Please give Sabathia and Teixeira a blank check Cash. Please.

I don’t know about a blank check, but they should be able to land both of them if they want them, I think.

You build a team around the right free agents and youth. If they land Teixeira and Sabathia, you’re now building your team (for the next 5 to 7 years) around the best hitter in the game (Rodriguez) one of the best offense + defense players in the game (Teixeira) and probably one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the game (Sabathia.)  You keep all of your prospects, and you also get to see the guys from the last generation make some more runs at it. That’s the big picture, I think.

SG,

Your analysis on Teixeira and his value to the yankees has been very interesting.  But I’d like to play devil’s advocate for a minute. There seems to be a growing consensus that Teixeira is a guy they need to sign and I’m not sure his level of performance stacks up to the contract he’ll likely get.

I saw your analysis on his value using marginal wins.  But there is truly no good way to determine return on investment for any kind of service employment. It’s hard enough in manufacturing.  Using marginal wins is as good as any I suppose, but it seems to me to be overvaluing Tex.

IMO Teixeira is a very, very good two way 1b but falls short of being a truly great player.  But there seems to be little doubt that he’s going to be paid like a truly great player.

He’s never had a 1.000 OPS season, never slugged over .600 (never even over .580), never hit over .310.  His OBP has only been over .400 twice - .410 his highest.  He’s hit over 40 HR once.

These are some ad hoc criteria I’m throwing out there, but these are levels of performance that guys like Alex, Manny, Pujols and Ortiz achieve on a fairly frequent level.

Teixeira is a very good defender but he’s not Pujols.

Overall, he does a lot of things very well - but I’m not sure if he does anything “great.”

By Chris Dial’s data there around 1- players who were 40 runs better than average at their position in 2007 and 2008.  Valuing marginal wins at between $5-6M do you really think there would be 10 players in the game who are worth $22+M per year long term?

I wonder why the Yanks are not signing Pettitte right away.  Do they have doubts about his shoulder?  Are they looking to see where the market settles?  Will they wait until they can bid on guys like Lowe or Burnett?  If I were Cashman, I would ink Pettitte now to give the rotation a bit more certainty.  Given that he only wants a one year deal, it seems fairly cut and dried unless Andy has some sort of injury the Yanks are scared of.

IE, it doesn’t seem unlikely that they would be in “if Sabathia, then one of Moose & Pettitte” mode.  Or at least have pegged salary to that kind of “if-then” scenario.

I should have added: With Moose being preferred to Pettitte.

I should have added: With Moose being preferred to Pettitte.

I think that’s it exactly.  They want to see what Moose wants to do first.  I think if Moose wants to give it another year, they’d prefer Moose over Pettitte.  But if Moose calls it quits this week, they’ll step in and work out a contract w/ Pettitte, and then go on and try to sign CC.

There seems to be a growing consensus that Teixeira is a guy they need to sign and I’m not sure his level of performance stacks up to the contract he’ll likely get.

You’re probably right on both counts.  When you look at needs, Tex fits the Yankees perfectly.  One of the top fielding 1B, an an excellent hitter; if not one of the tops in the game at least at a level right below that.  Also being a switch-hitter, there’s an advantage there too.  Given the Yankees’ needs for next year, he’s the best fit.  And as a plus, he should still be an excellent player for a few years, and a good player for several more.

Will he get more than he’s “worth”?  Almost certainly.  There are probably very few - if any - players that are worth what he’ll get.  However, the Yankees are probably one of the few teams that *can* afford to overpay a player.  Overpaying for Mark Teixiera isn’t that bad of a thing.  Overpaying for mediocre players is a bad thing.  Tex isn’t mediocre, even if he isn’t a HOF player.

IMO Teixeira is a very, very good two way 1b but falls short of being a truly great player.

He projects to be the second best 1B in baseball next year.  No, he’s not Pujols, but no one is.  Pujols is possibly going to end up as the best 1B EVER.

He’s never had a 1.000 OPS season, never slugged over .600 (never even over .580), never hit over .310.  His OBP has only been over .400 twice - .410 his highest.  He’s hit over 40 HR once.

But those are arbitrary milestones rooted in Base 10 but don’t necessarily mean all that much.  I could just as easily say that aside from his rookie year he’s never slugged less than .512, and he’s driven in over 104 runs five straight years, he’s hit no fewer than 33 HRs in a season since his second year, etc.,

Teixiera projects to put runs on the board.  That’s all that matters. 

