also gets a lot more GB than Sheets.  And most importantly Pettitte pitched in the AL East, not the NL Central.

Grouping 2004-2006 only makes sense if you ignore the sample size issues with 2006.  I highly doubt that he could have sustained that 10.6:1 K:BB over a full season.

Not really.  2006 with pretty much in line with 2004.  Even 2005 is much much better than he has been since.  I mean 8.10 K/9IP and 5.64 K/BB isn’t close to what he put up the last two years.

Maybe plan A is 1) Sabathia, 2)Lowe or Burnett, 3)Sheets or Pettitte.  But if they don’t get Sabathia, plan B could become three out of Lowe, Burnett, Sheets and Pettitte instead of just two.

Yes.  This is what I was trying to get at!  How serious they are about this?  Who knows.

But if they can even create an impression that its Sheets or Pettite in some way that only helps with negotiations with Pettitte.  Shows him they have another option on a guy with top notch stuff who could come affordably.

Tough to put a price on Pettite.  2007 he was around 40 runs above replacement. That’s worth $22M or so.  2008 he was 15 runs above replacement.  Worth $7.5M.

Andy’s repeated this up and down for a couple of years - even back to Houston.

If he pitches without pain he’s been very effective.  But if he develops soreness in his elbow or shoulder - he fights through it - but isn’t nearly as effective.  It’s both a testament to him and a limitations.  Lots of guys would shut it down rather than pitch through it.  If the rotation weren’t such a mess last year I think he might have gone on the DL with that shoulder stiffness.

Maybe plan A is 1) Sabathia, 2)Lowe or Burnett, 3)Sheets or Pettitte.  But if they don’t get Sabathia, plan B could become three out of Lowe, Burnett, Sheets and Pettitte instead of just two.

my take on it is this:

1) Sabathia, 2)Lowe or Burnett or Sheets 3) Pettitte.

that’s what i was thinking.  this way, it leaves a spot open in the rotation for Hughes in 2010.

Perhaps there were results, but they’ve agreed not to do any official signings until after the Rule 5 draft so as not to affect the roster.

That’s an excellent point, Mr. Wombat.  The 40-man is full at the moment, isn’t it?

You mean he wouldn’t sign a minor-league deal?

Not sure I buy the 40-man argument.  The draft is in a couple of days, and he would still need to have his physical before anything could be signed and added to the roster.  Just think how long a physical takes to cover his entire body!  It could have been announced yesterday and probably still would have been fine for roster considerations.

As MC said, he’s taking time with the biggest decision of his life.

is there a funnier image than Cashman planting a remote controlled whoopee cushion under Pete Abe’s chair?

is there a funnier image than Cashman planting a remote controlled whoopee cushion under Pete Abe’s chair?

The only way it could be better is if it were Girardi instead of Cashman.

yup, I made the same comment late last night.

ym, I disagree- I can just see Cashman giggling away at his little prank.

is there a funnier image than Cashman planting a remote controlled whoopee cushion under Pete Abe’s chair?

Pete using the whoopee cushion as cover for a potentially embarrassing situation?

That’s just too weird.

How long until WW spins Whoopie Cushion-gate into another attack on Cashman?

Tons of rumors, but it’s Rosenthal so who knows…Yanks interested in Punto, Mike Cameron, Bill Hall (among others):

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8912072

I like Punto.  Hits for absolutely no power.  But one of the big limitations on many utility guys is that they can’t play SS well at all.  Given Jeter’s age that’s a real need.

Punto has been an everyday SS and is a good defender there.  He’s also played 3b,2b and every outfield position.  Hits for a decent average.  Switch hitter and has speed.

He’d be a very nice pick up.  They need a more viable back up option at SS.  That’s why a guy like Mark Loretta isn’t that great a fit.  Loretta’s played SS but he’s pretty bad there.  Just doesn’t have much range at all.

i would be fine with Punto as the backup IFer.

decent glove and knows how to take a walk. 

no power, but if he had power, he’d be starting somewhere.

Depends on how much Punto wants for his services.  He made somewhere around $3M last season, didn’t he?  That’s kind of pricey for a UIF.

