Could this pave the way for a trade of Melky Cabrera or TSBG? Maybe.

They’d have to sign a LFer first.

I’ve never seen Hoffmann play; I’m kind of curious about his defense.  If he has a solid glove, he could be quite an effective bench player.

They’d have to sign a LFer first.

Matt Holliday is a LFer.

Gardner for Farnsworth?

I know this is a joke, but if you are getting the Royals to the table, you’ve got to try to come back with DeJesus.

I thought acquiring DeJesus was part of the joke.

I’ve never seen Hoffmann play; I’m kind of curious about his defense.

Somebody posted somebody reporting that somebody said he was the best defensive player in the Dodgers system.

I’ve never seen Hoffmann play; I’m kind of curious about his defense.  If he has a solid glove, he could be quite an effective bench player.

Before this site became RLJNPHPW, I saw this posted here:

Ok, Chad Jennings to the rescue:

“Defense: Baseball America rated Hoffmann as the best defensive player in the Dodgers system, above average across the board. He’s played 325 minor league games in center field, 258 in right and 13 in left. He was primarily a center fielder during his time in Triple-A. Baseball America notes that he “gets good jumps and runs good routes.””

Holliday/Granderson/Swisher with TSBG and Hoffman on the bench would be a nice little OF to put together. Two guys on the bench who can play D, have good arms, one being a RHH and one being a LHH, just imagine how excited the magic binder will be.

So, do we basically have a poor man’s Jerry Hairston, Jr. here?

Does Hoffmann really have more upside then Bruney?  I imagine Bruney’s 80 percentile figures were quite good.  It wasn’t that long ago, last spring that Bruney was out lights out setup man.

[8] I don’t think this kid can play the IF, can he?

CHONE has Hairston at .251/.315/.376 for 2010.  CAIRO projects .242/.317/.361 from Hoffmann.  Hairston plays a good 2B/3B/Corner OF and can manage SS or CF.  Hoffman can play all three OF positions… allegedly well (including center?).

[10] Hence “poor man’s.”  That’s about the difference between them.  That, and age.

[8] I don’t think this kid can play the IF, can he?

And Pettitte’s response would be?

To be fair, Hairston has no value as a “lefty masher” because he has no platoon split (career .708 OPS vs LHP, .697 vs RHP, in enough PAs to have at least some confidence in those numbers).  Maybe Hoffman does, though the available data doesn’t really support it.

Does Hoffmann really have more upside then Bruney?  I imagine Bruney’s 80 percentile figures were quite good.  It wasn’t that long ago, last spring that Bruney was out lights out setup man.

Yeah, Bruney’s 80% forecast was very good.  77 IP, 58 H, 6 HR, 37 BBs, 77 K, 3.09 ERA.  But you can’t really look at it like Bruney > Hoffmann.  You should look at the gap between Bruney and his replacement compared to the gap between Hoffmann and whomever would have been in his place.

[9] The Yankees have any number of minor league arms who could easily replace Bruney.  They have no right-handed hitting backup OFers who are close to being MLB ready.

Can’t Hoffman be hyped up too to make him a good trade chip?

[12] Hairston, to me, was valuable because he could play every position and not be an automatic out. I actually looked at him as more of an infielder than an outfielder.

Can they trade him?  I’m not clear on all the rules on the Rule 5.

Does Hoffmann really have more upside then Bruney?

Hoffman will make a couple million dollars less, and if they sign a LF, allow them to trade Melky which saves another couple million. Every million saved goes into a jar marked “Holliday Fund”.

This quote may reflect roster construction remorse, or it could be an apt assessment:

A second Dodger executive said, “Unless they can fix his swing, he will not be able to stick (with the Yankees).”

Hairston, to me, was valuable because he could play every position and not be an automatic out.

Agreed.  I liked having him on the roster.  That said, with Ramiro Pena around, maybe the Yankees figure having Hairston is overkill (if they’re high on Pena, they may not want to “block” him with Hairston).  Pena + Hoffman = Hairston, or maybe > Hairston.  Maybe.  But then it eats up 2 roster spots instead of just 1.

So… I don’t know that I get it.

I’m actually fine with a 1 to 1, Pena for Hairston replacement. I was just guessing as to why referring to Hoffman as a ‘poor man’s Hairston’ didn’t make sense to me - Hoffman doesn’t play the IF.

