Larry, are you writing from the future?  How is it there?

I forward-dated the post so it would go up at midnight.

A bay bay

I don’t remember kevin, who is he?

Don’t ask.

Except kevin.  And that douchebag at the O’s game.  Screw those two.

Classic.

Oh, man… this is the worst reverse jinx attempt I have ever seen. The Red Sox are dead… DEAD! You hear?!?  OK, maybe second-worst.

People want to compare this to 1978, but the wild card really kills that. Everyone knows who the four teams are in the AL, and it’s just a matter of seeding. I’ve long stated that we need to win the division for certain psychological reasons, but that argument assumes we don’t have to sacrifice other things to do it. Now, unfortunately, we need to focus on turning around certain players, getting Ortiz and Ramirez healthy, etc., and probably can’t afford to reach for the division anymore. If we get it anyway, great. If not, well, nobody can argue that the Yankees didn’t deserve it. [Or that the Sox “choked”, which the record doesn’t support.] The teams are essentially even for the season, and October will decide who gets the glory.

Or that the Sox “choked”, which the record doesn’t support.

If the Yankees had won a few more games here and there, and swept the Red Sox last weekend, yeah, you could argue that “choke” had nothing to do with anything that might happen (I don’t think losing head-to-head games is an argument in favor of a choke—it could just as easily be because the team that won was red-hot).

But Boston came out of last weekend up 4 1/2 with 12 to play.  If the Yankees win the division, there was a definite “choke” aspect to it on Boston’s part—it just didn’t happen until the very end.

Preach it, Brother Larry.

Having to play 18 or whatever games v. the Sox every year has made the rivalry tedious. As a result, I view them as just another team in the way of the ultimate prize.

They’ve never gotten this close since they first fell back, but there’s only 10 games left.  A 1 1/2-game lead is not insignificant.

As SSF said, people like to compare this to 1978.  In 1978, the Yankees had a 2 game lead with 9 games left against the bottom two teams in the division, the last six at home.  They went 6-3; Boston was 9-1.

I disagree with the notion that all the Yankees have accomplished so far is wrapping up a playoff spot.  Just coming this far has been a huge accomplishment, and everyone who follows baseball knows it.

As for what may happen going forward, I would point out that Boston’s management has evidently decided that getting the team ready for the playoffs is a higher priority at this point than hanging on to the division.  Although that philosophy may just be a convenient fig leaf for some very real problems with the state of the Red Sox team, in any event it gives reason to hope that their downward slide will continue.

Everyone knows who the four teams are in the AL, and it’s just a matter of seeding.

Detroit still has a snowball’s chance.

Or that the Sox “choked”, which the record doesn’t support.

Choked?  Nah.  They just came back to earth.

Record by month:

        BOS   NYY
April     16-8   9-14
May     20-8   13-10
June     13-14 16-16
July     15-12 19-9
August   16-13 18-11
September 10-8   13-4

Our buddy Darren over at BTF likes to keep harping on how the shape of the Yankees season creates the illusion that their a plucky underdog that’s overcome tremendous obstacles.  Or as Bivens would say, “the little engine that could.”  Well, if that’s true then it’s also fair to point out that the shape of the Red Sox season creates the illusion that they’re a great team, rather than a solid team that played over their heads for two months.

And of course, the preview looked perfect.  One of these days I’ll have to learn how to format columns in html.

Have to agree with you Larry. The Yankees are about “class” at least that has been Steinbrenner’s hope over the years and it’s hard to argue with the lineage of Gehrig, Dimaggio, Mantle etc. Certainly Jeter, Pettitte, Williams, Posada,Rivera and Torre have represented just that through the 90’s.  I think we fans should be of the same mold.

One of the main reasons why the Red Sox have been struggling of late is because Manny has been out. Notice how they started to struggle immensely right after he went down? If you say he was there for the Yankee stadium series, you’re not all the way right. He only played one game. Yea, they beat teams like Baltimore and Tampa Bay, but because yea, they’re not great teams. Come playoff time, with Manny on their team, it might me more even of a matchup if the Yanks make to the ALCS. But that’s why we watch the games. Go YAnks!

i agree, which is why i find myself every off-season hoping they finally make good on their “promise” to try to trade him.

If it’s not Babe Ruth, I doubt one player can make the Red Sox that much better.

well, he’s not Babe Ruth, but he’s consistently one of the best hitters in baseball and the Red Sox will win more games with Manny than without him.

In an effort to put the cart before the horse, anyone want to guess the Yanks 25-man post season roster?

Villone will probably be there to add some veteran presence, although chances are slim he’ll face any actual batters.