Francessa really ripping CC and the Yankees.

They should have put a a whoopee cushion under CC.

Elsewhere, the Nats going for Tex. so they are saying.

if Francessa thinks the Yankees are stupid for chasing CC, then i know they are doing the right thing.

If he pitches without pain he’s been very effective.  But if he develops soreness in his elbow or shoulder - he fights through it - but isn’t nearly as effective.  It’s both a testament to him and a limitations.  Lots of guys would shut it down rather than pitch through it.

Exactly.  And I do admire guys who battle through these things and give you what they can instead of going on the DL with every blister or hang-nail.  But Andy isn’t getting any younger, which to me means that a) he’s going to have more and more of this stuff to battle through, b) he’s going to be less and less effective when he isn’t completely healthy, and c) he’s going to be more and more likely to reach a point where he can’t work through it.  It’s just a hunch, but I have zero faith that he’s got another 200 inning season in him.

Right, making the most storied franchise in history go hat-in-hand looks real good there.

$40 million more than any other offer, now Ca$hman pleading with CC, sending Reggie to talk to him, ad nauseum. Yeah, looks real good.

Wasn’t it argued that Pettitte was distracted last winter, didn’t show up in optimum shape, and ran out of steam in the second half?  I’d prefer other solutions, but maybe not for fully rational reasons.

Depends on how much Punto wants for his services. 

absolutely.  but Adam Everett just signed in Detroit for $1M to start.

if Punto isn’t finding a starting job, he’s going to have to take what he can get.

Wasn’t it argued that Pettitte was distracted last winter…

Yes, it was argued.  I don’t buy it.

if CC eventually signs, who gives a crap about how long the courting process took?

nothing matters at all until Spring Training starts.

this storyline is ridiculous.

Ad nauseum means “to an extreme (and sickening) extent,” not “etcetera.”

But yup, what about the dignity of the organization?  It’s being compromised!

Stastics show that no team that compromised its dignity by more than .128 D/C on a FA ever won the world series the subsequent season.

Hey! Another meaningless Frog post. WOW! Way to add to the discussion there Froggy. Ribbit.

And I know what ad nauseum means, fly eater. It was used in a proper sense, whether you approve or not. Have a nice day.

if Francessa thinks the Yankees are stupid for chasing CC, then i know they are doing the right thing.

I love this theory. I tell my wife (who is a huge Jets fan) that if the ESPN announcers like your, it’s usually a bad sign. Hilarious.

like your team

Good points.

CC meeting with the Giants. But he really, truly! Wants to sign with the Yankees.

He’ll make for a very happy camper if he does eventually sign here, I’m sure he will. Just please, somewone in the NL West make me [CC] a good offer so I dn’t have to take the Yankees offer.  Although I really do want to sign with the Yankees.

Playing Cashman and the Yankees for fools, and the fans who are willing to go along with this nonsense, going on ad nauseum.

Jesus fucking Christ.  Enough with the Yankee Pride nonsense, already.  Yankees are an organization that’s no higher and mightier than any other, except in the eyes of its fans.  Unless a player grew up a Yankee fan, he doesn’t give a rat’s tail about the Power of Pinstripes, or any other crap like that.  What he wants is MONEY.  And 99 times out of 100, he’ll go where the money is best. Most often for a premium player, it happens to be the Yankees. They can spout whatever they want about their lifelong dreams of becoming a Yankee or playing on a winning team, but most of the time they’ll go where the money is.  Period.

Sabathia is a free agent.  He’s holding out for most money.  And he wants to make sure he makes the right choice for his family.  He doesn’t care about “the storied franchise.” Big fucking deal.  If he comes over here and does well, he’ll be loved all the same.  Yankee fans’ attitude that somehow every player in baseball should be crawling to us begging for a chance to play here is what makes Yankee fans so despised everywhere.  We’re not that special, except to ourselves.  Deal with it.

It’s just a hunch, but I have zero faith that he’s got another 200 inning season in him.

This is why I think the yanks might be relatively inelastic on Andy’s price.

I think his days of being a guy who you can count to to pitch into the 6-7 inning may be over.