If there is any chance that Hairston could play the OF, I don’t want him back.

Can they trade him?  I’m not clear on all the rules on the Rule 5.

Yes they can but his Rule 5 status stays with him, so he has to stay on that team’s 25 man roster all season or be offered back to the Dodgers.

A second Dodger executive said, “Unless they can fix his swing, he will not be able to stick (with the Yankees). Also, I can’t believe we are paying Juan Pierre $18.5M over the next two seasons.”

Fixed.

I came up with the comparison when I saw CAIRO’s projection for Hoffmann, so it was entirely about their hitting (I looked up Hairston’s CHONE projection after I made the comparison, btw.  Yay me.)

I saw similarities b/c they’re both bench players whose value comes in no small part due to their ability to play multiple positions.  Obviously the analogy is imperfect b/c Hairston can play the IF (making him the more useful utility man).  Which is why I qualified it.

My point is that the team just picked up a less useful Hairston Jr.  I’ve put the “lefty mashing caddy for Granderson” dream to bed.

Good Bruney would not be so easily replaced.  Bad Bruney would.  I wouldn’t have traded Bruney for Hoffmann but maybe Cash and the scouts see something or they have someone juicy lined up for a Melky trade.

Y’all should check out KC’s current CF depth chart.  TSBG would be a huge upgrade.

So how well does the oft-pined for David DeJesus project, and how much more than TSBG would it take to get him?

For those who care, DeJesus is owed $4.7M for 2010, with a $6M option/$0.5M buyout for 2011.  He put up a defense-heavy 3.2 WAR last season and an offense-heavy 2.7 WAR the year before.

That’s not a very impressive set of projections, although the 80% projection would be pretty nice.

A .305 wOBA (and this isn’t including SB right?) isn’t really that bad for a good defensive 5th OF, is it?  Especially if in September/October it keeps them from having Juan Guzman on the roster?

It looks like the worst-case is this will end up as the Yankees non-tendering Bruney, which there was some support for anyway.  Average-case he’s a 5th OF that allows them to PH/PR for other OF, especially if Melky/Gardner is the starting LF.  Best case the Yankees traded Brian Bruney for an average LF making the league minimum.

CHONE has DeJesus at .277/.349/.408 with +8 defense.  Nothing terribly exciting there.  Even if you give him a small power bump for DNYS, I don’t think that gets it done.

Melky’s 2010 CHONE: .284/.349/.427 with -1 (CF) defense.

[27] It’ll cost you $2M to find out if you’re getting good Bruney or bad Bruney.  It costs $400K to replace him with Melancon.  This site spilled billions of electrons demanding more innings for Melancon last season.  Keeping Bruney would have made more innings for Melancon in 2010 significantly less likely.

Y’all should check out KC’s current <strike>CF</strike> depth chart.  <strike>TSBG</strike> Almost anyone at any position other than #1 SP would be a huge upgrade.

Fixed.

My thought on DeJesus is that he would be better than Melky (though CHONE appears to disagree), but not by a whole helluva lot.  If you can turn Brett Gardner into him, I guess…

[32] As much fun as it is to bag on the Royals, the fact is that they could easily downgrade at 1B or 2B for instance.  And I won’t mention closer because I’m sure that Soria just slipped your mind.

If you can turn Brett Gardner into him, I guess…

David DeJesus 2009 wOBA (FanGraphs): .337
Brett Gardner 2009 wOBA: .337

[35]
Very nice, Mike K.

Melky’s 2010 CHONE: .284/.349/.427 with -1 (CF) defense.

We’ve liked DeJesus long enough for Melky to basically become almost as good as him. I said this before, but I’d bet Melky projects as a league average LFer.

David DeJesus 2009 wOBA (FanGraphs): .337
Brett Gardner 2009 wOBA: .337

FWIW,

David DeJesus 2009 PA’s: 627
Brett Gardner 2009 PA’s: 284

“Brett Gardner 2009 PA’s: 284”

Yep, that’s something I think the Yankees did wrong last year.