In an effort to put the cart before the horse, anyone want to guess the Yanks 25-man post season roster?

postseason roster discussion

They gotta think seriously about leaving A-Rod off—so unclutch in October.

Seriously now…

Been thinking about October roster for a while.  I think Betemit, Shelley and Minky all make it.  And Molina of course.

I believe that leaves room for12 pitchers.  I have a hunch that, knowing Joe, either Hughes or Kennedy will be there but not both.  There will be some spin about how he wouldn’t want to put a kid in the pressure cooker of coming in the middle innings of a tied playoff game. 

So room for more chewy veterans, including Moose who will be the 4th starter unless his next 2 starts suddenly resemble his August.

There are the obvious locks, plus Edwar and Farnsworth are in.  I see 2 slots up for grabs, and I agree that Villone gets one because no other lefties. 

So then Bruney is #25?  Is Veras even eligible for it?  We’re kind of at the bottom of the barrel, so maybe they’ll realize they’re better off with IPK and King Phil.

Would it make more sense for the Yanks to carry a player who is effectively just a pinch-runner (instead of the 12th pitcher)? 

I don’t even know who we have that can fill that role, but I get scared thinking that they’ll be up with the tying run on 2nd in the ninth and they won’t be able to put anyone faster than Betemit out there to replace a Giambi or Posada.

I believe Alberto Gonzalez has been considered for a spot on the post-season roster precisely because he’s a speedy type.  In fact, he stole 11 of 16 bases this year at Scranton WB - hardly Brett Gardner mind you, but more fleet of foot than Betemit.  As for pitchers, if Kennedy continues to pitch well, I’d rather see him on the roster than Hughes - especially given the latter’s problems in early innings.

and Tampa Bay’s showing against the Angels this week doesn’t bode well for the weekend.

What?  Losing 7-10 is ugly, but then they lost two straight 2-1 games.  That’s pretty good against LA.

Agree with you all on Manny. He makes the Sox far more dangerous. He’s not classy in appearance. I’ll never forget him in LF with a water bottle in his back pocket on a Fox Sat game. He is however a remarkable hitter and a better than average fielder. The day he leaves the Sox, they will miss him.  I do like to see those Sox scuffed up helmets and pajama pants and contrast them with guys like Jeter and A-rod who look nifty in their uniforms.

On another matter. This business recently in the news about the best team having a say on the number of days the playoffs would be held. Was this in the works before the season, as I hadn’t heard about it, or is it something recently decided by MLB?
As far as I’m concerned I have always had an issue with the Wild Card team having it too equal to the winners,and in my opinion this subtle change doesn’t go far enough to counterbalance.  I have always believed the Wild Card team should have to win an extra game to advance in the first round.  I would change the format in the ALDS to a seven game series. (perhaps shorten the regular season to 158 games in addition) Then the WC team would need to win four games to advance, however the division winner would only need three. I would also seed the teams in a fashion that wouldn’t pay respect to whether or not the Wild card team happens to be in the same division with the best record team. Over the recent years anyway, the Sox and Yanks have played the other division winners in the first round. I don’t think it should matter.  I would be interested in what any of you think of this kind of format.

Manny is worst defensive LF in baseball.  If Boston didn’t have Ortiz, he would almost certainly be the team’s DH - which is one reason why it’s ridiculous to say that as the DH, Ortiz doesn’t cost the Sox any runs.  If he could play run of the mill poor defense at 1B, Boston could save plenty of runs by keeping Manny away from the outfield.

As for the Wild Card, I heartily agree with you Joel.  I’ve always thought the non-division winner should begin with a one game disadvantage or, at the very least, only have a single home game in the first round and two in the subsequent rounds.  After all, a team that proves itself over a 162 game schedule deserves more than a measly extra game in their stadium.

Quote of the day, from Joe Sheehan at BaseballProspectus.com:

Dear Everyone North of New Haven:

Shut the hell up.

He goes on to point out that the Sawx have a playoff spot and there’s nothing to worry about, and 2004 (not to mention 1997, 2002, and 2003) proved that “only” being the WC is hardly an impediment to a trophy.

http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=534

If I could choose the Yanks’ postseason roster:

C
1. Jorge Posada
2. Jose Molina

IF
3. Jason Giambi
4. Doug Mientkiewicz
5. Robinson Cano
6. Derek Jeter
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Wilson Betemit

OF
9. Melky Cabrera
10. Hideki Matsui
11. Johnny Damon
12. Bobby Abreu
13. Shelley Duncan

P
14. Chien-Ming Wang
15. Andy Pettitte
16. Mike Mussina
17. Roger Clemens
18. Phil Hughes
19. Ian Kennedy
20. Luis Vizcaino
21. Mariano Rivera
22. Joba Chamberlain
23. Edwar Ramirez
24. Jose Veras

I’m not sure who to give the final spot to, but it’s not a pitcher. Honestly, the only reason they need as many as 11 pitchers is due to the fragility of the starters necessitating two long men in Hughes and IPK. But the likelihood of ever needing the 12th pitcher in your pen in a playoff series is infinitesmal.