If they bring him back they may need to use him like they did Mussina last season - 5-6 innings.  Then bring in the pen.  That would be both to save his in game effectiveness, but more importantly his effectiveness across the season.  Moose just got to 200 this year so it’s possible with limited innings per start he could get to 200.  But it’s a lot less likely.

They may be looking at him like a pitcher who could give them 170-180 innings rather than 200.

In the past Pettitte’s total runs saved have been more impressive than his ERA/rate stats due to him pitching a large number of innings reliably.  That dynamic may be changing and in turn his value.

Very good, Don.  You used the term correctly this time.

You see, you pretend like you don’t care, but you actually learned something today.

But Andy isn’t getting any younger, which to me means that a) he’s going to have more and more of this stuff to battle through, b) he’s going to be less and less effective when he isn’t completely healthy, and c) he’s going to be more and more likely to reach a point where he can’t work through it.  It’s just a hunch, but I have zero faith that he’s got another 200 inning season in him.

All true.  You could have said the same thing about Mike Mussina going into this year (and you may have, I don’t know).  You could say the same thing about Burnett - though younger he’s also had more injuries in recent years - since he’s on the wrong side of 30.  At Lowe’s age he’s one injury away from being a 5th starter.  Main thing about Pettitte, is he WILL take a one year deal, he’ll LIKELY take it for $12M (or less), and he WON’T cost you any draft picks.  And -depending on what he does if they don’t sign him and answers to questions you asked yesterday about how many type A/B FA you can sign - you don’t use up signing a ranked FA player.

Pettitte’s upside is a #3 starter.  His downside is a #5 (probably still better than Ponson or Rasner).  A #5 isn’t worth $10M, but Yanks can afford to overpay here.

Don, how are the Yankees being played for fools?  Have they been jacking up their offer?  Have they missed out on any other pitchers because they’ve been waiting on CC?  Has Cashman blocked all calls from all other players’ agents until the CC situation is resolved?  This is foolish.

Sabathia is a premier free agent.  One that only hits the market very rarely.  His services are highly desirable.  Like it or not, it is up to the organization to lure him over.  No one says Sabathia is dying to play for the Yankees.  But no one says he doesn’t.  Why is it so hard to understand that he wants to take the time to make sure he’s weighed ALL his options before making one of the most important decisions of his life.

now Ca$hman pleading with CC

Sabathia requested the meeting with Cashman. He apparently requested a second one also. That sounds like he’s interested to me.

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081208&content_id=3707167&vkey=news_nyy&fext;=.jsp&c_id=nyy

[42] Do not feed Don.

Re “It’s the money”, I don’t really get it.  If someone offered me say 1.2x my salary to work in Middleofnowhereville, Flyovercountry, or Milwaukee, or Manhattan, I’d say, no thanks.  It’s a bit different for a ballplayer given all the travel but still.

i really wish the Red Sox had had the same hangups about going “hat in hand” to Curt Schilling’s house on Thanksgiving and “pleading” with him to accept a trade to Boston.

that really backfired on them.

Sorry, rilke.  It’s just gotten to the point of absurd, and not just here.

I apologize for ranting.

yup, I was just thinking the same thing.

Jesus fucking Christ.  Enough with the Yankee Pride nonsense, already.

Calm down YM.  When you lose your cool, Don smiles.

Sabathia requested the meeting with Cashman. He apparently requested a second one also.

stop posting facts.  Francessa has spoken.

It’s just gotten to the point of absurd, and not just here.

this is what is driving me crazy.

and this isn’t directed at Don at all.  i will actually give Don credit as he has been saying this same thing for a while now.  so it’s actually his opinion.  i don’t necessarily agree, but it’s his opinion.

what is driving me crazy is that all of sudden, today, the catchphrase on all sorts of blogs is that the “Yankees look like fools”.

why today?  because Francessa said so.

it’s amazing how quickly a meme spreads when it comes from that guy.

If someone offered me say 1.2x my salary to work in Middleofnowhereville, Flyovercountry, or Milwaukee, or Manhattan, I’d say, no thanks.