[35] One, I was trying to be charitable to the “trade for DeJesus” idea.  Two, Gardner did what he did in limited playing time.  It’s hard to say what he would do with more PAs.  FWIW, CHONE has him projected for a ~.350 OBP with a ~.385 SLG.  If he does that and continues to play ridiculous defense & run the bases well, he’s valueable.  Probably more valueable than David DeJesus…

So anyway, yeah, um, maybe we should scratch the whole DeJesus thing.

All in favor?

Very nice, Mike K.

I try

For completeness, CHONE has DeJesus at a .757 OPS, and 6 of 12 in SB.  Gardner at .726 and 29 of 36 in SB.  Apparentley a 3 run difference, and I’d have to think they’d be similar in defense in LF.  So I’m not sure why you’d want to give up Gardner+ something else and pay another $5M to get .3 wins better and 4 years older.

I’m not against getting DeJesus, but not sure if I want to give up any position players who should be on the roster next year, or any pitcher beyond a reliever.

Gardner & DeJesus project to have basically the same OBP.  Gardner > DeJesus on the bases and in the field.  Gardner makes the minimum.  DeJesus has a little more power, but nothing to write home about.

This really is a no-brainer, huh?

“So I’m not sure why you’d want to give up Gardner+ something else and pay another $5M to get .3 wins better and 4 years older.”

Because the Yankees can always find another $5 for free?

Well, because DeJesus is less of a risk to turn into a pumpkin.

[41] Aye. But we will NEVER give up on the Nick Johnson dream.

[40] Yeah, I know there are sample-size issues, and we’re not sure what Gardner would do with more PA.  I’m just not sure if at this point trading Gardner for DeJesus is much more than swapping your black cell phone because you like the blue better.  May make you feel better, but is it really worth a 5$ service charge?

[45] Not until his OBP drops below 400, anyway…

[44] Is that risk reduction worth $5M? For another $10M above that they could remove almost all risk, and get a significantly better LF.

[44] Hey, whose side are you on anyway!

One of the RAB guys on TSBG:

“Gardner was hot in May and June, then didn’t get as much playing time after that because of his injury and stuff. Remember that 5 for 5 game against the Mets? He had like, a .580 OPS after that. I’m convinced that if he stayed healthy and played regularly, his line would have been much worse. [...] Again, if he plays every single day, I bet he’s more like a 1.5-2 win player. His defensive numbers are a pretty small sample, you need like 3 years of data for UZR to really be indicative of anything.”

[49] I think the Yankees should have started Gardner all year last year modulo his injury (if it happens), in which case they’d have a better measurement.  And I’d start him in CF in 2010 with Melky or whoever as 4th outfielder/back-up LF.  But I don’t know what a 1-windownside risk at the 30% or whatever it is level (here one needs to look at the relative DeJesus downside to get the correct estimate) is worth to them.

Yep, that’s something I think the Yankees did wrong last year.

Ahh, geez.  They gave him the job out of ST.  Then he sucked, so they benched him.  Then he worked his way back into the mix and did well.  Then he got hurt.

How is that something that the team did wrong?

Anyway, let me rephrase [28]: what would the Royals have to add to DeJesus to pry TSBG away from the Yankees?

[52] I assume “DeJesus’s salary” doesn’t get it done, because the reason KC would make such a move is to save money.

I don’t know KC’s system at all.

“Then he sucked, so they benched him.”

SSS, excludes D.

Then after he came back from the injury he didn’t get the job back (here I assume he was 100%) (admittedly only an extra 50 or so regular season ABs).

[53] This is Sickels take on the prospects: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/30/1108490/top-20-kansas-city-royals

I don’t think we need the stats to evaluate Gardner’s D.

His shockingly fast.  He gets to balls where all I’m thinking is double or triple.

He’d have to have awful outfield instinct not to be very good with that speed, and his instinct seem fine.

In this case the SSS just confirms what we can tell just by looking.  He’s a wonderful CF.

If we could put a big bat at DH (Dunn?), I wouldn’t mind giving him CF against RHP, and putting Granderson in LF.  That would be a sweet defensive outfield.

SSS, excludes D.

Rookies who OPS .525 out of the gate get some time off, no matter how good their D is.  That’s just the way things are, it is not a Yankee failing.  And despite this well-earned time off, they still managed to find 120 PA for him in May and June.  He was tailing off badly before he got hurt in July.  He didn’t have the job at that point, so why should he have automatically gotten it back.  Also, his performance in September indicates that your assumption about his being 100% may not be valid.