Overall, he does a lot of things very well - but I’m not sure if he does anything “great.”

But I think if you add up all those things, you can possibly end up with someone great.

By Chris Dial’s data there around 1- players who were 40 runs better than average at their position in 2007 and 2008.  Valuing marginal wins at between $5-6M do you really think there would be 10 players in the game who are worth $22+M per year long term?

We can only go by what teams are paying for a marginal win.  In any single season, I would think there are certainly 10+ players worth $22M per season.  The problem is, that’s during their peak, and paying them for that peak long-term ends up being the problem.

“But I think if you add up all those things, you can possibly end up with someone great.”

Would you say that we do, SG, in Texeira’s case?

“Pujols is possibly going to end up as the best 1B EVER. “

Point taken.  Perhaps Pujols is such an outlier that to he unrealistically skews expected production from first base.

“Teixiera projects to put runs on the board.  That’s all that matters.”

True.  In using those arbitrary milestones I was trying to get at Teixeira generally hits for less power than most other players considered to be “great.”  But he’s very productive.  And perhaps even more striking - he’s very, very consistent.  He might not have the upside of an 1.100 OPS season but he’s not going to fall far below .900 in any given season.

“But I think if you add up all those things, you can possibly end up with someone great. “

Well said.  I think this is the best argument for Tex.  Multidimensional does nearly everything well to very well.  He’s a composite player that can contribute in a number of different ways.

Appreciate your thoughts SG.

Pujols better than Gehrig? Without looking at the numbers I would say you are off your rocker.

Lou Gehrig, lifetime OPS+ = 179
Albert Pujols, lifetime OPS+ = 170

That’s rather close.  Given the difficulties of playing the modern game, i.e. facing relief pitchers and such, I would say Pujols is at least equal or slightly better at this point.

Nevermind the difficuly of playing with shittier equipment, a higher pitcher’s mound, doctored baseballs, and 450 foot parks. Probably with no hot tub or massage therapist to visit after the game.

Oh and the fact that Gehrig put up his better OPS+ and BA in more than twice as many seasons as pujols. If pujols continues to play at this level for another 5 seasons than MAYBE you can talk about this.

Shenanigans: IIRC that was classic Dan Duquette. Not sure of the exact source, but here’s a quote:

Of course, the reason Teixeira is available this June is that Dan Duquette tried to bully his father, John, when they drafted him in the ninth round in 1998. Teixeira wanted to sign and had a number ($1.85 million) less than what the Red Sox gave pitchers Sang Hoon Lee or Robinson (Crusoe) Checo, but the cursing and bully attempts so disgusted the family that they would not allow him to sign with Boston.

Whether Teixeira still holds a grudge, I can’t say. But it would be a bit silly. Among the top ten reasons he won’t sign with the Sox, I’d put this at the lower end.

With Teixeira, one of the things I like is the shape of his career.  He established himself as a big-leaguer as a rookie, and has made slow, steady progress ever since.  Look at his OPS+ starting from his rookie year:  102, 131, 144, 126, 150, 151.  You sign him, and you don’t need him to buck any historical trends or anything.  You’d be perfectly happy if his decline over the next six-to-eight years more-or-less mirrored the ascent of his previous six.

There’s no injury concerns, there’s no attitude concerns, and he’s a switch hitter.

It’s tough to imagine a safer bet going forward.

I wonder why the Yanks are not signing Pettitte right away.

Since Pettite doesn’t want to play anywhere else, it doesn’t cost the Yankees anything to wait.

How was Gehrig’s defense?  I vaguely recall reading he wasn’t a good fielder.  Pujols’s glove is worth perhaps two games.

It’s tough to imagine a safer bet going forward.

Indeed. Compared to Sabathia it’s no contest, although the comparison is a tad unfair, given the generally less predictable nature of pitchers’ careers. But hey, the dollars are guaranteed, so all else being equal, you’d think teams would want some assurances in return.

Would you say that we do, SG, in Texeira’s case?

I would probably characterize Teixeira as great.  He doesn’t project to hit my 50 runs above replacement target for MVP caliber, but he’s very close.

i think we’ve possibly become spoiled by watching A-Rod and Manny, and i guess Ortiz, in the same division for so long.  Teixeira is great.