Gonzalez, maybe, to use as a pinch runner for Giambi?

Manny is worst defensive LF in baseball.

Disagree; this is a 2001 talking point. Manny’s pretty useful out there, far from the best and not without lapses, but he’s worked hard and gotten better. Surely there’s someone worse.

Manny is a terrible defender, sorry.  Playing LF in Fenway for 1/2 his games masks just how bad he is.  This helps the Red Sox - in fact, I’d argue that they derive more benifit from Manny than any other team would for precisely that reason.  If only there was some sort of equivalent for SS… sigh.

He’s a truly great hitter, though.

About not needing the 12th pitcher: furthermore, not carrying the twelth pitcher reduces the likelyhood of losing a World Series game with the 12th pitcher on the mound to zero, which is a nice bonus.

I’d say yes to Gonzalez - if they are allowed to take him (which I think they are due to Phillips being on the DL).  I’d swap out Veras for Villone however.  I think there is some value to having a lefty on in the pen, and Villone isn’t a bad pitcher, despite his second-half meltdown last year.

Torre would never, ever trust a guy like Veras in the post-season.  He doesn’t even trust him during the regular season unless the Yanks are down by five runs, up by 27 or the rest of the bullpen is unavailable.  Villone will win a spot over him because he is a) left handed b) a veteran and c) Torre vaguely remembers him being effective at some point - even though that was last season.

As for Manny, he has a zone rating of .715 in LF in 2007 and .748 in 6393 innings at the position for his career.  That’s quite wretched by any standard.

As a useful point of comparison, Hideki Matsui’s zone rating for LF thus far this season (sore knees and all) is .843 and he’s hardly a human highlight reel out there.

“furthermore, not carrying the twelth pitcher reduces the likelyhood of losing a World Series game with the 12th pitcher on the mound to zero, which is a nice bonus.”

Does that mean Joe won’t put in Jeff Weaver in the 10th inning this year?

“If Boston didn’t have Ortiz, he [Manny] would almost certainly be the team’s DH - which is one reason why it’s ridiculous to say that as the DH, Ortiz doesn’t cost the Sox any runs.”

Thank you!  Why is this point so difficult for writers (and MVP-voters) to understand?  In the interest of fairness, I should add we can say the same thing (to a less extreme extent) about Giambi; he keeps Matsui in LF, and occupies a spot that would be usefully served to keep Posada, Damon, Jeter, et al fresher.  (That is, when he’s not playing subpar 1b.)

“I believe Alberto Gonzalez has been considered for a spot on the post-season roster precisely because he’s a speedy type.”

That’s really interesting.  Do you remember where you read that?

Except kevin.  And that douchebag at the O’s game.  Screw those two.

Wait, maybe he was Kevin…?

Gonzalez, maybe, to use as a pinch runner for Giambi?

Yes.  But unfortunately it will be Farnsworth.  I just can’t see them admitting a mistake by keeping him off the roster.  It would be great, but I doubt it happens.

In regards to Manny’s LF skills, I remember reading something last year about the Fenway effect on zone rating.  It does depress their zone rating by a substantial amount, hence Manny is somewhere around a -40 or -50 over the course of a season.  That being said, his zone rating for away games wasn’t good either, but it wasn’t as bad as at Fenway.  The conclusion was Manny was bad, but not as bad as he looks.  I wish I could remember where I saw that.

Manny is bad, perhaps not as bad as he looks, but he’s the worst there is defensively in terms of major league left fielders.  I’d even prefer slo-mo Matt Stairs out there.

As for the ex AG appearing on the playoff roster as a pinch runner, I believe I heard something to that effect either on the television or radio.  In other words, the idea is nothing more than idle hearsay at this point but I wouldn’t discount his being included on the roster.  On the other hand, if the Yanks were looking for a speedy pinch runner for the post-season, perhaps they should have brought up Brett Gardner on September 1st and tried him out in a few situations.  He’s rated an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale for speed and is a proven base-stealer.  I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see at this point.

i believe you are right.  i think it is because ZR counts balls off the Monster as part of Manny’s “zone”.

as for the last roster spot or two, the Yankees success in the postseason is going to depends about 99% on the starting 9, the starting pitchers (including Hughes and/or Kennedy), Joba, Viz, and Mo.  that’s it. 

if the yankees find Villone pitching in a key spot, things have probably gone badly for them.

i think it is because ZR counts balls off the Monster as part of Manny’s “zone”.