He missed around a quarter of the season.  If he hadn’t gotten hurt, he’d have had close to 400 PA.  I don’t really see the case that he’s more than a 400 PA player on a team like the 2009 Yankees.

It would sure be nice for whichever team Gardner plays for if he gets his FB% around 25, rather than above 30.

[58] Yeah, but the thing is that opposing pitchers are almost certainly trying to get him to hit the ball in the air.  I mean, wouldn’t you?

I thought they were trying to knock the bat out of his hands.

[60] I realize that’s joke, but how do you knock the bat out of somebody’s hands?  High heat.  And how do you get somebody to hit the ball in the air?

He put up a 2.1 WAR in 280 PA.  400 PA puts him at an extra win at that rate.  Swisher put up a 3.5 WAR in 600 PA.

Re out-of-the-gate and tailing, the Yankees were going to go with Melky as an alternative, not an especially tempting option, and either one believes in making a decision and waiting for a large enough sample to readjust or not.  Plus as far as I know his defensive contribution was steady.

I guess really one ought to use the reweighted pre-season projection in the above.  Maybe that’s relevant for out-of-the-gate, assuming the team is consistent about ST data.  But as noted earlier, CHONE has Gardner at 0.353/0.380, or a smidge better than last year, so here I still get to complain about post-injury (modulo medical info we don’t know).

“High heat”

Hmm, there’s no such category at Fangraphs at least, but it looks to me like Gardner’s performance as a function of pitch type was flat.

His walk rate was a bit above average (and rose during the year, pre-injury - shades of the ratchet), so I imagine he’s got good pitch recognition as he probably gets a high rate of pitches in the zone (yes, I can probably find this # on fangraphs or somewhere).

400 PA puts him at an extra win at that rate.

Yes, assuming that he maintains his rates.  Remember too, that Swisher was also supposed to be sharing a job at the outset.  He got more PT than initially planned because another guy got hurt.  Gardner got less PT than initially planned because he got hurt.

the Yankees were going to go with Melky as an alternative, not an especially tempting option,

Except for all those walk-off hits Cabrera starting piling up once he got into the lineup.  In all seriousness though, these two guys shared a job and they both did well.  What’s the complaint here?

and either one believes in making a decision and waiting for a large enough sample to readjust or not

But in the real world of major league baseball, achieving statistically significant sample sizes is not a goal that is particularly high on the priority list.  If you were watching Gardner’s April, there was a lot not to like.  And ample reason to give the other guy a few games out there.

I want very badly for us all to give up the dream about all the players on the All-RLYW Acquisition Team.  DeJesus first, then the catcher (Saltamacchia).  I’ll let the rest of you pick the rest of the process.

But I will never stop talking about the decision to not sign Betran the Pavano/Wright/Womack offseason.

I don’t think we need the stats to evaluate Gardner’s D. His shockingly fast.  He gets to balls where all I’m thinking is double or triple.

This is not a comment about Gardner at all, but: it is this kind of thinking that reveals exactly why you need defensive metrics.  It is the kind of thinking that John Sterling has been using to analyze defense for 20 years.

He put up a 2.1 WAR in 280 PA.

A lot of that was defense, which you have to assume will regress a bit.  Plus he cheated a little to get that WAR/PA, since he was used as a defensive replacement.

there’s no such category at Fangraphs at least

I hope you realize that this is more apt as a criticism of Fangraphs than anything else.  Pitch location data is as available as pitch type data, and we certainly don’t disbelieve that pitchers try to put pitches in specific locations that are thought to represent areas of weakness for hitters.  And that those thoughts about the areas of weakness are based on data.

“This is not a comment about Gardner at all, but: it is this kind of thinking that reveals exactly why you need defensive metrics.  It is the kind of thinking that John Sterling has been using to analyze defense for 20 years.”

If one has a sensible grasp of the “double or triple” zone and sees a sizable sample of OOZ catches, isn’t that a pretty good proxy for UZR, esp. coupled with “doesn’t obviously miss much in-zone”?

“Plus he cheated a little to get that WAR/PA, since he was used as a defensive replacement.”

Very good point.  I’ve ignored that.