Money means different things to different people.  For example, I like NYC, but personally wouldn’t want to live there.  If someone offered me $1M a year for 5 years, I’d move in a minute, and then work to find ways to be happy there.  Of course, if I got offered $1M to work in NYC, and then someone else offered $800K to work in Philly, I’d probably take Philly.

CC is doing the same thing.  Is his number 20% less to go to a place he is more familiar with?  10%?  I don’t know; doesn’t mean he won’t be happy in NYC if he chooses the $$‘s though.

what if that extra 20% represents not $200K but $20M?  and by being a little uncomfortable for 3 months a year for 6 years, you could, say, start a charity and give out hundreds of scholarships to kids who can’t afford college?

just an example of how the magnitude of this could complicate this decision. 

$20M is still $20M.

You could have said the same thing about Mike Mussina going into this year

Except of course, that Mussina was already under contract for $11-12M, rather than holding out for $16M.

And like I said earlier, “even if (the Yankees think (Sabathia)’s just stringing them along and using them to get more elsewhere, it’s not going to do them any good to pull the offer and say nasty things about him.  That would just make it cheaper and easier for a rival to sign him.  If the Yankees lose out on Sabathia, it’s in their interest to make it as difficult and expensive as possible for whatever team he does sign with.”  What would make the Yankees look like fools is to say or do something stupid like giving Sabathia a deadline or an ultimatum that led to him signing with another team for less than it would have taken had the Yankees’ offer still been on the table.

it’s amazing how quickly a meme spreads when it comes from that guy.

I was wondering what that odor was.

K-Rod to the Mets for 3-years, $37M?  They got lucky the bottom fell out of the closer market.  Not a terrible deal for them.

Except of course, that Mussina was already under contract for $11-12M, rather than holding out for $16M.

Yes, and I agree 100% in not giving him $16M.  I think that $11-$12M is a more reasonable amount.  I was just pointing out a similar pitcher at a similar age, with similar issues (IIRC, Moose pitched through some arm problems in 2007), who worked out fairly well.  That of course does not mean that Pettitte will be as successful as Moose (nor am I expecting it).  But if you limited yourself to only signing pitchers that didn’t have the potential issues you listed, you’d have a very short list. 

The most attractive thing about Pettitte (as a pitcher, what did you think?) is that he WANTS a one-year deal.  If it is a mistake you only have to live with it for a year, maybe not even that.  You make a mistake on Burnett or Lowe or Sheets, you have to live with it for multiple years (sounds like 5 for Burnett and Lowe).

K-Rod has a bad agent.  Boras would have created a market for him, or waited until some team lost out on everyone else and just wanted anything.

K-Rod has a bad agent.  Boras would have created a market for him, or waited until some team lost out on everyone else and just wanted anything.

Looked at the other way, he could have a good agent.  Being if he didn’t take this offer, the rest of the teams that wanted closers (and had money) could have signed someone else, and suddenly in January K-Rod is looking at 1 year for 8$M in Tampa or something.  Who knows?  I suppose we’d need to wait until the chips fall to tell for sure.

Well, anything is possible.  But the way the chips fall will prove nothing.  FA is not a zero-sum game.

it’s a buyers’ market for closers and corner bats who can’t field. 

K-Rod was the cream of the crop (perceived value anyway) and he got about half of what we were tossing around a few months ago on here. 

the ceiling has now been set for the closer market and Fuentes/Wood/etc. should sign soon for somewhere less than $37M/3.

once Manny or Dunn signs, the same should happen for Abreu/Ibanez/Burrell etc.

Just found out Giambi and Arn Tellem had dinner last night with Joe Maddon at the Palms.

Yankee fans’ attitude that somehow every player in baseball should be crawling to us begging for a chance to play here is what makes Yankee fans so despised everywhere.  We’re not that special, except to ourselves.  Deal with it.

I categorically deny hacking into Yankeemonkey’s login.