This is what doesn’t make sense to me .. I thought ZR was based on plays that a player makes that an average player would make 50% of the time. Unless Shaq is playing 81 games at Fenway, there’s no way anyone is getting to any of those balls, so they shouldn’t count.  Obviously there’s someone at the end of this who actually records it right? What kind of a dolt gives Manny’z ZR and O-fer on a ball 15 feet up the monster?

Yeah, I’m pretty sure it’s because of the balls off the wall, which doesn’t make sense to me.  Why would you count balls that no human being could possibly get to as part of the LF “zone”?  It’s just 2 or three people at each game who are recording data, right?  Why do they have to count those as part of the zone?

Drat, didn’t refresh soon enough.

“if the yankees find Villone pitching in a key spot, things have probably gone badly for them.”

See: Weaver, Jeff.  I don’t want useless relievers on the roster because I fear Joe will use them.

As for the weaknesses of ZR - you do not need ZR to know that Manny is a terrible fielder.  Can you look at his ZR in away games?  That would weed out the Fenway effect on ZR.

He benifits from Fenway b/c LF at Fenway is tiny.  His lack of range and/or hussle and weak arm are less damaging there then they would be if he played his home games at, say, Yankee Stadium.

Obviously there’s someone at the end of this who actually records it right? What kind of a dolt gives Manny’z ZR and O-fer on a ball 15 feet up the monster?

this could have just been a quirk that has since been corrected.  SG would know better than me.

As for the weaknesses of ZR - you do not need ZR to know that Manny is a terrible fielder.  Can you look at his ZR in away games?  That would weed out the Fenway effect on ZR.

i don’t think anyone is denying that he is bad, just that the numbers that were widely discussed a few years ago, i.e. -40/-50 runs, were flawed.  no one thinks he is great, just that he still wears a glove and catches balls that are hit within a reasonable distance from him, so he can’t be THAT bad.

Seattle Sox fan contested that he was the worst… and in fairness, “the worst LF in baseball” could be overstating his suckitude.  But then there was the bit about how “Manny’s pretty useful out there, far from the best and not without lapses, but he’s worked hard and gotten better” - and that I felt the need to stomp on.

I believe Manny was listed as having the worst ZR in left field in all of the majors at -14 at mid June.  I think Ibanez was up there at -11.  I’m not sure who else was up there.

Yeah, Fenway has a goofy park factor for ZR.  They count balls off the wall as fieldable since they are fieldable in other parks.

Here’s what ZR says for LFs for runs saved per 162 games:
Ramirez, Manny   Bos   -47
Ibanez, Raul   Sea   -34
Lee, Carlos   Hou   -24
Bay, Jason   Pit   -13
Burrell, Pat   Phi   -15
Willingham, J   Fla   -10
Bonds, Barry   SF   -14
Alou, Moises   NYM   -13

I don’t have time to do the splits now, but last time I did Manny’s road ZR was closer to -20 than -50, so I think Ibanez probably has the title for worst LF right now.

Wow, there are a lot of shitty left fielders.

And none of them are Matsui!

Hmmm, I wonder if this (all the way below average LFers) is a case of Holliday, Byrnes and Crawford fucking up the curve. Two of those guys should be CFers.

Hmmm, I wonder if this (all the way below average LFers) is a case of Holliday, Byrnes and Crawford fucking up the curve

Ineteresting idea, I never thought about this.  Here are the average ZRs since 2002 for AL and NL LF.

YEAR   LG   POS   ZR
2002   AL   LF   .872
2003   AL   LF   .876
2004   AL   LF   .863
2005   AL   LF   .860
2006   AL   LF   .850
2007   AL   LF   .865

YEAR   LG   POS   ZR
2002   NL   LF   .869
2003   NL   LF   .865
2004   NL   LF   .861
2005   NL   LF   .866
2006   NL   LF   .862
2007   NL   LF   .868

is ohlendorf ineligible for the postseason?

Terry Francona says he’s going to “straighten out” Okie and Gagne (whoever those people are).
What does that mean?
Torture?

probably the rack.

according to lohud ian kennedy’s missing his start tomorrow due to a sore back.

in lighter news we’ve finally surpassed the red sox in the power rankings! woohoo! there’s one week of rankings left and i’d love to get that top spot.