“A lot of that was defense, which you have to assume will regress a bit”

Wny?  AFAIK there’s no reason from his MiL or ML performances to think he’s not what he appears on defense.  Maybe I could agree to him being regressed towards other extremely fast players, but how big an effect would that be?

“I hope you realize that this is more apt as a criticism of Fangraphs than anything else”

Wasn’t intended as a criticism of anything, I just tried to get some data to see if I could support or counter your claim and didn’t find it.

It is the kind of thinking that John Sterling has been using to analyze defense for 20 years.

Sterling has the best defensive analysis system. He assumes on contact that EVERY ball is leaving the park, anything that doesn’t MUST have been due to a spectacular gold glove caliber defensive play. Therefore every defender is automatically a plus defender.

Plus he cheated a little to get that WAR/PA, since he was used as a defensive replacement.

Good point.  Let’s see… 2.4 runs on offense in 284 PA and 7.2 runs on defense in 628.2 innings… that’s 5.1 runs in 600 PA and 15.5 runs in 1350 innings… with prorated replacement and positional adjustments… makes Gardner about a 4.3 WAR player in 150 games.  So it doesn’t look like the “cheating” really amounts to all that much.

Now, contrary to popular opinion around here, I actually like the kid.  But I’ll wager a six-pack of a good brew that anybody who gives Brett Gardner 600 PA in a season will get less than 4.3 WAR for their trouble.

“This is not a comment about Gardner at all, but: it is this kind of thinking that reveals exactly why you need defensive metrics.  It is the kind of thinking that John Sterling has been using to analyze defense for 20 years.”

I disagree.

“If one has a sensible grasp of the “double or triple” zone and sees a sizable sample of OOZ catches, isn’t that a pretty good proxy for UZR, esp. coupled with “doesn’t obviously miss much in-zone”? “

And agree with this.

When you see a guy getting to numerous balls that no one gets to, and he doesn’t miss easy plays, you can be pretty damn sure he’s excellent.

I’m as big a stat guys as anybody, but sometimes you learn a lot by just watching.

Gardner is among the fastest players in MLB (maybe the fastest) and we can see that from both D and SB/baserunning.  As long as he’s getting decent jumps, he’s going to be good.

And when you see him take away many XBH’s on WTF kind of plays, you know he’s getting good jumps.

People knew what a great CF looked like before they had defensive stats.  Defensive stats uncover the guy who looks smooth but lacks range.  Great range everyone can see.

Wny?  AFAIK there’s no reason from his MiL or ML performances to think he’s not what he appears on defense.  Maybe I could agree to him being regressed towards other extremely fast players, but how big an effect would that be?

Why?  Because all the defensive data we have points to high volatility in defensive value (if not actual performance or ability, due to eg BIP distribution issues).  Even the people who develop defensive evaluation systems for a living advise regressing a lot when projecting defense.

“Now, contrary to popular opinion around here, I actually like the kid.  But I’ll wager a six-pack of a good brew that anybody who gives Brett Gardner 600 PA in a season will get less than 4.3 WAR for their trouble”

I agree.  I’m pretty sure he needs to be platooned.

But I think he can give you a good 2.5 WAR in about 450 PAs.

Gardner is a very good defensive CFer.  However, projecting his defense would no doubt involve regressing his career UZR numbers back towards average.  The resulting projection would still be quite good.

2.5 WAR in about 450 PAs.

Possible (pig).  It’s conceiveable (you miserable vomitus mass). 

As a CFer, anyway.  I’m not sure you get as much out of him defensively in LF.

[76] You get dinged on the positional adjustment too.

“Why?  Because all the defensive data we have points to high volatility in defensive value (if not actual performance or ability, due to eg BIP distribution issues).  Even the people who develop defensive evaluation systems for a living advise regressing a lot when projecting defense.”

Sure, but there’s the extra data point that he’s VVS.  Say you regress 50% of his defense to that of say just VS guys, does that make a big difference?  (Here I didn’t mean that VVS isn’t VS, a la this cleverness [warning, vaguely political].)

I’m certainly not disputing one needs large statistical error bars and larger systematic ones than for offensive metrics.

[69 and 72] 

I was taking issue with any degree of certainty assigned to the “all I’m thinking is double or triple” line of thinking in the original post. 