It always seems so convincing when the article is - cynicism, everyone does this, just money, etc.  But it’s not so.  People do choose things for other reasons - even for subjective, irrational reasons.  Does where you and your family live matter?  I think it clearly could - but, beyond that, baseball players are people and are influenced not only by money, but by biases and all sorts of motivations we can’t know anything about.  Could “aura and mystique” be among them on occasion?  Of course they could.  For many people, and not only fans, the Yankees are special - and not only to their own fans.  It’s just not true.  History is not a lie and it’s not naive to admit or believe that it can be tremendously suggestive - and attractive.
There are players to whom the history of the game means nothing.  But there are players to whom it means a great deal - which isn’t surprising, because a sense of the history of the game can invest their own lives with a deeper sense of significance.
That having been said, it doesn’t look like Sabathia gives an aeronautic copulation.  (But if I were in his position and did give such a thing, I wouldn’t let on about it until the best possible contract had been signed.)

More Rosenthal:

“The Yankees are in active discussions with Sabathia and Sheets as well as Burnett, and remain willing to sign both Sabathia and Burnett, sources say.”

Is the price difference between Burnett and Teix that huge that they’re willing to do S+B but not S+T?

Now this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081209&content_id=3708653&vkey=news_nyy&fext;=.jsp&c_id=nyy&partnerId=rss_nyy

“The Yankees and Phillies have emerged as the two most prominent contenders for free-agent right-hander Derek Lowe, according to a report Tuesday on SI.com.

The 35-year-old Lowe is seeking a five-year deal in the area of $80 million, and has drawn interest from multiple suitors. However, it is New York and Philadelphia who have been most aggressive, according to the report. ”

Of course, if I got offered $1M to work in NYC, and then someone else offered $800K to work in Philly, I’d probably take Philly.

Really?  You’d take Philly over New York?
It would take about $20 million to get me to live in Philly over an offer of $1 million for New York.

A Giants beat blogger says Sabathia has rejected the Yankees’ offer, which has to be wrong because no agent could be stupid enough to flat reject $140m this early in the game.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2008/12/09/giants-talk-to-sabathias-camp-yanks-rumored-to-be-out/#more-646

A Giants beat blogger says Sabathia has rejected the Yankees’ offer, which has to be wrong because no agent could be stupid enough to flat reject $140m this early in the game.

Feh.  Just wishful thinking from a Giants fan.

Reasons to sign with team X, as generally cited by top FAs:

1. Money
2. Years, or other aspects of the contract, like a convenient out clause
3. Playoff/WS chances [vaguely related to “mystique”]
4. Location/family [sometimes confused with loyalty to current team]

Anything else? There are other wrinkles for B- and C-list FAs, like playing time, but not for the top tier. I think it’s smart for Milwaukee to offer CC that opt-out, since they can’t win out on #1 and are shaky on 3 and 4.

I do believe that 2, 3, and 4 matter, at least when 1 is a wash between the various options, or reaches a point (e.g. 9 figures) where the total is so absurd that taking $10 mil less means nothing to the player. Of course, you have your Klemens types who will say anything to avoid admitting that it came down to #1, but few players are as fundamentally dishonest as he.

How
do
you
know?

I bet the 1st meeting went so well that Cashman felt comfortable using the whoopie cushion on CC in meeting 2. Sabathia, long haunted by a memory of being falsely accused of a heinous fart in 3rd grade, immediately rejected the offer and stormed out.

Which part? I don’t know whether other people are as dishonest as Klemens. I suppose it’s possible. But the list—this is what’s reported regularly.

Love this comment at LoHud:

“If we lose CC go Tex Manny Burnett Sheets Pettitte”

Love this comment at LoHud:

Reading the comments at LoHud make angels cry.

I know, I don’t know why I do it. Sometimes I need the fix/esteem-boost.

I sympathize, I find myself doing the same thing.  The comments on ESPN might actually be dumber.  It’s tough to tell that close to absolute zero.

Major media don’t seem to attract the best comments. Yesterday, Tony Massarotti posted his “no news from Vegas” opening blog item, and a commenter berated him to get out and work harder to find news. Because that’s how newspapers really work, I guess.

Er, from the Boston Globe, meant to add.

Yeah, chunkheads commenting on the Globe site. Can you believe it?

Because that’s how newspapers really work, I guess.