I don’t care how keen an observer someone is, how much baseball someone watches, and how much someone claims to know because he or she actually watches the games; individual observation will lead to assumptions that will prove to be false.  And although defensive metrics, of all imperfect metrics, are likely the most imperfect of all, I believe that personal observation of defense is likely the most imperfect of personal observation (compared with hitting and pitching).  This is because of a number of factors, including the very basic one that at the start of a play (ball hitting bat), almost no one in the ballpark has an eye on the fielder who will make the play.  (Yes, I realize that this is not as applicable to the assessment of Gardner, which is why I said so in the original post.)

Didn’t they use Melky against lefties? I know TSBG is the designated lefty-basher off the bench and all, but he probably would’ve done worse if they’d put him in those games.

So now it’s TVVSBG, eh?  I’d prefer a nice VSOP.

So it doesn’t look like the “cheating” really amounts to all that much.

yeah, I would have been surprised if it was more than a couple of runs.  and technically you need to look at defensive games rather than innings, but innings are (well, I would think) an unbiased estimator of defensive games, so that doesn’t have the same problem as PAs.

somewhat tangentially, Gardner had 9.43 innings per defensive game last year, while MLB (CFers) had an average of 8.81 inn/DG.  (Yankee CFers had 9.24).  I’m not sure how meaningful this is, but I think it suggests that Gardner saw fewer chances than could be expected.

What’s a defensive game?  I usually give up after two cursory googles.

I assume it’s probably a unit of playing time that corresponds to the number of chances that an average player at that position receives.

Over the course of an average 9 inning game. Somebody correct me if I’m wrong.

[83] I´d guess LIDR = more innings with Mariano and Hughes pitching = less and more easy chances in cf? Also, we had a lot of high strikout pitchers lets season, no?

via MLBTR:

Given Roy Halladay’s injury history, Gammons said “it would be a disaster” for Boston to trade Casey Kelly and Clay Buchholz for Halladay and sign the Toronto ace to a long-term contract.

Roy Halladay has made 128 starts and thrown 930 innings over the past four seasons.  That’s an average of 32 starts and 233 IP per season.  Now, I happen be a very firm believer in the notion that every pitcher has an “injury history,” but come on.

Fgas, if you’re here, props on that finale. I have never seen a better episode of reality TV ever.

Gammons must’ve meant injury future, which only he can see.

That, and he’s bargaining on Boston’s behalf.

Fgas, if you’re here, props on that finale. I have never seen a better episode of reality TV ever.

Who won? I guess I could google that, but was it deserved?

I thought it was deserved, especially considering you’re judged on that day’s food only. Any of the top 4 couldve won IMO, which makes up for Hosea.

Also- please tell me the brothers legitimately got there, and you guys weren’t just trying to squeeze as much competition out of them as possible.

That, and he’s bargaining on Boston’s behalf.

Right.  My point is that he’s doing a pretty poor job of it.

[92] I fell asleep right before they went to the judges table…....... who won?

If Hoffman sticks with the Yanks, he has to play regularly.  Otherwise, he won’t develop.  The numbers suggest that he might hit lefties better than Granderson.  For these two reasons, I believe he should platoon with Granderson in center field.

Thanks yankz!

It happened as you saw.  Kevin could definitely have won if he’d had his best day, but he didn’t.  Kevin won a lot of Quickfires and Elimination Challenges, but they’re not supposed to judge on the whole season, just that day. 

I thought it was the best episode of a competition show I’ve ever worked on so I’m glad you liked it too.

The brothers are very, very legit.  But Kevin and Jennifer are too.  They are all really good chefs.

I finally switched from aol to gmail today.  I’m afraid there’s some sort of unpleasant adjustment coming, like I went from the NL to the AL.

I think that given Gammons’ injury history, it may be a disaster for NESN to sign him long-term.

*SPOILER*

Michael, the younger brother, won. It was actually really damn touching. Worth seeing the last 5 minutes.

[88] Gammons is just trying to talk down Doc’s price for the Sox. He is trying to help them land Doc without giving up Kelly or Clay, and then be able to sign him to a Wakefield-type contract extension. Then he will over-hype Kelly further so they can trade him for Adrian Gonzalez. They will hold onto Clay through all this and have this rotation:
Ace #1 (Beckett)
Ace #2 (Lester)
Ace #3 (Doc)
Ace #4 (Clay)
Ace #5 (Wakefield)