Well, it kind of is, but we all live more happily when they control themselves. 

My vice is the comments at fox sports.  The spam for porn is about as intelligent as that gets.

Could A.J. Burnett’s price rise to $100 million over five years?

It’s not out of the question if the Yankees lose out on CC Sabathia. At that point, Burnett’s leverage with the Yankees would be immense.

Count me out of a 9-figure Burnett contract. 

I know, I know, it’s just Rosenthal.

Such BS. Don’t the Yankees just have to pay more than the next guy? I mean, in order to beat out the Orioles for Burnett, they don’t have to double the offer, right? So if Atlanta is offering 5/75, then I suspect the Yankees only have to do the same. His agent seems to be talking to the entire AL East, which means Burnett is smart enough to know where the real baseball is played.

er, more incoherence: I meant the Yanks have to just offer a little more than the best offer, if that.

Is the price difference between Burnett and Teix that huge that they’re willing to do S+B but not S+T?

define “huge”. 

i’m guessing it will be about $80M.

Well, I think some people are looking at AAV and some people are looking at total contract amounts when comparing Sabathia and Burnett to Sabathia and Teixeria.  I tend to think the Yankees are looking more at total contract amounts…

I think he was talking AAV.  In which case it should be closer to $4M or $5M… or the cost of Marte… a type A free agent.

Why did we sign him again?

Well, right.  I was merely saying that the Yankees (read: decision-makers) seem to be considering total contract amount when making decisions, so there really is a big difference between the two.  Marte really isn’t what’s holding it up.

gotcha.  but shouldn’t they be considering total contract amount? it’s not like you can just cut bait should something go wrong.  it’s all guaranteed money.

Seems to me that AAV is more important.  Or at least both need to be weighed.

Sign Tex and Sheets and call it a day.

the end.

Because its a guaranteed deal the total contract value is far more important than the AAV on most of these deals.

Business worry a lot about long term fixed costs. Every long term contract in baseball becomes a fixed cost the minute its signed.

The nominal difference in AAV between the yanks offer and brewers offer is 13%.
The difference in fixed costs is 40%.

The longer guaranteed deals also have non-monetary values that need to be considered.  The longer the deal the more risk is transferred from the player to the club.  Yearly salaries don’t escalate nearly enough to justify the risk premium associated with injuries and fall offs in performance with age.

Insurance is another big factor.  Can’t get insured for more than a 3 year deal.  On top of that many of these contracts are so large they are too expensive to practically insure.  Reporedly Alex’s contract is not insured.  Too expensive.  So the yankees are absorbing all of that risk.  Each long term deal you add on increases that risk.

They’re both important but its the total guaranteed money that matters most - that’s the variable that varies far more than the AAV does and the one that internalizes risk more.

“The nominal difference in AAV between the yanks offer and brewers offer is 13%.
The difference in fixed costs is 40%.”

This was referring to CC’s contract offers.

sure, it’s important.  AAV, total dollars, contract length.  it’s all important. 

i just think it’s a little silly to look at an $80M/5 deal and a $160M/8 deal and argue that they are only a $4M apart.

“On top of that many of these contracts are so large they are too expensive to practically insure.  Reporedly Alex’s contract is not insured.”

That’s a funny example.

It’s very possible that the Yankees would choose not to insure Tex’s contract either if it was 8/170 or so.  Same principle.  The premiums are too high vs. the risk of a position player getting hurt.

But once you have ARod signed on an uninsured deal like that and then add another huge uninsured deal you’ve expanded your risk with respect to long term fixed costs considerably.

I wonder whether the Yanks might prefer Burnett over Sheets because the former won’t cost them a draft pick.

but the draft pick has a rough dollar amount that could be accounted for the signing $ / likelihood of that player turning into a major leaguer and how many years away that is.

seriously, someone express this opportunity cost in a formula!

anyway, compare that to the difference between 3 years of sheet or 5 years of burnett. the shorter contract must look better.

The downside is the serious lack of free agents next year: harden and webb have already been extended so the only “ace” left is cliff lee. He’s a major league pitcher but, excuse me, yawn.